KFGF [310336]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KFGF 310336
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1036 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1025 PM TSTM WND GST SHOOKS 47.87N 94.44W
08/30/2010 M60.00 MPH BELTRAMI MN DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

MINNESOTA DOT RWIS WEATHER STATION

&&
CORRECTED TIME OF OCCURRENCE
$$

DRIDDLE

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KFGF [310335]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 310335
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1035 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1033 PM TSTM WND GST SHOOKS 47.87N 94.44W
08/30/2010 M60 MPH BELTRAMI MN DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

MINNESOTA DOT RWIS WEATHER STATION

&&

$$

DRIDDLE

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch - Number 635

WWUS20 KWNS 310303
SEL5
SPC WW 310303
MNZ000-NDZ000-310300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH - NUMBER 635
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1003 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 635 ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

MINNESOTA
NORTH DAKOTA

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 634

WWUS20 KWNS 310235
SEL4
SPC WW 310235
MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-310300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 634
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
935 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 634 ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

MINNESOTA
NEBRASKA
SOUTH DAKOTA

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KFSD [310229]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KFSD 310229
LSRFSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
929 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0520 PM TSTM WND GST 11 S BURKE 43.02N 99.29W
08/30/2010 E70.00 MPH GREGORY SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0605 PM TSTM WND DMG 12 NW PLATTE 43.49N 99.05W
08/30/2010 CHARLES MIX SD CO-OP OBSERVER

HOME DAMAGED WHEN WAGON WAS BLOWN ONTO IT. BARN DOOR
BLOWN OFF. ESTIMATED WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

0612 PM TSTM WND GST 7 NNW MOUNT VERNON 43.81N 98.31W
08/30/2010 E70.00 MPH DAVISON SD TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS

0638 PM TSTM WND GST 2 NW FORESTBURG 44.04N 98.14W
08/30/2010 E70.00 MPH SANBORN SD STORM CHASER

0702 PM TSTM WND GST 1 W CORSICA 43.42N 98.43W
08/30/2010 E60.00 MPH DOUGLAS SD AMATEUR RADIO

55 TO 60 MPH WIND GUST. NO REPORTED DAMAGE.

0720 PM TSTM WND GST PARKSTON 43.39N 97.99W
08/30/2010 E60.00 MPH HUTCHINSON SD PUBLIC

0755 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 NNW OLDHAM 44.28N 97.33W
08/30/2010 KINGSBURY SD PUBLIC

TREES DOWN AND SEMI BLOWN OVER

&&

$$

JM

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KFSD [310226]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFSD 310226
LSRFSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
926 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0612 PM TSTM WND GST 7 NNW MOUNT VERNON 43.81N 98.31W
08/30/2010 E70 MPH DAVISON SD TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS

&&

$$

JM

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1764

ACUS11 KWNS 310221
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310220
MNZ000-SDZ000-310315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1764
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0920 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN THROUGH CNTRL MN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 635...636...

VALID 310220Z - 310315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 635...636...CONTINUES.

STORMS WILL APPROACH ERN BORDER OF WW 635 AND 635 BY 03Z. STORM
INTENSITIES HAVE DECREASED...BUT RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO CONTINUES. A MODEST SEVERE THREAT MAY
PERSIST EAST OF THE CURRENT WATCHES...BUT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS
REGARDING HOW QUICKLY THE THREAT WILL DIMINISH. THEREFORE REISSUANCE
FARTHER EAST WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS NEXT 20
MIN.

LINE OF STORMS WITH COUPLE OF EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES EXTENDS
FROM NWRN MN SWWD INTO EXTREME ERN SD. THE LINE IS MOVING EAST AT
AROUND 20 KT WITH 30-35 KT ALONG BOWING SEGMENTS. THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT BECOMES INCREASINGLY MARGINAL WITH EWD EXTENT INTO MN
WHERE MUCAPE DROPS BELOW 800 J/KG. THIS ALONG WITH A STABILIZING
BOUNDARY LAYER LOWERS OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE THREAT EAST OF
CURRENT WW. LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY VEER IN WAKE OF
UPPER IMPULSE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW EJECTING THROUGH ND.
HOWEVER...A SECONDARY IMPULSE LIFTING NNEWD THROUGH E-CNTRL SD MAY
EXERT A GLANCING INFLUENCE ON THE LINE AND 50+ KT BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY. A
TRANSITION TO A HIGH SHEAR WITH LARGE HODOGRAPHS AND LOW CAPE
ENVIRONMENT MAKES THE FUTURE THREAT SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL BUT WITH
SOME RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY AND CONFLICTING SIGNALS...WW ISSUANCE EAST OF CURRENT
WATCHES WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON TRENDS DURING THE NEXT 20-30 MIN.

..DIAL.. 08/31/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON 44119655 46549553 48569484 48429300 46769354 44019538
44119655

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KGJT [310219]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 310219
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
819 PM MDT MON AUG 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0203 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 NW MACK 39.27N 108.93W
08/30/2010 M45 MPH MESA CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1000673

$$

MALEKSA

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KABR [310213]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 310213
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
912 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0845 PM TSTM WND GST CLEAR LAKE 44.77N 96.68W
08/30/2010 E60 MPH DEUEL SD LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

DMOHR

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KLBF [310149]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KLBF 310149
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
848 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0325 PM TSTM WND GST STOCKVILLE 40.53N 100.38W
08/30/2010 E60.00 MPH FRONTIER NE PUBLIC

THE WINDS DOWNED TREE BRANCHES AT LEAST 4 INCHES IN
DIAMETER.

0330 PM TSTM WND DMG CURTIS 40.63N 100.51W
08/30/2010 FRONTIER NE TRAINED SPOTTER

FOUR TO EIGHT INCH DIAMETER TREE BRANCHES WERE DOWNED BY
THUNDERSTORM WINDS.

0425 PM TSTM WND GST 5 SE OCONTO 41.09N 99.69W
08/30/2010 E50.00 MPH CUSTER NE PUBLIC

0440 PM TSTM WND GST AINSWORTH 42.55N 99.86W
08/30/2010 E80.00 MPH BROWN NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

THE THUNDERSTORM WINDS PRODUCED CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE IN
AND NEAR AINSWORTH...INCLUDING THE DESTRUCTION OF BOTH A
90 FT BY 30 FT HORSE BARN AND A SEPARATE STORAGE BARN.
TREES AND POWER LINES WERE DOWNED...AND THE COMMUNITY WAS
WITHOUT POWER FOR ABOUT 2 HOURS.

0440 PM TSTM WND DMG AINSWORTH 42.55N 99.86W
08/30/2010 BROWN NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

THERE IS CURRENTLY NO POWER IN TOWN AND TREES ARE DOWN
ALL OVER THE COMMUNITY. BUILDINGS WERE REPORTEDLY
DESTROYED JUST NORTH OF TOWN.

0442 PM TSTM WND GST BROKEN BOW 41.41N 99.64W
08/30/2010 M52.00 MPH CUSTER NE ASOS

0443 PM HAIL AINSWORTH 42.55N 99.86W
08/30/2010 M1.00 INCH BROWN NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

0510 PM TSTM WND GST 8 NE BREWSTER 42.02N 99.75W
08/30/2010 E60.00 MPH BLAINE NE PUBLIC

0517 PM TSTM WND GST 1 SW MILLS 42.93N 99.41W
08/30/2010 E60.00 MPH KEYA PAHA NE PUBLIC

WINDS ESTIMATED 50 TO 60 MPH.

0517 PM HAIL 1 SW MILLS 42.93N 99.41W
08/30/2010 M1.00 INCH KEYA PAHA NE PUBLIC

0545 PM TSTM WND GST 7 SW AMELIA 42.16N 99.06W
08/30/2010 E50.00 MPH HOLT NE PUBLIC

WINDS ESTIMATED AT 45 TO 50 MPH.

0545 PM TSTM WND GST 3 W AMELIA 42.23N 99.02W
08/30/2010 E50.00 MPH HOLT NE PUBLIC

WINDS ESTIMATED TO 50 MPH.

0550 PM TSTM WND GST 14 NNE BURWELL 41.97N 99.03W
08/30/2010 E60.00 MPH GARFIELD NE PUBLIC

STRONG WINDS AT 50 TO 60 MPH WRAPPED TIN AROUND A POST.

0610 PM TSTM WND GST ONEILL 42.46N 98.65W
08/30/2010 M60.00 MPH HOLT NE AWOS

0618 PM TSTM WND GST 6 S CHAMBERS 42.12N 98.75W
08/30/2010 E70.00 MPH HOLT NE FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

0642 PM TSTM WND GST LYNCH 42.83N 98.47W
08/30/2010 E60.00 MPH BOYD NE PUBLIC

0720 PM TSTM WND GST VALENTINE 42.87N 100.55W
08/30/2010 M49.00 MPH CHERRY NE ASOS

&&

$$

CJS

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KLBF [310146]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 310146
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
846 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0720 PM TSTM WND GST VALENTINE 42.87N 100.55W
08/30/2010 M49.00 MPH CHERRY NE ASOS

&&

$$

CJS

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KFSD [310123]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFSD 310123
LSRFSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
823 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0755 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 NNW OLDHAM 44.28N 97.33W
08/30/2010 KINGSBURY SD PUBLIC

TREES DOWN AND SEMI BLOWN OVER

&&

$$

JSHEEHAN

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KFSD [310101]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFSD 310101
LSRFSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
801 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0720 PM TSTM WND GST PARKSTON 43.39N 97.99W
08/30/2010 E60 MPH HUTCHINSON SD PUBLIC

&&

$$

JH

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 310056
SWODY1
SPC AC 310054

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

VALID 310100Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS/NORTHEAST NEB TO MN...

...NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...
EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES A 1000 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL ND...WITH A STRONG SSW-NNE ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE
REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS EASTERN ND...WITH THE REMAINING
PORTION OF THE FRONT STEADILY ADVANCING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN NEB/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS VICINITY. THE MAJORITY OF THE SEVERE
THREAT THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN DAKOTAS/NORTHEAST NEB INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OR HALF OF MN.
MULTIPLE CONGEALING WAVES OF STORMS WILL QUICKLY RACE NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD
OF A MID LEVEL IMPULSE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CROSSING
NORTHEAST NEB/SOUTHEAST SD EARLY THIS EVENING.

WITH 00Z OBSERVED RAOBS/REGIONAL DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATIVE OF
VERY STRONG DEEP TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND A VEER-BACK TYPE WIND PROFILE
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS...A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE WILL
REMAIN DOMINANT THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH EMBEDDED BOWS POSING A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT. AN ISOLATED/EMBEDDED TORNADO RISK WILL
NONETHELESS EXIST GIVEN CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL SRH /300-500 M2 PER
S2 0-1 KM/ IN CONCERT WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET AND A MOIST ENVIRONMENT.

OTHER TSTMS...WITHIN A POST-SURFACE FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE
MAIN NORTHEAST EJECTING VORT MAX...MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A SEVERE
WIND/HAIL THREAT MAINLY THROUGH MID EVENING ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHERN
ND AND NORTHERN SD.

..GUYER.. 08/31/2010

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KCYS [302132]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 302132
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
332 PM MDT MON AUG 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0319 PM HAIL BUSHNELL 41.23N 103.89W
08/30/2010 M0.25 INCH KIMBALL NE TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL FELL BETWEEN 314 AND 319 PM.

0323 PM HAIL 8 NE BUSHNELL 41.31N 103.78W
08/30/2010 M0.25 INCH KIMBALL NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

MWEILAND

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KABR [302125]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 302125
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
425 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0418 PM TSTM WND GST RICHMOND LAKE REC AREA 45.54N 98.61W
08/30/2010 E70 MPH BROWN SD NWS EMPLOYEE

WIND BLEW OUT HOUSE WINDOWS

&&

$$

NWS

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KLBF [302116]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 302116
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
416 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM TSTM WND DMG CURTIS 40.63N 100.51W
08/30/2010 FRONTIER NE TRAINED SPOTTER

FOUR TO EIGHT INCH DIAMETER TREE BRANCHES WERE DOWNED BY
THUNDERSTORM WINDS.

&&

$$

CJS

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KGID [302116]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 302116
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
416 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0405 PM TSTM WND GST 7 N LEXINGTON 40.88N 99.74W
08/30/2010 E70 MPH DAWSON NE TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED 65 TO 70 MPH WINDS.

&&

$$

WESELY

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KGID [302108]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 302108
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
408 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0407 PM TSTM WND GST LEXINGTON AIRPORT 40.79N 99.78W
08/30/2010 M54 MPH DAWSON NE AWOS

&&

$$

PFANNKUCH

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KGID [302107]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 302107
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
406 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM TSTM WND GST JOHNSON LAKE 40.68N 99.85W
08/30/2010 E50 MPH GOSPER NE TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

WESELY

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KCYS [302104]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 302104
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
304 PM MDT MON AUG 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0251 PM TSTM WND GST LARAMIE 41.31N 105.58W
08/30/2010 M57 MPH ALBANY WY ASOS

&&

$$

BCHAPMAN

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KGID [302059]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 302059
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
359 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0354 PM TSTM WND GST GOTHENBURG 40.93N 100.16W
08/30/2010 M60 MPH DAWSON NE UTILITY COMPANY

MEASURED 60 MPH GUST AT CENTRAL NEBRASKA PUBLIC POWER

&&

$$

PFANNKUCH

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 635

WWUS20 KWNS 302054
SEL5
SPC WW 302054
MNZ000-NDZ000-310300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 635
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
355 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 355 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
ROSEAU MINNESOTA TO 75 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF JAMESTOWN NORTH
DAKOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 633...WW 634...

DISCUSSION...WITH SURFACE LOW TRACKING NEWD TOWARD ERN ND AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WATCH...FAVORABLE SHEAR WILL BE
AVAILABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. MDTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
BECOMING UNCAPPED S OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THUS EXPECT RAPID SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEXT COUPLE HOURS. IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035.

...HALES

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KGID [302052]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 302052
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
352 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0350 PM TSTM WND GST 5 NNE FARNAM 40.77N 100.18W
08/30/2010 E60 MPH DAWSON NE TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED 60 MPH WINDS STARTED AT 345 PM

&&

$$

PFANNKUCH

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KGID [302047]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 302047
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
347 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0340 PM TSTM WND GST FARNAM 40.71N 100.21W
08/30/2010 E50.00 MPH DAWSON NE PUBLIC

ESTIMATED 50 MPH WINDS

&&

$$

PFANNKUCH

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1760

ACUS11 KWNS 302035
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302035
MNZ000-NDZ000-SDZ000-302130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1760
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PART OF NRN SD INTO SRN-SERN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 302035Z - 302130Z

WW MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PART OF NRN SD
INTO SRN-SERN ND.

AT 20Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY ACROSS NWRN SD INTO SWRN ND
INDICATED A RECENT INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE/INTENSITY...WITH A
SPLITTING SUPERCELL OVER ERN ADAMS/SWRN GRANT COUNTIES ND. THIS
ACTIVITY IS LOCATED W/NW OF A SURFACE LOW CENTERED ALONG THE BORDER
OF NORTH CENTRAL SD/SOUTH CENTRAL ND...AND NEAR A MIDLEVEL IMPULSE
LIFTING NNEWD ACROSS SWRN ND/NWRN SD PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THESE
STORMS WERE FORMING ALONG THE WRN EXTENT OF GREATER MOISTURE/
INSTABILITY...GIVEN ELY SURFACE WINDS INVOF A FRONT EXTENDING ENEWD
FROM THE LOW MAINTAINING DESTABILIZATION. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH INCREASED HODOGRAPH CURVATURE
INVOF THE FRONT ENHANCING A TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY
FOR STORMS TO BECOME SURFACE BASED CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM AS
SBCINH HAS NOT REDUCED SUFFICIENTLY FOR STORMS TO ROOT TO THE
SURFACE. 19Z RUC SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF
90+ F SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS...AND INCREASED
SEVERE STORM THREAT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SD INTO SRN-SERN
ND LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

..PETERS.. 08/30/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON 45200232 46270218 47050077 47969754 47809693 46609681
46019683 45949869 45389897 45200232

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KLBF [302035]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 302035
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
335 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0325 PM TSTM WND GST STOCKVILLE 40.53N 100.38W
08/30/2010 E60 MPH FRONTIER NE PUBLIC

THE WINDS DOWNED TREE BRANCHES AT LEAST 4 INCHES IN
DIAMETER.

&&

$$

CJS

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KRIW [302034]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KRIW 302034
LSRRIW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
234 PM MDT MON AUG 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1250 PM HAIL 2 NNE LUCERNE 43.76N 108.15W
08/30/2010 M1.50 INCH HOT SPRINGS WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0204 PM HAIL 2 SE TEN SLEEP 44.01N 107.42W
08/30/2010 M1.75 INCH WASHAKIE WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

WHITE COLORED FUNNEL CLOUD WITNESSED AT THE SAME TIME.

0209 PM HAIL 4 NE TEN SLEEP 44.08N 107.39W
08/30/2010 E0.75 INCH WASHAKIE WY CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

DLIPSON

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 634

WWUS20 KWNS 302025
SEL4
SPC WW 302025
MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-310300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 634
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
325 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SMALL PART OF WESTERN MINNESOTA
MUCH OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA
MUCH 0F EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 325 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF NORTH PLATTE NEBRASKA TO 55 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ORTONVILLE MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 633...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND
INTENSITY ALONG WESTERN EDGE OF STRONG MOISTURE INSTABILITY GRADIENT
IN THE AXIS OF 40-50 KT LLJ. GIVEN THE 40-50 KT OF SHEAR AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES...DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT. HOWEVER SUFFICIENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY FOR MORE DISCRETE
STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...WHICH WOULD ENHANCE RISK OF SEVERE
INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 22035.

...HALES

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KGLD [302018]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 302018
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
218 PM MDT MON AUG 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0202 PM TSTM WND GST 3 NE MCCOOK 40.23N 100.58W
08/30/2010 M59 MPH RED WILLOW NE ASOS

&&

$$

PMM

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1759

ACUS11 KWNS 301945
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301945
SDZ000-NEZ000-302015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1759
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0245 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/NERN NEB AND CENTRAL/ERN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 301945Z - 302015Z

WW WILL BE NEEDED SOON ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/NERN NEB INTO
CENTRAL/ERN SD.

CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS THE PLAINS HAS INHIBITED STRONGER UPDRAFTS
FROM FORMING THUS FAR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY INDICATED AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS /WITH ISOLATED
LIGHTNING OVER NWRN KS/ ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF A CLOUD SHIELD WHICH
EXTENDED FROM NWRN KS INTO CENTRAL SD. AIR MASS E OF THIS
CONVECTION IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AS A PAIR OF MIDLEVEL IMPULSES TRACK NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING /INTO
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S/ WILL FURTHER DECREASE ANY REMAINING
INHIBITION TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREATS. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING LLJ
INCREASING HODOGRAPH CURVATURE SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT.

..PETERS.. 08/30/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...

LAT...LON 40069876 40070193 41010182 42700123 44390066 45860033
45799704 44009727 42049780 40069876

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 301936
SWODY1
SPC AC 301935

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

VALID 302000Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS
INTO MN...

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...

HAVE OPTED TO ADD HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING -
PRIMARILY ACROSS SERN MT AND EXTREME NRN WY. THIS UPGRADE IS TO
REFLECT THE INCREASING CONVECTION THAT IS DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF
THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL
VORT MAX. WITH WEAK NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION IT
APPEARS THERE IS AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DISCRETE SEVERE SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS EVEN AN
ISOLATED TORNADO.

FARTHER EAST...EARLIER FORECAST WILL NOT BE MODIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO NEB. LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY CLEARLY
DEPICT A WEAK IMPULSE EJECTING ACROSS WRN SD/NEB - WELL AHEAD OF
UPPER VORT. THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THICKER
CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT IS SUPPRESSING SFC
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT. EVEN SO...INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND GRADUAL BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE
PLAINS SHOULD ENCOURAGE STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG LEADING EDGE OF WEAK
PRECIPITATION SHIELD.

..DARROW.. 08/30/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT MON AUG 30 2010/

...SYNOPSIS...
SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE HAS MOVED THRU WRN U.S. TROUGH AND CURRENTLY
ROTATING NEWD ACROSS CO/WY...WELL DEPICTED ON BOTH W/V IMAGERY AND
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS. SURFACE FRONT HAS STALLED FROM NWRN MN SWWD TO
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW CENTRAL SD. GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW
NWD THRU THE PLAINS E OF FRONT AND SURFACE LOW ON 40KT LOW LEVEL
JET. THE WAVE/SURFACE LOW SHOULD MOVE NEWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO
ERN ND BY EVE...BEFORE CONTINUING NE WITH FURTHER DEEPENING OVER SE
MB/WRN ONT EARLY TUE. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...TRAILING COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SEWD... OVERTAKING PREFRONTAL TROUGH NOW OVER
THE CNTRL HI PLNS.

...NRN/CNTRL PLNS TO UPR MS VLY TODAY/TONIGHT...
BY MID/LATE AFTN A SVR RISK SHOULD EVOLVE FROM ERN ND S/SW INTO
CNTRL/ERN SD AND PARTS OF NEB AS COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING AND
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL
LEAD TO SFC-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT INVOF DEEPENING SFC LOW...AND
ALONG LEE TROUGH/COLD FRONT.

40-50 KT SSWLY MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...INCREASING MOISTURE /PW
1.50-1.75 INCHES/...AND FAVORABLE JUXTAPOSITION OF VERTICAL
SHEAR/BUOYANCY LIKELY WILL YIELD A SEVERAL HOUR WINDOW SUPPORTIVE OF
SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS POSING A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.
THE TORNADO THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE GREATEST OVER THE ERN
DAKOTAS...NE OF DEEPENING SFC LOW. HOWEVER...GIVEN LIKELIHOOD FOR
STORM INITIATION NOT ONLY NEAR SFC WAVE...BUT ALSO SWD ALONG
ACCELERATING COLD FRONT/PREFRONTAL TROUGH INTO NEB...TORNADO THREAT
IN THIS CASE WILL BE ESPECIALLY DEPENDENT ON STORM SCALE
EVOLUTION/INTERACTIONS. GIVEN STRENGTH OF 700 MB
FLOW...STRENGTHENING OF LLJ TOWARD/AFTER DARK...AND COINCIDENT
ARRIVAL OF RICHER LOW LVL MOISTURE FROM IA/ERN NEB...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST AN ISOLD TORNADO THREAT CONTINUING NEWD INTO
WRN MN AFTER SUNSET. STORMS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE
BROKEN QLCSS DURING THE EVENING WITH WIND DAMAGE THE DOMINANT
CONCERN.

..SRN HI PLNS THIS AFTN/EVE...
MORE ISOLD SVR THREAT...POSED BY SCTD MULTICELL CLUSTERS MAY EVOLVE
THIS AFTN/EVE FARTHER S ALONG NNE/SSW LEE TROUGH FROM WRN KS SSW
INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES...W TX...AND ERN NM. THIS REGION WILL
REMAIN REMOVED FROM STRONGEST ASCENT/MID LVL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH
CO/WY SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BUT DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER/STEEP LOW
LVL LAPSE RATES...MODERATE MOISTURE...AND 25-35 KT DEEP SSWLY FLOW
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD SVR WIND GUSTS THROUGH ABOUT MID EVE.

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 633

WWUS20 KWNS 301902
SEL3
SPC WW 301902
MTZ000-WYZ000-310100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 633
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
105 PM MDT MON AUG 30 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 105 PM UNTIL 700
PM MDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF WORLAND WYOMING TO 80 MILES EAST OF GILLETTE
WYOMING. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING AHEAD OF VIGOROUS TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL WY ATTM. WITH MLCAPES TO 1000 J/KG AND LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE E OF BIG HORN MTNS...EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL TO INCREASE EWD ACROSS THE WATCH THRU THE AFTERNOON
HEATING PERIOD.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24025.

...HALES

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1758

ACUS11 KWNS 301819
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301819
MNZ000-NDZ000-301915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1758
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN...CENTRAL AND NERN ND/FAR NWRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 301819Z - 301915Z

ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PRIMARILY A THREAT FOR
HAIL...WITH A FEW POTENTIALLY BECOMING SEVERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME ACROSS PARTS OF WRN/CENTRAL AND NERN ND INTO FAR NWRN
MN.

AT 18Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED AN INCREASE IN
TSTM DEVELOPMENT N OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHICH STRETCHED SWWD
FROM NWRN MN THROUGH SERN-SOUTH CENTRAL ND TO AN AREA OF DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL SD. WSR-88D VWPS SHOWED SLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS TO THE E OF THE SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE ERN
DAKOTAS. LOW LEVEL WAA ALONG AND N OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A PAIR OF MIDLEVEL
IMPULSES LIFTING NNEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND WRN SD ARE
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ELEVATED TSTMS ACROSS ND. DESPITE
WEAK MLCAPE VALUES N OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...MUCAPE 750-1500 J/KG
AND STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /AROUND 50 KT/ SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW
ORGANIZED STORMS. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /7-8 C PER KM/ WILL
FAVOR HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

..PETERS.. 08/30/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON 49029702 47779649 47199788 46290097 46010193 45950291
46350299 48190254 48980179 49029702

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1757

ACUS11 KWNS 301732
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301732
MTZ000-WYZ000-301800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1757
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WY AND SERN MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 301732Z - 301800Z

WW IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR PARTS OF NERN WY AND SERN MT AS TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
THIS REGION. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS.

AT 1715Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED TSTMS
BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER WRN WY INVOF RIW WHERE THE
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. ADDITIONAL
STORMS WERE ALSO FORMING ALONG THE ATTENDANT N-S ORIENTED COLD
FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING FORCED BY STRONG UVVS ATTENDANT TO A
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING NEWD THROUGH WRN WY.
THIS COMBINED WITH UVVS WITHIN EXIT REGION OF 60 KT SSWLY MIDLEVEL
JET WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE
HEATING ENE OF THIS FRONT COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW-MID 50S BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES/COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL RESULT IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION /MLCAPE 1000+ J PER KG/.
THIS INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST A FEW
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

..PETERS.. 08/30/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON 43240733 43450809 43660835 44880846 46320715 46490416
45770404 43940413 43450551 43240733

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 301707
SWODY2
SPC AC 301706

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1206 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO
THE CNTRL PLAINS...

...UPPER GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL PLAINS...

12Z NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE
PRIMARY SPEED MAX EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE INTO NWRN ONTARIO BY 01/00Z.
AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM...A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT WILL
SURGE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TO A POSITION FROM NCNTRL MN...SSWWD INTO
SERN NEB BY 18Z. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SOME OF IT STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE...BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON.

LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST STRONG SFC HEATING MAY BE LIMITED
TO PORTIONS OF NEB...AND IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE WIND SHIFT INTO
PORTIONS OF SWRN MN. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE EXPECTED EARLY
MORNING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE
WARM CONVEYOR/LLJ. AS A RESULT...STEEPEST LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE CNTRL PLAINS. IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW
MUCH...IF ANY...SEVERE WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
AS AIRMASS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE UNTIL AFTERNOON HEATING
AIDS INSTABILITY. FORECAST SHEAR IS ALSO NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT
STRONG AS THE MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL TRAIL THE FRONTAL ZONE
CONSIDERABLY SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. EVEN SO...IT APPEARS
CLOUD LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STRONG MULTI-CELLS AND ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN MN INTO SERN NEB WHERE MUCAPE
SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 2000-2500 J/KG. HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS
WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH A NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN THE LLJ
EXPECTED ACROSS KS...AN MCS COULD PROPAGATE SEWD INTO PORTIONS OF
NERN KS/NRN MO AFTER MIDNIGHT.

..DARROW.. 08/30/2010

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KLCH [301706]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KLCH 301706
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1206 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0616 AM FLASH FLOOD 7 W ALEXANDRIA 31.31N 92.58W
08/29/2010 RAPIDES LA EMERGENCY MNGR

RAPIDES PARISH EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED WATER
COVERING SEVERAL ROADWAYS WEST OF ALEXANDRIA ALONG BAYOU
RAPIDES ROAD AROUND COOPER ROAD AND SCHOOLHOUSE ROAD. 3
TO 5 HOMES WERE REPORTEDLY FLOODED WITH SEVERAL HOMES
RECEIVING SANDBAGS AS PROTECTION FROM FLOOD WATERS. 2.83
INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN ONE HOUR AT THE ALEXANDRIA AIRPORT
WITH A FOUR HOUR TOTAL OF 5.28 INCHES.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER

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KLCH [301705]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KLCH 301705
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1205 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0616 AM FLASH FLOOD 7 W ALEXANDRIA 31.31N 92.58W
08/29/2010 RAPIDES LA EMERGENCY MNGR

RAPISED PARISH EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED WATER
COVERING SEVERAL ROADWAYS WEST OF ALEXANDRIA ALONG BAYOU
RAPIDES ROAD AROUND COOPER ROAD AND SCHOOLHOUSE ROAD. 3
TO 5 HOMES WERE REPORTEDLY FLOODED WITH SEVERAL HOMES
RECEIVING SANDBAGS AS PROTECTION FROM FLOOD WATERS. 2.83
INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN ONE HOUR AT THE ALEXANDRIA AIRPORT
WITH A FOUR HOUR TOTAL OF 5.28 INCHES.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER

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KRIW [301623]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KRIW 301623
LSRRIW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1023 AM MDT MON AUG 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0905 AM HAIL 3 SE CODY 44.49N 109.01W
08/30/2010 E0.75 INCH PARK WY PUBLIC

COCORAHS OBSERVER REPORTED HAIL FROM .25 TO .75 INCHES IN
DIAMETER AS THIS STORM MOVED THROUGH FOR APPROXIMATELY 6
MINUTES.

&&

$$

SKRBAC

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 301607
SWODY1
SPC AC 301606

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 AM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

VALID 301630Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN/CNTRL PLNS INTO
THE UPR MS VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE HAS MOVED THRU WRN U.S. TROUGH AND CURRENTLY
ROTATING NEWD ACROSS CO/WY...WELL DEPICTED ON BOTH W/V IMAGERY AND
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS. SURFACE FRONT HAS STALLED FROM NWRN MN SWWD TO
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW CENTRAL SD. GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW
NWD THRU THE PLAINS E OF FRONT AND SURFACE LOW ON 40KT LOW LEVEL
JET. THE WAVE/SURFACE LOW SHOULD MOVE NEWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO
ERN ND BY EVE...BEFORE CONTINUING NE WITH FURTHER DEEPENING OVER SE
MB/WRN ONT EARLY TUE. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...TRAILING COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SEWD... OVERTAKING PREFRONTAL TROUGH NOW OVER
THE CNTRL HI PLNS.

...NRN/CNTRL PLNS TO UPR MS VLY TODAY/TONIGHT...
BY MID/LATE AFTN A SVR RISK SHOULD EVOLVE FROM ERN ND S/SW INTO
CNTRL/ERN SD AND PARTS OF NEB AS COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING AND
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL
LEAD TO SFC-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT INVOF DEEPENING SFC LOW...AND
ALONG LEE TROUGH/COLD FRONT.

40-50 KT SSWLY MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...INCREASING MOISTURE /PW
1.50-1.75 INCHES/...AND FAVORABLE JUXTAPOSITION OF VERTICAL
SHEAR/BUOYANCY LIKELY WILL YIELD A SEVERAL HOUR WINDOW SUPPORTIVE OF
SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS POSING A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.
THE TORNADO THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE GREATEST OVER THE ERN
DAKOTAS...NE OF DEEPENING SFC LOW. HOWEVER...GIVEN LIKELIHOOD FOR
STORM INITIATION NOT ONLY NEAR SFC WAVE...BUT ALSO SWD ALONG
ACCELERATING COLD FRONT/PREFRONTAL TROUGH INTO NEB...TORNADO THREAT
IN THIS CASE WILL BE ESPECIALLY DEPENDENT ON STORM SCALE
EVOLUTION/INTERACTIONS. GIVEN STRENGTH OF 700 MB
FLOW...STRENGTHENING OF LLJ TOWARD/AFTER DARK...AND COINCIDENT
ARRIVAL OF RICHER LOW LVL MOISTURE FROM IA/ERN NEB...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST AN ISOLD TORNADO THREAT CONTINUING NEWD INTO
WRN MN AFTER SUNSET. STORMS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE
BROKEN QLCSS DURING THE EVENING WITH WIND DAMAGE THE DOMINANT
CONCERN.

..SRN HI PLNS THIS AFTN/EVE...
MORE ISOLD SVR THREAT...POSED BY SCTD MULTICELL CLUSTERS MAY EVOLVE
THIS AFTN/EVE FARTHER S ALONG NNE/SSW LEE TROUGH FROM WRN KS SSW
INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES...W TX...AND ERN NM. THIS REGION WILL
REMAIN REMOVED FROM STRONGEST ASCENT/MID LVL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH
CO/WY SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BUT DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER/STEEP LOW
LVL LAPSE RATES...MODERATE MOISTURE...AND 25-35 KT DEEP SSWLY FLOW
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD SVR WIND GUSTS THROUGH ABOUT MID EVE.

..HALES/HURLBUT.. 08/30/2010

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KJAX [301523]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 301523
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1123 AM EDT MON AUG 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1114 AM RIP CURRENTS JACKSONVILLE BEACH 30.28N 81.39W
08/28/2010 DUVAL FL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

THE JACKSONVILLE BEACH LIFE GUARD STATION REPORTED 3 RIP
CURRENT RESCUES ON SATURDAY. THERE WAS ONE NEAR DROWNING
DUE TO A RIP CURRENT WHEN THE GUARDS WERE NOT ON DUTY.

1114 AM RIP CURRENTS JACKSONVILLE BEACH 30.28N 81.39W
08/29/2010 DUVAL FL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

THE JACKSONVILLE BEACH LIFE GUARD STATION REPORTED 3 RIP
CURRENT RESUCES ON SUNDAY.

&&

$$

AENYEDI

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KCHS [301519]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 301519
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1119 AM EDT MON AUG 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1118 AM RIP CURRENTS TYBEE ISLAND 32.00N 80.85W
08/30/2010 CHATHAM GA PARK/FOREST SRVC

SEVERAL LARGE RIP CURRENTS ONGOING AT TYBEE ISLAND.
LIFEGUARDS NOT ALLOWING SWIMMING TODAY.

&&

$$

JRL

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KFGF [301400]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 301400
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
900 AM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0625 AM HAIL TOKIO 47.92N 98.82W
08/30/2010 E1.00 INCH BENSON ND PUBLIC

&&

$$

GGUST

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KGJT [301349]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 301349
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
749 AM MDT MON AUG 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0724 AM TSTM WND GST CRAIG 40.52N 107.55W
08/30/2010 M58 MPH MOFFAT CO ASOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1000672

$$

CC

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KBIS [301237]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 301237
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
737 AM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0501 AM HAIL 5 W SYKESTON 47.47N 99.51W
08/30/2010 M1.75 INCH WELLS ND TRAINED SPOTTER

LASTED 5 TO 10 MINUTES

&&

$$

HW

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 301227
SWODY1
SPC AC 301226

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0726 AM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

VALID 301300Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN/CNTRL PLNS INTO
THE UPR MS VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED WRN TROUGH/ERN RIDGE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD AS
POTENT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER UT EJECTS NE ACROSS THE CNTRL
RCKYS INTO THE NRN PLNS...AND UPSTREAM JET STREAK NOW OFF THE ORE
CST CONTINUES ESE TO THE NRN GRT BASIN. APPROACH OF UT DISTURBANCE
SHOULD SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION OF EXISTING SFC WAVE ALONG STALLED
FRONT OVER SD/NW NEB TODAY. THE WAVE SHOULD MOVE NEWD ALONG THE
BOUNDARY INTO ERN ND BY EVE...BEFORE CONTINUING NE WITH FURTHER
DEEPENING OVER SE MB/WRN ONT EARLY TUE. IN THE WAKE OF THE
LOW...TRAILING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SEWD... OVERTAKING
PREFRONTAL TROUGH NOW OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS.

...NRN/CNTRL PLNS TO UPR MS VLY TODAY/TONIGHT...
PERIODIC EPISODES OF ELEVATED TSTMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD YIELD SVR
HAIL...EXPECTED TODAY ALONG/N OF AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT OVER THE
NRN PLNS. THE HAIL RISK SHOULD BE GREATEST FROM NERN WY AND SE MT
INTO WRN/NRN ND. THIS THREAT MAY INCREASE DURING THE AFTN AS ASCENT
STRENGTHENS WITH APPROACH OF UT UPR VORT.

BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE...A MORE APPRECIABLE SVR RISK SHOULD EVOLVE
FROM ERN ND S/SW INTO CNTRL/ERN SD AND PARTS OF NEB AS COMBINATION
OF SFC HEATING AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOSTER SFC-BASED
STORM DEVELOPMENT INVOF DEEPENING SFC LOW...AND ALONG LEE
TROUGH/COLD FRONT. DEVELOPMENT ALSO MAY BE AIDED BY NNEWD
ACCELERATION OF MID LVL IMPULSE/MOISTURE MAX NOW IN SRN CO.

40-50 KT SSWLY MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...INCREASING MOISTURE /PW
1.50-1.75 INCHES/...AND FAVORABLE JUXTAPOSITION OF VERTICAL
SHEAR/BUOYANCY LIKELY WILL YIELD A SEVERAL HOUR WINDOW FOR
SUPPORTIVE OF SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS POSING A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL
AND TORNADOES. THE TORNADO THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE GREATEST OVER
THE ERN DAKOTAS...NE OF DEEPENING SFC LOW. HOWEVER...GIVEN
LIKELIHOOD FOR STORM INITIATION NOT ONLY NEAR SFC WAVE...BUT ALSO
SWD ALONG ACCELERATING COLD FRONT/PREFRONTAL TROUGH INTO
NEB...TORNADO THREAT IN THIS CASE WILL BE ESPECIALLY DEPENDENT ON
STORM SCALE EVOLUTION/INTERACTIONS THAT CANNOT BE ACCURATELY
FORECAST THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. AT ANY RATE...GIVEN STRENGTH OF 700
MB FLOW...STRENGTHENING OF LLJ TOWARD/AFTER DARK...AND COINCIDENT
ARRIVAL OF RICHER LOW LVL MOISTURE FROM IA...SITUATION BEARS WATCH
FOR AT LEAST AN ISOLD TORNADO THREAT CONTINUING NEWD INTO WRN MN
AFTER SUNSET...DESPITE LIKELY EVOLUTION OF STORMS INTO ONE OR MORE
BROKEN QLCSS BY THAT TIME.

DMGG WINDS SHOULD BECOME THE MAIN CONCERN LATER THIS EVE AS THE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS AND THEIR EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS CONTINUE
MAINLY NE ACROSS ERN SD AND MN. REGENERATIVE/BACKBUILDING STORMS
MAY PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUE ALONG WRN EDGE OF LLJ IN ERN NEB/WRN
IA.

...SRN HI PLNS THIS AFTN/EVE...
A MORE ISOLD SVR THREAT...POSED BY SCTD MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE
OF DOWNBURSTS AND PERHAPS A SPOT OR TWO OF HAIL...MAY EVOLVE THIS
AFTN/EVE FARTHER S ALONG NNE/SSW LEE TROUGH FROM WRN KS SSW INTO THE
OK/TX PANHANDLES...W TX...AND ERN NM. THIS REGION WILL REMAIN
REMOVED FROM STRONGEST ASCENT/MID LVL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH UT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BUT DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER/STEEP LOW LVL
LAPSE RATES...MODERATE MOISTURE...AND 25-35 KT DEEP SSWLY FLOW
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD SVR WIND GUSTS THROUGH ABOUT MID EVE.

..CORFIDI/ROGERS.. 08/30/2010

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KSLC [301224]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KSLC 301224
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
624 AM MDT MON AUG 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0610 AM HAIL WEST JORDAN 40.60N 112.00W
08/30/2010 E0.50 INCH SALT LAKE UT TRAINED SPOTTER

0610 AM HAIL SOUTH JORDAN 40.56N 111.97W
08/30/2010 E0.50 INCH SALT LAKE UT NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

$$

MPS

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KGSP [301124]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 301124
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
724 AM EDT MON AUG 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM FLASH FLOOD 4 ESE SHELBY 35.27N 81.48W
08/19/2010 CLEVELAND NC NEWSPAPER

HOMES AND GOLF COURSE WERE FLOODED ALONG MUDDY AND
BUFFALO CREEKS.

&&

$$

PTANNER

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KFGF [301056]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 301056
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
556 AM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0554 AM HAIL NEW ROCKFORD 47.68N 99.14W
08/30/2010 M1.00 INCH EDDY ND FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

$$

JKAISER

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1756

ACUS11 KWNS 301002
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301002
NDZ000-301100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1756
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0502 AM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND ERN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 301002Z - 301100Z

A THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY EXIST ACROSS
SRN AND ERN ND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW REMAINS POSSIBLE IF THE
STORMS CAN CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
MORNING.

A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SCNTRL ND ARE LOCATED FROM 100 TO 120
STATUTE MILES NORTHWEST OF A COLD FRONT ON TOP OF A STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION MAKING THE CONVECTION HIGHLY ELEVATED. THE STORMS ARE
LIKELY BEING SUPPORTED BY A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER CNTRL SD. ETA-KF FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING
ACROSS SCNTRL SD SUGGESTS THE EFFECTIVE CLOUD LAYER SHEAR IS AROUND
60 KT WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE WITH
THE MORE INTENSE CELLS. GUSTY WIND MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
CELLS. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED BUT IF COVERAGE
INCREASES...A WW COULD BE WARRANTED.

..BROYLES.. 08/30/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON 46170014 46749893 46979855 47739749 48079782 48159826
48099888 47710002 47160111 46600136 46140089 46170014

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 300854
SWOD48
SPC AC 300853

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

VALID 021200Z - 071200Z

...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SEVERE RISK AREA...

SUBSTANTIAL VARIABILITY PERSISTS AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE CONCERNING SHORT WAVE DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES. THIS INCLUDES ONE SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE WHICH MAY BE IN
THE PROCESS OF DIGGING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. UNCERTAINTIES ARE TOO LARGE TO
CONFIDENTLY ASSESS THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR THURSDAY...ALONG
AND AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT MAY REMAIN MOIST
AND POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...AS THE UPPER IMPULSE PROGRESSES
EASTWARD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ...HURRICANE
EARL APPEARS LIKELY TO BE MIGRATING NORTHWARD IN CLOSE ENOUGH
PROXIMITY TO THE COAST TO BE A NEGATIVE INFLUENCE ON SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. AND DRYING IN THE WAKE OF BOTH FEATURES MAY BE ENOUGH TO
MITIGATE SUBSTANTIVE DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LABOR DAY WEEKEND...EVEN WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LIKELY TO
STEEPEN WITH THE ADVECTION OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR EAST OF THE
ROCKIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

..KERR.. 08/30/2010

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 300727
SWODY3
SPC AC 300726

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WED AND WED NIGHT ACROSS PARTS
OF THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS AND MID MO VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG...MORE ZONAL BELT OF WESTERLIES EVOLVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. EARLY THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND BEYOND. IN RESPONSE TO
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IMPULSES...UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN STATES APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN...AS HURRICANE EARL MIGRATES NORTHWESTWARD TO THE EAST OF THE
BAHAMAS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT LARGE
VARIABILITY CONCERNING THE SHORT WAVE DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN THE STRONG
FLOW...INCLUDING ONE SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE WHICH IS PROGGED TO DIG
EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
LOW-LEVEL RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE ARE SUBSTANTIAL...CONTRIBUTING TO
UNCERTAIN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

...PARTS OF THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...
DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTIES...RESIDUAL HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER NOW IN THE PROCESS OF RETURNING TO THE
REGION...COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR...PROBABLY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION IS
UNCLEAR...FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL COOLING AND FORCING WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AID THE INITIATION OF STORMS AND STORM
CLUSTERS WITHIN A GENERAL LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME...FROM
PARTS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN KANSAS. THIS COULD
OCCUR AS EARLY AS MIDDAY WEDNESDAY... CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PERHAPS DEVELOPING AS FAR EAST AS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES WESTERLY 500 MB
FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KT...WHICH WILL AT LEAST CONTRIBUTE TO
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED STORM
CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..KERR.. 08/30/2010

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KBYZ [300605]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KBYZ 300605
LSRBYZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1205 AM MDT MON AUG 30 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0354 PM HAIL BILLINGS 45.79N 108.54W
08/29/2010 E1.75 INCH YELLOWSTONE MT PUBLIC

BROKEN CAR WINDOWS ON 27TH AND 6TH DOWNTOWN

0355 PM HAIL 2 NNE BILLINGS 45.82N 108.52W
08/29/2010 E1.25 INCH YELLOWSTONE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0355 PM HAIL BILLINGS 45.79N 108.54W
08/29/2010 E1.75 INCH YELLOWSTONE MT PUBLIC

LOCATED IN THE BILLINGS HEIGHTS - POSSIBLE CAR DAMAGE

0355 PM HAIL BILLINGS 45.84N 108.45W
08/29/2010 E1.00 INCH YELLOWSTONE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0355 PM HAIL BILLINGS 45.79N 108.54W
08/29/2010 E1.00 INCH YELLOWSTONE MT NWS EMPLOYEE

BILLINGS HEIGHTS

0355 PM HAIL BILLINGS 45.79N 108.54W
08/29/2010 E1.00 INCH YELLOWSTONE MT NWS EMPLOYEE

BILLINGS HEIGHTS

0358 PM HAIL BILLINGS 45.79N 108.54W
08/29/2010 E1.00 INCH YELLOWSTONE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0358 PM HAIL BILLINGS 45.79N 108.54W
08/29/2010 E1.50 INCH YELLOWSTONE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0358 PM HAIL 4 ENE BILLINGS 45.82N 108.47W
08/29/2010 E1.00 INCH YELLOWSTONE MT NWS EMPLOYEE

0359 PM HAIL BILLINGS 45.79N 108.54W
08/29/2010 E1.00 INCH YELLOWSTONE MT PUBLIC

&&

$$

TRC

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 300601
SWODY1
SPC AC 300600

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
TODAY/TONIGHT. AS AN EASTERN STATES UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED
NEAR THE APPALACHIANS...THE BASAL PORTION OF THE CURRENT WESTERN
STATES UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT/ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY...AND REACH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/CANADIAN PRAIRIES BY LATE TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
TROUGH...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS IN VICINITY A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE
ACROSS THE NORTH PLAINS...WITH A ROUGHLY NNE-SSW ORIENTED LEE TROUGH
ALSO SHARPENING ACROSS A BROAD LONGITUDINAL EXTENT OF THE HIGH
PLAINS.

...NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...
ALONG/NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN PLAINS SURFACE
FRONT...SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS MAY POSE RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE
HAIL ACROSS EASTERN MT INTO ND TODAY. SUCH A THREAT SHOULD MORE SO
INCREASE IN EARNEST THIS AFTERNOON AIDED BY THE ONSET OF MORE
CONSEQUENTIAL LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/HEIGHT FALLS. BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...A MORE APPRECIABLE SURFACE BASED
SEVERE RISK SHOULD STEADILY EVOLVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NEB IN
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE/SURFACE LOW...PERHAPS AIDED THE
NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OF A MID LEVEL IMPULSE LOCATED ACROSS NM
OVERNIGHT. THE STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR/COOLING ALOFT WILL LAG
/NORTHWEST OF/ THE MAJORITY OF THE DAKOTAS FRONTAL ZONE...BUT
INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUPPORT/MODERATE DESTABILIZATION AND A
NEAR-FRONTAL FAVORABLE JUXTAPOSITION OF VERTICAL SHEAR/BUOYANCY WILL
LIKELY YIELD A MARKED INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

IT APPEARS A SEVERAL HOUR WINDOW FOR SURFACE BASED QUASI-DISCRETE
SUPERCELLULAR STORMS...WITH A LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO RISK...WILL
EXIST MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. THIS SHOULD PRIMARILY BE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE
EAST-NORTHEAST OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
REFLECTIVE OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR TOWARD/AFTER DARK
COINCIDENT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL RH. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER FLOW
LARGELY ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED
FRONTAL ZONE...WITH A VEER-BACK-VEER PATTERN NOTED WITH HEIGHT
THROUGH 2-5 KM PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS...IS SUGGESTIVE OF A
RELATIVELY QUICK QUASI-LINEAR EVOLUTION DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THIS EVOLUTION IS SUPPORTED BY 00Z WRF-NMM EXPLICIT
GUIDANCE...FURTHERING THE IDEA THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL EVOLVE INTO
THE DOMINANT CONCERN DURING THE EVENING. AS STORMS CONGEAL...STRONG
DEEP LAYER/LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ONE OR MORE
WELL-ORGANIZED LINEAR CLUSTERS WITH EMBEDDED BOWS FROM THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS INTO MN.

ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT OTHER LOWER
TOPPED/SURFACE BASED TSTMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MT/NORTHEAST WY INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS...ALONG/NORTH OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ADVANCING FRONT
AMID DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE TRAJECTORIES. GIVEN COOL THERMAL
PROFILES ALOFT/STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...THESE TSTMS COULD POSE A
SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADO RISK PROVIDED
SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION.

SOUTH OF THE DAKOTAS...OTHER SEMI-ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NEB/KS WITHIN A DEEPER MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS/SOME SEVERE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.

...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
A MORE ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF
MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF DOWNBURSTS...IS EXPECTED WITHIN A
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST CORRIDOR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALONG/EAST OF A SHARPENING HIGH PLAINS SURFACE
TROUGH...THIS REGIME WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY
COUPLED WITH MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY MEAN FLOW. GIVEN LIMITED HEIGHT
FALLS/COOLING ALOFT AT THIS LATITUDE AND RESULTANT WEAK LAPSE RATES
ALOFT/MODEST NATURE OF THE VERTICAL SHEAR /25-30 KT/...NOTHING MORE
THAN AN ISOLATED/MARGINAL SEVERE RISK IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

..GUYER/GRAMS.. 08/30/2010

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 300541
SWODY2
SPC AC 300540

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 AM CDT MON AUG 30 2010

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TUE AFTN AND EVE ACROSS PARTS
OF THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
COINCIDENT WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OF A SIGNIFICANT
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN...IT STILL APPEARS
LIKELY THAT THE BROADER SCALE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH...AND DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE...WILL BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED TODAY INTO TUESDAY. THE BELT OF
STRONGER WESTERLIES IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S...AND MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE EMBEDDED IMPULSE WILL GRADUALLY TURN EASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO
LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AFTER LIFTING NORTH OF THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER AREA. JUST HOW FAST THIS OCCURS...AND
LINGERING MID-LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED NEAR THE APPALACHIANS
WEAKENS...REMAINS A POINT OF CONSIDERABLE MODEL VARIABILITY. BUT
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO DIG EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN U.S.
ROCKIES...QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE ONTARIO SYSTEM.

THE SURFACE CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD SYSTEM IS STILL PROGGED
TO MIGRATE WELL NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY
TUESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING OF A SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED
PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT/CONFLUENCE ZONE TENDING TO SHIFT SOUTH OF THE
STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...A NARROW PLUME OF HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AIR ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS FAR SOUTH AND WEST AS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLATEAU REGION.

ANOTHER AREA WITH HIGHER THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES DURING THIS
PERIOD MAY EXIST WITH A WESTWARD MOVING WAVE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GULF COAST/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...IN THE PRESENCE
OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND FAVORABLE INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE...AT
LEAST LOW THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES MAY ACCOMPANY A REMNANT
CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER RIDGE... ACROSS THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...AND
NEAR THE STRONGER WESTERLIES...ACROSS PARTS OF MONTANA AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.

...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION...
MODELS INDICATE THAT STRONG SURFACE HEATING BENEATH AN INITIALLY
CAPPING RESIDUAL ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...COUPLED WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS AROUND 70F...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATELY STRONG BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZATION TUESDAY...FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BY PEAK HEATING...MIXED LAYER
CAPE OF AT LEAST 2000-3000 J/KG APPEARS PROBABLE...PARTICULARLY
ALONG AN AXIS FROM SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA...WHERE MID-LEVEL COOLING IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INHIBITION
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

ALTHOUGH WEST SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW MAY BE
SOMEWHAT MODEST...AROUND 30 KTS...IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING
ASSOCIATED WITH AT LEAST MODESTLY LARGE BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS...TO SUPPORT THE RISK FOR POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS...AND STRONG SURFACE COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT.
WITH A SQUALL LINE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE...THIS THREAT MAY PERSIST AND
SPREAD EAST SOUTHEASTWARD WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
CONVECTION WEAKENS WITH BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION.

ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER...LINGERING STRONGER
FLOW FIELDS MAY SUPPORT SEVERE POTENTIAL AS FAR NORTHEAST AS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.

..KERR.. 08/30/2010

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