KTFX [232308]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KTFX 232308
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
508 PM MDT FRI SEP 23 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 WSW SAINT MARY 48.69N 113.71W
09/23/2011 M74 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME...EVENT

$$

WILLIAMSON

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KSGX [232240]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 232240
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
340 PM PDT FRI SEP 23 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0338 PM HAIL EL CAJON 32.80N 116.96W
09/23/2011 E0.25 INCH SAN DIEGO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

TRWA OVHD IN BARONA VLY. LTGICCG. PEA SIZE HAIL

&&

$$

NISLA

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KTFX [232210]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 232210
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
410 PM MDT FRI SEP 23 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1015 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.37N 113.10W
09/23/2011 M64 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

&&

$$

WILLIAMSON

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KTFX [232209]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 232209
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
409 PM MDT FRI SEP 23 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 WSW SAINT MARY 48.69N 113.71W
09/23/2011 M69 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

&&

$$

WILLIAMSON

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KOKX [232205]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KOKX 232205
LSROKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
604 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM FLASH FLOOD DANBURY 41.40N 73.47W
09/23/2011 FAIRFIELD CT FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

STANDING WATER ON MAIN STREET NEAR INTERSECTION WITH
WOOSTER STREET... ROAD CLOSED FOR VERY SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME

&&

$$

JM

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KLWX [232158]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 232158
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
558 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0541 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 S ROSSVILLE 39.34N 76.48W
09/23/2011 BALTIMORE MD DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

ROUTE 40 CLOSED NEAR ROSSVILLE BLVD DUE TO FLASH
FLOODING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1101946

$$

SBK

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KOKX [232139]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KOKX 232139
LSROKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
538 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 PM FLASH FLOOD MOUNT VERNON 40.91N 73.83W
09/23/2011 WESTCHESTER NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

ALL NORTHBOUND LANES OF BRONX RIVER PARKWAY CLOSED

&&

$$

JM

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KCTP [232138]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KCTP 232138
LSRCTP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
538 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0536 PM FLASH FLOOD GETTYSBURG 39.83N 77.23W
09/23/2011 ADAMS PA 911 CALL CENTER

AT 530 PM...APPROXIMATELY 40 ROADS REMAINED CLOSED DUE
TO FLOODING IN PRIMARILY CENTRAL AND EASTERN ADAMS CO.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1100459

$$

EVANEGO

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KJAX [232134]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 232134
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
534 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0525 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 S LAKE WEIR 28.96N 82.00W
09/23/2011 M1.86 INCH MARION FL CO-OP OBSERVER

A COCORAHS OBSERVER MEASURED 1.86 INCHES WITHIN 35
MINUTES.

&&

$$

AENYEDI

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KLWX [232129]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 232129
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
529 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0438 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 SW PLEASANT HILLS 39.48N 76.41W
09/23/2011 BALTIMORE MD DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

ROUTE 1 CLOSED NORTH OF NEW CUT ROAD DUE TO FLASH
FLOODING ALONG LITTLE GUNPOWDER FALLS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1101945

$$

SBK

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KLWX [232026]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 232026
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
426 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0413 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 S FERNDALE 39.17N 76.63W
09/23/2011 ANNE ARUNDEL MD DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

MD 176 CLOSED AT ROUTE 648 AT SAWMILL CREEK DUE TO
FLASH FLOODING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1101944

$$

JE

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KLWX [232011]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 232011
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
411 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM FLOOD EMMITSBURG 39.70N 77.33W
09/23/2011 FREDERICK MD DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

ROADS REMAIN CLOSED NEAR EMMITSBURG DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1101943

$$

JE

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KLWX [232003]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 232003
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
403 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0353 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 WSW GLEN ARM 39.45N 76.51W
09/23/2011 BALTIMORE MD DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

ROUTE 147 FLOODED AND CLOSED NEAR COWEN RUN NORTH OF
NOTCH CLIFF.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1101942

$$

JE

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KLWX [232001]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 232001
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
401 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0350 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 SSW PERRY HALL 39.39N 76.49W
09/23/2011 BALTIMORE MD DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

US 1 FLOODED AND CLOSED AT RIDGELYS CHOICE DRIVE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1101941

$$

JE

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 231955
SWODY1
SPC AC 231954

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2011

VALID 232000Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

A COUPLE OF CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE OUTLOOK AT 20Z. THE FIRST
CHANGE IS TO REMOVE PARTS OF NRN AL...ECNTRL TN...ERN KY AND SCNTRL
OH FROM THE THUNDER AREA WHERE A COLD FRONT IS STABILIZING THE
AIRMASS. THE SECOND CHANGE IS TO MOVE THE 5 PERCENT WIND DAMAGE
PROBABILITY LINE SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN
MTNS. OTHERWISE...THE OUTLOOK LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.

..BROYLES.. 09/23/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2011/

...ERN CAROLINAS/VA TIDEWATER AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
A MIDLEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR LAKE MI WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK EMBEDDED SPEED MAX WILL ROTATE NNEWD THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS TO PA...AROUND THE SERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. AT THE SURFACE...THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC LOW
WILL DRIFT NWD INVOF LAKE ERIE...WHILE A FRONT WILL REMAIN
QUASISTATIONARY FROM ERN SC/CENTRAL NC INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA.
THIS FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL FOCUS THE MAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD...IN ADVANCE OF THE EJECTING SPEED MAX OVER THE
SRN APPALACHIANS.

BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 70S HAVE SPREAD INLAND
ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS AND THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA.
HOWEVER...SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...AND THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL
ALSO BE LIMITED BY POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.
MEANWHILE...DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CLUSTERS/EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A BELT OF 30-40 KT SSWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW...AND EFFECTIVE SRH ON
THE ORDER OF 150 M2/S2. THE COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY WEAK
INSTABILITY/POOR LAPSE RATES/MOIST PROFILES WITH MODEST VERTICAL
SHEAR APPEARS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND AN
ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO. WILL MAINTAIN LOW WIND/TORNADO
PROBABILITIES IN THIS UPDATE...BUT THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

...WRN NY/PA TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...
THE PRIMARY EMBEDDED SPEED MAX WILL ROTATE NNEWD FROM KY TO OH THIS
AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY ALONG THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT NEAR THE W SLOPE
OF THE APPALACHIANS. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY COOL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP INSTABILITY WEAK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...THOUGH THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MIDLEVEL
MOMENTUM TO SUPPORT A SMALL RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON.

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KCTP [231949]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KCTP 231949
LSRCTP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
349 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1230 PM FLASH FLOOD YORK SPRINGS 40.01N 77.12W
09/23/2011 ADAMS PA TRAINED SPOTTER

WATER OVER ROUTE 94 IN SEVERAL PLACES BETWEEN ROUTE 30
AND ROUTE 15.

1231 PM FLASH FLOOD GETTYSBURG 39.83N 77.23W
09/23/2011 ADAMS PA 911 CALL CENTER

ROADS CLOSED IN AND AROUND GETTYSBURG. LOCAL STREAMS
REPORTED OUT OF THEIR BANKS

0145 PM FLASH FLOOD MCADOO 40.90N 75.99W
09/23/2011 SCHUYLKILL PA 911 CALL CENTER

WATER ACROSS PARTS OF ROUTE 309 NEAR I-81.

0145 PM FLASH FLOOD FRACKVILLE 40.78N 76.23W
09/23/2011 SCHUYLKILL PA TRAINED SPOTTER

PONDING OF WATER ON I-81 BETWEEN FRACKVILLE AND DELANO.

0155 PM FLASH FLOOD HOMETOWN 40.82N 75.99W
09/23/2011 SCHUYLKILL PA EMERGENCY MNGR

SEVERAL ROADS REPORTED TO BE WASHED OUT IN RUSH TWP.

0348 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 N DILLSBURG 40.12N 77.03W
09/23/2011 YORK PA 911 CALL CENTER

RT 74 CLOSED FROM RT 15 TO WILLIAMS GROVE RD. SEVERAL
OTHER ROADS CLOSED NEARBY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1100453 CTP1100452 CTP1100455 CTP1100456 CTP1100457
CTP1100458

$$

EVANEGO

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KJAN [231934]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KJAN 231934
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
234 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0720 PM TSTM WND DMG PORTLAND 33.24N 91.51W
09/22/2011 ASHLEY AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN. REPORTED BY ASHLEY S.O.

0752 PM TSTM WND GST 6 N EUDORA 33.21N 91.26W
09/22/2011 M50.00 MPH CHICOT AR MESONET

MEASURED AT ARKANSAS PLANT BOARD MESONET SITE

0800 PM TSTM WND DMG EUDORA 33.12N 91.26W
09/22/2011 CHICOT AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE ON A HOUSE. REPORTED BY CHICOT S.O.

0800 PM TSTM WND DMG EUDORA 33.12N 91.26W
09/22/2011 CHICOT AR PUBLIC

TREES ACROSS ROAD

0835 PM TSTM WND DMG ARCOLA 33.27N 90.88W
09/22/2011 WASHINGTON MS COUNTY OFFICIAL

DOWNED TREES IN THE CEMETERY AND ON POPLAR AND OAK
STREETS.

&&

$$

BURSE

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KJAN [231933]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 231933
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
232 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0720 PM TSTM WND DMG PORTLAND 33.24N 91.51W
09/22/2011 ASHLEY AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN. REPORTED BY ASHLEY S.O.

&&

$$

BURSE

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KCTP [231759]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KCTP 231759
LSRCTP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
159 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0155 PM FLASH FLOOD HOMETOWN 40.82N 75.99W
09/23/2011 SCHUYLKILL PA EMERGENCY MNGR

SEVERAL ROADS REPORTED TO BE WASHED OUT IN RUSH TWP.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1100457

$$

EVANEGO

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KCTP [231754]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KCTP 231754
LSRCTP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
153 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0145 PM FLASH FLOOD MCADOO 40.90N 75.99W
09/23/2011 SCHUYLKILL PA 911 CALL CENTER

WATER ACROSS PARTS OF ROUTE 309 NEAR I-81.

0145 PM FLASH FLOOD FRACKVILLE 40.78N 76.23W
09/23/2011 SCHUYLKILL PA TRAINED SPOTTER

PONDING OF WATER ON I-81 BETWEEN FRACKVILLE AND DELANO.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1100455 CTP1100456

$$

EVANEGO

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KTFX [231740]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 231740
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1140 AM MDT FRI SEP 23 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1051 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NW HEART BUTTE 48.30N 112.85W
09/23/2011 M58 MPH GLACIER MT CO-OP OBSERVER

MEASURED 58 MPH WIND GUST.

&&

$$

JOH

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KCTP [231738]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KCTP 231738
LSRCTP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
138 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0136 PM FLASH FLOOD YORK SPRINGS 40.01N 77.12W
09/23/2011 ADAMS PA TRAINED SPOTTER

2.47 INCHES OF RAIN IN LESS THAN 2 HOURS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1100454

$$

LA CORTE

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KRAH [231729]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KRAH 231729
LSRRAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
129 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 4 NE ASHEBORO 35.75N 79.76W
09/23/2011 RANDOLPH NC 911 CALL CENTER

ONE TREE DOWN ALONG HENLEY COUNTRY RD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1101455

$$

MCLAMB

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 231721
SWODY2
SPC AC 231720

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2011

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY IS
FORECAST TO RETROGRADE WWD INTO THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE
SFC...A LOW IN THE GREAT PLAINS WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE SWD HELPING TO
REINFORCE SLY FLOW ACROSS LOWER TO MID-MS VALLEY. IN SPITE OF
THIS...MODEL FORECASTS KEEP THE GREATEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
RESULTANT INSTABILITY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST EXTENDING NEWD
INTO THE CAROLINAS WHERE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
SATURDAY SUGGEST THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE TOO MARGINAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWER OH
VALLEY AND DESERT SOUTHWEST BUT THE FORECAST ENVIRONMENT IN THESE
TWO LOCATIONS ALSO APPEARS TO BE TOO MARGINAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 09/23/2011

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KRAH [231706]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KRAH 231706
LSRRAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
105 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM FLASH FLOOD 5 SW MCLEANSVILLE 36.06N 79.73W
09/23/2011 GUILFORD NC MESONET

SOUTH BUFFALO CREEK EXCEEDED ITS FLOOD STAGE OF 12 FEET
AND WAS STEADY JUST ABOVE ITS FLOOD STAGE THROUGH 1 PM.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1101454

$$

DJF

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KCTP [231700]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KCTP 231700
LSRCTP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1259 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1230 PM FLASH FLOOD YORK SPRINGS 40.01N 77.12W
09/23/2011 ADAMS PA TRAINED SPOTTER

WATER OVER ROUTE 94 IN SEVERAL PLACES BETWEEN ROUTE 30
AND ROUTE 15.

1231 PM FLASH FLOOD GETTYSBURG 39.83N 77.23W
09/23/2011 ADAMS PA 911 CALL CENTER

ROADS CLOSED IN AND AROUND GETTYSBURG. LOCAL STREAMS
REPORTED OUT OF THEIR BANKS

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1100453 CTP1100452

$$

EVANEGO

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KCTP [231632]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KCTP 231632
LSRCTP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1232 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1231 PM FLASH FLOOD GETTYSBURG 39.83N 77.23W
09/23/2011 ADAMS PA 911 CALL CENTER

ROADS CLOSED IN AND AROUND GETTYSBURG. LOCAL STREAMS
REPORTED OUT OF THEIR BANKS

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1100452

$$

LA CORTE

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KLWX [231628]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 231628
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1228 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1227 PM FLASH FLOOD NEW MIDWAY 39.56N 77.30W
09/23/2011 FREDERICK MD DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

WOODSBORO PIKE NORTHBOUND FLOODED AND CLOSED NEAR NEW
MIDWAY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1101940

$$

JE

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KLWX [231625]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 231625
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1225 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1215 PM FLASH FLOOD EMMITSBURG 39.70N 77.33W
09/23/2011 FREDERICK MD DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SETON AVENUE FLOODED AND CLOSED IN EMMITSBURG.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1101939

$$

JE

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 231614
SWODY1
SPC AC 231613

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1113 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2011

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...ERN CAROLINAS/VA TIDEWATER AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
A MIDLEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR LAKE MI WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK EMBEDDED SPEED MAX WILL ROTATE NNEWD THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS TO PA...AROUND THE SERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. AT THE SURFACE...THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC LOW
WILL DRIFT NWD INVOF LAKE ERIE...WHILE A FRONT WILL REMAIN
QUASISTATIONARY FROM ERN SC/CENTRAL NC INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA.
THIS FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL FOCUS THE MAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD...IN ADVANCE OF THE EJECTING SPEED MAX OVER THE
SRN APPALACHIANS.

BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 70S HAVE SPREAD INLAND
ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS AND THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA.
HOWEVER...SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...AND THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL
ALSO BE LIMITED BY POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.
MEANWHILE...DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CLUSTERS/EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A BELT OF 30-40 KT SSWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW...AND EFFECTIVE SRH ON
THE ORDER OF 150 M2/S2. THE COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY WEAK
INSTABILITY/POOR LAPSE RATES/MOIST PROFILES WITH MODEST VERTICAL
SHEAR APPEARS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND AN
ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO. WILL MAINTAIN LOW WIND/TORNADO
PROBABILITIES IN THIS UPDATE...BUT THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

...WRN NY/PA TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...
THE PRIMARY EMBEDDED SPEED MAX WILL ROTATE NNEWD FROM KY TO OH THIS
AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY ALONG THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT NEAR THE W SLOPE
OF THE APPALACHIANS. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY COOL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP INSTABILITY WEAK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...THOUGH THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MIDLEVEL
MOMENTUM TO SUPPORT A SMALL RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON.

..THOMPSON/HURLBUT.. 09/23/2011

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KLWX [231554]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 231554
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1154 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1139 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 E GRACEHAM 39.61N 77.36W
09/23/2011 FREDERICK MD DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

ROUTE 77 FLOODED AND CLOSED NEAR OWENS CREEK.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1101938

$$

JE

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KLWX [231548]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 231548
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1148 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1139 AM FLASH FLOOD 3 SSE GRACEHAM 39.58N 77.37W
09/23/2011 FREDERICK MD DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

ROUTE 550 FLOODED AND CLOSED NEAR CREAGERSTOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1101937

$$

JE

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KLWX [231531]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 231531
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1131 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1122 AM FLASH FLOOD 3 SSW EMMITSBURG 39.67N 77.35W
09/23/2011 FREDERICK MD DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

A PORTION OF ROUTE 76 IS FLOODED AND CLOSED NEAR ROUTE
15 JUST SOUTH OF MOUNT SAINT MARYS COLLEGE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1101936

$$

JE

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KFFC [231530]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 231530
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1130 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0650 PM TSTM WND DMG 8 N CUMMING 34.32N 84.14W
09/22/2011 FORSYTH GA EMERGENCY MNGR

LOCATION JUST WEST OF SILVER CITY. 5 TREES DOWN. 1 DOWN
ON HOUSE. 3 OF THEM WERE SNAPPED IN HALF. A POWER POLE
WAS SNAPPED.

&&

$$

BLYNN

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KGSP [231507]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 231507
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1107 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1020 AM FLASH FLOOD 3 E CHARLOTTE 35.20N 80.78W
09/23/2011 MECKLENBURG NC OTHER FEDERAL

BRIAR CREEK FLOODING SHAMROCK DRIVE. VERIFIED WITH
WEBCAM.

1040 AM FLASH FLOOD 2 SW STALLINGS 35.07N 80.71W
09/23/2011 UNION NC 911 CALL CENTER

REPORT OF CHESTNUT LANE FLOODED BY CREEK IN THE STALLINGS
AREA.

&&

$$

ARK

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KJAN [231503]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KJAN 231503
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1003 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0752 PM TSTM WND GST 6 N EUDORA 33.21N 91.26W
09/22/2011 M50.00 MPH CHICOT AR MESONET

MEASURED AT ARKANSAS PLANT BOARD MESONET SITE

0800 PM TSTM WND DMG EUDORA 33.12N 91.26W
09/22/2011 CHICOT AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE ON A HOUSE. REPORTED BY CHICOT S.O.

0800 PM TSTM WND DMG EUDORA 33.12N 91.26W
09/22/2011 CHICOT AR PUBLIC

TREES ACROSS ROAD

0835 PM TSTM WND DMG ARCOLA 33.27N 90.88W
09/22/2011 WASHINGTON MS COUNTY OFFICIAL

DOWNED TREES IN THE CEMETERY AND ON POPLAR AND OAK
STREETS.

&&

$$

BURSE

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KJAN [231502]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 231502
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1002 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 PM TSTM WND DMG EUDORA 33.12N 91.26W
09/22/2011 CHICOT AR PUBLIC

TREES ACROSS ROAD

&&

$$

BURSE

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KJAN [231501]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 231501
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1001 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 PM TSTM WND DMG EUDORA 33.12N 91.26W
09/22/2011 CHICOT AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE ON A HOUSE. REPORTED BY CHICOT S.O.

&&

$$

BURSE

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KJAX [231458]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 231458
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1058 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1025 AM FUNNEL CLOUD 15 NE MAYPORT 30.54N 81.23W
09/23/2011 AMZ452 FL OTHER FEDERAL

MAYPORT NAVAL OBSERVER REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD 15 MILES
NORTHEAST OF MAYPORT. FUNNEL CLOUD DISSIPATED AT 1036 AM
EDT.

&&

$$

MZ

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KJAN [231444]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 231444
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
943 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0835 PM TSTM WND DMG ARCOLA 33.27N 90.88W
09/22/2011 WASHINGTON MS COUNTY OFFICIAL

DOWNED TREES IN THE CEMETERY AND ON POPLAR AND OAK
STREETS.

&&

$$

AWEBER

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KCAE [231443]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCAE 231443
LSRCAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1043 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0915 AM FLASH FLOOD COLUMBIA 34.04N 80.89W
09/23/2011 RICHLAND SC LAW ENFORCEMENT

LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED MULTIPLE AREAS OF FLOODING WITH
A FEW CARS STUCK IN THE WATER IN DOWNTOWN COLUMBIA.
SEWERS OVERFLOWING IN THE ROSEWOOD COMMUNITY. MINOR
FLOODING IN 5 POINTS AND FLOODING ALONG ROCKY BRANCH
CREEK ESPECIALLY AT THE INTERSECTION OF WHALEY AND MAIN
STREETS. ROCKY BRANCH CRESTED AT 9.2 FT AT PICKENS ST.
AND AT 10.5 FEET AT WHALEY ST.. IN APPROXIMATELY 90
MINUTES...3.13 INCHES OF RAIN FELL AT OWENS FIELD...2.24
INCHES FELL AT THE NWS GAUGE AT USC.

&&

$$

VAUGHAN

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KGSP [231417]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 231417
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1017 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM FLASH FLOOD 3 SE CHARLOTTE 35.17N 80.79W
09/23/2011 MECKLENBURG NC OTHER FEDERAL

MCMULLEN CREEK IS FLOODING ADDISON DRIVE. FLOODING
VERIFIED WITH WEBCAM.

&&

$$

MCAVOY

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KFGZ [231329]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 231329
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
629 AM MST FRI SEP 23 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0523 PM TORNADO 1 N ARIZONA SNOWBOWL 35.36N 111.70W
09/14/2011 COCONINO AZ FOREST SERVICE

STORM SURVEY REVEALS SIGNIFICANT FOREST DAMAGE ALONG
HUMPHREYS TRAIL NEAR SNOWBOWL NEAR THE 10K FT ELEVATION.
PRELIMINARY RATING EF2.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1100265

$$

CO

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 231235
SWODY1
SPC AC 231234

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0734 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2011

VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY...

STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY WILL ROTATE NNEWD
THROUGH ERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW...SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MIDLEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. IN
THE LOW LEVELS...WEAK FRONTAL WAVE WILL DEVELOP NWD THROUGH THE
UPPER OH VALLEY INTO SWRN ONTARIO WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCES
EWD THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS.

WHILE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT
WILL LIMIT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION TODAY...THE NEWD PROGRESSION OF
MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT MAY YIELD SOME CLOUD BREAKS AND POCKETS OF WEAK
INSTABILITY. FRONTAL ASCENT COUPLED WITH INCREASED LARGE-SCALE
FORCING ATTENDANT TO ABOVE-MENTIONED VORTICITY MAXIMUM MAY FOSTER AN
INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON FROM WRN PARTS OF NY/PA INTO
THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. DESPITE STRENGTHENING MID- AND HIGH-FLOW
FLOW AND RESULTANT LENGTHENING HODOGRAPHS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT BULK OF POTENTIAL BUOYANCY WILL RESIDE GENERALLY BELOW
500 MB WHERE WIND FIELD WILL BE WEAKER. THIS COMBINED WITH THE WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LIMIT ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
LATER TODAY.

...CAROLINAS TO MID-ATLANTIC COAST...

MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER THE
SRN APPALACHIANS WHICH WILL CONTINUE NNEWD TODAY WITHIN
DEEP-MERIDIONAL FLOW REGIME PRESENT DOWNSTREAM FROM GREAT LAKES
UPPER LOW. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE IS
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND PW VALUES OF 1.5-2.0+ INCHES. HERE
TOO...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION...WITH MLCAPE VALUES REMAINING GENERALLY BELOW 1000
J/KG ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WINDS BY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...RESULTING IN VERTICALLY
VEERING WIND PROFILES AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ROTATING STORMS.
WHILE LOCALLY DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO ARE
POSSIBLE...THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

..MEAD/ROGERS.. 09/23/2011

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 230816
SWOD48
SPC AC 230815

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0315 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2011

VALID 261200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN SOME DISAGREEMENT REGARDING
THE SPEED/MOVEMENT OF THE OH VALLEY UPPER LOW. GFS IS A BIT FASTER
EJECTING THIS SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF...APPARENTLY DUE TO STRONGER MID
LEVEL FLOW THAT DIGS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. DESPITE THE
TIMING DIFFERENCES OF THESE TWO MODELS...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
DOWNSTREAM SHOULD REMAIN A BIT TOO MEAGER TO WARRANT AN ORGANIZED
SEVERE THREAT THIS PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 09/23/2011

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 230650
SWODY3
SPC AC 230649

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2011

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...SYNOPSIS...

DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION WILL PERIODICALLY DEVELOP OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS BENEATH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW THAT WILL SETTLE
INTO THE IL/IND REGION. IN THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT...DUE MOSTLY TO THE EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC NATURE OF THIS
SYSTEM...DIURNAL HEATING WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN POTENTIAL ROBUST
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT LAPSE RATES
MAY STEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR STRONG STORMS FROM MIDDLE TN...SWWD
INTO NRN LA. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVOLUTION IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO WARRANT SEVERE PROBS DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD.

OTHER STORMS...WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...WILL ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND SERN U.S.
INSTABILITY/SHEAR AND FORCING DO NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY A
RISK OF SEVERE ACROSS THIS REGION.

..DARROW.. 09/23/2011

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KBMX [230617]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 230617
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
117 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0426 AM HAIL CENTRE 34.15N 85.67W
09/22/2011 E0.88 INCH CHEROKEE AL PUBLIC

&&

$$

LINHARES

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KBMX [230615]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 230615
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
115 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1215 AM HEAVY RAIN LEEDS 33.55N 86.56W
09/23/2011 E6.00 INCH JEFFERSON AL EMERGENCY MNGR

RAIN AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES WERE REPORTED NEAR LEEDS. A
LANDSLIDE OCCURRED DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN NEAR DUNNAVANT
ROAD. SEVERAL LARGE ROCKS BLOCKED THE ROADWAY.

&&

$$

LINHARES

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 230522
SWODY2
SPC AC 230521

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2011

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW MAY ACTUALLY RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY OVER NRN
IND/IL REGION WITH LARGE SCALE SUPPORT EXPECTED TO REMAIN FRAGMENTED
AND GENERALLY WEAK. PRE FRONTAL AIR MASS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST WITH PWAT VALUES AOA 2 INCHES IN MOST
COASTAL REGIONS FROM FL/GA...NWD INTO SRN MD/DE. IN THE ABSENCE OF
STEEP LAPSE RATES IT APPEARS UPDRAFTS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY
WEAK...DESPITE THE DEEPER SHEAR THAT WOULD OTHERWISE POTENTIALLY AID
ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP IMMEDIATELY BENEATH THE
UPPER LOW FROM SRN MI...SWD INTO SERN MO. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WANE IN THE ABSENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING.

OTHER HIGH BASED STORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY FROM THE
LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...NWWD ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA
NEVADA MOUNTAINS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH COOL MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL DRIFT ACROSS SRN CA DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL
ENSURE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR
AT LEAST A FEW STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

..DARROW.. 09/23/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 230507
SWODY1
SPC AC 230504

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1204 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2011

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER MIDWEST CLOSED LOW WILL BECOME
CUT-OFF FROM THE STRONGER WESTERLIES DURING THIS PERIOD. THE CENTER
OF THE LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS BEFORE
BEGINNING TO RETROGRADE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. UPSTREAM
...MID/UPPER RIDGING LIKELY WILL PERSIST ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES...WHILE A TROUGH CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD NEAR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
COAST...AHEAD OF A LARGER AND MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH SHIFTING
EASTWARD WITHIN THE WESTERLIES...ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

THE EVOLVING PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR ANY MORE CONDUCIVE TO
SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW AND TROUGH IN THE
EAST. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE CALIFORNIA
IMPULSE.

...WRN SLOPES OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS INTO LWR GREAT LAKES...
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW...COUPLED WITH FORCING
AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE PROGGED TO
LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION...MAY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
TODAY. WITH THE MID-LEVEL COLD CORE REMAINING GENERALLY UPSTREAM OF
THE WARM SECTOR...LAPSE RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO STEEPEN
SUBSTANTIALLY. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER COULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING TO SUPPORT
MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO AROUND 500 J/KG. IF THIS OCCURS...ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE
QUESTION...INCLUDING A LOW RISK FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.

...LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MODERATELY
STRONG /30-40+ KTS AT 850 MB/ TODAY IN A BELT NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. GIVEN AT LEAST WEAK CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY WITHIN A
PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR /CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE
WATER IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND 70F+ SURFACE DEW
POINTS/...ENLARGING...CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS APPEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF LOW POTENTIAL FOR STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS...PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES. HOWEVER...MUCH WILL DEPEND ON
THE EXTENT OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...WHICH REMAINS
UNCLEAR DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND
ASSOCIATED AREAS OF PRECIPITATION.

..KERR.. 09/23/2011

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