KGID [140350]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 140350
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1049 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1042 PM HAIL 11 N PHILLIPSBURG 39.91N 99.32W
10/13/2007 E1.00 INCH PHILLIPS KS CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

NWS

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KGID [140349]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 140349
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1049 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1041 PM HAIL 10 N PHILLIPSBURG 39.90N 99.32W
10/13/2007 E1.00 INCH PHILLIPS KS CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

NWS

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KGID [140348]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 140348
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1047 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1035 PM HAIL 2 SE LONG ISLAND 39.93N 99.51W
10/13/2007 E0.75 INCH PHILLIPS KS TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

NWS

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KGID [140344]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 140344
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1044 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1043 PM HAIL 11 N PHILLIPSBURG 39.91N 99.32W
10/13/2007 E1.75 INCH PHILLIPS KS CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

NWS

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KGID [140340]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 140340
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1040 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1038 PM HAIL 10 NW PHILLIPSBURG 39.85N 99.46W
10/13/2007 E1.00 INCH PHILLIPS KS CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

NWS

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KDDC [140335]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 140335
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1035 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1020 PM HAIL INGALLS 37.83N 100.45W
10/13/2007 E0.88 INCH GRAY KS TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

MSCOTT

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KDDC [140301]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 140301
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1001 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0915 PM HAIL 5 S INGALLS 37.76N 100.45W
10/13/2007 M2.50 INCH GRAY KS TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

MSCOTT

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KDDC [140257]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 140257
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
951 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0942 PM HAIL 1 W KALVESTA 38.05N 100.30W
10/13/2007 E1.00 INCH FINNEY KS TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

MSCOTT

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KDDC [140225]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 140225
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
925 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0915 PM HAIL 5 S INGALLS 37.76N 100.45W
10/13/2007 E1.50 INCH GRAY KS TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

MSCOTT

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 702

WWUS20 KWNS 140222
SEL2
SPC WW 140222
KSZ000-NEZ000-141000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 702
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
920 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN AND WESTERN KANSAS
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 920 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF GARDEN CITY KANSAS TO 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF
CONCORDIA KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED SW-NE ACROSS SWRN INTO NORTH
CENTRAL KS. APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH IS RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY. MUCAPES BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AT
50-60 KT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. THE EXPECTED ELEVATED
NATURE OF THE STORMS SUGGEST HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 50
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 22030.

..IMY

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KDDC [140208]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 140208
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
908 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0858 PM HAIL 4 SE PLAINS CITY 37.22N 100.54W
10/13/2007 E0.75 INCH MEADE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

MSCOTT

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KDDC [140158]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 140158
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
858 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0847 PM HAIL 14 E HUGOTON 37.18N 101.09W
10/13/2007 E0.88 INCH STEVENS KS TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

MSCOTT

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2071

ACUS11 KWNS 140128
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140127
KSZ000-NEZ000-140300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2071
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0827 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...KS...NE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 140127Z - 140300Z

RECENT ISOLATED TSTM INITIATION ALONG/NORTH OF STRONG SW-NE ORIENTED
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FROM SWRN TO NCNTRL KS IS PROBABLY THE
BEGINNING OF MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. LATEST INDICATIONS SUGGEST VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THIS
ZONE WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND A SEVERE TSTM WATCH
IS BEING CONSIDERED.

LATEST DDC OBSERVED SOUNDING APPEARS REPRESENTATIVE OF AMBIENT
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT /NAMELY ABOVE 850 MB/ IN WHICH THESE
STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.0
C/KM AND MUCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. GIVEN THIS MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN THE RANGE OF 40-50KT...IN CONCERT WITH
INCREASINGLY STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS...NUMEROUS ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING A FEW
SUPERCELLS...ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. THE BULK
OF THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE ROOTED ABOVE WEAKLY CAPPED
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL.
NONETHELESS...ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SUFFICIENT SEVERE STORM
COVERAGE TO WARRANT A WATCH.

.CARBIN.. 10/14/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

39500043 40229847 40109719 39169694 38519737 37320013
37240083 37700154 38690152 39150109

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 140057
SWODY1
SPC AC 140054

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

VALID 140100Z - 141200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS...

..CNTRL PLAINS...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DYNAMIC UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN W WITH LEAD JET STREAK/VORTICITY MAXIMUM LIFTING NEWD
INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...AND MORE POTENT UPSTREAM VORTICITY
MAXIMUM MOVING THROUGH SRN AZ. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS CONSISTENT IN INDICATING THAT THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL
TRANSLATE EWD/SEWD OVERNIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS
OVERSPREADING THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...LEE CYCLONE OVER FAR SERN CO/WRN OK PNHDL IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY DEVELOP EWD OVERNIGHT WHILE ATTENDANT WARM FRONT REMAINS
QUASI-STATIONARY OR LIFTS SLIGHTLY NWD THROUGH CNTRL/NRN KS. AS
THIS OCCURS...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SURGE SWD THROUGH
THE CNTRL INTO SRN HIGH PLAINS.

RECENT TRENDS IN REGIONAL PROFILER/VWP DATA AND SHORT TERM RUC
DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS INDICATE THAT A SUBSTANTIAL ADJUSTMENT IS
OCCURRING TO THE LOW-LEVEL MASS FIELDS IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH. THIS PROCESS IS RESULTING IN WINDS BACKING TO SLY
JUST ABOVE THE PBL...WITH THE STRONGEST WARM AND MOISTURE ADVECTIONS
DEVELOPING WWD WITH TIME ACROSS NRN KS/SRN NEB...TO THE N OF SURFACE
WARM FRONT. THESE DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTIONS COUPLED WITH INCREASED
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS
ELEVATED TSTMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS NRN KS/SRN NEB.

00Z DDC OBSERVED SOUNDING APPEARS QUITE REPRESENTATIVE OF AMBIENT
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT /NAMELY ABOVE 850 MB/ IN WHICH THESE
STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.0
C/KM AND MUCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. THIS MODERATE INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF 40-50 KT SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED...ELEVATED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL.

.MEAD.. 10/14/2007

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KBOU [132251]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KBOU 132251
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
451 PM MDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 PM HAIL 6 E AURORA 39.70N 104.70W
10/13/2007 M0.75 INCH ARAPAHOE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL COVERS THE GROUND

0450 PM HAIL 2 N CASTLE ROCK 39.40N 104.86W
10/13/2007 M0.88 INCH DOUGLAS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

JK

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KBOU [132234]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOU 132234
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
434 PM MDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 PM HAIL 6 E AURORA 39.70N 104.70W
10/13/2007 M0.75 INCH ARAPAHOE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL COVERS THE GROUND

&&

$$

JK

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KTOP [132153]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KTOP 132153
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
452 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0414 PM HAIL MINNEAPOLIS 39.12N 97.71W
10/12/2007 M1.75 INCH OTTAWA KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

HAIL, UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE, COVERING THE GROUND.

1005 PM HAIL ALTA VISTA 38.86N 96.49W
10/12/2007 E0.88 INCH WABAUNSEE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

0224 AM HAIL 3 S ALMA 38.97N 96.29W
10/13/2007 M1.00 INCH WABAUNSEE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL FOR 5 MINUTES WITH GROUND COVERED

0455 AM HAIL ALMA 39.02N 96.29W
10/13/2007 E1.75 INCH WABAUNSEE KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

0509 AM HAIL PAXICO 39.07N 96.17W
10/13/2007 M1.00 INCH WABAUNSEE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

0515 AM HAIL PAXICO 39.07N 96.17W
10/13/2007 M0.75 INCH WABAUNSEE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

0554 AM HAIL BURLINGAME 38.75N 95.83W
10/13/2007 E1.75 INCH OSAGE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS FALLING IN BURLINGAME.

0619 AM HAIL 3 S HARVEYVILLE 38.75N 95.96W
10/13/2007 E0.88 INCH WABAUNSEE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

2 INCHES OF STORM TOTAL RAIN ALSO REPORTED.

0621 AM HAIL 2 W BURLINGAME 38.75N 95.87W
10/13/2007 E1.00 INCH OSAGE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

0745 AM FLASH FLOOD WILLIAMSTOWN 39.06N 95.33W
10/13/2007 JEFFERSON KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

DELAYED REPORT. APPROXIMATELY ONE AND A HALF FEET OF
WATER OVER HWY 24 AT WILLIAMSTOWN.

0836 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 NE PERRY 39.13N 95.33W
10/13/2007 M4.50 INCH JEFFERSON KS TRAINED SPOTTER

APPROXIMATELY AN INCH OF WATER WAS RUNNING OVER THE
STREET IN FRONT OF SPOTTERS HOUSE.

0935 AM FLASH FLOOD HIAWATHA 39.85N 95.54W
10/13/2007 BROWN KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

4 TO 6 INCHES OF WATER REPORTED TO BE OVER ROADWAYS IN
HIAWATHA.

1200 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 WNW HIAWATHA 39.87N 95.59W
10/13/2007 M3.70 INCH BROWN KS TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL.

1210 PM HEAVY RAIN POWHATTAN 39.76N 95.63W
10/13/2007 M4.10 INCH BROWN KS TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL.

&&

$$

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2070

ACUS11 KWNS 132120
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132120
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-132215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2070
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0420 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SWRN KS...CENTRAL/ERN OK PANHANDLE...THE
NERN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR NWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 132120Z - 132215Z

MODERATE CU HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG A SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE
EXTENDING FROM THE NERN TX PANHANDLE NEWD INTO CENTRAL KS. ISOLATED
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY 23Z WITH POTENTIAL FOR SVR
WIND/HAIL.

LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE CU DEVELOPING ALONG A SFC
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL KS SWWD TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR DDC AND
THEN ALONG A DRYLINE INTO THE CENTRAL/ERN OK PANHANDLE AND NERN TX
PANHANDLE. RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS LESS THAN 50 J/KG OF
MLCINH ALONG BOTH BOUNDARIES. A FEW MORE HOURS OF HEATING MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED SVR TSTMS INVOF OF THE SFC LOW/BOUNDARY ACROSS
SWRN/CENTRAL KS WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. COVERAGE OF
TSTMS MAY BE MITIGATED AS THE SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND
SWRN/CENTRAL KS BOUNDARY RETREAT WWD OVER THE NEXT FEW IN RESPONSE
TO STRENGTHENING PRESSURE FALLS OVER SERN CO. MORE LIMITED
CONVERGENCE FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD ALSO HINDER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NRN TX PANHANDLE. STRONG MID LEVEL
FLOW /50-60 KTS ON THE TCU PROFILER/ AND MODERATE INSTABILITY /
MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG/ SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
AT LEAST A MARGINAL SVR THREAT WITH THE ANY TSTM THAT MAY DEVELOP.
PRESENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION PRECLUDES A
GREATER PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE.

.CROSBIE.. 10/13/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

38529917 38130001 37520053 37300116 36800173 35920182
35580177 35420186 35200180 35090166 35110144 35380102
35850068 36240029 36769990 37139914 37489910 37869873
38369852

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KKEY [132103]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 132103
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
503 PM EDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0930 AM FUNNEL CLOUD 6 S MARATHON 24.63N 81.08W
10/12/2007 GMZ053 FL PUBLIC

A SNORKEL BOAT CREW MEMBER REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD OVER
HAWK CHANNEL ABOUT 5 MILES SOUTH OF SOMBRERO BEACH.

0935 AM WATER SPOUT 3 SSW GRASSY KEY 24.72N 80.98W
10/12/2007 GMZ053 FL PARK/FOREST SRVC

A CURRY HAMMOCK STATE PARK RANGER REPORTED A WATERSPOUT
OVER HAWK CHANNEL IN THE VICINITY OF LITTLE CRAWL KEY.
MOVEMENT WAS TOWARD THE WEST.

0935 AM WATER SPOUT 2 SE CONCH KEY 24.77N 80.87W
10/12/2007 GMZ053 FL OTHER FEDERAL

A FLORIDA KEYS NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY EMPLOYEE
REPORTED A WATERSPOUT OVER HAWK CHANNEL NEAR MILE MARKER
63.

&&

$$

KASPER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 131950
SWODY1
SPC AC 131948

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

VALID 132000Z - 141200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
EWD ACROSS NEB AND NRN KS...

..SYNOPSIS...
WRN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE EWD THIS FORECAST PERIOD
TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND SWRN STATES. EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE
ANALYSIS INDICATED A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM W CENTRAL KS
INTO SERN CO...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD THROUGH CENTRAL KS TO
CENTRAL MO. A SECONDARY WARM FRONT/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY
EXTENDED NEWD FROM W CENTRAL KS INTO SERN NEB/SWRN IA.

..FRONT RANGE FROM CO INTO SERN WY AND PART OF NEB PANHANDLE...
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED SOME SURFACE
HEATING COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES HAS RESULTED IN A NARROW
AXIS OF DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. REGIONAL RADARS AND
LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED TSTMS HAD DEVELOPED IN THIS AREA FROM NRN CO
INTO SERN WY. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK...
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CLOUD LAYER SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT STRONGER STORMS WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR HAIL. SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DECREASE WITH EWD EXTENT INTO SWRN NEB THIS
AFTERNOON...GIVEN PRESENCE OF A COOLER...MORE STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS
THIS AREA PER EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.

..CENTRAL PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY...
ONGOING CLUSTER OF TSTMS SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AS LLJ INTO THIS
REGION DECREASES IN STRENGTH. MEANWHILE...WSR-88D VADS/WIND
PROFILERS SHOWED LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS KS/OK HAVE BACKED TO SLY IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. EXIT REGION 50-65 KT SWLY
MID LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. ASCENT FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION WITH THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL WAA/
DESTABILIZATION AS SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING SUGGESTS TSTMS
WILL DEVELOP AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE PRIMARILY N OF THE WARM FRONT
FROM NERN CO INTO NEB AND NRN KS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. WHILE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG N OF WARM
FRONT...THE RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH
STRENGTHENING CLOUD LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO POSE A
THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL.

.PETERS.. 10/13/2007

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2069

ACUS11 KWNS 131923
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131923
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-132100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2069
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN CO...SE WY...WRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 131923Z - 132100Z

A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS NRN
CO...SE WY AND WRN NEB. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THE SITUATION
APPEARS MARGINAL...WW ISSUANCE REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. A 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET IS EJECTING OUT OF
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS INCREASING ACROSS
THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS ACCORDING TO RUC ANALYSIS. THIS COMBINED WITH
WARMING SFC TEMPS ARE ALLOWING FOR STORM INITIATION IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN NRN CO...SE WY AND ALONG THE CHEYENNE RIDGE NEAR THE
CO-NEB-WY STATE-LINE INTERSECTION. THE SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SHOWN ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED HAIL
THREAT WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED STORMS OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS
ESPECIALLY AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED MICROBURST
THREAT.

.BROYLES.. 10/13/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS...

40710277 41240223 42050225 42470318 42270441 41770521
41100544 40250518 40260391

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KEAX [131910]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KEAX 131910
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
209 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0209 PM HEAVY RAIN EFFINGHAM 39.52N 95.40W
10/13/2007 M3.20 INCH ATCHISON KS CO-OP OBSERVER

3.20 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE EVENT BEGAN OVERNIGHT.

&&

$$

GAMIS

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KMLB [131729]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMLB 131729
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
128 PM EDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0105 PM FUNNEL CLOUD SEBASTIAN INLET 27.85N 80.44W
10/13/2007 INDIAN RIVER FL COUNTY OFFICIAL

SEVERAL REPORTS OF WELL DEFINED FUNNEL CLOUD RECEIVED
FROM PARK RANGER AT SEBASTIAN INLET STATE PARK, SHERIFFS
OFFICE AND PUBLIC. FUNNEL EXTENDED CLOSE TO SURFACE BUT
DID NOT TOUCH DOWN. REPORTS FROM 1255 PM TO 105 PM.

&&

$$

MRT

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 131728
SWODY2
SPC AC 131726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SRN PLAINS...

..SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE SWRN STATES AT 12Z
SUNDAY WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE PLAINS AS NEXT UPSTREAM PACIFIC TROUGH
DEEPENS AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW BAND OF
SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MO/MID MS
VALLEYS TO STRENGTHEN TO 50-60 KT. IN THE LOW LEVELS...ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK FROM WRN KS ENEWD...BUT WEAKENING
WITH TIME...AS IT SHOULD REACH SWRN IA BY 12Z MONDAY. TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL SPREAD EWD AND IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH AND OVERTAKE THE
DRY LINE ACROSS CENTRAL KS TO NWRN OK DURING THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH A SIMILAR TREND OCCURRING SWD INTO NW TX THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

..PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS...
AS THE UPPER SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW/TRAILING COLD FRONT
SPREAD EWD INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE WRN GULF INTO THE SRN
PLAINS. GULF MOISTURE WILL RETURN NWD WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 60S EXPECTED TO REACH FROM WRN/CENTRAL OK TO CENTRAL KS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
ATOP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL RESULT IN A NARROW AXIS OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND E OF THE DRY LINE
WHERE SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BE THE STRONGEST.

AT 12Z SUNDAY...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS MAY BE
ONGOING FROM CENTRAL OK INTO ERN KS ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT... WITH
GREATER TSTM COVERAGE FROM DAY 1 LIKELY FARTHER N WITHIN WAA/
ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO THE N OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS NEB INTO IA.
THE NRN ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WITHIN WAA
REGIME...WITH STRONGER STORMS ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY INTO SRN NEB
POSING A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT GIVEN PROXIMITY TO GREATER
INSTABILITY.

GIVEN THE POSITIVE TILT OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND SOMEWHAT WEAK HEIGHT
FALLS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR AS
THE COLD FRONT MERGES WITH THE DRY LINE IN CENTRAL KS TO WRN OK
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WEAKENING THE CAP. STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WINDS
WILL SUPPORT STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
AN INITIAL BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH A
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT IS ALSO POSSIBLE...GIVEN SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL VEERING/SHEAR
AND LOW LCLS. A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO FORM BY SUNDAY EVENING
AS LLJ VEERS...BECOMING PARALLEL TO FLOW ALOFT.

DESPITE THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING SUNDAY EVENING...THE CONTINUED
INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OK/KS MAINTAINING LOW LCLS
COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ SUGGEST AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT COULD PERSIST ACROSS THIS REGION AS THE SQUALL LINE ADVANCES
EWD. EVENTUAL DECREASE IN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED LATER
SUNDAY EVENING AS THE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY DIMINISHES.

.PETERS.. 10/13/2007

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KEAX [131719]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KEAX 131719
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1218 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1216 PM HEAVY RAIN WESTWOOD 39.04N 94.61W
10/13/2007 M3.05 INCH WYANDOTTE KS PUBLIC

2 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE 9 AM, WITH A STORM TOTAL OF 3.05
INCHES.

&&

$$

GAMIS

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KTOP [131717]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 131717
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1216 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1210 PM HEAVY RAIN POWHATTAN 39.76N 95.63W
10/13/2007 M4.10 INCH BROWN KS TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL.

&&

$$

EK

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KTOP [131714]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 131714
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1213 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 WNW HIAWATHA 39.87N 95.59W
10/13/2007 M3.70 INCH BROWN KS TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL.

&&

$$

EK

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KEAX [131643]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KEAX 131643
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1143 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1141 AM HEAVY RAIN LENEXA 38.96N 94.79W
10/13/2007 M5.50 INCH JOHNSON KS TRAINED SPOTTER

5.50 INCHES OF RAIN MEASURED SINCE THE EVENT BEGAN
OVERNIGHT. INTERSECTION OF 95TH STREET AND INTERSTATE
435.

&&

$$

GAMIS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 131602
SWODY1
SPC AC 131559

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1059 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

VALID 131630Z - 141200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

..SYNOPSIS...
GREAT BASIN UPR TROUGH EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E INTO CO/NM BY
EARLY SUNDAY AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE PROGRESSES E TO THE MID MS VLY.
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW NOW VICINITY SE CO/SWRN KS BORDER SHOULD REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THRU THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY NNE TO
NEAR HLC BY EARLY SUNDAY.

..CNTRL HI PLNS INTO LWR MO VLY...
AN AXIS OF PERSISTENT LOW LVL WAA WILL EXIST THROUGH THE PERIOD
ACROSS MUCH OF NEB ESE INTO THE LWR MO VLY...N AND NE OF
AFOREMENTIONED CO/KS SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT WHICH LIES ACROSS
CENTRAL KS/MO. ONGOING MCS IN NE KS/NW MO SUPPORTED BY THIS
EFFECTIVE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. THIS SETUP IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NEB THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY. WHILE ELEVATED INSTABILITY GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000
J/KG N OF WARM FRONT...THE RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING CLOUD LAYER SHEAR PROFILES EXPECTED TO
POSE A THREAT FOR SVR HAIL.

FARTHER W...ADDITIONAL...MORE NEARLY SFC-BASED STORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTN/EARLY TONIGHT IN NERN CO AND SE WY. EXIT REGION OF
APPROACHING 100 KT UPR LVL JET STREAK...COUPLED WITH NELY
UPSLOPE FLOW...SHOULD FAVOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. COOL MID LVL TEMPERATURES
SUGGEST THAT EMBEDDED STORMS COULD ALSO POSE A THREAT FOR SVR
HAIL...ESPECIALLY DURING EARLY STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT.
THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL SPREAD E INTO WRN NEB AND PERHAPS NW KS
OVERNIGHT.

FARTHER S...RATHER LIMITED LOW LVL MOISTURE RETURN...EXISTING 700 MB
WARM PLUME AND RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LVL CONVERGENCE CAST DOUBT ON
LIKELIHOOD FOR SFC-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY ALONG LEE SFC
TROUGH/DRY LINE FROM WRN KS SSW TO THE TX PANHANDLE.
NEVERTHELESS...A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH
HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO WILL EXIST ALONG THIS CORRIDOR. THIS
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE GREATEST INVOF WARM FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION
IN NW/N CNTRL KS...AND SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SWD EXTENT.

.HALES/CROSBIE.. 10/13/2007

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KTOP [131507]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 131507
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1006 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0745 AM FLASH FLOOD WILLIAMSTOWN 39.06N 95.33W
10/13/2007 JEFFERSON KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

DELAYED REPORT. APPROXIMATELY ONE AND A HALF FEET OF
WATER OVER HWY 24 AT WILLIAMSTOWN.

&&

$$

EK

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KTOP [131438]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 131438
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
938 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0935 AM FLASH FLOOD HIAWATHA 39.85N 95.54W
10/13/2007 BROWN KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

4 TO 6 INCHES OF WATER REPORTED TO BE OVER ROADWAYS IN
HIAWATHA.

&&

$$

EK

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KKEY [131424]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 131424
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1023 AM EDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0937 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 S BOOT KEY 24.63N 81.11W
10/13/2007 M39 MPH GMZ053 FL C-MAN STATION

A RAPIDLY-MOVING SHOWER PRODUCED A WIND GUST OF 34 KNOTS
AT THE SOMBRERO KEY LIGHT C-MAN STATION AT 937 AM EDT.

&&

$$

BS

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KTOP [131343]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 131343
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
843 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0836 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 NE PERRY 39.13N 95.33W
10/13/2007 M4.50 INCH JEFFERSON KS TRAINED SPOTTER

APPROXIMATELY AN INCH OF WATER WAS RUNNING OVER THE
STREET IN FRONT OF SPOTTERS HOUSE.

&&

$$

EK

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 131256
SWODY1
SPC AC 131253

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

VALID 131300Z - 141200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HI PLNS INTO THE
LWR MO VLY...

..SYNOPSIS...
GRT BASIN UPR LOW/TROUGH EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E INTO CO/NW NM BY
EARLY SUNDAY AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE PROGRESSES E TO THE MID MS VLY.
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW NOW ON THE CO/KS BORDER SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY TODAY BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY NNE TO NEAR HLC TONIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY. STRONG SYSTEM NOW CROSSING THE NORTHEAST SHOULD REINFORCE
SFC RIDGE FROM THE OH VLY TO THE ERN GULF CST. THIS...IN TURN...
SHOULD LIMIT BREADTH/DEPTH OF RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL PLNS.

..CNTRL HI PLNS INTO LWR MO VLY...
AN AXIS OF PERSISTENT LOW LVL WAA WILL EXIST THROUGH THE PERIOD
ACROSS MUCH OF NEB ESE INTO THE LWR MO VLY...N AND NE OF
AFOREMENTIONED CO/KS SFC LOW. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING CURRENT
MCS IN NE KS/NW MO...AND LIKELY WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF
ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NEB THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. DESPITE
RATHER MODEST MOISTURE INFLUX...SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY
/MUCAPE OF 1000 TO 1500 J PER KG/ SHOULD EXIST TO SUPPORT OCCASIONAL
UPDRAFTS POSING A THREAT FOR SVR HAIL GIVEN 30-35 KT SW TO WSWLY
CLOUD-LYR SHEAR.

FARTHER W...ADDITIONAL...MORE NEARLY SFC-BASED STORMS EXPECTED THIS
AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT IN NRN CO AND SE WY. DEEP SHEAR WILL DECREASE
WITH TIME AS CENTER OF UPR SYSTEM APPROACHES...AND ASCENT IN EXIT
REGION OF ASSOCIATED 100 KT UPR LVL JET STREAK...COUPLED WITH NELY
UPSLOPE FLOW...SHOULD FAVOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. THESE
FACTORS MAY LIMIT CHANCES FOR DISCRETE STORM STRUCTURES. BUT COOL
MID LVL TEMPERATURES SUGGEST THAT EMBEDDED STORMS COULD ALSO POSE A
THREAT FOR SVR HAIL...ESPECIALLY DURING EARLY STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT.
THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL SPREAD E INTO WRN NEB AND PERHAPS NW KS
EARLY SUNDAY.

FARTHER S...RATHER LIMITED LOW LVL MOISTURE RETURN...EXISTING 700 MB
WARM PLUME AND RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LVL CONVERGENCE CAST DOUBT ON
LIKELIHOOD FOR SFC-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY ALONG LEE SFC
TROUGH/DRY LINE FROM WRN KS SSW TO THE TX PANHANDLE.
NEVERTHELESS...A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH
HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO WILL EXIST ALONG THIS CORRIDOR. THIS
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE GREATEST INVOF WARM FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION
IN NW/N CNTRL KS...AND SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SWD EXTENT.

.CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 10/13/2007

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KEAX [131240]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KEAX 131240
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
740 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0738 AM HAIL RENO 39.05N 95.12W
10/13/2007 E0.75 INCH LEAVENWORTH KS EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

$$

GAMIS

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KTOP [131138]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 131138
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
637 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0619 AM HAIL 3 S HARVEYVILLE 38.75N 95.96W
10/13/2007 E0.88 INCH WABAUNSEE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

2 INCHES OF STORM TOTAL RAIN ALSO REPORTED.

&&

$$

EK

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KTOP [131124]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 131124
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
624 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0621 AM HAIL 2 W BURLINGAME 38.75N 95.87W
10/13/2007 E1.00 INCH OSAGE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

EK

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KTOP [131101]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 131101
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
601 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0554 AM HAIL BURLINGAME 38.75N 95.83W
10/13/2007 E1.75 INCH OSAGE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS FALLING IN BURLINGAME.

&&

$$

EK

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KTOP [131023]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 131023
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
522 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 AM HAIL PAXICO 39.07N 96.17W
10/13/2007 M0.75 INCH WABAUNSEE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

SBLAIR

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KTOP [131018]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 131018
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
517 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0509 AM HAIL PAXICO 39.07N 96.17W
10/13/2007 M1.00 INCH WABAUNSEE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

SBLAIR

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KTOP [131006]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 131006
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
506 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0455 AM HAIL ALMA 39.02N 96.29W
10/13/2007 E1.75 INCH WABAUNSEE KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

WOLTERS

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 130900
SWOD48
SPC AC 130859

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

VALID 161200Z - 211200Z

..DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES APPARENT 24 HOURS AGO CONTINUE THIS
FORECAST. THE CURRENT RUN OF THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING A MID-LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS RUN FROM 24 HOURS AGO...WHILE
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT THAN ITS OWN FORECAST 24 HOURS PRIOR.

MEANWHILE...THE MOST RECENT 00Z RUN FROM THE GFS REVEALS A MID-LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN ENTIRELY DIFFERENT FROM THE RUN 24 HOURS AGO...DESPITE
THE FACT THAT THE RUN 24 HOURS AGO RESEMBLES THE LATEST ECMWF RUN.

OVERALL...THESE DRASTIC VARIATIONS IN MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH TIME
SUGGEST THAT PREDICTABILITY AT THE LARGE SCALE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
THOUGH MODELS DO AGREE IN THE LARGE-SCALE MEAN THAT CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...DETERMINING WHICH DAYS THE SMALLER-SCALE TROUGHS WILL EJECT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS REMAINS DIFFICULT. THUS...WILL NOT INCLUDE
ANY SEVERE WEATHER AREAS THIS FORECAST...DESPITE THE FACT THAT
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY OCCUR SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD /INVOF DAYS 5-7...I.E. WED.
OCT. 17-FRI. OCT. 19/.

.GOSS.. 10/13/2007

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KTOP [130728]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 130728
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
228 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0224 AM HAIL 3 S ALMA 38.97N 96.29W
10/13/2007 M1.00 INCH WABAUNSEE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL FOR 5 MINUTES WITH GROUND COVERED

&&

$$

SBLAIR

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 130625
SWODY3
SPC AC 130624

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0124 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MO VALLEY SWD INTO NERN TX...

..SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH/LOW INITIALLY OVER THE PLAINS IS FORECAST TO LIFT
SLOWLY ENEWD WHILE TAKING ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT WITH TIME. AT THE
SURFACE...COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE
PLAINS TOWARD THE MS VALLEY AND SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..FAR ERN KS/MO SWD INTO NERN TX...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY
EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS. WHILE THIS CASTS DOUBT ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...AREAS OF
MIXED-LAYER CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG BY AFTERNOON SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS SPREADING EWD AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS MO
AND AR...AND PERHAPS SOME STORM RE-INITIATION BACK W CLOSER TO THE
COLD FRONT.

WITH 60 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL JET FORECAST TO PERSIST ATOP THE WARM
SECTOR...SHEAR WILL ONCE AGAIN PROVE FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS. AGAIN -- DEGREE OF INSTABILITY MAY
PROVE TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR...BUT THE ANTICIPATED WIND FIELD
SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH
AN ISOLATED TORNADO ASSUMING VIGOROUS UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT.

OVERNIGHT...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE MS/LOWER
OH VALLEYS AND PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AIDED BY PERSISTENT
LOW-LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WANE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS HOWEVER...WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL
COOLING/STABILIZATION.

.GOSS.. 10/13/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 130601
SWODY1
SPC AC 130559

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND
ADJACENT CNTRL PLAINS...

..SYNOPSIS...
MODERATELY AMPLIFIED FLOW REGIME WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE THIS
PERIOD AS STRONG UPPER LOW SWINGS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN NEW ENGLAND
AND LARGER BUT NO LESS INTENSE TROUGH/LOW SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS TO THE CNTRL PLAINS. WRN/CNTRL U.S. SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE
DYNAMIC AS 60-75KT CYCLONICALLY CURVED MID LEVEL WIND MAX EMERGES
OUT ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATE TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY 12H
500MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 60-90M. RESULTING SURFACE CYCLONE WILL
CONSOLIDATE ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS THROUGH LATE TODAY AND TRACK ONLY
SLOWLY NEWD TO NWRN KS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN STRENGTHENING
DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW TRANSLATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH...DRYLINE SHOULD MIX EWD/NEWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND
ARC FROM WEST TX TO TX PNHDL THEN BACK NWD/NWWD TO THE LOW NEAR
CO/KS BORDER. WARM FRONT WILL START OUT THE DAY OVER KS WHERE SMALL
MCS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS ERN KS/MO. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AND
IN RESPONSE TO MASS ADJUSTMENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SUBSEQUENT LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS...FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT NWD
THROUGH THE PERIOD TO A POSITION NEAR THE KS/NEB BORDER BY TONIGHT.

..SRN HIGH PLAINS TO CNTRL PLAINS...
RELATIVELY UNPERTURBED MOIST AXIS CHARACTERIZED BY 8-12C DEWPOINT
PLUME AT 850MB AND NEAR 60F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE SITUATED
ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. DIURNAL HEATING AND STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST DESTABILIZATION IN A CORRIDOR
FROM WEST TX TO WRN KS WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG POSSIBLE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. DESPITE MIXING ALONG THE DRYLINE AND INCREASING
LARGE SCALE LIFT/QG-FORCING WITH APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH...CONVECTIVE INITIATION WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR WILL BE
INHIBITED BY RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND LACK OF GREATER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ALMOST ALL THE LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
INDICATES A VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR STORM INITIATION FROM TX NWD
ACROSS MOST OF WRN KS THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...DESPITE THESE
SIGNALS...PATTERN RECOGNITION AND MAGNITUDE AND TIMING OF FORCING
FOR ASCENT EMERGING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ALL POINT TO A
CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORMS INITIATING NEAR
THE DRYLINE BEFORE SUNSET. THIS POTENTIAL WARRANTS AT LEAST LOW
HAIL/WIND PROBABILITIES...INCREASING IN MAGNITUDE WITH NWD EXTENT.

FARTHER NORTH...FROM NEAR THE SURFACE LOW/DRYLINE/WARM FRONT OVER
ERN CO/WCNTRL TO NWRN KS...AND EWD ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
OVER NEB...ROBUST TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS MORE LIKELY FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. VERY STRONG SHEAR AND FORCING WILL
COINCIDE WITH LOW LEVEL FOCUSED ASCENT AND PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL SRH
NEAR THE LOW AND FRONT. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO OR TWO...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL...IF DISCRETE
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION CAN INITIATE WITHIN RELATIVELY NARROW WARM
SECTOR. OTHERWISE...STRENGTH OF SLOPED ASCENT AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF
40-50KT ACROSS THE WARM FRONT WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
NUMEROUS ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THIS POTENTIAL MAY PERSIST ACROSS
PARTS OF NEB WELL INTO THE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET MAINTAINS MASS
INFLOW AND UPPER TROUGH PROVIDES LARGE SCALE ASCENT.

.CARBIN/JEWELL.. 10/13/2007

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 130538
SWODY2
SPC AC 130535

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SRN PLAINS...

..SYNOPSIS...
WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO NEAR THE W COAST LATE...AND AN
UPPER LOW SLOWLY WILL CONTINUE MOVING NEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES....THE MAIN FEATURE WITH RESPECT TO THE
CONVECTIVE/SEVERE FORECAST THIS PERIOD WILL BE AN UPPER TROUGH
EJECTING FROM THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS.

ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS KS/OK...WITH
TRAILING- COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

..PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS...
LARGE AREA OF STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
CENTERED ON NEB...WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM
ADVECTION N OF SURFACE WARM FRONT. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS ON THE SRN
SIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND POSSIBLY POSING A THREAT FOR MARGINAL
HAIL.

FURTHER S ALONG COLD FRONT FROM KS SWD INTO N CENTRAL TX...CAPPING
SHOULD SUPPRESS STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING/BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTENING/MIXING AND FOCUSED UVV ALONG APPROACHING COLD FRONT --
AIDED BY THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH...SHOULD WEAKEN CAP
PROGRESSIVELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...IT APPEARS THAT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AIDED
BY ROUGHLY 1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE. UPON STORM
INITIATION...UPDRAFTS SHOULD RAPIDLY ORGANIZE -- AS AMPLE CAPE
COMBINED WITH 50 TO 60 KT SWLY FLOW AT MID-LEVELS SPREADING ATOP SLY
FLOW WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTS IN AN ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. WHILE STORMS SHOULD MOVE FAIRLY RAPIDLY
NEWD AWAY FROM THE FRONT...EWD EXTENT OF THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY
STABILIZING AIRMASS DURING THE EVENING. ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS...AN ISOLATED TORNADO
COULD ALSO OCCUR AS SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL VEERING/SHEAR AND LOW LCLS
ARE EXPECTED.

AS LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...STORMS
SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE. HOWEVER...A SLOW DECREASE IN SEVERE
THREAT IS ANTICIPATED AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.

.GOSS.. 10/13/2007

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