MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0867

ACUS11 KWNS 231920
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231920
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-232015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0867
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PNHDLS...EXTREME WRN OK...SWRN KS...NERN NM
AND EXTREME SERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 231920Z - 232015Z

A DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD WAS ACCOMPANYING A WWD SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SWRN KS...THE TX/OK PNHDLS AND WRN OK. 18Z
AMA/DDC SOUNDINGS WERE STILL CAPPED...BUT STRONG HEATING...UPSLOPE
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
CAPROCK/RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES WERE BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. LARGER SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WERE STILL
UPSTREAM OVER NRN NM/SCNTRL CO...BUT WILL SPREAD EWD ATOP THE
RETURNING MOISTURE LATER THIS AFTN. UNTIL THEN...THE AFOREMENTIONED
POSITIVES MAY ALONE BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLD STORM
INITIATION ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN TX PNHDL AND EXTREME WRN OK...WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE OVER ALL OF
THE PNHDLS...SERN CO...NERN NM AND SWRN KS.

GENTLY BACKING LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BOOST VERTICAL SHEAR
VALUES THROUGH THE AFTN. VERY STRONG INSTABILITY AND THE INCREASING
SHEAR WILL BE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL
AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES OVER THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA. THREATS FOR
ISOLD STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS SWRN KS SWD INTO PARTS
OF THE CNTRL/ERN TX/OK PNHDLS WHERE MID-60S SFC DEW POINTS WILL
SURGE NWD ALONG/E OF THE CAPROCK AND NE-SW ORIENTED BOUNDARY INTO
SWRN KS 22-03Z.

.RACY.. 05/23/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

38039962 36729958 36109928 35609971 34949998 34410046
34300130 34320219 35460364 37620372 37800351 38610194
38730037

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