SWODY2
SPC AC 301706
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1206 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO
THE CNTRL PLAINS...
...UPPER GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL PLAINS...
12Z NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE
PRIMARY SPEED MAX EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE INTO NWRN ONTARIO BY 01/00Z.
AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM...A PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT WILL
SURGE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TO A POSITION FROM NCNTRL MN...SSWWD INTO
SERN NEB BY 18Z. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SOME OF IT STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE...BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST STRONG SFC HEATING MAY BE LIMITED
TO PORTIONS OF NEB...AND IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE WIND SHIFT INTO
PORTIONS OF SWRN MN. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE EXPECTED EARLY
MORNING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE
WARM CONVEYOR/LLJ. AS A RESULT...STEEPEST LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE CNTRL PLAINS. IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW
MUCH...IF ANY...SEVERE WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
AS AIRMASS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE UNTIL AFTERNOON HEATING
AIDS INSTABILITY. FORECAST SHEAR IS ALSO NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT
STRONG AS THE MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL TRAIL THE FRONTAL ZONE
CONSIDERABLY SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. EVEN SO...IT APPEARS
CLOUD LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STRONG MULTI-CELLS AND ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN MN INTO SERN NEB WHERE MUCAPE
SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 2000-2500 J/KG. HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
PERHAPS EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS
WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH A NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN THE LLJ
EXPECTED ACROSS KS...AN MCS COULD PROPAGATE SEWD INTO PORTIONS OF
NERN KS/NRN MO AFTER MIDNIGHT.
..DARROW.. 08/30/2010
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