SWODY1
SPC AC 031627
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1027 AM CST MON NOV 03 2008
VALID 031630Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...LK ERIE...
ELEVATED CAPE AND ASSOCIATED SCATTERED TSTMS INVOF WRN LK ERIE WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS LOWER MI UPPER VORT MAX DRIFTS E/SEWD...AND
THE SYSTEM BECOMES FURTHER REMOVED FROM MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS.
...COASTAL CAROLINAS...
ISOLATED TSTMS MAY SKIRT ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS WILL LIMIT SURFACE HEATING AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INLAND. GREATER
TSTM COVERAGE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.
...FAR SW TX...
LATEST NAM/NAMKF REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH 4-KM 00Z WRF-NSSL/NMM
GUIDANCE IN SUGGESTING ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE DAVIS MTNS AND
NEARBY HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH CONFLUENCE
ALONG LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE APPEARS WEAK...DAYTIME HEATING MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW CAP TO BE BREACHED...WARRANTING A SMALL GENERAL
TSTM AREA.
...NRN CA/SWRN ORE...
APPROACHING VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN STRONGLY
FORCED ASCENT OVERSPREADING THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. DESPITE STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...A NEARLY SATURATED
LOW/MID-TROPOSPHERIC THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WITH MARGINAL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD LIMIT CHARGE SEPARATION AND LIKELY LEND TO ONLY A FEW
SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES.
..GRAMS.. 11/03/2008
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