KGLD [222250]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 222250
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
450 PM MDT TUE MAY 22 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 PM HAIL 9 NNE KIT CARSON 38.88N 102.73W
05/22/2007 E0.88 INCH CHEYENNE CO CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

FOLTZ

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KLBF [222249]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 222249
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
549 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0537 PM HAIL 3 SW EUSTIS 40.63N 100.07W
05/22/2007 E1.00 INCH FRONTIER NE FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

$$

HENDERSON

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KGLD [222248]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 222248
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
448 PM MDT TUE MAY 22 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0435 PM HAIL 13 NW KIT CARSON 38.90N 102.97W
05/22/2007 E1.75 INCH CHEYENNE CO PUBLIC

&&

$$

KJAMES

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KLBF [222244]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 222244
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
544 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0535 PM HAIL 7 SW EUSTIS 40.59N 100.12W
05/22/2007 M1.75 INCH FRONTIER NE PUBLIC

&&

$$

CHENDERS

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KRNK [222234]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 222234
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
634 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 PM HAIL 3 SE WHITE SULPHUR SPRI 37.77N 80.26W
05/22/2007 E0.88 INCH GREENBRIER WV PUBLIC

NICKEL HAIL REPORTED ON TUCKAHOE ROAD.

&&

$$

JH

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KGLD [222232]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 222232
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
432 PM MDT TUE MAY 22 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0422 PM HAIL 4 SE QUINTER 39.03N 100.18W
05/22/2007 M1.00 INCH GOVE KS NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

$$

FOLTZ

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KTFX [222230]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KTFX 222230
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
429 PM MDT TUE MAY 22 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 AM HEAVY SNOW 22 SE ROCKY BOY 48.03N 109.45W
05/22/2007 M9.0 INCH BLAINE MT MESONET

24 HOUR SNOWFALL BOX ELDER SNOTEL ELEVATION 4700 FEET

0826 AM HEAVY SNOW BASIN 46.27N 112.26W
05/22/2007 M6.5 INCH JEFFERSON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

6.5 INCHES ON GROUND AT 800 AM.

0845 AM SNOW MARYSVILLE 46.75N 112.30W
05/22/2007 M3.0 INCH LEWIS AND CLARK MT LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWER IS OUT AT MARYSVILLE

1100 AM HEAVY SNOW 6 N BASIN 46.36N 112.26W
05/22/2007 M14.0 INCH JEFFERSON MT MESONET

24 HOUR SNOWFALL ROCKER PEAK SNOTEL ELEVATION 8000 FEET

1100 AM HEAVY SNOW 10 NNW LINCOLN 47.09N 112.76W
05/22/2007 M9.0 INCH LEWIS AND CLARK MT MESONET

15 HOUR SNOWFALL COPPER CAMP SNOTEL ELEVATION 6950 FEET

0100 PM HEAVY SNOW 40 N WHITE SULPHUR SPRI 47.13N 110.90W
05/22/2007 M8.0 INCH CASCADE MT MESONET

12 HOUR SNOWFALL ONION PARK SNOTEL ELEVATION 7410 FEET

0200 PM HEAVY SNOW 9 W JEFFERSON CITY 46.39N 112.22W
05/22/2007 M12.0 INCH JEFFERSON MT MESONET

24 HOUR SNOWFALL FROHNER MEADOW SNOTEL ELEVATION 6480
FEET

0200 PM HEAVY SNOW 14 NE BOULDER 46.38N 111.91W
05/22/2007 M12.0 INCH JEFFERSON MT MESONET

24 HOUR SNOWFALL TIZER BASIN SNOTEL ELEVATION 6880 FEET

0200 PM HEAVY SNOW 18 SSW LEWISTOWN 46.82N 109.57W
05/22/2007 M8.0 INCH FERGUS MT MESONET

12 HOUR SNOWFALL CRYSTAL LAKE SNOTEL ELEVATION 6050 FEET

0300 PM HEAVY SNOW 22 S LEWISTOWN 46.75N 109.43W
05/22/2007 M11.0 INCH FERGUS MT TRAINED SPOTTER

12 HOUR SNOWFALL HALF MOON PASS 5575 FEET

&&

$$

JBLANK

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KABR [222229]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 222229
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
529 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 PM HAIL 5 S BRENTFORD 45.09N 98.32W
05/22/2007 M0.75 INCH SPINK SD EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

$$

GN

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KGID [222229]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 222229
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
529 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0520 PM HAIL 1 S CAMBRIDGE 40.27N 100.17W
05/22/2007 E1.25 INCH FURNAS NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

HAIL LASTED ABOUT 5 MINUTES

&&

$$

PFANNKUCH

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KGLD [222225]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 222225
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
425 PM MDT TUE MAY 22 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0420 PM HAIL 2 E TASCO 39.35N 100.25W
05/22/2007 E1.75 INCH SHERIDAN KS EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

$$

FOLTZ

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KGLD [222223]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 222223
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
423 PM MDT TUE MAY 22 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0412 PM HAIL 4 W QUINTER 39.07N 100.31W
05/22/2007 E1.75 INCH GOVE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

LASTED 10 MINUTES

&&

$$

KJAMES

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KGLD [222217]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 222217
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
416 PM MDT TUE MAY 22 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0415 PM HAIL 1 S PARK 39.10N 100.36W
05/22/2007 M0.75 INCH GOVE KS NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

$$

FOLTZ

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KMPX [222208]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 222208
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
507 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 PM HAIL MILACA 45.76N 93.65W
05/22/2007 M0.75 INCH MILLE LACS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

TORRENTIAL RAIN AND ESTIMATED GUSTS TO 45 MPH ALSO
REPORTED.

&&

$$

AZ

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KBOU [222203]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KBOU 222203
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
403 PM MDT TUE MAY 22 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0358 PM HAIL 7 SW KARVAL 38.66N 103.62W
05/22/2007 M0.75 INCH LINCOLN CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0402 PM HAIL 11 SW KARVAL 38.62N 103.67W
05/22/2007 M0.75 INCH LINCOLN CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

JK

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KBOU [222159]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOU 222159
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
359 PM MDT TUE MAY 22 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0358 PM HAIL 7 SW KARVAL 38.66N 103.62W
05/22/2007 M0.75 INCH LINCOLN CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

JK

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KGLD [222158]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 222158
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
358 PM MDT TUE MAY 22 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0353 PM HAIL PARK 39.11N 100.36W
05/22/2007 E1.00 INCH GOVE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL WITH ESTIMATED 50 MPH WIND

&&

$$

KJAMES

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KRNK [222138]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 222138
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
538 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0450 PM HAIL ALLEGHANY 37.75N 80.25W
05/22/2007 E0.88 INCH ALLEGHANY VA TRAINED SPOTTER

NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN THE TOWN OF ALLEGHANY

&&

$$

JH

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KBIS [222130]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 222130
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
429 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0830 PM HAIL 4 NNW WASHBURN 47.34N 101.06W
05/21/2007 E1.00 INCH MCLEAN ND LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

KJB

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KRNK [222121]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 222121
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
520 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 WSW CERES 37.01N 81.38W
05/22/2007 BLAND VA PUBLIC

TREE DOWN OFF ROUTE 42.

&&

$$

JH

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KABR [222117]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 222117
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
417 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0355 PM HAIL 6 NE HIGHMORE 44.58N 99.35W
05/22/2007 E0.88 INCH HYDE SD PUBLIC

&&

$$

GN

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KABR [222055]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 222055
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
355 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0325 PM HAIL 1 W STEPHAN 44.25N 99.47W
05/22/2007 M0.88 INCH HYDE SD PUBLIC

NICKEL SIZE HAIL COVERING HWY 34 1 MILE WEST OF STEPHAN.

&&

$$

GNIELS

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 288

WWUS20 KWNS 222008
SEL8
SPC WW 222008
KSZ000-NEZ000-230400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 288
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
305 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 305 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
BURWELL NEBRASKA TO 95 MILES SOUTH OF HILL CITY KANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 287...

DISCUSSION...LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD EWD
ACROSS ERN CO AT MID-AFTN. COMBINATION OF HEATING AND THE
INCREASING UVV WILL ACT TO ERODE INHIBITION RESULTING IN CONVECTIVE
INITIATION BY LATE AFTN ALONG COLD FRONT/LEE-TROUGH. VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. LOW-LEVEL
SRH WILL ALSO BE CONDUCIVE FOR TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24025.

..RACY/EVANS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 222000
SWODY1
SPC AC 221958

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007

VALID 222000Z - 231200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND
NRN PLAINS...

..CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS...
A WELL ORGANIZED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE WRN STATES. A MID-LEVEL JET IS LOCATED IN THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH AND THIS FEATURE WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LIFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
SUPPORTING MCS DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. AT THE SFC...A 1000 MB LOW
IS LOCATED OVER FAR SE CO WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NWD
ACROSS WRN KS INTO WCNTRL NEB. SFC DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE BOUNDARY
ARE NEAR 60 F AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY IS
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE MOIST AXIS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN
ECNTRL CO AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EWD INTO INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN WCNTRL
NEB LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION INITIATING FURTHER SOUTH IN
WRN KS AS A CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENS BY EARLY EVENING. HOW FAR
SOUTH INITIATION WILL OCCUR STILL REMAINS QUESTIONABLE ATTM.

THE MID-LEVEL JET APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST IS ALREADY
CREATING STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FROM NW KS INTO WCNTRL NEB.
THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AS STORMS
INITIATE. A TRANSITION TO A MORE LINEAR STRUCTURED MCS MAY OCCUR
DEPENDING ON HOW MANY STORMS INITIATE THIS EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO STEEPEN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS THE JET COMES
OUT AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
SUGGESTS SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED VERY
LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY IN PLACE. A FEW TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR AS SUPERCELLS
MATURE AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES EARLY THIS EVENING. FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS SW KS...NW OK AND THE ERN TX PANHANDLE...THE SEVERE
THREAT THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN CONDITIONAL. IF STORMS INITIATE IN
THIS REGION...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PROFILES APPEAR ADEQUATE FOR
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.

CONCERNING THE OVERNIGHT THREAT...MODEL FORECASTS AGREE WITH
DEVELOPING AN MCS OVER CNTRL AND NRN KS TONIGHT. ALSO...THE NAM
SUSTAINS NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IN ECNTRL NEB. THESE TWO AREAS APPEAR
TO HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

..NRN PLAINS...
A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN ROCKIES. A BROAD ZONE OF LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WHICH COMBINED WITH POCKETS
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG A BOUNDARY ORIENTED SOUTH
TO NORTH FROM SCNTRL SD TO A SFC LOW IN SERN ND. REGIONAL PROFILERS
AND WSR-88D VWPS CURRENTLY SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 KT
SUGGESTING ENOUGH SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL
SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENING
AS THE EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS
STORM COVERAGE INCREASES AND CONVECTION MOVES INTO AREAS WITH LESS
INSTABILITY...SEVERE MULTICELLS WITH A HAIL POTENTIAL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

..SW LA/FAR SW MS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN MCV MOVING ACROSS EAST TX AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FEATURE THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR
SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. CONCERNING
MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ABOUT THIS MARGINAL SEVERE
THREAT...REFERENCE MCD 860.

.BROYLES.. 05/22/2007

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0860

ACUS11 KWNS 221930
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221930
LAZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-222230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0860
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL...CENTRAL AND WRN LA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 221930Z - 222230Z

HEAVY RAINFALL WITH HRLY RATES OVER 2 IN/HR ARE ANTICIPATED TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A N-S ORIENTED DEEP CONVERGENCE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM SCENTRAL LA INTO NCENTRAL LA THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...AN ISOLATED MARGINAL
SVR HAIL/WIND THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF WRN LA. A
WW IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THIS ACTIVITY.

LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF DEEP MOIST CONVERGENCE
EXTENDING FROM SCENTRAL LA INTO NCENTRAL LA. REGIONAL VWP/S SUPPORT
THIS WITH BROAD SSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER SWRN/WCENTRAL LA /ON THE
SW SIDE OF AN MCV/ AND SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER SERN LA AND SWRN MS.
A MODERATE VALUE OF PWAT /120 PERCENT OF NORMAL AT LCH AT 12Z/
EXISTS OVER THE AREA. GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING CURRENT/STORM
MOTIONS AND MODEST INSTABILITY /MUCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG/ ONGOING
TSTMS OVER SCENTRAL/CENTRAL LA ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP
OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHILE MOVING SLOWLY
NWD /PARALLEL TO THE DEEP LAYER FLOW/. TSTMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
BACKBUILD SLIGHTLY WSWWD INTO THE MODEST LAPSE RATE FEED. BOTH OF
THESE FACTORS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CELL TRAINING AND VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES /UPWARDS OF 2 IN/HR/. FURTHER WEST...STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES /AROUND 7 C/KM/ AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR /25 TO 30
KTS/ ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN MCV /OVER ECENTRAL TX/ ALONG WITH RECENT
CLEARING /DESTABILIZATION TRENDS SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF A
MARGINAL SVR HAIL/WIND THREAT DEVELOPING OVER WRN LA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

.CROSBIE.. 05/22/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

29419160 30769139 31629163 32479226 32299330 31639376
30789348 30359265 29159211

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0859

ACUS11 KWNS 221927
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221926
NEZ000-KSZ000-222130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0859
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SCNTRL NEB...WRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 221926Z - 222130Z

TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE BETWEEN 21-22Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF SCNTRL NEB
AND WRN KS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF
THE REGION.

LATEST PROFILER/VWP PLOTS SHOW AN AREA OF INCREASING DIVERGENCE
ALOFT AS H5/H25 JET TURNS NWD ACROSS ERN CO INTO NEB AND A SECOND
BRANCH PEELS MORE ENEWD ACROSS OK AND CNTRL KS. AT THE
SFC...LEE-LOW OVER EXTREME SWRN KS AT 18Z IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SLOWLY NEWD ALONG AN INITIAL SURGE OF MORE DENSE/COLD AIR INTO NWRN
KS BY LATE AFTN. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS BACKED
TO SSELY WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE NOTED FROM NEAR LEXINGTON NEB
SWWD TO NEAR/NW OF GARDEN CITY KS. VSBL SATL SHOWS INCREASING SFC
BASED CUMULUS ALONG THIS ZONE AND CONTINUED HEATING SHOULD ERASE
INHIBITION SUFFICIENTLY FOR INITIATION BY 22Z.

VERTICAL SHEAR IS MORE SUBSTANTIAL ACROSS SRN NEB AND KS GIVEN
GREATER DEGREE OF CROSS-OVER BETWEEN LOW- AND MID-LEVEL FLOW
REGIMES. THUS...THE SUPERCELL THREAT WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER THAN AT
POINTS FARTHER TO THE NORTH. STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND MAGNITUDE
OF SHEAR SUGGEST LARGE HAIL...SOME LARGER THAN 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER...WILL BE LIKELY. MOREOVER...0-1KM SHEAR...PARTICULARLY
VCNTY THE SFC LOW TRACK...WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR TORNADOES.

ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD TOWARD CNTRL KS AND SCNTRL NEB
TOWARD THE US HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR LATER THIS EVENING.

.RACY.. 05/22/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

38280174 39950123 41650077 42090019 42109893 41239829
40289854 38209950

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 287

WWUS20 KWNS 221924
SEL7
SPC WW 221924
NEZ000-SDZ000-230300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 287
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
225 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 225 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTH OF
AINSWORTH NEBRASKA TO 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF ABERDEEN SOUTH
DAKOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING/INTENSIFYING
NNEWD ACROSS WW THROUGH THE EVENING. AIR MASS IS MARGINAL TO
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS AND
ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS/LINES. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 20025.

..EVANS

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KAMA [221920]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 221920
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
220 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0807 PM HAIL 9 NNW PAMPA 35.67N 101.03W
05/21/2007 E1.50 INCH ROBERTS TX PUBLIC

QUARTER TO PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL LASTED A FEW
MINUTES

&&

$$

MRK

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0858

ACUS11 KWNS 221908
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221908
SDZ000-NEZ000-222115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0858
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN SD AND NCNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 221908Z - 222115Z

18Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 997 MB SFC LOW OVER CNTRL ND WITH A
TRAILING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SWD THROUGH ERN SD AND CNTRL NEB.
PRIMARY SFC COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS NCNTRL-SWRN SD.

18Z LBF SOUNDING SAMPLED A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING MCV MOVING NEWD THROUGH SERN ND. BUT...SFC TEMPERATURES
WERE WARMING RAPIDLY WHERE CLOUDS HAVE THINNED OVER CNTRL/ERN SD
WITH INHIBITION GRADUALLY WEAKENING. LOW-LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE FLOW GRADUALLY BACKING TO SLY ACROSS MOST OF CNTRL/ERN
PARTS OF NEB/SD AND INCREASING CONVERGENCE WAS CONTRIBUTING TO TSTM
DEVELOPMENT NEAR/W OF WINNER SD.

INSPECTION OF VWP/PROFILERS SUGGESTS THAT DEEP SLY FLOW EXISTS AS
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BACK IN ADVANCE OF THE UPSTREAM UPR
LEVEL TROUGH. THUS...THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR TSTMS TO BECOME
LINEAR QUICKLY AS DEEP LAYER FLOW REMAINS ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE
BOUNDARY. LAPSE RATES IN THE H7-H5 LAYER REMAIN QUITE STEEP...ON
THE ORDER OF 7.5-8 DEG C PER KM...SO DESPITE ONLY MODEST SHEAR IN
THE LOWEST 6KM...LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NNEWD FROM NCNTRL NEB/SCNTRL SD INTO
PARTS OF CNTRL-NERN SD LATER THIS AFTN. TRAINING STORMS WILL ALSO
HAVE THE RISK OF PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL.

.RACY.. 05/22/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

45729899 44509795 43309836 42439958 42120060 42180175
43370180 44240141 44730125 45729985

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KFGF [221906]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 221906
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
206 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1030 PM HAIL 1 SW CLYDE 48.76N 98.91W
05/21/2007 E0.75 INCH CAVALIER ND PUBLIC

&&

$$

WBARRETT

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0857

ACUS11 KWNS 221850
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221849
KSZ000-COZ000-222115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0857
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...ECENTRAL/SERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 221849Z - 222115Z

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ALONG THE SRN COLORADO
FRONT RANGE IN THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS...WHILE EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS OF ECENTRAL/SERN CO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE
TSTMS MAY POSE A MARGINAL SVR WIND/HAIL THREAT...BUT A WW IS NOT
EXPECTED ATTM.

LATEST VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY AND LOCAL WEB CAMS SHOWS MODERATE CU
ALONG MUCH OF THE SRN CO FRONT RANGE. ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED BETWEEN COS AND DEN...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED SWD OVER THE SRN CO FRONT RANGE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
RECENT SFC MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATED AN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
AXIS ALONG AND ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST NORTH OF SPRINGFIELD INTO NRN LAS ANIMAS
COUNTY /BETWEEN TRINIDAD AND PUEBLO/. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT 70/45 AT PUEBLO WOULD HAVE MINIMAL REMAINING CINH AND AROUND
500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. ALONG WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW /AROUND 50
KTS/ ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/WIND THREAT. ANY ISOLATED SVR TSTM
ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD MOVE EWD ALONG AFOREMENTIONED
INSTABILITY AXIS INTO ECENTRAL/SERN CO THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.
OTHER TSTMS THAT MIGHT DEVELOP IN THE NRN CO FRONT RANGE WILL
ENCOUNTER A MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OVER NERN CO.

.CROSBIE.. 05/22/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

39340449 39230480 38880485 38510462 38170444 37770420
37500368 37590231 38350198 39480197 39490227 39500276
39230370

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KAMA [221840]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 221840
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
140 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0802 PM HAIL 10 NNW PAMPA 35.68N 101.03W
05/21/2007 E0.75 INCH ROBERTS TX PUBLIC

&&

$$

MRK

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KMSO [221808]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 221808
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1207 PM MDT TUE MAY 22 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1206 PM HEAVY SNOW PHILIPSBURG 46.33N 113.29W
05/22/2007 M16.0 INCH GRANITE MT NWS EMPLOYEE

16 TO 21 INCHES OF SNOW FELL OVERNIGHT IN THE
PHILIIPSBURG AREA.

&&

$$

NICKLESS

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KFGF [221741]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 221741
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
1241 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1010 PM HAIL 2 N DRAYTON 48.59N 97.18W
05/21/2007 E0.75 INCH PEMBINA ND PUBLIC

&&

$$

PATRIAYD

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0856

ACUS11 KWNS 221735
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221735
TXZ000-221930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0856
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SCENTRAL TX/MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAINS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 221735Z - 221930Z

AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COASTAL
PLAINS OF SCENTRAL TX IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED
GIVEN THE LACK OF GREATER AREAL COVERAGE/MARGINAL NATURE OF THE SVR
THREAT.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE CU DEVELOPING ALONG
BOTH A N-S ORIENTED CONFLUENT AXIS AND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN MIDDLE
TX COASTAL PLAINS INVOF MATAGORDA BAY. A MODIFIED 12Z CRP SOUNDING
INDICATES LESS THAN 25 J/KG OF MLCINH ACROSS THE AREA WITH AROUND
2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. RECENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. GIVEN CONTINUED HEATING AND
DESTABILIZATION...AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM MAY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
INVOF OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/CONFLUENCE TROUGH INTERSECTION INVOF
MATAGORDA BAY WHERE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. 15-20 KTS BACKED
ESELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WILL AUGMENT WEAKER MID LEVEL FLOW TO SUPPORT SUFFICIENTLY STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES OF 35-40 KTS TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORM
STRUCTURE. THUS DESPITE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...MARGINAL SVR
HAIL/DMGG WINDS GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.CROSBIE.. 05/22/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

27839696 27849742 28269773 28699783 29479758 29669744
29529675 28609600 28279617

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 221735
SWODY2
SPC AC 221733

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NW OK...CNTRL
AND NE KS...SE NEB AND THE FAR NE TX PANHANDLE...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS...SRN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

..SRN/CNTRL PLAINS...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE WRN STATES. MODEL FORECASTS MOVE THIS FEATURE GRADUALLY EWD
ACROSS THE ROCKIES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY INCREASING LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...A SFC LOW NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE AND A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING NEWD FROM THE LOW INTO CNTRL KS AND SE NEB WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND
VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODEL FORECASTS MOVE A BROAD MID-LEVEL JET EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES FROM 40 TO 60 KT SUGGESTING
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY IN THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS SHOULD
EXIST ACROSS KS AND NW OK WHERE INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LATER
AND STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS. THIS AREA WILL BE
NORTHEAST OF A SFC LOW AND SFC WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BACKED. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN STRONG SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER RESULTING IN A TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NAM AND GFS MODEL
FORECASTS BOTH AGREE THAT A STRONG-LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP BY
EARLY EVENING FROM THE AREA AROUND GAG OK NNEWD TO SALINA KS. THIS
FEATURE WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND A THREAT
FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP WEST AND NORTH OF THE
LOW-LEVEL JET BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE IN
THE EVENING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL MCS CLUSTERS DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD ACROSS
THE REGION.

..UPPER MIDWEST...
MODEL FORECASTS MOVE A WRN U.S. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EWD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPING IN THE NRN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...A LOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER MANITOBA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EWD ACROSS MN AND
WRN IA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
IN PLACE SUGGESTING SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE GREATER SWWD ALONG THE
BOUNDARY SUGGESTING THE SEVERE WEATHER REPORT COVERAGE OF LARGE HAIL
AND WIND DAMAGE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM CNTRL MN SWWD ACROSS
WRN IA

.BROYLES.. 05/22/2007

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KEWX [221724]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 221724
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1223 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0259 AM DOWNBURST 2 ESE ROUND ROCK 30.51N 97.64W
05/22/2007 WILLIAMSON TX PUBLIC

ESTIMATED 100 MPH WIND

&&

$$

CRB/JPB

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KAMA [221640]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 221640
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1140 AM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0812 PM HAIL 5 N DAWN 34.98N 102.20W
05/21/2007 E0.75 INCH DEAF SMITH TX PUBLIC

&&

$$

MRK

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KHNX [221640]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 221640
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
940 AM PDT TUE MAY 22 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0546 PM NON-TSTM WND GST MOJAVE 35.05N 118.18W
05/21/2007 M70 MPH KERN CA MESONET

&&

$$

BROTHERTON

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KTFX [221629]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 221629
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1029 AM MDT TUE MAY 22 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0845 AM SNOW MARYSVILLE 46.75N 112.30W
05/22/2007 M3.0 INCH LEWIS AND CLARK MT LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWER IS OUT AT MARYSVILLE

0854 AM HEAVY SNOW 6 N BASIN 46.36N 112.26W
05/22/2007 M13.5 INCH JEFFERSON MT MESONET

ROCKER PEAK SNOTEL - ELEVATION 8000 FEET

&&

$$

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 221623
SWODY1
SPC AC 221620

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007

VALID 221630Z - 231200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PART OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...

..SERN SD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
MORNING DETERMINISTIC AND OVERNIGHT SREF/HIGH-RES WRF GUIDANCE ARE
IN AGREEMENT IN FOCUSED SEVERE THREAT AREA FROM PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NEB INTO NWRN KS...SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THUS...VERY FEW
CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO PREVIOUS DAY 1 OUTLOOKS. 70-80M HEIGHT FALLS
AT H5 AT RIW AND GJT INDICATE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN/DIG ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH AN
IMPULSE EJECTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING.
SURFACE PATTERN IS SOMEWHAT MUDDLED BY PRE-FRONTAL GRAVITY WAVE
WHICH HAS SURGED EWD WELL AHEAD OF PRIMARY COLD FRONT THIS MORNING
OVER NWRN KS/SRN NEB. EXPECT HEATING/MIXING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL ERODE/LIFT CAP AND DIMINISH THIS WAVE BY THE
AFTERNOON...REFOCUSING ATTENTION ALONG COLD FRONT/DRY LINE WHICH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS CENTRAL SD AND WRN NEB/KS.

THOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN MODEST FOR LATE MAY...COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SUFFICIENT HEATING WILL SUPPORT MODERATE
INSTABILITY INTO CENTRAL NEB. COMBINATION OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ALONG NOSE OF 100+ KT H25 JET AND CONVERGENCE INVOF COLD
FRONT WILL OVERCOME WEAKENING CAP. THIS WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FROM THE NEB SAND HILLS /AND POSSIBLY SCENTRAL-SERN SD
EAST OF THE MO RIVER/ INTO NWRN KS BETWEEN 21-00Z. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER INITIATION...WITH ATTENDANT THREAT
OF A FEW TORNADOES. IN ADDITION...RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD ENHANCE HAIL GROWTH AND COULD
SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO SMALL
LINEAR SEGMENTS DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING...WITH SEVERE THREAT
WANING LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS STORMS EVOLVE INTO ONE OR TWO
MCSS AND SHIFT EWD ACROSS KS/ERN NEB.

..ERN ND/WRN MN/NERN SD...
EJECTING MID LEVEL IMPULSE IS MOVING NNEWD INTO SERN ND LATE THIS
MORNING. ATTENDANT 40+ KT LLJ WILL ALSO SPREAD NWD AND EXTEND
ACROSS WRN MN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. BROKEN CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS
IMPULSE OVER NWRN MN/NERN ND MAY INCREASE THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE/INTENSITY BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THOUGH AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE...RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE
RATES/INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL SHEAR SUGGEST SEVERE THREAT REMAINS
LOW.

..SRN HIGH PLAINS...
PRESENCE OF MODEST WSWLY FLOW OVERSPREADING THE DRY LINE OVER THE
OK/ERN TX PANHANDLES AND SWRN KS TODAY WARRANTS MAINTAINING
CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT. CAPPING APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY STRONG AND
MAY INHIBIT INITIATION ALTOGETHER. HOWEVER WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
INTO THE MID 80S AND MODEST CONVERGENCE...AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EARLY THIS EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAMKF AND RUC YIELD MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF
2000 J/KG...WITH NAMKF AND NAM BOTH GENERATING BRIEF QPF BETWEEN
00Z-03Z OVER THE SERN TX PANHANDLE/FAR SWRN OK. OTHER MODELS KEEP
THINGS DRY/MAINTAIN CAP SOUTH OF TRIPLE POINT LOW OVER NWRN KS.
SHOULD A STORM FIRE...IT WILL MOST CERTAINLY BECOME
SUPERCELLULAR/SEVERE VERY QUICKLY WITH MULTITUDE OF SEVERE THREATS.
SLOW MOVING STORMS WOULD THEN DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.

.EVANS/CROSBIE.. 05/22/2007

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KSJT [221542]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 221542
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1041 AM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0358 PM TSTM WND GST 2 S BROWNWOOD 31.68N 98.99W
05/02/2007 M87 MPH BROWN TX MESONET

ANEMOMETER BROKE AT 87 MPH.

&&

$$

09

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KSJT [221517]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 221517
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1017 AM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1245 AM DOWNBURST OZONA 30.71N 101.20W
05/07/2007 CROCKETT TX EMERGENCY MNGR

SMALL TRAVEL TRAILER OVERTURNED AND SIGN BLOWN DOWN.

&&

$$

09

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KMSO [221516]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 221516
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
916 AM MDT TUE MAY 22 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0904 AM HEAVY SNOW AVON 46.60N 112.60W
05/22/2007 M16.0 INCH POWELL MT LAW ENFORCEMENT

16 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW FELL IN AVON OVERNIGHT.

0904 AM HEAVY SNOW 1 ENE ELLISTON 46.57N 112.42W
05/22/2007 M16.0 INCH POWELL MT TRAINED SPOTTER

TREES ARE BROKEN FROM WEIGHT OF SNOW AND POWER WAS OUT
ALL NIGHT.

0904 AM HEAVY SNOW ENE AVON 46.60N 112.60W
05/22/2007 E16.0 INCH POWELL MT TRAINED SPOTTER

CURRENTLY 8 INCHES ON THE GROUND. TREES BROKEN FROM
WEIGHT OF SNOW AND POWER OUTAGES.

&&

$$

NICKLESS

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KTFX [221434]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 221434
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
834 AM MDT TUE MAY 22 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0826 AM HEAVY SNOW BASIN 46.27N 112.26W
05/22/2007 M6.5 INCH JEFFERSON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

6.5 INCHES ON GROUND AT 800 AM.

&&

$$

CZELZER

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KFGF [221415]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 221415
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
915 AM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 AM FLASH FLOOD 2 W YORK 48.31N 99.62W
05/22/2007 BENSON ND FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

NUMEROUS ROADS WERE FLOODED BETWEEN YORK AND KNOX. ONE
FARMER HAD HIS ROAD FLOODED IN 4 PLACES. 5.00 INCHES OF
RAIN FELL IN ABOUT 3 HOURS.

&&

$$

VGODON

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KFGF [221414]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 221414
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
913 AM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1130 PM FLASH FLOOD YORK 48.31N 99.57W
05/21/2007 BENSON ND TRAINED SPOTTER

SEVERAL ROADS REPORTED UNDER WATER.

&&

$$

WBARRETT

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KRNK [221349]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 221349
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
949 AM EDT TUE MAY 22 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0745 PM TSTM WND DMG BROOKNEAL 37.05N 78.97W
05/21/2007 CAMPBELL VA TRAINED SPOTTER

THUNDERSTORM WINDS BLEW THE ROOF OFF A 60 BY 100 FOOT
BARN.

&&

$$

HYSELL

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KBIS [221326]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 221326
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
826 AM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0745 PM HAIL 3 W CENTER 47.12N 101.36W
05/21/2007 M1.00 INCH OLIVER ND PUBLIC

HAIL FROM 745 TO 752 PM. LOST ONE WINDOW.

&&

$$

LLP

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KMSO [221257]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 221257
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
656 AM MDT TUE MAY 22 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0646 AM HEAVY SNOW 4 WNW WEST VALLEY 46.17N 113.10W
05/22/2007 M13.5 INCH DEER LODGE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOW FELL FROM 6PM MONDAY TO 6AM TUESDAY MORNING.

0646 AM HEAVY SNOW 1 WNW GEORGETOWN 46.21N 113.27W
05/22/2007 M19.0 INCH DEER LODGE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

NEW SNOW THAT FELL OVERNIGHT.

&&

$$

NICKLESS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 221246
SWODY1
SPC AC 221244

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 AM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007

VALID 221300Z - 231200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SE SD ACROSS CENTRAL NEB
TO WRN KS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

..SYNOPSIS...
A MID LEVEL LOW OVER WRN WY WILL LIFT NEWD TOWARD WRN ND AS AN
EMBEDDED SPEED MAX ROTATES EWD/NEWD AROUND THE SERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW TO WRN NEB BY THIS EVENING...AND THE CENTRAL/ERN DAKOTAS
OVERNIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS MID LEVEL WAVE...A SURFACE CYCLONE IN
CENTRAL SD WILL DEVELOP NNEWD ACROSS ERN ND TO SE MANITOBA BY THIS
EVENING...WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
AND SEWD ACROSS NEB/NW KS. A SEPARATE LEE CYCLONE IN ERN CO THIS
MORNING WILL DEVELOP SWD TOWARD NE NM/NW TX PANHANDLE BY TONIGHT AS
SWLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES OVER THE CO FRONT RANGE. THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NEB...BACK TO THE TRIPLE POINT IN NW KS...WILL BE
THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

..CENTRAL NEB TO WRN KS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F/ IS SPREADING
NWD FROM OK/ERN TX PANHANDLE TO KS ON A 35-50 KT LLJ THIS
MORNING...IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS THAT DISSIPATED
OVERNIGHT. THE REMAINING DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY ACROSS KS/NEB...WHICH WILL
ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S NEAR AND S/SW OF THE
TRIPLE POINT THIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD INCREASE TO
1500-2500 J/KG IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOW-LEVEL WARMING AND
MOISTENING BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE
WEAKER CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND STRONGER LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ARE
EXPECTED NE OF THE TRIPLE POINT FROM NW KS INTO CENTRAL NEB ALONG
THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

WHILE THE LOW LEVELS DESTABILIZE DURING THE AFTERNOON...DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE NEAR AND JUST NE OF THE TRIPLE
POINT...ON THE NOSE OF THE MID-UPPER JET EJECTING NEWD OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...L0W-LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE
AGAIN THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRENGTHENING LLJ ACROSS
KS/OK. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE EVENING. THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
DISCRETE STORMS COULD BE LIMITED BY DEEP LAYER FLOW/SHEAR SOMEWHAT
PARALLEL TO THE COLD FRONT...AND PERSISTENT MOISTURE INFLUX INTO THE
FRONTAL ZONE WHICH WILL FAVOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A LINEAR MCS
TONIGHT ACROSS NRN KS/NEB.

..EXTREME SW KS TO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE THIS EVENING...
THE DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S ALONG THE
DRYLINE MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT MIXING TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS EVENING INVOF
THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. IF DEEP CONVECTION DOES FORM...INSTABILITY
AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS/STABILIZES LATE THIS EVENING.

..NE SD INTO ERN ND/NW MN TODAY...
PRIOR CONVECTION HAS EXHAUSTED MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY ACROSS
ND...WITH ONLY A NARROW CORRIDOR OF RICHER MOISTURE FROM NE SD INTO
SE ND AND NW MN. A WELL-DEFINED MCV IS MOVING TOWARD THIS AREA FROM
CENTRAL SD...AND CONVECTION WITH THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY REMOVE
MUCH OF THE LINGERING INSTABILITY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
THEREFORE...ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN
MARGINAL.

..E/SE TX AREA TODAY...
ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER SE TX WILL MOVE EWD TOWARD SW LA
TODAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA WITHIN THE
SUBTROPICAL JET. HOWEVER...THE STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE E OF THE
PRIMARY MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE DAY...THUS
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING.

.THOMPSON/TAYLOR.. 05/22/2007

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