KMFR [040459]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 040459
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
859 PM PST MON NOV 03 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0858 PM HEAVY RAIN 6 ESE COOS BAY 43.33N 124.12W
11/03/2008 M1.54 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

JOHNSON

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KMFR [040432]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 040432
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
832 PM PST MON NOV 03 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0831 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 NNW BROOKINGS 42.12N 124.32W
11/03/2008 M1.19 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

8AM-8PM LST

&&

$$

SVEN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 040101
SWODY1
SPC AC 040058

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 PM CST MON NOV 03 2008

VALID 040100Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INLAND THIS EVENING. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE ORE AND WA COASTS ALONG THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH TONIGHT DUE
TO STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND COLD AIR ALOFT. FURTHER
EAST...SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING OVER THE WARM WATERS OF
LAKE ERIE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY SEWD INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS TONIGHT.
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND LOW-LEVEL WARM MOIST
ADVECTION.

..BROYLES.. 11/04/2008

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KMFR [032355]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 032355
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
355 PM PST MON NOV 03 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0354 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 SSW OBRIEN 42.06N 123.71W
11/03/2008 M1.00 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL RAINFALL SINCE MIDNIGHT.

&&

$$

WOODHEAD

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 031941
SWODY1
SPC AC 031939

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0139 PM CST MON NOV 03 2008

VALID 032000Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE EXTREMELY SPARSE ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AS REGIONAL POCKETS OF
MOISTURE...SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...ARE MOSTLY VOID OF STEEPER
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. THE MOST CONCENTRATED CLUSTER OF CONVECTION
WITH LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD PERSIST AHEAD OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER LAKE ERIE. ANOTHER ZONE OF CONVECTION...WITH ISOLATED
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GULF STREAM JUST OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH PRONOUNCED INVERTED SFC
TROUGH. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD JUST INLAND BEFORE
WEAKENING. FARTHER EAST...STRONG HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WEST TX HAS PROVEN INSTRUMENTAL IN LONE THUNDERSTORM OVER ERN JEFF
DAVIS COUNTY JUST SW OF FST. WEAK FLOW/INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT
STRONGER UPDRAFTS TO HIGHER TERRAIN. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
CLEARLY DEPICTS INCOMING FRONT OFF THE CA COAST. WITH TIME THIS
BOUNDARY WILL SURGE ACROSS NRN CA AND MARINE LAYER SHOULD SPREAD
INLAND. IT APPEARS LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH OF STRONG JET AXIS.

..DARROW.. 11/03/2008

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KCAR [031915]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KCAR 031915
LSRCAR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
213 PM EST MON NOV 03 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG EASTPORT 44.91N 66.99W
10/29/2008 WASHINGTON ME POST OFFICE

TREES DOWN IN TOWN.

0130 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG PENOBSCOT 44.46N 68.71W
10/29/2008 HANCOCK ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN.

0130 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG ABBOT 45.19N 69.45W
10/29/2008 PISCATAQUIS ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN IN TOWN.

0130 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG MILO 45.25N 68.99W
10/29/2008 PISCATAQUIS ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWER OUTAGE DUE TO A TREE ON POWER LINE.

0130 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 N WHITING 44.82N 67.18W
10/29/2008 WASHINGTON ME DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

TREES DOWN ON US ROUTE ONE.

0130 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG BLUE HILL 44.41N 68.59W
10/29/2008 HANCOCK ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN.

0130 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG DEER ISLE 44.22N 68.68W
10/29/2008 HANCOCK ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN.

0140 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 10 SSW BAR HARBOR 44.25N 68.28W
10/29/2008 HANCOCK ME EMERGENCY MNGR

WIND DAMAGE TO FERRY TERMINAL AT BASS HARBOR. DEBRIS WAS
FLOATING IN THE HARBOR.

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG PRINCETON 45.22N 67.57W
10/29/2008 WASHINGTON ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ON WEST STREET.

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG SAINT AGATHA 47.24N 68.31W
10/29/2008 AROOSTOOK ME POST OFFICE

POWER OUTAGE FOR A FEW HOURS IN TOWN.

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG EASTPORT 44.91N 66.99W
10/29/2008 WASHINGTON ME POST OFFICE

TREE DOWN IN QUODDY VILLAGE.

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG BAR HARBOR 44.39N 68.20W
10/29/2008 HANCOCK ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN WITH POWER OUTAGES.

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG LIMESTONE 46.91N 67.83W
10/29/2008 AROOSTOOK ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWER OUTAGE IN TOWN REPORTED BY THE SHERIFFS DEPT.

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG CHARLOTTE 45.02N 67.25W
10/29/2008 WASHINGTON ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWER OUTAGES DUE TO TREE LIMBS ON POWER LINES.

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG CALAIS 45.19N 67.28W
10/29/2008 WASHINGTON ME POST OFFICE

TREES DOWN WITH POWER OUTAGES ON SOUTH STREET.

0230 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG PEMBROKE 44.95N 67.16W
10/29/2008 WASHINGTON ME DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

A HALF DOZEN TREES DOWN AROUND TOWN.

0230 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG TOPSFIELD 45.42N 67.74W
10/29/2008 WASHINGTON ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

4 TREES DOWN ALONG ROUTE 6.

0230 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG VANCEBORO 45.56N 67.43W
10/29/2008 WASHINGTON ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

4 TO 5 TREES DONW ON ROUTE 6 JUST WEST OF TOWN REPORTED
BY THE POINT OF ENTRY.

0230 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG ORIENT 45.82N 67.84W
10/29/2008 AROOSTOOK ME POST OFFICE

POWER OUTAGES IN TOWN WITH POWER LOST FOR AT LEAST 5
HOURS.

0230 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG CRYSTAL 45.96N 68.36W
10/29/2008 AROOSTOOK ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN ACROSS ROUTE 159 REPORTED BY THE STATE POLICE.

0230 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG LAMOINE 44.45N 68.29W
10/29/2008 HANCOCK ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN ON ROUTE 184.

0230 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG ASHLAND 46.63N 68.41W
10/29/2008 AROOSTOOK ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN ON ROUTE 227.

0230 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG CRYSTAL 45.96N 68.36W
10/29/2008 AROOSTOOK ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN ON ROUTE 159.

0230 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG PATTEN 46.00N 68.45W
10/29/2008 PENOBSCOT ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN ON ROUTE 11.

0230 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG ORONO 44.88N 68.67W
10/29/2008 PENOBSCOT ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN WITH POWER OUTAGES.

0230 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG LEE 45.36N 68.29W
10/29/2008 PENOBSCOT ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN IN PARTS OF TOWN.

0230 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG WALTHAM 44.71N 68.34W
10/29/2008 HANCOCK ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN ON ROUTE 179.

0230 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG WHITING 44.79N 67.18W
10/29/2008 WASHINGTON ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWER LINES DOWN.

0245 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 4 S ORIENT 45.76N 67.84W
10/29/2008 AROOSTOOK ME DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

TREES DOWN ON US ROUTE ONE IN THE TOWN OF WESTON.

0245 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG DANFORTH 45.66N 67.87W
10/29/2008 WASHINGTON ME DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

TREES DOWN ACROSS US ROUTE 1.

0245 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG BANCROFT 45.67N 68.03W
10/29/2008 AROOSTOOK ME DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

TREES DOWN ON THE BANCROFT ROAD.

0245 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG TOPSFIELD 45.42N 67.74W
10/29/2008 WASHINGTON ME DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

TREES DOWN ALONG US ROUTE ONE.

0300 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG SPRINGFIELD 45.40N 68.14W
10/29/2008 PENOBSCOT ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN ON SOME AREA ROADS.

0300 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG FORT KENT 47.26N 68.59W
10/29/2008 AROOSTOOK ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

LARGE TRAMPOLINE THROWN AGAINST A HOUSE.

0300 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG OLD TOWN 44.93N 68.65W
10/29/2008 PENOBSCOT ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN WITH POWER OUTAGES.

0330 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG CARIBOU 46.86N 68.01W
10/29/2008 AROOSTOOK ME NWS EMPLOYEE

TREE DOWN ON ROUTE ONE NEAR CARY HOSPITAL.

0330 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG CARIBOU 46.86N 68.01W
10/29/2008 AROOSTOOK ME NWS EMPLOYEE

TREES DOWN ON THE GRIMES ROAD.

0330 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG FORT FAIRFIELD 46.77N 67.83W
10/29/2008 AROOSTOOK ME NWS EMPLOYEE

TREE DOWN ON THE GRIMES ROAD.

0330 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG VAN BUREN 47.16N 67.94W
10/29/2008 AROOSTOOK ME UTILITY COMPANY

POWER OUTAGE IN TOWN.

0400 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG FORT KENT 47.26N 68.59W
10/29/2008 AROOSTOOK ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

DOWNED CABLE LINE ON MAIN STREET.

&&

$$

JAH

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 031705
SWODY2
SPC AC 031704

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1104 AM CST MON NOV 03 2008

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NRN PLAINS...

PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST INTO
THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE DAY2 PERIOD...WITH EXIT
REGION OF UPPER JET EXPECTED TO FOCUS ASCENT/MOISTENING AT MID
LEVELS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. AS
UPPER SPEED MAX ADVANCES INTO THE PLAINS THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT SLY
LLJ WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY DRAWING MODIFIED MOISTURE NWD ACROSS
TX/OK INTO EAST SIDE OF DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE OVER SD/NEB. MODELS
ALL SUGGEST WARM SECTOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DIFFICULT
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS DUE TO MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
AND A STOUT CAP. WITH TIME CONVECTION SHOULD EVOLVE OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NEB PANHANDLE AND WRN SD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
EXTREMELY MOISTURE STARVED BUT CERTAINLY SUPPORTED KINEMATICALLY.
AS CONVECTION SPREADS DOWNSTREAM...DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
STRONGER WARM ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS...ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAY PROVE ADEQUATE FOR A FEW ROBUST UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL.

...ELSEWHERE...

POST FRONTAL WLY ONSHORE FLOW REGIME SHOULD SPREAD SUFFICIENT
BUOYANCY INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW FOR LOW TOPPED CONVECTION AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. WITH UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO SHIFT
INTO ID/NV BY AFTERNOON...RISING HEIGHTS/WARMING MID LEVELS SHOULD
BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF GENERATING LIGHTNING.

CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST IN CONJUNCTION WITH WELL DEFINED SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM
ADVECTION. POOR LAPSE RATES INLAND WILL SEVERELY LIMIT THE WWD
PROGRESSION OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP ATOP COOLER
AIRMASS OVER LAND. ANY REAL THREAT FOR LIGHTNING SHOULD BE NEAR THE
COAST...OR MORE LIKELY OVER THE WARMER WATERS.

..DARROW.. 11/03/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 031630
SWODY1
SPC AC 031627

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1027 AM CST MON NOV 03 2008

VALID 031630Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...LK ERIE...
ELEVATED CAPE AND ASSOCIATED SCATTERED TSTMS INVOF WRN LK ERIE WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS LOWER MI UPPER VORT MAX DRIFTS E/SEWD...AND
THE SYSTEM BECOMES FURTHER REMOVED FROM MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS.

...COASTAL CAROLINAS...
ISOLATED TSTMS MAY SKIRT ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS WILL LIMIT SURFACE HEATING AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INLAND. GREATER
TSTM COVERAGE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.

...FAR SW TX...
LATEST NAM/NAMKF REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH 4-KM 00Z WRF-NSSL/NMM
GUIDANCE IN SUGGESTING ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE DAVIS MTNS AND
NEARBY HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH CONFLUENCE
ALONG LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE APPEARS WEAK...DAYTIME HEATING MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW CAP TO BE BREACHED...WARRANTING A SMALL GENERAL
TSTM AREA.

...NRN CA/SWRN ORE...
APPROACHING VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN STRONGLY
FORCED ASCENT OVERSPREADING THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. DESPITE STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...A NEARLY SATURATED
LOW/MID-TROPOSPHERIC THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WITH MARGINAL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD LIMIT CHARGE SEPARATION AND LIKELY LEND TO ONLY A FEW
SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES.

..GRAMS.. 11/03/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 031250
SWODY1
SPC AC 031248

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 AM CST MON NOV 03 2008

VALID 031300Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD...NEGATIVE TILT...AND SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE E PACIFIC TROUGH WILL
MOVE INLAND THIS PERIOD AS WEAK RIDGE PERSISTS FROM THE SRN PLNS TO
MID MS VLY. FARTHER E...TWO WEAK DISTURBANCES...ONE NOW OVER LWR MI
AND THE OTHER OVER N FL...WILL RESPECTIVELY AFFECT THE UPR OH VLY
AND S ATLANTIC CST.

...W CST...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW NEARING 40N/130W EXPECTED TO FURTHER AMPLIFY AS
IT CONTINUES ESE INTO NRN/CNTRL CA THIS EVE. THE FEATURE MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SCTD DEEP CONVECTION/TSTMS ALONG THE NRN CA/SRN ORE
CST...MAINLY BETWEEN 00 AND 03Z TUE.

...LWR GRT LKS...
ELEVATED CAPE AND ASSOCIATED ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THE DAY OVER NRN OH/SE LWR MI AS LWR MI UPR VORT DRIFTS SEWD
INTO DRIER AIR...AND THE SYSTEM BECOMES FURTHER REMOVED FROM MAIN
BELT OF THE WLYS.

...S ATLANTIC CST...
CONVECTION/ISOLD THUNDER MAY OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NC/SC AND GA
CST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS UPR LVL LOW GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATES OVER
REGION. THE STRONGEST AND MORE NEARLY SFC-BASED STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN OFFSHORE.

..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 11/03/2008

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 030959
SWOD48
SPC AC 030958

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CST MON NOV 03 2008

VALID 061200Z - 111200Z

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID/LWR MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
WESTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS THURSDAY...

WITH A SIGNIFICANT LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONE LIKELY TO LINGER JUST EAST
OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK
WEEK...THE WARM SECTOR OF THE CYCLONE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME PARTICULARLY BROAD.
AND...IT WILL LIKELY BECOME CONFINED TO A NARROWING TONGUE ACROSS
THE UPPER TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ON THURSDAY...WHERE/WHEN THE SEVERE THREAT MAY REMAIN ELEVATED.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY COULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DAMAGING
WIND AND HAIL POTENTIAL WITH A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE...WITH
PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS ALSO POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THE LINE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BEFORE THE CYCLONE OCCLUDES
AND GULF MOISTURE RETURN BECOMES CUT-OFF.

THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE
PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A
GROWING SPREAD AMONG MODELS AND MREF MEMBERS CONCERNING THE PATTERN
EVOLUTION ACROSS THE EAST...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE U.S...BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY
ACCELERATE INTO THE ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY...AS THE LARGE-SCALE
UPSTREAM TROUGH PROGRESSES INTO THE EASTERN STATES. BUT...LOW-LEVEL
FLOW IS PROGGED TO MAINTAIN A SUBSTANTIAL WESTERLY COMPONENT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND ATLANTIC SEABOARD...WHICH WILL PROBABLY
MINIMIZE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

..KERR.. 11/03/2008

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 030829
SWODY3
SPC AC 030826

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CST MON NOV 03 2008

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WED/WED NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
THE PLAINS AND LWR/MID MO VALLEY....

...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE A FAIRLY DEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONE WITHIN A SOUTHERN BRANCH
OF SPLIT POLAR WESTERLIES ONLY VERY SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST...MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AXIS OF AN
AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE ROCKIES INTO
THE PLAINS DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS PROGGED TO OCCUR AS
AN EMBEDDED POLAR JET CORE...AND ASSOCIATED PRIMARY MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE...PROGRESS THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND
UPSTREAM RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE PACIFIC COAST STATES.
WHILE THE DEEP CYCLONE ACCOMPANYING THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH MAY NOT
DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER...A STRONG COLD FRONT APPEARS LIKELY TO
SURGE TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...THROUGH MUCH OF THE PLAINS BY 12Z
THURSDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE PRECEDED BY A MORE SUBSTANTIVE
RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

...PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
THE STRENGTH OF MID-LEVEL INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER EMANATING FROM THE PLATEAU REGION...THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE PLAINS...AND SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING SMALLER SCALE DETAILS OF THE
LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION...ARE ALL UNCERTAINTIES WHICH WILL
AFFECT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THIS PERIOD. BUT...GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SUPERCELLS ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL DRY LINE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT
MOISTENING AND HEATING MAY OCCUR FOR MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 500-1000
J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS...PERHAPS
FARTHER NORTHWARD INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. AND...DEEP LAYER
SHEAR BENEATH THE 50-70+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB JET STREAK WILL BE
STRONG...WITH LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS NEAR A
30-50+ KT SOUTHERLY 850 JET.

FLOW FIELDS ARE PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS THE APPROACHING UPPER JET CORE BEGINS TO NOSE EAST OF THE
DIFLUENT UPPER TROUGH AXIS. COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
FORCING AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRY LINE AND SURGES
TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF COAST... THE EVOLUTION OF AN
EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE APPEARS POSSIBLE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD WEDNESDAY
EVENING...PARTICULARLY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY/OZARK PLATEAU AND ARKLATEX...WHERE A LINGERING SEVERE THREAT
MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

..KERR.. 11/03/2008

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 030609
SWODY2
SPC AC 030608

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 AM CST MON NOV 03 2008

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS REMAIN SIMILAR...AND CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A STRONG POLAR
JET CORE WILL FINALLY DIG INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST DURING
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...A BROAD FAIRLY DEEP
MID/UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
AND ROCKIES...INTO THE PLAINS...SUPPORTING STRONG SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS TO THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AND...A DOWNSTREAM
TROUGH...WITHIN A WEAKER SOUTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT POLAR
WESTERLIES...APPEARS LIKELY TO BEGIN SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. WHILE SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND WESTERN GULF COAST REGION MAY BEGIN TO
WEAKEN...GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION
OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A
SIGNIFICANT/DEEP LAYER INLAND RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. COUPLED WITH CONSIDERABLE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
INHIBITION ACROSS THE PLAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
AIR ADVECTING OFF THE PLATEAU REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
APPEARS LIMITED.

...PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY/NORTHERN PLAINS...
DESPITE THE LACK OF A STRONG MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO...A TONGUE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY MID 50S+ F
SURFACE DEW POINTS IS CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS...WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTENING ONGOING ACROSS THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF THE
DEVELOPING LEE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD ADVECT THIS AIR MASS NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE PLAINS BY LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...WHEN FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION NEAR A CONSOLIDATING SURFACE LOW CENTER OVER
SOUTH DAKOTA MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME INHIBITION.
STORMS MAY INITIATE IN AN ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION REGIME...NORTH OF
A WARM FRONT FORMING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW.
BUT...STRENGTHENING FORCING IN THE EXIT REGION OF AN INITIAL
MID-LEVEL JET STREAK NOSING INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY MAY SUPPORT
STORMS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. IF THIS OCCURS...ACTIVITY MAY STILL BE ELEVATED ABOVE A
SHALLOW STABLE SURFACE LAYER...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT LEAST LARGE
HAIL.

...SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...
THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND HIGHER THUNDERSTORM
PROBABILITIES...ARE EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED NEAR THE SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH...GENERALLY OFFSHORE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

...WESTERN STATES...
COLD MID-LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MAY CONTRIBUTE
TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR WIDELY SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TUESDAY...ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES...AND AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES.

..KERR.. 11/03/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 030556
SWODY1
SPC AC 030553

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 PM CST SUN NOV 02 2008

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE NEWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY
AS ANOTHER MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ALONG THE
WEST COAST. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST
OF ORE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND COLD AIR ALOFT.
FURTHER EAST IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION...A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SERN LOWER MI EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SEWD. THE ONLY OTHER POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION WILL EXIST ALONG THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA COASTS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW DRIFTING NEWD
ALONG THE SRN ATLANTIC SEABOARD.

..BROYLES.. 11/03/2008

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