KLKN [080141]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KLKN 080141
LSRLKN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
541 PM PST SAT FEB 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 AM HEAVY SNOW 19 WNW RUTH 39.36N 115.33W
02/07/2009 M6.5 INCH WHITE PINE NV CO-OP OBSERVER

MOORMAN RANCH COOP - 6539 FEET MSL

0700 AM SNOW 29 S KINGSTON 38.78N 117.17W
02/07/2009 M1.0 INCH NYE NV CO-OP OBSERVER

SMOKEY VALLEY COOP - 5647 FEET MSL

0700 AM SNOW S RUBY LAKE 40.20N 115.49W
02/07/2009 M4.4 INCH ELKO NV CO-OP OBSERVER

RUBY LAKE NWR COOP - 6019 FEET MSL

0700 AM HEAVY SNOW 1 NNW EUREKA 39.52N 115.96W
02/07/2009 M6.5 INCH EUREKA NV CO-OP OBSERVER

EUREKA COOP - 6430 FEET MSL

0720 AM SNOW 20 WSW KINGSTON 39.06N 117.41W
02/07/2009 M1.3 INCH NYE NV CO-OP OBSERVER

REESE RIVER COOP - 6413 FEET MSL

0730 AM HEAVY SNOW 5 W BAKER 39.01N 114.22W
02/07/2009 M7.0 INCH WHITE PINE NV CO-OP OBSERVER

GREAT BASIN NATIONAL PARK COOP - 6850 FEET MSL

0800 AM SNOW NE MCGILL 39.40N 114.78W
02/07/2009 M4.0 INCH WHITE PINE NV CO-OP OBSERVER

MCGILL COOP - 6270 FEET MSL

0800 AM HEAVY SNOW 28 SSW PINTO SUMMIT 39.10N 116.20W
02/07/2009 M7.5 INCH NYE NV CO-OP OBSERVER

INDIAN CREEK RANCH COOP - 7460 FEET MSL

0800 AM HEAVY SNOW SSW RUTH 39.28N 114.99W
02/07/2009 M6.7 INCH WHITE PINE NV CO-OP OBSERVER

RUTH COOP - 6858 FEET MSL

0830 AM SNOW 1 NW LUND 38.87N 115.02W
02/07/2009 M3.0 INCH WHITE PINE NV CO-OP OBSERVER

LUND COOP - 5546 FEET MSL

1000 AM HEAVY SNOW 4 NE ELY 39.30N 114.83W
02/07/2009 M6.5 INCH WHITE PINE NV OFFICIAL NWS OBS

ELY AIRPORT SNOW OBSERVER - 6242 FEET MSL - TOTAL SINCE
4PM YESTERDAY

1115 AM HEAVY SNOW 6 WNW GILLMAN SPRINGS 39.29N 117.11W
02/07/2009 E7.0 INCH LANDER NV MESONET

BIG CREEK SUM SNOTEL - 8700 FEET MSL

1115 AM HEAVY SNOW 7 NE EUREKA 39.56N 115.84W
02/07/2009 E7.4 INCH EUREKA NV MESONET

DIAMOND PEAK SNOTEL - 7400 FEET MSL

1115 AM HEAVY SNOW 31 S LUND 38.41N 115.01W
02/07/2009 M8.5 INCH NYE NV PUBLIC

MT MEADOWS RANCH - ELEVATION UNKNOWN

1115 AM HEAVY SNOW 16 WSW CRESCENT VALLEY 40.36N 116.86W
02/07/2009 E7.3 INCH LANDER NV MESONET

LEWIS PEAK SNOTEL - 8000 FEET MSL

&&

$$

RCM

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 080030
SWODY1
SPC AC 080028

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0628 PM CST SAT FEB 07 2009

VALID 080100Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...
AT 00Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED LOW CENTERED ALONG THE
SRN CA COAST...WITH SEVERAL SMALLER VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND
THIS LOW. THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EWD TONIGHT REACHING THE LOWER
CO RIVER VALLEY AS AN UPSTREAM PACIFIC TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY
SEWD TOWARD THE WEST COAST. REGIONAL RADARS/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATED A CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED...THOUGH SPORADIC...
TSTMS EXTENDING FROM PARTS OF SRN CA/SWRN AZ NWD INTO SRN NV. THE
MORE PERSISTENT ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED NWD FROM SWRN AZ...WHERE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE GULF OF CA HAS ADVECTED LOWER 50S
SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO SW AZ. THIS TREND SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /AROUND -25 C AT 500
MB/ AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREAD EWD WITH THE UPPER LOW
ATOP THE MOIST AXIS. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND WITHIN
EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET EXTENDING INTO SWRN STATES WILL MAINTAIN
POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFTS TO REACH TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR CHARGE
SEPARATION/LIGHTNING PRODUCTION. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...A
FEW OF THE PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL...
BUT OVERALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW GIVEN THE AVAILABILITY
OF WEAK INSTABILITY /MUCAPE AOB 500 J/KG/.

..PETERS.. 02/08/2009

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KVEF [072329]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 072329
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
328 PM PST SAT FEB 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0324 PM FLASH FLOOD N FURNACE CREEK 36.45N 116.85W
02/07/2009 INYO CA PARK/FOREST SRVC

MOST ROADS IN DEATH VALLEY NATIONAL PARK ARE CLOSED DUE
TO FLOODING FROM PROLONGED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.
EVACUATIONS ARE TAKING PLACE IN LOW LYING AREAS WITH
DEBRIS AND WATER UP TO 8 INCHES DEEP FLOWING ACROSS
ROADS.

&&

$$

JH

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KLKN [072220]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KLKN 072220
LSRLKN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
220 PM PST SAT FEB 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 AM HEAVY SNOW 19 WNW RUTH 39.36N 115.33W
02/07/2009 M6.5 INCH WHITE PINE NV CO-OP OBSERVER

MOORMAN RANCH COOP - 6539 FEET MSL

0700 AM SNOW S RUBY LAKE 40.20N 115.49W
02/07/2009 M4.4 INCH ELKO NV CO-OP OBSERVER

RUBY LAKE NWR COOP - 6019 FEET MSL

0700 AM HEAVY SNOW 1 NNW EUREKA 39.52N 115.96W
02/07/2009 M6.5 INCH EUREKA NV CO-OP OBSERVER

EUREKA COOP - 6430 FEET MSL

0720 AM SNOW 20 WSW KINGSTON 39.06N 117.41W
02/07/2009 M1.3 INCH NYE NV CO-OP OBSERVER

REESE RIVER COOP - 6413 FEET MSL

0730 AM HEAVY SNOW 5 W BAKER 39.01N 114.22W
02/07/2009 M7.0 INCH WHITE PINE NV CO-OP OBSERVER

GREAT BASIN NATIONAL PARK COOP - 6850 FEET MSL

0800 AM HEAVY SNOW 28 SSW PINTO SUMMIT 39.10N 116.20W
02/07/2009 M7.5 INCH NYE NV CO-OP OBSERVER

INDIAN CREEK RANCH COOP - 7460 FEET MSL

0800 AM SNOW NE MCGILL 39.40N 114.78W
02/07/2009 M4.0 INCH WHITE PINE NV CO-OP OBSERVER

MCGILL COOP - 6270 FEET MSL

0800 AM HEAVY SNOW SSW RUTH 39.28N 114.99W
02/07/2009 M6.7 INCH WHITE PINE NV CO-OP OBSERVER

RUTH COOP - 6858 FEET MSL

0830 AM SNOW 1 NW LUND 38.87N 115.02W
02/07/2009 M3.0 INCH WHITE PINE NV CO-OP OBSERVER

LUND COOP - 5546 FEET MSL

1000 AM HEAVY SNOW 4 NE ELY 39.30N 114.83W
02/07/2009 M6.5 INCH WHITE PINE NV OFFICIAL NWS OBS

ELY AIRPORT SNOW OBSERVER - 6242 FEET MSL - TOTAL SINCE
4PM YESTERDAY

1115 AM HEAVY SNOW 16 WSW CRESCENT VALLEY 40.36N 116.86W
02/07/2009 E7.3 INCH LANDER NV MESONET

LEWIS PEAK SNOTEL - 8000 FEET MSL

1115 AM HEAVY SNOW 6 WNW GILLMAN SPRINGS 39.29N 117.11W
02/07/2009 E7.0 INCH LANDER NV MESONET

BIG CREEK SUM SNOTEL - 8700 FEET MSL

1115 AM HEAVY SNOW 31 S LUND 38.41N 115.01W
02/07/2009 M8.5 INCH NYE NV PUBLIC

MT MEADOWS RANCH - ELEVATION UNKNOWN

1115 AM HEAVY SNOW 7 NE EUREKA 39.56N 115.84W
02/07/2009 E7.4 INCH EUREKA NV MESONET

DIAMOND PEAK SNOTEL - 7400 FEET MSL

&&

$$

RCM

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KLKN [072050]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KLKN 072050
LSRLKN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1250 PM PST SAT FEB 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 AM HEAVY SNOW 19 WNW RUTH 39.36N 115.33W
02/07/2009 M6.5 INCH WHITE PINE NV CO-OP OBSERVER

MOORMAN RANCH COOP - 6539 FEET MSL

0700 AM HEAVY SNOW 1 NNW EUREKA 39.52N 115.96W
02/07/2009 M6.5 INCH EUREKA NV CO-OP OBSERVER

EUREKA COOP - 6430 FEET MSL

0700 AM SNOW S RUBY LAKE 40.20N 115.49W
02/07/2009 M4.4 INCH ELKO NV CO-OP OBSERVER

RUBY LAKE NWR COOP - 6019 FEET MSL

0720 AM SNOW 20 WSW KINGSTON 39.06N 117.41W
02/07/2009 M1.3 INCH NYE NV CO-OP OBSERVER

REESE RIVER COOP - 6413 FEET MSL

0730 AM HEAVY SNOW 5 W BAKER 39.01N 114.22W
02/07/2009 M7.0 INCH WHITE PINE NV CO-OP OBSERVER

GREAT BASIN NATIONAL PARK COOP - 6850 FEET MSL

0800 AM SNOW NE MCGILL 39.40N 114.78W
02/07/2009 M4.0 INCH WHITE PINE NV CO-OP OBSERVER

MCGILL COOP - 6270 FEET MSL

0800 AM HEAVY SNOW SSW RUTH 39.28N 114.99W
02/07/2009 M6.7 INCH WHITE PINE NV CO-OP OBSERVER

RUTH COOP - 6858 FEET MSL

0830 AM SNOW 1 NW LUND 38.87N 115.02W
02/07/2009 M3.0 INCH WHITE PINE NV CO-OP OBSERVER

LUND COOP - 5546 FEET MSL

1000 AM HEAVY SNOW 4 NE ELY 39.30N 114.83W
02/07/2009 M6.5 INCH WHITE PINE NV OFFICIAL NWS OBS

ELY AIRPORT SNOW OBSERVER - 6242 FEET MSL - TOTAL SINCE
4PM YESTERDAY

1115 AM HEAVY SNOW 6 WNW GILLMAN SPRINGS 39.29N 117.11W
02/07/2009 E7.0 INCH LANDER NV MESONET

BIG CREEK SUM SNOTEL

1115 AM HEAVY SNOW 16 WSW CRESCENT VALLEY 40.36N 116.86W
02/07/2009 E7.3 INCH LANDER NV MESONET

LEWIS PEAK SNOTEL

1115 AM HEAVY SNOW 31 S LUND 38.41N 115.01W
02/07/2009 M8.5 INCH NYE NV PUBLIC

MT MEADOWS RANCH

1115 AM HEAVY SNOW 7 NE EUREKA 39.56N 115.84W
02/07/2009 E7.4 INCH EUREKA NV MESONET

DIAMOND PEAK SNOTEL

&&

$$

MFITZSIM

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 071951
SWODY1
SPC AC 071948

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0148 PM CST SAT FEB 07 2009

VALID 072000Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN CA...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CENTERED JUST OFF THE COAST FROM SRN CA. AN AXIS OF MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR IS EVIDENT NORTHEAST OF THE LOW FROM THE SRN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
EXTENDING SSEWD INTO THE COASTAL RANGES OF SRN CA. SOME LIMITED SFC
HEATING HAS OCCURRED ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AND RUC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS
WEAK INSTABILITY IS PRESENT WITH SBCAPE VALUES IN THE 250 TO 500
J/KG RANGE. THIS ALONG WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING AS
FAR NNWWD AS FRESNO AND STOCKTON. HOWEVER...THE GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIST ACROSS THE SRN CA COASTAL
RANGES AND MOJAVE DESERT WHERE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS STRONG ON
THE NWRN SIDE OF A 80 TO 95 KT MID-LEVEL JET. THE STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL
HAIL THREAT ACROSS SRN CA AND FAR SW AZ LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 02/07/2009

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KREV [071907]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KREV 071907
LSRREV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1107 AM PST SAT FEB 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM SNOW LEE VINING 37.96N 119.12W
02/07/2009 M11.0 INCH MONO CA CO-OP OBSERVER

10.5 INCHES NEW SNOW IN LEE VINING. 24 HOUR TOTAL.
ELEVATION 6800 FEET.

&&

$$

HOON

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KLKN [071842]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KLKN 071842
LSRLKN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1041 AM PST SAT FEB 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 AM HEAVY SNOW 19 WNW RUTH 39.36N 115.33W
02/07/2009 M6.5 INCH WHITE PINE NV CO-OP OBSERVER

MOORMAN RANCH COOP - 6539 FEET MSL

0700 AM SNOW S RUBY LAKE 40.20N 115.49W
02/07/2009 M4.4 INCH ELKO NV CO-OP OBSERVER

RUBY LAKE NWR COOP - 6019 FEET MSL

0700 AM HEAVY SNOW 1 NNW EUREKA 39.52N 115.96W
02/07/2009 M6.5 INCH EUREKA NV CO-OP OBSERVER

EUREKA COOP - 6430 FEET MSL

0720 AM SNOW 20 WSW KINGSTON 39.06N 117.41W
02/07/2009 M1.3 INCH NYE NV CO-OP OBSERVER

REESE RIVER COOP - 6413 FEET MSL

0730 AM HEAVY SNOW 5 W BAKER 39.01N 114.22W
02/07/2009 M7.0 INCH WHITE PINE NV CO-OP OBSERVER

GREAT BASIN NATIONAL PARK COOP - 6850 FEET MSL

0800 AM HEAVY SNOW SSW RUTH 39.28N 114.99W
02/07/2009 M6.7 INCH WHITE PINE NV CO-OP OBSERVER

RUTH COOP - 6858 FEET MSL

0800 AM SNOW NE MCGILL 39.40N 114.78W
02/07/2009 M4.0 INCH WHITE PINE NV CO-OP OBSERVER

MCGILL COOP - 6270 FEET MSL

0830 AM SNOW 1 NW LUND 38.87N 115.02W
02/07/2009 M3.0 INCH WHITE PINE NV CO-OP OBSERVER

LUND COOP - 5546 FEET MSL

1000 AM HEAVY SNOW 4 NE ELY 39.30N 114.83W
02/07/2009 M6.5 INCH WHITE PINE NV OFFICIAL NWS OBS

ELY AIRPORT SNOW OBSERVER - 6242 FEET MSL - TOTAL SINCE
4PM YESTERDAY

&&

$$

RCM

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KLKN [071840]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KLKN 071840
LSRLKN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1039 AM PST SAT FEB 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 AM HEAVY SNOW 19 WNW RUTH 39.36N 115.33W
02/07/2009 M6.5 INCH WHITE PINE NV CO-OP OBSERVER

MOORMAN RANCH COOP - 6539 FEET MSL

0700 AM HEAVY SNOW 1 NNW EUREKA 39.52N 115.96W
02/07/2009 M6.5 INCH EUREKA NV CO-OP OBSERVER

EUREKA COOP - 6430 FEET MSL

0700 AM SNOW S RUBY LAKE 40.20N 115.49W
02/07/2009 M4.4 INCH ELKO NV CO-OP OBSERVER

RUBY LAKE NWR COOP - 6019 FEET MSL

0720 AM SNOW 20 WSW KINGSTON 39.06N 117.41W
02/07/2009 M1.3 INCH NYE NV CO-OP OBSERVER

REESE RIVER COOP - 6413 FEET MSL

0730 AM HEAVY SNOW 5 W BAKER 39.01N 114.22W
02/07/2009 M7.0 INCH WHITE PINE NV CO-OP OBSERVER

GREAT BASIN NATIONAL PARK COOP - 6850 FEET MSL

0800 AM HEAVY SNOW SSW RUTH 39.28N 114.99W
02/07/2009 M6.7 INCH WHITE PINE NV CO-OP OBSERVER

RUTH COOP - 6858 FEET MSL

0800 AM SNOW NE MCGILL 39.40N 114.78W
02/07/2009 M4.0 INCH WHITE PINE NV CO-OP OBSERVER

MCGILL COOP - 6270 FEET MSL

0830 AM SNOW 1 NW LUND 38.87N 115.02W
02/07/2009 M3.0 INCH WHITE PINE NV CO-OP OBSERVER

LUND COOP - 5546 FEET MSL

&&

$$

RCM

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KREV [071828]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KREV 071828
LSRREV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1028 AM PST SAT FEB 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW MAMMOTH LAKES 37.64N 118.96W
02/07/2009 M5.0 INCH MONO CA CO-OP OBSERVER

5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW LAST 24 HOURS. MAMMOTH RANGER
STATION. ELEVATION 7800 FEET MSL.

0800 AM SNOW 1 WNW MAMMOTH LAKES 37.65N 118.98W
02/07/2009 M12.0 INCH MONO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

1 FOOT NEW SNOW OVER LAST 36 HOURS AT MAMMOTH MOUNTAIN
8200 FEET. 8 TO 9 INCHES NEW SNOW AT MAMMOTH LAKES.

&&

$$

HOON

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KGRR [071802]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 071802
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
102 PM EST SAT FEB 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1249 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 E KENTWOOD 42.90N 85.51W
02/07/2009 M41 MPH KENT MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

THIS IS A MEASURED WIND GUST RECORDED AT THE GERALD R.
FORD INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

&&

$$

HOVING

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KLOX [071756]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KLOX 071756
LSRLOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
956 AM PST SAT FEB 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0945 AM WATER SPOUT 11 SSE LONG BEACH 33.64N 118.09W
02/07/2009 PZZ655 CA PUBLIC

MARINER REPORTED A WATERSPOUT TO THE U.S. COAST GUARD.

&&

$$

BOLDT

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KSGX [071739]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 071739
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
938 AM PST SAT FEB 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0920 AM WATER SPOUT 20 W ENCINITAS 33.05N 117.61W
02/07/2009 PZZ750 CA TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED A WATERSPOUT OFF THE COAST.

&&

$$

SMALL

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KLOX [071732]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KLOX 071732
LSRLOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
932 AM PST SAT FEB 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM WATER SPOUT 8 S SAN PEDRO 33.63N 118.33W
02/07/2009 PZZ655 CA COAST GUARD

CATALINA EXPRESS RELAYED REPORT TO THE U.S. COAST GUARD
OF THREE WATERSPOUTS SOUTH OF THE LONG BEACH HARBOR.

&&

$$

BOLDT

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KSGX [071720]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 071720
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
919 AM PST SAT FEB 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0916 AM HEAVY RAIN SEAL BEACH 33.76N 118.08W
02/07/2009 U0.00 INCH ORANGE CA NEWSPAPER

GARY ROBBINS REPORTED A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN.
VERY DARK SKY TO THE WEST.

&&

$$

SMALL

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 071716
SWODY2
SPC AC 071713

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1113 AM CST SAT FEB 07 2009

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SE NM AND
WEST TX...

...SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SRN CA TONIGHT IS FORECAST TO OPEN
AND DRIFT ENEWD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SUNDAY. THE NRN
EXTENSION OF A 75 TO 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TX BY LATE
AFTERNOON. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
INCREASE SUNDAY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WHICH COMBINED WITH FOCUSED
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR A SFC LOW SHOULD RESULT IN A LINE OF
CONVECTION INITIATING LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN NEW MEXICO
EXPANDING EWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE DURING THE EVENING.

AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SRN HIGH PLAINS....A 40 TO 50 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ORGANIZE HELPING TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE NWD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS SUNDAY. SFC DEWPOINTS APPEAR LIKELY TO REACH
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S F FROM THE LOW-ROLLING PLAINS OF WCNTRL
TX EXTENDING WWD ONTO THE CAPROCK ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TX. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ON THE CAPROCK BY LATE AFTERNOON
WHERE SOME MODEL FORECASTS SHOW 500 TO 750 J/KG OF SBCAPE BY 00Z
MONDAY. AS CONVECTION INITIATES ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND COLD AIR ALOFT /500 MB TEMPS OF
-16 TO -18C/ SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A HAIL THREAT. THE HAIL THREAT
COULD EXTEND AS FAR NORTH AS ERN CO AND WRN KS WHERE STRONG
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND ADEQUATE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST.
HOWEVER...THE GREATER THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO EXIST FROM AMARILLO
SWD TO NEAR MIDLAND WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER
RESULTING IN STRONGER INSTABILITY.

CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM...MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BEEN
GRADUALLY SLOWING THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH EACH
RUN AND THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC CONCERNING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
SEVERE THREAT. IF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS DELAYED ACROSS WEST TX
UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE DECREASING...THE
THE SEVERE THREAT COULD REMAIN MORE ISOLATED THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.

..BROYLES.. 02/07/2009

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KTFX [071659]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 071659
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
959 AM MST SAT FEB 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0823 AM SNOW 6 E BELT 47.39N 110.80W
02/07/2009 M7.5 INCH CASCADE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

NEW OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL.

&&

$$

CZELZER

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KGRR [071625]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 071625
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1125 AM EST SAT FEB 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1055 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 SSE SOUTH HAVEN 42.35N 86.25W
02/07/2009 M45 MPH VAN BUREN MI AWOS

THIS IS A MEASURED WIND GUST RECORDED AT THE SOUTH HAVEN
AREA REGIONAL AIRPORT.

&&

$$

HOVING

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KREV [071624]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KREV 071624
LSRREV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
824 AM PST SAT FEB 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1136 PM SNOW TOMS PLACE 37.56N 118.69W
02/06/2009 M3.0 INCH MONO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

3.0 INCHES OF SNOWFALL BETWEEN 630PM AND 1130PM AT TOMS
PLACE IN MONO COUNTY. ELEVATION 7500 FT.

0700 AM SNOW YERINGTON 38.99N 119.16W
02/07/2009 M2.0 INCH LYON NV TRAINED SPOTTER

2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW OVERNIGHT IN YERINGTON, NV.

&&

$$

HOON

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 071614
SWODY1
SPC AC 071611

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1011 AM CST SAT FEB 07 2009

VALID 071630Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OFF THE CA COAST.
COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF SOUTHERN CA...WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
DEEPER CLOUD-BEARING LAYER AND GREATER POTENTIAL FOR CHARGE
SEPARATION TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. NEVERTHELESS...MUCAPE
VALUES WILL REMAIN AOB 500 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK OVER
THIS REGION. HOWEVER...COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT
MULTICELL CONVECTION CAPABLE OF HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. ACTIVITY
MAY SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST AZ AFTER DARK. ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO MARGINAL
NATURE OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND WEAK WINDS BELOW 600 MB.

..HART.. 02/07/2009

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KGRR [071500]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 071500
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1000 AM EST SAT FEB 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NNW LUDINGTON STATE P 44.06N 86.52W
02/07/2009 M40.00 MPH MASON MI AWOS

THIS IS A MEASURED WIND GUST AT BIG SABLE POINT.

0853 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 S HOLLAND 42.75N 86.11W
02/07/2009 M52.00 MPH ALLEGAN MI ASOS

THIS IS A MEASURED WIND GUST AT TULIP CITY AIRPORT.

&&

$$

HOVING

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KVEF [071455]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 071455
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
654 AM PST SAT FEB 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM HEAVY SNOW MT. CHARLESTON 36.28N 115.62W
02/06/2009 M8.0 INCH CLARK NV CO-OP OBSERVER

8 INCHES OF NEW SNOW WAS MEASURED AT THE MOUNT CHARLESTON
FIRE STATION IN KYLE CANYON.

0800 PM HEAVY SNOW ASPENDELL 37.23N 118.58W
02/06/2009 M8.0 INCH INYO CA CO-OP OBSERVER

8 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FELL AT ASPENDELL BETWEEN 8 AM AND 8
PM PST.

&&

$$

JADAIR

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 071247
SWODY1
SPC AC 071244

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0644 AM CST SAT FEB 07 2009

VALID 071300Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN CA/NV INTO WRN AZ THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE CLOSED MID-UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE SRN CA COAST THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EWD TO WRN AZ BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A BELT OF
PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL ASCENT AND MOISTENING /DRIVEN LARGELY BY
DIFFERENTIAL CVA IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET/ WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS LOW EWD ACROSS SRN CA TO THE LOWER CO RIVER
TODAY...AND INTO CENTRAL AZ BY EARLY SUNDAY. STEEPENING LOW-MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH THE -25 C 500 MB COLD CORE WILL SPREAD INLAND
THROUGH THE PERIOD...SUPPORTING WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINTS NEAR 50 F/ AND PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL
DURING THE DAY COULD SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL ACROSS
EXTREME SRN CA.

...ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS...
THE NWD RETURN OF A MODIFYING CP AIR MASS IS ONGOING FROM THE WRN
GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SRN PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE MARGINAL BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S/ AND RELATIVELY WARM
TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PRECLUDE DEEP CONVECTION.

..THOMPSON.. 02/07/2009

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 070958
SWOD48
SPC AC 070957

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CST SAT FEB 07 2009

VALID 101200Z - 151200Z

...SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL INTO PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THIS COMING TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...

THE SECOND IN A SERIES OF SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSES...WITHIN A
PROMINENT SOUTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT POLAR WESTERLIES...IS PROGGED TO
RAPIDLY LIFT OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS STATES DURING THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PORTION OF THE COMING WORK WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS WILL SUPPORT STRONG NEW SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AS IT TRACKS TO THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES AT A MORE SOUTHERN LATITUDE THAN THE PRIOR SYSTEM.
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE GULF OF MEXICO...COUPLED WITH A CONTINUED
GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
INCREASING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...INCLUDING A CONSIDERABLE RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS. THIS MAY COMMENCE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHERE A SIZABLE NUMBER OF MREF
MEMBERS INDICATE MIXED LAYER CAPE MAY APPROACH 1000 J/KG IN THE
PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. GIVEN
INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION...AN EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE APPEARS POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT THE MID-LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CYCLONE
WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD INTO AND THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. WHILE THIS WOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING
LARGE-SCALE LIFT ACROSS THE GULF STATES...STRONG WESTERLY MEAN FLOW
IN EXCESS OF 50 KT MAY ADVECT THE SQUALL LINE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EASTERN GULF STATES WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS...BEFORE ACTIVITY
WEAKENS IN A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY THAT A
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY CUT-OFF NORTHWARD GULF MOISTURE
RETURN...SEVERE POTENTIAL WITHIN THE ZONE OF STRONG FORCING...IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE CYCLONE AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...IS TOO LOW OR UNCERTAIN TO DELINEATE A SEVERE THREAT.

ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE
STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
BUT...THE SPREAD AMONG MREF MEMBERS BECOMES TOO LARGE TO CONFIDENTLY
DETERMINE ADDITIONAL SEVERE POTENTIAL.

..KERR.. 02/07/2009

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 070812
SWODY3
SPC AC 070809

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0209 AM CST SAT FEB 07 2009

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
WITHIN A STRONG SOUTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT POLAR WESTERLIES...SHORT TO
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT OF THE PLATEAU REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND.
BY 12Z MONDAY...THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO REACH THE SOUTH CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...BEFORE CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY TUESDAY...AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. MODELS INDICATE THAT
STRONG CYCLOGENESIS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LEAD IMPULSE ...WITH
SUBSTANTIAL DEEPENING OF THE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE AS IT
PROGRESSES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY REGION
DURING THE DAY MONDAY...TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL CANADIAN NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE RIDGING.

...PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
DESPITE AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...NEGLIGIBLE TO WEAK
WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. CONSIDERABLE EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO RESTRICT DAYTIME HEATING NEAR AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE. AT THE SAME TIME... A RELATIVELY
WARM OR WARMING MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE
RIDGING IN ITS WAKE LIKELY WILL CAP SLOWLY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...IN A RETURN FLOW ACROSS EAST TEXAS TOWARD THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS.

HOWEVER...A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY MAY EXIST FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION WITHIN A DEVELOPING DRY SLOT...IN ADVANCE OF THE
MID-LEVEL COLD CORE...ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KANSAS
INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF
250-500 J/KG IS POSSIBLE. WHILE RATHER WEAK...IN THE PRESENCE OF
STRONG SHEAR AND FAVORABLE FORCING...THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW TOPPED STORMS...EITHER ISOLATED SUPERCELLS OR A
SHORT BROKEN SQUALL LINE. IF THIS OCCURS...LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY COULD SUPPORT
LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WITH THE RISK FOR TORNADOES/DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...BEFORE STORMS DIMINISH BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

..KERR.. 02/07/2009

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0068

ACUS11 KWNS 070703
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070703
UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-071000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0068
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0103 AM CST SAT FEB 07 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL SIERRAS AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT
BASIN

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 070703Z - 071000Z

A CORRIDOR OF INTERMITTENT HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES AROUND AN INCH/HR
WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN THROUGH 12Z.
LOCALLY HIGHER RATES UP TO 2 INCHES/HR WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL SIERRAS.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DENOTES A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT IMPINGING UPON
THE SIERRAS. 06Z ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTED LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL NV. WIND PROFILES FROM
ESX AND LRX VWP/S SUPPORT THIS NOTION WITH PRONOUNCED VEERING IN THE
0-4KM AGL LAYER. WITHIN THIS HIGHLIGHTED ZONE...AN ELY COMPONENT TO
THE FLOW THROUGH 500MB WILL ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC LIFT ON THE E SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL SIERRAS. SUBTLE MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS ROTATING
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW /CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER COASTAL
AREAS OF CENTRAL CA/...WILL PROVIDE AMPLE FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION. ADDITIONALLY...LAPSE RATES MAY STEEPEN FURTHER
WITH TIME IN LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW...SUGGESTING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES OVER PARTS OF THE
SIERRAS.

..SMITH.. 02/07/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...SLC...VEF...LKN...REV...HNX...STO...

LAT...LON 39021457 38591722 38051835 37491846 37361900 38171989
38551994 39101879 39581724 39941544 40131430 40041379
39351368 39101415 39021457

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KAMA [070635]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 070635
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1235 AM CST SAT FEB 07 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 PM WILDFIRE 1 NNW OPTIMA 36.77N 101.36W
02/06/2009 E500 ACRE TEXAS OK FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

WILDFIRE BEGAN JUST WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 54 AND U.S.
HIGHWAY 64 JUST NORTHWEST OF OPTIMA. NO STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE OR INJURIES HAVE BEEN REPORTED. ACREAGE BURNED IS
ONLY A PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA0901012

$$

KJS

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 070540
SWODY2
SPC AC 070539

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1139 PM CST FRI FEB 06 2009

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT ACROSS PARTS
OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS....

...SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF DISTINCT BELTS OF STRONGER POLAR WESTERLIES ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST ACROSS THE U.S. THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND BEYOND.
AND...MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THIS REGIME WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE PROMINENT BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE
REMAINS VERY SIMILAR CONCERNING ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE
DEVELOPMENTS...PARTICULARLY WITH A LEAD IMPULSE ALREADY BEGINNING TO
DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND NORTHWEST MEXICO. BY
SUNDAY...THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO ACCELERATE OUT OF THE PLATEAU
REGION...AS ANOTHER STRONGER UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS TOWARD
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT STRONG SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 50-70 KT SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...AS A 90 KT 500 MB
JET STREAK PROPAGATES FROM THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU THROUGH THE
RED RIVER VALLEY.

DESPITE AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN FOR STRONG/
SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S...A
RECENT SERIES OF COLD INTRUSIONS HAS SUBSTANTIALLY IMPACTED THE
LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH A MODEST
RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE IS ALREADY UNDERWAY OVER PARTS OF THE
WESTERN GULF INTO SOUTH/EAST TEXAS...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE QUALITY OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY NOT IMPROVE MUCH AS ONLY A
SLOW GULF BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION PROCEEDS THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL HAMPER DESTABILIZATION...WHILE
PROBABLY ALSO LIMITING THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
LOW CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN BENEATH A DRY
CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RESTRICT
SURFACE HEATING AS FAR WEST AS THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND PANHANDLE
REGION. BUT...EVEN WITH PEAK AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 50S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE STEEP ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER
BASED CAPE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH THE
KAIN-FRITSCH PARAMETERIZATION INDICATE CAPE AS HIGH AS 750 J/KG OR
SO...BUT SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST VALUES OF 250-500
J/KG ARE MORE LIKELY. EVEN SO...WITH STRONG FORCING...THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG OR AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT ADVANCING
TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

CONVECTION MAY INITIATE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN
NEW MEXICO...WHERE EARLY STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME
LARGE HAIL. BUT...A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING NARROW SQUALL LINE BY SUNDAY
EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY PRIMARILY A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT...AS IT ADVANCES INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH
PLAINS...WHERE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LARGE
BENEATH STRONG SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW.

AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING LIFTS TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION WHETHER
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...DUE TO RELATIVELY WARM MID- LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...EVEN IN THE PRESENCE OF INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...AT LEAST LOW TOPPED CONVECTION PROBABLY WILL
CONTINUE...PERHAPS WITH A LINGERING RISK FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

..KERR.. 02/07/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 070531
SWODY1
SPC AC 070527

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 PM CST FRI FEB 06 2009

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN CA THROUGH CNTRL AND SRN AZ...

CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE SSEWD THROUGH SRN CA TODAY...BUT WILL
EVENTUALLY TURN EWD...REACHING AZ SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL VORTICITY
MAXIMA WILL ROTATE THROUGH THIS FEATURE NORTH OF A STRONG MID LEVEL
JET LOCATED ON SRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW. COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WITH -24C TO -26C AT 500 MB WILL SUPPORT 7-7.5 C/KM MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. AREAS OF ENHANCED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORTICITY
MAXIMA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WITH
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING SEWD THROUGH SRN CA DURING THE DAY. POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR A FEW CLOUD BREAKS AND MODEST WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER NORTH OF THE UPPER JET AXIS WHERE THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL
RESIDE. MUCAPE COULD APPROACH 400-500 J/KG OVER SRN CA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF UPPER JET
AXIS FOR A THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WHERE 40+ KT BULK SHEAR
MAY SUPPORT ROTATION WITHIN A FEW UPDRAFTS. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
WEAK WITHIN CORE OF THE UPPER LOW...BUT LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY
MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT OF SMALL HAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP EWD INTO SRN AZ SATURDAY
NIGHT.

..DIAL.. 02/07/2009

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