SWODY1
SPC AC 151605
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1005 AM CST MON NOV 15 2010
VALID 151630Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
GULF COAST STATES...
...CENTRAL GULF COAST...
DEEPENING TROUGH SRN PLAINS SUPPORTED BY VERY STRONG NLY JET MAX
CURRENTLY ID/UT INTO AZ. WITH THE UPSTREAM VIGOROUS TROUGH MOVING
INTO PAC NW TONIGHT...THE PLAINS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE
LWR MS VALLEY WITH RESULTANT VERY FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES IN SUPPORT OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION INCLUDING SUPERCELL
POTENTIAL.
A LEAD S/WV TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG WSWLY FLOW IN CONCERT WITH
STEADY INCREASE IN GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED FROM SRN GA/AL TO SERN LA HAS GENERATED CONSIDERABLE
OVERNIGHT NON-SEVERE CONVECTION.
AS THE SRN PLAINS TROUGH APPROACHES MODELS DEVELOP A WAVE ON THE
STALLED FRONTAL ZONE OVER SRN MS TONIGHT. INCREASING LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WITH TROUGH SPREADS ACROSS LWR MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT WITH
SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN NEWD INTO AL BY 12Z TUE AS
STRONG JET MAX ROTATES EWD ALONG CENTRAL GULF COAST.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS WITH PASSAGE OF FIRST
IMPULSE CONFINING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
INCLUDING BRIEF SUPERCELLS NEAR THE STALLED BOUNDARY FROM SERN LA TO
SRN AL. AIR MASS INITIALLY CONTAINS MINIMAL INSTABILITY GIVEN THE
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STILL ARRIVING GULF MOISTURE.
HOWEVER SOME DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH STEADY GULF MOISTURE
INFLOW WILL LEAD TO MLCAPES TO 500 J/KG SERN LA/SRN MS/SWRN AL THIS
AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM MS INTO AL WILL
ALLOW MOIST WARM SECTOR TO SPREAD FURTHER INLAND ACROSS SRN AL/FL
PANHANDLE. AT THE SAME TIME THE SHEAR PROFILES WILL INTENSIFY
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS/ISOLATED
TORNADOES. KINEMATICS OVERNIGHT...IE SHEAR AND SYNOPTIC SCALE
ASCENT...WILL BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS HOWEVER
INSTABILITY STILL EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED WITH MLCAPES GENERALLY AOB
500 J/KG. INSTABILITY WILL BE A LITTLE GREATER NEAR THE IMMEDIATE
GULF COAST WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE MID/UPR 60S.
HAVE EXTENDED THE RISK 0F SUPERCELLS/ISOLATED TORNADOES EWD ACROSS
SERN AL AND FL PANHANDLE FOR TONIGHT AS SUFFICIENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AFTER 06Z.
..HALES/STOPPKOTTE.. 11/15/2010
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