SWODY1
SPC AC 011952
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0152 PM CST SAT MAR 01 2008
VALID 012000Z - 021200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
COLD...MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL UNDERGO FURTHER
AMPLIFICATION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHILE DIGGING SEWD TOWARD
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CNTRL
MT SWWD TO LOW PRESSURE OVER NRN UT AND INTO CNTRL NV AS OF 18Z WILL
CONTINUE EWD/SEWD IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM. VISIBLE
SATELLITE INDICATES CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ATTENDANT TO THE
MIDLEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...HOWEVER SOME DEEPER CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONT OVER NRN UT AS WELL AS W OF
THE DENSER CLOUD SHIELD OVER WRN ID.
CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT POCKETS OF WEAK
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH ISOLATED...DIURNAL STORMS POSSIBLE OWING
TO OROGRAPHICS AND DYNAMIC FORCING WITH UPPER TROUGH. SOME SMALL
HAIL OR GRAUPEL MAY ACCOMPANY THE MORE INTENSE STORMS.
..SRN NM/FAR WRN TX...
SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TSTM OR TWO WILL EXIST LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITHIN ZONE OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD
OF OPENING UPPER WAVE WHICH WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS NWRN MEXICO.
..SRN/CNTRL TX...
A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON OVER SRN AND CNTRL TX ALONG AND TO THE S OF FRONTOLYTIC
BOUNDARY ANALYZED EARLIER THIS MORNING FROM NEAR THE METROPLEX EWD
INTO NRN OR CNTRL LA. MODIFICATION OF RUC SOUNDINGS FOR CURRENT
SURFACE CONDITIONS SUGGESTS THAT EML CENTERED AROUND 700 MB MAY
STILL BE INHIBITIVE TO DEEPER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE NOTABLE DRYING/SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION PER WV IMAGERY.
THEREFORE...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT
POTENTIAL FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS QUITE LIMITED.
.MEAD.. 03/01/2008
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