KPUB [160151]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 160151
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
651 PM MST MON NOV 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0645 PM SNOW 2 WNW RYE 37.93N 104.96W
11/15/2010 M2.0 INCH PUEBLO CO NWS EMPLOYEE

SNOWFALL TOTAL FOR 90 MINUTE PERIOD ENDING AT
APPROXIMATELY 645 PM MST

&&

$$

LW

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KGJT [160150]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 160150
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
650 PM MST MON NOV 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 PM HEAVY SNOW MONUMENT (HIGHWAY 550) 37.97N 107.66W
11/15/2010 M7.5 INCH OURAY CO AVALANCHE FCSTR

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AS OF 430 PM.

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1000726

$$

MALEKSA

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KGJT [160113]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 160113
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
613 PM MST MON NOV 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM HEAVY SNOW 10 WNW CRESTED BUTTE 38.93N 107.15W
11/15/2010 M14.0 INCH GUNNISON CO AVALANCHE FCSTR

24 HOUR STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AT IRWIN LODGE. ADDITIONAL
4 INCHES SINCE 730 AM.

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1000725

$$

MALEKSA

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KGJT [160059]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 160059
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
559 PM MST MON NOV 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0558 PM SNOW SILVERTON 37.81N 107.66W
11/15/2010 M4.0 INCH SAN JUAN CO TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL. ADDITIONAL 2 INCHES SINCE
7 AM.

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1000724

$$

MALEKSA

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KGJT [160058]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 160058
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
558 PM MST MON NOV 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM SNOW TELLURIDE 37.94N 107.81W
11/15/2010 M7.0 INCH SAN MIGUEL CO PUBLIC

24 HR STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AT THE TELLURIDE SKI AREA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1000723

$$

MALEKSA

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 160053
SWODY1
SPC AC 160052

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0652 PM CST MON NOV 15 2010

VALID 160100Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES...

...GULF COAST STATES...
ONGOING SHOWERS/TSTMS AND A RAIN-REINFORCED BOUNDARY HAVE HINDERED
APPRECIABLE DESTABILIZATION AND THE INLAND PENETRATION OF A MARITIME
AIRMASS THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.
HOWEVER...A CONTINUED GRADUAL NORTHWARD RETREAT IS EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF
LA/MS/AL...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS VIA AN
AMPLIFYING/INCREASINGLY NEUTRAL TILT UPPER TROUGH OVER TX /AND
EVENTUALLY LA VICINITY EARLY TUESDAY/. AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS LA/MS...LOW LEVEL WINDS
FIELDS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED
POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND/OR A TORNADO PROVIDED CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL MOISTENING INLAND AND AT LEAST MINIMAL NEAR-SURFACE BUOYANCY.

..GUYER.. 11/16/2010

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KGJT [152355]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 152355
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
455 PM MST MON NOV 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0453 PM HEAVY SNOW RED MOUNTAIN PASS 37.90N 107.70W
11/15/2010 M15.0 INCH OURAY CO AVALANCHE FCSTR

24 HOUR STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL SO FAR. STILL SNOWING
HEAVILY TO TOP OF RMP.

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1000722

$$

MALEKSA

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KJAX [152219]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 152219
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
519 PM EST MON NOV 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM WILDFIRE 10 NW HOMERVILLE 31.13N 82.89W
11/15/2010 CLINCH GA EMERGENCY MNGR

THE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED THAT THE WILDFIRE IN
NORTHERN CLINCH COUNTY HAS REACHED APPROXIMATELY 700
ACRES.

&&

$$

PP

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KMOB [152204]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMOB 152204 CCA
LSRMOB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
401 PM CST MON NOV 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 PM TSTM WND DMG RED LEVEL 31.41N 86.61W
11/15/2010 COVINGTON AL EMERGENCY MNGR

MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO A LOCAL CAFE, AND AN ADVERTISING
SIGN WAS DAMAGED.

&&

$$

JG

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KMOB [152201]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMOB 152201
LSRMOB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
401 PM CST MON NOV 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 PM DUST STORM RED LEVEL 31.41N 86.61W
11/15/2010 COVINGTON AL EMERGENCY MNGR

MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO A LOCAL CAFE, AND AN ADVERTISING
SIGN WAS DAMAGED.

&&

$$

JG

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KMOB [152159]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMOB 152159
LSRMOB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
358 PM CST MON NOV 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0215 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 S ANDALUSIA 31.28N 86.48W
11/15/2010 COVINGTON AL PUBLIC

TREES BLOWN DOWN AND A TRAMPOLINE WAS BLOWN AROUND.

&&

$$

JG

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KGJT [152149]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 152149
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
249 PM MST MON NOV 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM SNOW GLENWOOD SPRINGS 39.54N 107.33W
11/15/2010 M6.5 INCH GARFIELD CO AVALANCHE FCSTR

SNOWFALL TOTAL AS OF 9 AM.

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1000721

$$

MALEKSA

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KBOU [152021]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KBOU 152021
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
121 PM MST MON NOV 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1027 AM SNOW 8 SE WATKINS 39.67N 104.49W
11/15/2010 M2.4 INCH ARAPAHOE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0900 AM SNOW 12 SSE AURORA 39.54N 104.73W
11/15/2010 M1.8 INCH DOUGLAS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0800 AM SNOW BRIGGSDALE 40.63N 104.32W
11/15/2010 M3.2 INCH WELD CO CO-OP OBSERVER

0800 AM SNOW 8 ESE LONGMONT 40.13N 104.97W
11/15/2010 M1.0 INCH WELD CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0751 AM HEAVY SNOW ST MARYS GLACIER 39.84N 105.65W
11/15/2010 M6.0 INCH CLEAR CREEK CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0751 AM SNOW 2 N LONGMONT 40.20N 105.11W
11/15/2010 M0.3 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0730 AM SNOW 3 SE BRECKENRIDGE 39.48N 106.01W
11/15/2010 M4.4 INCH SUMMIT CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0730 AM SNOW 1 NW NEDERLAND 39.97N 105.52W
11/15/2010 M1.2 INCH BOULDER CO AMATEUR RADIO

0700 AM SNOW 4 WSW EATON 40.50N 104.78W
11/15/2010 M1.0 INCH WELD CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM SNOW 2 W TABERNASH 39.98N 105.89W
11/15/2010 M3.0 INCH GRAND CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM SNOW 1 SW SEVERANCE 40.51N 104.86W
11/15/2010 M1.6 INCH WELD CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM SNOW 3 SW WINDSOR 40.45N 104.95W
11/15/2010 M1.3 INCH LARIMER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM SNOW 4 NNE TIMNATH 40.58N 104.95W
11/15/2010 M2.9 INCH LARIMER CO AMATEUR RADIO

0700 AM SNOW 3 E FORT COLLINS 40.56N 105.01W
11/15/2010 M2.8 INCH LARIMER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM SNOW 9 NW GREELEY 40.51N 104.87W
11/15/2010 M1.5 INCH WELD CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM HEAVY SNOW 10 NW KREMMLING 40.16N 106.51W
11/15/2010 M6.5 INCH GRAND CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0537 AM SNOW 5 E KEYSTONE 39.61N 105.87W
11/15/2010 M7.0 INCH SUMMIT CO MESONET

A-BASIN 24 HOUR TOTAL RELAYED BY COLORADO AVALANCHE
INFORMATION CENTER

&&

$$

FREDIN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 151957
SWODY1
SPC AC 151956

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CST MON NOV 15 2010

VALID 152000Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE CNTRL/ERN GULF
COAST...

.CHANGE TO PREV OUTLOOK:

1) SHIFT E EDGE OF SLIGHT RISK FARTHER E ALONG THE ERN GULF COAST.

BAND OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD IMPULSE EJECTING INTO THE TN
VLY THIS AFTERNOON IS MOVING ENE SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS MORE STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR GA/FL/AL BORDERS. OVERNIGHT...NEW STORMS
FORMING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN OK/TX
WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST. RECENT MODELS HAVE
HINTED AT A FASTER EVOLUTION/MOVEMENT OF THESE STORMS AND PARTS OF
THE ERN GULF COAST MAY EXPERIENCE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES/DAMAGING WINDS BY 12Z.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

..RACY/HALES/STOPPKOTTE.. 11/15/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CST MON NOV 15 2010/

...CENTRAL GULF COAST...
DEEPENING TROUGH SRN PLAINS SUPPORTED BY VERY STRONG NLY JET MAX
CURRENTLY ID/UT INTO AZ. WITH THE UPSTREAM VIGOROUS TROUGH MOVING
INTO PAC NW TONIGHT...THE PLAINS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE
LWR MS VALLEY WITH RESULTANT VERY FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES IN SUPPORT OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION INCLUDING SUPERCELL
POTENTIAL.

A LEAD S/WV TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG WSWLY FLOW IN CONCERT WITH
STEADY INCREASE IN GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED FROM SRN GA/AL TO SERN LA HAS GENERATED CONSIDERABLE
OVERNIGHT NON-SEVERE CONVECTION.

AS THE SRN PLAINS TROUGH APPROACHES MODELS DEVELOP A WAVE ON THE
STALLED FRONTAL ZONE OVER SRN MS TONIGHT. INCREASING LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WITH TROUGH SPREADS ACROSS LWR MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT WITH
SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN NEWD INTO AL BY 12Z TUE AS
STRONG JET MAX ROTATES EWD ALONG CENTRAL GULF COAST.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS WITH PASSAGE OF FIRST
IMPULSE CONFINING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
INCLUDING BRIEF SUPERCELLS NEAR THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM SERN LA TO
SRN AL. AIR MASS INITIALLY CONTAINS MINIMAL INSTABILITY GIVEN THE
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STILL ARRIVING GULF MOISTURE.

HOWEVER SOME DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH STEADY GULF MOISTURE
INFLOW WILL LEAD TO MLCAPES TO 500 J/KG SERN LA/SRN MS/SWRN AL THIS
AFTERNOON.

OVERNIGHT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM MS INTO AL WILL
ALLOW MOIST WARM SECTOR TO SPREAD FURTHER INLAND ACROSS SRN AL/FL
PANHANDLE. AT THE SAME TIME THE SHEAR PROFILES WILL INTENSIFY
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS/ISOLATED
TORNADOES. KINEMATICS OVERNIGHT...IE SHEAR AND SYNOPTIC SCALE
ASCENT...WILL BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS HOWEVER
INSTABILITY STILL EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED WITH MLCAPES GENERALLY AOB
500 J/KG. INSTABILITY WILL BE A LITTLE GREATER NEAR THE IMMEDIATE
GULF COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE MID/UPR 60S.

HAVE EXTENDED THE RISK 0F SUPERCELLS/ISOLATED TORNADOES EWD ACROSS
SERN AL AND FL PANHANDLE FOR TONIGHT AS SUFFICIENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AFTER 06Z.

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KTFX [151954]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 151954
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1254 PM MST MON NOV 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM HEAVY SNOW 9 SSE RAYNESFORD 47.15N 110.66W
11/15/2010 E8.0 INCH JUDITH BASIN MT PUBLIC

ESTIMATED 8 INCHES OF SNOW FELL OVERNIGHT

&&

$$

NJL

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KTFX [151948]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 151948
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1247 PM MST MON NOV 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW RAYNESFORD 47.27N 110.73W
11/15/2010 E1.5 INCH JUDITH BASIN MT PUBLIC

ESTIMATED 1.5 INCES OF SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT

&&

$$

NJL

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KRIW [151849]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KRIW 151849
LSRRIW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1147 AM MDT MON NOV 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1014 AM SNOW 1 SE THAYNE 42.90N 110.98W
11/15/2010 M5.50 INCHES LINCOLN WY PUBLIC

1015 AM SNOW 19 SW BONDURANT 42.96N 110.61W
11/15/2010 E4.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY MESONET

BLIND BULL SUMMIT SNOTEL

1015 AM HEAVY SNOW 8 SE AFTON 42.65N 110.81W
11/15/2010 E13.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY MESONET

COTTONWOOD CREEK SNOTEL

1015 AM HEAVY SNOW 26 N KEMMERER 42.15N 110.68W
11/15/2010 E7.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY MESONET

HAMS FORK SNOTEL

1015 AM HEAVY SNOW 36 N KEMMERER 42.30N 110.68W
11/15/2010 E12.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY MESONET

INDIAN CREEK SNOTEL

1016 AM SNOW 15 NNE COKEVILLE 42.27N 110.81W
11/15/2010 E5.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY MESONET

KELLEY RANGER STATION SNOTEL

1016 AM SNOW 15 S AFTON 42.51N 110.91W
11/15/2010 E4.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY MESONET

SALT RIVER SUMMIT SNOTEL

1016 AM HEAVY SNOW 21 W BIG PINEY 42.49N 110.53W
11/15/2010 E7.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET

SNIDER BASIN SNOTEL

1016 AM HEAVY SNOW 19 SE AFTON 42.53N 110.66W
11/15/2010 E10.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY MESONET

SPRING CREEK DIVIDE SNOTEL

1016 AM HEAVY SNOW 17 E AFTON 42.76N 110.59W
11/15/2010 E9.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET

TRIPLE PEAK SNOTEL

1016 AM HEAVY SNOW 8 NE AFTON 42.82N 110.84W
11/15/2010 E12.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY MESONET

WILLOW CREEK SNOTEL

1017 AM HEAVY SNOW 1 WSW CANYON 44.72N 110.51W
11/15/2010 E6.00 INCHES YELLOWSTONE WY MESONET

CANYON SNOTEL

1017 AM HEAVY SNOW 16 N PAHASKA 44.73N 109.91W
11/15/2010 E8.00 INCHES YELLOWSTONE WY MESONET

PARKER PEAK SNOTEL

1017 AM SNOW 10 W PAHASKA 44.48N 110.16W
11/15/2010 E4.00 INCHES YELLOWSTONE WY MESONET

SYLVAN LAKE SNOTEL

1017 AM SNOW 4 WSW PAHASKA 44.48N 110.04W
11/15/2010 E4.00 INCHES YELLOWSTONE WY MESONET

SYLVAN ROAD SNOTEL

1017 AM SNOW 14 ESE OLD FAITHFUL 44.37N 110.58W
11/15/2010 E1.00 INCHES YELLOWSTONE WY MESONET

THUMB DIVIDE SNOTEL

1018 AM SNOW 25 NE MORAN JUNCTION 44.15N 110.22W
11/15/2010 E4.00 INCHES YELLOWSTONE WY MESONET

TWO OCEAN PLATEAU SNOTEL

1018 AM SNOW 21 W CLARK 44.94N 109.57W
11/15/2010 E5.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET

BEARTOOTH LAKE SNOTEL

1018 AM SNOW 14 NE PAHASKA 44.65N 109.78W
11/15/2010 E4.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET

EVENING STAR SNOTEL

1018 AM SNOW 26 WSW CLARK 44.80N 109.66W
11/15/2010 E3.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET

WOLVERINE SNOTEL

1019 AM HEAVY SNOW 28 E LOVELL 44.80N 107.84W
11/15/2010 E8.00 INCHES BIG HORN WY MESONET

BALD MOUNTAIN SNOTEL

1019 AM SNOW 14 NE SHELL 44.68N 107.58W
11/15/2010 E5.00 INCHES BIG HORN WY MESONET

BONE SPRINGS DIVIDE SNOTEL

1019 AM SNOW 13 W BARNUM 43.63N 107.18W
11/15/2010 E5.00 INCHES WASHAKIE WY MESONET

MIDDLE POWDER SNOTEL

1021 AM SNOW 24 SW BUFFALO 44.16N 107.13W
11/15/2010 E3.00 INCHES WASHAKIE WY MESONET

POWDER RIVER PASS SNOTEL

1021 AM SNOW 18 E SHELL 44.50N 107.43W
11/15/2010 E5.00 INCHES BIG HORN WY MESONET

SHELL CREEK SNOTEL

1022 AM SNOW 14 WNW MAYOWORTH 43.89N 107.06W
11/15/2010 E1.00 INCHES JOHNSON WY MESONET

BEAR TRAP MEADOW SNOTEL

1022 AM SNOW 17 W BUFFALO 44.40N 107.06W
11/15/2010 E3.00 INCHES JOHNSON WY MESONET

CLOUD PEAK RESERVOIR SNOTEL

1022 AM SNOW 21 SW BARNUM 43.47N 107.24W
11/15/2010 E2.00 INCHES NATRONA WY MESONET

GRAVE SPRING SNOTEL

1022 AM SNOW 8 NNE MORAN JUNCTION 43.95N 110.45W
11/15/2010 E2.00 INCHES TETON WY MESONET

BASE CAMP SNOTEL

1022 AM HEAVY SNOW 6 ENE ALTA 43.78N 110.93W
11/15/2010 E9.00 INCHES TETON WY MESONET

GRAND TARGHEE SNOTEL

1023 AM SNOW 10 N BONDURANT 43.34N 110.43W
11/15/2010 E1.00 INCHES TETON WY MESONET

GRANITE CREEK SNOTEL

1023 AM HEAVY SNOW 8 W SOUTH ENTRANCE 44.13N 110.83W
11/15/2010 E8.00 INCHES TETON WY MESONET

GRASSY LAKE SNOTEL

1024 AM SNOW 20 NE BONDURANT 43.39N 110.13W
11/15/2010 E3.00 INCHES TETON WY MESONET

GROS VENTRE SUMMIT SNOTEL

1025 AM HEAVY SNOW 8 WNW JACKSON 43.52N 110.91W
11/15/2010 E10.00 INCHES TETON WY MESONET

PHILLIPS BENCH SNOTEL

1026 AM SNOW SOUTH ENTRANCE 44.13N 110.67W
11/15/2010 E4.00 INCHES TETON WY MESONET

SNAKE RIVER STN SNOTEL

1027 AM HEAVY SNOW 25 MW DUBOIS 43.75N 110.06W
11/15/2010 E7.00 INCHES TETON WY MESONET

TOGWOTEE PASS SNOTEL

1028 AM SNOW 2 NW AFTON 42.73N 110.95W
11/15/2010 M3.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1032 AM SNOW KEMMERER 41.79N 110.54W
11/15/2010 M3.50 INCHES LINCOLN WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1033 AM SNOW POWELL 44.75N 108.76W
11/15/2010 M5.00 INCHES PARK WY PUBLIC

1034 AM SNOW LYSITE 43.26N 107.69W
11/15/2010 M3.00 INCHES FREMONT WY PUBLIC

1038 AM HEAVY SNOW 5 SSE SMOOT 42.55N 110.88W
11/15/2010 M9.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1038 AM SNOW 4 ENE POWELL 44.78N 108.68W
11/15/2010 M5.00 INCHES PARK WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1038 AM SNOW 2 SSW LOVELL 44.80N 108.41W
11/15/2010 M4.10 INCHES BIG HORN WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1039 AM SNOW 1 W POWELL 44.75N 108.77W
11/15/2010 M4.00 INCHES PARK WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1039 AM SNOW 2 SW POWELL 44.74N 108.78W
11/15/2010 M4.00 INCHES PARK WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1040 AM SNOW 4 SW POWELL 44.71N 108.82W
11/15/2010 M3.80 INCHES PARK WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1040 AM SNOW 2 SE EMBLEM 44.49N 108.36W
11/15/2010 M3.60 INCHES BIG HORN WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1041 AM SNOW MOOSE 43.65N 110.71W
11/15/2010 M2.00 INCHES TETON WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1043 AM SNOW 5 NNW TEN SLEEP 44.10N 107.45W
11/15/2010 M1.40 INCHES WASHAKIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1043 AM SNOW GREYBULL 44.48N 108.05W
11/15/2010 M1.20 INCHES BIG HORN WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1044 AM SNOW 1 WSW CASPER 42.82N 106.34W
11/15/2010 M1.00 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1045 AM SNOW 1 WSW BUFFALO 44.34N 106.72W
11/15/2010 M1.50 INCHES JOHNSON WY BROADCAST MEDIA

1141 AM SNOW GREYBULL 44.49N 108.05W
11/15/2010 M2.70 INCHES BIG HORN WY CO-OP OBSERVER

1141 AM SNOW PAHASKA 44.50N 109.96W
11/15/2010 M4.00 INCHES PARK WY CO-OP OBSERVER

1142 AM SNOW 16 SSE TEN SLEEP 43.81N 107.36W
11/15/2010 M1.00 INCHES WASHAKIE WY CO-OP OBSERVER

1143 AM SNOW 9 NE THERMOPOLIS 43.75N 108.14W
11/15/2010 M2.40 INCHES HOT SPRINGS WY CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2045

ACUS11 KWNS 151830
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151830
FLZ000-ALZ000-151930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2045
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CST MON NOV 15 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL AND WRN FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 151830Z - 151930Z

...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...WITH BRIEF TORNADOES...MAY OCCUR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS NEAR THE SRN AL/FL PANHANDLE REGION AND A TORNADO WATCH
ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.

WV IMAGERY INDICATES SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING NEWD THROUGH NRN
MS...AND APPEARED TO BE PROVIDING LIFT FOR CONVECTION FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL AL SWWD INTO FAR SERN LA. THOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAK...
MUCAPES BETWEEN 250-500 J/KG...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 40-50 KT IS
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION...LOW LEVEL
VEERING WIND PROFILES WERE RESULTING IN 1 KM SHEAR AT 20-30 KT.
GIVEN THE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SURFACE... THE
POTENTIAL FOR LONG LIVED TORNADOES APPEARS LOW. HOWEVER... THE
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR COMBINED WITH ENHANCED SHEAR NEAR A STATIONARY
FRONT...LOCATED NEAR THE AL/FL PANHANDLE BORDER...MAY SUPPORT A
SUSTAINED SUPERCELL OR TWO WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST BRIEF
TORNADOES. THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WATCH AND DEPENDS ON
EVOLUTION OF THE STORMS DURING THE NEXT HOUR. WHATEVER THREAT
DEVELOPS...SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE 21-00Z TIME FRAME AS THE MS UPPER
VORT MAX LIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM THE AREA AND...AND THE STORM FOCUS
SHIFTS FURTHER WEST WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

..IMY.. 11/15/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON 30398588 30458668 30798774 31238759 31398676 31308606
31278525 30808502 30398588

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KBOU [151828]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KBOU 151828
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1128 AM MST MON NOV 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1027 AM SNOW 8 SE WATKINS 39.67N 104.49W
11/15/2010 M2.4 INCH ARAPAHOE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0900 AM SNOW 12 SSE AURORA 39.54N 104.73W
11/15/2010 M1.8 INCH DOUGLAS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0800 AM SNOW 8 ESE LONGMONT 40.13N 104.97W
11/15/2010 M1.0 INCH WELD CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0751 AM HEAVY SNOW ST MARYS GLACIER 39.84N 105.65W
11/15/2010 M6.0 INCH CLEAR CREEK CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0751 AM SNOW 2 N LONGMONT 40.20N 105.11W
11/15/2010 M0.3 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0730 AM SNOW 3 SE BRECKENRIDGE 39.48N 106.01W
11/15/2010 M4.4 INCH SUMMIT CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0730 AM SNOW 1 NW NEDERLAND 39.97N 105.52W
11/15/2010 M1.2 INCH BOULDER CO AMATEUR RADIO

0700 AM HEAVY SNOW 10 NW KREMMLING 40.16N 106.51W
11/15/2010 M6.5 INCH GRAND CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM SNOW 9 NW GREELEY 40.51N 104.87W
11/15/2010 M1.5 INCH WELD CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM SNOW 3 E FORT COLLINS 40.56N 105.01W
11/15/2010 M2.8 INCH LARIMER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM SNOW 4 NNE TIMNATH 40.58N 104.95W
11/15/2010 M2.9 INCH LARIMER CO AMATEUR RADIO

0700 AM SNOW 3 SW WINDSOR 40.45N 104.95W
11/15/2010 M1.3 INCH LARIMER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM SNOW 1 SW SEVERANCE 40.51N 104.86W
11/15/2010 M1.6 INCH WELD CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM SNOW 2 W TABERNASH 39.98N 105.89W
11/15/2010 M3.0 INCH GRAND CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM SNOW 4 WSW EATON 40.50N 104.78W
11/15/2010 M1.0 INCH WELD CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0537 AM SNOW 5 E KEYSTONE 39.61N 105.87W
11/15/2010 M7.0 INCH SUMMIT CO MESONET

A-BASIN 24 HOUR TOTAL RELAYED BY COLORADO AVALANCHE
INFORMATION CENTER

&&

$$

FREDIN

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KGJT [151818]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 151818
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1118 AM MST MON NOV 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1116 AM SNOW TELLURIDE 37.94N 107.81W
11/15/2010 E4.0 INCH SAN MIGUEL CO TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR SNOWFALL SO FAR. SNOWING LIGHTLY BUT STEADILY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1000720

$$

MALEKSA

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 151723
SWODY2
SPC AC 151721

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CST MON NOV 15 2010

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE ERN GULF
COASTAL AREA...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SRN PLAINS TODAY WILL EJECT ENE
ACROSS THE ERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY ON TUESDAY AS ADDITIONAL JET
ENERGY DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL DEVELOP NWD FROM NWRN AL INTO OHIO BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT ADVANCES SEWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND SERN SEABOARD
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

...ERN GULF COAST AND SERN STATES...
PLUME OF 1-1.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE TRANSPORTED NWD
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT FROM THE ERN GULF COAST NWD
TO ERN VA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY MOIST-ADIABATIC THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH
STRONGEST THERMAL BUOYANCY LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO THE ERN GULF
COASTAL REGION. DESPITE LOW CAPE POTENTIAL...THE EJECTING IMPULSE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSTANTIAL MID/UPPER-FLOW.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE ENE INTO THE ERN GULF REGION
THROUGH MID-DAY AMIDST 50 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. WHILE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
WILL RELAX BY MID-DAY...THERE WILL BE RISKS FOR SUPERCELLS WITH
ISOLATED TORNADOES IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG
WITH DAMAGING WIND THREATS.

LATER IN THE DAY...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO LOCATIONS FARTHER NE AS
THE UPPER SYSTEM BECOMES NEGATIVELY-TILTED AND AXIS OF THE 50 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET TRANSLATES INTO THE CAROLINAS. NRN EDGE OF MORNING
STORMS MAY INCREASE IN INTENSITY WITH ADDITIONAL WARM-SECTOR STORMS
FORMING LATER IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS/PIEDMONT OF
NC/SC/GA. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR...THREATS FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
ORGANIZED STORMS /MIX OF LINEAR AND DISCRETE/ WILL EXIST THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS...THE FIVE PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE
BEEN SUBSTANTIALLY EXPANDED TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE SERN ATLANTIC
STATES.

..RACY.. 11/15/2010

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KBOU [151703]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KBOU 151703
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1003 AM MST MON NOV 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM SNOW 12 SSE AURORA 39.54N 104.73W
11/15/2010 M1.8 INCH DOUGLAS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0800 AM SNOW 8 ESE LONGMONT 40.13N 104.97W
11/15/2010 M1.0 INCH WELD CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0751 AM HEAVY SNOW ST MARYS GLACIER 39.84N 105.65W
11/15/2010 M6.0 INCH CLEAR CREEK CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0751 AM SNOW 2 N LONGMONT 40.20N 105.11W
11/15/2010 M0.3 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0730 AM SNOW 3 SE BRECKENRIDGE 39.48N 106.01W
11/15/2010 M4.4 INCH SUMMIT CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM SNOW 3 E FORT COLLINS 40.56N 105.01W
11/15/2010 M2.8 INCH LARIMER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM SNOW 4 NNE TIMNATH 40.58N 104.95W
11/15/2010 M2.9 INCH LARIMER CO AMATEUR RADIO

0700 AM SNOW 9 NW GREELEY 40.51N 104.87W
11/15/2010 M1.5 INCH WELD CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM SNOW 3 SW WINDSOR 40.45N 104.95W
11/15/2010 M1.3 INCH LARIMER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM SNOW 1 SW SEVERANCE 40.51N 104.86W
11/15/2010 M1.6 INCH WELD CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM SNOW 2 W TABERNASH 39.98N 105.89W
11/15/2010 M3.0 INCH GRAND CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM SNOW 4 WSW EATON 40.50N 104.78W
11/15/2010 M1.0 INCH WELD CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM HEAVY SNOW 10 NW KREMMLING 40.16N 106.51W
11/15/2010 M6.5 INCH GRAND CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0537 AM SNOW 5 E KEYSTONE 39.61N 105.87W
11/15/2010 M7.0 INCH SUMMIT CO MESONET

A-BASIN 24 HOUR TOTAL RELAYED BY COLORADO AVALANCHE
INFORMATION CENTER

&&

$$

FREDIN

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KGJT [151701]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 151701
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1000 AM MST MON NOV 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 AM HEAVY SNOW 10 WNW CRESTED BUTTE 38.93N 107.15W
11/15/2010 M10.0 INCH GUNNISON CO AVALANCHE FCSTR

LOCATION IS IRWIN LODGE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1000719

$$

PRINGLE

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KGJT [151640]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 151640
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
940 AM MST MON NOV 15 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0938 AM SNOW 4 N NEW CASTLE 39.64N 107.53W
11/15/2010 M9.0 INCH GARFIELD CO TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOWFALL SO FAR SINCE LAST NIGHT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1000718

$$

MALEKSA

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 151607
SWODY1
SPC AC 151605

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1005 AM CST MON NOV 15 2010

VALID 151630Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
GULF COAST STATES...

...CENTRAL GULF COAST...
DEEPENING TROUGH SRN PLAINS SUPPORTED BY VERY STRONG NLY JET MAX
CURRENTLY ID/UT INTO AZ. WITH THE UPSTREAM VIGOROUS TROUGH MOVING
INTO PAC NW TONIGHT...THE PLAINS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE
LWR MS VALLEY WITH RESULTANT VERY FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES IN SUPPORT OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION INCLUDING SUPERCELL
POTENTIAL.

A LEAD S/WV TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG WSWLY FLOW IN CONCERT WITH
STEADY INCREASE IN GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED FROM SRN GA/AL TO SERN LA HAS GENERATED CONSIDERABLE
OVERNIGHT NON-SEVERE CONVECTION.

AS THE SRN PLAINS TROUGH APPROACHES MODELS DEVELOP A WAVE ON THE
STALLED FRONTAL ZONE OVER SRN MS TONIGHT. INCREASING LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WITH TROUGH SPREADS ACROSS LWR MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT WITH
SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN NEWD INTO AL BY 12Z TUE AS
STRONG JET MAX ROTATES EWD ALONG CENTRAL GULF COAST.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS WITH PASSAGE OF FIRST
IMPULSE CONFINING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
INCLUDING BRIEF SUPERCELLS NEAR THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM SERN LA TO
SRN AL. AIR MASS INITIALLY CONTAINS MINIMAL INSTABILITY GIVEN THE
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STILL ARRIVING GULF MOISTURE.

HOWEVER SOME DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH STEADY GULF MOISTURE
INFLOW WILL LEAD TO MLCAPES TO 500 J/KG SERN LA/SRN MS/SWRN AL THIS
AFTERNOON.

OVERNIGHT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM MS INTO AL WILL
ALLOW MOIST WARM SECTOR TO SPREAD FURTHER INLAND ACROSS SRN AL/FL
PANHANDLE. AT THE SAME TIME THE SHEAR PROFILES WILL INTENSIFY
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS/ISOLATED
TORNADOES. KINEMATICS OVERNIGHT...IE SHEAR AND SYNOPTIC SCALE
ASCENT...WILL BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS HOWEVER
INSTABILITY STILL EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED WITH MLCAPES GENERALLY AOB
500 J/KG. INSTABILITY WILL BE A LITTLE GREATER NEAR THE IMMEDIATE
GULF COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE MID/UPR 60S.

HAVE EXTENDED THE RISK 0F SUPERCELLS/ISOLATED TORNADOES EWD ACROSS
SERN AL AND FL PANHANDLE FOR TONIGHT AS SUFFICIENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AFTER 06Z.

..HALES/STOPPKOTTE.. 11/15/2010

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 150533
SWODY2
SPC AC 150532

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 PM CST SUN NOV 14 2010

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN AL/SW GA/FL PANHANDLE...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE EWD
INTO THE MS VALLEY TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A 30 TO 40 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG THE COASTS OF MS...AL AND THE
FL PANHANDLE AT DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY WHERE THE MODELS FORECAST A
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE GRADUALLY EWD AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH THE SRN END OF
THE COMPLEX HAVING ACCESS TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S F AND PERHAPS MODERATE INSTABILITY. THIS THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 30 KT EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SHOULD SUPPORT
STORM ROTATION. A MARGINAL TORNADO AND/OR WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD
EXIST TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM SE AL AND SW GA SWD TO THE
COAST OF THE FL PANHANDLE WHERE THE MODELS SUGGEST THE COMBINATION
OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS LIKELY TO BE MAXIMIZED.

..BROYLES.. 11/15/2010

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KMPX [150521]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 150521
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1120 PM CST SUN NOV 14 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW WACONIA 44.85N 93.79W
11/14/2010 M9.1 INCH CARVER MN NWS EMPLOYEE

TWO DAY TOTAL.

&&

$$

MTF

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