Saturday, May 11, 2013

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0632

ACUS11 KWNS 111814
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111814
NCZ000-111945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0632
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0114 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 111814Z - 111945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/MARGINALLY
SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN. A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT.

DISCUSSION...SCTD TSTMS...OCCASIONALLY IN SMALL CLUSTERS...HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG A SFC CONFLUENCE AXIS ACROSS ERN NC THIS AFTN.
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND SFC DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S HAVE
RESULTED IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AVERAGING 25-30 KTS
SUGGESTS A MIX OF PULSE/MULTICELL STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLD
STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL REPORT WOULD
ALSO NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. STRONG/ISOLD SVR TSTMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS ERN NC INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS
THROUGH LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

..BUNTING/CARBIN.. 05/11/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM...

LAT...LON 33907783 33947834 34347820 35027757 35687656 35797618
35687568 35497542 35257542 33907785 33907783

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