Saturday, May 11, 2013

KOKX [112144]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KOKX 112144
LSROKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
544 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0336 PM TSTM WND DMG SOUTH ORANGE 40.75N 74.26W
05/11/2013 ESSEX NJ PUBLIC

MULTIPLE TREES REPORTED DOWN ACROSS SOUTH ORANGE. TIME
ESTIMATED BY RADAR.


&&

$$

DS

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KDTX [112143]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDTX 112143
LSRDTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
542 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0514 PM NON-TSTM WND GST CARO 43.49N 83.40W
05/11/2013 M44.00 MPH TUSCOLA MI AWOS

MEASURED AT CFS AIRPORT.

0521 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SAGINAW 43.42N 83.95W
05/11/2013 M44.00 MPH SAGINAW MI ASOS

MEASURED AT MBS AIRPORT.


&&

$$

MOSTEIKO

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KOKX [112142]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KOKX 112142
LSROKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
541 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0340 PM TSTM WND DMG ORANGE 40.77N 74.24W
05/11/2013 ESSEX NJ AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON MAIN STREET BETWEEN OAKWOOD AND GLENWOOD
AVENUES.

0340 PM TSTM WND DMG KEARNY 40.75N 74.12W
05/11/2013 HUDSON NJ SKYWARN SPOTTER

WIRES AND LARGE TREE BRANCH DOWN ON WASHINGTON PLACE.
TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

0340 PM LIGHTNING RINGWOOD 41.11N 74.27W
05/11/2013 PASSAIC NJ SKYWARN SPOTTER

LIGHTNING STRIKE TO A CHIMNEY ON FINCH ROAD. CONFIRMED
BY FIRE DEPARTMENT.

0343 PM TSTM WND DMG NUTLEY 40.82N 74.16W
05/11/2013 ESSEX NJ SKYWARN SPOTTER

TREES DOWN ON EDGEWOOD AVENUE.

0404 PM TSTM WND DMG BATTERY PARK CITY 40.71N 74.02W
05/11/2013 NEW YORK NY EMERGENCY MNGR

3 TO 5 TREES REPORTED DOWN ON SOUTH END AVENUE.

0407 PM FLASH FLOOD RUTHERFORD 40.82N 74.11W
05/11/2013 BERGEN NJ LAW ENFORCEMENT

HACKENSACK STREET WAS CLOSED NEAR ROUTE 17 OFF RAMPS
DUE TO FLASH FLOODING. SEVERAL MOTORISTS WERE STRANDED.


&&

$$

DS

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KBOU [112139]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOU 112139
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
339 PM MDT SAT MAY 11 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0335 PM HAIL 2 ENE GREELEY 40.43N 104.72W
05/11/2013 M1.00 INCH WELD CO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

JKALINA

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KAKQ [112138]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 112138
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
538 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0517 PM HAIL GREEN BAY 37.13N 78.31W
05/11/2013 E1.00 INCH PRINCE EDWARD VA PUBLIC

QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS


&&

EVENT NUMBER AKQ1300525

$$

LALEXAND

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KAKQ [112137]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 112137
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
537 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 PM TSTM WND DMG GREEN BAY 37.13N 78.31W
05/11/2013 PRINCE EDWARD VA PUBLIC

DAMAGED SHED...BLEW OFF 300 POUND DOG PEN ROOF...NICKEL
SIZE HAIL


&&

EVENT NUMBER AKQ1300524

$$

LALEXAND

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KMLB [112136]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMLB 112136
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
536 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0455 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 SSE COCOA 28.33N 80.74W
05/11/2013 BREVARD FL EMERGENCY MNGR

REPORTED DAMAGE TO 2 MOBILE HOME CAR PORTS AND 1 PORCH.


&&

$$

ARB

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KAKQ [112133]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 112133
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
533 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0508 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 SE GREEN BAY 37.11N 78.28W
05/11/2013 PRINCE EDWARD VA 911 CALL CENTER

TREE DOWN ACROSS ROAD DUE TO STRONG WINDS


&&

EVENT NUMBER AKQ1300523

$$

LALEXAND

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KAPX [112132]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 112132
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
532 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0528 PM SNOW 9 SSW GAYLORD 44.91N 84.74W
05/11/2013 M0.8 INCH OTSEGO MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

3 HOUR TOTAL THRU 530 PM. MEASURED ON VEHICLES AT NWS
OFFICE...GRASSY AREAS HAVE A THIN SLUSHY
COATING...PAVEMENT JUST WET.


&&

$$

JZ

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KMLB [112115]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMLB 112115
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
515 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0505 PM TSTM WND GST 3 WNW CAPE CANAVERAL 28.41N 80.65W
05/11/2013 M62 MPH AMZ552 FL OTHER FEDERAL

USAF 54 FT TOWER NUMBER 300 MEASURED A 54 KT/62 MPH WIND
GUST.


&&

$$

ARB

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KLWX [112110]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 112110
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
510 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0424 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 2 SSW TOWSON 39.37N 76.63W
05/11/2013 BALTIMORE CITY MD TRAINED SPOTTER

FUNNEL CLOUD SIGHTED NEAR ROLAND PARK


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1300164

$$

LEE

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KJAX [112100]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KJAX 112100
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
500 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 PM TSTM WND GST 4 E GREEN COVE SPRINGS 29.99N 81.62W
05/11/2013 M41.00 MPH ST. JOHNS FL PUBLIC

BOATER REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 41 MPH NEAR THE
FL-16/SHANDS BRIDGE.


&&

$$

SCHASE

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KMLB [112100]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMLB 112100
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
459 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0450 PM TSTM WND GST 3 SSE COCOA 28.34N 80.73W
05/11/2013 M62.00 MPH BREVARD FL OTHER FEDERAL

USAF 54 FT WIND TOWER NUMBER 9404 MEASURED A 54 KT/62 MPH
WIND GUST


&&

$$

ARB

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KLWX [112059]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 112059
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
459 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0448 PM HAIL 1 NNE BEL AIR 39.55N 76.34W
05/11/2013 E0.75 INCH HARFORD MD PUBLIC


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX1300163

$$

MEADOWS

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KOKX [112058]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KOKX 112058
LSROKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
458 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0404 PM TSTM WND DMG BATTERY PARK CITY 40.71N 74.02W
05/11/2013 NEW YORK NY EMERGENCY MNGR

3 TO 5 TREES REPORTED DOWN ON SOUTH END AVENUE.


&&

$$

DS

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KJAX [112058]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 112058
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
458 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 PM TSTM WND GST 4 E GREEN COVE SPRINGS 29.99N 81.62W
05/11/2013 M41 MPH ST. JOHNS FL PUBLIC

BOATER REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 41 KNOTS NEAR THE
FL-16/SHANDS BRIDGE.


&&

$$

SCHASE

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KMLB [112057]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMLB 112057
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
457 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 PM HAIL 5 SSE COCOA 28.31N 80.73W
05/11/2013 E0.88 INCH BREVARD FL TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER IN ROCKLEDGE REPORTED AT LEAST NICKEL-SIZED HAIL.



&&

$$

ARB

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KMLB [112045]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMLB 112045
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
445 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0440 PM HAIL 2 S ROCKLEDGE 28.29N 80.73W
05/11/2013 E0.70 INCH BREVARD FL PUBLIC

HALF-INCH HAIL AND 45-50 MPH WINDS REPORTED.


&&

$$

ARB

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KOKX [112035]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KOKX 112035
LSROKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
435 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0340 PM LIGHTNING RINGWOOD 41.11N 74.27W
05/11/2013 PASSAIC NJ SKYWARN SPOTTER

LIGHTNING STRIKE TO A CHIMNEY ON FINCH ROAD. CONFIRMED
BY FIRE DEPARTMENT.


&&

$$

DS

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KIWX [112032]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 112032
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
432 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0412 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 SE GOSHEN 41.53N 85.79W
05/11/2013 M46 MPH ELKHART IN ASOS


&&

$$

BENTLEY

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KCYS [112031]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 112031
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
231 PM MDT SAT MAY 11 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0230 PM HAIL 2 E CHEYENNE 41.15N 104.75W
05/11/2013 E0.50 INCH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

THE HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED BY TWO SPOTTERS.


&&

$$

BCHAPMAN

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KCYS [112023]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 112023
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
223 PM MDT SAT MAY 11 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0222 PM HAIL 5 NE CHEYENNE 41.20N 104.72W
05/11/2013 E0.25 INCH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

BCHAPMAN

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KOKX [112021]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KOKX 112021
LSROKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
421 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0343 PM TSTM WND DMG NUTLEY 40.82N 74.16W
05/11/2013 ESSEX NJ SKYWARN SPOTTER

TREES DOWN ON EDGEWOOD AVENUE.


&&

$$

DS

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KOKX [112019]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KOKX 112019
LSROKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
419 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0340 PM TSTM WND DMG KEARNY 40.75N 74.12W
05/11/2013 HUDSON NJ SKYWARN SPOTTER

WIRES AND LARGE TREE BRANCH DOWN ON WASHINGTON PLACE.
TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.


&&

$$

DS

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KIWX [112007]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 112007
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
407 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0238 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NNE BENTON HARBOR 42.13N 86.42W
05/11/2013 M51 MPH BERRIEN MI ASOS


&&

$$

BENTLEY

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KGRR [112006]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 112006
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
406 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0210 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 S GRAND HAVEN 43.00N 86.23W
05/11/2013 M45 MPH OTTAWA MI MESONET

WILDERNESS BEACH MESONET SITE


&&

$$

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 112002
SWODY1
SPC AC 112000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

VALID 112000Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES...

...MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES...
PRIMARY SHORT-TERM CONCERN IS FOR SEVERE WIND/HAIL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE COASTAL NORTHEAST INCLUDING PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST NY/NYC
METRO AND NJ....WITH SOME CHANGES TO EXISTING SLIGHT RISK IN NYC
VICINITY FOR ONGOING STORMS. SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 633 FOR MORE
DETAILS ON THE SHORT-TERM SCENARIO. OTHER SEVERE TSTMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE...AND LIKELY TO YET INCREASE...ACROSS ADDITIONAL PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC/DELMARVA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

...SOUTH TX...
TSTMS MAY STILL DEVELOP/MOVE INTO FAR SOUTH TX LATER TODAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE/NEED FOR A SLIGHT RISK AT 20Z IS STILL LIMITED BASED ON
LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE/OBSERVATIONS. SEE PRIOR DISCUSSION BELOW
REGARDING SOUTH TX.

...ELSEWHERE...
OTHERWISE...NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES TO PRIOR FORECAST
REASONING...WITH LITTLE/IF ANY CHANGES TO EXISTING GENERAL
TSTM/SEVERE PROBABILITIES. SEE PRIOR OUTLOOK DISCUSSION BELOW.

..GUYER.. 05/11/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013/

...MID ATLANTIC...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN SRN QUEBEC WILL TRACK TOWARD THE MOUTH OF
THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST AND
OFF MOST OF THE ERN SEABOARD THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SCATTERED SEVERE TSTMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LIFT ALONG THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY ACTS ON
POCKETS OF MODEST BUOYANCY FROM NC NWD ACROSS THE DELMARVA TO
NJ/SERN NY. FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
CORRIDOR ARE CHARACTERIZED BY GENERALLY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LIMITED INHIBITION TO CONTRIBUTE TO
SUSTAINED STORMS. ACTIVITY MAY CONGEAL INTO A BROKEN LOW-TOPPED
SQUALL LINE WITH STRONGER CORES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BOTH SMALL HAIL
AND LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LATEST 12Z 4KM WRF-NMM
AND WRF-ARW MODELS FORECAST THE STRONGEST CONVECTION TO SPREAD EAST
FROM ERN PA ACROSS NJ SOUTHWARD TO NRN VA AND MD ERN SHORE IN THE
18-21Z TIME FRAME.

...FL...
STRONG HEATING AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AREAS OF
STRONG DESTABILIZATION BENEATH DIFLUENT AND MODEST MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD SUPPORT ROBUST STORMS DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PRIMARILY FROM CNTRL INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE
PENINSULA. EFFECTIVE SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 25-30KT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
LOOSELY ORGANIZED MULTICELLULAR STORMS WITH LOCALIZED HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.

...SOUTH TX...
POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NRN MEXICO WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN RENEWED DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH/WEST
OF THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION
MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCED LATER TODAY AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO
EJECT FROM THE LOW LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH/LOW OVER NCNTRL
MEXICO. STRONG SRN STREAM UPPER FLOW PERSISTS AROUND THE ERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DISTURBANCE IN MEXICO AND WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT
DEEP SHEAR ACROSS SRN TX SO THAT ANY CONVECTION MOVING EAST WOULD
REMAIN ORGANIZED. SOME SIGNALS IN LATEST STORM SCALE GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL MCS SPREADING EAST ACROSS SOUTH
TX LATER THIS EVENING BUT MODEL CONSISTENCY IN THIS SCENARIO REMAINS
LIMITED. FURTHER REVIEW MAY SUPPORT THE INTRODUCTION OF A SMALL SLGT
RISK AREA WITH HIGHER HAIL/WIND PROBABILITIES IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS
LATER TODAY.

...HIGH PLAINS...
UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRONG HEATING BEHIND FRONTAL SURGE SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME TSTM DEVELOPMENT WHERE LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER COULD SUPPORT A LOW PROBABILITY AND MARGINAL HAIL/WIND THREAT
LATER TODAY FROM SERN WY INTO NERN CO.

...NERN OK ACROSS THE OZARKS...
LIFT ALONG ADVANCING POLAR FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG HEATING
AND POCKETS OF GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME SMALL/MARGINAL HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

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KMHX [112002]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KMHX 112002
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
402 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0155 PM TSTM WND DMG PONZER 35.59N 76.49W
05/11/2013 HYDE NC SPOTTER

A TREE DOWN ACROSS RIVERSIDE CAMPGROUND ROAD...A
QUARTER MILE S OF PONZER


&&

CORRECTED COUNTY/STATE...LOCATION

EVENT NUMBER MHX1300113

$$

MELENDEZ

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KOKX [112000]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KOKX 112000
LSROKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
359 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0340 PM TSTM WND DMG ORANGE 40.77N 74.24W
05/11/2013 ESSEX NJ AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON MAIN STREET BETWEEN OAKWOOD AND GLENWOOD
AVENUES.


&&

$$

DS

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KGRR [111958]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 111958
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
358 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SW GRAND HAVEN 43.05N 86.24W
05/11/2013 M44 MPH OTTAWA MI MESONET

SURF GRAND HAVEN STATION


&&

$$

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0633

ACUS11 KWNS 111953
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111953
NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-112100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0633
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 111953Z - 112100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SMALL-SCALE BUT INTENSE BOW ECHO CROSSING MANHATTAN AT
TIME. LOCAL WIND GUSTS OF 40-50KT AND TORRENTIAL RAIN/SMALL HAIL
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE METROPOLITAN AREA IN THE NEXT HALF HOUR.
IMPACTED AREA REMAINS TOO LOCALIZED FOR SVR WATCH AND EXPECT
CONVECTION TO WEAKEN AS IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER MORE
STABLE MARITIME AIRMASS.

DISCUSSION...INTENSE BOWING CONVECTION HAS FORMED A BOW AND BOW-HEAD
COMMA JUST WEST OF MANHATTAN IN THE LAST 20-30 MINUTES AND WILL MOVE
EAST INTO WRN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND WRN LONG ISLAND. AREAL THREAT OF
SEVERE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TOO ISOLATED FOR A WATCH...ESPECIALLY AS
STORMS BEGIN TO INGEST MORE STABLE MARITIME AIRMASS OFF THE COOLER
ATLANTIC WATERS.

..CARBIN.. 05/11/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...

LAT...LON 40847428 41037397 41087362 41037336 40907314 40717305
40537333 40437388 40667419 40847428

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KGRR [111949]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 111949
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
349 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0230 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 NNW PORT SHELDON 42.97N 86.22W
05/11/2013 M45 MPH OTTAWA MI MESONET

KITEBOARD STATION...TIME WAS ESTIMATED


&&

$$

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KMHX [111914]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 111914
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
314 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0155 PM TSTM WND DMG PONZER 35.59N 76.49W
05/11/2013 OUTER BANKS HYDE NC SPOTTER

A TREE DOWN ACROSS RIVERSIDE CAMPGROUND ROAD...A
QUARTER MILE S OF PONZER


&&

EVENT NUMBER MHX1300113

$$

PAGANO

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KGRR [111856]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 111856
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
256 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM NON-TSTM WND GST S BIG SABLE POINT 44.06N 86.51W
05/11/2013 M42.00 MPH MASON MI OTHER FEDERAL

OBSERVATION TAKEN FROM BIG SABLE POINT GLERL


&&

$$

JMAPLES

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KGRR [111854]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 111854
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
254 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0250 PM HAIL 4 E PENTWATER 43.78N 86.36W
05/11/2013 E0.25 INCH OCEANA MI TRAINED SPOTTER

OBSERVER NOTED BRIEF DOWNPOUR OF PEA SIZE HAIL IN THE
INITIAL LINE. PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH NOW IS SNOW.


&&

$$

JMAPLES

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KGRR [111846]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 111846
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
246 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NNW SOUTH HAVEN 42.42N 86.29W
05/11/2013 M42 MPH LMZ777 MI OTHER FEDERAL

OBSERVATION TAKEN FROM SOUTH HAVEN GLERL SITE


&&

$$

JMAPLES

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KGRR [111844]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 111844
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
244 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 W MUSKEGON 43.23N 86.34W
05/11/2013 M49 MPH LMZ675 MI OTHER FEDERAL

OBSERVATION TAKEN FROM MUSKEGON GLERL SITE


&&

$$

JMAPLES

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KCYS [111844]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 111844
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1244 PM MDT SAT MAY 11 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1215 PM HAIL 11 NW CHEYENNE 41.26N 104.94W
05/11/2013 M0.25 INCH LARAMIE WY COCORAHS

DURATION 3 MINUTES.


&&

$$

MJAMSKI

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KGRR [111840]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 111840
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
240 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 WNW MANISTEE 44.25N 86.35W
05/11/2013 M42 MPH MANISTEE MI OTHER FEDERAL

MEASUREMENT TAKEN FROM THE MANISTEE HARBOR GLOS SITE


&&

$$

JMAPLES

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KGRR [111837]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 111837
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
237 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0228 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 S HOLLAND 42.74N 86.10W
05/11/2013 M41 MPH ALLEGAN MI ASOS


&&

$$

JMAPLES

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KGRR [111834]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 111834
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
234 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0230 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 S MUSKEGON 43.17N 86.24W
05/11/2013 M40 MPH MUSKEGON MI ASOS


&&

$$

JMAPLES

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0632

ACUS11 KWNS 111814
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111814
NCZ000-111945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0632
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0114 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 111814Z - 111945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/MARGINALLY
SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN. A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT.

DISCUSSION...SCTD TSTMS...OCCASIONALLY IN SMALL CLUSTERS...HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG A SFC CONFLUENCE AXIS ACROSS ERN NC THIS AFTN.
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND SFC DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S HAVE
RESULTED IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AVERAGING 25-30 KTS
SUGGESTS A MIX OF PULSE/MULTICELL STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLD
STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL REPORT WOULD
ALSO NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. STRONG/ISOLD SVR TSTMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS ERN NC INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS
THROUGH LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

..BUNTING/CARBIN.. 05/11/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM...

LAT...LON 33907783 33947834 34347820 35027757 35687656 35797618
35687568 35497542 35257542 33907785 33907783

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KMPX [111802]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 111802
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
102 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 PM SLEET 2 N MENOMONIE 44.92N 91.91W
05/11/2013 E0.10 INCH DUNN WI EMERGENCY MNGR

DECK WAS COVERED IN SLEET. HAD NOW CHANGED OVER TO SNOW.


&&

$$

LS

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KGRR [111754]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 111754
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
154 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0150 PM NON-TSTM WND GST MEARS 43.68N 86.42W
05/11/2013 E40 MPH OCEANA MI CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0631

ACUS11 KWNS 111744
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111744
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-111915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0631
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN PORTIONS OF MD AND VA...SERN
PA...DE...SRN NJ...NERN NC...

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 111744Z - 111915Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGH 20Z
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE STRONGER TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. TRENDS ARE
BEING MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA COMBINED WITH A SEASONABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN
MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON. STRENGTHENING
LOWER-MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW HAS RESULTED IN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR /AVERAGING 40KTS/ ACROSS THE AREA.

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE NEAR A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
ACROSS NRN VA NWD INTO SERN PA/SRN NJ THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALLOWS FOR DESTABILIZATION. ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS/SHORT-LIVED BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FARTHER SOUTH...THE AIR MASS IS MORE UNSTABLE OWING TO STRONGER
DIURNAL HEATING AND SCTD TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN A CONFLUENT AXIS
FROM SERN VA SWD INTO ERN NC. SCTD TSTMS ARE ALSO DEVELOPING TO THE
WEST OF THIS AREA NEAR THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. GIVEN PW VALUES OF
AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE STRONGER
TSTMS THIS AFTN WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA FOR A PSBL WW. A MORE TEMPORALLY/SPATIALLY LIMITED
THREAT ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA LEADS TO GREATER
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE NEED FOR A WW.

..BUNTING/CARBIN.. 05/11/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...CTP...LWX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON 38407505 37217571 36427579 36107579 35797659 36227807
36557932 36857952 37497961 38827861 39487787 39847701
40097634 40257526 40207466 40057409 39557428 38407505

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 111730
SWODY2
SPC AC 111729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY AN EXTENSIVE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WITH A COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO
MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC/FL PENINSULA AND
GULF OF MEXICO. GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES UPPER RIDGING WILL PARTIALLY
ABATE TO AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

...FL PENINSULA...
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SUBTLE CYCLONIC/WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA ON
SUNDAY. WHILE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT...POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OR HALF OF THE PENINSULA...WITH COASTAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THE WARM SECTOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THESE FACTORS AND RESIDUALLY COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT /AROUND -10C AT 500 MB/...SOME STRONGER/POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF WIND AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COULD OCCUR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

...NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
AN UPSWING IN ISOLATED TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF ORE INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ID AND WESTERN MT. THIS WILL BE AS THE REGION
BEGINS TO COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE AN APPROACHING/AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH NEARING THE COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A SUFFICIENT
COLLOCATION OF MODERATE SHEAR/MINIMAL BUOYANCY COULD LEAD TO A FEW
STRONGER STORMS IN AREAS SUCH AS NORTHEAST ORE/NORTH-CENTRAL ID
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT THE SCENARIO CURRENTLY APPEARS RATHER
MARGINAL FOR SEVERE PROBABILITIES. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A BIT
MORE OF AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE TSTM THREAT ACROSS THE REGION WILL
DELAYED UNTIL MONDAY...SEE THE CURRENT DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.

..GUYER.. 05/11/2013

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KMHX [111711]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 111711
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
110 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1255 PM HAIL 1 SE ASKIN 35.21N 77.05W
05/11/2013 E0.88 INCH CRAVEN NC SPOTTER


&&

EVENT NUMBER MHX1300112

$$

PAGANO

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KCTP [111707]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KCTP 111707
LSRCTP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
107 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0432 PM HAIL GARLAND 41.80N 79.43W
05/10/2013 E1.00 INCH WARREN PA TRAINED SPOTTER

0435 PM HAIL 2 N PITTSFIELD 41.86N 79.38W
05/10/2013 E1.00 INCH WARREN PA TRAINED SPOTTER

1 INCH HAIL COVERING GROUND NR JCT RT 27 AND 6

0637 PM TSTM WND DMG EAST CONEMAUGH 40.35N 78.89W
05/10/2013 CAMBRIA PA 911 CALL CENTER

SEVERAL TREES WIRES DOWN IN WESTMONT JST E. TAYLOR TWP

0640 PM TSTM WND GST ALTOONA 40.51N 78.40W
05/10/2013 E60 MPH BLAIR PA BROADCAST MEDIA

WTAJ TV-MET REPORTED TSTM WINDS OVER 58 MPH

0640 PM HAIL ALTOONA 40.51N 78.40W
05/10/2013 M0.75 INCH BLAIR PA NWS EMPLOYEE

0645 PM TSTM WND DMG ALTOONA 40.51N 78.40W
05/10/2013 BLAIR PA 911 CALL CENTER

NMRS TREES AND WIRES DOWN FROM HOLLIDAYSBURG TO TYRONE.

0652 PM TSTM WND DMG TIPTON 40.64N 78.30W
05/10/2013 BLAIR PA PUBLIC

LARGE TREES REPORTED DOWN.

0726 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 W BLACK MOSHANNON STA 40.91N 78.09W
05/10/2013 CENTRE PA 911 CALL CENTER

TREES AND WIRES DOWN ON MOSHANNON RD IN RUSH TWP

0806 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 NW LOCK HAVEN 41.20N 77.53W
05/10/2013 CLINTON PA SOCIAL MEDIA

SEVERAL TREES DOWN ALONG SR120 RENOVO ROAD


&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1300055 CTP1300056 CTP1300059 CTP1300057 CTP1300058
CTP1300060 CTP1300063 CTP1300061 CTP1300062

$$

EVANEGO

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KMKX [111656]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMKX 111656
LSRMKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1156 AM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0953 AM HIGH SUST WINDS FOND DU LAC AIRPORT 43.77N 88.49W
05/11/2013 M35 MPH FOND DU LAC WI ASOS

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH. GUSTED TO 41 MPH.


&&

$$

MEB

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 111632
SWODY1
SPC AC 111630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

VALID 111630Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES...

...MID ATLANTIC...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN SRN QUEBEC WILL TRACK TOWARD THE MOUTH OF
THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST AND
OFF MOST OF THE ERN SEABOARD THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SCATTERED SEVERE TSTMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LIFT ALONG THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY ACTS ON
POCKETS OF MODEST BUOYANCY FROM NC NWD ACROSS THE DELMARVA TO
NJ/SERN NY. FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
CORRIDOR ARE CHARACTERIZED BY GENERALLY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LIMITED INHIBITION TO CONTRIBUTE TO
SUSTAINED STORMS. ACTIVITY MAY CONGEAL INTO A BROKEN LOW-TOPPED
SQUALL LINE WITH STRONGER CORES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BOTH SMALL HAIL
AND LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LATEST 12Z 4KM WRF-NMM
AND WRF-ARW MODELS FORECAST THE STRONGEST CONVECTION TO SPREAD EAST
FROM ERN PA ACROSS NJ SOUTHWARD TO NRN VA AND MD ERN SHORE IN THE
18-21Z TIME FRAME.

...FL...
STRONG HEATING AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AREAS OF
STRONG DESTABILIZATION BENEATH DIFLUENT AND MODEST MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD SUPPORT ROBUST STORMS DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PRIMARILY FROM CNTRL INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE
PENINSULA. EFFECTIVE SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 25-30KT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
LOOSELY ORGANIZED MULTICELLULAR STORMS WITH LOCALIZED HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.

...SOUTH TX...
POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NRN MEXICO WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN RENEWED DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH/WEST
OF THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION
MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCED LATER TODAY AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO
EJECT FROM THE LOW LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH/LOW OVER NCNTRL
MEXICO. STRONG SRN STREAM UPPER FLOW PERSISTS AROUND THE ERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DISTURBANCE IN MEXICO AND WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT
DEEP SHEAR ACROSS SRN TX SO THAT ANY CONVECTION MOVING EAST WOULD
REMAIN ORGANIZED. SOME SIGNALS IN LATEST STORM SCALE GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL MCS SPREADING EAST ACROSS SOUTH
TX LATER THIS EVENING BUT MODEL CONSISTENCY IN THIS SCENARIO REMAINS
LIMITED. FURTHER REVIEW MAY SUPPORT THE INTRODUCTION OF A SMALL SLGT
RISK AREA WITH HIGHER HAIL/WIND PROBABILITIES IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS
LATER TODAY.

...HIGH PLAINS...
UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRONG HEATING BEHIND FRONTAL SURGE SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME TSTM DEVELOPMENT WHERE LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER COULD SUPPORT A LOW PROBABILITY AND MARGINAL HAIL/WIND THREAT
LATER TODAY FROM SERN WY INTO NERN CO.

...NERN OK ACROSS THE OZARKS...
LIFT ALONG ADVANCING POLAR FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG HEATING
AND POCKETS OF GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME SMALL/MARGINAL HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

..CARBIN/BUNTING.. 05/11/2013

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