SWODY3
SPC AC 230649
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 AM CDT FRI SEP 23 2011
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION WILL PERIODICALLY DEVELOP OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS BENEATH THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW THAT WILL SETTLE
INTO THE IL/IND REGION. IN THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT...DUE MOSTLY TO THE EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC NATURE OF THIS
SYSTEM...DIURNAL HEATING WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN POTENTIAL ROBUST
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT LAPSE RATES
MAY STEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR STRONG STORMS FROM MIDDLE TN...SWWD
INTO NRN LA. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVOLUTION IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO WARRANT SEVERE PROBS DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD.
OTHER STORMS...WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...WILL ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND SERN U.S.
INSTABILITY/SHEAR AND FORCING DO NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY A
RISK OF SEVERE ACROSS THIS REGION.
..DARROW.. 09/23/2011
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