SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140127
KSZ000-NEZ000-140300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2071
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0827 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...KS...NE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 140127Z - 140300Z
RECENT ISOLATED TSTM INITIATION ALONG/NORTH OF STRONG SW-NE ORIENTED
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FROM SWRN TO NCNTRL KS IS PROBABLY THE
BEGINNING OF MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. LATEST INDICATIONS SUGGEST VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THIS
ZONE WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND A SEVERE TSTM WATCH
IS BEING CONSIDERED.
LATEST DDC OBSERVED SOUNDING APPEARS REPRESENTATIVE OF AMBIENT
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT /NAMELY ABOVE 850 MB/ IN WHICH THESE
STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.0
C/KM AND MUCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. GIVEN THIS MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN THE RANGE OF 40-50KT...IN CONCERT WITH
INCREASINGLY STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS...NUMEROUS ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING A FEW
SUPERCELLS...ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. THE BULK
OF THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE ROOTED ABOVE WEAKLY CAPPED
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL.
NONETHELESS...ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SUFFICIENT SEVERE STORM
COVERAGE TO WARRANT A WATCH.
.CARBIN.. 10/14/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
39500043 40229847 40109719 39169694 38519737 37320013
37240083 37700154 38690152 39150109
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