SWODY1
SPC AC 080028
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0628 PM CST SAT FEB 07 2009
VALID 080100Z - 081200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...
AT 00Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED LOW CENTERED ALONG THE
SRN CA COAST...WITH SEVERAL SMALLER VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND
THIS LOW. THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EWD TONIGHT REACHING THE LOWER
CO RIVER VALLEY AS AN UPSTREAM PACIFIC TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY
SEWD TOWARD THE WEST COAST. REGIONAL RADARS/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATED A CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED...THOUGH SPORADIC...
TSTMS EXTENDING FROM PARTS OF SRN CA/SWRN AZ NWD INTO SRN NV. THE
MORE PERSISTENT ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED NWD FROM SWRN AZ...WHERE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE GULF OF CA HAS ADVECTED LOWER 50S
SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO SW AZ. THIS TREND SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /AROUND -25 C AT 500
MB/ AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SPREAD EWD WITH THE UPPER LOW
ATOP THE MOIST AXIS. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND WITHIN
EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET EXTENDING INTO SWRN STATES WILL MAINTAIN
POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFTS TO REACH TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR CHARGE
SEPARATION/LIGHTNING PRODUCTION. GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...A
FEW OF THE PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL...
BUT OVERALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW GIVEN THE AVAILABILITY
OF WEAK INSTABILITY /MUCAPE AOB 500 J/KG/.
..PETERS.. 02/08/2009
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