SWODY1
SPC AC 310458
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1058 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2009
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER PATTERN WILL...AT LEAST BRIEFLY
...TREND TOWARD A MORE ZONAL SPLIT FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
AMPLIFIED EASTERN TROUGH IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD....AS THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHIFTS EAST OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIGGING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. AS THIS OCCURS... BROAD
TROUGHING IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
EMBEDDED IMPULSES...APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU AND WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS REGIME...THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY BEGIN MODIFYING IN THE WAKE OF
A RETREATING SURFACE RIDGE. MUCH OF THE MODEL DATA INDICATE AT
LEAST A GENERAL TREND TOWARD INCREASING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS FAR NORTH AS UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS.
HOWEVER...IT CURRENTLY APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT MOISTENING/
DESTABILIZATION WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO 01/12Z. INHIBITION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO
STRONG FOR BOUNDARY LAYER BASED STORMS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
AND...WEAK...SHALLOW CAPE WITH SOMEWHAT WARM EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...FOR PARCELS BASED IN THE ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION
REGIME EXTENDING INLAND...IS SUGGESTIVE THAT CHARGE SEPARATION
SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHTNING MAY NOT BE ACHIEVED. GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT IT MAY NOT TAKE LONG AFTER 01/12Z FOR THIS TO BEGIN TO CHANGE
...THOUGH.
..KERR.. 01/31/2009
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