KGGW [200149]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 200149
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
748 PM MDT MON OCT 19 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0640 PM SNOW 46 SW GLASGOW 47.72N 107.34W
10/19/2009 E2.0 INCH VALLEY MT CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

TFJ

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KSLC [200147]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KSLC 200147
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
741 PM MDT MON OCT 19 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0653 PM HAIL ROY 41.18N 112.04W
10/19/2009 M0.50 INCH WEBER UT TRAINED SPOTTER

0653 PM HAIL OGDEN 41.25N 111.94W
10/19/2009 M0.50 INCH WEBER UT TRAINED SPOTTER

1200 AM NON-TSTM WND GST ALTA 40.57N 111.64W
10/19/2009 M67 MPH SALT LAKE UT MESONET

CENTRAL WASATCH PEAKS - 11066 FT

0515 AM NON-TSTM WND GST LAKE POINT 41.06N 112.89W
10/19/2009 M60 MPH BOX ELDER UT MESONET

LAKESIDE MOUNTAIN - 5039 FT

0515 AM NON-TSTM WND GST SNOWBASIN 41.20N 111.88W
10/19/2009 M67 MPH WEBER UT MESONET

OGDEN PEAK - 9570 FT

0345 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SALINE 41.26N 112.44W
10/19/2009 M62 MPH BOX ELDER UT MESONET

PROMONTORY POINT - 6926 FT

&&

$$

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 200038
SWODY1
SPC AC 200037

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2009

VALID 200100Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

CLUSTER OF ELEVATED STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH
OVER WRN PARTS OF SD/NEB SHOULD TEND TO DISSIPATE WITH TIME AS
STRONGER FORCING SPREADS EWD AND ACTS ON AN INCREASINGLY STABLE
ENVIRONMENT. ADDITIONAL ELEVATED STORMS MAY REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT
IN SAME GENERAL VICINITY AS LOW-LEVEL WAA INCREASES TO THE N OF
SURFACE CYCLONE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH WILL RESIDE
FROM CNTRL/ERN WY INTO NRN KS/SRN NEB.

...NRN GREAT BASIN...

DEEP ASCENT IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF CYCLONIC UPPER JET STREAK SHOULD
SUSTAIN ISOLATED/SCATTERED TSTMS INTO TONIGHT GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT OBSERVED BY 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS.

...SRN ROCKIES INTO FAR WRN TX...

TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING OVER FAR NRN MEXICO WITHIN
MIDLEVEL MOIST PLUME TRAILING LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. 00Z ELP SOUNDING INDICATES THAT AMBIENT
LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER STEEP...RESULTING IN A SMALL AMOUNT OF
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN TO THE S OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...SOME POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER SERN AZ/SRN NM/FAR WRN TX
TONIGHT.

..MEAD.. 10/20/2009

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KTFX [192319]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 192319
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
519 PM MDT MON OCT 19 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 PM SNOW STANFORD 47.15N 110.22W
10/19/2009 M2.5 INCH JUDITH BASIN MT TRAINED SPOTTER

2.5 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE TOWN OF STANFORD. SNOW
IS MAINLY IN THE GRASS WITH ROADWAYS WET.

&&

EVENT NUMBER TFX0900012

$$

HOENISCH

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 191943
SWODY1
SPC AC 191942

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2009

VALID 192000Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...GREAT BASIN...
LOOSELY ORGANIZED BANDS OF CONVECTION...INCLUDING SEVERAL
TSTMS...WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NEWD TO ENEWD ACROSS
PORTIONS NRN NV...UT AND SRN ID. WITH SOME DIURNAL SFC
HEATING...BUOYANT PROFILES ARE NARROW ON FCST SOUNDINGS...BUT
SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO SUPPORT LIGHTNING PRODUCTION AND 100-400 J/KG
MLCAPE. LOW LEVEL AMBIENT FLOW WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK...ALTHOUGH
STG WINDS ALOFT WILL BOOST CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR. MOST VIGOROUS
CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE STG GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL...BUT LACK OF RICHER
THETAE/INSTABILITY INDICATES SVR POTENTIAL IS TOO ISOLATED AND WEAK
TO WARRANT INTRODUCING AOA 5-PERCENT GRID PROBABILITIES ATTM.

...NWRN CA...
ADDED SMALL GEN THUNDER AREA FOR MRGL POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD-CORE REGION OF STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT. LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE MAXIMIZED INTO MID-LATE AFTERNOON ATOP SFC TEMPS AND
DEW POINTS 50S F. MLCAPES WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK -- BELOW 100 J/KG
IN MOST AREAS -- BUT SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDER
POTENTIAL.

..EDWARDS/COOK.. 10/19/2009

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2009/

TROUGH NOW ENTERING NRN CA WILL DIG SEWD TOWARD LWR CO RIVER VALLEY
BY TUE AM...WITH THE LEAD IMPULSE NOW NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
DAMPENING AS IT MOVES INTO CONFLUENT FLOW OVER NRN PLAINS.

STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY
DIURNAL GENERALLY WEAK THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH BOTH SYSTEMS.
SOUTHERN LIMIT OF STORM FORMATION SHOULD BE ALONG AND N OF CYCLONIC
SIDE OF POLAR JET...WHERE MID LEVEL AIR MASS WILL BE COLDER...AND
LAPSE RATES STEEPER.

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 191731
SWODY2
SPC AC 191730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2009

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LOW-AMPLITUDE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN EVIDENT ACROSS CONUS...WITH SERIES
OF PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVES EXPECTED TO DOMINATE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
NEXT COUPLE DAYS. PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY MOVING ASHORE NRN CA -- IS FCST TO DIG SEWD
ACROSS WRN NV BY 20/12Z...THEN PIVOT EWD ACROSS 4-CORNERS REGION AND
SRN ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH ONLY PRESENT IN MINORITY OF SREF MEMBERS AND
OPERATIONAL SPECTRAL/WRF...PRESENCE OF EMBEDDED/CLOSED 500 MB LOW
WITH THIS FEATURE IS REASONABLE THROUGH PERIOD...GIVEN CURRENT
SATELLITE TRENDS AND ANALYZED 12Z HEIGHT CHANGE PATTERN.

AT SFC...CYCLONES ARE FCST AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD OVER UT AND INVOF
KS/CO BORDER. FORMER SHOULD WEAKEN AS COMBINED
LEE-SIDE/FRONTAL-WAVE LOW INTENSIFIES NEARLY IN PLACE E OF
ROCKIES...YIELDING PRONOUNCED SFC LOW OVER SWRN KS/SERN CO BY
21/00Z. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS AZ/NM DURING DAY THEN LINK
WITH LEE-SIDE LOW BY 21/06Z. FRONTAL ZONE FARTHER NE ACROSS ERN NEB
AND SRN MN SHOULD REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY THROUGH 21/00Z...WITH
SECONDARY/FRONTAL-WAVE LOW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AFTER DARK OVER IA.
AS UPPER TROUGH APCHS...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN
HIGH PLAINS.

...SERN AZ TO SRN HIGH PLAINS...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATE MORNING THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THIS REGION. FAVORABLY STG
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR EACH WILL SHIFT EWD
ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...WITH 500 MB WINDS AOA 45 KT
AS FAR S AS DUG BY 20/18Z. GPS PW DATA CURRENTLY INDICATES .75-1
INCH PW ACROSS ELP-TUS CORRIDOR...AND OVER AN INCH FARTHER S OVER
SONORA. SUCH MOISTURE SHOULD BE MAINTAINED AND ADVECTED NEWD IN LOW
LEVEL WAA REGIME AHEAD OF MIDLEVEL WAVE. THIS MOISTURE WITH
DIABATIC SFC HEATING SHOULD BE AT LEAST MRGLLY SUFFICIENT TO
OVERCOME RELATIVELY WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...FOR DIURNAL MLCAPE
POTENTIALLY 250-500 J/KG. STRENGTH OF AMBIENT FLOW SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN DOWNDRAFTS AND
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS. MID-LATE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS SERN NM AND W TX MAY BE RATHER
HIGH-BASED ATOP WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...ALSO SUPPORTING STG TO
MRGL SVR GUSTS.

WEAKENING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING CINH WITH EWD EXTENT
WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION FARTHER E ACROSS
CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS FROM WRN KS TO OK/TX PANHANDLES AND
W-CENTRAL TX. DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STRENGTHEN WITH TIME AFTER DARK...AS RIBBON OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED
RETURN-FLOW AIR ADVECTS NWD AND NNEWD FROM RIO GRANDE/LOWER PECOS
VALLEYS. STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...AND STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES ATOP ELEVATED/LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME...MAY SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED HAIL OR STG GUSTS WITH NOCTURNAL TSTMS FROM TRANS-PECOS
REGION TO PANHANDLES. CONVECTION WILL BE INCREASINGLY ELEVATED WITH
MORE LIMITED MUCAPE NEWD ACROSS WRN/SRN KS.

LACK OF MORE ROBUST WARM-SECTOR MOISTURE PRECLUDES CATEGORICAL
OUTLOOK ATTM.

..EDWARDS.. 10/19/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 191558
SWODY1
SPC AC 191557

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1057 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2009

VALID 191630Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

TROUGH NOW ENTERING NRN CA WILL DIG SEWD TOWARD LWR CO RIVER VALLEY
BY TUE AM...WITH THE LEAD IMPULSE NOW NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
DAMPENING AS IT MOVES INTO CONFLUENT FLOW OVER NRN PLAINS.

STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY
DIURNAL GENERALLY WEAK THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH BOTH SYSTEMS.
SOUTHERN LIMIT OF STORM FORMATION SHOULD BE ALONG AND N OF CYCLONIC
SIDE OF POLAR JET...WHERE MID LEVEL AIR MASS WILL BE COLDER...AND
LAPSE RATES STEEPER.

..HALES/HURLBUT.. 10/19/2009

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KTFX [191532]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 191532
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
932 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0850 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 SSE GRANT 44.94N 113.03W
10/19/2009 M0.55 INCH BEAVERHEAD MT CO-OP OBSERVER

HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN SINCE 230 AM MDT. STILL RAINING
HEAVILY. PUDDLES HAVE FORMED...BUT NO FLOODING DETECTED.

&&

$$

COULSTON

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 191230
SWODY1
SPC AC 191229

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2009

VALID 191300Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW OVER NRN NV WILL FURTHER WEAKEN AS STRONGER
UPSTREAM TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY SE INTO NRN/CNTRL CA. THE
LATTER SYSTEM SHOULD REACH THE LWR CO VLY BY 12Z TUE AS LOW
AMPLITUDE RDG PROGRESSES FROM THE SRN PLNS TO LWR MS/TN VLYS.

AT LWR LVLS...EXPECT LEE CYCLONE TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE OVER ERN
CO/WRN KS. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH CA UPR TROUGH SHOULD MERGE
WITH BOUNDARY LEFT BY NV SYSTEM. THE COMBINED FRONTS SHOULD MOVE
ESE ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND GREAT BASIN LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT...AND WILL SERVE TO FOCUS ISOLD TO SCTD
DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORMS.

...GRT BASIN TO NRN HI PLNS...
AIR S AND E OF FRONT OVER THE GRT BASIN WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY
...WITH PW GENERALLY AOB 0.5-0.6 INCH. NEVERTHELESS...STEEP
MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF AMPLIFYING UPR
JET...AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL STEEPEN LOW LVL LAPSE RATES. AS A
RESULT...AREAS OF MODEST SBCAPE /AOB 250 J PER KG/ WILL DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF NV/SRN ID/NRN UT/WY AND SRN MT TODAY. COUPLED WITH FORCING
FOR ASCENT IN EXIT REGION OF JET STREAK...ISOLD TO SCTD TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTN/EVE...ESPECIALLY INVOF FRONT. ALTHOUGH A FEW
STORMS MAY YIELD SMALL HAIL...MEAGER CAPE WILL LIMIT SVR THREAT.
ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY OCCUR FARTHER E IN CONJUNCTION WITH
TERRAIN-INDUCED CIRCULATIONS AND LOW LVL WAA OVER THE NRN HI PLNS.

...SE AZ INTO SRN/CNTRL NM AND SW TX...
INFLUX OF LOW LVL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF CA AND NW MEXICO...AND
SFC...HEATING WILL YIELD WEAK INSTABILITY /SBCAPE TO 500 J PER KG/
OVER PARTS OF AZ/NM AND SW TX TODAY. STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL REMAIN WELL TO NW OF REGION THROUGH THE DAY...WEAK ASCENT WILL
BE PRESENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH PASSING DISTURBANCES IN SRN STREAM
FLOW. THIS SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLD TO SCTD
DIURNAL PULSE STORMS...ESPECIALLY FROM E AZ INTO SW/S CNTRL NM.

..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 10/19/2009

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 190713
SWODY3
SPC AC 190712

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2009

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE SHIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. THIS PERIOD...THOUGH CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES EMERGE BETWEEN
THE NAM AND GFS IN THE HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH THE DAY 3
PERIOD. WHILE THE NAM MAINTAINS A PROGRESSIVE/PHASED NRN AND SRN
STREAM TROUGH...THE GFS DEPICTS A MUCH SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE SRN
STREAM FEATURE WHILE THE NRN TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE UPPER
MS VALLEY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

THESE DIFFERENCES ARE ALSO EVIDENT IN THE SURFACE PATTERN EVOLUTION.
WHILE THE NAM TAKES THE FRONT TO THE WRN GULF COAST REGION BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...THE GFS -- AS A RESULT OF THE SLOWER HANDLING OF
THE SRN STREAM UPPER FEATURE -- DEPICTS SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT IN
ERN OK ALONG THE FRONT. IN EITHER CASE HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF THE S CENTRAL CONUS.

...S CENTRAL AND SERN OK SSEWD TO THE WRN GULF COAST...
SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING STORM SYSTEM WILL RESULT
IN CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE S CENTRAL U.S. WHICH --
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING -- SHOULD YIELD MARGINAL
DESTABILIZATION. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL ASCENT INVOF THE
FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT -- THOUGH GENERALLY
LIMITED IN INTENSITY BY A LACK OF MORE FAVORABLE CAPE.

STILL...A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY EMERGE...AS FAVORABLY
VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT RESULT IN SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. WHILE RESULTING POTENTIAL FOR WIND/HAIL DOES
NOT WARRANT SLIGHT RISK INCLUSION ATTM...WILL INTRODUCE LOW /5%/
SEVERE PROBABILITY THIS FORECAST. THREAT SHOULD INITIALLY EXIST
ACROSS PARTS OF OK/TX...AND COULD SPREAD AS FAR E AS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY REGION LATE DEPENDING UPON EWD PROGRESS OF THE SRN STREAM
SYSTEM.

..GOSS.. 10/19/2009

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KTFX [190641]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KTFX 190641
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1241 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1130 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 9 NNE BABB 48.98N 113.36W
10/17/2009 M57.00 MPH GLACIER MT TRAINED SPOTTER

PEAK WIND GUST 57 MPH...SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 35 MPH.

1151 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ENE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.45N 113.20W
10/17/2009 M53.00 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

53 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST EAST OF EAST
GLACIER PARK.

0400 AM NON-TSTM WND GST HEART BUTTE 48.29N 112.83W
10/18/2009 M52.00 MPH PONDERA MT MESONET

52 MPH PEAK WIND GUST IN HEART BUTTE.

0742 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ENE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.45N 113.20W
10/18/2009 M55.00 MPH GLACIER MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

55 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST EAST OF EAST
GLACIER PARK.

0900 AM NON-TSTM WND GST HEART BUTTE 48.29N 112.83W
10/18/2009 M64.00 MPH PONDERA MT MESONET

64 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT HEART BUTTE.

&&

HERE IS A SUMMARY OF HIGH WIND REPORTS FROM LATE SATURDAY EVENING
UNTIL MID MORNING SUNDAY.

$$

BRUSDA

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KTFX [190641]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 190641
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1240 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0742 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ENE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.45N 113.20W
10/18/2009 M55.00 MPH GLACIER MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

55 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR JUST EAST OF EAST
GLACIER PARK.

0900 AM NON-TSTM WND GST HEART BUTTE 48.29N 112.83W
10/18/2009 M64.00 MPH PONDERA MT MESONET

64 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT HEART BUTTE.

&&

$$

BRUSDA

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 190548
SWODY2
SPC AC 190547

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2009

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE ROCKIES AND BEGIN AFFECTING
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE/U.S. PLAINS STATES THIS PERIOD. AS THIS
OCCURS...A SURFACE LOW INVOF WRN KS SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD WHILE SHIFTING NEWD TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL
ALLOW A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. AND SWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH 21/12Z.

A SLOW-TO-MOISTEN/CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT MOST WARM-SECTOR
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. STORMS ARE FORECAST HOWEVER
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S./SRN ROCKIES IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH...AND THEN INTO THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS A LOW-LEVEL JET
INCREASES AND SUPPORTS ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IN BOTH
AREAS HOWEVER...CAPE SHOULD REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR APPRECIABLE
SEVERE POTENTIAL.

..GOSS.. 10/19/2009

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KSTO [190505]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSTO 190505
LSRSTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1005 PM PDT SUN OCT 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 PM FLOOD REDDING 40.57N 122.36W
10/18/2009 SHASTA CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

BOULDER CREEK TRAILER PARK AND ADJACENT APARTMENT
BUILDING EVACUATED.

0900 PM FLOOD REDDING 40.57N 122.36W
10/18/2009 SHASTA CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

3 CARS STUCK IN 3 1/2 FEET OF WATER AT SHASTA VIEW DRIVE
AND ATRIUM. SOME HOMES FLOODED.

0935 PM HEAVY RAIN REDDING 40.57N 122.36W
10/18/2009 M0.00 INCH SHASTA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

1.59 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE LAST 2 HOURS.

&&

$$

RBARUFFA

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 190447
SWODY1
SPC AC 190445

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2009

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE SIERRAS WILL WEAKEN TODAY
IN ADVANCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER SYSTEM WHICH WILL UNDERGO
CONSIDERABLE AMPLIFICATION WHILE MOVING ON TO THE CA COAST AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE LOWER CO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...SEPARATE LOW
CENTERS INITIALLY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL
EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE OVER ERN CO/WRN KS LATER TONIGHT. PACIFIC
COLD FRONT ATTENDING WRN CONUS UPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH EWD/SEWD
THROUGH THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND GREAT BASIN...LIKELY
SERVING AS THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT.

...GREAT BASIN INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS...

PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY WITH PW VALUES
GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.5-0.6 INCH. BUT...THE PRESENCE OF STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS
OF WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY LATER TODAY. FORCING FOR ASCENT IN
EXIT REGION OF CYCLONIC UPPER JET STREAK COUPLED WITH THE WEAK AIR
MASS DESTABILIZATION ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ISOLATED/SCATTERED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG PACIFIC FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. A FEW
OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL...THOUGH THE
PROSPECTS FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR QUITE LOW. ADDITIONAL
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FARTHER E WITHIN ZONE OF LOWER TROPOSPHERIC
WAA FOCUSED INVOF INTENSIFYING WARM FRONT OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.

...SRN ROCKIES...

INFLUX OF AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OFF THE GULF OF CA IN
CONJUNCTION WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS ACROSS REGION TODAY. WHILE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL REMAIN TO THE NW/W THROUGH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE...GLANCING
INFLUENCE OF WEAKER LEAD IMPULSES IN CONCERT WITH OROGRAPHIC FORCING
WILL LIKELY YIELD ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS LATER TODAY. NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

..MEAD/GRAMS.. 10/19/2009

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