KSLC [020243]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KSLC 020243
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
740 PM MST SAT MAR 01 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 SE OGDEN 41.19N 111.87W
03/01/2008 M74 MPH WEBER UT MESONET

SNOWBASIN STRAW TOP - 8999 FT

0600 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 S ALTA 40.57N 111.64W
03/01/2008 M74 MPH SALT LAKE UT MESONET

CENTRAL WASATCH PEAKS - 11000 FT

0338 PM NON-TSTM WND GST HIGHLAND 40.42N 111.79W
03/01/2008 M73 MPH UTAH UT TRAINED SPOTTER

0650 PM NON-TSTM WND GST LEHI 40.42N 111.84W
03/01/2008 M71 MPH UTAH UT MESONET

LEHI - 4790 FT

0615 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 E OGDEN 41.20N 111.88W
03/01/2008 M66 MPH WEBER UT MESONET

OGDEN PEAK - 9570 FT

0700 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW PARK CITY 40.61N 111.53W
03/01/2008 M64 MPH SUMMIT UT MESONET

DEER VALLEY EMPIRE PK - 9570 FT

0645 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 SW PARK CITY 40.61N 111.54W
03/01/2008 M63 MPH SUMMIT UT MESONET

PARK CITY JUPITER - 10024 FT

0645 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NE VERNON 40.13N 112.38W
03/01/2008 M63 MPH TOOELE UT MESONET

VERNON HILL - 5761 FT

0338 PM NON-TSTM WND GST EUREKA 39.95N 112.12W
03/01/2008 M61 MPH JUAB UT TRAINED SPOTTER

0645 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 11 W DUGWAY 40.21N 112.96W
03/01/2008 M58 MPH TOOELE UT MESONET

NW DECON PAD - 4380 FT

0600 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SW ALTA 40.56N 111.64W
03/01/2008 M58 MPH UTAH UT MESONET

CENTRAL WASATCH PEAKS - 10994 FT

0600 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 N ALTA 40.57N 111.63W
03/01/2008 M58 MPH SALT LAKE UT MESONET

CENTRAL WASATCH RIDGELINES - 10000 FT

&&

$$

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KCYS [020126]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KCYS 020126
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
625 PM MST SAT MAR 01 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0425 AM NON-TSTM WND GST ARLINGTON 41.59N 106.21W
03/01/2008 M69.00 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUST 47 MPH

0530 AM NON-TSTM WND GST ARLINGTON 41.59N 106.21W
03/01/2008 M55.00 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUST 39 MPH

0405 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ARLINGTON 41.59N 106.21W
03/01/2008 M73.00 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

STRONGEST WIND GUST ALSO REPORTED AT 400 PM MST.
SUSTAINED WIND AT TIME OF REPORT WAS 46 MPH. ELEV. 7763
FEET.

0505 PM HIGH SUST WINDS ARLINGTON 41.59N 106.21W
03/01/2008 M50.00 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

HIGHEST SUSTAINED WIND REPORTED. GUST TO 65 MPH AT TIME
OF REPORT. ELEV. 7763 FEET.

0530 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ARLINGTON 41.59N 106.21W
03/01/2008 M70.00 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

LATEST OF GUSTS TO 70 MPH. GUST TO 70 MPH ALSO REPORTED
AT 525 PM MST. SUSTAINED WINDS AT TIME OF REPORTS WERE 47
MPH AT 530 PM MST AND 49 MPH AT 525 PM MST. SEVERAL OTHER
GUSTS APPROACHED 70 MPH BETWEEN 530 PM MST AND 605 PM
MST. ELEV. 7763 FEET.

&&

$$

SJC

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KCYS [020124]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 020124
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
624 PM MST SAT MAR 01 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ARLINGTON 41.59N 106.21W
03/01/2008 M70 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

LATEST OF GUSTS TO 70 MPH. GUST TO 70 MPH ALSO REPORTED
AT 525 PM MST. SUSTAINED WINDS AT TIME OF REPORTS WERE 47
MPH AT 530 PM MST AND 49 MPH AT 525 PM MST. SEVERAL OTHER
GUSTS APPROACHED 70 MPH BETWEEN 530 PM MST AND 605 PM
MST. ELEV. 7763 FEET.

&&

$$

SJC

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KCYS [020122]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 020122
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
622 PM MST SAT MAR 01 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0505 PM HIGH SUST WINDS ARLINGTON 41.59N 106.21W
03/01/2008 M50 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

HIGHEST SUSTAINED WIND REPORTED. GUST TO 65 MPH AT TIME
OF REPORT. ELEV. 7763 FEET.

&&

$$

SJC

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 020047
SWODY1
SPC AC 020044

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0644 PM CST SAT MAR 01 2008

VALID 020100Z - 021200Z

..NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE WRN CONUS...WHILE
LEAD WAVE CONTINUES MOVING ACROSS THE SWRN U.S./NWRN MEXICO BORDER.

THOUGH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MAIN TROUGH...AND A FEW
OTHERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE LEAD
WAVE...OVERALL THUNDER THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW GIVEN OVERALL LACK
OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.

.GOSS.. 03/02/2008

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KSGF [020001]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KSGF 020001
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
601 PM CST SAT MAR 01 2008

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0547 PM WILDFIRE 2 NW ELDRIDGE 37.85N 92.77W
03/01/2008 E300 ACRE LACLEDE MO EMERGENCY MNGR

ALSO TWO OTHER 50 ACRE GRASSFIRES IN LACLEDE COUNTY.

&&

CORRECTED REMARKS

$$

DSA

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KCYS [012356]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 012356
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
456 PM MST SAT MAR 01 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0405 PM NON-TSTM WND GST ARLINGTON 41.59N 106.21W
03/01/2008 M73 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

STRONGEST WIND GUST ALSO REPORTED AT 400 PM MST.
SUSTAINED WIND AT TIME OF REPORT WAS 46 MPH. ELEV. 7763
FEET.

&&

$$

SJC

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KVEF [012348]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 012348
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
348 PM PST SAT MAR 01 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0314 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 28 S OLANCHA 35.87N 117.92W
03/01/2008 M57 MPH INYO CA MESONET

FIVE MILE RAWS SITE

&&

$$

RUNK

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KSGF [012347]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 012347
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
547 PM CST SAT MAR 01 2008

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0547 PM WILDFIRE 2 NW ELDRIDGE 37.85N 92.77W
03/01/2008 E300 ACRE LACLEDE MO EMERGENCY MNGR

ALSO TWO OTHER 50 ACRE GRASSFIRES IN THE LACLEDE
COUNTY.

&&

$$

DSA

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KVEF [012339]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 012339
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
339 PM PST SAT MAR 01 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1240 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 WSW INDEPENDENCE 36.77N 118.28W
03/01/2008 M60 MPH INYO CA MESONET

&&

$$

ASG

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KTFX [012039]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 012039
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
138 PM MST SAT MAR 01 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0134 PM HEAVY SNOW 4 SE BOZEMAN 45.64N 110.98W
03/01/2008 M3.0 INCH GALLATIN MT TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER AT BEAR CANYON REPORTS 3 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE
GROUND AND MODERATE SNOW CONTINUING.

&&

$$

SAUCIER

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0314

ACUS11 KWNS 012027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012026
MEZ000-012230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0314
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 PM CST SAT MAR 01 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN ME

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 012026Z - 012230Z

A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
LIKELY INCLUDING CARIBOU AND A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHERN MAINE.
SNOW RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE LIKELY...AND MAY
CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS ALREADY DEEPER THAN THAT
SUGGESTED BY THE RUC...BUT APPEARS ON PAR WITH OTHER MODEL
GUIDANCE...WHICH TRACK IT TOWARD THE DOWNEAST COAST THROUGH 02/00Z.
AS THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST OF THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES...A NEW LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE
IN THE PROCESS OF FORMING ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE/WESTERN MAINE...MUCH
AS PROGGED BY THE MODELS. AND...AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION
IS EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS NORTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK INTO NORTHERN
MAINE. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRENGTHENING LIFT IN THE FAVORABLE
MIXED PHASE LAYER FOR LARGE DENDRITIC ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH...LIKELY
SUPPORTING A SUSTAINED BAND OF HEAVY SNOW THAT WILL PERSIST WELL
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
REGIME ON THE NOSE OF A 50+ KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO
LIFT NORTH OF DOWNEAST MAINE...WITH HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER /AOA
.5 INCHES...AS INDICATED BY RUC GUIDANCE/ BEGINNING TO ADVECT
INLAND. NCEP-SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
TO SUPPORT 1-3 INCH PER HOUR SNOW RATES NORTH OF HOULTON INTO MUCH
OF ARISTOOK COUNTY ...AND PERHAPS ADJACENT PORTIONS OF COUNTIES TO
THE SOUTHWEST ...BY 22-23Z.

.KERR.. 03/01/2008

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

..NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...CAR...

46336768 46216838 46186904 46436957 46736967 47206962

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 011955
SWODY1
SPC AC 011952

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 PM CST SAT MAR 01 2008

VALID 012000Z - 021200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...

COLD...MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL UNDERGO FURTHER
AMPLIFICATION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHILE DIGGING SEWD TOWARD
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CNTRL
MT SWWD TO LOW PRESSURE OVER NRN UT AND INTO CNTRL NV AS OF 18Z WILL
CONTINUE EWD/SEWD IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM. VISIBLE
SATELLITE INDICATES CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ATTENDANT TO THE
MIDLEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...HOWEVER SOME DEEPER CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONT OVER NRN UT AS WELL AS W OF
THE DENSER CLOUD SHIELD OVER WRN ID.

CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT POCKETS OF WEAK
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH ISOLATED...DIURNAL STORMS POSSIBLE OWING
TO OROGRAPHICS AND DYNAMIC FORCING WITH UPPER TROUGH. SOME SMALL
HAIL OR GRAUPEL MAY ACCOMPANY THE MORE INTENSE STORMS.

..SRN NM/FAR WRN TX...

SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO WILL EXIST LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITHIN ZONE OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD
OF OPENING UPPER WAVE WHICH WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS NWRN MEXICO.

..SRN/CNTRL TX...

A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON OVER SRN AND CNTRL TX ALONG AND TO THE S OF FRONTOLYTIC
BOUNDARY ANALYZED EARLIER THIS MORNING FROM NEAR THE METROPLEX EWD
INTO NRN OR CNTRL LA. MODIFICATION OF RUC SOUNDINGS FOR CURRENT
SURFACE CONDITIONS SUGGESTS THAT EML CENTERED AROUND 700 MB MAY
STILL BE INHIBITIVE TO DEEPER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE NOTABLE DRYING/SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION PER WV IMAGERY.
THEREFORE...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT
POTENTIAL FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS QUITE LIMITED.

.MEAD.. 03/01/2008

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KBOI [011910]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOI 011910
LSRBOI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1210 PM MST SAT MAR 01 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1206 PM HAIL BOISE 43.61N 116.23W
03/01/2008 E0.50 INCH ADA ID NWS EMPLOYEE

NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED 1/2 INCH DIAMETER HAIL IN DOWNTOWN
BOISE.

&&

$$

SLEWIS

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KVEF [011909]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 011909
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1109 AM PST SAT MAR 01 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0851 AM NON-TSTM WND GST ASPENDELL 37.23N 118.58W
03/01/2008 M51 MPH INYO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

ASSOCIATED WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS

&&

$$

RUNK

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KBOI [011857]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOI 011857
LSRBOI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1157 AM MST SAT MAR 01 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1130 AM SNOW 12 NE BOISE 43.73N 116.06W
03/01/2008 M3.0 INCH BOISE ID MESONET

BOGUS BASIN SNOW STAKE 4 AM-11 AM.

1100 AM SNOW 12 NE BOISE 43.73N 116.06W
03/01/2008 M4.0 INCH BOISE ID MESONET

BOGUS BASIN SNOTEL 5 AM - 10 AM.

1100 AM SNOW 10 SSW LOWMAN 43.93N 115.67W
03/01/2008 M2.5 INCH BOISE ID MESONET

MORES CREEK SUMMITT SNOTEL 7 AM - 9 AM. ALSO JACKSON PEAK
SNOTEL 1.9 INCHES NEW SNOW 6 AM - 11 AM.

0950 AM SNOW DEADWOOD RES 44.30N 115.67W
03/01/2008 M3.0 INCH VALLEY ID TRAINED SPOTTER

DEADWOOD LODGE COOPERATIVE OBSERVER. 83 INCHES ON THE
GROUND.

&&

$$

VMILLS

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0313

ACUS11 KWNS 011753
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011752
MEZ000-011945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0313
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 AM CST SAT MAR 01 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...DOWNEAST MAINE

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 011752Z - 011945Z

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF COASTAL MAINE
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FOCUSED ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN MAINE
..FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN BANGOR AND LINCOLN
..EASTWARD...SHORTLY...AND CONTINUE INTO LATE AFTERNOON.

SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IS NOW UNDERWAY NEAR THE
MASSACHUSETTS COAST. AND...MODEL PROGS GENERALLY INDICATE 1 MB PER
HOUR DEEPENING OF THE LOW AS IT TRACKS EAST NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
COASTAL MAINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS MUCH OF MAINE...WHERE SUB-FREEZING
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES INLAND OF CURRENT COASTAL SNOW BAND ARE
BECOMING INCREASINGLY SATURATED.

WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...STRONGEST DEEP LAYER ASCENT APPEARS
LIKELY TO BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS MUCH OF DOWNEAST MAINE...ON THE NOSE
OF AN EAST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN IN
EXCESS OF 50 KT. THIS IS WHERE MODELS SUGGEST THAT JUXTAPOSITION
WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING...ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASINGLY
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...WILL SUPPORT INTENSIFYING LIFT THROUGH THE MIXED PHASE LAYER
FAVORABLE FOR DENDRITIC ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH. AND...SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE APPEARS TO EXIST TO SUPPORT A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF 1-2 INCH
PER HOUR SNOW RATES...BEFORE ONSET OF WEAK MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING TOWARD 21-22Z.

.KERR.. 03/01/2008

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

..NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

44606759 44516820 44716905 45266918 45926879 46136845
46046766

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 011731
SWODY2
SPC AC 011729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CST SAT MAR 01 2008

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...

..SYNOPSIS...

PRIMARY FEATURES OF INTEREST DURING THE DAY TWO PERIOD WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND
OPENING WAVE OVER NRN BAJA. THE LATTER WILL PRECEDE THE MAIN TROUGH
WITH SOME MODEL VARIANCE IN INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
TRANSLATES ENEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...MAIN SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT PROGRESSES SEWD
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING UPPER JET STREAK FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO
SRN ROCKIES.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...ATTENDANT COLD FRONT INITIALLY FROM THE ERN
DAKOTAS SWWD INTO CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LIKELY EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO CNTRL
TX BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.

..SRN PLAINS...

12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS OVER S TX INDICATED THAT A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER IS ALREADY IN PLACE WITH 100MB MEAN MIXING RATIOS OF 11-12
G/KG. STRENGTHENING SLY/SWLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL SUPPORT
THE NWD ADVECTION OF AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE 50S AHEAD OF FRONT AS FAR NE AS THE
MID MS VALLEY. RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR /DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/
WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SERN TX. THIS
MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR BENEATH A PLUME OF RATHER STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES /7-8 C PER KM/...SUPPORTING SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG
OVER OK AND N TX...INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG OVER CNTRL TX.

ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS ALONG COLD FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON FROM CNTRL KS
SWWD INTO NWRN OK AND THE FAR ERN TX PNHDL. SEWD FRONTAL SURGE
COUPLED WITH A GROWING SYSTEM COLD POOL SHOULD SUPPORT THE GROWTH
AND MAINTENANCE OF A QLCS SEWD THROUGH OK AND NRN/CNTRL TX FROM LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PRESENCE OF THE STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR WITH TIME
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED BOWING AND/OR SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

THERE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER ANY ADDITIONAL
TSTMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LINEAR SYSTEM. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE CAP WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC...THOUGH
FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THIS NOTION IS
SUPPORTED BY THE OPERATIONAL NAM-WRF...ETAKF AND GFS WHICH DEVELOP
ADDITIONAL STORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING ALONG OR E OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR OVER N-CNTRL/NERN TX INTO S-CNTRL/SERN OK.

THIS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE COINCIDENT WITH A NOTABLE
STRENGTHENING OF LLJ ACROSS THE SAME GENERAL REGION...RESULTING IN
INCREASINGLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES. THUS...IT APPEARS THE
GREATEST SUPERCELL AND TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST WITH ANY MORE
DISCRETE STORMS THAT CAN FORM IN THIS REGIME OVER SERN OK INTO NERN
TX SUNDAY NIGHT.

.MEAD.. 03/01/2008

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KBOI [011706]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOI 011706
LSRBOI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1006 AM MST SAT MAR 01 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0940 AM SNOW 5 S MCCALL 44.85N 116.11W
03/01/2008 E4.0 INCH VALLEY ID TRAINED SPOTTER

NEW SNOW OVERNIGHT...SNOWING LIGHTLY AT 930 AM MST.

&&

$$

VMILLS

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KMQT [011654]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 011654
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1153 AM EST SAT MAR 01 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0615 AM SNOW 10 S GRAND MARAIS 46.53N 85.98W
03/01/2008 M4.6 INCH ALGER MI CO-OP OBSERVER

IN 24 HOURS. SNOW DEPTH OF 46 INCHES.

0700 AM SNOW MCMILLAN 46.33N 85.67W
03/01/2008 M5.6 INCH LUCE MI CO-OP OBSERVER

IN 24 HOURS. SNOW DEPTH OF 31 INCHES.

0700 AM SNOW NEWBERRY 46.35N 85.51W
03/01/2008 M7.0 INCH LUCE MI CO-OP OBSERVER

IN 24 HOURS.

0800 AM SNOW IRONWOOD 46.45N 90.15W
03/01/2008 M4.0 INCH GOGEBIC MI CO-OP OBSERVER

IN 24 HOURS. SNOW DEPTH OF 20 INCHES.

0800 AM SNOW 15 S WETMORE 46.16N 86.62W
03/01/2008 M5.8 INCH ALGER MI CO-OP OBSERVER

IN 24 HOURS. SNOW DEPTH OF 41 INCHES.

0845 AM SNOW 4 E DEER PARK 46.67N 85.52W
03/01/2008 M6.0 INCH LUCE MI CO-OP OBSERVER

IN 24 HOURS. SNOW DEPTH OF 37 INCHES.

0930 AM SNOW HOUGHTON 47.11N 88.56W
03/01/2008 M5.5 INCH HOUGHTON MI TRAINED SPOTTER

IN 24 HOURS. SNOW DEPTH OF 26 INCHES.

1000 AM SNOW SHINGLETON 46.35N 86.47W
03/01/2008 E7.5 INCH ALGER MI TRAINED SPOTTER

IN 24 HOURS.

1130 AM SNOW MELSTRAND 46.47N 86.42W
03/01/2008 E11.0 INCH ALGER MI PUBLIC

IN 24 HOURS.

&&

$$

TGREEN

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KBOI [011621]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KBOI 011621
LSRBOI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
921 AM MST SAT MAR 01 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0910 AM SNOW 5 SW ROCK CREEK 44.87N 118.11W
03/01/2008 M3.1 INCH BAKER OR MESONET

EILERTON MEADOWS SNOTEL 5396 FT MSL SNOW 00Z-15Z. TIPTON
SNOTEL 5140 MSL NO NEW PRECIPITATION. SCHNEIDER MEADOWS
0.47 NEW PRECIPITATION...NO NEW SNOW...TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 30S. BOURNE SNOTEL 5797 FT MSL 2 INCHES NEW SNOW
09Z-15Z.

0830 AM SNOW 3 NNW MCCALL 44.95N 116.14W
03/01/2008 M4.1 INCH ADAMS ID MESONET

BEAR BASIN SNOTEL 5347 FT MSL SNOW SINCE 12Z.

0830 AM SNOW 16 ESE FRENCHGLEN 42.71N 118.63W
03/01/2008 M1.3 INCH HARNEY OR MESONET

FISH CREEK SNOTEL 7896 FT MSL SNOW SINCE 10Z. ALSO
SILVIES SNOTEL 2.5 INCHES 10Z-13Z AND SNOW MOUNTAIN
SNOTEL 2.8 INCHES 07Z-13Z.

0800 AM SNOW 7 NW MCCALL 44.99N 116.21W
03/01/2008 M5.0 INCH ADAMS ID MESONET

BRUNDAGE MOUNTAIN SNOW STAKE NEW SNOW SINCE 11Z.

0800 AM SNOW 12 NE BOISE 43.73N 116.06W
03/01/2008 M2.0 INCH BOISE ID MESONET

BOGUS SNOW STAKE WEBCAM.

&&

$$

VMILLS

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KBOI [011620]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOI 011620
LSRBOI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
920 AM MST SAT MAR 01 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0910 AM SNOW 5 SW ROCK CREEK 44.87N 118.11W
03/01/2008 M3.1 INCH BAKER OR MESONET

EILERTON MEADOWS SNOWTEL 5396 FT MSL SNOW 00Z-15Z. TIPTON
SNOTEL 5140 MSL NO NEW PRECIPITATION. SCHNEIDER MEADOWS
0.47 NEW PRECIPITATION...NO NEW SNOW...TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 30S. BOURNE SNOTEL 5797 FT MSO 2 INCHES NEW SNOW
09Z-15Z.

0830 AM SNOW 3 NNW MCCALL 44.95N 116.14W
03/01/2008 M4.1 INCH ADAMS ID MESONET

BEAR BASIN SNOTEL 5347 FT MSL SNOW SINCE 12Z.

0830 AM SNOW 16 ESE FRENCHGLEN 42.71N 118.63W
03/01/2008 M1.3 INCH HARNEY OR MESONET

FISH CREEK SNOTEL 7896 FT MSL SNOW SINCE 10Z. ALSO
SILVIES SNOTEL 2.5 INCHES 10Z-13Z AND SNOW MOUNTAIN
SNOTEL 2.8 INCHES 07Z-13Z.

0800 AM SNOW 7 NW MCCALL 44.99N 116.21W
03/01/2008 M5.0 INCH ADAMS ID MESONET

BRUNDAGE MOUNTAIN SNOW STAKE NEW SNOW SINCE 11Z.

0800 AM SNOW 12 NE BOISE 43.73N 116.06W
03/01/2008 M2.0 INCH BOISE ID MESONET

BOGUS SNOW STAKE WEBCAM.

&&

$$

VMILLS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 011615
SWODY1
SPC AC 011613

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1013 AM CST SAT MAR 01 2008

VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

COLD TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE PAC NW WILL BE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TODAY/TONIGHT. STRONG COLD FRONT WRN MT SWWD
ACROSS NRN NV TO CENTRAL CA WILL BY EVENING REACH A LINE FROM ERN MT
INTO CENTRAL UT SWWD OFFSHORE SCENTRAL CA.

AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM CUT OFF UPPER LOW NOW CROSSING NRN BAJA WILL
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE EWD THRU PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT
FALLS.

AIR MASS BOTH AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND SRN UPPER LOW IS QUITE DRY AND
INITIALLY NOT SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION
OF STRONG HEATING...FRONTAL LIFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES EXPECTED TO
BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG FRONTAL ZONE AS
FAR S AS NRN UT. ALSO THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER 00Z
AHEAD OF SRN UPPER LOW AS IT ENCOUNTERS SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING NWD THRU THE SRN HI PLAINS.

THERE WILL BE LOW TOPPED CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF PAC NW IN
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS AS LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP UNDER THE COLD
UPPER TROUGH. ACTUAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GENERALLY ISOLATED AND
UNORGANIZED GIVEN THE EXPECTED MINIMAL INSTABILITY.

.HALES/LEVIT.. 03/01/2008

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KMFR [011539]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 011539
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
739 AM PST SAT MAR 01 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW N BONANZA 42.20N 121.40W
03/01/2008 E0.5 INCH KLAMATH OR TRAINED SPOTTER

CURRENTLY 28 DEGREES AND SNOWING LIGHTLY WITH VISIBILITY
ESTIMATED AT 1.5 MILES AND WIND 5-10 MPH. GROUND COVERED
IN SNOW AFTER QUICK BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW ENDED AT 655 AM
PST.

&&

$$

WOODHEAD

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KCYS [011452]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 011452
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
752 AM MST SAT MAR 01 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0425 AM NON-TSTM WND GST ARLINGTON 41.59N 106.21W
03/01/2008 M69 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUST 47 MPH

&&

$$

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KAPX [011422]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 011422
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
922 AM EST SAT MAR 01 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM SNOW 8 NNE MANCELONA 45.01N 84.99W
03/01/2008 M3.0 INCH ANTRIM MI TRAINED SPOTTER

12 HR TOTAL THROUGH 9 AM. SNOWDEPTH 21 INCHES.

&&

$$

ADAM

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KAPX [011335]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 011335
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
835 AM EST SAT MAR 01 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW HESSEL 46.01N 84.42W
03/01/2008 M5.0 INCH MACKINAC MI TRAINED SPOTTER

18 HR TOTAL THROUGH 8 AM. SNOWDEPTH 18 INCHES.

&&

$$

ADAM

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0312

ACUS11 KWNS 011325
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011325
MEZ000-NHZ000-011830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0312
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0725 AM CST SAT MAR 01 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NH/MAINE

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 011325Z - 011830Z

MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF NH INTO
CENTRAL/COASTAL MAINE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALIZED RATES
OF 1-2 IN/HR.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED
CYCLONE...WITH A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW AS OF 13Z...SHIFTING EASTWARD
ACROSS FAR EASTERN ONTARIO AT DAYBREAK. AMPLE DOWNSTREAM PRESSURE
FALLS ARE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH MODERATE/LOCALLY
HEAVY SNOW BECOMING MORE COMMON OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/SOUTHERN NH INTO FAR WESTERN COASTAL MAINE.
AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY CLOSED THROUGH
MIDDAY...06Z NAM/GFS AND 09Z RUC/SREF GUIDANCE IMPLY AN INCREASING
SNOW INTENSITY THIS MORNING...WITH A DOWNSTREAM SPREAD OF
MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/COASTAL MAINE. WITHIN
THIS CORRIDOR...06Z NAM/09Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A SEVERAL
HOUR PERIOD OF AMPLE DEEP LAYER OMEGA COINCIDENT WITH A FAVORABLE
DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER. FURTHERMORE...INCREASINGLY STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES/MODEST SLANTWISE INSTABILITY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCED
SNOW RATES ACROSS CENTRAL/COASTAL MAINE BETWEEN 15Z-21Z...WITH
LOCALIZED RATES LIKELY TO REACH 1.5-2.0 IN/HR.

.GUYER.. 03/01/2008

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

..NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

43157110 43467184 44287143 45266990 45666807 45266742
44826745 44496873 43687049

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 011302
SWODY1
SPC AC 011259

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 AM CST SAT MAR 01 2008

VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE BUT INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE CONUS THIS PERIOD. PACIFIC NW TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE E/SE TO
THE RCKYS BY EARLY SUNDAY AS PLNS RIDGE MOVES E TO THE MS VLY IN
WAKE OF DEEPENING SYSTEM OVER NY/NEW ENGLAND. IN THE SRN BRANCH...
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT CLOSED LOW NOW NEAR YUM IS BECOMING
ABSORBED INTO PACIFIC NW TROUGH. THE SRN SYSTEM SHOULD REACH FAR W
TX AS AN OPEN WAVE BY 12Z SUNDAY.

..PAC NW THROUGH NRN RCKYS...
SEVERAL BANDS OF SCTD TO BKN CONVECTION...WITH ISOLD TSTMS...ARE
PRESENT ATTM OVER FAR WRN WA/ORE AND OFF THE WA/ORE CST...BENEATH
AXIS OF COLDEST AIR ALOFT /AOB -30 C AT 500 MB/ ASSOCIATED WITH
AFOREMENTIONED UPR TROUGH. DIURNAL HEATING OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OVER INTERIOR PARTS OF THE NWRN U.S./NRN RCKYS WILL RESULT IN A COOL
BUT VERY DEEP MIXED LAYER /SFC TO ABOVE 500 MB/ AS THE TROUGH
CONTINUES E/SE LATER TODAY. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION/POSSIBLE THUNDER AS SBCAPE INCREASES TO AROUND 200
J/KG...MAINLY THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY TO MID EVENING.

..S TX...
MORNING RAOBS CONTINUE TO SHOW EML CAP OVER S TX. E/SELY NEAR-SFC
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN THE LOWEST LAYER OVER REGION. BUT
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE WEAK OR NON-EXISTENT GIVEN /1/...SHORT
WAVE RIDGING ALOFT...AND /2/ CONTINUED DISSOLUTION OF SHALLOW FRONT
THAT MOVED INTO REGION YESTERDAY. THUS...WHILE SCTD SHOWERS MAY
FORM WITH DIURNAL HEATING...THEY SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED BENEATH THE
EML INVERSION AND NOT SUFFICIENTLY DEEPEN TO YIELD THUNDER. A FEW
STORMS COULD FORM LATER TODAY W OF THE RIO GRANDE IN UPSLOPE FLOW
OVER THE NRN MEXICO MOUNTAINS...BUT ANY SUCH ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
SW OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

..SRN NM/FAR W TX VERY LATE IN PERIOD...
A BAND OF CONVECTION/ISOLD TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER
SRN NM/NRN CHIHUAHUA...AS LEADING EDGE OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
WEAKENING SRN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES REGION.

.CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 03/01/2008

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KCYS [011250]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 011250
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
550 AM MST SAT MAR 01 2008

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 AM NON-TSTM WND GST ARLINGTON 41.59N 106.21W
03/01/2008 M55 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUST 39 MPH

&&

$$

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 010952
SWOD48
SPC AC 010951

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CST SAT MAR 01 2008

VALID 041200Z - 091200Z

..SVR WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SERN STATES...NRN/CNTRL FL AND
THE ERN CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY...

..DISCUSSION...
UPR LOW EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE MID-SOUTH EARLY ON TUE WILL EJECT
NEWD AND PHASE WITH THE POLAR BRANCH OVER THE LWR GRTLKS REGION BY
WED. ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL SUBSEQUENTLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES FROM
MIDDLE TN EARLY TUE AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY WED NIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP SEWD TO THE S OF THE LOW...REACHING THE ERN SEABOARD AND
CNTRL FL TUE NIGHT.

A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO ONGOING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY ON TUESDAY. STRONG SLY LLJ
WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE SERN STATES THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT THEN BEGIN TO MIGRATE NWD UP THE ATLC SEABOARD BY EVENING
AS THE PRIMARY CYCLONE EJECTS NEWD. GULF AND ATLC MOISTURE SHOULD
ADVECT INTO FL...MUCH OF GA AND THE ERN PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS...
LIKELY MAINTAINING THE SQUALL LINE. MAGNITUDE OF LOW/MID-LVL FLOW
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR BOWS AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS EXTREME ERN AL INTO GA AND MUCH OF NRN FL THROUGH LATE AFTN.
THE SQUALL LINE WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN WITH NRN EXTENT DUE TO LESS
INSTABILITY...AND WITH SRN EXTENT LATE IN THE AFTN AS OVERALL MASS
CONVERGENCE/SHEAR DIMINISH.

OTHERWISE...LATEST ECMWF/GFS ARE QUITE VARIED ON THE HANDLING OF THE
NEXT TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE PLAINS IN THE WED-FRI TIME
FRAME. AT LEAST HALF OF THE GEFS PERTURBATIONS SUPPORT THE ECMWF
IDEA OF CLOSING OFF ANOTHER LOW AND DROPPING IT SWD INTO MEXICO.
THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE/STRONGER GFS. AT THIS
POINT IN TIME...GIVEN POOR MODEL PREDICTABILITY...THE REMAINDER OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD SVR RISKS ARE UNCERTAIN.

.RACY.. 03/01/2008

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