SWOD48
SPC AC 040851
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CDT THU OCT 04 2007
VALID 071200Z - 121200Z
..NO SVR AREAS FCST DUE TO LOW PREDICTABILITY/LOW POTENTIAL...
FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE LAST WEEK...MUCH VARIABILITY HAS EXISTED
AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE CONCERNING THE
PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE LARGE-SCALE POLAR TROUGH...NOW IN THE PROCESS
OF AMPLIFYING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN STATES. AND...BEYOND
LATE THIS SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY...THE SPREAD OF POSSIBLE MODEL
SOLUTIONS REMAINS CONSIDERABLE. HOWEVER THE UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
ULTIMATELY EMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES...IT SEEMS MOST PROBABLE THAT
THE PROGRESSIVENESS WILL SLOW. THIS MAY TEND TO MINIMIZE THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...BUT AT LEAST MINOR SEVERE THREATS COULD STILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM.
.KERR.. 10/04/2007
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