DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 270605
SWODY3
SPC AC 270603

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0103 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2013

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER JET WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE NWRN CONUS WITH A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING WA/ORE BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH
STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS PERSISTING. TO THE E...A COLD FRONT
WILL STALL LATE IN THE DAY FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY SWWD INTO ERN TX
AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

...WRN WA AND OREGON...
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFICATION IS EXPECTED ON DAY 3 WHICH WILL
ENHANCE FORCING FOR ASCENT. HOWEVER...MODELS DIFFER AS TO THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE STRONGEST
SIGNAL. THEREFORE...WHILE LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE
LIKELY...PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW FOR ANY LOW SEVERE WIND
PROBABILITIES. HEAVY RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
REGARDLESS.

...ERN TX INTO AR AND LA...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM ERN TX INTO AR...WHERE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S F. DAYTIME
HEATING WILL YIELD A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE BY
AFTERNOON...WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS ALOFT. SCATTERED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM IN THIS ZONE OF WEAK CONVERGENCE...AND WHILE GUSTY
WINDS ARE ALWAYS POSSIBLE...SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY.

..JEWELL.. 09/27/2013

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