KFGF [050335]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KFGF 050335
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
1035 PM CDT THU OCT 04 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1220 AM HAIL 1 ESE NASHUA 46.03N 96.29W
09/21/2007 E1.75 INCH WILKIN MN PUBLIC

1220 AM HAIL 6 W WENDELL 46.04N 96.23W
09/21/2007 E2.00 INCH GRANT MN PUBLIC

0114 AM HAIL BATTLE LAKE 46.29N 95.72W
09/21/2007 E0.75 INCH OTTER TAIL MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

0126 AM HAIL 4 NE FERGUS FALLS 46.32N 96.01W
09/21/2007 M1.00 INCH OTTER TAIL MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0149 AM HAIL WRIGHTSTOWN 46.27N 95.19W
09/21/2007 E1.00 INCH OTTER TAIL MN TRAINED SPOTTER

NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL

0200 AM HAIL 6 ESE HAWLEY 46.84N 96.20W
09/21/2007 E0.88 INCH CLAY MN PUBLIC

0205 AM HAIL VERNDALE 46.40N 95.01W
09/21/2007 E0.88 INCH WADENA MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

0205 AM HAIL 2 W LAKE PARK 46.88N 96.14W
09/21/2007 E0.88 INCH BECKER MN PUBLIC

0215 AM HAIL 7 NE PERHAM 46.67N 95.47W
09/21/2007 E1.00 INCH OTTER TAIL MN PUBLIC

QUARTER-SIZE HAIL INTERMITTENT FOR APPROX ONE-HALF HOUR.
A FEW THREE-INCH DIAMETER LIMBS BROKEN OFF TREES.

0245 AM HAIL VALLEY CITY 46.92N 98.01W
09/21/2007 E0.75 INCH BARNES ND CO-OP OBSERVER

0255 AM HAIL 1 E HORACE 46.76N 96.88W
09/21/2007 E1.00 INCH CASS ND TRAINED SPOTTER

0300 AM HAIL FARGO 46.88N 96.82W
09/21/2007 E2.00 INCH CASS ND TRAINED SPOTTER

0304 AM HAIL FARGO 46.88N 96.82W
09/21/2007 E1.75 INCH CASS ND TRAINED SPOTTER

MULTIPLE REPORTS OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN NORTH
FARGO...ONE REPORT OF HAIL APPROACHING GOLF BALL SIZED
HAIL IN NORTH FARGO

0305 AM HAIL 1 N MOORHEAD 46.88N 96.76W
09/21/2007 M1.50 INCH CLAY MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0305 AM HAIL HORACE 46.76N 96.90W
09/21/2007 M0.75 INCH CASS ND AMATEUR RADIO

0309 AM HAIL DILWORTH 46.88N 96.70W
09/21/2007 M1.75 INCH CLAY MN TRAINED SPOTTER

REPORTS OF QUARTER AND GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL IN DILWORTH

0310 AM HAIL 4 SSE MOORHEAD 46.81N 96.72W
09/21/2007 M1.00 INCH CLAY MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0310 AM HAIL FARGO 46.88N 96.82W
09/21/2007 E2.75 INCH CASS ND PUBLIC

BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AT 58TH AND UNIVERSITY

0310 AM HAIL FARGO 46.88N 96.82W
09/21/2007 M3.00 INCH CASS ND OTHER FEDERAL

3.50 INCH HAIL FELL AT THE INTERSECTION OF 19TH STREET
SOUTH AND 33RD AVENUE SOUTH.

0313 AM HAIL 6 SE PARK RAPIDS 46.86N 94.97W
09/21/2007 E1.75 INCH HUBBARD MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

DEPUTY CALLED IN REPORT OF HAIL RANGING FROM PEA TO GOLF
BALL SIZED HAIL BETWEEN 313 AM AND 330 AM

0313 AM HAIL FARGO 46.88N 96.82W
09/21/2007 E1.75 INCH CASS ND LAW ENFORCEMENT

REPORT PASSED OVER NAWAS

0317 AM HAIL MOORHEAD 46.86N 96.76W
09/21/2007 E3.00 INCH CLAY MN PUBLIC

REPORT PASSED BY KFGO IN FARGO

0345 AM HAIL 13 N LAKE PARK 47.07N 96.10W
09/21/2007 E0.75 INCH BECKER MN PUBLIC

0502 AM HAIL 5 N SHEVLIN 47.60N 95.26W
09/21/2007 E1.00 INCH CLEARWATER MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0650 AM HAIL WASKISH 48.16N 94.51W
09/21/2007 E1.50 INCH BELTRAMI MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0810 AM HAIL OAKS CORNER 48.42N 94.95W
09/21/2007 E0.88 INCH LAKE OF THE WOODS MN PUBLIC

0835 AM HAIL 2 S CARP 48.48N 94.65W
09/21/2007 E0.75 INCH LAKE OF THE WOODS MN PUBLIC

&&

$$

GGUST

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KKEY [050324]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 050324
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1124 PM EDT THU OCT 04 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0532 PM WATER SPOUT 1 N SUGARLOAF KEY 24.64N 81.55W
10/04/2007 GMZ032 FL TRAINED SPOTTER

A TRAINED STORM SPOTTER REPORTED A WATERSPOUT ABOUT 1
MILE NORTH OF SUGARLOAF KEY AT 532 PM EDT. DURATION 35
MINUTES.

&&

$$

BS

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KEPZ [050320]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEPZ 050320
LSREPZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
920 PM MDT THU OCT 04 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM HAIL 2 S SILVER CITY 32.75N 108.27W
10/04/2007 M0.75 INCH GRANT NM PUBLIC

&&

$$

NOVLAN

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KEPZ [050318]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEPZ 050318
LSREPZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
917 PM MDT THU OCT 04 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM HAIL 5 S SILVER CITY 32.71N 108.27W
10/04/2007 M1.00 INCH GRANT NM TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

NOVLAN

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KEPZ [050316]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEPZ 050316
LSREPZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
916 PM MDT THU OCT 04 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0540 PM HAIL 2 W SILVER CITY 32.78N 108.30W
10/04/2007 M1.00 INCH GRANT NM TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

NOVLAN

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KDDC [050307]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 050307
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1006 PM CDT THU OCT 04 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0930 PM HAIL 1 E NESS CITY 38.45N 99.89W
10/04/2007 E0.75 INCH NESS KS PUBLIC

&&

$$

GERARD

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KGID [050249]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 050249
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
949 PM CDT THU OCT 04 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0739 PM HAIL 1 S LEBANON 39.80N 98.56W
10/04/2007 E0.88 INCH SMITH KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

KING

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KVEF [050149]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 050149
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
649 PM PDT THU OCT 04 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW INDEPENDENCE 36.77N 118.24W
10/04/2007 M56 MPH INYO CA MESONET

OWENS VALLEY MESONET STATION 2 AT AN ELEVATION OF 4842
FEET.

0400 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 WSW INDEPENDENCE 36.77N 118.28W
10/04/2007 M61 MPH INYO CA MESONET

OWENS VALLEY MESONET AT AN ELEVATION OF 5697 FEET.

0521 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SW MERCURY 36.66N 116.02W
10/04/2007 M51 MPH NYE NV ASOS

DESERT ROCK AIRPORT ASOS

0613 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 40 SE LITTLEFIELD 36.48N 113.43W
10/04/2007 M57 MPH MOHAVE AZ MESONET

TWEEDS POINT RAWS STATION

&&

$$

BPIERCE

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KFGF [050107]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KFGF 050107
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
807 PM CDT THU OCT 04 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0835 PM HAIL 3 S BAKER 48.12N 99.65W
09/29/2007 E1.00 INCH BENSON ND PUBLIC

&&

$$

GGUST

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KFGF [050107]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KFGF 050107
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
806 PM CDT THU OCT 04 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0633 PM HAIL 10 N BEMIDJI 47.63N 94.88W
09/28/2007 E1.75 INCH BELTRAMI MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

THE HAIL RANGED IN SIZE FROM 0.50 TO 1.75 INCHES.

&&

$$

GGUST

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KFGF [050106]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KFGF 050106
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
806 PM CDT THU OCT 04 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 NW GILBY 48.10N 97.50W
09/23/2007 GRAND FORKS ND PUBLIC

ABOUT 12 TREES KNOCKED DOWN

1030 PM TSTM WND DMG LANCASTER 48.86N 96.80W
09/23/2007 KITTSON MN CO-OP OBSERVER

1 LARGE POPLAR TREE KNOCKED DOWN

&&

$$

GGUST

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KGJT [050106]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 050106 CCA
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
704 PM MDT THU OCT 04 2007
CORRECTION TO TIMES

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0524 PM TSTM WND GST GRAND JUNCTION 39.09N 108.55W
10/04/2007 M60 MPH MESA CO ASOS

0527 PM TSTM WND GST PALISADE 39.11N 108.36W
10/04/2007 M67 MPH MESA CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

JSMITH

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KGJT [050105]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 050105
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
704 PM MDT THU OCT 04 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0703 PM TSTM WND GST GRAND JUNCTION 39.09N 108.55W
10/04/2007 M60 MPH MESA CO ASOS

0703 PM TSTM WND GST PALISADE 39.11N 108.36W
10/04/2007 M67 MPH MESA CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

JSMITH

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 050057
SWODY1
SPC AC 050054

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 PM CDT THU OCT 04 2007

VALID 050100Z - 051200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS N-CENTRAL KS TO SWRN
MN....

..SYNOPSIS...
IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...PRIMARY FEATURE FOR REMAINDER PERIOD WILL BE
AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER PACIFIC COAST STATES...WHILE RIDGING
PREDOMINATED FROM MID-ATLANTIC REGION SWWD TO N-CENTRAL MEX.
FARTHER S..ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR ZONE WILL PERSIST
OVER NWRN THROUGH SWRN GULF. ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION --
NEAR 27.5N91.5W AS OF 04/23Z...SHOULD CONTINUE DRIFTING WWD TO WNWWD
ACROSS OPEN GULF WATERS. SEVERAL MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATIONS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN SWLY FLOW BELT AHEAD OF PACIFIC
COAST TROUGH. ONE IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER WRN
KS...ANOTHER LIFTING NEWD FROM NERN AZ/SERN UT INTO SWRN CO...AND
ANOTHER OVER SWRN/S-CENTRAL AZ.

AT SFC...WAVE FRONTAL ZONE IS ANALYZED FROM SERN WY ESEWD ACROSS SRN
NEB PANHANDLE...THEN NEWD OVER N-CENTRAL NEB...SERN
SD...SWRN/S-CENTRAL MN. WRN PORTION OF THIS FRONT SHOULD LIFT NWD
ACROSS NWRN NEB AND ERN WY OVERNIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED LEE
TROUGHING AND EARLY-STAGE CYCLOGENESIS OVER WY. FARTHER E...FRONT
SHOULD DRIFT N MORE SLOWLY...ACROSS SERN SD AND SRN MN.

..CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS...
SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER N-CENTRAL KS AND PORTIONS
S-CENTRAL/SERN NEB. DAMAGING GUSTS AND ISOLATED...MOSTLY MRGLLY SVR
HAIL...ARE POSSIBLE. TORNADO THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
APPEARS STRONGLY TIED TO STORM-SCALE AND BOUNDARY PROCESSES GIVEN
LACK OF MORE ROBUST EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. BECAUSE OF S OF WARM
FRONT...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG SRN RIM OF
FORMER CLOUD COVER AREA FROM MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY
EXTENDS FROM NWRN IA SWWD ACROSS MO RIVER JUST N OMA...TO ABOUT 30
SE HSI...TO KS/NEB BORDER NE HLC. THIS INTERSECTS ANOTHER SUCH
BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS SWWD BETWEEN HYS-HLC..BECOMING DIFFUSE ACROSS
W-CENTRAL KS. FLOW N OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES REMAINS
BACKED...WITH RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUING. ENLARGED
LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND N OF
BOUNDARIES...CONTINUING 0-1 KM SRH 200-300 J/KG NOW SHOWN IN
VWP/PROFILER DATA. WEAKNESSES IN MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL LIMIT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. PRIND SVR POTENTIAL WITH ONGOING ACTIVITY MAY BE
MAXIMIZED AS CONVECTION INTERACTS WITH BOUNDARY DURING REMAINDER
EVENING.

TRENDS WILL BE TOWARD PROGRESSIVELY MORE ELEVATED INFLOW-LAYER
PARCELS WITH TIME TONIGHT...AS AIR MASS SLOWLY COOLS IN MOIST SECTOR
E OF DRYLINE AND SE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. CAPPING NOTED IN OAX RAOB
MAY LIMIT EWD EXTENT OF DEVELOPMENT. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD
INCREASE AND SPREAD/EXPAND NNEWD TOWARD SRN MN...WITH WIND POTENTIAL
SLOWLY DIMINISHING AND OCCASIONAL HAIL STILL POSSIBLE.

..SWRN CONUS...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ATOP DIURNALLY HEATED PLUME OF
40S/50S F SFC DEW POINTS OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN/ERN AZ AND WRN
NM. NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES ARE
EXPECTED...WITH FAST-MOVING CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STG/ISOLATED
SVR GUSTS AND HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST AND BE SFC-BASED
FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS UNTIL SFC COOLING REMOVES BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE.

...SRN PLAINS...
CLUSTERS OF OUTFLOW-DOMINANT MULTICELLULAR CONVECTION CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS PERMIAN BASIN/W-CENTRAL TX...NE MAF...AS WELL AS SW FST
INTO BIG BEND REGION. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN WEAK.
PRIND SVR POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY -- ALREADY MRGL -- WILL
DIMINISH FURTHER THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING AS AIR MASS STABILIZES
FROM COMBINATION OF DIABATIC COOLING AND OUTFLOW PROCESSES.
STRONGER CELLS STILL MAY PRODUCE GUSTS/HAIL APCHG SVR LEVELS.

.EDWARDS.. 10/05/2007

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KFGF [050056]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KFGF 050056
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
756 PM CDT THU OCT 04 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1220 AM HAIL 2 SE NASHUA 46.02N 96.28W
09/21/2007 E1.75 INCH GRANT MN PUBLIC

1220 AM HAIL 6 W WENDELL 46.04N 96.23W
09/21/2007 E2.00 INCH GRANT MN PUBLIC

0114 AM HAIL BATTLE LAKE 46.29N 95.72W
09/21/2007 E0.75 INCH OTTER TAIL MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

0126 AM HAIL 4 NE FERGUS FALLS 46.32N 96.01W
09/21/2007 M1.00 INCH OTTER TAIL MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0149 AM HAIL WRIGHTSTOWN 46.27N 95.19W
09/21/2007 E1.00 INCH OTTER TAIL MN TRAINED SPOTTER

NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL

0200 AM HAIL 6 ESE HAWLEY 46.84N 96.20W
09/21/2007 E0.88 INCH CLAY MN PUBLIC

0205 AM HAIL VERNDALE 46.40N 95.01W
09/21/2007 E0.88 INCH WADENA MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

0205 AM HAIL 2 W LAKE PARK 46.88N 96.14W
09/21/2007 E0.88 INCH BECKER MN PUBLIC

0215 AM HAIL 7 NE PERHAM 46.67N 95.47W
09/21/2007 E1.00 INCH OTTER TAIL MN PUBLIC

QUARTER-SIZE HAIL INTERMITTENT FOR APPROX ONE-HALF HOUR.
A FEW THREE-INCH DIAMETER LIMBS BROKEN OFF TREES.

0245 AM HAIL VALLEY CITY 46.92N 98.01W
09/21/2007 E0.75 INCH BARNES ND CO-OP OBSERVER

0255 AM HAIL 1 E HORACE 46.76N 96.88W
09/21/2007 E1.00 INCH CASS ND TRAINED SPOTTER

0300 AM HAIL FARGO 46.88N 96.82W
09/21/2007 E2.00 INCH CASS ND TRAINED SPOTTER

0304 AM HAIL FARGO 46.88N 96.82W
09/21/2007 E1.75 INCH CASS ND TRAINED SPOTTER

MULTIPLE REPORTS OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN NORTH
FARGO...ONE REPORT OF HAIL APPROACHING GOLF BALL SIZED
HAIL IN NORTH FARGO

0305 AM HAIL HORACE 46.76N 96.90W
09/21/2007 M0.75 INCH CASS ND AMATEUR RADIO

0305 AM HAIL 1 N MOORHEAD 46.88N 96.76W
09/21/2007 M1.50 INCH CLAY MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0309 AM HAIL DILWORTH 46.88N 96.70W
09/21/2007 M1.75 INCH CLAY MN TRAINED SPOTTER

REPORTS OF QUARTER AND GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL IN DILWORTH

0310 AM HAIL FARGO 46.88N 96.82W
09/21/2007 M3.00 INCH CASS ND OTHER FEDERAL

3.50 INCH HAIL FELL AT THE INTERSECTION OF 19TH STREET
SOUTH AND 33RD AVENUE SOUTH.

0310 AM HAIL FARGO 46.88N 96.82W
09/21/2007 E2.75 INCH CASS ND PUBLIC

BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AT 58TH AND UNIVERSITY

0310 AM HAIL 4 SSE MOORHEAD 46.81N 96.72W
09/21/2007 M1.00 INCH CLAY MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0313 AM HAIL 6 SE PARK RAPIDS 46.86N 94.97W
09/21/2007 E1.75 INCH HUBBARD MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

DEPUTY CALLED IN REPORT OF HAIL RANGING FROM PEA TO GOLF
BALL SIZED HAIL BETWEEN 313 AM AND 330 AM

0313 AM HAIL FARGO 46.88N 96.82W
09/21/2007 E1.75 INCH CASS ND LAW ENFORCEMENT

REPORT PASSED OVER NAWAS

0317 AM HAIL MOORHEAD 46.86N 96.76W
09/21/2007 E3.00 INCH CLAY MN PUBLIC

REPORT PASSED BY KFGO IN FARGO

0345 AM HAIL 13 N LAKE PARK 47.07N 96.10W
09/21/2007 E0.75 INCH BECKER MN PUBLIC

0502 AM HAIL 5 N SHEVLIN 47.60N 95.26W
09/21/2007 E1.00 INCH CLEARWATER MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0650 AM HAIL WASKISH 48.16N 94.51W
09/21/2007 E1.50 INCH BELTRAMI MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0810 AM HAIL OAKS CORNER 48.42N 94.95W
09/21/2007 E0.88 INCH LAKE OF THE WOODS MN PUBLIC

0835 AM HAIL 2 S CARP 48.48N 94.65W
09/21/2007 E0.75 INCH LAKE OF THE WOODS MN PUBLIC

&&

$$

GGUST

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KPSR [050056]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 050056
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
556 PM MST THU OCT 04 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0546 PM TSTM WND GST 5 S PHOENIX 33.47N 112.07W
10/04/2007 M60 MPH MARICOPA AZ MESONET

MEASURED AT REMOTE SENSOR ON TOP OF SOUTH MOUNTAIN

&&

$$

KINCAID

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KFGF [050053]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KFGF 050053
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
753 PM CDT THU OCT 04 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1037 AM HAIL CROOKSTON 47.77N 96.61W
09/20/2007 E0.75 INCH POLK MN PUBLIC

GROUND COVERED WITH HAIL.

1050 AM HAIL 9 SE EUCLID 47.88N 96.50W
09/20/2007 E0.88 INCH POLK MN PUBLIC

HAIL COVERED GROUND.

1052 AM HAIL 12 SW THIEF RIVER FALLS 47.99N 96.36W
09/20/2007 E1.00 INCH PENNINGTON MN PUBLIC

1052 AM HAIL 1 S WYLIE 47.95N 96.35W
09/20/2007 E1.00 INCH RED LAKE MN PUBLIC

1114 AM HAIL 11 E THIEF RIVER FALLS 48.11N 95.94W
09/20/2007 E0.88 INCH PENNINGTON MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

GGUST

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2057

ACUS11 KWNS 050051
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050051
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-050145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2057
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CDT THU OCT 04 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH CENTRAL KS/PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN NEB/WRN
IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 050051Z - 050145Z

TSTMS WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS EVENING FROM NORTH
CENTRAL KS NEWD THROUGH ERN NEB...WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
LATER THIS EVENING INTO WRN IA AND TOWARD THE FSD AREA. ISOLATED
STRONGER STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...WITH A FEW POTENTIALLY
BECOMING SEVERE. WW IS NOT APPARENT AT THIS TIME...BUT CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNS OF GREATER INTENSIFICATION.

REGIONAL RADARS HAVE SHOWN TSTMS INCREASING IN BOTH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY SINCE 23Z ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF
SRN NEB...PRIOR TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS ACTIVITY
DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY WHICH
EXTENDED FROM THE SURFACE LOW LOCATED TO THE S OF HLC AND THEN NEWD
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TO EAST CENTRAL NEB. ALTHOUGH TSTMS HAVE TENDED
TO WEAKEN ONCE THEY TRACK N OF THIS BOUNDARY...TSTMS ALONG AND S OF
THIS BOUNDARY ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40 KT. 00Z OMA SOUNDING INDICATED A MID LEVEL
INVERSION WHICH APPEARS TO BE LIMITING THE COVERAGE THUS FAR FOR
MORE STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SUGGESTS
THAT SURFACE BASED TSTMS SHOULD BECOME LESS LIKELY.

A STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN LOW
LEVEL DESTABILIZATION THROUGH MOISTURE/WARM AIR ADVECTIONS INTO THE
MID MO VALLEY. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME ASCENT ATTENDANT TO NEWD
MOVING MID LEVEL IMPULSE NOW LOCATED OVER NRN KS/SRN NEB WILL
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.

.PETERS.. 10/05/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...

39469820 39389915 40019941 40989883 41909814 42739701
42879564 42259453 40909557 40089697

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KFGF [050049]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KFGF 050049
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
749 PM CDT THU OCT 04 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0720 PM HAIL 11 S HALLOCK 48.61N 96.94W
08/30/2007 E0.75 INCH KITTSON MN PUBLIC

0725 PM HAIL 6 WSW DONALDSON 48.54N 97.02W
08/30/2007 E1.00 INCH KITTSON MN PUBLIC

QUARTER SIZE HAIL. LATE REPORT FROM THURSDAY AUGUST 30TH
2007.

0726 PM HAIL 8 NW STEPHEN 48.53N 97.00W
08/30/2007 E1.00 INCH MARSHALL MN PUBLIC

HAIL CROSSED INTO MARSHALL COUNTY FROM KITTSON COUNTY.

0745 PM HAIL 2 E STEPHEN 48.45N 96.83W
08/30/2007 M0.88 INCH MARSHALL MN NWS EMPLOYEE

HAIL WAS OBSERVED WHILE EMPLOYEE WAS EXAMINING DAMAGE
FROM A PREVIOUS DAYS STORMS.

&&

$$

GGUST

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KFGF [050048]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KFGF 050048
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
748 PM CDT THU OCT 04 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0205 PM HAIL 2 E NORCROSS 45.87N 96.15W
08/27/2007 E0.75 INCH GRANT MN PUBLIC

0310 PM HAIL VERGAS 46.66N 95.80W
08/27/2007 E0.75 INCH OTTER TAIL MN PUBLIC

0315 PM HAIL 2 E FRAZEE 46.73N 95.66W
08/27/2007 E1.00 INCH BECKER MN PUBLIC

0315 PM HAIL 2 NE VALLEY CITY 46.94N 97.98W
08/27/2007 E0.88 INCH BARNES ND PUBLIC

0315 PM HAIL VALLEY CITY 46.92N 98.01W
08/27/2007 E0.88 INCH BARNES ND CO-OP OBSERVER

0324 PM HAIL FRAZEE 46.73N 95.70W
08/27/2007 E1.25 INCH BECKER MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0355 PM HAIL MIDWAY 46.78N 95.26W
08/27/2007 E1.00 INCH BECKER MN PUBLIC

0400 PM HAIL 4 E HILLVIEW 46.68N 95.17W
08/27/2007 E1.00 INCH OTTER TAIL MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0400 PM HAIL 2 S MENAHGA 46.72N 95.10W
08/27/2007 E0.88 INCH WADENA MN PUBLIC

COVERED THE LAWN.

0410 PM HAIL 8 W CALLAWAY 46.98N 96.08W
08/27/2007 E0.75 INCH BECKER MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0514 PM TSTM WND GST PARK RAPIDS 46.92N 95.06W
08/27/2007 M60.00 MPH HUBBARD MN ASOS

0522 PM HAIL 7 E PARK RAPIDS 46.92N 94.91W
08/27/2007 E0.88 INCH HUBBARD MN PUBLIC

0652 PM HAIL 6 NE BARNESVILLE 46.71N 96.33W
08/27/2007 E1.00 INCH CLAY MN PUBLIC

0725 PM HAIL 8 WNW VERGAS 46.70N 95.96W
08/27/2007 E0.88 INCH OTTER TAIL MN PUBLIC

0730 PM HAIL 7 SSE DETROIT LAKES 46.72N 95.79W
08/27/2007 E0.88 INCH BECKER MN PUBLIC

&&

$$

GGUST

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KFGF [050046]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KFGF 050046
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
746 PM CDT THU OCT 04 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 PM HAIL 2 SE MILTON 48.61N 98.01W
08/26/2007 E1.75 INCH CAVALIER ND LAW ENFORCEMENT

MOSTLY PENNY TO DIME WITH SOME GOLFBALL HAIL

0645 PM HAIL 4 S TOLNA 47.77N 98.44W
08/26/2007 E0.75 INCH NELSON ND PUBLIC

0645 PM HAIL 2 WNW UNION 48.57N 97.99W
08/26/2007 E0.75 INCH CAVALIER ND PUBLIC

0650 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 5 W UNION 48.56N 98.06W
08/26/2007 CAVALIER ND PUBLIC

FUNNEL WAS OBSERVED FROM ABOUT 2 WNW OF UNION. NO
TOUCHDOWN WAS OBSERVED BUT FUNNEL WAS WELL DEFINED.

0655 PM TORNADO 3 W UNION 48.56N 98.01W
08/26/2007 F0 CAVALIER ND TRAINED SPOTTER

THIS TORNADO TRACKED INTERMITTENTLY TO THE ENE AND PASSED
ABOUT A MILE NORTH OF UNION...THEN CROSSED INTO PEMBINA
COUNTY ABOUT 1 NE OF UNION AROUND 703 PM CDT. IT
CONTINUED INTO PEMBINA COUNTY FOR ANOTHER MILE BEFORE
DISSIPATING. NO DAMAGE WAS REPORTED. THE HIGHLY VISIBLE
FUNNEL AND ITS INTERMITTENT CONTACT WERE VIEWED AND
REPORTED BY SEVERAL SPOTTERS IN PEMBINA AND WALSH
COUNTIES. MAXIMUM WIDTH ESTIMATED AT 30 YARDS. PEAK WINDS
ESTIMATED AT 70 MPH.

0700 PM HAIL 7 SE MILTON 48.56N 97.94W
08/26/2007 E1.75 INCH CAVALIER ND PUBLIC

0700 PM HAIL 3 NW MCVILLE 47.80N 98.22W
08/26/2007 E1.00 INCH NELSON ND PUBLIC

0703 PM TORNADO 2 WSW GARDAR 48.58N 97.90W
08/26/2007 F0 PEMBINA ND TRAINED SPOTTER

THIS TORNADO CONTINUED FROM ABOUT 1NE OF UNION...IN
CAVALIER COUNTY...INTO PEMBINA COUNTY. IT TRACKED FOR AN
ADDITIONAL 1 MILE AND ENDED ABOUT 1.5 WSW OF GARDAR BY
705 PM CDT. NO DAMAGE WAS REPORTED BY THE FUNNEL AND
INTERMOTTENT CONTACT WAS VIEWED BY SPOTTERS AT DISTANCES
OF 5 TO 15 MILES AWAY. MAXIMUM WIDTH ESTIMATED AT 30
YEARDS. PEAK WINDS ESTIMATED AT 70 MPH.

0711 PM HAIL EDINBURG 48.50N 97.86W
08/26/2007 E1.75 INCH WALSH ND LAW ENFORCEMENT

0715 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 8 WNW HOOPLE 48.58N 97.80W
08/26/2007 PEMBINA ND FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

LOOKING WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS UNION FROM HOOPLE.
DISTANCE IS APPROXIMATE. TIME APPROXIMATE.

0720 PM TORNADO 5 WSW CRYSTAL 48.57N 97.77W
08/26/2007 F1 PEMBINA ND NWS STORM SURVEY

THIS TORNADO TRACKED ESE FOR ABOUT 3 MILES AND THEN
CROSSED INTO WALSH COUNTY AROUND 3.5 SSW OF CRYSTAL BY
726 PM CDT. NUMEROUS TREES WERE KNOCKED DOWN IN SHELTER
BELTS ALONG ITS PATH. MAXIMUM WIDTH MEASURED AT 100
YARDS. PEAK WINDS ESTIMATED AT 90 MPH.

0725 PM HAIL CRYSTAL 48.60N 97.67W
08/26/2007 E1.75 INCH PEMBINA ND LAW ENFORCEMENT

0726 PM TORNADO 3 W HOOPLE 48.54N 97.70W
08/26/2007 F1 WALSH ND NWS STORM SURVEY

THIS TORNADO CONTINUED FROM PEMBINA COUNTY...AND TRACKED
FOR ABOUT 2 MORE MILES. IT LIFTED ABOUT 1.5 MILES WEST OF
HOOPLE BY 730 PM CDT. TOTAL PATH LENGTH IN PEMBINA AND
WALSH COUNTIES WAS AROUND 5 MILES. MAXIMUM WIDTH WAS
MEASURED AT 100 YARDS. PEAK WINDS ESTIMATED AT 90 MPH.

0730 PM HAIL HOOPLE 48.54N 97.64W
08/26/2007 E1.75 INCH WALSH ND LAW ENFORCEMENT

0730 PM HAIL 3 S CRYSTAL 48.56N 97.67W
08/26/2007 E1.75 INCH PEMBINA ND PUBLIC

0730 PM HAIL 13 S CAVALIER 48.61N 97.62W
08/26/2007 E1.00 INCH PEMBINA ND LAW ENFORCEMENT

0730 PM HAIL HOOPLE 48.54N 97.64W
08/26/2007 E1.75 INCH WALSH ND FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

SIGNIFICANT HAIL DAMAGE IN THE CITY OF HOOPLE.
ESSENTIALLY EVERY HOUSE SUSTAINED SOME TYPE OF DAMAGE AS
WELL AS WIND DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE AS WELL REPORTED.

0732 PM HAIL HOOPLE 48.54N 97.64W
08/26/2007 E1.00 INCH WALSH ND LAW ENFORCEMENT

0735 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 SE HOOPLE 48.49N 97.58W
08/26/2007 WALSH ND FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

NUMEROUS TREES BLOWN DOWN IN FARMSTEAD. DIAMETER UNKNOWN.

0735 PM HAIL 2 S HOOPLE 48.51N 97.64W
08/26/2007 E2.75 INCH WALSH ND FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

MOSTLY GOLFBALL HAIL...LARGEST HAIL APPEARED TO BE
AGGREGATE TYPE.

0740 PM TORNADO 3 NW NASH 48.50N 97.56W
08/26/2007 F0 WALSH ND NWS STORM SURVEY

ORIGINALLY REPORTED AS NUMEROUS PUBLIC CALLS TO 911
DISPATCH IN GRAFTON ND. THE TORNADO TRACKED FOR ABOUT 3
MILES TO 1.8 NNE OF NASH BY 746 PM CDT. NUMEROUS BRANCHES
WERE BROKEN DOWN AND SEVERAL TREE TOPS SNAPPED OFF IN
SHELTER BELTS AND ALONG THE NORTH BRANCH OF THE PARK
RIVER NEAR NASH.

0800 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 4 NNE ANETA 47.73N 97.96W
08/26/2007 NELSON ND LAW ENFORCEMENT

SHERIFF REPORTED FUNNEL CLOUD JUST NORTHEAST OF THE
INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAYS 15 AND 32

0804 PM HAIL PETERSBURG 48.01N 98.00W
08/26/2007 E1.00 INCH NELSON ND TRAINED SPOTTER

0804 PM TORNADO 6 NNE ANETA 47.76N 97.94W
08/26/2007 F3 NELSON ND NWS STORM SURVEY

THIS TORNADO WAS VIEWED AND REPORTED BY SPOTTERS IN GRAND
FORKS...NELSON AND STEELE COUNTIES. IT TRACKED NNE FOR
ABOUT 5 MILES...THEN CROSSED INTO GRAND FORKS COUNTY
AROUND 814 PM CDT...WHERE IT CONTINUED FOR ANOTHER MILE.
THIS TORNADO DESTROYED STEEL GRAIN BINS...A GARAGE AND
FARM OUTBUILDINGS AT 3 FARMSTEADS. IT KILLED 5 BUFFALO
AND CARRIED AND COMPLETED DISMANTLED A COMBINE. GRAVEL
ROADS WERE DEEPLY SCARRED BY DEBRIS. MAXIMUM WIDTH WAS
MEASURED AT 0.33 MILES. PEAK WINDS ESTIMATED AT 150 MPH.

0810 PM HAIL 7 N GRAFTON 48.52N 97.40W
08/26/2007 M1.00 INCH WALSH ND CO-OP OBSERVER

0814 PM TORNADO 3 WNW LOGAN CENTER 47.82N 97.88W
08/26/2007 F3 GRAND FORKS ND NWS STORM SURVEY

THIS TORNADO CONTINUED FROM NELSON COUNTY. IT TRACKED FOR
AN ADDITIONAL MILE INTO GRAND FORKS COUNTY...ENDING ABOUT
3 NNW OF LOGAN CENTER AROUND 816 PM CDT. IT LOFTED AND
DESTROYED A SECOND COMBINE IN GRAND FORKS COUNTY BEFORE
IT LIFTED. TOTAL TRACK LENGTH IN NELSON AND GRAND FORKS
COUNTIES WAS 6 MILES. MAXIMUM WIDTH 0.33 MILES. PEAK
WINDS ESTIMATED AT 150 MPH.

0815 PM HAIL 6 S LARIMORE 47.82N 97.63W
08/26/2007 E1.00 INCH GRAND FORKS ND LAW ENFORCEMENT

0815 PM HAIL 3 N NIAGARA 48.04N 97.87W
08/26/2007 E1.75 INCH GRAND FORKS ND LAW ENFORCEMENT

0818 PM TSTM WND GST 2 W DONALDSON 48.57N 96.94W
08/26/2007 M67.00 MPH KITTSON MN MESONET

REPORTED BY MNDOT RWIS

0827 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 8 WSW NORTHWOOD 47.69N 97.73W
08/26/2007 GRAND FORKS ND STORM CHASER

0842 PM TORNADO 2 WSW NORTHWOOD 47.72N 97.61W
08/26/2007 F4 GRAND FORKS ND LAW ENFORCEMENT

*** 1 FATAL, 18 INJ *** THIS TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN ABOUT
2.5 WSW OF NORTHWOOD. IT QUICKLY GREW IN SIZE AND
STRENGTH AS IT CROSSED THE GOOSE RIVER...THE NORTHWOOD
AIRPORT AND THEN COMPLETELY ENGULFED THE COMMUNITY OF
NORTHWOOD ND. THE CENTRAL HOUSING AND BUSINESS AREAS
RECEIVED EF2 TO EF3 DAMAGE. THE NORTHEAST INDUSTRIAL AREA
RECEIVED EF4 DAMAGE. THE TORNADO DISSIPATED 2 MILES ENE
OF NORTHWOOD BY 854 PM CDT. TOTAL TRACK LENGTH WAS 5
MILES. MAXIMUM TRACK WIDTH WAS MEASURED AT 0.80 MILES.
PEAK WINDS WERE 170 MPH.

0843 PM TSTM WND GST 8 ENE STEPHEN 48.50N 96.72W
08/26/2007 M65.50 MPH MARSHALL MN MESONET

MEASURED 65.5 MPH WINDS BY NDAWN WIND SENSOR.

0843 PM TORNADO 2 WSW FLORIAN 48.43N 96.67W
08/26/2007 F1 MARSHALL MN TRAINED SPOTTER

TORNADO TRACKED FOR ROUGHLY 3 MILES TO ABOUT 1.2 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF FLORIAN BY 849 PM CDT. THE TORNADO JUST
BRUSHED THE NORTH SIDE OF THE MARSHALL COUNTY PARK. IT
THEN TOOK THE ROOF OFF AND OLD GRANARY AND BLEW DOWN
ANOTHER OLD BUILDING AT A VACANT FARMSITE ABOUT 1 MILE
SOUTH OF FLORIAN. THE MAXIMUM WIDTH OF THIS TORNADO WAS
ABOUT 150 YARDS. PEAK WINDS ESTIMATED AT 105 MPH.

0855 PM TSTM WND DMG 8 NE KARLSTAD 48.66N 96.39W
08/26/2007 KITTSON MN PUBLIC

SEVERAL LARGE BRANCHES BROKEN DOWN JUST EAST OF PELAN.

0907 PM TSTM WND GST 1 SSW GREENBUSH 48.68N 96.19W
08/26/2007 E63.00 MPH ROSEAU MN NEWSPAPER

WINDS BLEW INTO THE OPENED DOORWAY OF A HANGAR AT THE
GREENBUSH AIRPORT CAUSING THE BUILDING TO COLLAPSE.

0915 PM HAIL 8 SW GRAND FORKS 47.83N 97.19W
08/26/2007 E0.75 INCH GRAND FORKS ND LAW ENFORCEMENT

HAIL IN MERRIFIELD

0918 PM TORNADO 9 SW GRAND FORKS 47.82N 97.21W
08/26/2007 F1 GRAND FORKS ND PUBLIC

THIS TORNADO TRACKED FOR NEARLY 5 MILES TO AROUND 5 SSW
OF GRAND FORKS BY 930 PM CDT. IT PASSED ABOUT A HALF MILE
SOUTH OF MERRIFIELD ND AND WAS VIEWED BY MOTORISTS AS IT
CROSSED INTERSTATE 29 NEAR MP 135. TREES WERE RAVAGED AND
UPROOTED AT SEVERAL FARMSTEADS AND HOMESTEADS ALONG ITS 5
MILE LONG AND 150 YARDS WIDE PATH. PEAK WINDS ESTIMATED
AT 90 MPH.

0920 PM HAIL 6 W MIDDLE RIVER 48.44N 96.29W
08/26/2007 E1.50 INCH MARSHALL MN PUBLIC

0933 PM HAIL GRAND FORKS 47.92N 97.07W
08/26/2007 E0.75 INCH GRAND FORKS ND TRAINED SPOTTER

0933 PM HAIL GRAND FORKS 47.92N 97.07W
08/26/2007 E0.75 INCH GRAND FORKS ND PUBLIC

METEOROLOGY STUDENT ON CAMPUS OF UND

0944 PM TSTM WND DMG MIDDLE RIVER 48.44N 96.16W
08/26/2007 MARSHALL MN TRAINED SPOTTER

3 TO 5 INCH DIAMETER TREE BRANCHES DOWN AND 1/2 INCH HAIL

0945 PM HAIL 1 S MALLORY 47.86N 96.91W
08/26/2007 E0.75 INCH POLK MN PUBLIC

45 MPH WINDS WITH APPROXIMATELY 60 MPH GUSTS...HAIL
LASTED FROM 950-953 PM...1.58 INCHES OF RAIN IN 35
MINUTES.

0955 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 1 SE NEWFOLDEN 48.35N 96.31W
08/26/2007 MARSHALL MN TRAINED SPOTTER

REPORTED BY SPOTTERS NEAR VIKING MN WHO WERE LOOKING TO
THE NORTHEAST.

0959 PM TORNADO 3 ESE NEWFOLDEN 48.34N 96.27W
08/26/2007 F0 MARSHALL MN PUBLIC

A COUPLE INTERMITTENT AND BRIEF TOUCHDOWNS OCCURRED ALONG
THE EDGE OF A FIELD AND INTO A LINE OF TREES. TORNADO
TRAVELLED LESS THAN A HALF MILE AND LIFTED BY 1001 PM
CDT. A FEW LARGE TREES LIMBS BROKEN DOWN. MAXIMUM PATH
WIDTH WAS 30 YARDS. PEAK WIND ESTIMATED AT 80 MPH.

1000 PM TORNADO 7 ENE REYNOLDS 47.71N 96.97W
08/26/2007 F2 GRAND FORKS ND NWS STORM SURVEY

TORNADO TRACKED FOR ROUGHLY 2 MILES BEFORE CROSSING THE
RED RIVER INTO POLK COUNTY MINNESOTA...ABOUT 9 ENE OF
REYNOLDS ND OR 6 WNW OF ELDRED MN. THE TORNADO TORE DOWN
AN ANTIQUE WINDMILL AT ONE FARM AND SEVERELY RAVAGED
HARDWOOD TREES NEAR THE RIVER. MAXIMUM WIDTH WAS 300
YARDS. PEAK WINDS ESTIMATED AT 120 MPH. TOTAL TORNADO
PATH IN ND AND MN WAS ABOUT 5 MILES.

1004 PM TORNADO 6 WNW ELDRED 47.72N 96.90W
08/26/2007 F2 POLK MN NWS STORM SURVEY

TORNADO CROSSED FROM GRAND FORKS COUNTY NORTH DAKOTA AND
CONTINUED ALONG AN APPROXIMATE 3 MILE CURVING PATH IN
TYNSID TOWNSHIP MINNESOTA...ENDING ABOUT 4 NW OF ELDRED
BY 1010 PM CDT. A WOODEN QUONSET AND A STEEL POLE SHED
WERE BOTH DESTROYED AT ONE FARMSTEAD WITH SIGNIFICANT
TREE DAMAGE AT OTHER LOCATIONS NEARBY. MAXIMUM WIDTH WAS
300 YARDS. PEAK WINDS ESTIMATED AT 120 MPH. TOTAL TORNADO
PATH IN ND AND MN WAS ABOUT 5 MILES.

1007 PM HAIL 3 N CLIMAX 47.65N 96.81W
08/26/2007 E1.00 INCH POLK MN TRAINED SPOTTER

1010 PM HAIL 9 NNE CLIMAX 47.73N 96.74W
08/26/2007 E1.25 INCH POLK MN TRAINED SPOTTER

1015 PM TSTM WND GST 2 WNW CROOKSTON 47.79N 96.65W
08/26/2007 E70.00 MPH POLK MN TRAINED SPOTTER

ZERO VISIBILITY REPORTED IN VERY HIGH WINDS AND RAIN.

1015 PM HAIL 5 E MIDDLE RIVER 48.44N 96.05W
08/26/2007 E0.88 INCH MARSHALL MN TRAINED SPOTTER

1.75 INCHES OF RAIN IN 15 MINUTES.

1035 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 W DOROTHY 47.93N 96.47W
08/26/2007 RED LAKE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

4-5 INCH TREE LIMBS DOWN...DOWNED POWER LINES.

1035 PM TSTM WND DMG 12 NNE CROOKSTON 47.93N 96.51W
08/26/2007 POLK MN TRAINED SPOTTER

LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN AND POWER LINES DOWN ALONG POLK AND
RED LAKE COUNTY LINE.

1045 PM HAIL HATTON 47.64N 97.46W
08/26/2007 E0.88 INCH TRAILL ND AMATEUR RADIO

HAIL FELL FOR ABOUT 5 MINUTES...UNTIL 1050 PM CDT.

1045 PM HAIL 19 E SHARON 47.60N 97.49W
08/26/2007 E1.00 INCH STEELE ND PUBLIC

1050 PM HAIL 2 W HOLMES 47.72N 97.34W
08/26/2007 M1.00 INCH GRAND FORKS ND OTHER FEDERAL

ARB REPORT FROM 6 NE HATTON.

1100 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 E THIEF RIVER FALLS 48.11N 96.07W
08/26/2007 PENNINGTON MN TRAINED SPOTTER

4 INCH TREE LIMBS DOWN...DOWNED POWER LINES.

1100 PM TSTM WND GST THIEF RIVER FALLS 48.11N 96.18W
08/26/2007 E63.00 MPH PENNINGTON MN NEWSPAPER

SEVERAL TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN IN THE CITY OF THIEF RIVER
FALLS.

1107 PM HAIL BUXTON 47.60N 97.10W
08/26/2007 E0.88 INCH TRAILL ND TRAINED SPOTTER

1115 PM TSTM WND DMG MAPLE BAY 47.64N 96.22W
08/26/2007 POLK MN PUBLIC

SEVERAL LARGE BRANCHES BROKEN DOWN. SOME PENNY TO NICKEL
SIZED HAIL.

1130 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 W RED LAKE 47.88N 95.04W
08/26/2007 BELTRAMI MN PUBLIC

INTERSECTION OF MN ROUTE 1 AND MN ROUTE 89 ON SOUTH SIDE
OF LOWER RED LAKE...POWER LINES DOWN.

1130 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 NE BERNER 47.82N 95.44W
08/26/2007 CLEARWATER MN PUBLIC

DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES.

1150 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 W RED LAKE 47.88N 95.06W
08/26/2007 BELTRAMI MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWER LINES AND TREES DOWN BLOCKING HWY 1.

1200 AM HAIL 6 NW FERTILE 47.59N 96.38W
08/27/2007 E0.75 INCH POLK MN PUBLIC

1205 AM TSTM WND DMG SAUM 47.97N 94.68W
08/27/2007 BELTRAMI MN TRAINED SPOTTER

TREES DOWN AND SHED DESTROYED.

&&

$$

GGUST

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KPSR [050042]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 050042
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
542 PM MST THU OCT 04 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM HAIL 14 S GLOBE 33.18N 110.75W
10/04/2007 M0.75 INCH GILA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

KINCAID

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2056

ACUS11 KWNS 042137
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042137
NEZ000-KSZ000-042300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2056
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0437 PM CDT THU OCT 04 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL/NERN KS INTO S-CNTRL/SERN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 042137Z - 042300Z

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BETWEEN
04/22Z-05/00Z. SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO WILL EXIST SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP AND BECOME
SUSTAINED. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW
ISSUANCE.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN OVER THE
REGION WITH PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FRONT EXTENDING FROM SERN SD SWWD
THROUGH CNTRL NEB TO LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN KS. A COUPLE OF
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES WERE ALSO ANALYZED OVER EXTREME NRN
KS AND FROM S-CNTRL INTO E-CNTRL NEB. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGH THE 80S TO AROUND 90F OVER WRN
AND CNTRL PARTS OF KS. THIS HEATING COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S HAVE RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND A WEAKENING
CAP.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER SURFACE-BASED STORMS
WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME SUSTAINED. LATEST SHORT TERM RUC/WRF
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 04/22-05/00Z. THOUGH A
GENERAL WEAKNESS EXISTS IN THE MID-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS...AREA
PROFILERS INDICATE A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS...NAMELY ACROSS S-CNTRL INTO SERN NEB
WHERE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE BACKED INVOF THE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES. LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP. A BRIEF
TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL STRUCTURES THAT CAN
MOVE/PROPAGATE THROUGH ZONE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR OVER
S-CNTRL/SERN NEB.

.MEAD.. 10/04/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

39349972 40629896 41379766 41489681 41309605 40779596
39899618 39699681 38879901

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KDVN [042115]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 042115
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
414 PM CDT THU OCT 04 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 NW SPRINGVILLE 42.07N 91.46W
10/02/2007 LINN IA PUBLIC

DELAYED REPORT...1 FOOT DIAMETER PINE TREE SNAPPED OFF
AND FELL ON HOUSE. OTHER LARGE TREES UPROOTED AND CROP
DAMAGE NEARBY.

&&

$$

DLS

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KJAX [042114]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 042114
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
514 PM EDT THU OCT 04 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM FLOOD 6 NNW STARKE 30.03N 82.15W
10/04/2007 BRADFORD FL EMERGENCY MNGR

WATER IS COVERING THE ROAD ABOUT 4 TO 5 INCHES DEEP NEAR
INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 16 AND HIGHWAY 225. WATER IS NEAR
SOME HOUSES. POWER OUTAGES WERE ALSO REPORTED.

0510 PM FLOOD STARKE 29.95N 82.11W
10/04/2007 BRADFORD FL EMERGENCY MNGR

1 MILE STRETCH OF US-301 CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING BETWEEN
SR-16 AND SR-100 IN DOWNTOWN STARKE. WATER IS UP TO 3
FEET DEEP IN PLACES.

&&

$$

CARROLL

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KCHS [042039]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 042039
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
439 PM EDT THU OCT 04 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM HIGH ASTR TIDES 4 NW EDISTO ISLAND 32.60N 80.33W
10/02/2007 CHARLESTON SC NWS STORM SURVEY

PARTS OF STEAMBOAT LANDING ROAD...MAINLY NEAR THE
BRIDGE...WERE COMPLETELY FLOODED BY HIGH TIDES.

&&

$$

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2055

ACUS11 KWNS 042020
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042020
OKZ000-TXZ000-042215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2055
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0320 PM CDT THU OCT 04 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TX INTO FAR WRN OK/ERN OK PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 042020Z - 042215Z

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH
THE EARLY TO MID EVENING. WW NOT ANTICIPATED.

BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE DRIVING
DEEPENING CUMULUS AND SMALL CB DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRY LINE FROM
W-CENTRAL TX ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AT 20Z. MESOANALYSIS AT
20Z SUGGESTS CAP IS NOW ERODED NEAR THE OK/TX PANHANDLE BORDER WITH
MLCAPE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS SHOULD
AID ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
AREA PROFILERS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
REMAINS MARGINAL...BUT 25-30 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT
A FEW SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS/CLUSTERS AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF-LIVED
SUPERCELL THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL WITH
THE STRONGER CORES...UNSEASONABLY STRONG HEATING EAST OF THE DRY
LINE /TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S/ HAS STRENGTHENED LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS. DESPITE THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM...OVERALL COVERAGE/DURATION
OF ANY HAIL/WIND THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO WARRANT WW ATTM.

.EVANS.. 10/04/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...

36869924 35659925 32720102 32460266 34920124 36800037

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 041956
SWODY1
SPC AC 041953

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT THU OCT 04 2007

VALID 042000Z - 051200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS AND MID MO VALLEYS...

..UPPER MS INTO MID MO VALLEYS...

EARLY AFTERNOON MESOANALYSIS SHOWED SURFACE LOW OVER WRN KS WITH
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING NEWD THROUGH CNTRL NEB...SERN SD
INTO CNTRL MN. CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDINESS HAS PERSISTED OVER
PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN NEB WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING/BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM N-CNTRL KS TO
E-CNTRL NEB.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE OK/TX PNHDLS INTO SWRN KS CONTINUES TO
LIFT NEWD THIS AFTERNOON WITH IMPLIED ZONE OF FORCING FOR ASCENT
GRADUALLY SHIFTING NEWD THROUGH NRN KS AND SRN NEB. LATEST SHORT
TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
INVOF ABOVEMENTIONED BOUNDARIES OVER N-CNTRL/NERN KS INTO ERN
NEB...PERHAPS AS THIS FORCING FOR ASCENT ACTS ON DESTABILIZING AIR
MASS.

GOES SOUNDER PW LOOP AND TRENDS IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL DATA SHOW
THAT CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS OCCURRING OVER ERN
NEB/WRN IA WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG FROM VICINITY OF WARM
FRONT/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY SWD INTO KS. AREA PROFILERS
INDICATE THAT VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION WITH DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR OF GENERALLY LESS THAN
25-30 KT. STILL...SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW
STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH A THREAT OF MAINLY DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL.

AS LLJ STRENGTHENS TONIGHT...ELEVATED TSTMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
NUMEROUS FROM NERN NEB/NWRN IA INTO ERN SD AND SRN MN. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION WITH MUCAPES OF
1000-1500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 30-35 KT OF SHEAR
THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER SUGGEST A THREAT OF
ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY SEVERE HAIL.

..CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...

LEE TROUGH/WEAK DRYLINE IS SHARPENING THIS AFTERNOON FROM SURFACE
LOW OVER WRN KS SWD INTO WRN TX WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTING GROWING CUMULUS CONVECTION ALONG AND E OF THIS FEATURE.
SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH INFLUENCE OF
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD THROUGH KS SHOULD SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J PER KG/
AND MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF 25-30 KT/
INDICATE SOME THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL
AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

..AZ...

SCATTERED TSTMS ARE ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY N OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHEARED...LOW-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH/VORTICITY MAXIMUM LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE LOWER CO VALLEY.
12Z TUS/FGZ SOUNDINGS INDICATED THAT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
RELATIVELY WEAK...HOWEVER DAYTIME HEATING AND PW VALUES OF 0.8-1.3
INCHES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH MODEST
DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF 30-40 KT/ SHOULD
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS.

.MEAD.. 10/04/2007

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KCHS [041956]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KCHS 041956
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
356 PM EDT THU OCT 04 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM HIGH ASTR TIDES 6 SSW EDISTO ISLAND 32.48N 80.32W
10/02/2007 COLLETON SC NWS STORM SURVEY

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND HIGH SURF
PUSHED SEA WATER UNDER SEVERAL HOMES AND THE PAVILION
RESTAURANT ONTO PORTIONS OF PALMETTO BOULEVARD IN THE
EDISTO BEACH COMMUNITY. HIGH TIDES IN BACK BAY CREEK ALSO
PRODUCED MINOR FLOODING OF YARDS AND PARKING LOTS AROUND
SEVERAL BUSINESSES ON THE WEST END OF THE COMMUNITY AS
WELL AS ADJACENT AREAS ALONG SAINT HELENA SOUND.

&&

$$

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KCHS [041954]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 041954
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
354 PM EDT THU OCT 04 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM HIGH ASTR TIDES 6 SSW EDISTO ISLAND 32.48N 80.32W
10/02/2007 COLLETON SC NWS STORM SURVEY

THE COMBINATION IF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND HIGH SURF
PUSHED SEA WATER UNDER SEVERAL HOMES AND THE PAVILION
RESTAURANT ONTO PORTIONS OF PALMETTO BOULEVARD IN THE
EDISTO BEACH COMMUNITY. HIGH TIDES IN BACK BAY CREEK ALSO
PRODUCED MINOR FLOODING OF YARDS AND PARKING LOTS AROUND
SEVERAL BUSINESSES ON THE WEST END OF THE COMMUNITY AS
WELL AS ADJACENT AREAS ALONG SAINT HELENA SOUND.

&&

$$

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 041719
SWODY2
SPC AC 041717

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT THU OCT 04 2007

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS
EWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...

..SYNOPSIS...

LARGE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY EVOLVING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST IS
FORECAST TO UNDERGO FURTHER AMPLIFICATION DURING THE DAY TWO PERIOD
AS IT SLOWLY PROGRESSES EWD THROUGH THE WRN STATES. AS THIS
OCCURS...DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL ALSO INTENSIFY...MOST NOTABLY FROM
HUDSON BAY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT BASIN EWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO A SURFACE LOW OVER WY WITH
THIS FEATURE DEVELOPING EWD INTO WRN SD BY SATURDAY MORNING.
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NWD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS...MN
AND WI...WHILE LEE TROUGH IS MAINTAINED OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH
PLAINS. FARTHER TO THE W...PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN INTO CNTRL ROCKIES.

..NRN PLAINS EWD INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES...

CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS /SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE/ ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING NEAR AND TO THE N OF SURFACE WARM FRONT OVER
ERN SD...MN AND WI. WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT FOCUSED ALONG THE NOSE OF
A PERSISTENT...SLY/SWLY LLJ WILL BE THE PRIMARY MECHANISM SUSTAINING
THESE STORMS WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODEST INSTABILITY AND
VERTICAL SHEAR /I.E. MUCAPES OF 1000-1500 J PER KG AND EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEARS OF 30-35 KT/. THE LLJ AND ASSOCIATED FORCING MECHANISMS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH MULTIPLE EPISODES OF
ELEVATED...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TO THE N OF RETREATING WARM
FRONT...MAINLY OVER ERN ND EWD ACROSS MN INTO PARTS OF WI. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRENGTHENING CLOUD- BEARING SHEAR FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL.

THE PROSPECTS OF ANY SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM
FRONT ARE QUITE UNCERTAIN AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST
ONLY A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF INITIATION AND SUSTENANCE. THE
PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR APPEARS TO BE THE PRESENCE OF A LOWER TO
MID-TROPOSPHERIC CAPPING INVERSION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINTAINED BY BUILDING HEIGHTS DOWNSTREAM FROM WRN U.S. TROUGH.
INDEED...BOTH THE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE RATHER STRONG LOW
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ABOVEMENTIONED CONCERNS...SEVERE PROBABILITIES
HAVE BEEN LOWERED.

..ERN UT/NWRN CO/SWRN WY...

A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY OWING TO THE PROXIMITY OF 70-80 KT MID-LEVEL JET
STREAK DEVELOPING DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER TROUGH AXIS. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE DEGREE OF AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT...HOWEVER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF
200-500 J PER KG/ WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. THE STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR AND INCREASED DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY BE SUFFICIENT
TO SUPPORT A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS
BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL.

.MEAD.. 10/04/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 041614
SWODY1
SPC AC 041611

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 AM CDT THU OCT 04 2007

VALID 041630Z - 051200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS...

..AZ...
LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE IS BEGINNING TO AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AZ THIS MORNING AS IT LIFTS NEWD ACROSS
THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE EJECTING INTO
THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION AHEAD OF LARGER AMPLITUDE TROUGH DIGGING
SSEWD ALONG THE WEST COAST TODAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND OBSERVED
LAPSE RATES THIS MORNING REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED...BUT SHOULD
SUPPORT MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH HEATING TODAY. SWLY MID AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO
STRENGTHENING WEST COAST TROUGH AND INCREASE LOW AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ACROSS AZ. THIS MAY SUPPORT A FEW LONGER-LIVED OR MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS AND ATTENDANT THREATS OF HAIL/STRONG DOWNDRAFTS...
INCLUDING AN ISOLATED...BRIEFLY SEVERE REPORT OR TWO.

..SRN HIGH PLAINS/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY MOVING NEWD INTO WRN
KS THIS MORNING WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE...SLY LLJ IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER
THE ERN PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MN INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE
LITTLE TODAY...AND MAY ACTUALLY RETREAT NWWD A BIT ALLOWING
UNSEASONABLY WARM/MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE SRN PLAINS TO
LIFT NWD INTO MID MO RIVER VALLEY BY LATE TODAY. APPEARS CAPPING
WILL REMAIN ROBUST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND MAY INHIBIT SURFACE BASED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OUTRIGHT DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...12Z
RUC/GFS AND 09Z SREF/NAMKF INITIATE STORMS INTO N-CENTRAL KS/ERN NEB
LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING WHERE MLCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG AND 25-35 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD BE IN PLACE. ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO
OCCUR INVOF WRN EDGE OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOIST AXIS INTO THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS WHERE STRONG HEATING MAY MIX THROUGH CAP. THUS...LOW
PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT REMAINS WARRANTED FROM PORTIONS OF WRN TX
INTO SWRN KS/OK PANHANDLE...WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL NNEWD
SUPPORTING CONDITIONAL SLIGHT RISK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR ABOVE A STABILIZING BOUNDARY
LAYER DURING THE EVENING AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT INTO FAR
SERN SD/NWRN IA/MN...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.

.EVANS/GRAMS.. 10/04/2007

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WATCHES: Test...severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 9990...test

WWUS20 KWNS 041540
SEL0
SPC WW 041540
MIZ000-WIZ000-LMZ000-041600-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TEST...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 9990...TEST
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 AM EDT THU OCT 4 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED...TEST...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 9990 ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT FOR PORTIONS OF

MICHIGAN
WISCONSIN
LAKE MICHIGAN

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KCHS [041455]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 041455
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1054 AM EDT THU OCT 04 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 PM HIGH SURF 4 ESE HALFMOON LANDING 31.68N 81.22W
09/30/2007 LIBERTY GA EMERGENCY MNGR

LIBERTY COUNTY REPORTS SEVERE EROSION ON SAINT CATHERINES
ISLAND. THE NORTH AND SOUTH END OF THE ISLAND IS WHERE
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT EROSION HAS TAKEN PLACE.

&&

$$

PAY

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KJAX [041450]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KJAX 041450 CCA
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1049 AM EDT THU OCT 04 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0941 AM LIGHTNING HOMERVILLE 31.04N 82.75W
10/04/2007 CLINCH GA TRAINED SPOTTER

POWERLINES DOWN STRUCK BY LIGHTNING ON HWY 187.

&&

$$

AWALKER

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KJAX [041356]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 041356
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
956 AM EDT THU OCT 04 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0941 AM LIGHTNING HAZLEHURST 31.87N 82.60W
10/04/2007 JEFF DAVIS GA TRAINED SPOTTER

POWERLINE DOWN ON HWY 187 CLINCH STRUCK BY LIGHTNING

0941 AM LIGHTNING HOMERVILLE 31.04N 82.75W
10/04/2007 CLINCH GA TRAINED SPOTTER

POWERLINES DOWN STRUCK BY LIGHTNING ON HWY 187.

&&

$$

AWALKER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 041257
SWODY1
SPC AC 041254

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 AM CDT THU OCT 04 2007

VALID 041300Z - 051200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID MO AND
UPR MS VLYS...

..SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPR TROUGH OVER THE NE PACIFIC EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AMPLIFYING
SE INTO THE FAR WRN U.S. THIS PERIOD AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXPANDS
W/N ACROSS THE LWR GRT LKS/OH VLY. FARTHER S...SEPARATE SRN STREAM
JET WILL PERSIST FROM NRN BAJA CA NE INTO THE CNTRL/NRN PLNS.
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW TWO IMPULSES IN THE SRN JET THAT LIKELY WILL
AFFECT TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS PERIOD: ONE OVER SRN CA AND THE OTHER
OVER SRN CO.

AT LWR LVLS...SEASONABLY RICH BOUNDARY LYR MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SURGE N ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE PLNS AND THE MS VLY AS LLJ
STRENGTHENS DOWNSTREAM FROM AMPLIFYING TROUGH. A SFC LOW SHOULD
GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS...S OF FRONTAL ZONE
THAT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY IN WAKE OF
NRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW CROSSING MANITOBA.

..MID MO INTO UPR MS VLY...
BOUNDARY LYR MOISTURE EXPECTED TO INCREASE MARKEDLY ACROSS ERN
NEB/IA/SE SD AND SRN MN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS SLY LLJ
STRENGTHENS AND BROADENS S OF FRONTAL ZONE SETTLING S TOWARD REGION.
INCREASING MOISTURE...SFC HEATING AND CONVERGENCE IN EXIT REGION OF
LLJ SUGGEST THAT A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR STRONG TO SVR STORMS WILL
EXIST ALONG AND S OF FRONT LATE THIS AFTN AND EARLY TONIGHT AS SRN
STREAM DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM CO. RELATIVELY WEAK /20-25 KT/
700 MB FLOW WILL LIMIT DEEP SHEAR...BUT SETUP COULD YIELD A FEW
SUSTAINED STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS POSING A THREAT FOR SVR
WIND/HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF LLJ...AND DEVELOPMENT OF COUPLED JET
STRUCTURE ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM IMPULSE CROSSING
ONTARIO...SUGGEST THAT AFTN/EVE STORMS IN ERN NEB AREA WILL
CONSOLIDATE INTO A CLUSTER THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
THIS ACTIVITY COULD POSE A LIMITED THREAT FOR SVR WIND/HAIL AS IT
MOVES/DEVELOPS GENERALLY NE INTO PARTS OF SD/MN AND IA.

..CNTRL/SRN HI PLNS...
A LEE TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HI PLNS
TODAY AS SFC LOW EVOLVES ALONG THE CO/KS BORDER. LOW LVL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE E OF THIS FEATURE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 60S POSSIBLE FROM NW TX/WRN OK INTO CNTRL PARTS OF KS AND NEB BY
LATE IN THE DAY. SEASONABLY WARM 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE CINH. BUT FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH CO UPR
IMPULSE...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE TROUGH...MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ALONG AND E OF THE TROUGH LATE THIS AFTN
INTO EARLY TONIGHT. GIVEN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT /SBCAPE TO 1500 J
PER KG/ AND 25-30 KT DEEP SWLY SHEAR...A FEW OF THESE COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY HAIL INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

..SWRN U.S...
SCTD DIURNALLY-ENHANCED TSTMS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF AZ AND THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION THIS PERIOD...WHERE SFC AND PW DATA SUGGEST AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT. STORM LOCATION AND
COVERAGE WILL TO A LARGE EXTENT BE MODULATED BY UVV FIELD/DEEP
CONFLUENCE ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING BAJA DISTURBANCE...
ALTHOUGH TERRAIN AND MOISTURE CONSIDERATIONS SUGGESTS THAT COVERAGE
WILL BE GREATEST INVOF THE MOGOLLON RIM.

WHILE MID LVL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE VERY STEEP /AROUND 7
DEG C PER KM/...COMBINATION OF MODERATE SFC HEATING AND SEASONABLY
RICH MOISTURE SHOULD BOOST AFTN SBCAPE TO AOA 500 J/KG. COUPLED
WITH 30-40 UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW TO MID LVL SWLY FLOW AND 80+ KT HI-LVL
JET...SETUP COULD YIELD BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS CONTAINING A FEW
SUSTAINED CELLS WITH DAMAGING WIND.

.CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 10/04/2007

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 040852
SWOD48
SPC AC 040851

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CDT THU OCT 04 2007

VALID 071200Z - 121200Z

..NO SVR AREAS FCST DUE TO LOW PREDICTABILITY/LOW POTENTIAL...

FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE LAST WEEK...MUCH VARIABILITY HAS EXISTED
AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE CONCERNING THE
PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE LARGE-SCALE POLAR TROUGH...NOW IN THE PROCESS
OF AMPLIFYING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN STATES. AND...BEYOND
LATE THIS SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY...THE SPREAD OF POSSIBLE MODEL
SOLUTIONS REMAINS CONSIDERABLE. HOWEVER THE UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
ULTIMATELY EMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES...IT SEEMS MOST PROBABLE THAT
THE PROGRESSIVENESS WILL SLOW. THIS MAY TEND TO MINIMIZE THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...BUT AT LEAST MINOR SEVERE THREATS COULD STILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM.

.KERR.. 10/04/2007

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 040732
SWODY3
SPC AC 040730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT THU OCT 04 2007

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SAT AFTN/EVE ACROSS THE NRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS....

..SYNOPSIS...
A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE...EMERGING FROM THE BASE OF THE LARGE-SCALE
WESTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH BY EARLY SATURDAY...IS FORECAST TO LIFT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS THIS
OCCURS...AND ANOTHER STRONG WESTERLY POLAR JET STREAK NOSES THROUGH
BRITISH COLUMBA AND THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
UPPER TROUGH AND AN EMBEDDED DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
INTO THE ROCKIES BY 07/00Z SATURDAY EVENING. BEYOND THIS TIME...THE
SPREAD AMONG VARIOUS MODEL FORECASTS INCREASES CONCERNING THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW...DUE TO UNCERTAIN INTERACTION WITH THE MAIN
BELT OF WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH...AND THE CONTINUING PRESENCE OF A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION.

..PLAINS...
A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT LEAST
THROUGH SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE EASTERN
NORTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BEFORE A
SHARP COLD FRONT ADVANCES EAST OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. A
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME THE FOCUS FOR STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND CONSIDERABLE
DESTABILIZATION BY MID TO LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG AN AXIS
FROM WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. GIVEN A
FAVORABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH IS ALREADY EXPECTED TO BE
PRESENT...MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 APPEARS
PROBABLE. AND...THIS MORE THAN LIKELY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT CONTRIBUTES TO
WEAKENING INHIBITION.

BENEATH 50-70 KT SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...AND 30-50 KT
SOUTHERLY 850 FLOW...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH SHEAR WILL GENERALLY BE UNIDIRECTIONAL...
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BE LARGE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A RISK FOR
TORNADOES...MAINLY WITH INITIAL ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...AT THE PRESENT
TIME IT APPEARS THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/
LARGE HAIL...WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A NARROW BROKEN SQUALL LINE
SEEMING PROBABLE BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A GRADUALLY EASTWARD SHIFT
..BEFORE STORMS WEAKEN DUE TO STABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

.KERR.. 10/04/2007

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KLZK [040729]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLZK 040729
LSRLZK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
229 AM CDT THU OCT 04 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM FLASH FLOOD 3 NNW WALDRON 34.94N 94.11W
10/03/2007 SCOTT AR COUNTY OFFICIAL

FLOODING WAS REPORTED ON JOHNNY TATE ROAD.

0600 AM FLASH FLOOD 4 W ELM PARK 35.02N 94.19W
10/03/2007 SCOTT AR COUNTY OFFICIAL

FLOODING WAS NOTED ON ROADS OFF OF ARKANSAS HIGHWAY 378
INCLUDING ROADRUNNER ROAD AND PERSIMMON HILL.

&&

$$

46

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 040601
SWODY1
SPC AC 040600

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT THU OCT 04 2007

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS NERN NEB...ERN
SD...SWRN MN...NWRN IA...

..SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR PATTERN FCST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS MUCH OF CONUS THIS
PERIOD...RELATED LARGELY TO STRENGTHENING OF MEAN TROUGH ACROSS WRN
STATES. SPEED MAX ALOFT -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY
OFFSHORE ORE -- SHOULD DIG SWD IN CONCURRENCE WITH STRONG HEIGHT
FALLS DOWNSTREAM OVER PACIFIC COAST STATES. SEVERAL PROGS INDICATE
THAT RESULTANT CLOSED LOW -- FCST OVER NRN CA AND ORE BY 5/12Z --
WILL HAVE AT LEAST TWO VORTICITY/CIRCULATION CENTERS...WITH AT LEAST
150 KT 250 MB JET MAX STILL OFFSHORE AND W OF TROUGH BY END OF
PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...BROAD FETCH OF SWLY FLOW WILL COVER MUCH OF
ROCKIES AND GREAT PLAINS...GENERALLY STRENGTHENING WITH NWD EXTENT
ACROSS NEB/DAKOTAS. BY 5/00Z...EXPECT 140-160 KT 250 MB FLOW CORE
ACROSS SRN SASK/MB...AND SECONDARY/WEAKER MAX OF 70-90 KT FROM SWRN
AZ TO NWRN KS. SRN STREAM PERTURBATION INITIALLY OFFSHORE NRN BAJA
IS EXPECTED TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL AZ THIS AFTERNOON AS
POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE NOW ANALYZED FROM W-CENTRAL TX TO CENTRAL OK AND
WRN OZARKS WILL MOVE NWD AND BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE DIFFUSE
THROUGH PERIOD. MEANWHILE...LEESIDE CYCLOGENESIS IS FCST OVER NERN
WY/SERN MT...WITH WARM FRONTOGENESIS EWD ACROSS NERN NEB/SRN SD.
RESULTING WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NWD OVER SD...WHILE LEE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM N-CENTRAL NEB/S-CENTRAL SD SSWWD ACROSS ERN KS AND W
TX. DRYLINE SHOULD BE NEARLY COLOCATED WITH LEE TROUGH...AND SHOULD
BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM S-N THROUGH AFTERNOON/EVENING AS MOISTURE
ADVECTS NWD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS.

..NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...
CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL/SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
EXISTS INVOF SFC WARM FRONT AND ALONG/AHEAD OF LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE.
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES...PARTICULARLY ALONG WARM FRONT WHERE SFC
FLOW WILL BE BACKED -- WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL
AND WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. ETA-KF AND WRF FCST HODOGRAPHS YIELD
100--150 J/KG OF 0-1 KM SRH...ALTHOUGH LACK OF MORE INTENSE MIDLEVEL
WINDS RESULTS IN ONLY 30-35 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES. MAIN
QUESTION IS TIMING/VIGOR OF ARRIVAL OF MOST FAVORABLE MOISTURE
RETURN. SRN PLAINS FRONTOLYSIS WILL LEAD TO MERIDIONAL DEFORMATION
AND NWD MOVEMENT OF PLUME OF MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR NOW CHARACTERIZED
BY 70S F SFC DEW POINTS OVER SRN/ERN OK AND MID/UPPER 60S OVER SWRN
OK...N TX AND AR. ARRIVAL OF NRN PORTION OF THIS AIR MASS INVOF
WARM FRONT BEFORE 5/00Z MAY COMBINE WITH WEAK WARM FRONTAL LIFT AND
SFC HEATING TO WEAKEN CAP ENOUGH FOR INITIATION.

MORE CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN EVENING/OVERNIGHT INITIATION ALONG AND N
OF WARM FRONT FROM SIOUX-LAND AREA NEWD INTO SRN MN...ALONG AND W OF
NOSE OF INCREASINGLY MOIST/30-40 KT SSWLY LLJ. ACTIVITY SHOULD
SPREAD/SHIFTING OVER ERN MN AND WRN WI BEFORE END OF PERIOD...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND OCCASIONAL STG/DAMAGING GUSTS POSSIBLE.

..CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP DURING MID-LATE
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIABATIC SFC COOLING
REMOVES BOUNDARY LAYER BUOYANCY. MOST INTENSE TSTMS MAY PRODUCE
STG/DAMAGING GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR GENERALLY SHOULD BE WEAK ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR...ALTHOUGH SOME
LOW LEVEL VEERING/STRENGTHENING OF FLOW WITH HEIGHT WILL PRODUCE
ENLARGED 0-3 KM AGL HODOGRAPHS. SOMEWHAT ENHANCED ANVIL LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS WRN/NRN KS AND SRN NEB ALSO MAY ENHANCE VENTING ALOFT AND
OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION. COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED BY CAPPING AND
BY LACK OF MORE ROBUST CONVERGENCE INVOF LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE.

..SWRN CONUS...
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP GRADUALLY THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS AS STG SFC
HEATING WEAKENS CAP...AND AS AMBIENT WIND FIELDS ALOFT INTENSIFY
AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING PACIFIC COAST TROUGH. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
FAVORABLE SFC DEW POINTS OF 40S AND 50S F ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/SRN
AZ...WITH MOIST ADVECTION OFFSETTING BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN FAVORABLE MOISTURE DURING DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER WINDS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR
LOCALIZED/OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...AND PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ANY
SUSTAINED TSTMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE STG/DAMAGING GUSTS.
POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS INCLUDE LACK OF MORE ROBUST BOUNDARY
LAYER LIFT...GIVEN ABSENCE OF SUBSTANTIAL BAROCLINICITY OVER
REGION...AND MRGL MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES LIKELY TO CONTINUE S OF
MID/UPPER JET MAX...LIMITING MLCAPES TO AOB 500 J/KG IN MANY AREAS.
HOWEVER...WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF EJECTING SRN STREAM
PERTURBATION MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRESERVE CAPE OVER THIS AREA AND
SUPPORT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

.EDWARDS/CROSBIE.. 10/04/2007

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