WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 686

WWUS20 KWNS 281503
SEL6
SPC WW 281503
CTZ000-MAZ000-NJZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-CWZ000-282200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 686
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN CONNECTICUT
WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS
NEW JERSEY
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1100 AM UNTIL 600
PM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
PITTSFIELD MASSACHUSETTS TO 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF ATLANTIC
CITY NEW JERSEY. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY
INCREASING ALONG A BAND FROM CENTRAL NY INTO EASTERN PA. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.
INSTABILITY IS QUITE WEAK...AND CONVECTION HAS THUS FAR BEEN TOO
SHALLOW TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR IS VERY STRONG AND THE RISK EXISTS FOR ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS OR SMALL BOW ECHOES. RECENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE CONFIRMED
THAT RISK. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE GREATEST THREAT...BUT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21035.

...HART

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