SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301732
MTZ000-WYZ000-301800-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1757
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WY AND SERN MT
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 301732Z - 301800Z
WW IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR PARTS OF NERN WY AND SERN MT AS TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
THIS REGION. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS.
AT 1715Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED TSTMS
BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER WRN WY INVOF RIW WHERE THE
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. ADDITIONAL
STORMS WERE ALSO FORMING ALONG THE ATTENDANT N-S ORIENTED COLD
FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING FORCED BY STRONG UVVS ATTENDANT TO A
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LIFTING NEWD THROUGH WRN WY.
THIS COMBINED WITH UVVS WITHIN EXIT REGION OF 60 KT SSWLY MIDLEVEL
JET WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE
HEATING ENE OF THIS FRONT COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW-MID 50S BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES/COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL RESULT IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION /MLCAPE 1000+ J PER KG/.
THIS INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST A FEW
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THE
PRIMARY THREATS.
..PETERS.. 08/30/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...
LAT...LON 43240733 43450809 43660835 44880846 46320715 46490416
45770404 43940413 43450551 43240733
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