KFGF [010245]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 010245
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
845 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0514 PM NON-TSTM WND GST FLAG ISLAND 49.32N 94.89W
01/31/2009 M58.00 MPH LAKE OF THE WOODS MN AWOS

FLAG ISLAND AWOS

&&

$$

WBARRETT

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 010047
SWODY1
SPC AC 010044

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0644 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2009

VALID 010100Z - 011200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...TX COAST...

GOES SOUNDER IPW DATA INDICATE THAT AIR MASS IS SLOWLY MOISTENING
OVER THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO INTO S TX WITH MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE
INCREASE OBSERVED BELOW 700 MB PER COMPARISON OF 31/12Z AND 01/00Z
BRO SOUNDINGS. THE DEEPER LAYER MOISTENING OBSERVED ON THE 01/00Z
CRP SOUNDING MAY BE DUE IN PART TO FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY TRANSLATING ACROSS S TX. WHILE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN OVERNIGHT...MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL WEAKEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE E. AS SUCH...ANY PROSPECTS FOR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE SMALL PRIOR TO 01/12Z.

..MEAD.. 02/01/2009

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KMSO [010008]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 010008
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
508 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0106 AM TSTM WND GST 7 ENE LIBBY 48.43N 115.41W
01/31/2009 M67.00 MPH LINCOLN MT MESONET

XONOLITE RAWS SITE AT 4204 FEET REPORTED SW 38G67 MPH

0222 AM NON-TSTM WND GST HAMILTON 46.25N 114.16W
01/31/2009 M58.00 MPH RAVALLI MT MESONET

HAMILTON/RAVALII CO AIRPORT SITE REPORTED SW 29G58 MPH

0230 AM TSTM WND DMG HAMILTON 46.25N 114.16W
01/31/2009 RAVALLI MT LAW ENFORCEMENT

METAL PORTIONS OF A ROOF WERE BLOWN OFF. NUMEROUS DOWNED
POWER LINES AND TREES.

0330 AM NON-TSTM WND GST CORVALLIS 46.31N 114.11W
01/31/2009 M61.00 MPH RAVALLI MT MESONET

CORVALLIS SITE REPORTED W 22G61 MPH

0359 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 11 N MISSOULA 47.03N 113.99W
01/31/2009 M88.00 MPH MISSOULA MT MESONET

POINT 6 RAWS SITE AT 7929 FEET REPORTED W 49G88 MPH

0500 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG FLORENCE 46.63N 114.08W
01/31/2009 RAVALLI MT NWS EMPLOYEE

TREE LIMBS DOWN, SEMI TRAILER BLOWN OVER AND TRAMPOLINES
OVERTURNED.

0509 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 W DARBY 46.02N 114.26W
01/31/2009 M59.00 MPH RAVALLI MT MESONET

LITTLE ROCK CREEK RAWS SITE AT 5507 FEET REPORTED W 19G59
MPH

&&

$$

SMITH

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KUNR [312049]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 312049
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
149 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1048 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 25 NNE WESTON 44.97N 105.14W
01/31/2009 M57 MPH CAMPBELL WY TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

MERICKSO

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KFGF [312027]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 312027
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
227 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 S BUXTON 47.54N 97.10W
01/31/2009 M58 MPH TRAILL ND MESONET

WIND GUST OF 58 MPH MEASURED BY ND DOT RWIS SITE ON I 29

&&

$$

DKELLENB

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KBIS [312021]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 312021
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
221 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0147 PM HIGH SUST WINDS HARVEY 47.77N 99.94W
01/31/2009 E40 MPH WELLS ND LAW ENFORCEMENT

WELLS COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTED REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW CAUSED BY HIGH WINDS.

&&

$$

JP MARTIN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 312000
SWODY1
SPC AC 311957

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2009

VALID 312000Z - 011200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE/STREAMLINE ANALYSES INDICATED THE CENTER OF
A HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE
WILL SHIFT EWD THIS FORECAST PERIOD ALLOWING SURFACE TRAJECTORIES TO
VEER TO SSELY ACROSS THE WRN GULF AND SUPPORT A NWD RETURN OF
MODIFYING GULF MOISTURE. THIS WILL OCCUR CONCURRENTLY ALONG AND S
OF A RETREATING SURFACE BOUNDARY...WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDED ESEWD
ACROSS THE SRN GULF BASIN.

WEAK FORCING ATTENDANT TO SEVERAL SRN STREAM IMPULSES WILL SPREAD
EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO. LOW LEVEL WAA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TONIGHT ALONG THE RETREATING SURFACE BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
VEER TO SLY AND STRENGTHEN SOME IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS
ATTENDANT TO AN AMPLIFYING CENTRAL U.S. LONG WAVE TROUGH. IT
CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION WILL NOT BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT TSTMS PRIOR TO 12Z SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...
INHIBITION LIKELY WILL REMAIN TOO STRONG FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS IN
THE OFFSHORE WATERS...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION MAY BECOME DEEP ENOUGH FOR
LIGHTNING NOT TOO LONG AFTER 12Z SUNDAY OFF THE MIDDLE TX COAST.

..PETERS.. 01/31/2009

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KBIS [311929]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 311929
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
129 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1201 PM HIGH SUST WINDS RUGBY 48.37N 100.00W
01/31/2009 M40 MPH PIERCE ND DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

GUST 47 MPH. NDDOT.

&&

$$

JP MARTIN

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KBIS [311924]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 311924
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
124 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0119 PM HIGH SUST WINDS ROLLA 48.86N 99.62W
01/31/2009 M40 MPH ROLETTE ND AWOS

54 MPH GUST.

&&

$$

JP MARTIN

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KTFX [311918]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KTFX 311918
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1218 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1216 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW CUT BANK 48.60N 112.38W
01/29/2009 M56.00 MPH GLACIER MT ASOS

MAX SUSTAINED WIND 49 MPH ... CUT BANK AIRPORT ASOS.

0348 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ENE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.45N 113.20W
01/30/2009 M53.00 MPH GLACIER MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

53 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST EAST OF EAST
GLACIER PARK.

0800 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 W SAINT MARY 48.74N 113.71W
01/30/2009 M79.00 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

79 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT LOGAN PASS.

1000 AM NON-TSTM WND GST HEART BUTTE 48.29N 112.83W
01/30/2009 M61.00 MPH PONDERA MT MESONET

61 MPH WIND GUST IN HEART BUTTE.

1130 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BROWNING 48.56N 113.01W
01/30/2009 M49.00 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

49 MPH PEAK WIND GUST IN BROWNING.

1200 PM NON-TSTM WND GST HEART BUTTE 48.29N 112.83W
01/30/2009 M62.00 MPH PONDERA MT MESONET

62 MPH PEAK WIND GUST IN HEART BUTTE.

1200 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 18 WSW BYNUM 47.88N 112.67W
01/30/2009 M55.00 MPH TETON MT MESONET

55 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE GLEASON RAWS LOCATION.

0122 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 WSW GREAT FALLS 47.48N 111.39W
01/30/2009 M46.00 MPH CASCADE MT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

46 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE GREAT FALLS AIRPORT.

0122 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NW PENDROY 48.08N 112.33W
01/30/2009 M52.00 MPH TETON MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

52 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST NORTHWEST OF
PENDROY.

0211 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW CUT BANK 48.60N 112.38W
01/30/2009 M58.00 MPH GLACIER MT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

58 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE CUT BANK AIRPORT.

0255 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 32 N SHELBY 48.97N 111.86W
01/30/2009 M60.00 MPH TOOLE MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

60 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST SOUTH OF
SWEET GRASS.

0330 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NE CHOTEAU 47.82N 112.16W
01/30/2009 M73.00 MPH TETON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

CHOTEAU AIRPORT

0510 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 E INVERNESS 48.56N 110.64W
01/30/2009 M52.00 MPH HILL MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

52 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST EAST OF
INVERNES.

0234 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 N LOMA 47.95N 110.50W
01/31/2009 M59.00 MPH CHOUTEAU MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

0346 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 ESE DENTON 47.30N 109.85W
01/31/2009 M61.00 MPH FERGUS MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

0500 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 9 NW HELENA 46.70N 112.14W
01/31/2009 M51.00 MPH LEWIS AND CLARK MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0511 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 NNE MONARCH 47.14N 110.81W
01/31/2009 M70.00 MPH CASCADE MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

0518 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 S HARLEM 48.34N 108.78W
01/31/2009 M59.00 MPH BLAINE MT MESONET

FORT BELKNAP RAWS

&&
THIS IS A SUMMARY OF HIGH WIND EVENTS FOR THE PAST 48 HOURS.
$$

EK

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KUNR [311854]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 311854
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1154 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1125 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BUFFALO 45.58N 103.55W
01/31/2009 M58 MPH HARDING SD ASOS

1056 AM HIGH SUST WINDS BUFFALO 45.58N 103.55W
01/31/2009 M44 MPH HARDING SD ASOS

&&

$$

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KGGW [311813]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KGGW 311813
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1113 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0405 AM NON-TSTM WND GST WHITEWATER 48.76N 107.63W
01/31/2009 M62.00 MPH PHILLIPS MT MESONET

MEASURED AT THE WHITEWATER SCHOOL AUTOMATED OBSERVATION
SITE.

&&

$$

TANJAF

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KGGW [311811]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 311811
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1111 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0452 AM NON-TSTM WND GST WHITEWATER 48.76N 107.63W
01/31/2009 M62.00 MPH PHILLIPS MT MESONET

MEASURED AT THE WHITEWATER SCHOOL AUTOMATED OBSERVATION
SITE.

&&

$$

TANJAF

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KGGW [311801]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KGGW 311801
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1101 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 9 SSW LUSTRE 48.26N 105.92W
01/31/2009 M0.00 MPH VALLEY MT TRAINED SPOTTER

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 TO 45 MPH FROM ABOUT 500 AM UNTIL
730 AM. MEASURED ON AN AUTOMATED WEATHER OBSERVATION
STATION.

0535 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 28 NNE WOLF POINT 48.46N 105.41W
01/31/2009 M0.00 MPH ROOSEVELT MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 TO 45 MPH FROM 535 AM TO 707 AM.

0626 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 17 NW SIDNEY 47.89N 104.42W
01/31/2009 M0.00 MPH RICHLAND MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUSTAINED WINDS 40 TO 43 MPH FROM 626 AM TO 737 AM.

0630 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 N GLENTANA 48.96N 106.25W
01/31/2009 M0.00 MPH VALLEY MT TRAINED SPOTTER

WINDS SUSTAINED AT 40-43 MPH FOR OVER AN HOUR. MEASURED
ON AN AUTOMATED WEATHER STATION.

0644 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 33 SW GLASGOW 47.86N 107.14W
01/31/2009 M58.00 MPH VALLEY MT MESONET

0730 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 N WHITETAIL 49.00N 105.16W
01/31/2009 M0.00 MPH DANIELS MT OTHER FEDERAL

WINDS SUSTAINED FROM 40 TO 42 MPH AT THE PORT OF
WHITETAIL FROM 730 AM TO 9 AM.

0745 AM NON-TSTM WND GST RAYMOND 48.88N 104.58W
01/31/2009 M58.00 MPH SHERIDAN MT OTHER FEDERAL

THE PORT OF RAYMOND HAD WINDS SUSTAINED IN TO 40 TO 45
MPH RANGE FROM 745 AM TO 915 AM.

&&

$$

TANJAF

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KBIS [311758]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 311758
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1158 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1139 AM NON-TSTM WND GST MINOT AIR FORCE BASE 48.42N 101.36W
01/31/2009 M60 MPH WARD ND ASOS

&&

$$

VROLLER

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 311743
SWODY2
SPC AC 311742

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1142 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2009

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED GENERAL TSTM LINE FOR NDFD GRAPHIC

...SYNOPSIS...
NRN STREAM OF SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS NORTH AMERICA IS EXPECTED TO
UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION ON SUNDAY WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING
EAST OF THE ROCKIES...AS AN UPSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS EWD ACROSS MUCH OF
WRN NORTH AMERICA. MEANWHILE...SRN STREAM EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NRN
MEXICO THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN ON DAY 2 AS LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES EAST OF THE
ROCKIES. A SPEED MAX/ATTENDANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY
LOCATED OFF THE SRN CA COAST PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL TRACK E
WITHIN SRN STREAM AND SHOULD REACH THE NWRN GULF/ADJACENT COASTAL
AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE LOWS WILL BE LOCATED OVER NW TX AND NERN
OK AT 12Z SUNDAY...ALONG THE SRN EXTENT OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS
FORECAST TO EXTEND SWWD FROM A STRONGER SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROGRESS EWD DURING DAY 2
AND EXTEND WSWWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY TO SERN OK AND CENTRAL TX
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THIS EXTENT OF THE FRONT REACHING THE LOWER
MS VALLEY AND SE TX/NWRN GULF BY 12Z MONDAY. THE OK LOW WILL TRACK
EWD INTO THE TN VALLEY...WHILE THE NW TX LOW SHOULD REDEVELOP SEWD
TOWARD THE UPPER TX COAST DURING THE PERIOD. GREATEST CONCENTRATION
OF TSTMS ON DAY 2 SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS THE NWRN GULF...WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY INLAND OVER E TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

...TX/LA...
A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT NWD ACROSS THE NWRN GULF
SUNDAY...WITH MODELS SUGGESTING THE WRN EXTENT SHOULD MOVE INLAND
ALONG THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST AND INTO SE TX...WHILE THE REMAINDER
OF THE BOUNDARY STAYS S OF THE LA COAST. WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND A RETURN OF MODIFIED
MOISTURE FROM THE WRN GULF INTO THE ADJACENT PARTS OF TX/LA.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD INLAND
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST TO SE TX/SWRN
LA...WHILE LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL REACH THE SRN/MIDDLE TX COAST.

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...
INITIALLY OVER THE NWRN GULF...AND THEN INLAND ALONG THE MIDDLE/
UPPER TX COAST TO SRN LA WITHIN LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME AS THE AIR MASS
UNDERGOES DESTABILIZATION. ALTHOUGH SURFACE HEATING WILL LIKELY BE
GREATER ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...TSTMS SHOULD NOT DEVELOP
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM CENTRAL/E TX TO
LA/NRN MS AS THIS BOUNDARY ENCOUNTERS NRN EXTENT OF MOISTURE RETURN.
DESPITE STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THIS REGION ON SUNDAY...MODEST
MOISTURE RETURN SUGGESTS INSTABILITY /MUCAPE 500 J/KG/ SHOULD BE
GREATEST ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COAST WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE GREATER
WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY INLAND. STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO
BE LOCATED ACROSS DEEP S TX TO THE GULF WILL ONLY RESULT IN WEAKER
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /25-30 KT/ OVER SE TX. THE FORECAST
THERMODYNAMICS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY MULTICELLS WITH SOME
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT...BUT GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY/DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE A CATEGORICAL SEVERE RISK AND THE NEED FOR
HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

..PETERS.. 01/31/2009

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 311732
SWODY2
SPC AC 311730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2009

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
NRN STREAM OF SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS NORTH AMERICA IS EXPECTED TO
UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION ON SUNDAY WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING
EAST OF THE ROCKIES...AS AN UPSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS EWD ACROSS MUCH OF
WRN NORTH AMERICA. MEANWHILE...SRN STREAM EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NRN
MEXICO THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN ON DAY 2 AS LONG WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES EAST OF THE
ROCKIES. A SPEED MAX/ATTENDANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY
LOCATED OFF THE SRN CA COAST PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL TRACK E
WITHIN SRN STREAM AND SHOULD REACH THE NWRN GULF/ADJACENT COASTAL
AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE LOWS WILL BE LOCATED OVER NW TX AND NERN
OK AT 12Z SUNDAY...ALONG THE SRN EXTENT OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS
FORECAST TO EXTEND SWWD FROM A STRONGER SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROGRESS EWD DURING DAY 2
AND EXTEND WSWWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY TO SERN OK AND CENTRAL TX
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THIS EXTENT OF THE FRONT REACHING THE LOWER
MS VALLEY AND SE TX/NWRN GULF BY 12Z MONDAY. THE OK LOW WILL TRACK
EWD INTO THE TN VALLEY...WHILE THE NW TX LOW SHOULD REDEVELOP SEWD
TOWARD THE UPPER TX COAST DURING THE PERIOD. GREATEST CONCENTRATION
OF TSTMS ON DAY 2 SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS THE NWRN GULF...WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY INLAND OVER E TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

...TX/LA...
A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT NWD ACROSS THE NWRN GULF
SUNDAY...WITH MODELS SUGGESTING THE WRN EXTENT SHOULD MOVE INLAND
ALONG THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST AND INTO SE TX...WHILE THE REMAINDER
OF THE BOUNDARY STAYS S OF THE LA COAST. WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND A RETURN OF MODIFIED
MOISTURE FROM THE WRN GULF INTO THE ADJACENT PARTS OF TX/LA.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD INLAND
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST TO SE TX/SWRN
LA...WHILE LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL REACH THE SRN/MIDDLE TX COAST.

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...
INITIALLY OVER THE NWRN GULF...AND THEN INLAND ALONG THE MIDDLE/
UPPER TX COAST TO SRN LA WITHIN LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME AS THE AIR MASS
UNDERGOES DESTABILIZATION. ALTHOUGH SURFACE HEATING WILL LIKELY BE
GREATER ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...TSTMS SHOULD NOT DEVELOP
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM CENTRAL/E TX TO
LA/NRN MS AS THIS BOUNDARY ENCOUNTERS NRN EXTENT OF MOISTURE RETURN.
DESPITE STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THIS REGION ON SUNDAY...MODEST
MOISTURE RETURN SUGGESTS INSTABILITY /MUCAPE 500 J/KG/ SHOULD BE
GREATEST ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COAST WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE GREATER
WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY INLAND. STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO
BE LOCATED ACROSS DEEP S TX TO THE GULF WILL ONLY RESULT IN WEAKER
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /25-30 KT/ OVER SE TX. THE FORECAST
THERMODYNAMICS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY MULTICELLS WITH SOME
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT...BUT GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY/DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE A CATEGORICAL SEVERE RISK AND THE NEED FOR
HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

..PETERS.. 01/31/2009

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KBYZ [311708]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBYZ 311708
LSRBYZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1008 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0108 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 SW NYE 45.38N 109.88W
01/31/2009 M82.00 MPH STILLWATER MT TRAINED SPOTTER

STILLWATER MINE

0253 AM NON-TSTM WND GST LIVINGSTON 45.66N 110.56W
01/31/2009 M85.00 MPH PARK MT ASOS

0353 AM HIGH SUST WINDS LIVINGSTON 45.66N 110.56W
01/31/2009 M63.00 MPH PARK MT ASOS

0555 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 S RAPELJE 45.91N 109.27W
01/31/2009 M65.00 MPH STILLWATER MT CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

HUMPHREY

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KBIS [311648]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 311648
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1048 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1017 AM HIGH SUST WINDS COLEHARBOR 47.54N 101.22W
01/31/2009 M40 MPH MCLEAN ND DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

1030 AM HIGH SUST WINDS DENHOFF 47.48N 100.26W
01/31/2009 M40 MPH SHERIDAN ND DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

GUSTING 54 MPH.

0938 AM HIGH SUST WINDS CROSBY 48.91N 103.29W
01/31/2009 M40 MPH DIVIDE ND DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

&&

$$

JP MARTIN

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KBIS [311630]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 311630
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1030 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1008 AM HIGH SUST WINDS MINOT AIR FORCE BASE 48.42N 101.36W
01/31/2009 M41 MPH WARD ND ASOS

&&

$$

JP MARTIN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 311542
SWODY1
SPC AC 311539

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0939 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2009

VALID 311630Z - 011200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
W TO WNWLY LOW AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LWR 48
THIS PERIOD....IN WAKE OF TROUGH NOW EXITING THE ERN SEABOARD. A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE SRN STREAM /EXTENDING FROM NRN
BAJA CA ACROSS FAR NRN MEXICO INTO DEEP S TX/...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW ENTERING THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES...WILL SERVE TO STRENGTHEN LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW OVER THE
WRN GULF OF MEXICO AND SE TX.

...S TX/TX CSTL PLN...
BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MODIFY TODAY AS SFC RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH ERN U.S. TROUGH CONTINUES
EWD. AT THE SAME TIME...AREA OF MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOW
LOCATED OVER WRN PARTS OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND OVER THE E CNTRL
MEXICAN CSTL PLN WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD N INTO SRN/SERN TX WITH
STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW.

SUSTAINED WAA AND UVV BENEATH SRN STREAM JET WILL SUPPORT A TREND
FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY OVER
SRN/SE TX AS FAR N AS UPR TX CSTL PLN. BUT...GIVEN LIMITED QUALITY
OF WRN GULF MOISTURE /PER SATELLITE AND SFC DATA/ AND RELATIVELY
WEAK MID LVL LAPSE RATES...IT APPEARS THAT MOISTENING/
DESTABILIZATION WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT TSTMS PRIOR TO 12Z
SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...INHIBITION LIKELY WILL REMAIN TOO STRONG FOR
SFC-BASED STORMS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION MAY
BECOME DEEP ENOUGH FOR LIGHTNING NOT TOO LONG AFTER 12Z SUN OFF THE
MIDDLE TX CST.

..HALES/CORFIDI.. 01/31/2009

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KGGW [311539]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 311539
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
839 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0910 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 W ZORTMAN 47.92N 108.55W
01/30/2009 M59.00 MPH PHILLIPS MT MESONET

SUSTAINED 48G59 MPH.

0535 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 28 NNE WOLF POINT 48.46N 105.41W
01/31/2009 M0.00 MPH ROOSEVELT MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 TO 45 MPH SINCE 535 AM.

0626 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 17 NW SIDNEY 47.89N 104.42W
01/31/2009 M0.00 MPH RICHLAND MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUSTAINED WINDS 40 TO 43 MPH SINCE 626 AM.

0644 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 33 SW GLASGOW 47.86N 107.14W
01/31/2009 M58.00 MPH VALLEY MT MESONET

&&

$$

TANJAF

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KTFX [311515]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 311515
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
815 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0234 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 N LOMA 47.95N 110.50W
01/31/2009 M59.00 MPH CHOUTEAU MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

0346 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 ESE DENTON 47.30N 109.85W
01/31/2009 M61.00 MPH FERGUS MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

0511 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 NNE MONARCH 47.14N 110.81W
01/31/2009 M70.00 MPH CASCADE MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

0518 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 S HARLEM 48.34N 108.78W
01/31/2009 M59.00 MPH BLAINE MT MESONET

FORT BELKNAP RAWS

&&

$$

JBLANK

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KMQT [311510]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 311510
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1010 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1008 AM SNOW 3 NE PIKE LAKE 46.68N 85.37W
01/31/2009 M2.0 INCH LUCE MI CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR TOTAL ENDING 10 AM. 1 INCH IN THE LAST 12 HOURS.
SNOW DEPTH 40 INCHES.

&&

$$

AJK

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KAPX [311428]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 311428
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
928 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0926 AM SNOW SAULT STE. MARIE 46.48N 84.37W
01/31/2009 M3.0 INCH CHIPPEWA MI TRAINED SPOTTER

12 HR TOTAL THRU 9 AM. SNOW DEPTH 21 IN.

&&

$$

FF

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KAPX [311352]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 311352
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
852 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0850 AM SNOW 4 WNW PELLSTON 45.58N 84.86W
01/31/2009 M4.5 INCH EMMET MI TRAINED SPOTTER

12 HR TOTAL THROUGH 8 AM. SNOW DEPTH 26 INCHES.

&&

$$

MBOGUTH

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 311300
SWODY1
SPC AC 311257

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2009

VALID 311300Z - 011200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
W TO WNWLY LOW AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LWR 48
THIS PERIOD....IN WAKE OF TROUGH NOW EXITING THE ERN SEABOARD. A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE SRN STREAM /EXTENDING FROM NRN
BAJA CA ACROSS FAR NRN MEXICO INTO DEEP S TX/...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW ENTERING THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES...WILL SERVE TO STRENGTHEN LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW OVER THE
WRN GULF OF MEXICO AND SE TX.

...S TX/TX CSTL PLN...
BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MODIFY TODAY AS SFC RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH ERN U.S. TROUGH CONTINUES
EWD. AT THE SAME TIME...AREA OF MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOW
LOCATED OVER WRN PARTS OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND OVER THE E CNTRL
MEXICAN CSTL PLN WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD N INTO SRN/SERN TX WITH
STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW.

SUSTAINED WAA AND UVV BENEATH SRN STREAM JET WILL SUPPORT A TREND
FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY OVER
SRN/SE TX AS FAR N AS UPR TX CSTL PLN. BUT...GIVEN LIMITED QUALITY
OF WRN GULF MOISTURE /PER SATELLITE AND SFC DATA/ AND RELATIVELY
WEAK MID LVL LAPSE RATES...IT APPEARS THAT MOISTENING/
DESTABILIZATION WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT TSTMS PRIOR TO 12Z
SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...INHIBITION LIKELY WILL REMAIN TOO STRONG FOR
SFC-BASED STORMS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION MAY
BECOME DEEP ENOUGH FOR LIGHTNING NOT TOO LONG AFTER 12Z SUN OFF THE
MIDDLE TX CST.

..CORFIDI.. 01/31/2009

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KMQT [311300]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 311300
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
800 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0758 AM SNOW 10 S GRAND MARAIS 46.53N 85.98W
01/31/2009 M2.5 INCH ALGER MI CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR TOTAL ENDING 750 AM. SNOW DEPTH 40 INCHES.

0759 AM SNOW MUNISING 46.41N 86.65W
01/31/2009 M3.5 INCH ALGER MI CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR TOTAL ENDING 630 AM. SNOW DEPTH 33 INCHES.

&&

$$

AJK

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 310936
SWOD48
SPC AC 310935

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2009

VALID 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL PROVE HOSTILE FOR DEEP CONVECTION OF ANY
INTENSITY WELL INTO THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL
STRUGGLE TO RETURN NWD ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO INTO SOUTH TX
UNTIL DAY7-8 TIME FRAME AS UPPER TROUGHING BEGINS TO EVOLVE ACROSS
THE SWRN U.S. UNTIL THEN...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WEAK AND
ISOLATED.

..DARROW.. 01/31/2009

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KGRR [310824]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KGRR 310824
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
323 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0936 PM SNOW YANKEE SPRINGS 42.62N 85.49W
01/29/2009 M5.0 INCH BARRY MI TRAINED SPOTTER

0936 PM SNOW ST. JOHNS 43.00N 84.56W
01/29/2009 M1.1 INCH CLINTON MI TRAINED SPOTTER

0936 PM SNOW EAST GRAND RAPIDS 42.94N 85.61W
01/29/2009 M2.1 INCH KENT MI TRAINED SPOTTER

0936 PM SNOW 3 NW HUDSONVILLE 42.90N 85.91W
01/29/2009 M2.5 INCH OTTAWA MI TRAINED SPOTTER

0500 AM SNOW 6 WNW SCOTTVILLE 43.99N 86.39W
01/30/2009 M7.5 INCH MASON MI COCORAHS

0700 AM SNOW 1 E MIDDLEVILLE 42.71N 85.44W
01/30/2009 M5.8 INCH BARRY MI COCORAHS

0700 AM SNOW GREENVILLE 43.18N 85.26W
01/30/2009 M1.5 INCH MONTCALM MI TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL.

0700 AM SNOW WAYLAND 42.67N 85.64W
01/30/2009 M7.0 INCH ALLEGAN MI TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL.

0700 AM SNOW HESPERIA 43.57N 86.04W
01/30/2009 M9.9 INCH NEWAYGO MI CO-OP OBSERVER

STARTED 1/29 AT 3 PM ENDED AT 7 AM 1/30.

0745 AM SNOW RICHLAND 42.38N 85.46W
01/30/2009 M6.0 INCH KALAMAZOO MI TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL.

0800 AM SNOW 5 E PLAINWELL 42.44N 85.54W
01/30/2009 M4.5 INCH BARRY MI COCORAHS

1120 AM SNOW FERRY 43.58N 86.22W
01/30/2009 M8.5 INCH OCEANA MI TRAINED SPOTTER

STARTED EARLY AM 1/29/09 ENDED 1120 AM 1/30/09.

0400 PM SNOW YANKEE SPRINGS 42.62N 85.49W
01/30/2009 M6.5 INCH BARRY MI PUBLIC

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL

0500 PM SNOW 2 SW SHELBY 43.59N 86.39W
01/30/2009 M2.0 INCH OCEANA MI PUBLIC

24 HOUR SNOW AMOUNT

0843 PM SNOW BATTLE CREEK 42.32N 85.19W
01/30/2009 M3.5 INCH CALHOUN MI TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IS 3.5 INCHES. JANUARY SNOWFALL IS
36.5 INCHES. SEASONAL SNOWFALL IS 77.5 INCHES.

0100 AM SNOW MUSKEGON 43.22N 86.25W
01/31/2009 M3.0 INCH MUSKEGON MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

STORM TOTAL FROM THE 29TH AND 30TH AT THE MUSKEGON
AIRPORT.

0100 AM SNOW LANSING 42.74N 84.55W
01/31/2009 M0.5 INCH INGHAM MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

STORM TOTAL FROM THE 29TH AND 30TH FROM THE LANSING
AIRPORT.

0100 AM SNOW 4 SE GRAND RAPIDS 42.92N 85.61W
01/31/2009 M3.6 INCH KENT MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

STORM TOTAL FROM THE 29TH AND 30TH AT THE GRAND RAPIDS
AIRPORT.

0310 AM SNOW 1 ENE GRAND JUNCTION 42.41N 86.05W
01/31/2009 M4.0 INCH VAN BUREN MI TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL IS 4 INCHES. SNOW DEPTH IS 22.5 INCHES.

&&

$$

OSTUNO

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 310820
SWODY3
SPC AC 310818

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2009

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...FL PENINSULA...

SRN STREAM SPEED MAX WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD
THE FL PENINSULA BEFORE EJECTING NEWD IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG E-W
FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE CNTRL GULF...WITH SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT EAST
TOWARD THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA BY EARLY EVENING MONDAY. WHILE SHEAR
PROFILES WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY AHEAD OF THE LOW...SFC-6KM VALUES
APPROACHING 70KT...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL. MODELS SUGGEST SFC DEW POINTS
WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE 60S. ADDITIONALLY...FORECAST LAPSE
RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...YIELDING MINIMAL INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. EVEN SO...CONVECTION SHOULD EVOLVE
ALONG/NORTH OF E-W SFC FRONT AHEAD OF LOW...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA. ACTIVITY...THOUGH STRONGLY
SHEARED...WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO WEAK TO WARRANT A RISK OF ORGANIZED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF INSTABILITY IS UNDERESTIMATED...MORE
ROBUST UPDRAFTS ARE POSSIBLE AND PERHAPS A RISK OF SEVERE.

..DARROW.. 01/31/2009

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KGRR [310812]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 310812
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
312 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0310 AM SNOW 1 ENE GRAND JUNCTION 42.41N 86.05W
01/31/2009 M4.0 INCH VAN BUREN MI TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL IS 4 INCHES. SNOW DEPTH IS 22.5 INCHES.

&&

$$

OSTUNO

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 310551
SWODY2
SPC AC 310549

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2009

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...TX/LA...

MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO
INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW LATITUDE
SPEED MAX SPREADING ACROSS NRN MEXICO. THIS MOISTURE SURGE WILL NOT
MOVE VERY FAR INLAND AS PRIMARY SFC WAVE WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND
TRAVERSE JUST SOUTH OF IMMEDIATE COAST. WELL INLAND...STRONG
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF SHARP COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM SWRN AR...SWWD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY OF
CNTRL TX BY LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SFC PARCELS
WILL REACH THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE ALONG I-35 CORRIDOR WITHIN
WARM SECTOR. AIDED BY CONVERGENCE ALONG WIND SHIFT...CONVECTION
SHOULD DEVELOP BY 00Z. RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES BUT MEAGER
MOISTURE...SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 40S...WILL RESULT IN WEAK
INSTABILITY/LOW SEVERE THREAT. FARTHER SOUTH...SOMEWHAT HIGHER
MOISTURE/BUOYANCY MAY ENHANCE WEAK SUPERCELL POTENTIAL NEAR THE
UPPER TX/WRN LA COAST WITHIN WARM ADVECTION REGIME...NORTH OF
PRIMARY OFFSHORE BOUNDARY. MCS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT
BY LATE EVENING WITH MAIN CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO.

..DARROW.. 01/31/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 310501
SWODY1
SPC AC 310458

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1058 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2009

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER PATTERN WILL...AT LEAST BRIEFLY
...TREND TOWARD A MORE ZONAL SPLIT FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
AMPLIFIED EASTERN TROUGH IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD....AS THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHIFTS EAST OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIGGING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. AS THIS OCCURS... BROAD
TROUGHING IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
EMBEDDED IMPULSES...APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU AND WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.

ASSOCIATED WITH THIS REGIME...THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY BEGIN MODIFYING IN THE WAKE OF
A RETREATING SURFACE RIDGE. MUCH OF THE MODEL DATA INDICATE AT
LEAST A GENERAL TREND TOWARD INCREASING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS FAR NORTH AS UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS.
HOWEVER...IT CURRENTLY APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT MOISTENING/
DESTABILIZATION WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO 01/12Z. INHIBITION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO
STRONG FOR BOUNDARY LAYER BASED STORMS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
AND...WEAK...SHALLOW CAPE WITH SOMEWHAT WARM EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...FOR PARCELS BASED IN THE ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION
REGIME EXTENDING INLAND...IS SUGGESTIVE THAT CHARGE SEPARATION
SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHTNING MAY NOT BE ACHIEVED. GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT IT MAY NOT TAKE LONG AFTER 01/12Z FOR THIS TO BEGIN TO CHANGE
...THOUGH.

..KERR.. 01/31/2009

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