NWUS55 KBOU 182242
LSRBOU
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
442 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0441 PM HAIL OTIS 40.15N 102.96W
05/18/2013 M1.00 INCH WASHINGTON CO TRAINED SPOTTER
0420 PM HAIL 7 SSE AKRON 40.08N 103.14W
05/18/2013 M0.88 INCH WASHINGTON CO TRAINED SPOTTER
0351 PM HAIL 9 W PEETZ 40.96N 103.29W
05/18/2013 M0.88 INCH LOGAN CO TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
KFREDIN
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Saturday, May 18, 2013
KCYS [182238]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KCYS 182238
LSRCYS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
438 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0434 PM HAIL 12 NW SIDNEY 41.26N 103.13W
05/18/2013 E1.00 INCH CHEYENNE NE TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
GCLAYCOM
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LSRCYS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
438 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0434 PM HAIL 12 NW SIDNEY 41.26N 103.13W
05/18/2013 E1.00 INCH CHEYENNE NE TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
GCLAYCOM
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KGLD [182238]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KGLD 182238
LSRGLD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
438 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0437 PM HAIL JENNINGS 39.68N 100.29W
05/18/2013 E1.75 INCH DECATUR KS PUBLIC
ESTIMATED GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL IN JENNINGS, KS.
&&
$$
ALW
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LSRGLD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
438 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0437 PM HAIL JENNINGS 39.68N 100.29W
05/18/2013 E1.75 INCH DECATUR KS PUBLIC
ESTIMATED GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL IN JENNINGS, KS.
&&
$$
ALW
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KDDC [182235]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KDDC 182235
LSRDDC
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
535 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0530 PM HAIL 8 S TREGO CENTER 38.77N 99.89W
05/18/2013 E1.00 INCH TREGO KS TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
WHOVORKA
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LSRDDC
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
535 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0530 PM HAIL 8 S TREGO CENTER 38.77N 99.89W
05/18/2013 E1.00 INCH TREGO KS TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
WHOVORKA
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KGLD [182235]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KGLD 182235
LSRGLD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
435 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0434 PM HAIL SELDEN 39.54N 100.57W
05/18/2013 E1.00 INCH SHERIDAN KS NWS EMPLOYEE
ESTIMATED QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN SELDEN.
&&
$$
ALW
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LSRGLD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
435 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0434 PM HAIL SELDEN 39.54N 100.57W
05/18/2013 E1.00 INCH SHERIDAN KS NWS EMPLOYEE
ESTIMATED QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN SELDEN.
&&
$$
ALW
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KCYS [182234]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KCYS 182234
LSRCYS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
434 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0432 PM HAIL BROWNSON 41.17N 103.08W
05/18/2013 E1.00 INCH CHEYENNE NE PUBLIC
SEVERAL REPORTS OF QUARTER SIZED HAIL IN BROWNSON.
RELAYED VIA SIDNEY WARNING POINT.
&&
$$
GCLAYCOM
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LSRCYS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
434 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0432 PM HAIL BROWNSON 41.17N 103.08W
05/18/2013 E1.00 INCH CHEYENNE NE PUBLIC
SEVERAL REPORTS OF QUARTER SIZED HAIL IN BROWNSON.
RELAYED VIA SIDNEY WARNING POINT.
&&
$$
GCLAYCOM
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KOUN [182230]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KOUN 182230
LSROUN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
530 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0527 PM HAIL MCQUEEN 34.67N 99.70W
05/18/2013 E1.25 INCH HARMON OK LAW ENFORCEMENT
&&
$$
EM
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LSROUN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
530 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0527 PM HAIL MCQUEEN 34.67N 99.70W
05/18/2013 E1.25 INCH HARMON OK LAW ENFORCEMENT
&&
$$
EM
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KGLD [182226]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KGLD 182226
LSRGLD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
426 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0426 PM HAIL SELDEN 39.54N 100.57W
05/18/2013 E1.25 INCH SHERIDAN KS TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
ALW
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LSRGLD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
426 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0426 PM HAIL SELDEN 39.54N 100.57W
05/18/2013 E1.25 INCH SHERIDAN KS TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
ALW
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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0679
ACUS11 KWNS 182225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182224
NDZ000-SDZ000-182330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0679
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0524 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NORTH DAKOTA...CNTRL AND NORTH CNTRL SOUTH
DAKOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 182224Z - 182330Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ACROSS SRN NORTH DAKOTA...SWD INTO
CNTRL SOUTH DAKOTA. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
DISCUSSION...BROAD ASCENT IS OVERSPREADING PORTIONS OF THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EJECTING NNE
TO THE EAST OF A LARGER-SCALE CYCLONE ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. THIS
ASCENT SHOULD ACT TO WEAKEN CINH ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TSTMS ACROSS SRN NORTH DAKOTA AND CNTRL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THIS AREA IS CHARACTERIZED BY MUCAPE AOA 1000
J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AOA 30 KTS WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG/SVR TSTMS TO THE SW /ACROSS WW172/
MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THIS AREA. AS SUCH A WW MAY BECOME
NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY THREATS.
..MARSH/CORFIDI.. 05/18/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...
LAT...LON 45010111 45920200 45960400 47060397 47530331 47760217
47730086 47629934 46869818 45949798 44659868 43749966
43910108 45010111
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SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182224
NDZ000-SDZ000-182330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0679
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0524 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NORTH DAKOTA...CNTRL AND NORTH CNTRL SOUTH
DAKOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 182224Z - 182330Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ACROSS SRN NORTH DAKOTA...SWD INTO
CNTRL SOUTH DAKOTA. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
DISCUSSION...BROAD ASCENT IS OVERSPREADING PORTIONS OF THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EJECTING NNE
TO THE EAST OF A LARGER-SCALE CYCLONE ACROSS THE WRN CONUS. THIS
ASCENT SHOULD ACT TO WEAKEN CINH ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TSTMS ACROSS SRN NORTH DAKOTA AND CNTRL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THIS AREA IS CHARACTERIZED BY MUCAPE AOA 1000
J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AOA 30 KTS WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG/SVR TSTMS TO THE SW /ACROSS WW172/
MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THIS AREA. AS SUCH A WW MAY BECOME
NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY THREATS.
..MARSH/CORFIDI.. 05/18/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...
LAT...LON 45010111 45920200 45960400 47060397 47530331 47760217
47730086 47629934 46869818 45949798 44659868 43749966
43910108 45010111
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
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KGLD [182224]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KGLD 182224
LSRGLD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
424 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0340 PM HAIL 5 W ATWOOD 39.81N 101.14W
05/18/2013 E1.00 INCH RAWLINS KS LAW ENFORCEMENT
QUARTER SIZED HAIL ABOUT 5 MILES W OF ATWOOD.
&&
$$
ALW
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LSRGLD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
424 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0340 PM HAIL 5 W ATWOOD 39.81N 101.14W
05/18/2013 E1.00 INCH RAWLINS KS LAW ENFORCEMENT
QUARTER SIZED HAIL ABOUT 5 MILES W OF ATWOOD.
&&
$$
ALW
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KUNR [182223]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KUNR 182223
LSRUNR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
423 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0420 PM HAIL 10 NNW ELLSWORTH AFB 44.29N 103.15W
05/18/2013 E1.00 INCH MEADE SD PUBLIC
&&
$$
ME
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LSRUNR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
423 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0420 PM HAIL 10 NNW ELLSWORTH AFB 44.29N 103.15W
05/18/2013 E1.00 INCH MEADE SD PUBLIC
&&
$$
ME
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KBOU [182222]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KBOU 182222
LSRBOU
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
421 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0420 PM HAIL 7 SSE AKRON 40.08N 103.14W
05/18/2013 M0.88 INCH WASHINGTON CO TRAINED SPOTTER
0351 PM HAIL 9 W PEETZ 40.96N 103.29W
05/18/2013 M0.88 INCH LOGAN CO TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
KFREDIN
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LSRBOU
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
421 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0420 PM HAIL 7 SSE AKRON 40.08N 103.14W
05/18/2013 M0.88 INCH WASHINGTON CO TRAINED SPOTTER
0351 PM HAIL 9 W PEETZ 40.96N 103.29W
05/18/2013 M0.88 INCH LOGAN CO TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
KFREDIN
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KLBF [182220]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KLBF 182220
LSRLBF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
520 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0515 PM HAIL 13 E ARTHUR 41.57N 101.44W
05/18/2013 E1.00 INCH ARTHUR NE PUBLIC
STONES RANGED EVERYWHERE FROM PEA TO QUARTER SIZE.
&&
$$
SNIVELY
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LSRLBF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
520 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0515 PM HAIL 13 E ARTHUR 41.57N 101.44W
05/18/2013 E1.00 INCH ARTHUR NE PUBLIC
STONES RANGED EVERYWHERE FROM PEA TO QUARTER SIZE.
&&
$$
SNIVELY
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KCYS [182218]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KCYS 182218
LSRCYS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
418 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0417 PM HAIL 6 W SIDNEY 41.13N 103.09W
05/18/2013 E0.75 INCH CHEYENNE NE TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
GCLAYCOM
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LSRCYS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
418 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0417 PM HAIL 6 W SIDNEY 41.13N 103.09W
05/18/2013 E0.75 INCH CHEYENNE NE TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
GCLAYCOM
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KOUN [182217]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KOUN 182217
LSROUN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
517 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0515 PM HAIL 1 S DILL CITY 35.27N 99.13W
05/18/2013 E1.75 INCH WASHITA OK AMATEUR RADIO
&&
$$
EM
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LSROUN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
517 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0515 PM HAIL 1 S DILL CITY 35.27N 99.13W
05/18/2013 E1.75 INCH WASHITA OK AMATEUR RADIO
&&
$$
EM
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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0678
ACUS11 KWNS 182216
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182215
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-182315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0678
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0515 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NERN CO / WRN-SWRN NE / PORTIONS OF WRN KS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 170...
VALID 182215Z - 182315Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 170 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL PREDOMINATE OVER
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS FROM WRN NE S AND SEWD INTO PORTIONS OF WRN KS.
THE TORNADO THREAT WILL SEEMINGLY INCREASE AROUND 00Z AND
THEREAFTER.
DISCUSSION...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A DRYLINE FROM
THE NE PANHANDLE AND ARCING SEWD TO A DRYLINE BULGE OVER SWRN KS
NEAR DDC. FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ALONG AND IN
AREAS ADJACENTLY E OF THE DRYLINE OVER WRN KS INTO WRN NEB FEATURES
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S --CONTRIBUTING TO SIZABLE
SURFACE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS 20-30 DEG F. UNTIL THESE SPREADS AND
LCL/S BEGIN TO DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR
STRENGTHENS...LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD DMGG WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS.
AS OF 2215Z...WDSS-II SHOWS THE MOST INTENSE SUPERCELLS OVER
NESS/TREGO COUNTIES IN KS. AS THIS SUPERCELL CLUSTER SLOWLY MOVES
TO THE N...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY IMPACT THIS IMMEDIATE
VICINITY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
..SMITH.. 05/18/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 37109963 38370021 39280262 40240346 42660320 42240080
40330221 39199944 37449915 37109963
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SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182215
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-182315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0678
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0515 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NERN CO / WRN-SWRN NE / PORTIONS OF WRN KS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 170...
VALID 182215Z - 182315Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 170 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL PREDOMINATE OVER
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS FROM WRN NE S AND SEWD INTO PORTIONS OF WRN KS.
THE TORNADO THREAT WILL SEEMINGLY INCREASE AROUND 00Z AND
THEREAFTER.
DISCUSSION...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A DRYLINE FROM
THE NE PANHANDLE AND ARCING SEWD TO A DRYLINE BULGE OVER SWRN KS
NEAR DDC. FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ALONG AND IN
AREAS ADJACENTLY E OF THE DRYLINE OVER WRN KS INTO WRN NEB FEATURES
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S --CONTRIBUTING TO SIZABLE
SURFACE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS 20-30 DEG F. UNTIL THESE SPREADS AND
LCL/S BEGIN TO DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR
STRENGTHENS...LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD DMGG WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS.
AS OF 2215Z...WDSS-II SHOWS THE MOST INTENSE SUPERCELLS OVER
NESS/TREGO COUNTIES IN KS. AS THIS SUPERCELL CLUSTER SLOWLY MOVES
TO THE N...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY IMPACT THIS IMMEDIATE
VICINITY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
..SMITH.. 05/18/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 37109963 38370021 39280262 40240346 42660320 42240080
40330221 39199944 37449915 37109963
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
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KOUN [182214]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KOUN 182214
LSROUN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
514 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0511 PM HAIL WARREN 34.78N 99.22W
05/18/2013 E2.50 INCH JACKSON OK FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
GOLFBALL TO TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED.
0445 PM HAIL GOULD 34.67N 99.77W
05/18/2013 E2.50 INCH HARMON OK PUBLIC
RELAYED BY KSWO TV.
&&
$$
EM
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LSROUN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
514 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0511 PM HAIL WARREN 34.78N 99.22W
05/18/2013 E2.50 INCH JACKSON OK FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
GOLFBALL TO TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED.
0445 PM HAIL GOULD 34.67N 99.77W
05/18/2013 E2.50 INCH HARMON OK PUBLIC
RELAYED BY KSWO TV.
&&
$$
EM
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KDDC [182209]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KDDC 182209
LSRDDC
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
509 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0505 PM HAIL 5 ENE ARNOLD 38.66N 99.96W
05/18/2013 E1.75 INCH NESS KS PUBLIC
&&
$$
WHOVORKA
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LSRDDC
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
509 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0505 PM HAIL 5 ENE ARNOLD 38.66N 99.96W
05/18/2013 E1.75 INCH NESS KS PUBLIC
&&
$$
WHOVORKA
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KCYS [182209]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KCYS 182209
LSRCYS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
409 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0408 PM HAIL 14 SSE CRAWFORD 42.50N 103.31W
05/18/2013 E1.00 INCH DAWES NE TRAINED SPOTTER
NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL. HAIL HAS ENDED.
&&
$$
GCLAYCOM
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LSRCYS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
409 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0408 PM HAIL 14 SSE CRAWFORD 42.50N 103.31W
05/18/2013 E1.00 INCH DAWES NE TRAINED SPOTTER
NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL. HAIL HAS ENDED.
&&
$$
GCLAYCOM
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KOUN [182206]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected
NWUS54 KOUN 182206
LSROUN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
506 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0451 PM HAIL WARREN 34.78N 99.22W
05/18/2013 E2.50 INCH JACKSON OK FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
RELAYED BY EM
&&
$$
JPIKE
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LSROUN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
506 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0451 PM HAIL WARREN 34.78N 99.22W
05/18/2013 E2.50 INCH JACKSON OK FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
RELAYED BY EM
&&
$$
JPIKE
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KCYS [182204]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KCYS 182204
LSRCYS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
404 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0403 PM HAIL CRAWFORD 42.69N 103.41W
05/18/2013 E0.75 INCH DAWES NE TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
GCLAYCOM
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LSRCYS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
404 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0403 PM HAIL CRAWFORD 42.69N 103.41W
05/18/2013 E0.75 INCH DAWES NE TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
GCLAYCOM
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KOUN [182201]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KOUN 182201
LSROUN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
501 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0451 PM HAIL WARREN 34.78N 99.22W
05/18/2013 E2.75 INCH JACKSON OK FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
RELAYED BY EM
&&
$$
JPIKE
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LSROUN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
501 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0451 PM HAIL WARREN 34.78N 99.22W
05/18/2013 E2.75 INCH JACKSON OK FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
RELAYED BY EM
&&
$$
JPIKE
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KCYS [182201]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KCYS 182201
LSRCYS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
401 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0400 PM HAIL 14 SSE CRAWFORD 42.50N 103.31W
05/18/2013 E0.75 INCH DAWES NE TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
GCLAYCOM
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LSRCYS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
401 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0400 PM HAIL 14 SSE CRAWFORD 42.50N 103.31W
05/18/2013 E0.75 INCH DAWES NE TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
GCLAYCOM
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KLBF [182200]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KLBF 182200
LSRLBF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
500 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0455 PM HAIL 7 NNE BRULE 41.19N 101.84W
05/18/2013 E1.00 INCH KEITH NE PUBLIC
&&
$$
SNIVELY
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LSRLBF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
500 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0455 PM HAIL 7 NNE BRULE 41.19N 101.84W
05/18/2013 E1.00 INCH KEITH NE PUBLIC
&&
$$
SNIVELY
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KDDC [182158]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KDDC 182158
LSRDDC
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
458 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0445 PM HAIL RANSOM 38.64N 99.93W
05/18/2013 E1.75 INCH NESS KS BROADCAST MEDIA
&&
$$
BURKE
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LSRDDC
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
458 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0445 PM HAIL RANSOM 38.64N 99.93W
05/18/2013 E1.75 INCH NESS KS BROADCAST MEDIA
&&
$$
BURKE
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KUNR [182153]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KUNR 182153
LSRUNR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
353 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0350 PM HAIL 3 NW BLACK HAWK 44.18N 103.36W
05/18/2013 E0.88 INCH MEADE SD FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
&&
$$
ME
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LSRUNR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
353 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0350 PM HAIL 3 NW BLACK HAWK 44.18N 103.36W
05/18/2013 E0.88 INCH MEADE SD FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
&&
$$
ME
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KOUN [182153]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KOUN 182153
LSROUN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
452 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0451 PM HAIL E FRIENDSHIP 34.70N 99.23W
05/18/2013 E2.75 INCH JACKSON OK EMERGENCY MNGR
&&
$$
JPIKE
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LSROUN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
452 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0451 PM HAIL E FRIENDSHIP 34.70N 99.23W
05/18/2013 E2.75 INCH JACKSON OK EMERGENCY MNGR
&&
$$
JPIKE
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KUNR [182151]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KUNR 182151
LSRUNR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
350 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0340 PM HAIL 5 S MUD BUTTE 44.93N 102.88W
05/18/2013 E0.75 INCH MEADE SD PUBLIC
&&
$$
POJORLIE
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LSRUNR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
350 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0340 PM HAIL 5 S MUD BUTTE 44.93N 102.88W
05/18/2013 E0.75 INCH MEADE SD PUBLIC
&&
$$
POJORLIE
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KOUN [182147]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KOUN 182147
LSROUN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
447 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0446 PM HAIL FRIENDSHIP 34.70N 99.23W
05/18/2013 E1.25 INCH JACKSON OK EMERGENCY MNGR
&&
$$
JPIKE
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LSROUN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
447 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0446 PM HAIL FRIENDSHIP 34.70N 99.23W
05/18/2013 E1.25 INCH JACKSON OK EMERGENCY MNGR
&&
$$
JPIKE
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KGLD [182141]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KGLD 182141
LSRGLD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
341 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0340 PM HAIL 9 E COLBY 39.39N 100.88W
05/18/2013 E1.00 INCH THOMAS KS NWS EMPLOYEE
FOUND QUARTER SIZED HAIL IN A DITCH AT INTERSECTION OF US
HIGHWAY 24 AND US 83.
&&
$$
ALW
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LSRGLD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
341 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0340 PM HAIL 9 E COLBY 39.39N 100.88W
05/18/2013 E1.00 INCH THOMAS KS NWS EMPLOYEE
FOUND QUARTER SIZED HAIL IN A DITCH AT INTERSECTION OF US
HIGHWAY 24 AND US 83.
&&
$$
ALW
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KLBF [182141]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KLBF 182141
LSRLBF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
441 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0435 PM HAIL 8 ESE ARTHUR 41.53N 101.55W
05/18/2013 E1.00 INCH ARTHUR NE PUBLIC
MOST STONES WERE PEA TO DIME SIZE AND WERE COVERING THE
GROUND. THERE WERE A FEW QUARTER SIZED STONES.
&&
$$
SNIVELY
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LSRLBF
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
441 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0435 PM HAIL 8 ESE ARTHUR 41.53N 101.55W
05/18/2013 E1.00 INCH ARTHUR NE PUBLIC
MOST STONES WERE PEA TO DIME SIZE AND WERE COVERING THE
GROUND. THERE WERE A FEW QUARTER SIZED STONES.
&&
$$
SNIVELY
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KUNR [182139]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KUNR 182139
LSRUNR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
339 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0315 PM HAIL PACTOLA RESERVOIR 44.07N 103.50W
05/18/2013 E0.70 INCH PENNINGTON SD TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
ME
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LSRUNR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
339 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0315 PM HAIL PACTOLA RESERVOIR 44.07N 103.50W
05/18/2013 E0.70 INCH PENNINGTON SD TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
ME
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KUNR [182138]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KUNR 182138
LSRUNR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
338 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0225 PM HAIL 4 NW NEMO 44.23N 103.56W
05/18/2013 E0.70 INCH LAWRENCE SD TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
ME
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LSRUNR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
338 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0225 PM HAIL 4 NW NEMO 44.23N 103.56W
05/18/2013 E0.70 INCH LAWRENCE SD TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
ME
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KUNR [182137]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KUNR 182137
LSRUNR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
337 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0215 PM HAIL 14 ENE DOWNTOWN STURGIS 44.49N 103.25W
05/18/2013 E0.75 INCH MEADE SD PUBLIC
&&
$$
ME
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LSRUNR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
337 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0215 PM HAIL 14 ENE DOWNTOWN STURGIS 44.49N 103.25W
05/18/2013 E0.75 INCH MEADE SD PUBLIC
&&
$$
ME
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KDDC [182135]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KDDC 182135
LSRDDC
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
435 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0425 PM HAIL UTICA 38.64N 100.17W
05/18/2013 E1.00 INCH NESS KS CO-OP OBSERVER
&&
$$
WHOVORKA
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LSRDDC
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
435 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0425 PM HAIL UTICA 38.64N 100.17W
05/18/2013 E1.00 INCH NESS KS CO-OP OBSERVER
&&
$$
WHOVORKA
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KOUN [182135]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KOUN 182135
LSROUN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
435 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0433 PM HAIL 9 W ELDORADO 34.47N 99.81W
05/18/2013 E1.75 INCH JACKSON OK PUBLIC
&&
$$
JPIKE
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LSROUN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
435 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0433 PM HAIL 9 W ELDORADO 34.47N 99.81W
05/18/2013 E1.75 INCH JACKSON OK PUBLIC
&&
$$
JPIKE
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KDDC [182133]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KDDC 182133
LSRDDC
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
433 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0426 PM HAIL 3 W UTICA 38.64N 100.23W
05/18/2013 E2.00 INCH NESS KS TRAINED SPOTTER
THE CALLER REPORTED HAIL AS BIGGER THAN GOLFBALL.
&&
$$
BURKE
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LSRDDC
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
433 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0426 PM HAIL 3 W UTICA 38.64N 100.23W
05/18/2013 E2.00 INCH NESS KS TRAINED SPOTTER
THE CALLER REPORTED HAIL AS BIGGER THAN GOLFBALL.
&&
$$
BURKE
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KGLD [182117]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KGLD 182117
LSRGLD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
317 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0317 PM HAIL MINGO 39.28N 100.96W
05/18/2013 E1.00 INCH THOMAS KS PUBLIC
REPORT OF QUARTER SIZED HAIL NEAR MILE MARKER 61. REPORT
VERIFIED BY SHERIFF DISPATCH IN THOMAS COUNTY.
&&
$$
ALW
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LSRGLD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
317 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0317 PM HAIL MINGO 39.28N 100.96W
05/18/2013 E1.00 INCH THOMAS KS PUBLIC
REPORT OF QUARTER SIZED HAIL NEAR MILE MARKER 61. REPORT
VERIFIED BY SHERIFF DISPATCH IN THOMAS COUNTY.
&&
$$
ALW
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KDDC [182117]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KDDC 182117
LSRDDC
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
417 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0413 PM HAIL 4 SW UTICA 38.60N 100.21W
05/18/2013 E1.75 INCH NESS KS PUBLIC
&&
$$
WHOVORKA
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LSRDDC
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
417 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0413 PM HAIL 4 SW UTICA 38.60N 100.21W
05/18/2013 E1.75 INCH NESS KS PUBLIC
&&
$$
WHOVORKA
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KDDC [182107]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KDDC 182107
LSRDDC
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
407 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0400 PM HAIL 7 W WAKEENEY 39.02N 100.01W
05/18/2013 E1.75 INCH TREGO KS PUBLIC
&&
$$
WHOVORKA
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LSRDDC
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
407 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0400 PM HAIL 7 W WAKEENEY 39.02N 100.01W
05/18/2013 E1.75 INCH TREGO KS PUBLIC
&&
$$
WHOVORKA
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KCHS [182105]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KCHS 182105
LSRCHS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
505 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0450 PM HAIL GUYTON 32.34N 81.39W
05/18/2013 E0.88 INCH EFFINGHAM GA TRAINED SPOTTER
SPOTTER REPORTED 10 MINUTES OF DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
IN GUYTON.
&&
EVENT NUMBER CHS1300296
$$
BDC
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LSRCHS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
505 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0450 PM HAIL GUYTON 32.34N 81.39W
05/18/2013 E0.88 INCH EFFINGHAM GA TRAINED SPOTTER
SPOTTER REPORTED 10 MINUTES OF DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
IN GUYTON.
&&
EVENT NUMBER CHS1300296
$$
BDC
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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 172
WWUS20 KWNS 182057
SEL2
SPC WW 182057
SDZ000-190400-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 172
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
255 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 255 PM UNTIL
1000 PM MDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM LEMMON SOUTH DAKOTA TO
75 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF PHILIP SOUTH DAKOTA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 170...WW 171...
DISCUSSION...STORM COVERAGE IS IN THE PROCESS OF INCREASING
NEAR/NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS AREA...WHERE STEEP LAPSE
RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A RISK FOR AT LEAST SEVERE HAIL...AIDED BY
MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH 30-40 KT SOUTHERLY 500 MB FLOW.
THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE
WEAKENING/SHIFTING EAST OF REGION.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 50
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...KERR
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SEL2
SPC WW 182057
SDZ000-190400-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 172
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
255 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 255 PM UNTIL
1000 PM MDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM LEMMON SOUTH DAKOTA TO
75 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF PHILIP SOUTH DAKOTA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 170...WW 171...
DISCUSSION...STORM COVERAGE IS IN THE PROCESS OF INCREASING
NEAR/NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS AREA...WHERE STEEP LAPSE
RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A RISK FOR AT LEAST SEVERE HAIL...AIDED BY
MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH 30-40 KT SOUTHERLY 500 MB FLOW.
THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE
WEAKENING/SHIFTING EAST OF REGION.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 50
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...KERR
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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0677
ACUS11 KWNS 182031
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182031
SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-182130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0677
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL SD...NERN WY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 182031Z - 182130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
DISCUSSION...SLOW-MOVING SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING
FOR THE LAST 1-2 HOURS ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS...WITH MODERATE MLCAPE
OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS SUPPORTING A
LARGE HAIL RISK. ADDITIONAL ATTEMPTS AT INITIATION ARE UNDERWAY
NORTH OF THE ONGOING SUPERCELLS...AND ALSO FURTHER EAST NEAR PIR
ALONG A DIFFUSE SLOW-MOVING WARM FRONT. MULTIPLE EMBEDDED VORTICITY
MAXIMA WITHIN BROAD SWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT...WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES.
SPLITTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE THE PRIMARY MODE FOR THE NEXT 2-3
HOURS...WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
TORNADO...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORMS INTERACTING WITH THE WARM
FRONT. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS IS POSSIBLE EARLY
THIS EVENING...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO INCREASE IN SEVERE WIND RISK. IF
THE UPWARD TREND IN TSTM COVERAGE CONTINUES...WW ISSUANCE WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
..DEAN/KERR.. 05/18/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...CYS...BYZ...
LAT...LON 43490430 44130510 45020508 45630337 45730190 45590035
45139934 44469890 43909877 43549887 43369958 43100010
43040042 43050199 43010293 43030356 43070388 43330414
43490430
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SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182031
SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-182130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0677
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL SD...NERN WY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 182031Z - 182130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
DISCUSSION...SLOW-MOVING SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING
FOR THE LAST 1-2 HOURS ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS...WITH MODERATE MLCAPE
OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS SUPPORTING A
LARGE HAIL RISK. ADDITIONAL ATTEMPTS AT INITIATION ARE UNDERWAY
NORTH OF THE ONGOING SUPERCELLS...AND ALSO FURTHER EAST NEAR PIR
ALONG A DIFFUSE SLOW-MOVING WARM FRONT. MULTIPLE EMBEDDED VORTICITY
MAXIMA WITHIN BROAD SWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT...WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES.
SPLITTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE THE PRIMARY MODE FOR THE NEXT 2-3
HOURS...WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
TORNADO...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY STORMS INTERACTING WITH THE WARM
FRONT. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS IS POSSIBLE EARLY
THIS EVENING...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO INCREASE IN SEVERE WIND RISK. IF
THE UPWARD TREND IN TSTM COVERAGE CONTINUES...WW ISSUANCE WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
..DEAN/KERR.. 05/18/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...CYS...BYZ...
LAT...LON 43490430 44130510 45020508 45630337 45730190 45590035
45139934 44469890 43909877 43549887 43369958 43100010
43040042 43050199 43010293 43030356 43070388 43330414
43490430
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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 171
WWUS20 KWNS 182025
SEL1
SPC WW 182025
OKZ000-TXZ000-190400-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 171
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
320 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 320 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS LIKELY WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
ALVA OKLAHOMA TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF ABILENE TEXAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 170...
DISCUSSION...SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE NEAR THE DRYLINE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE BORDER
AREA... SOUTHWARD ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS...TOWARD THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU...DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS INHIBITION WEAKENS IN
PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL POSE A RISK FOR
VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES...BEFORE ACTIVITY GROWS UPSCALE
THIS EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL PERHAPS BECOMING MORE
PROMINENT. AS LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BECOME CLOCKWISE CURVED AND
QUITE LARGE THIS EVENING...AND BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
INCREASES WITH DIURNAL COOLING...A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY MAY EXIST
FOR A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO...BEFORE CONVECTION CONSOLIDATES INTO
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.
...KERR
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SEL1
SPC WW 182025
OKZ000-TXZ000-190400-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 171
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
320 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 320 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS LIKELY WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
ALVA OKLAHOMA TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF ABILENE TEXAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 170...
DISCUSSION...SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE NEAR THE DRYLINE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLE BORDER
AREA... SOUTHWARD ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS...TOWARD THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU...DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS INHIBITION WEAKENS IN
PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL POSE A RISK FOR
VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES...BEFORE ACTIVITY GROWS UPSCALE
THIS EVENING...WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL PERHAPS BECOMING MORE
PROMINENT. AS LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BECOME CLOCKWISE CURVED AND
QUITE LARGE THIS EVENING...AND BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
INCREASES WITH DIURNAL COOLING...A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY MAY EXIST
FOR A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO...BEFORE CONVECTION CONSOLIDATES INTO
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.
...KERR
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KUNR [182006]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KUNR 182006
LSRUNR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
206 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0200 PM HAIL 3 NE TILFORD 44.33N 103.39W
05/18/2013 E1.00 INCH MEADE SD PUBLIC
&&
$$
ME
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LSRUNR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
206 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0200 PM HAIL 3 NE TILFORD 44.33N 103.39W
05/18/2013 E1.00 INCH MEADE SD PUBLIC
&&
$$
ME
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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 170
WWUS20 KWNS 181952
SEL0
SPC WW 181952
COZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-190400-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 170
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
245 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
WESTERN NEBRASKA
* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 245 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES LIKELY
NUMEROUS LARGE HAIL EVENTS LIKELY WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
CHADRON NEBRASKA TO 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MEDICINE LODGE KANSAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
DISCUSSION...INITIATION OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...BOTH WITHIN MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR THE LEE SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO...AND ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN KANSAS. AS
ACTIVITY SPREADS NORTHWARD/NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN A VERY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE
WITH STRONGEST STORMS INTO EARLY EVENING. TORNADIC POTENTIAL MAY BE
A BIT SLOWER TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS KANSAS...THAN IN
THE COOLER UPSLOPE REGIME TO THE NORTHWEST...BUT LOW-LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENING AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
SUPPORT A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ONE OR TWO STRONG TORNADOES
ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25025.
...KERR
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SEL0
SPC WW 181952
COZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-190400-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 170
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
245 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
WESTERN NEBRASKA
* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 245 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES LIKELY
NUMEROUS LARGE HAIL EVENTS LIKELY WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
CHADRON NEBRASKA TO 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MEDICINE LODGE KANSAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
DISCUSSION...INITIATION OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...BOTH WITHIN MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR THE LEE SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO...AND ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN KANSAS. AS
ACTIVITY SPREADS NORTHWARD/NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN A VERY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE
WITH STRONGEST STORMS INTO EARLY EVENING. TORNADIC POTENTIAL MAY BE
A BIT SLOWER TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS KANSAS...THAN IN
THE COOLER UPSLOPE REGIME TO THE NORTHWEST...BUT LOW-LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENING AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
SUPPORT A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ONE OR TWO STRONG TORNADOES
ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25025.
...KERR
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KUNR [181942]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KUNR 181942
LSRUNR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
142 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0115 PM HAIL 1 SE DOWNTOWN SPEARFISH 44.49N 103.84W
05/18/2013 E0.88 INCH LAWRENCE SD TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
ME
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LSRUNR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
142 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0115 PM HAIL 1 SE DOWNTOWN SPEARFISH 44.49N 103.84W
05/18/2013 E0.88 INCH LAWRENCE SD TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
ME
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KUNR [181941]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KUNR 181941
LSRUNR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
141 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1245 PM HAIL 6 SE DEADWOOD 44.31N 103.64W
05/18/2013 E0.88 INCH LAWRENCE SD TRAINED SPOTTER
DIME TO NICKEL HAIL
&&
$$
ME
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LSRUNR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
141 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1245 PM HAIL 6 SE DEADWOOD 44.31N 103.64W
05/18/2013 E0.88 INCH LAWRENCE SD TRAINED SPOTTER
DIME TO NICKEL HAIL
&&
$$
ME
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 181941
SWODY1
SPC AC 181938
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
VALID 182000Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NWRN OK INTO SWRN NEB...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
WEST TX INTO SERN ND/WRN MN...
EARLIER THOUGHTS REGARDING CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION REMAIN. AS A
RESULT...ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE TO 1630Z SEVERE
THREAT ALONG THE DRYLINE.
STRONG HEATING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO
SWRN KS HAVE FORCED SFC TEMPERATURES TO NEAR/ABOVE 100F. AS A
RESULT...CAP HAS BEEN REMOVED AND BOUNDARY LAYER CU ARE DEEPENING
MARKEDLY ALONG LEADING EDGE OF STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME ACROSS SWRN
KS. IT APPEARS TSTMS WILL EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS
THIS REGION.
HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE MDT RISK A BIT NORTH ACROSS NEB TO ACCOUNT
FOR SCT-NUMEROUS TSTMS THAT SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG WRN FRINGE OF HIGHER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. WEAK CONVERGENCE AXIS EXTENDS FROM JUST EAST
OF GLD INTO CHERRY COUNTY NEB AND THIS SHOULD FOCUS SEVERE TSTMS BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
HAVE MADE A SWD ADJUSTMENT TO CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK ALONG THE
DRYLINE OVER SWRN TX TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED SEVERE DEVELOPMENT AT
THIS LATITUDE. ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ISOLATED...IT APPEARS
SUFFICIENT FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT DEEP ROTATING UPDRAFTS.
..DARROW.. 05/18/2013
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
...SYNOPSIS...
IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WARM
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR HAS OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO
MOISTEN DUE TO BOTH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND A RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE
OFF GULF OF MEXICO. VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW /AT 850 MB/ TO A
SUBSTANTIAL WESTERLY COMPONENT APPEARS TO BE CUTTING OFF THE GULF
RETURN FLOW TO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...THOUGH...AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY. BUT THIS MAY BEGIN TO CHANGE BY THIS EVENING...AS
LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO A MORE PROMINENT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT...AND
STRENGTHENS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEEPENING AND CONSOLIDATION OF A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
INCREASE TO THE EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
MODEST STRENGTHENING OF CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PLAINS TODAY...AS SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE IMPULSES BEGIN TO EMERGE
FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT...HOWEVER...WILL
PERSIST IN A BELT ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES...BUT COULD BEGIN TO NOSE EASTWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
STILL...GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES EVOLVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PLAINS...WHICH WILL INCLUDE AREAS OF STRONG TO EXTREME CAPE...A RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS A FAIRLY BROAD AREA.
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO THE
RISK FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH MAY BECOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.
ALTHOUGH SEVERE PROBABILITIES STILL SEEM A BIT LOWER THAN THE
PLAINS...OTHER STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO
OCCUR TODAY EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE
EASTERN GULF STATES. THIS IS WHERE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM
ADVECTION ON THE EASTWARD ADVANCING EDGE OF WARMER ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER AIR...IN THE WAKE OF A WEAKENING UPPER IMPULSE ADVANCING
TOWARD THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING LIFT
AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
...CENTRAL PLAINS...
AN INITIAL IMPULSE...NOW LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE PANHANDLE REGION
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...IS CONTRIBUTING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY
CONCERNING DRYLINE POSITION AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER.
HOWEVER...THE DRYLINE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION AND STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. AIDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH CONTINUING MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS...SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL INHIBITION IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR THE INITIATION OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE 21-00Z TIME
FRAME...PERHAPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST
TEXAS AS WELL.
VERY LARGE HAIL MAY BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...INITIALLY... BUT
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PROBABLY WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY STEEP TO SUPPORT
A RISK FOR TORNADOES BENEATH INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC AND DIFLUENT
HIGH-LEVEL FLOW. AS THE 850 MB JET BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY AND
STRENGTHENS TO 40-50+ KT LATER THIS EVENING...A WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST FOR INCREASING TORNADIC POTENTIAL...INCLUDING
THE RISK FOR ONE OR TWO STRONG TORNADOES. THIS POTENTIAL APPEARS TO
HINGE LARGELY ON HOW LONG IT TAKES FOR CONVECTION TO GROW UPSCALE
INTO ORGANIZING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS...WITH DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS BECOMING A MORE PROMINENT THREAT. THIS REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...BUT IT APPEARS THAT UPSCALE GROWTH COULD OCCUR FAIRLY
QUICKLY.
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SWODY1
SPC AC 181938
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
VALID 182000Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NWRN OK INTO SWRN NEB...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
WEST TX INTO SERN ND/WRN MN...
EARLIER THOUGHTS REGARDING CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION REMAIN. AS A
RESULT...ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE TO 1630Z SEVERE
THREAT ALONG THE DRYLINE.
STRONG HEATING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO
SWRN KS HAVE FORCED SFC TEMPERATURES TO NEAR/ABOVE 100F. AS A
RESULT...CAP HAS BEEN REMOVED AND BOUNDARY LAYER CU ARE DEEPENING
MARKEDLY ALONG LEADING EDGE OF STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME ACROSS SWRN
KS. IT APPEARS TSTMS WILL EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS
THIS REGION.
HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE MDT RISK A BIT NORTH ACROSS NEB TO ACCOUNT
FOR SCT-NUMEROUS TSTMS THAT SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG WRN FRINGE OF HIGHER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. WEAK CONVERGENCE AXIS EXTENDS FROM JUST EAST
OF GLD INTO CHERRY COUNTY NEB AND THIS SHOULD FOCUS SEVERE TSTMS BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
HAVE MADE A SWD ADJUSTMENT TO CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK ALONG THE
DRYLINE OVER SWRN TX TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED SEVERE DEVELOPMENT AT
THIS LATITUDE. ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ISOLATED...IT APPEARS
SUFFICIENT FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT DEEP ROTATING UPDRAFTS.
..DARROW.. 05/18/2013
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
...SYNOPSIS...
IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WARM
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR HAS OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO
MOISTEN DUE TO BOTH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND A RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE
OFF GULF OF MEXICO. VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW /AT 850 MB/ TO A
SUBSTANTIAL WESTERLY COMPONENT APPEARS TO BE CUTTING OFF THE GULF
RETURN FLOW TO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...THOUGH...AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY. BUT THIS MAY BEGIN TO CHANGE BY THIS EVENING...AS
LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO A MORE PROMINENT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT...AND
STRENGTHENS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEEPENING AND CONSOLIDATION OF A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
INCREASE TO THE EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
MODEST STRENGTHENING OF CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PLAINS TODAY...AS SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE IMPULSES BEGIN TO EMERGE
FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT...HOWEVER...WILL
PERSIST IN A BELT ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES...BUT COULD BEGIN TO NOSE EASTWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
STILL...GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES EVOLVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PLAINS...WHICH WILL INCLUDE AREAS OF STRONG TO EXTREME CAPE...A RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS A FAIRLY BROAD AREA.
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO THE
RISK FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH MAY BECOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.
ALTHOUGH SEVERE PROBABILITIES STILL SEEM A BIT LOWER THAN THE
PLAINS...OTHER STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO
OCCUR TODAY EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE
EASTERN GULF STATES. THIS IS WHERE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM
ADVECTION ON THE EASTWARD ADVANCING EDGE OF WARMER ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER AIR...IN THE WAKE OF A WEAKENING UPPER IMPULSE ADVANCING
TOWARD THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING LIFT
AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
...CENTRAL PLAINS...
AN INITIAL IMPULSE...NOW LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE PANHANDLE REGION
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...IS CONTRIBUTING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY
CONCERNING DRYLINE POSITION AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER.
HOWEVER...THE DRYLINE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION AND STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. AIDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH CONTINUING MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS...SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL INHIBITION IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR THE INITIATION OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE 21-00Z TIME
FRAME...PERHAPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST
TEXAS AS WELL.
VERY LARGE HAIL MAY BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...INITIALLY... BUT
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PROBABLY WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY STEEP TO SUPPORT
A RISK FOR TORNADOES BENEATH INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC AND DIFLUENT
HIGH-LEVEL FLOW. AS THE 850 MB JET BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY AND
STRENGTHENS TO 40-50+ KT LATER THIS EVENING...A WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST FOR INCREASING TORNADIC POTENTIAL...INCLUDING
THE RISK FOR ONE OR TWO STRONG TORNADOES. THIS POTENTIAL APPEARS TO
HINGE LARGELY ON HOW LONG IT TAKES FOR CONVECTION TO GROW UPSCALE
INTO ORGANIZING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS...WITH DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS BECOMING A MORE PROMINENT THREAT. THIS REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...BUT IT APPEARS THAT UPSCALE GROWTH COULD OCCUR FAIRLY
QUICKLY.
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KCHS [181931]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KCHS 181931
LSRCHS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
331 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0252 PM LIGHTNING SYLVANIA 32.75N 81.64W
05/18/2013 SCREVEN GA 911 CALL CENTER
SCREVEN COUNTY 911 REPORTED LIGHTNING STRUCK A TREE AND
FELL ON A CAR IN DOWNTOWN SYLVANIA.
&&
EVENT NUMBER CHS1300295
$$
BDC
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LSRCHS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
331 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0252 PM LIGHTNING SYLVANIA 32.75N 81.64W
05/18/2013 SCREVEN GA 911 CALL CENTER
SCREVEN COUNTY 911 REPORTED LIGHTNING STRUCK A TREE AND
FELL ON A CAR IN DOWNTOWN SYLVANIA.
&&
EVENT NUMBER CHS1300295
$$
BDC
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