KAMA [280358]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 280358
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1058 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1011 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 N TWITTY 35.34N 100.24W
09/27/2013 WHEELER TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN ON HIGHWAY 83


&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1300828

$$

BUFFALO

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KGID [280349]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 280349
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1049 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1010 PM TSTM WND GST 2 SW ELM CREEK 40.70N 99.40W
09/27/2013 E55 MPH BUFFALO NE PUBLIC

TRUCK DRIVER ON INTERSTATE 80 NEAR DAWSON AND BUFFALO
COUNTY LINE ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS NEAR 55 MPH. TIME
ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.


&&

$$

ODER

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1920

ACUS11 KWNS 280340
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280340
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-280515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1920
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1040 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...NWRN OK...SWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 536...

VALID 280340Z - 280515Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 536
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE...WITH A FEW OCCASIONALLY
POSING RISKS OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WHILE THE ISOLATED
SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...NO FURTHER WATCHES
ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE
EASTERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OK...WHERE OCCASIONAL
GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL HAVE BEEN REPORTED. OTHER STORMS HAVE
BEEN INTENSIFYING ALONG THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN KS AND
THE OK PANHANDLE. DIURNAL COOLING HAS RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT LOSS
OF INSTABILITY THIS EVENING...WHICH SHOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO
THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. HOWEVER...SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE MAIN LARGE SCALE FORCING IS NOW SPREADING INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS
WILL NOT WARRANT ANOTHER WATCH BEYOND 06Z.

..HART.. 09/28/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 39030084 39269934 38299809 36899823 35139942 34300107
34530218 35630235 37560151 39030084

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KGID [280323]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 280323
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1023 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0955 PM TSTM WND GST LEXINGTON AIRPORT 40.79N 99.78W
09/27/2013 M53 MPH DAWSON NE AWOS


&&

$$

HEINLEIN

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KGID [280319]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 280319
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1019 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1006 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 N OVERTON 40.80N 99.54W
09/27/2013 DAWSON NE TRAINED SPOTTER

4 TO 6 INCH DIAMETER TREE BRANCHES BLOWN DOWN. ESTIMATED
60 MPH WINDS.


&&

$$

GUERRERO

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KGLD [280223]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 280223
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
823 PM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 PM HAIL 3 E MCCOOK 40.20N 100.56W
09/27/2013 E0.75 INCH RED WILLOW NE LAW ENFORCEMENT


&&

$$

MBULLER

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KGID [280212]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 280212
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
912 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0613 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 NNW OXFORD 40.31N 99.66W
09/27/2013 FURNAS NE TRAINED SPOTTER

AN IRRIGATION PIVOT WAS BLOWN OVER ON HIGHWAY 34 NEAR
ROAD 436. THIS WAS REPORTED BY A SPOTTER THAT CALLED WFO
GOODLAND KANSAS AND WAS THEN RELAYED TO WFO HASTINGS
NEBRASKA. THE TIME OF THE EVENT WAS ESTIMATED FROM RADAR
DATA.


&&

$$

HEINLEIN

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KAMA [280103]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 280103
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
803 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0750 PM TSTM WND GST 2 WSW CLARENDON 34.92N 100.93W
09/27/2013 M58 MPH DONLEY TX MESONET


&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1300827

$$

EA

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KAMA [280102]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 280102
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
801 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0759 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 NE ALANREED 35.21N 100.73W
09/27/2013 GRAY TX PUBLIC

LARGE TREE BLOCKING THE ROAD FOR THE RAMP TO INTERSTATE
40.


&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1300826

$$

KRAUSE

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KSEW [280054]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 280054
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
554 PM PDT FRI SEP 27 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0525 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 6 SW WESTPORT 46.83N 124.20W
09/27/2013 PZZ156 WA TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED A HIGH FUNNEL CLOUD TO THE WEST OF
WESTPORT WHICH DID NOT TOUCH THE GROUND. RADAR DATA FROM
THE SAME TIME SHOWS WEAK ROTATION ABOUT 6 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF WESTPORT.


&&

$$

JSMITH

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1919

ACUS11 KWNS 280045
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280044
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-280215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1919
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PANHANDLE...NWRN OK...SCNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 536...

VALID 280044Z - 280215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 536
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS...THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE...AND
NORTHWEST OK THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...A BROKEN LINE OF INTENSE STORMS EXTENDS FROM NEAR
GARDEN CITY KS SOUTHWARD TO EAST OF AMARILLO TX. SEVERAL OF THESE
STORMS HAVE OCCASIONALLY INTENSIFIED TO SEVERE LIMITS...PRODUCING
GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. SUNSET AND THE RESULTANT COOLING OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...BUT LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRENGTHENING DURING THAT
PERIOD. 00Z RAOBS FROM AMA/DDC/OUN VERIFIED THAT MLCAPE VALUES OF
500-750 J/KG WERE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL
PRODUCTION...AND PROBABLY ONLY IN THE STRONGER ROTATING STORMS.
NEVERTHELESS...A THREAT OF LOCALLY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.

..HART.. 09/28/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 34930120 36860093 37890086 38879993 38719815 37399792
34969985 34390063 34930120

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 280033
SWODY1
SPC AC 280031

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

VALID 280100Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...PLAINS...
PRE-FRONTAL BANDS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA ARE EMBEDDED
WITHIN A NARROW PLUME OF LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE EMANATING
FROM THE LOWER LATITUDE EASTERN PACIFIC. LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW OF
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND COULD EVENTUALLY CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING CONVECTIVE
TRENDS LATER THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT...AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS
EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

IT REMAINS A BIT UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS LEAD ACTIVITY...OR ANOTHER
NARROW LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...NOW FORMING TO THE WEST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION...WILL BECOME MOST PROMINENT THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...AS THE
MID/UPPER SHORT WAVE IMPULSE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT...MODELS
SUGGEST SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET STRENGTHENING IN EXCESS OF 50 KT ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY BETWEEN NOW AND 05-07Z.
ALTHOUGH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE WILL REMAIN MODEST TO WEAK IN
MAGNITUDE...IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN FAIRLY VIGOROUS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING...INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING. AND THE DOWNWARD TRANSPORT
OF HIGHER MOMENTUM IN THE STRONGER ACTIVITY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS. FOR THIS GENERAL REASON...SLIGHT
RISK PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA...AND A BIT EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.

..KERR.. 09/28/2013

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KDDC [280032]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 280032
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
732 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0725 PM HAIL 8 NNW SUBLETTE 37.59N 100.88W
09/27/2013 E0.75 INCH HASKELL KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MSCOTT

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KGLD [280032]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 280032
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
631 PM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0623 PM TSTM WND GST 12 N EDSON 39.51N 101.57W
09/27/2013 E60 MPH SHERMAN KS NWS EMPLOYEE

BLOWING DUST REDUCED VISIBILITY TO A QUARTER MILE. THIS
OCCURRED AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PASSED.


&&

$$

BRB

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KGID [280027]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 280027
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
727 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0558 PM TSTM WND DMG BEAVER CITY 40.14N 99.83W
09/27/2013 FURNAS NE EMERGENCY MNGR

50 TO 60 MPH WINDS. TREE BRANCHES UP TO 5 INCHES IN
DIAMETER BLOWN DOWN...AND A ROOF BLOWN OFF A SMALL METAL
BUILDING.


&&

$$

GUERRERO

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KDDC [280021]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 280021
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
721 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0715 PM HAIL 1 ENE SATANTA 37.44N 100.98W
09/27/2013 E1.00 INCH HASKELL KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MSCOTT

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KGLD [272359]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 272359
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
559 PM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 PM DUST STORM 1 W KANORADO 39.34N 102.06W
09/27/2013 KIT CARSON CO LAW ENFORCEMENT

NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY IN BLOWING DUST REPORTED BY LAW
ENFORCEMENT. THIS WAS JUST WEST OF THE STATELINE. THERE
WAS NO ESTIMATE OF THE WIND SPEED.


&&

$$

MBULLER

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KTFX [272353]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 272353
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
553 PM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 WSW SAINT MARY 48.69N 113.71W
09/27/2013 M72 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

72 MPHT WIND GUST AT LOGAN PASS. TIME OF EVENT IS
ESTIMATED.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KTFX [272352]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 272352
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
552 PM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 WSW SAINT MARY 48.69N 113.71W
09/27/2013 M66 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

66 MPH WIND GUST AT LOGAN PASS. TIME OF EVENT IS
ESTIMATED.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KGID [272340]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 272340
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
640 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0611 PM TSTM WND GST 2 E EDISON 40.28N 99.74W
09/27/2013 E50 MPH FURNAS NE TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER ESTIMATED 40-50 MPH WINDS

0635 PM TSTM WND GST 4 ENE OXFORD 40.28N 99.56W
09/27/2013 E50 MPH HARLAN NE TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER ESTIMATED 40-50 MPH WINDS.


&&

$$

GUERRERO

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KAMA [272335]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 272335
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
635 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0541 PM TSTM WND GST 3 NNE WAYSIDE 34.83N 101.52W
09/27/2013 M65 MPH ARMSTRONG TX BROADCAST MEDIA


&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1300825

$$

EA

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KGID [272331]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KGID 272331
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
631 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0613 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 NW OXFORD 40.28N 99.67W
09/27/2013 FURNAS NE TRAINED SPOTTER

10 TO 12 INCH DIAMETER TREE BLOWN DOWN ON VAN.


&&

$$

GUERRERO

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KLUB [272322]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 272322
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
622 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0610 PM TSTM WND GST 2 ENE TULIA 34.55N 101.74W
09/27/2013 M69 MPH SWISHER TX MESONET

WEST TEXAS MEOSNET REPORT


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1300444

$$

JWJ

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KGID [272318]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 272318
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
618 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0613 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 NW OXFORD 40.28N 99.67W
09/27/2013 FURNAS NE TRAINED SPOTTER

10 TO 12 INCH DIAMETER TREE BLOWN DOWN ON VAN.


&&

$$

GUERRERO

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KLUB [272303]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 272303
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
603 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0520 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 S HAPPY 34.65N 101.86W
09/27/2013 SWISHER TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

NUMEROUS POWER POLES DOWN ALONG AND NEAR INTERSTATE 27


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1300443

$$

JWJ

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KLUB [272252]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KLUB 272252
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
552 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0509 PM TSTM WND GST 7 NNW TULIA 34.63N 101.82W
09/27/2013 M69 MPH SWISHER TX STORM CHASER


&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME

EVENT NUMBER LUB1300442

$$

JWJ

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KLUB [272251]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLUB 272251
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
551 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 PM TSTM WND GST 7 NNW TULIA 34.63N 101.82W
09/27/2013 M69 MPH SWISHER TX STORM CHASER


&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1300442

$$

JWJ

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1918

ACUS11 KWNS 272246
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272245
NEZ000-KSZ000-272345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1918
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0545 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN KS...CENTRAL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 272245Z - 272345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL KS WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NEB THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

DISCUSSION...A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED ALONG
A PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM LANE COUNTY KS NORTHWARD INTO
RED WILLOW/FURNAS COUNTIES NEB. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD AT 35-40 KNOTS AND WILL LIKELY TRACK INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL NEB DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A CORRIDOR OF MARGINAL
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AHEAD OF THE STORMS...
SUGGESTING SOME RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REACHING THE GROUND IN
THE STRONGEST STORMS. WINDS FIELDS ARE RELATIVELY STRONG...POSING
THE POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AS WELL. THE
GREATEST RISK WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM OVER NORTON
COUNTY KS AS IT TRACKS ROUGHLY ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY NEAR AND
WEST OF GRAND ISLAND DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WE ARE
MONITORING FOR INCREASING COVERAGE OF SEVERE THREAT AND A POSSIBLE
WW.

..HART/PETERS.. 09/27/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 38960021 40349992 41429849 41199730 39379782 38960021

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 536

WWUS20 KWNS 272227
SEL6
SPC WW 272227
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-280600-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 536
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
525 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN KANSAS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE
WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE

* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 525
PM UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF GARDEN CITY KANSAS TO 50 MILES SOUTH OF LUBBOCK
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS AND SEVERAL LINE SEGMENTS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 22030.


...PETERS/HART

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KSGX [272123]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS56 KSGX 272123
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
223 PM PDT FRI SEP 27 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM NON-TSTM WND GST CAJON SUMMIT 34.35N 117.45W
09/27/2013 E60.00 MPH SAN BERNARDINO CA PARK/FOREST SRVC

FIRE FIGHTERS ON THE SIERRA WILDFIRE OBSERVED STRONG
WINDS DURING THE MORNING OF SEPTEMBER 27 2013. WINDS
ACROSS THE FIRE PERIMETER WERE GUSTING 35 MPH,WHILE ABOVE
THE FIRE LINE AND ALONG THE INTERSTATE 15 CORRIDOR NEAR
3500 FT ELEVATION WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 60 MPH.


&&

$$

JTHOMAS

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KSGX [272113]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 272113
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
213 PM PDT FRI SEP 27 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM NON-TSTM WND GST CAJON SUMMIT 34.35N 117.45W
09/27/2013 E60.00 MPH SAN BERNARDINO CA PARK/FOREST SRVC

FIRE FIGHTERS ON THE SIERRA WILDFIRE OBSERVED STRONG
WINDS DURING THE MORNING OF SEPTEMBER 27 2013. WINDS
ACROSS THE FIRE PERIMETER WERE GUSTING 35 MPH,WHILE ABOVE
THE FIRE LINE AND ALONG THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR NEAR
3500 FT ELEVATION WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 60 MPH.


&&

$$

RBALFO

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KTFX [272101]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 272101
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
301 PM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.37N 113.10W
09/27/2013 M57 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

57 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DEEP CREEK RAWS LOCATION. TIME
OF EVENT IS ESTIMATED.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KTFX [272059]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 272059
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
259 PM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 WSW SAINT MARY 48.69N 113.71W
09/27/2013 M60 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

60 MPH WIND GUST AT LOGAN PASS.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1917

ACUS11 KWNS 272045
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272044
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-272245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1917
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...TX AND OK PANHANDLES THROUGH WRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 272044Z - 272245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 22-23Z FROM THE TX
PANHANDLE NWD INTO WRN KS. INITIAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP SOME SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WITH A FEW LINE SEGMENTS ALSO LIKELY. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS
THROUGH MID EVENING.

DISCUSSION...RECENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LOW-MID 60S DEWPOINTS
ADVECTING NWD THROUGH WRN TX WITH UPPER 50S EVIDENT FARTHER NORTH
ACROSS WRN KS. STRONG DIABATIC WARMING IS OCCURRING FROM WRN TX NWD
INTO PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL KS EAST OF MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK
ASSOCIATED WITH A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP DUE PRIMARILY TO A LAYER OF
WARM AIR ABOVE A RELATIVELY SHALLOW ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. MUCAPE
RANGES FROM 1000 J/KG IN THE TX PANHANDLE TO BELOW 500 J/KG OVER WRN
KS. SATELLITE DATA INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER
CUMULUS OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AND MID-LEVEL CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
DEEPENING WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME JUST NW OF LUBBOCK.

AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES SHIFTS EWD TOWARD THE HIGH
PLAINS...ZONE OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD INCREASE FROM WRN TX
THROUGH WRN KS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS WITHIN AXIS OF BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION ALONG ERN FRINGE
OF SUBTROPICAL MOIST PLUME. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
STRENGTHEN AS MID-LEVEL JET ROTATES THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH
SUPPORTING 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN
KS. DESPITE A SOMEWHAT MODEST THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT A FEW STORMS
MAY DEVELOP SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTIC...POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO LINE
SEGMENTS...POSING A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE
HAIL.

..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 09/27/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 34430235 38650059 39459967 38579926 34330063 34430235

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 271955
SWODY1
SPC AC 271953

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

VALID 272000Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN
NEB...KS...OK AND TX...

NO CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE OUTLOOK FOR THIS ISSUANCE.

..BROYLES.. 09/27/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013/

...CENTRAL NEB TO TX PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL EJECT ENEWD
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY...REACHING THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS BY
EARLY SATURDAY. LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH...AND ONLY
SLOWLY EWD/SEWD MOTION OF A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING ACROSS NEB/WRN KS/TX AND OK PANHANDLES/ERN NM.
MEANWHILE...A MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS IS SPREADING NWD INTO
CENTRAL/NW TX AS OF MID MORNING...WITH LOW 60S DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO
REACH WRN KS/S CENTRAL NEB BY MID-LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
MOISTENING WILL OCCUR BENEATH THE REMNANTS OF A RELATIVELY SHALLOW
EML PLUME /STEEPEST LAPSE RATES CONFINED TO 800-600 MB LAYER/...AND
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL RESULT IN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
500-1250 J/KG MLCAPE.

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG THE LEE
TROUGH/PACIFIC COLD FRONT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE BAND OF ASCENT
DENOTED BY THE WEAK MIDLEVEL CONVECTION NOW EXTENDING FROM THE TX/NM
BORDER TO WRN KS. THE INITIAL STORMS WILL FORM A LITTLE W/NW OF THE
RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...WHERE VERTICAL MIXING WILL BE
GREATER AND TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL LIKELY EXCEED 25 F. VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH NWD EXTENT
FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN KS...THOUGH LARGELY BOUNDARY-PARALLEL
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTORS AND LINEAR FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGEST A
FAIRLY QUICK TRANSITION TO A LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE BY THIS EVENING.
THUS...DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE
MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. THE TORNADO THREAT IS MORE UNCERTAIN
GIVEN THE EXPECTED LARGER TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS WITH THE INITIAL
STORMS...AS WELL AS THE TENDENCY FOR MORE LINEAR CONVECTION AND
GRADUAL STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER PRIOR TO AN INCREASE IN
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR BY EARLY TONIGHT.

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KUNR [271908]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 271908
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
107 PM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0930 AM SNOW 1 SE DOWNTOWN GILLETTE 44.28N 105.49W
09/27/2013 M4.0 INCH CAMPBELL WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1200 PM SNOW 9 SSE DOWNTOWN GILLETTE 44.16N 105.45W
09/27/2013 E4.0 INCH CAMPBELL WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0100 PM SNOW 2 ENE WESTON 44.64N 105.30W
09/27/2013 E3.0 INCH CAMPBELL WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0100 PM SNOW 4 W NEW HAVEN 44.76N 104.93W
09/27/2013 E1.5 INCH CROOK WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0100 PM SNOW 7 SSE ROZET 44.18N 105.17W
09/27/2013 E1.0 INCH CAMPBELL WY TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

POJORLIE

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KRIW [271716]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KRIW 271716
LSRRIW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1116 AM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0548 AM SNOW LANDER 42.83N 108.73W
09/27/2013 M1.00 INCHES FREMONT WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0550 AM HEAVY SNOW HUDSON 42.89N 108.58W
09/27/2013 M6.00 INCHES FREMONT WY PUBLIC

0747 AM SNOW 1 S LANDER 42.80N 108.72W
09/27/2013 M3.70 INCHES FREMONT WY PUBLIC

LANDER AIRPORT

0747 AM HEAVY SNOW 4.5 NW RIVERTON 43.05N 108.43W
09/27/2013 M6.60 INCHES FREMONT WY ASOS

RIVERTON ASOS

0748 AM SNOW 6 W CASPER 42.88N 106.42W
09/27/2013 M3.20 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

CASPER AIRPORT

0749 AM SNOW 7 ESE KINNEAR 43.10N 108.56W
09/27/2013 M3.00 INCHES FREMONT WY NWS EMPLOYEE

0750 AM HEAVY SNOW RIVERTON 43.03N 108.41W
09/27/2013 M6.00 INCHES FREMONT WY PUBLIC

0750 AM SNOW 10 NW RIVERTON 43.13N 108.50W
09/27/2013 M5.00 INCHES FREMONT WY NWS EMPLOYEE

0751 AM SNOW 7 S CASPER 42.73N 106.35W
09/27/2013 M4.50 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

CASPER MOUNTAIN

1037 AM SNOW RIVERTON 43.03N 108.37W
09/27/2013 M2.20 INCHES FREMONT WY CO-OP OBSERVER

1037 AM SNOW AFTON 42.72N 110.92W
09/27/2013 M0.30 INCHES LINCOLN WY CO-OP OBSERVER

1038 AM HEAVY SNOW 4 W ATLANTIC CITY 42.50N 108.80W
09/27/2013 M7.00 INCHES FREMONT WY COCORAHS

1038 AM SNOW 2.5 SE BOULDER 42.71N 109.69W
09/27/2013 M1.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY CO-OP OBSERVER

BOULDER REARING STATION

1039 AM SNOW BUFFALO 44.35N 106.69W
09/27/2013 M1.80 INCHES JOHNSON WY CO-OP OBSERVER

1039 AM SNOW DANIEL FISH HATCHERY 42.92N 110.12W
09/27/2013 M0.50 INCHES SUBLETTE WY CO-OP OBSERVER

1039 AM SNOW EAST ENTRANCE 44.48N 110.00W
09/27/2013 M1.00 INCHES PARK WY CO-OP OBSERVER

YELLOWSTONE EAST ENTRANCE

1040 AM HEAVY SNOW JEFFREY CITY 42.49N 107.82W
09/27/2013 M6.00 INCHES FREMONT WY CO-OP OBSERVER

1040 AM SNOW KIRBY 43.80N 108.18W
09/27/2013 M1.00 INCHES HOT SPRINGS WY PUBLIC

1041 AM SNOW LANDER 42.84N 108.74W
09/27/2013 M3.00 INCHES FREMONT WY CO-OP OBSERVER

1041 AM SNOW MIDWEST 43.41N 106.27W
09/27/2013 M1.00 INCHES NATRONA WY CO-OP OBSERVER

1042 AM SNOW OLD FAITHFUL 44.45N 110.83W
09/27/2013 M2.00 INCHES TETON WY CO-OP OBSERVER

OLD FAITHFUL RANGER STATION

1047 AM SNOW PAHASKA 44.50N 109.96W
09/27/2013 M0.50 INCHES PARK WY CO-OP OBSERVER

1047 AM SNOW POWDER RIVER SCHOOL 43.03N 106.98W
09/27/2013 M4.00 INCHES NATRONA WY CO-OP OBSERVER

1047 AM SNOW SNAKE RIVER RANGER STAT 44.13N 110.66W
09/27/2013 M0.30 INCHES YELLOWSTONE WY CO-OP OBSERVER

1048 AM SNOW 3 NE SUNSHINE 44.07N 108.95W
09/27/2013 M4.20 INCHES PARK WY CO-OP OBSERVER

1048 AM SNOW TOWER FALLS RANGER STAT 44.91N 110.42W
09/27/2013 M0.50 INCHES YELLOWSTONE WY CO-OP OBSERVER

1049 AM SNOW JACKSON LAKE 43.85N 110.58W
09/27/2013 E2.00 INCHES TETON WY MESONET

1049 AM SNOW 2 E EVANSVILLE 42.86N 106.22W
09/27/2013 M1.50 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1050 AM SNOW KAYCEE 43.71N 106.63W
09/27/2013 M4.00 INCHES JOHNSON WY CO-OP OBSERVER

1050 AM SNOW BECHLER RIVER RANGER ST 44.14N 111.04W
09/27/2013 M0.60 INCHES YELLOWSTONE WY CO-OP OBSERVER

1050 AM SNOW 9 NE THERMOPOLIS 43.75N 108.14W
09/27/2013 M3.40 INCHES HOT SPRINGS WY CO-OP OBSERVER

1051 AM SNOW 16 SSE TEN SLEEP 43.81N 107.36W
09/27/2013 M2.30 INCHES WASHAKIE WY CO-OP OBSERVER

1051 AM SNOW 14 SSE TEN SLEEP 43.86N 107.30W
09/27/2013 M4.00 INCHES WASHAKIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1052 AM SNOW 1 WSW CANYON 44.72N 110.51W
09/27/2013 E2.00 INCHES YELLOWSTONE WY MESONET

CANYON SNOTEL

1052 AM SNOW 5 N SOUTH ENTRANCE 44.21N 110.67W
09/27/2013 E2.00 INCHES YELLOWSTONE WY MESONET

LEWIS LAKE DIVIDE SNOTEL

1052 AM SNOW 16 N PAHASKA 44.73N 109.91W
09/27/2013 E5.00 INCHES YELLOWSTONE WY MESONET

PARKER PEAK SNOTEL

1052 AM SNOW 4 WSW PAHASKA 44.48N 110.04W
09/27/2013 E1.00 INCHES YELLOWSTONE WY MESONET

SYLVAN ROAD SNOTEL

1052 AM SNOW 14 ESE OLD FAITHFUL 44.37N 110.58W
09/27/2013 E4.00 INCHES YELLOWSTONE WY MESONET

THUMB DIVIDE SNOTEL

1053 AM SNOW 25 NE MORAN JUNCTION 44.15N 110.22W
09/27/2013 E2.00 INCHES YELLOWSTONE WY MESONET

TWO OCEAN PLATEAU SNOTEL

1053 AM SNOW 21 W CLARK 44.94N 109.57W
09/27/2013 E2.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET

BEARTOOTH LAKE SNOTEL

1053 AM SNOW 19 WSW WAPITI 44.38N 109.79W
09/27/2013 E4.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET

BLACKWATER SNOTEL

1054 AM SNOW 16 NE DUBOIS 43.67N 109.37W
09/27/2013 E4.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

CASTLE CREEK SNOTEL

1054 AM SNOW 14 NE PAHASKA 44.65N 109.78W
09/27/2013 E5.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET

EVENING STAR SNOTEL

1054 AM HEAVY SNOW 30 SW MEETEETSE 43.86N 109.32W
09/27/2013 E11.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET

KIRWIN SNOTEL

1054 AM HEAVY SNOW 18 SW CODY 44.30N 109.24W
09/27/2013 E10.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET

MARQUETTE SNOTEL

1054 AM HEAVY SNOW 40 W THERMOPOLIS 43.66N 109.01W
09/27/2013 E11.00 INCHES HOT SPRINGS WY MESONET

OWL CREEK SNOTEL

1054 AM HEAVY SNOW 18 WSW MEETEETSE 44.03N 109.18W
09/27/2013 E10.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET

TIMBER CREEK SNOTEL

1055 AM HEAVY SNOW 28 E LOVELL 44.80N 107.84W
09/27/2013 E8.00 INCHES BIG HORN WY MESONET

BALD MOUNTAIN SNOTEL

1055 AM HEAVY SNOW 14 NE SHELL 44.68N 107.58W
09/27/2013 E10.00 INCHES BIG HORN WY MESONET

BONE SPRINGS DIVIDE SNOTEL

1055 AM HEAVY SNOW 13 W BARNUM 43.63N 107.18W
09/27/2013 E8.00 INCHES WASHAKIE WY MESONET

MIDDLE POWDER SNOTEL

1055 AM HEAVY SNOW 24 SW BUFFALO 44.16N 107.13W
09/27/2013 E10.00 INCHES WASHAKIE WY MESONET

POWDER RIVER PASS SNOTEL

1056 AM HEAVY SNOW 18 E SHELL 44.50N 107.43W
09/27/2013 E10.00 INCHES BIG HORN WY MESONET

SHELL CREEK SNOTEL

1056 AM HEAVY SNOW 14 WNW MAYOWORTH 43.89N 107.06W
09/27/2013 E11.00 INCHES JOHNSON WY MESONET

BEAR TRAP MEADOW SNOTEL

1056 AM HEAVY SNOW 17 W BUFFALO 44.40N 107.06W
09/27/2013 E9.00 INCHES JOHNSON WY MESONET

CLOUD PEAK RESERVOIR SNOTEL

1057 AM HEAVY SNOW 21 SW BARNUM 43.47N 107.24W
09/27/2013 E8.00 INCHES NATRONA WY MESONET

GRAVE SPRING SNOTEL

1057 AM HEAVY SNOW 14 WSW BUFFALO 44.26N 106.98W
09/27/2013 E11.00 INCHES JOHNSON WY MESONET

HANSEN SAWMILL SNOTEL

1057 AM HEAVY SNOW 27 NW BUFFALO 44.54N 107.17W
09/27/2013 E11.00 INCHES JOHNSON WY MESONET

LITTLE GOOSE SNOTEL

1057 AM HEAVY SNOW 16 W BUFFALO 44.34N 107.02W
09/27/2013 E10.00 INCHES JOHNSON WY MESONET

SOLDIER PARK SNOTEL

1057 AM HEAVY SNOW 8 NNE MORAN JUNCTION 43.95N 110.45W
09/27/2013 E6.00 INCHES TETON WY MESONET

BASE CAMP SNOTEL

1057 AM SNOW 6 ENE ALTA 43.78N 110.93W
09/27/2013 E1.00 INCHES TETON WY MESONET

GRAND TARGHEE SNOTEL

1058 AM SNOW 20 NE BONDURANT 43.39N 110.13W
09/27/2013 E2.00 INCHES TETON WY MESONET

GROS VENTRE SUMMIT SNOTEL

1058 AM SNOW 8 WNW JACKSON 43.52N 110.91W
09/27/2013 E2.00 INCHES TETON WY MESONET

PHILLIPS BENCH SNOTEL

1058 AM SNOW 26 NW DUBOIS 43.81N 110.19W
09/27/2013 M5.00 INCHES TETON WY PUBLIC

TOGWOTEE PASS

1058 AM HEAVY SNOW 24 ESE BOULDER 42.65N 109.26W
09/27/2013 E9.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET

BIG SANDY OPENING SNOTEL

1058 AM SNOW 12 NNE PINEDALE 43.01N 109.76W
09/27/2013 E5.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET

ELKHART PARK G.S. SNOTEL

1059 AM SNOW 16 SW DUBOIS 43.38N 109.88W
09/27/2013 E4.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET

GUNSITE PASS SNOTEL

1059 AM SNOW 22 N CORA 43.25N 110.02W
09/27/2013 E1.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET

KENDALL RANGER STATION SNOTEL

1059 AM SNOW 25 SW LANDER 42.58N 109.08W
09/27/2013 E5.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET

LARSEN CREEK SNOTEL

1059 AM SNOW 12 N CORA 43.11N 109.95W
09/27/2013 E1.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET

NEW FORK LAKE SNOTEL

1059 AM HEAVY SNOW 16 E BOULDER 42.71N 109.41W
09/27/2013 E10.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET

POCKET CREEK SNOTEL

1059 AM HEAVY SNOW 14 W CROWHEART 43.28N 109.45W
09/27/2013 E11.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

COLD SPRINGS SNOTEL

1100 AM HEAVY SNOW 19 SSW LANDER 42.59N 108.90W
09/27/2013 E14.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

DEER PARK SNOTEL

1100 AM HEAVY SNOW 18 W LANDER 42.87N 109.09W
09/27/2013 E11.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

HOBBS PARK SNOTEL

1100 AM HEAVY SNOW 6 WSW DUBOIS 43.50N 109.75W
09/27/2013 E8.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

LITTLE WARM SNOTEL

1100 AM HEAVY SNOW 7 NW ATLANTIC CITY 42.57N 108.84W
09/27/2013 E10.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

SOUTH PASS SNOTEL

1100 AM HEAVY SNOW 26 NW LANDER 43.03N 109.17W
09/27/2013 E8.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

ST. LAWRENCE ALT SNOTEL

1101 AM HEAVY SNOW 8 S CASPER 42.73N 106.32W
09/27/2013 E6.00 INCHES NATRONA WY MESONET

CASPER MOUNTAIN SNOTEL

1101 AM SNOW 22 SSE CASPER 42.57N 106.09W
09/27/2013 E5.00 INCHES NATRONA WY MESONET

RENO HILL SNOTEL

1102 AM HEAVY SNOW 9 SSE LANDER 42.70N 108.67W
09/27/2013 M6.80 INCHES FREMONT WY COCORAHS

1102 AM SNOW 1 W LANDER 42.82N 108.74W
09/27/2013 M3.50 INCHES FREMONT WY COCORAHS

1102 AM SNOW 1 SW THERMOPOLIS 43.63N 108.22W
09/27/2013 M4.00 INCHES HOT SPRINGS WY COCORAHS

1102 AM SNOW BUFFALO 44.34N 106.71W
09/27/2013 M3.00 INCHES JOHNSON WY COCORAHS

1102 AM HEAVY SNOW 4 SSW BUFFALO 44.28N 106.73W
09/27/2013 M8.00 INCHES JOHNSON WY COCORAHS

1103 AM SNOW 17 E KAYCEE 43.70N 106.29W
09/27/2013 M1.50 INCHES JOHNSON WY COCORAHS

1103 AM SNOW 5 SSE SMOOT 42.55N 110.88W
09/27/2013 M1.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY COCORAHS

1103 AM SNOW 5 NNE THAYNE 42.97N 110.94W
09/27/2013 M1.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY COCORAHS

1103 AM SNOW CASPER 42.83N 106.34W
09/27/2013 M1.50 INCHES NATRONA WY COCORAHS

1104 AM SNOW 1 WSW CASPER 42.82N 106.34W
09/27/2013 M0.40 INCHES NATRONA WY COCORAHS

1104 AM SNOW 4 SW CASPER 42.79N 106.39W
09/27/2013 M3.20 INCHES NATRONA WY COCORAHS

1104 AM SNOW 4 WSW CASPER 42.82N 106.39W
09/27/2013 M3.30 INCHES NATRONA WY COCORAHS

1105 AM SNOW MEETEETSE 44.15N 108.87W
09/27/2013 M2.50 INCHES PARK WY COCORAHS

1105 AM SNOW 14 NW PINEDALE 42.98N 110.08W
09/27/2013 M2.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY COCORAHS

1105 AM SNOW PINEDALE 42.86N 109.85W
09/27/2013 M1.10 INCHES SUBLETTE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1106 AM SNOW 1 W ROCK SPRINGS 41.58N 109.21W
09/27/2013 M0.10 INCHES SWEETWATER WY COCORAHS

1106 AM SNOW TEN SLEEP 44.03N 107.45W
09/27/2013 M1.80 INCHES WASHAKIE WY COCORAHS

1106 AM SNOW 5 NNW TEN SLEEP 44.10N 107.45W
09/27/2013 M2.00 INCHES WASHAKIE WY COCORAHS

1107 AM SNOW WINCHESTER 43.85N 108.16W
09/27/2013 M0.30 INCHES WASHAKIE WY COCORAHS

1107 AM SNOW 4 W RIVERTON 43.03N 108.45W
09/27/2013 M5.50 INCHES FREMONT WY NWS EMPLOYEE

1112 AM SNOW SHOSHONI 43.23N 108.10W
09/27/2013 M3.00 INCHES FREMONT WY POST OFFICE

1113 AM SNOW BUFFALO 44.34N 106.69W
09/27/2013 M4.00 INCHES JOHNSON WY COCORAHS

1113 AM SNOW THERMOPOLIS 43.64N 108.20W
09/27/2013 M4.00 INCHES HOT SPRINGS WY POST OFFICE


&&

$$

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 271713
SWODY2
SPC AC 271712

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1212 PM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SW MO/NW AR/ERN OK/NE TX...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS ON
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND
OZARKS. SFC HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN STORM INITIATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM
CNTRL MO SWWD INTO WCNTRL TX. MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT MODERATE
INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS CORRIDOR BY MID-AFTERNOON. THE
NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH INSTABILITY SHOWING MLCAPE VALUES
AROUND 1500 J/KG FROM NE TX NNEWD INTO SW MO. THIS COMBINED WITH 30
KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL
BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY ESEWD ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC
OCEAN APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE EXIT REGION OF A 80 TO 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL
OVERSPREAD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BRINGING WITH IT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A RESULT...THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP IN WRN
WA AND NW ORE DURING THE DAY DUE TO THE STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN WRN WA SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOW STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES AND CURVED HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTING A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CELLS THAT CAN EXHIBIT ROTATION.

..BROYLES.. 09/27/2013

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 271629
SWODY1
SPC AC 271627

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

VALID 271630Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL NEB TO THE TX PANHANDLE...

...CENTRAL NEB TO TX PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL EJECT ENEWD
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY...REACHING THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS BY
EARLY SATURDAY. LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH...AND ONLY
SLOWLY EWD/SEWD MOTION OF A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING ACROSS NEB/WRN KS/TX AND OK PANHANDLES/ERN NM.
MEANWHILE...A MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS IS SPREADING NWD INTO
CENTRAL/NW TX AS OF MID MORNING...WITH LOW 60S DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO
REACH WRN KS/S CENTRAL NEB BY MID-LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
MOISTENING WILL OCCUR BENEATH THE REMNANTS OF A RELATIVELY SHALLOW
EML PLUME /STEEPEST LAPSE RATES CONFINED TO 800-600 MB LAYER/...AND
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL RESULT IN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
500-1250 J/KG MLCAPE.

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG THE LEE
TROUGH/PACIFIC COLD FRONT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE BAND OF ASCENT
DENOTED BY THE WEAK MIDLEVEL CONVECTION NOW EXTENDING FROM THE TX/NM
BORDER TO WRN KS. THE INITIAL STORMS WILL FORM A LITTLE W/NW OF THE
RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...WHERE VERTICAL MIXING WILL BE
GREATER AND TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL LIKELY EXCEED 25 F. VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH NWD EXTENT
FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN KS...THOUGH LARGELY BOUNDARY-PARALLEL
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTORS AND LINEAR FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGEST A
FAIRLY QUICK TRANSITION TO A LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE BY THIS EVENING.
THUS...DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE
MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. THE TORNADO THREAT IS MORE UNCERTAIN
GIVEN THE EXPECTED LARGER TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS WITH THE INITIAL
STORMS...AS WELL AS THE TENDENCY FOR MORE LINEAR CONVECTION AND
GRADUAL STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER PRIOR TO AN INCREASE IN
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR BY EARLY TONIGHT.

..THOMPSON/COHEN.. 09/27/2013

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KUNR [271609]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 271609
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1009 AM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW DOWNTOWN GILLETTE 44.29N 105.50W
09/27/2013 M3.3 INCH CAMPBELL WY EMERGENCY MNGR


&&

$$

POJORLIE

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KUNR [271345]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KUNR 271345
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
745 AM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0724 AM SNOW DOWNTOWN GILLETTE 44.29N 105.50W
09/27/2013 E2.0 INCH CAMPBELL WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

SNOWFALL SO FAR


&&

$$

JC

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KUNR [271326]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 271326
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
726 AM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0724 AM SNOW DOWNTOWN GILLETTE 44.29N 105.50W
09/27/2013 E0.5 INCH CAMPBELL WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

SNOWFALL SO FAR


&&

$$

JC

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 271250
SWODY1
SPC AC 271247

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

VALID 271300Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...

A SIGNIFICANT VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND ASSOCIATED MID AND UPPER-LEVEL
JET STREAKS WITHIN THE BASE OF THE PARENT LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
LOWER CO VALLEY WILL TRANSLATE NEWD INTO THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS BY 28/12Z. THIS UPPER-AIR SYSTEM WILL BE ATTENDED BY A
MIGRATORY LEE CYCLONE WHICH WILL DEEPEN OVER ERN CO TODAY BEFORE
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING NEWD ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY BY TONIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD
THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS...GRADUALLY OVERTAKING A DRYLINE WHICH WILL
STRETCH FROM THE ERN CO LOW SWD INTO WRN TX DURING THE PEAK OF
AFTERNOON HEATING.

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

EARLY MORNING SATELLITE-DERIVED PW IMAGERY INDICATES THE NWD FLUX OF
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS INTO CNTRL TX FROM THE NWRN GULF OF
MEXICO WITHIN THE SRN EXTENSION OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL WIND
MAXIMUM. A DYNAMICALLY FORCED SLY LLJ WILL MAINTAIN THIS PROCESS
TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE 60S EAST OF THE DRYLINE AS FAR
NORTH AS THE TX/OK PNHDLS AND PERHAPS PARTS OF WRN KS. AND WHILE
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STEEP...THIS MOISTURE
INCREASE ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT THE DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION OF THE WARM SECTOR WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 500-750 J/KG OVER SWRN NEB/NWRN KS TO 1000-1250 J/KG
ACROSS THE ERN TX PNHDL.

SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE SURFACE TRIPLE POINT SWD ALONG THE
DRYLINE IS AUGMENTED BY INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS/DCVA DOWNSTREAM FROM
THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH. THE STORM INITIATION WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH A
NOTABLE STRENGTHENING OF THE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD AND RESULTANT
VERTICAL SHEAR WITH A MIXTURE OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES
POSSIBLE.

LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY THE MARGINALLY
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
OCCURRENCE BEING ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WHERE A
MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONGER INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...INITIALLY SIZABLE T-TD SPREADS /ESPECIALLY ACROSS KS AND
NEB/ WILL LIKELY PROMOTE COLD POOL GENERATION AND AN INCREASING RISK
FOR DAMAGING WINDS. TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE BY EARLY EVENING
WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN REMAIN MORE DISCRETE OWING TO THE CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND GRADUALLY LOWERING LCL
HEIGHTS.

BY LATE EVENING INTO TONIGHT...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE
INTO A BROKEN QLCS ALONG THE SURGING COLD FRONT WITH AN ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND THREAT PERSISTING UNTIL ABOUT 28/06Z FROM CNTRL NEB
INTO WRN OK/NWRN TX.

..MEAD/MOSIER.. 09/27/2013

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KGJT [271239]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 271239
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
639 AM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SW SWAMP ANGEL 37.88N 107.74W
09/27/2013 M75 MPH SAN JUAN CO MESONET


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1301621

$$

DC

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 270849
SWOD48
SPC AC 270848

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

VALID 301200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A RELATIVELY STRONG BELT OF WSWLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND
FROM THE NWRN U.S. INTO THE NRN PLAINS...WITH INTENSE LEADING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE NRN ROCKIES ON MON/D4. THIS TROUGH
WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL NOT
OCCUR.

FLOW BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED ON D5-D6 ACROSS THE SAME GENERAL AREA IN
THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER TROUGH. THEN...IN THE D7-D8 TIME
FRAME...MODELS SUGGEST A MAJOR TROUGH AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE
W...DRIFTING INTO THE PLAINS BY D8. WHILE UNCERTAINLY EXISTS...IT
DOES APPEAR THAT THIS TROUGH WILL BE POSITIVELY TILTED AND
RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING. THUS...WHILE SOME SEVERE WEATHER MAY
EVENTUALLY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS...IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
HAVE ANY HIGH END POTENTIAL.

..JEWELL.. 09/27/2013

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KGJT [270840]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 270840
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
240 AM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SE SILVERTON 37.79N 107.64W
09/27/2013 M71 MPH SAN JUAN CO MESONET


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1301620

$$

DC

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KGJT [270800]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 270800
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
159 AM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 AM NON-TSTM WND GST MOUNT ABRAMS 37.96N 107.65W
09/27/2013 M79 MPH OURAY CO MESONET


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1301619

$$

DC

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 270605
SWODY3
SPC AC 270603

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0103 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER JET WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE NWRN CONUS WITH A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING WA/ORE BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH
STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS PERSISTING. TO THE E...A COLD FRONT
WILL STALL LATE IN THE DAY FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY SWWD INTO ERN TX
AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

...WRN WA AND OREGON...
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFICATION IS EXPECTED ON DAY 3 WHICH WILL
ENHANCE FORCING FOR ASCENT. HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE STRONGEST
SIGNAL. THEREFORE...WHILE LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE
LIKELY...PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW FOR ANY LOW SEVERE WIND
PROBABILITIES. HEAVY RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
REGARDLESS.

...ERN TX INTO AR AND LA...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM ERN TX INTO AR...WHERE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S F. DAYTIME
HEATING WILL YIELD A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE BY
AFTERNOON...WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS ALOFT. SCATTERED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM IN THIS ZONE OF WEAK CONVERGENCE...AND WHILE GUSTY
WINDS ARE ALWAYS POSSIBLE...SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY.

..JEWELL.. 09/27/2013

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KGJT [270603]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 270603
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1203 AM MDT FRI SEP 27 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1150 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 E RIFLE 39.55N 107.72W
09/26/2013 M55 MPH GARFIELD CO ASOS


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1301618

$$

DC

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KMSO [270536]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 270536
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1135 PM MDT THU SEP 26 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM HEAVY SNOW 2 SW NEWCOMB 45.90N 112.55W
09/26/2013 M6.0 INCH SILVER BOW MT TRAINED SPOTTER

AT LEAST 6" STORM TOTAL SNOW, SHE WAS NOT
ABLE TO MEASURE UNTIL 12 HRS AFTER EVENT
ENDED. THE WEIGHT OF THE SNOW COLLAPSED HER
CARPORT AND DOWNED AT LEAST 6 ASPEN TREES.
HEAVY SNOW DURATION 24 HOURS OBSERVER
LOCATION 7 MI S OF BUTTE



&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 270532
SWODY1
SPC AC 270530

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LARGE-SCALE MID/UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S...WITH WEAK
TROUGHING LINGERING EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST...AND A SHARP UPPER
RIDGE REMAINING PROMINENT NORTH OF A WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTER THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN STATES
APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED...AS A SIGNIFICANT EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE IMPULSE SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN/
SOUTHERN PLATEAU REGION...THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY
12Z SATURDAY. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS LATTER DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR AS A STRONG UPSTREAM IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK DIG
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.

IN RESPONSE TO THE IMPULSE EMERGING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION...MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SURFACE CYCLONE MAY SLOWLY DEEPEN
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY TODAY...BEFORE A SURFACE
FRONT...EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...STRENGTHENS AND BEGINS TO SURGE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. WHILE A RETURN FLOW OF GULF
MOISTURE IS IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...SUBSTANTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING FROM THIS SOURCE
REGION MAY NOT REACH THE CENTRAL PLAINS UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. HOWEVER...MOISTENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS DOES APPEAR LIKELY TO BE AUGMENTED BY AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE
OF LOWER LATITUDE EASTERN PACIFIC ORIGINS...ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT
LOWER/MID-LEVELS...AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...
WHILE IT DOES APPEAR LIKELY THAT CONSIDERABLE LOW/MID-LEVEL
MOISTENING WILL OCCUR TODAY ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND ALONG THE FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...INITIALLY
MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY NOT BE MAINTAINED. AND
MODELS SUGGEST THAT SURFACE HEATING TODAY WILL BE MORE MODEST THAN
YESTERDAY...SO UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING HOW FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
STILL...GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING OF THE DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW FIELDS
AND SHEAR AS THE UPPER IMPULSE PROGRESSES ACROSS THE ROCKIES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... FAIRLY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING...AND THE EVOLUTION OF SIZABLE SUB-CLOUD TEMPERATURE/DEW
POINT SPREADS...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SEVERE WIND GUST
POTENTIAL.

ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO
WESTERN KANSAS...CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE FORECAST
TO BE LARGE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...
PARTICULARLY IN DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT. SOUTH OF THE COLD
FRONT...THIS COULD BE THE PRIMARY STORM MODE INITIALLY.
HOWEVER...AS FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INCREASES ALONG THE EASTWARD AND
SOUTHEASTWARD SURGING COLD FRONT...AN ORGANIZING LINE OF STORMS
APPEARS POSSIBLE JUST AHEAD OF IT...FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS
EVENING.

CONVECTION MAY PERSIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ADVANCING TOWARD THE LOWER
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE RELATIVELY
NARROW CORRIDOR OF PEAK LATE AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION /CHARACTERIZED BY CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J PER
KG/...SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH EAST OF THE HIGH
PLAINS.

..KERR/PETERS.. 09/27/2013

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 270453
SWODY2
SPC AC 270450

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CDT THU SEP 26 2013

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY...AND WILL BE LOCATED OVER
ONTARIO BY SUNDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW WILL DEEPEN FROM
NRN MN INTO WRN ONTARIO...WITH A SHARP COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD INTO
WI AND UPPER MI. FORCING WILL BE STRONG WITH THE FRONT BUT
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED. TO THE
S...THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS OK AND
INTO NWRN TX BY AFTERNOON...WHERE MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST BUT WEAKER SHEAR.

ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW...A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG
WINDS AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION ALONG THE W SLOPES OF THE WA CASCADES
AND INTO COASTAL WA AND OREGON.

ELSEWHERE...AWAY FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY.

...WA...
A VERY STRONG TROUGH WILL ARRIVE MAINLY AFTER 00Z AND WILL BRING
STRONG WINDS AND A LONG DURATION OF HEAVY RAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT EXTREME SHEAR PROFILES WILL MATERIALIZE...WITH
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL VEERING WITH HEIGHT/LOOPING LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS ALONG WITH SPEED SHEAR ALOFT. STRONGLY
FORCED...LOW-TOPPED LINES OR SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG COASTAL WA AND OREGON DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN
THE MAIN FRONTAL FORCING ARRIVES AND COOLING BELOW 500 MB OCCURS.
WITH SUCH STRONG SHEAR...SOME OF THESE ELEMENTS COULD ENHANCE WIND
POTENTIAL AT THE SURFACE...ALTHOUGH LIGHTNING PRODUCTION COULD BE
LIMITED.

...UPPER MS VALLEY...
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE QUITE WEAK DUE TO POOR
LOW TO MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. IT IS DIFFICULT TO FIND ANY NAM
FORECAST SOUNDING WITH MORE THAN 15 J/KG MLCAPE OVER THE WARM
SECTOR...DESPITE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S. THEREFORE...WHILE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

...OK INTO NWRN TX...
MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
WITH A PLUME OF UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH
HEIGHT RISES BEHIND THE EJECTING UPPER TROUGH...FORCING WILL BE WEAK
OVERALL...BUT HEATING NEAR THE FRONT COULD RESULT IN A REJUVENATION
OF STORM VIGOR. A FEW LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WOULD BE
LIKELY...BUT WITH THE FILLING SURFACE TROUGH AND WEAKENING SHEAR
WITH SRN EXTENT...SEVERE APPEARS UNLIKELY.

..JEWELL.. 09/27/2013

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