KKEY [290340]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 290340
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1140 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1011 PM TROPICAL STORM LONG KEY 24.82N 80.83W
09/28/2010 MIDDLE KEYS IN MON FL MESONET

THE C-WOP STATION AT LONG KEY REPORTED A GUST OF 40 MPH.
THIS WAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RAIN SQUAL MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA.

&&

$$

WHOVORKA

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KMLB [290147]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMLB 290147
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
947 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0905 PM TSTM WND GST 2 WSW PLAYALINDA BEACH 28.63N 80.66W
09/28/2010 M44.00 MPH BREVARD FL OTHER FEDERAL

KSC WIND TOWER REPORTED 38KT/44MPH WIND GUST AT 54 FT
HEIGHT.

0915 PM TSTM WND GST 3 E HAULOVER CANAL 28.74N 80.70W
09/28/2010 M44.00 MPH BREVARD FL OTHER FEDERAL

KSC WIND TOWER MEASURED 38KT/44MPH WIND GUST AT 54 FT
HEIGHT.

&&

$$

ARB

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 290059
SWODY1
SPC AC 290058

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT TUE SEP 28 2010

VALID 290100Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE UPPER KEYS AND
SOUTHEAST FL...

...SYNOPSIS...
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSES SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO SRN QUEBEC WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWD
THROUGH ERN NY/PA TO FAR ERN NC...AND THEN SWWD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
SC/GA COASTS INTO NWRN FL. THE NRN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE ENEWD OVERNIGHT AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND
ALSO OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE SRN EXTENT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVERNIGHT INVOF THE COASTS OF NC/SC/GA...WITH CONVERGENCE
INCREASING ALONG THIS PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS OFF
THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST BACK TO SELY AND STRENGTHEN SOME BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AND THE NWD MOVING TD 16.

...SE FL/KEYS...
21Z NHC GUIDANCE/FORECAST FOR TD 16 INDICATED THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE
CENTERED IN THE FL STRAITS AT 12Z WEDNESDAY...APPROACHING THE UPPER
FL KEYS/SRN TIP OF FL AS A TROPICAL STORM. GIVEN THIS TRACK...THE
CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK /5 PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY/ HAS BEEN
REDUCED SOME IN OVERALL AREA ACROSS SERN FL. THE APPROACH OF THIS
TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUCH
THAT LOW LEVEL ROTATION COUPLETS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD 12Z WITH
ANY OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDS APPROACHING THE UPPER KEYS/SERN FL.

MEANWHILE...THE 2 PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY HAS BEEN SHIFTED NWD
SOME /FMY-MLB/ FOR A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT AS A FEW ADDITIONAL
STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE YET THIS EVENING ALONG A SW-NE ORIENTED
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SW TO EAST CENTRAL FL PENINSULA.

...NERN STATES...
THE DEEPER PLUME OF MOISTURE /PW VALUES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES/ IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND. OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
/IN THE FORM OF STRONGER WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREATS/
WILL DIMINISH AS THE CORE OF THE LLJ TRANSLATES NEWD AWAY FROM THIS
REGION AND THE ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEAKENS OVER SRN QUEBEC.

HOWEVER...THE 01Z OUTLOOK WILL KEEP AT LEAST LOW SEVERE WIND AND
TORNADO PROBABILITIES...5 PERCENT AND 2 PERCENT RESPECTIVELY...
ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND. THE MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO SERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE MUCAPE 500-1000 J/KG MAY SUPPORT
A FEW ADDITIONAL SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENTS...WHILE THE
MARGINAL WIND THREAT WILL EXTEND FROM SERN NEW ENGLAND TO VT/NH.
WSR-88D VADS OVER SERN NEW ENGLAND TO SRN ME SHOWED SLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS REMAIN AROUND 40 KT...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING THESE
SPEEDS SHOULD NOT DIMINISH UNTIL LATE EVENING. THUS...THE ATTENDANT
LOW LEVEL SPEED SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
TORNADO AND/OR STRONG WIND GUST THROUGH ABOUT 04Z.

..PETERS.. 09/29/2010

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KMFL [290011]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 290011
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
811 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0535 PM WATER SPOUT HOMESTEAD 25.48N 80.47W
09/28/2010 MIAMI-DADE FL BROADCAST MEDIA

MEDIA REPORTED A WATERSPOUT 4 MILES EAST OF HOMESTEAD.

0615 PM FLOOD NAPLES 26.14N 81.80W
09/28/2010 COLLIER FL TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED ROADS FLOODED IN NAPLES...10TH
ST SOUTH AND GULFSHORE DRIVE.

&&

$$

RIVERA

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KMLB [282322]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMLB 282322
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
722 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 WNW COCOA 28.39N 80.78W
09/28/2010 M5.63 INCH BREVARD FL PUBLIC

COCORAHS OBSERVER REPORTED 5.63 INCHES OF RAIN AND MINOR
FLOODING.

0330 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 WNW COCOA 28.40N 80.81W
09/28/2010 M6.48 INCH BREVARD FL TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED 6.48 INCHES OF RAIN.

0428 PM TSTM WND GST 3 ESE LAKE GRIFFIN 28.82N 81.81W
09/28/2010 M39.00 MPH LAKE FL ASOS

KLEE MEASURED 34KT/39MPH WIND GUST.

&&

$$

ARB

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KKEY [282228]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 282228
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
628 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0322 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 6 SSW MARATHON 24.63N 81.12W
09/28/2010 M45.00 MPH GMZ053 FL C-MAN STATION

A SOUTHEAST WIND GUST OF 39 KNOTS...45 MPH...WAS RECORDED
AT THE AUTOMATED WEATHER STATION AT SOMBRERO KEY
LIGHTHOUSE DURING A THUNDERSTORM.

0417 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 6 SSW MARATHON 24.63N 81.12W
09/28/2010 M45.00 MPH GMZ053 FL C-MAN STATION

A SOUTHEAST WIND GUST OF 39 KNOTS...45 MPH...WAS RECORDED
AT THE AUTOMATED WEATHER STATION AT SOMBRERO KEY
LIGHTHOUSE DURING A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

$$

KASPER

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KGSP [282204]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 282204
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
604 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1105 PM TORNADO 4 SW MORGANTON 35.70N 81.75W
09/27/2010 BURKE NC NWS STORM SURVEY

TORNADO VERIFIED BY NWS STORM SURVEY TEAM. STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE TO APPROXIMATELY 8 HOMES. TREES FELLED OR SNAPPED.
DEBRIS THROWN DURING STORM.

&&

$$

ARK

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch - Number 686

WWUS20 KWNS 282203
SEL6
SPC WW 282203
CTZ000-MAZ000-NJZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-CWZ000-282200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH - NUMBER 686
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
603 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 686 ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT FOR PORTIONS OF

CONNECTICUT
MASSACHUSETTS
NEW JERSEY
NEW YORK
PENNSYLVANIA
COASTAL WATERS

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KMFL [282136]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 282136
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
536 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0535 PM FUNNEL CLOUD HOMESTEAD 25.48N 80.47W
09/28/2010 MIAMI-DADE FL NWS EMPLOYEE

NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED FUNNEL CLOUDS EAST OF HOMESTEAD

&&

$$

RIVERA

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KDTX [282124]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDTX 282124
LSRDTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
524 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 PM HEAVY RAIN ARMADA 42.84N 82.88W
09/28/2010 M1.75 INCH MACOMB MI TRAINED SPOTTER

0430 PM HEAVY RAIN WATERFORD 42.66N 83.39W
09/28/2010 M1.25 INCH OAKLAND MI TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

MOSTEIKO

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KGSP [282034]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 282034
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
434 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 S EASTANOLEE 34.51N 83.26W
09/27/2010 STEPHENS GA COUNTY OFFICIAL

AT LEAST FOUR TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN BY THE STORM AND
THERE WERE POWER OUTAGES. A TREE WAS DOWN ON RIDGE
ROAD...BROAD RIVER ROAD AND WEST SPRING WOODS ROAD. ALSO
A TREE DOWN ON PRATHER BRIDGE ROAD WHICH IS NORTH
NORTHEAST OF TOCCOA.

&&

$$

OUTLAW

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KGSP [282016]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 282016
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
416 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0912 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 WSW WILLIAMSTON 34.61N 82.50W
09/27/2010 ANDERSON SC TRAINED SPOTTER

SEVERAL LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN

&&

$$

KRENTZ

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KDTX [282013]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDTX 282013
LSRDTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
413 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0410 PM HEAVY RAIN WYANDOTTE 42.21N 83.16W
09/28/2010 M1.34 INCH WAYNE MI TRAINED SPOTTER

15 HOUR TOTAL

&&

$$

MR

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KBUF [281939]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBUF 281939
LSRBUF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
336 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0156 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 SW RECTOR 43.75N 75.70W
09/28/2010 LEWIS NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN

0230 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 ENE LOWVILLE 43.80N 75.43W
09/28/2010 LEWIS NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN

0235 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 SSE SPERRYVILLE 43.72N 75.27W
09/28/2010 LEWIS NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN

0140 PM TSTM WND DMG REDFIELD 43.53N 75.83W
09/28/2010 OSWEGO NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

LARGE BRANCH DOWN

&&

$$

DTHOMAS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 281933
SWODY1
SPC AC 281931

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 PM CDT TUE SEP 28 2010

VALID 282000Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A SMALL PART OF THE NERN
STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE UPPER KEYS AND SE
FL...

.CHANGES TO PREV FCST...

1. REDUCE AREAL COVERAGE OF SLGT RISK NERN STATES.

2. ADD SLGT RISK IN SE FL.

...NERN STATES...
MLCAPES TO 500 J/KG AND 0-1KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 175 M2/S2 IN SE NY
AND EXTREME NRN NJ DOWNSTREAM FROM A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE
A SHORT-TERM THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR TORNADOES. STORM
MODE WILL FAVOR SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS WITH OCCASIONAL BOWING AS
ACTIVITY MOVES RAPIDLY NNE. AS STRONGER PVA/LLJ CORE SHIFT NWD BY
EVENING...SVR THREATS WILL DIMINISH.

...SE FL/KEYS...
EXPECT SYSTEM S OF CUBA TO BECOME TROPICAL STORM NICOLE THIS
EVENING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER PROGS CENTER OF STORM ON THE N
SHORE OF CNTRL CUBA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. EVOLVING SPIRAL BANDS WILL
REACH THE KEYS/SE FL LATER TONIGHT COINCIDENT WITH AN INCREASE IN
LLVL WIND FIELDS. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 0-1KM SRH WILL REACH
175-200+ M2/S2 AFTER 06Z ACROSS THE UPPER KEYS AND SE FL AS NE
QUADRANT OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DRAWS CLOSER. THIS WILL ENHANCE
THE RISK OF TORNADOES/WATERSPOUTS AND A SLGT RISK HAS BEEN ADDED.

..RACY.. 09/28/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT TUE SEP 28 2010/

...NORTHEAST STATES...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS IN PLACE TODAY OVER THE EASTERN
STATES...WHILE A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES NORTHWARD AROUND
TROUGH ACROSS NY/PA. THE PRIMARY BAND OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL NY SOUTHWARD INTO DE/EASTERN MD WHERE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING. DESPITE
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED HEATING ARE
YIELDING WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO BE THE CASE ALL DAY...LIMITING OVERALL INTENSITY OF ACTIVITY.
NEVERTHELESS...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE VERY STRONG WITH 3KM SRH
VALUES OF 200-300 M2/S2 AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR EXCEEDING 50 KNOTS. THE
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST MOST OF THE DAY FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS OR BOW
ECHOES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS OR A BRIEF TORNADO.

FARTHER WEST...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND STEEPENING LOW/MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE REDEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PA/NY. THESE
STORMS WOULD ALSO POSE A RISK OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS PRIOR TO
SUNSET.

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KMLB [281922]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMLB 281922
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
321 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0230 PM HEAVY RAIN PORT SAINT LUCIE 27.28N 80.35W
09/28/2010 M3.00 INCH ST. LUCIE FL TRAINED SPOTTER

A TRAINED STORM SPOTTER IN PORT SAINT LUCIE REPORTED A
TOTAL OF 3.0 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE 800 A.M.

0245 PM HEAVY RAIN PORT SAINT JOHN 28.48N 80.79W
09/28/2010 M5.56 INCH BREVARD FL PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTED 5.56 INCHES OF RAIN IN PORT SAINT JOHN.
RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA.

0310 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 N COCOA 28.39N 80.75W
09/28/2010 M6.58 INCH BREVARD FL PUBLIC

A COCORAHS SPOTTER REPORTED 6.58 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY IN
NORTH COCOA NEAR CANAVERAL GROVES BOULEVARD AND US 1.

&&

$$

WAU

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KLWX [281909]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 281909
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
309 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0121 PM FLASH FLOOD ROCKVILLE 39.08N 77.15W
09/27/2010 MONTGOMERY MD EMERGENCY MNGR

FLOODING AT INTERSECTION OF ROUTE 28 AND AVERY ROAD.
ALSO ADDITIONAL LOCATIONS IN AND AROUND ROCK CREEK.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1000955

$$

KLW

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1903

ACUS11 KWNS 281750
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281750
NYZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-281845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1903
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 PM CDT TUE SEP 28 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NJ TO SERN NY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 686...

VALID 281750Z - 281845Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 686 CONTINUES.

MEAGER INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY IMPEDIMENT FOR
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE WEAK...ON THE
ORDER OF 5-5.5 C/KM. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS HAVE STRUGGLED TO ATTAIN
HEIGHTS NECESSARY FOR LIGHTNING...THOUGH A FEW ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS
HAVE EXHIBITED ROTATION AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY OVER SRN PORTIONS OF
WW686. GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SRH VALUES...CAN NOT
RULE OUT A TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND GUST UNTIL STRONGER FORCING/SFC
WIND SHIFT PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION.

..DARROW.. 09/28/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

LAT...LON 42777576 42777320 39177350 39177594 42777576

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KPHI [281750]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KPHI 281750
LSRPHI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
149 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM TORNADO NEW LONDON TWP 39.77N 75.88W
09/27/2010 F0 CHESTER PA EMERGENCY MNGR

AN EF-0 TORNADO WAS CONFIRMED NEAR NEW LONDON TOWNSHIP IN
CHESTER COUNTY.

&&

$$

MEOLA

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 281725
SWODY2
SPC AC 281724

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT TUE SEP 28 2010

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND FEATURE A
TROUGH/LOW OVER THE SERN STATES AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN PORTIONS
OF THE COUNTRY. A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES REGION/UPPER MS VLY...ACTING TO REINFORCE THE MEAN
TROUGH. AT THE SAME TIME...A TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL EJECT NNE FROM
CUBA...ACROSS FL AND TOWARD THE SERN COAST BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

...SRN FL...COASTAL PLAINS SC/NC/VA...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16 IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY
SOUTH OF CUBA. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE
SYSTEM ACROSS SRN/ERN FL WEDNESDAY AND OFF THE SC COAST BY 12Z
THURSDAY. SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY TAKE ON SUB-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
LATE IN THE DAY 2 PERIOD WITH AN EVER-EXPANDING ENVELOPE OF ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF THE SERN STATES UPPER
LOW. THERE WILL BE A MORNING THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS/TORNADOES ACROSS ERN FL PENINSULA UNTIL THE SFC CYCLONE
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE RICH THETA-E AIR MASS IS TRANSPORTED WWD INTO THE SC/NC/VA
COASTAL PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT INCREASING 0-1KM SHEAR
OF 40-50 KTS AND THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ESCALATE
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY.

..RACY.. 09/28/2010

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KDTX [281723]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDTX 281723
LSRDTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
123 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 S ARMADA 42.81N 82.88W
09/28/2010 M1.60 INCH MACOMB MI TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL

&&

$$

RKULIK

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KFFC [281718]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 281718
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
117 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 PM HAIL SMYRNA 33.88N 84.51W
09/27/2010 E1.00 INCH COBB GA PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTED QUARTER-SIZED HAIL IN SMYRNA.

0546 PM TSTM WND DMG ELLIJAY 34.69N 84.48W
09/27/2010 GILMER GA COUNTY OFFICIAL

GILMER COUNTY 911 RELAYED A REPORT OF A DOWNED TREE DUE
TO WIND IN ELLIJAY.

0555 PM HAIL 3 E SMYRNA 33.88N 84.47W
09/27/2010 E0.75 INCH COBB GA PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTED PENNY-SIZED HAIL NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
COBB PARKWAY/US41 AND I-285.

0621 PM HAIL JONESBORO 33.52N 84.35W
09/27/2010 E1.00 INCH CLAYTON GA PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTED QUARTER-SIZED HAIL IN JONESBORO.

0650 PM HAIL HOG MOUNTAIN 34.05N 83.93W
09/27/2010 E1.00 INCH GWINNETT GA PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTED QUARTER-SIZED HAIL AT HOG MOUNTAIN.

0755 PM HAIL RUTLEDGE 33.63N 83.61W
09/27/2010 E0.75 INCH MORGAN GA PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTED HAIL OF PENNY SIZE IN RUTLEDGE.

&&

$$

RGARCIA

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KOKX [281652]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KOKX 281652
LSROKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1252 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1219 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 5 WSW SOUTHAMPTON 40.84N 72.48W
09/28/2010 M52 MPH SUFFOLK NY MESONET

45 KNOTS

&&

$$

DS

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KDTX [281640]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDTX 281640
LSRDTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1240 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN WEST BLOOMFIELD 42.57N 83.38W
09/28/2010 M0.48 INCH OAKLAND MI TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN DECKERVILLE 43.53N 82.74W
09/28/2010 M0.50 INCH SANILAC MI TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL

1200 PM HEAVY RAIN ALGONAC 42.62N 82.53W
09/28/2010 M1.82 INCH ST. CLAIR MI TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL

&&

$$

RKULIK

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 281609
SWODY1
SPC AC 281608

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 AM CDT TUE SEP 28 2010

VALID 281630Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES...

...NORTHEAST STATES...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS IN PLACE TODAY OVER THE EASTERN
STATES...WHILE A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES NORTHWARD AROUND
TROUGH ACROSS NY/PA. THE PRIMARY BAND OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL NY SOUTHWARD INTO DE/EASTERN MD WHERE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING. DESPITE
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED HEATING ARE
YIELDING WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO BE THE CASE ALL DAY...LIMITING OVERALL INTENSITY OF ACTIVITY.
NEVERTHELESS...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE VERY STRONG WITH 3KM SRH
VALUES OF 200-300 M2/S2 AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR EXCEEDING 50 KNOTS. THE
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST MOST OF THE DAY FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS OR BOW
ECHOES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS OR A BRIEF TORNADO.

FARTHER WEST...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND STEEPENING LOW/MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE REDEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PA/NY. THESE
STORMS WOULD ALSO POSE A RISK OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS PRIOR TO
SUNSET.

..HART/STOPPKOTTE.. 09/28/2010

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KPHI [281556]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KPHI 281556
LSRPHI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1155 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1110 AM FUNNEL CLOUD WILMINGTON 39.73N 75.53W
09/28/2010 NEW CASTLE DE OTHER FEDERAL

AIRPORT PERSONNEL REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR THE NEW
CASTLE COUNTY AIRPORT.

1110 AM TSTM WND DMG WILMINGTON 39.73N 75.53W
09/28/2010 NEW CASTLE DE NEWSPAPER

ROOF DAMAGE REPORTED AT THE NEW CASTLE COUNTY GOVERNMENT
CENTER.

&&

$$

MEOLA

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 686

WWUS20 KWNS 281503
SEL6
SPC WW 281503
CTZ000-MAZ000-NJZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-CWZ000-282200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 686
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN CONNECTICUT
WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS
NEW JERSEY
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1100 AM UNTIL 600
PM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
PITTSFIELD MASSACHUSETTS TO 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF ATLANTIC
CITY NEW JERSEY. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY
INCREASING ALONG A BAND FROM CENTRAL NY INTO EASTERN PA. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.
INSTABILITY IS QUITE WEAK...AND CONVECTION HAS THUS FAR BEEN TOO
SHALLOW TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR IS VERY STRONG AND THE RISK EXISTS FOR ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS OR SMALL BOW ECHOES. RECENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE CONFIRMED
THAT RISK. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE GREATEST THREAT...BUT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21035.

...HART

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