SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221908
SDZ000-NEZ000-222115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0858
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 PM CDT TUE MAY 22 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN SD AND NCNTRL NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 221908Z - 222115Z
18Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 997 MB SFC LOW OVER CNTRL ND WITH A
TRAILING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SWD THROUGH ERN SD AND CNTRL NEB.
PRIMARY SFC COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS NCNTRL-SWRN SD.
18Z LBF SOUNDING SAMPLED A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING MCV MOVING NEWD THROUGH SERN ND. BUT...SFC TEMPERATURES
WERE WARMING RAPIDLY WHERE CLOUDS HAVE THINNED OVER CNTRL/ERN SD
WITH INHIBITION GRADUALLY WEAKENING. LOW-LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE FLOW GRADUALLY BACKING TO SLY ACROSS MOST OF CNTRL/ERN
PARTS OF NEB/SD AND INCREASING CONVERGENCE WAS CONTRIBUTING TO TSTM
DEVELOPMENT NEAR/W OF WINNER SD.
INSPECTION OF VWP/PROFILERS SUGGESTS THAT DEEP SLY FLOW EXISTS AS
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BACK IN ADVANCE OF THE UPSTREAM UPR
LEVEL TROUGH. THUS...THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR TSTMS TO BECOME
LINEAR QUICKLY AS DEEP LAYER FLOW REMAINS ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE
BOUNDARY. LAPSE RATES IN THE H7-H5 LAYER REMAIN QUITE STEEP...ON
THE ORDER OF 7.5-8 DEG C PER KM...SO DESPITE ONLY MODEST SHEAR IN
THE LOWEST 6KM...LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NNEWD FROM NCNTRL NEB/SCNTRL SD INTO
PARTS OF CNTRL-NERN SD LATER THIS AFTN. TRAINING STORMS WILL ALSO
HAVE THE RISK OF PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL.
.RACY.. 05/22/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...
45729899 44509795 43309836 42439958 42120060 42180175
43370180 44240141 44730125 45729985
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