Georgia-Florida SKYWARN: 05/23/07

Wednesday, May 23, 2007

KDMX [232038]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDMX 232038
LSRDMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
338 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0328 PM HAIL 5 SSE ATLANTIC 41.33N 95.00W
05/23/2007 E1.25 INCH CASS IA TRAINED SPOTTER

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KICT [232028]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 232028
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
328 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0327 PM TSTM WND GST 6 ESE TURON 37.77N 98.33W
05/23/2007 E60 MPH RENO KS STORM CHASER

BRW

KICT [232027]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 232027
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
327 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0326 PM HAIL 3 ESE TURON 37.79N 98.38W
05/23/2007 E1.75 INCH RENO KS PUBLIC

BRW

KRNK [232021]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 232021
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
421 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0405 PM HAIL SANDLICK 37.33N 81.22W
05/23/2007 E0.88 INCH MERCER WV PUBLIC

JWHITE

KICT [232016]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 232016
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
316 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0316 PM HAIL HUTCHINSON 38.07N 97.91W
05/23/2007 M0.75 INCH RENO KS EMERGENCY MNGR

BRW

KOAX [232016]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 232016
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
316 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0311 PM HAIL RED OAK 41.01N 95.22W
05/23/2007 M0.88 INCH MONTGOMERY IA LAW ENFORCEMENT

0314 PM HAIL RED OAK 41.01N 95.22W
05/23/2007 E1.00 INCH MONTGOMERY IA LAW ENFORCEMENT

MILLER

KMPX [232015]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KMPX 232015
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
315 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0210 PM TSTM WND DMG PLYMOUTH 45.02N 93.46W
05/23/2007 HENNEPIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

SEMI TRAILOR TIPPED OVER IN PLYMOUTH AT HIGHWAY 55 AND
494. SPOTTER SAID HE WITNESSED A DOWNBURST.

0210 PM HAIL PLYMOUTH 45.02N 93.46W
05/23/2007 E0.88 INCH HENNEPIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0210 PM TSTM WND DMG PLYMOUTH 45.02N 93.46W
05/23/2007 HENNEPIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

DAMAGE TO ROOF OF COMMERCIAL BUILDING ON BOONE AVE N.
TREES IN NEARBY VICINITY UP TO ONE FOOT DIAMETER WERE
DOWNED OR BLOW OVER. TIME WAS ESIMATED.

0215 PM HAIL CRYSTAL 45.04N 93.36W
05/23/2007 E2.00 INCH HENNEPIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

MAINLY 1 TO 1.5 INCH STONES. BIGGEST HAIL EGG SIZED.

0225 PM HAIL BROOKLYN PARK 45.11N 93.35W
05/23/2007 E1.75 INCH HENNEPIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0225 PM TSTM WND DMG BROOKLYN PARK 45.11N 93.35W
05/23/2007 HENNEPIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

TREE LIMBS DOWN

0226 PM HAIL BROOKLYN PARK 45.11N 93.35W
05/23/2007 E2.50 INCH HENNEPIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0230 PM HAIL CRYSTAL 45.04N 93.36W
05/23/2007 E1.75 INCH HENNEPIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

NEAR CRYSTAL AIRPORT

0230 PM HAIL BROOKLYN PARK 45.11N 93.35W
05/23/2007 E0.88 INCH HENNEPIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

NEAR ZANE AND CO RD 30

0236 PM HAIL SPRING LAKE PARK 45.12N 93.25W
05/23/2007 E1.00 INCH ANOKA MN TRAINED SPOTTER

RJN

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0868

ACUS11 KWNS 232011
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232011
MOZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-232145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0868
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0311 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SWRN IA...EXTREME SERN NEB...NERN-SCNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 290...

VALID 232011Z - 232145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 290
CONTINUES.

PERSISTENT SWLY LLJ...TIED TO THE JETLET ROTATING NWD INTO THE NRN
PLAINS ATTM...CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BAND OF TSTMS ACROSS WS290 AT
MID-AFTN. 18Z TOP SOUNDING SAMPLED 7.1 DEG C PER KM H7-H5 LAPSE
RATES WHICH SUPPORTS THE SPORADIC LARGE HAIL BEING OBSERVED SO FAR
THIS AFTN. RADAR SUGGESTS THAT COLD POOLS WERE BECOMING STRONGER
AND TSTMS MAY BEGIN TO BECOME FAVORABLY ALIGNED FOR FORWARD
PROPAGATION/BOW ECHOES WITH AN ADDED RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

FARTHER S...LLJ WAS BEGINNING TO BACK TO MORE SLY OWING TO APPROACH
OF THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. COUPLED WITH THE
MOST UNSTABLE RESERVOIR OF INSTABILITY UPSTREAM...
BACKBUILDING/TRAINING TSTMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING FROM NEAR/W OF KP28
NEWD TO MIDWAY BETWEEN KSLN-KEWK. THIS REGION HAS EXPERIENCED
SEVERAL HOURS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTN AND AT LEAST A FEW
MORE HOURS OF TRAINING TSTMS ARE EXPECTED. AXIS OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL MAY EVENTUALLY SHIFT NWWD WITH TIME DURING THE EVENING AS
THE UPR TROUGH APPROACHES.

.RACY.. 05/23/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...DDC...

38839877 39259726 40039637 40809567 40919514 40409504
39819547 38899634 38509697 37499786 37139864 37119928
37839868

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 292

WWUS20 KWNS 232009
SEL2
SPC WW 232009
IAZ000-240200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 292
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
315 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL IOWA

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 315 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MASON CITY IOWA TO 25 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF LAMONI IOWA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 290...WW 291...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
ACROSS CENTRAL IA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALONG AND AHEAD OF
SURFACE BOUNDARY. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND RATHER STRONG WINDS
ALOFT WILL HELP ORGANIZE STORMS WITH A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25035.

..HART

KFSD [232010]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFSD 232010
LSRFSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
310 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0240 PM HAIL 1 W TRUESDALE 42.73N 95.20W
05/23/2007 E1.00 INCH BUENA VISTA IA PUBLIC

NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL FELL BETWEEN 240-245 PM CDT.

JLAFLIN

KICT [232009]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 232009
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
309 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0308 PM HAIL 2 NW ROXBURY 38.57N 97.45W
05/23/2007 E3.00 INCH MCPHERSON KS PUBLIC

3.5 INCH DIAMETER HAIL.

CWH

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 232007
SWODY1
SPC AC 232005

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0305 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

VALID 232000Z - 241200Z

..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN KS...NW OK
AND THE TX PANHANDLE...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

..SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS EVIDENT ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE EWD TOWARD THE SRN
PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. 19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM NEAR TOPEKA KS EXTENDING SWWD TO NEAR GAGE OK.
A CAPPING INVERSION HAS WEAKENED ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND THE
CONVECTIVE LINE WILL LIKELY BECOME UNIFORM OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS BY
EARLY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ALSO INITIATE IN THE TX
PANHANDLE AND IN WRN OK AS THE CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG INSTABILITY...INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CREATE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AND
SHEAR PROFILES FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MODERATE RISK AREA.

LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD MID-LEVEL JET LOCATED FROM
NRN NM EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS SE CO AND WRN KS. THIS BAND OF STRONG
MID-LEVEL FLOW IS CREATING 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 40 TO 50 KT
RANGE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS SHOWN ON REGIONAL PROFILERS.
THIS COMBINED WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. THE SUPERCELL THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE WHERE INITIATION WILL BE LATER AND STORM
COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
INCREASES THROUGH EARLY EVENING...A FEW TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. AN ENHANCED
TORNADO THEAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN TX PANHANDLE...NW OK AND SW
KS EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. A FEW
SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN KS. OTHERWISE...A
MULTICELL THREAT WILL EXIST FURTHER NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS CNTRL KS...NE KS AND SW IA WHERE AN LINEAR MCS IS DEVELOPING
ATTM. FRONTAL FORCING AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC
ARE LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LINEAR MCS. LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
CELLS IN THE LINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.

..UPPER MIDWEST...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER WRN ND WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT
IS LOCATED ACROSS WRN MN AND WRN IA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING
EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS WRN IA...SERN MN AND NW WI. THIS
ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF AN AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AN A REGION OF
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. FOR THIS REASON...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MCS DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

IN ADDITION...A MID-LEVEL JET WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS
WITH THE EDGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW LOCATED OVER CNTRL MN AND
NW IA. AS A RESULT...MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE PRESENT
MAINLY FROM THE FRONT NWWD. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN
ISOLATED SUPERCELL THREAT ESPECIALLY IN THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...THE MAIN THREATS SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE.

.BROYLES.. 05/23/2007

KICT [232001]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 232001
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
301 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0258 PM HAIL 6 N MCPHERSON 38.46N 97.66W
05/23/2007 E1.00 INCH MCPHERSON KS TRAINED SPOTTER

CDJ

WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 291

WWUS20 KWNS 231958
SEL1
SPC WW 231958
IAZ000-MNZ000-WIZ000-240200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 291
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
300 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHEAST IOWA
EASTERN MINNESOTA
WESTERN WISCONSIN

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 300 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF KENNEDY WISCONSIN TO 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
ROCHESTER MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 290...

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY ALONG
SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN MN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS PASS THROUGH LOW LEVEL THETA-E
AXIS.

..HART

KOAX [231951]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 231951
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
251 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0243 PM HAIL 4 SW SIDNEY 40.71N 95.70W
05/23/2007 E0.75 INCH FREMONT IA TRAINED SPOTTER

DNIETFEL

KICT [231948]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 231948
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
248 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0246 PM HAIL 9 NNE MCPHERSON 38.49N 97.60W
05/23/2007 E1.00 INCH MCPHERSON KS TRAINED SPOTTER

LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN WITH ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS AROUND 60
MPH.

CDJ

KICT [231940]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 231940
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
240 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0240 PM HAIL 6 NNW INMAN 38.31N 97.82W
05/23/2007 E0.50 INCH MCPHERSON KS PUBLIC

CWH

KMPX [231934]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 231934
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
234 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0230 PM HAIL CRYSTAL 45.04N 93.36W
05/23/2007 E1.75 INCH HENNEPIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

NEAR CRYSTAL AIRPORT

RJN

KMPX [231926]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 231926
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
226 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0226 PM HAIL BROOKLYN PARK 45.11N 93.35W
05/23/2007 E2.50 INCH HENNEPIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

RJN

KMPX [231922]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 231922
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
222 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0210 PM TSTM WND DMG PLYMOUTH 45.02N 93.46W
05/23/2007 HENNEPIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

SEMI TRAILOR TIPPED OVER IN PLYMOUTH AT HIGHWAY 55 AND
494. SPOTTER SAID HE WITNESSED A DOWNBURST.

0210 PM HAIL PLYMOUTH 45.02N 93.46W
05/23/2007 E0.88 INCH HENNEPIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

RJN

KICT [231922]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 231922
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
222 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0222 PM HAIL CUNNINGHAM 37.64N 98.43W
05/23/2007 E1.00 INCH KINGMAN KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

CWH

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0867

ACUS11 KWNS 231920
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231920
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-232015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0867
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PNHDLS...EXTREME WRN OK...SWRN KS...NERN NM
AND EXTREME SERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 231920Z - 232015Z

A DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD WAS ACCOMPANYING A WWD SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SWRN KS...THE TX/OK PNHDLS AND WRN OK. 18Z
AMA/DDC SOUNDINGS WERE STILL CAPPED...BUT STRONG HEATING...UPSLOPE
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
CAPROCK/RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES WERE BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. LARGER SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WERE STILL
UPSTREAM OVER NRN NM/SCNTRL CO...BUT WILL SPREAD EWD ATOP THE
RETURNING MOISTURE LATER THIS AFTN. UNTIL THEN...THE AFOREMENTIONED
POSITIVES MAY ALONE BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLD STORM
INITIATION ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN TX PNHDL AND EXTREME WRN OK...WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE OVER ALL OF
THE PNHDLS...SERN CO...NERN NM AND SWRN KS.

GENTLY BACKING LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BOOST VERTICAL SHEAR
VALUES THROUGH THE AFTN. VERY STRONG INSTABILITY AND THE INCREASING
SHEAR WILL BE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL
AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES OVER THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA. THREATS FOR
ISOLD STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS SWRN KS SWD INTO PARTS
OF THE CNTRL/ERN TX/OK PNHDLS WHERE MID-60S SFC DEW POINTS WILL
SURGE NWD ALONG/E OF THE CAPROCK AND NE-SW ORIENTED BOUNDARY INTO
SWRN KS 22-03Z.

.RACY.. 05/23/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

38039962 36729958 36109928 35609971 34949998 34410046
34300130 34320219 35460364 37620372 37800351 38610194
38730037

KDDC [231917]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KDDC 231917
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
216 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0736 PM HAIL 5 W WAKEENEY 39.02N 99.97W
05/22/2007 E0.75 INCH TREGO KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

0743 PM HAIL 5 W WAKEENEY 39.02N 99.97W
05/22/2007 E1.25 INCH TREGO KS PUBLIC

0746 PM HAIL 7 N WAKEENEY 39.12N 99.88W
05/22/2007 E1.00 INCH TREGO KS PUBLIC

0747 PM HAIL 3 N WAKEENEY 39.07N 99.88W
05/22/2007 E1.00 INCH TREGO KS STORM CHASER

0817 PM HAIL 1 S WAKEENEY 39.01N 99.88W
05/22/2007 E1.00 INCH TREGO KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

0818 PM TORNADO 6 NE WAKEENEY 39.08N 99.80W
05/22/2007 TREGO KS TRAINED SPOTTER

BRIEF TOUCHDOWN A FIELD TO THE EAST OF HIGHWAY 283...THE
SPOTTER WAS OBSERVING FROM THE WEST ALONG THE HIGHWAY.

0823 PM HAIL 4 ESE WAKEENEY 39.00N 99.81W
05/22/2007 E1.50 INCH TREGO KS STORM CHASER

ALONG I-70 AT MILE MARKER 132

0903 PM HAIL WAKEENEY 39.02N 99.88W
05/22/2007 E1.25 INCH TREGO KS TRAINED SPOTTER

ALSO, STRONG WINDS.

0905 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 S WAKEENEY 38.94N 99.88W
05/22/2007 TREGO KS EMERGENCY MNGR

STRONG WINDS KNOCKED OVER A HAY SHED.

0905 PM HAIL 6 S WAKEENEY 38.94N 99.88W
05/22/2007 E1.00 INCH TREGO KS EMERGENCY MNGR

0905 PM HAIL 11 N ELLIS 39.10N 99.56W
05/22/2007 E0.88 INCH ELLIS KS PUBLIC

0925 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 SSE WAKEENEY 38.94N 99.84W
05/22/2007 TREGO KS AMATEUR RADIO

MOBILE HOME MOVED OFF FOUNDATION AND FARM SHED
FLATTENED...POSSIBLY BY BRIEF TORNADO.

0943 PM HAIL 1 N ELLIS 38.95N 99.56W
05/22/2007 E1.75 INCH ELLIS KS CO-OP OBSERVER

ALSO TORRENTIAL RAIN.

0945 PM HAIL ELLIS 38.94N 99.56W
05/22/2007 M2.50 INCH ELLIS KS BROADCAST MEDIA

HAIL STONES MEASURED 2.25 INCHES IN DIAMETER.

0955 PM HAIL 1 N CEDAR BLUFF 38.79N 99.73W
05/22/2007 E0.88 INCH TREGO KS CO-OP OBSERVER

NORTH EDGE OF CEDAR BLUFF DAM.

1005 PM HAIL 13 SSE OGALLAH 38.81N 99.64W
05/22/2007 E2.00 INCH TREGO KS PUBLIC

1030 PM TSTM WND GST HAYS 38.88N 99.32W
05/22/2007 E80.00 MPH ELLIS KS PUBLIC

NUMEROUS DEBRIS BLOWN AROUND NEAR I-70

1030 PM TSTM WND DMG HAYS 38.88N 99.32W
05/22/2007 ELLIS KS NWS EMPLOYEE

REPORTED DAMAGE TO THE COMFORT INN ROOF IN HAYS ON NORTH
SIDE OF TOWN NEAR I-70.

1032 PM HEAVY RAIN HAYS 38.88N 99.32W
05/22/2007 M2.50 INCH ELLIS KS BROADCAST MEDIA

2.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN LESS THAN 1 HOUR.

1040 PM TSTM WND GST HAYS 38.88N 99.32W
05/22/2007 E60.00 MPH ELLIS KS EMERGENCY MNGR

ELLIS COUNTY EOC REPORTED IN HAYS

1040 PM HAIL HAYS 38.88N 99.32W
05/22/2007 E1.00 INCH ELLIS KS EMERGENCY MNGR

ELLIS COUNTY EOC REPORTED IN TOWN

1055 PM HAIL LIEBENTHAL 38.65N 99.32W
05/22/2007 E1.75 INCH RUSH KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

1115 PM HAIL 3 E SCHOENCHEN 38.71N 99.27W
05/22/2007 E1.00 INCH ELLIS KS PUBLIC

1120 PM HAIL LA CROSSE 38.53N 99.31W
05/22/2007 E1.00 INCH RUSH KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

1125 PM HAIL 3 NW BISON 38.55N 99.24W
05/22/2007 E2.00 INCH RUSH KS CO-OP OBSERVER

2.00 INCH HAIL REPORTED WITH ESTIMATED TIME OF 1125PM
CDT.

1125 PM HAIL 3 NW BISON 38.55N 99.24W
05/22/2007 E2.00 INCH RUSH KS CO-OP OBSERVER

1201 AM TSTM WND GST 6 NW LARNED 38.24N 99.18W
05/23/2007 E60.00 MPH PAWNEE KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

1201 AM HAIL 6 NW LARNED 38.24N 99.18W
05/23/2007 E1.00 INCH PAWNEE KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

1210 AM HAIL 6 NNW LARNED 38.26N 99.14W
05/23/2007 E1.00 INCH PAWNEE KS CO-OP OBSERVER

1215 AM HAIL 3 W LARNED 38.18N 99.16W
05/23/2007 E1.00 INCH PAWNEE KS PUBLIC

1223 AM FLOOD LARNED 38.18N 99.10W
05/23/2007 PAWNEE KS EMERGENCY MNGR

STREETS FLOODED AND SEVERAL CARS STRANDED. MEASURED 3.03
INCHES OF RAINFALL IN 1HR 15MIN. VERY HARD RAIN.

1235 AM HAIL 2 NNE LARNED 38.21N 99.09W
05/23/2007 E1.75 INCH PAWNEE KS PUBLIC

1245 AM HAIL 6 NE LARNED 38.24N 99.02W
05/23/2007 E1.00 INCH PAWNEE KS PUBLIC

KDDC [231916]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 231916
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
216 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1005 PM HAIL 13 SSE OGALLAH 38.81N 99.64W
05/22/2007 E2.00 INCH TREGO KS PUBLIC

1115 PM HAIL 3 E SCHOENCHEN 38.71N 99.27W
05/22/2007 E1.00 INCH ELLIS KS PUBLIC

1235 AM HAIL 2 NNE LARNED 38.21N 99.09W
05/23/2007 E1.75 INCH PAWNEE KS PUBLIC

1245 AM HAIL 6 NE LARNED 38.24N 99.02W
05/23/2007 E1.00 INCH PAWNEE KS PUBLIC

KTOP [231900]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 231900
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
200 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0155 PM HAIL 2 W RILEY 39.30N 96.87W
05/23/2007 M1.00 INCH RILEY KS TRAINED SPOTTER

KTOP [231842]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 231842
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
142 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0135 PM HAIL E WAKEFIELD 39.21N 97.01W
05/23/2007 E0.88 INCH CLAY KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

NICKEL AND DIME SIZE HAIL. OFFICERS LOCATED NEAR SOUTH
TIMBER CREEK...JUST EAST OF WAKEFIELD. SMALL CREEKS AND
STREAMS ALSO REPORTED TO BE RUNNING NEAR BANKFULL.

WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 290

WWUS20 KWNS 231824
SEL0
SPC WW 231824
IAZ000-KSZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-240100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 290
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
125 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST IOWA
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS
NORTHWEST MISSOURI
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 125 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF MEDICINE LODGE KANSAS TO 30 MILES EAST OF SHENANDOAH
IOWA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

DISCUSSION...LINE OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS IS INCREASING FROM WEST
OF ICT TO SOUTH OF OMA. DESPITE RATHER WEAK FORCING...SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY
MAY SPREAD AS FAR NORTHEAST AS SOUTHWEST IA AND NORTHWEST MO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25030.

..HART

KICT [231815]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 231815
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
115 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0113 PM HAIL PLEVNA 37.97N 98.31W
05/23/2007 E1.50 INCH RENO KS TRAINED SPOTTER

CWH

KTOP [231814]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 231814
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
114 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0103 PM HAIL 9 SW WAKEFIELD 39.12N 97.12W
05/23/2007 E1.00 INCH DICKINSON KS TRAINED SPOTTER

0105 PM HAIL 4 SW WAKEFIELD 39.17N 97.06W
05/23/2007 E0.88 INCH CLAY KS TRAINED SPOTTER

KICT [231741]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 231741
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1240 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1227 PM HAIL 2 N PLEVNA 38.00N 98.31W
05/23/2007 E0.75 INCH RENO KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

CWH

KMPX [231739]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 231739
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1239 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1155 AM HAIL NEW ULM 44.31N 94.46W
05/23/2007 M0.75 INCH BROWN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

DWE

KICT [231731]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 231731
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1231 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1217 PM HAIL 2 W ASSARIA 38.68N 97.64W
05/23/2007 E1.75 INCH SALINE KS STORM CHASER

CWH

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 231731
SWODY2
SPC AC 231729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST...

..UPPER MIDWEST...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SRN CANADA WILL LIFT NWD TONIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY. AT
THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM CNTRL WI EXTENDING SSWWD INTO ERN IA BY
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
COLD FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MODEL FORECASTS MOVE AN 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH QUICKLY NNEWD FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO WI BY
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...A BROAD ZONE OF STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL EXIST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
SHEAR SHOULD BE QUITE ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...QUESTIONS REMAIN CONCERNING DESTABILIZATION. CLOUD COVER
FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS CONVECTION COULD LIMIT INSTABILITY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. IN ADDITION...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY STEEP THURSDAY WHICH COULD BE
PROBLEMATIC. IF POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP...THE
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH
HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. IF A LINEAR MCS QUICKLY
ORGANIZES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...THEN THE PREFERRED STORM MODE
WOULD BE MULTICELL. IF A LINEAR MCS DEVELOPS...THE VERY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES MAY RESULT
IN WIND DAMAGE AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING DUE TO THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND
DECREASING LIFT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL JET MOVE
NNEWD AWAY FROM THE REGION.

..SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS....
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS
WILL MOVE NEWD AWAY FROM THE PLAINS REGION ON THURSDAY. AT THE
SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS ERN KS...CNTRL OK AND WEST
TX. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BE THE FOCUS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH...AREAS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FORECASTS SOUNDINGS
SHOW RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF 20
TO 30 KT. THIS SUGGESTS...THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED STORM SHOULD
REMAIN LOCALIZED. IF VERTICAL SHEAR IS STRONGER THAN FORECAST ACROSS
PARTS OF THE WARM SECTOR...THEN A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SEVERE COULD
DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK ACROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION MAY BE NECESSARY ONCE CERTAINTY INCREASES
CONCERNING THE LOCATION OF MAXIMUMS IN INSTABILITY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE. ANY SEVERE THREAT THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MARGINAL
AND CONCENTRATED NEAR PEAK HEATING.

.BROYLES.. 05/23/2007

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0866

ACUS11 KWNS 231730
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231730
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-232000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0866
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN...NRN/CENTRAL IA...SERN/SCENTRAL MN AND
SWRN/WCENTRAL WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231730Z - 232000Z

SCT TO NMRS TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR OMA NEWD TO JUST WEST OF THE TWIN CITIES
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AHEAD OF A MCV OVER NERN IA WHILE MOVING INTO WCENTRAL/SWRN WI.
TSTMS IN BOTH AREAS MAY STRENGTHEN SUFFICIENTLY THAT AN ISOLATED
SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.

RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AREAS OF MOSTLY
CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL/NCENTRAL IA.
THIS AREA OF CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEWD INTO
SCENTRAL/SERN MN. WITH HEATING AND CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION...
MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH MLCAPE VALUES FROM
1000-1500 J/KG ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM CENTRAL IA INTO
SCENTRAL MN. GIVEN MODERATE MID LEVEL WINDS /40-50 KTS AT SLATER IA
AND WOOD LAKE MN/...SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT TO
SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND SVR THREAT WITH THE
STRONGEST TSTMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FURTHER EAST...VISIBLE SAT
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF AN MVC OVER NCENTRAL IA. TSTMS HAVE
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THIS MVC OVER NERN IA AND WCENTRAL WI /POSSIBLY
AIDED BY A MODERATE LOW LEVEL JET/. GIVEN THE RECENT SPEED OF THESE
CELLS...ACTIVITY IS LIKELY NOT SURFACE BASED. HOWEVER SUFFICIENT
HEATING MAY OCCUR OVER WRN WI TO SUPPORT THIS ACTIVITY BECOMING
SURFACE BASED WITHIN A FEW HOURS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
DMGG WINDS/SVR HAIL GIVEN SIMILAR MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR IN PLACE
IN THIS AREA.

.CROSBIE.. 05/23/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

45619177 45229331 44579424 44389436 43609492 43049529
42449540 42099568 41609577 41329491 41279271 42539149
43689021 44328983 45209011

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0865

ACUS11 KWNS 231723
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231722
NEZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-231845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0865
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...NCNTRL THROUGH SCNTRL KS AND EXTREME
NWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231722Z - 231845Z

WEAK FRONT THAT HAS SETTLED SEWD HAS ESSENTIALLY STALLED FROM NEAR
KOMA SWWD THROUGH PRATT KS THEN SWWD INTO EXTREME NWRN OK AND THE
CNTRL TX PNHDL. TSTMS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING ALONG THE KS
PORTION OF THIS FRONT AND WILL LIKELY EXPAND NEWD INTO ERN NEB LATER
AND POSSIBLY INTO EXTREME NWRN OK THROUGH THE AFTN. THIS REGION
RESIDES BENEATH ENTRANCE REGION OF 60-70 KT H5 JET MOVING INTO THE
NRN PLAINS AND WITHIN THE AXIS OF THE SWLY LLJ. GRADUAL HEATING AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN STRONGER UPDRAFTS WITH TIME
THROUGH THE AFTN. THOUGH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN
MINIMAL...PARTICULARLY THROUGH MID-AFTN FROM NRN KS NWD...SPEED
SHEAR WAS MODEST AND ISOLD CELLS MAY ROTATE GIVING LARGE
HAIL/POSSIBLE HIGH WINDS.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE RISK SHOULD DEVELOP UPSTREAM OVER SWRN KS
INTO THE TX/OK PNHDLS REGIONS LATER THIS AFTN/EVE AS A RAPID
RECOVERY TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF THE STRONGER SRN ROCKIES IMPULSE. A
SEPARATE DISCUSSION WILL FOLLOW LATER HIGHLIGHTING THIS REGION AS
NEW UPR AIR DATA ARRIVES.

.RACY.. 05/23/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...

41039688 40419569 39679575 38769686 37849782 36829877
36659918 37189934 37969875 39019817 40209735

KLCH [231720]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 231720
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1220 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1219 PM HAIL KAPLAN 30.00N 92.28W
05/23/2007 M0.88 INCH VERMILION LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

MOGGED

KICT [231657]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 231657
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1157 AM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1140 AM HAIL N MARQUETTE 38.56N 97.83W
05/23/2007 E0.25 INCH MCPHERSON KS TRAINED SPOTTER

RHE

KLCH [231637]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 231637
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1136 AM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 27 SW BURNS POINT 29.33N 91.88W
05/23/2007 M40 MPH GMZ455 LA PUBLIC

OCCURRED ON PLATFORM IN SOUTH MARSH ISLAND BLOCK 236.
RELAYED BY PLATFORM IN SOUTH MARSH ISLAND BLOCK 239

MOGGED

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 231632
SWODY1
SPC AC 231630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN TX
PANHANDLE...NORTHWEST OK...AND SOUTHWEST KS...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NORTHEAST NM INTO WESTERN
IA...

LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS PRESENT THIS MORNING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING EASTWARD OVER SOUTHEAST UT. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN CO THIS AFTERNOON AND BEGIN AFFECTING THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING
ROUGHLY FROM P28-GAG-PVW. COMBINATION OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
AND STRONG HEATING ACROSS TX/OK PANHANDLES WILL RESULT IN RAPID
RETREAT OF BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY 00Z...WEST EDGE
OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM NORTH CENTRAL
TX PANHANDLE NORTHWARD. THIS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR A REGIONAL
OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING FROM THE TX PANHANDLE
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS...WITH A RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
STRONG TORNADOES.

..CO...
STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN
CO AND INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES BELOW 500 J/KG/.
HOWEVER...RATHER COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AS IT SPREADS EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CO AND INTO THE WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES.

..TX/OK/KS...
OPERATIONAL AND EXPERIMENTAL MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY
AGREE THAT VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL RETURN NORTHWESTWARD
INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND SOUTHWEST KS BY EARLY EVENING.
SUFFICIENT CAP WILL SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION UNTIL AFTER 21Z...WHEN
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE. AREAL COVERAGE
OF STORMS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY GREAT.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW IMPRESSIVE
HODOGRAPHS /EFFECTIVE HELICITY VALUES OVER 250 M2/S2 AND EFFECTIVE
SHEAR OF 35-50 KNOTS/ FAVORABLE FOR RAPID SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.
ANY STORM THAT CAN ANCHOR ALONG RETREATING BOUNDARY WILL ALSO BE IN
ENVIRONMENT OF LOW LCLS AND ENHANCED CONVERGENCE/VORTICITY. STRONG
TORNADOES ARE CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY WITH STORMS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER DARK
AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.

..KS/NEB/IA...
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST NEB INTO CENTRAL KS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOW RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY...DESPITE RATHER WEAK LARGE
SCALE SUPPORT. LATER TONIGHT...MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD REGION FROM THE WEST...WITH PERHAPS A GREATER
THREAT OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.HART/CROSBIE.. 05/23/2007

KLCH [231626]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 231626
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1126 AM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1122 AM HAIL 1 E ST. MARTINVILLE 30.12N 91.81W
05/23/2007 M1.00 INCH ST. MARTIN LA PUBLIC

MOGGED

KABR [231602]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KABR 231602
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1101 AM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0325 PM HAIL 1 W STEPHAN 44.25N 99.47W
05/22/2007 M0.88 INCH HYDE SD PUBLIC

NICKEL SIZE HAIL COVERING HWY 34 1 MILE WEST OF STEPHAN.

0355 PM HAIL 6 NE HIGHMORE 44.58N 99.35W
05/22/2007 E0.88 INCH HYDE SD PUBLIC

0515 PM HAIL 5 S BRENTFORD 45.09N 98.32W
05/22/2007 M0.75 INCH SPINK SD EMERGENCY MNGR

KLCH [231548]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 231548
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1048 AM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1030 AM DOWNBURST CATAHOULA 30.21N 91.71W
05/23/2007 ST. MARTIN LA BROADCAST MEDIA

ROOF DAMAGE TO A HOME AND A MOBILE HOME BLOWN OVER DUE TO
THUNDERSTORM DOWNBURST WIND. REPORTED BY KLFY TV-10.

KFSD [231537]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KFSD 231537
LSRFSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1037 AM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0945 PM FLASH FLOOD 8 S ARMOUR 43.20N 98.34W
05/22/2007 CHARLES MIX SD TRAINED SPOTTER

STANDING WATER IN THE DRIVEWAY AND A LEAK IN THE HOUSE
REPORTED ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND PEA-SIZED HAIL.

1000 PM FLASH FLOOD RAVINIA 43.14N 98.43W
05/22/2007 CHARLES MIX SD LAW ENFORCEMENT

A LOT OF STANDING WATER IN DITCHES ALONG HIGHWAY 281
BETWEEN RAVINIA AND ARMOUR.

1000 PM FLASH FLOOD ARMOUR 43.32N 98.34W
05/22/2007 DOUGLAS SD LAW ENFORCEMENT

A LOT OF STANDING WATER IN DITCHES ALONG HIGHWAY 281
BETWEEN RAVINIA AND ARMOUR.

1025 PM FLASH FLOOD MITCHELL 43.73N 98.03W
05/22/2007 DAVISON SD PUBLIC

STANDING WATER IN THE STREETS IN MITCHELL.

1240 AM TSTM WND DMG GARRETSON 43.72N 96.50W
05/23/2007 MINNEHAHA SD PUBLIC

TREE BRANCHES UP TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER DOWNED DUE TO
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THUNDERSTORM MOVED THROUGH

1245 AM TSTM WND DMG 4 SSW JASPER 43.80N 96.43W
05/23/2007 ROCK MN PUBLIC

SMALL TREE BRANCHES DOWN 1 INCH AND LESS IN DIAMETER.
YOUNG TREES WERE REPORTED TO HAVE BENT OVER TO GROUND AS
THUNDERSTORM MOVED THROUGH. PERSON REPORTING CONSIDERED
SEEKING SHELTER.

DMORIN

KFSD [231536]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFSD 231536
LSRFSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1036 AM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1245 AM TSTM WND DMG 4 SSW JASPER 43.80N 96.43W
05/23/2007 ROCK MN PUBLIC

SMALL TREE BRANCHES DOWN 1 INCH AND LESS IN DIAMETER.
YOUNG TREES WERE REPORTED TO HAVE BENT OVER TO GROUND AS
THUNDERSTORM MOVED THROUGH. PERSON REPORTING CONSIDERED
SEEKING SHELTER.

DMORIN

KDMX [231524]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...correction

NWUS53 KDMX 231524 CCA
LSRDMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1014 AM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1002 AM HAIL NEWTON 41.70N 93.05W
05/23/2007 E1.00 INCH JASPER IA BROADCAST MEDIA

FROM KCCI TV

JJOHNSON

KDMX [231515]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDMX 231515
LSRDMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1014 AM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1005 AM HAIL NEWTON 41.70N 93.05W
05/23/2007 E1.00 INCH JASPER IA BROADCAST MEDIA

FROM KCCI TV

JJOHNSON

KFSD [231452]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KFSD 231452
LSRFSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
952 AM CDT WED MAY 23 2007