SWODY1
SPC AC 191226
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0726 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2010
VALID 191300Z - 201200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
THIS FEATURE WILL ROTATE ACROSS KS/OK AND INTO THE MS VALLEY LATER
TONIGHT. INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS
RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER KS/OK/AR.
THIS ACTIVITY IS ELEVATED AND WELL NORTH OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TX. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
AGREEMENT THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES. INCREASING DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR COUPLED
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WILL PROMOTE A FEW STRONGER STORMS
FROM PARTS OF AR/LA INTO TX...WITH HAIL AND GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE.
...SOUTHERN CA...
A STRONG UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CA IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY BY THIS EVENING. A POCKET OF COOL MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL HELP TO STEEPEN MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND YIELD POCKETS OF MARGINAL AFTERNOON/EVENING
INSTABILITY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN CA AND NORTHWEST MEXICO...AND
INCREASE THE ODDS OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. STRENGTHENING MID
LEVEL WIND FIELDS OVER THIS AREA WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO.
..HART/ROGERS.. 10/19/2010
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