WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 750

WWUS20 KWNS 010242
SEL0
SPC WW 010242
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-010400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 750
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
942 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 750 ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

KANSAS
OKLAHOMA
TEXAS

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KLBF [010231]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 010231
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
931 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 PM HAIL THEDFORD 41.98N 100.57W
09/30/2009 E0.75 INCH THOMAS NE PUBLIC

&&

$$

TKECK

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KCYS [010146]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 010146
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
745 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1146 AM NON-TSTM WND GST SW ELK MOUNTAIN 12ESE 41.60N 106.21W
09/30/2009 M61 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

WYDOT SITE JUST SOUTH OF ARLINGTON...ELEV. 7763 FT.

0245 PM NON-TSTM WND GST NNE CHEYENNE 1WSW 41.08N 105.04W
09/30/2009 M60 MPH LARAMIE WY MESONET

UPRR SITE EMKAY...ELEV. 6724 FT.

0340 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SW CHEYENNE 1WSW 41.05N 104.89W
09/30/2009 M59 MPH LARAMIE WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

WYDOT SITE WYO HILL ALONG I-25 SOUTH OF CYS

0501 PM NON-TSTM WND GST CHEYENNE 41.15N 104.79W
09/30/2009 M60 MPH LARAMIE WY ASOS

0620 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 18 WNW CHEYENNE 41.24N 105.11W
09/30/2009 M61 MPH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0715 PM NON-TSTM WND GST NNE CHEYENNE 1WSW 41.08N 105.04W
09/30/2009 M62 MPH LARAMIE WY MESONET

UPRR SITE EMKAY...ELEV. 6724 FT.

&&

$$

JHATTEN

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KGID [010145]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 010145
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
844 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0840 PM HAIL ELWOOD 40.59N 99.86W
09/30/2009 E0.25 INCH GOSPER NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

PEA SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN ELWOOD

&&

$$

PFANNKUCH

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KCRP [010123]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KCRP 010123
LSRCRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
823 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0803 PM FLASH FLOOD 7 NW EDROY 28.00N 97.75W
09/30/2009 SAN PATRICIO TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTED HIGHWAY 188 NEAR INTERSTATE 37
IS PASSABLE BUT DOES HAVE WATER OVER THE ROAD AND HIGH
WATERS SIGNS WILL BE PLACED ON HIGHWAY 188 AS WELL AS ON
SEVERAL COUNTY ROADS.

&&

$$

TEVANS

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KCRP [010107]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KCRP 010107
LSRCRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
807 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0803 PM FLASH FLOOD 7 NW EDROY 28.00N 97.75W
09/30/2009 SAN PATRICIO TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGHWAY 188 NEAR INTERSTATE 37 WAS IMPASSABLE.

&&

$$

TEVANS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 010101
SWODY1
SPC AC 010059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2009

VALID 010100Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS KS...WRN OK AND ERN
PANHANDLE OF TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS CONUS FEATURES HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGHS...ONE
FROM MT TO NRN NM...AND ANOTHER EXTENDING SWD FROM LOW OVER QUE
ACROSS MID-ATLANTIC STATES. FORMER TROUGH IS FCST TO CONTINUE
MOVING EWD ACROSS HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT. RELATED SFC CYCLONE --
INITIALLY ANALYZED OVER NERN CO -- IS FCST TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS NEB
OVERNIGHT...WHILE COLD FRONT INITIALLY OVER W-CENTRAL AND N-CENTRAL
CO MOVES SEWD OVER WRN KS AND TX PANHANDLE. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NWD ACROSS MORE OF ERN/N-CENTRAL KS AND SWRN/S-CENTRAL NEB. DRYLINE
WAS ANALYZED AT 23Z FROM WARM FRONT INTERSECTION OVER SWRN NEB SWD
ACROSS W-CENTRAL KS THEN SSWWD OVER ERN OK PANHANDLE...E-CENTRAL TX
PANHANDLE...TO NEAR SERN CORNER NM. TX PORTION IS EXPECTED TO
RETREAT NWWD SLIGHTLY BEFORE STALLING OVERNIGHT...WHILE KS PORTIONS
REMAINS QUASISTATIONARY UNTIL OVERTAKEN BY COLD FRONT.

...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE FORMED AHEAD OF DRYLINE FROM
CENTRAL KS SWWD ACROSS PERMIAN BASIN REGION OF SW TX. MOST
FAVORABLE SVR THREAT FROM NEARLY SFC-BASED CONVECTION SHOULD BE IN
AND NEAR WW 750. REF WW 750 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR
ADDITIONAL NOWCAST INFO ON SVR THREAT FROM CENTRAL KS TO ERN TX
PANHANDLE.

GIVEN LACK OF MORE ROBUST NEAR-SFC MOISTURE AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CHARACTER OF ONGOING/SFC-BASED CONVECTION...MODIFIED 00Z RAOBS FROM
OUN...DDC AND LBF INDICATE BOOST IN BUOYANCY PROVIDED BY SFC MOIST
ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY DIABATIC COOLING. THIS PROCESS SHOULD
KEEP MLCINH STG E OF NARROW CORRIDOR WITHIN WHICH STG-SVR TSTMS ARE
ONGOING ATTM AHEAD OF DRYLINE. CURRENT ACTIVITY LARGELY MAY
DIMINISH DURING NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS A RESULT.

HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL STG-SVR CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT -- IN
TWO POSSIBLE MODES:
1. ELEVATED MCS OVER PORTIONS LOWER-MID MO VALLEY REGION EWD OVER
PORTIONS IA/NRN MO...PERHAPS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER BAND OF PRECIP
THAT WOULD BE ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO ARC OF SFC WARM FRONT...AND
100-200 NM TO ITS NE. SUCH ACTIVITY IS PROGGED BY
RUC...SPECTRAL...OPERATIONAL WRF AND SEVERAL SREF
MEMBERS...DEVELOPING NEAR NOSE OF 45-55 KT LLJ...IN REGIME OF STG
MOISTURE ADVECTION/TRANSPORT AND RELATED ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO LFC.
MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY SUCH ACTIVITY WILL BE HAIL.

2. PRE COLD-FRONTAL LINE LATE IN PERIOD...PROGGED BY SEVERAL SREF
MEMBERS AND OPERATIONAL WRF FROM S-CENTRAL KS SWWD ACROSS
CENTRAL/SWRN OK AND PERHAPS PORTIONS NW TX. ISOLATED GUSTS/HAIL
NEAR SVR LEVELS IS POSSIBLE...WITH ALIGNMENT OF CONVECTION NEARLY
PARALLEL TO MEAN DEEP-LAYER FLOW VECTOR.

..EDWARDS.. 10/01/2009

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2050

ACUS11 KWNS 010032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010031
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-010200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2050
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN KS AND WESTERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 750...

VALID 010031Z - 010200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 750
CONTINUES.

SEVERE TSTM WATCH 750 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z...WITH THE PRIMARY RISK OF
SEVERE HAIL.

A RELATIVELY ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS WESTERN OK AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN KS. A SUPERCELL ACROSS FAR WESTERN OK /BECKHAM AND
ROGER MILLS COUNTIES AS OF 0020Z/ MAY CONTINUE TO THRIVE OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO AS IT CROSSES THE LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS...WITH LATEST
VICI PROFILER DATA INDICATIVE OF AROUND 35-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. OTHERWISE...A SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATED MIXED LAYER/CAP APPEARS TO
BE LIMITING THE COVERAGE OF STRONG/SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG/EAST OF THE DRYLINE /REFERENCE 00Z OBSERVED NORMAN AND TOPEKA
RAOBS/...ALTHOUGH ELEVATED STORMS MAY INCREASE LATE THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT VIA AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT REGIME AND AN EASTWARD SURGING COLD FRONT.

..GUYER.. 10/01/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON 37910006 38679898 38489715 35099845 35420041 37910006

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KTFX [010015]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 010015
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
614 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM HEAVY SNOW 1 S BOZEMAN 45.66N 111.04W
09/30/2009 M5.5 INCH GALLATIN MT CO-OP OBSERVER

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AS OF 4 PM...SNOW DEPTH AT 4 PM WAS
1 INCH.

0607 PM HEAVY SNOW 18 SSW FORESTGROVE 46.77N 109.28W
09/30/2009 M6.0 INCH FERGUS MT TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOW STARTED ABOUT 0815 MDT.

&&

$$

EK

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KOUN [010010]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KOUN 010010
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
710 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0707 PM HAIL 4 W SWEETWATER 35.42N 99.99W
09/30/2009 E1.75 INCH BECKHAM OK PUBLIC

&&

$$

FM

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KOUN [010009]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 010009
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
709 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0707 PM HAIL 5 W SWEETWATER 35.42N 100.01W
09/30/2009 E1.75 INCH WHEELER TX PUBLIC

&&

$$

FM

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KKEY [302355]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 302355
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
754 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0716 PM WATER SPOUT 5 SE BIG PINE KEY 24.64N 81.31W
09/30/2009 GMZ054 FL PUBLIC

A MEMBER OF THE PUBLIC TRAVELLING NORTHBOUND ALONG THE
OVERSEAS HIGHWAY NEAR RAMROD KEY REPORTED A WATERSPOUT
SOUTH OF BIG PINE KEY AND EAST OF MUNSON ISLAND.

0720 PM WATER SPOUT 5 S BIG PINE KEY 24.61N 81.37W
09/30/2009 GMZ054 FL PUBLIC

A MEMBER OF THE PUBLIC REPORTED A WATERSPOUT THAT
EXTENDED TO THE OCEAN SURFACE AND WAS LOCATED OFF OF LONG
BEACH IN SOUTH BIG PINE KEY. DURATION UNKNOWN.

&&

$$

PFUENTES

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KBOU [302326]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOU 302326
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
526 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0501 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 N LONGMONT 40.20N 105.11W
09/30/2009 M62.00 MPH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

JK

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2049

ACUS11 KWNS 302318
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302317
TXZ000-NMZ000-010015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2049
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0617 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/SWRN TX AND FAR SERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 302317Z - 010015Z

ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
WRN/SWRN TX AND FAR SERN NM THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE TOO ISOLATED/MARGINAL FOR A WW.

WV IMAGERY INDICATES A PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL FEATURE LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CA IS BEING SWEPT
E-NEWD INTO SRN NM AND WRN/SWRN TX. MEANWHILE...STRONG BOUNDARY
LAYER HEATING HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE SOURCE COMBINED WITH THE WELL
MIXED PBL IS RESULTING IN INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AS HIGH BASED STORMS
MOVE E ACROSS MAINLY SW TX. AS THESE STORMS CONTINUE MOVING
EWD...THEY WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING CINH VALUES. IN ADDITION...THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO STABILIZE THE WELL MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DECREASE IN STORM
INTENSITY DURING THE EVENING. FOR THESE REASONS...THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY ISOLATED AND SHORT LIVED...AND
SHOULD NOT REQUIRE A WW.

..GARNER.. 09/30/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 31970369 32490307 32900206 32620123 30880199 30710307
31200382 31970369

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KPQR [302315]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KPQR 302315
LSRPQR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
415 PM PDT WED SEP 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 PM FUNNEL CLOUD SPRINGFIELD 44.05N 122.98W
09/29/2009 LANE OR PUBLIC

WIND DAMAGE. SEVERAL STEEL AND ALUMINUM PANELS BLOWN
DOWN. DAMAGE TO A PORTABLE AWNING.

&&

$$

RNELSON

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KGLD [302311]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 302311
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
511 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0304 PM NON-TSTM WND GST FIRSTVIEW 38.82N 102.53W
09/30/2009 M54 MPH CHEYENNE CO MESONET

MEASURED AT CDOT WEATHER STATION

&&

$$

FOLTZ

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KABQ [302309]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 302309
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
509 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0333 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 NE LAS VEGAS 35.66N 105.14W
09/30/2009 M61.00 MPH SAN MIGUEL NM ASOS

&&

$$

34

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KGLD [302308]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 302308
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
507 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0401 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 E KIRK 39.62N 102.49W
09/30/2009 M54.00 MPH YUMA CO MESONET

0430 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 12 N GOODLAND 39.52N 101.67W
09/30/2009 M58.00 MPH SHERMAN KS MESONET

MEASURED 10 M AGL

&&

$$

FOLTZ

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KDDC [302302]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 302302
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
602 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0535 PM HAIL 10 SSW ST. JOHN 37.87N 98.83W
09/30/2009 E0.75 INCH STAFFORD KS PUBLIC

&&

$$

WRIGHT

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2048

ACUS11 KWNS 302301
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302301
NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-010030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2048
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0601 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN/CENTRAL NEB AND SOUTHERN SD/FAR NORTHERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 302301Z - 010030Z

TSTMS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY/MID EVENING ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL NEB AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SD/PERHAPS
NORTHERN KS...WITH AN INCREASING RISK FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE
HAIL/WIND. THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS UNCLEAR...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN NEB...ALONG/JUST NORTH
OF A DEEPENING 994 MB SURFACE LOW AND ACCOMPANYING TRIPLE
POINT...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ROUGHLY N-S ACROSS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS INTO EASTERN CO AND A DRYLINE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEB
TO WESTERN KS. THIS SAME INCREASING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS MASS
CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NEB OWING TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS VIA IMMINENT ARRIVAL OF
APPRECIABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/UPPER JET EXIT REGION.
EVEN WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE STEADILY INCREASING NORTHWARD INTO
THE REGION /ALBEIT 50S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/...MODIFIED 18Z OBSERVED
RAOB FROM NORTH PLATTE AND MORE CONTEMPORARY RUC/NAM GUIDANCE IMPLY
THAT CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
NONETHELESS...STEEP LAPSE RATES/COOL THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT AND A
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SOME WELL ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS/SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS
THROUGH THE EVENING.

..GUYER.. 09/30/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...CYS...

LAT...LON 43070264 43450053 42079923 40169883 39880008 40680093
41370285 43070264

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KDDC [302257]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 302257
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
557 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0535 PM HAIL 6 NNE BYERS 37.87N 98.84W
09/30/2009 E0.88 INCH STAFFORD KS PUBLIC

&&

$$

JRJ

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KCYS [302234]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 302234
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
434 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1001 AM NON-TSTM WND GST LARAMIE 41.31N 105.58W
09/30/2009 M64 MPH ALBANY WY ASOS

0348 PM NON-TSTM WND GST CHEYENNE 41.15N 104.79W
09/30/2009 M56 MPH LARAMIE WY ASOS

&&

$$

RUBIN

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KABQ [302219]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 302219
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
419 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0305 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 WNW GALLUP 35.54N 108.78W
09/30/2009 M58.00 MPH MCKINLEY NM ASOS

&&

$$

34

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KGLD [302214]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 302214
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
414 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0350 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 11 WNW FIRSTVIEW 38.90N 102.70W
09/30/2009 M61 MPH CHEYENNE CO MESONET

&&

$$

FOLTZ

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KGLD [302212]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 302212
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
412 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 W GOODLAND 39.34N 101.80W
09/30/2009 M58 MPH SHERMAN KS MESONET

&&

$$

FOLTZ

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KGLD [302152]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 302152
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
352 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0215 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 12 N GOODLAND 39.52N 101.71W
09/30/2009 M56 MPH SHERMAN KS NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

$$

HENDERSON

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 302107
SWODY1
SPC AC 302104

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0404 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2009

VALID 302105Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CNTRL/SRN PLNS...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE A SLGT RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS...OK AND TX
PNHDL. SFC-BASED INITIATION HAS INDEED OCCURRED INVOF DRYLINE.
PREV DISCUSSION BELOW REMAINS VALID.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0313 CDT WED SEP 30 2009/

..CNTRL/SRN PLNS...
SERIES OF MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS CONSIDERABLE VEERING OF THE LLVL FLOW

OVER THE HIGH PLNS DESPITE A STRONG UPR TROUGH/JET DIGGING INTO THE
GRT BASIN. INSPECTION OF WATER VAPOR SHOWS THAT A HEALTHY LEAD
MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS TRANSLATING NE THROUGH ERN CO AND IS
LIKELY THE CULPRIT TO THE VEERING WIND FIELDS. THIS IMPULSE WILL
CONTINUE ENE INTO NEB AND NRN KS TONIGHT WITH THE PRIMARY PV-ANOMALY

ROTATING EWD FROM UT/WRN WY TO THE CNTRL HIGH PLNS OVERNIGHT.

DRYLINE HAS MIXED EWD INTO WRN KS...ERN OK PNHDL...CNTRL TX PNHDL
AND NWRN PORTIONS OF THE TX S PLNS. VSBL SATL SHOWS HI-BASED CU
FORMING WITHIN A HOT AND DEEPLY-MIXED POST-DRYLINE ENVIRONMENT FROM
NEAR KDDC TO NW OF KPVW. MORNING MODEL RUNS UNDERESTIMATED SFC
TEMPERATURES IN THIS REGION...AND MLCAPES/MLCINH ARE HIGHER/WEAKER
THAN EXPECTED. AS SRN PORTIONS OF THE LEAD WAVE BRUSHES ACROSS THE
DRYLINE...ISOLD TSTMS MAY FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE IN SWRN KS SWWD
INTO THE TX S PLNS FROM MID-LATE AFTN. AREA PROFILERS DEPICT ABOUT
30-45 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL
STORMS...ESP GIVEN SUCH STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES. LARGE HAIL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. SUSTAINED SFC-BASED STORMS MAY BE
SHORT-LIVED AS ACTIVITY MOVES AWAY FROM THE DRYLINE DURING THE
EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN LOW SVR PROBABILITIES GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
IN STORM FORMATION AND THE SHORT TEMPORAL/SMALL COVERAGE EXPECTED
EVEN IF STORMS DO FORM.

WHILE SFC-BASED INITIATION IS NOT LIKELY FARTHER N DUE TO CAPPING
CONCERNS /REF 18Z KLBF SOUNDING/...RISKS FOR ELEVATED TSTMS WILL
INCREASE AFTER DARK AS THE PRIMARY IMPULSE ROTATES CLOSER TO THE
REGION. A 40-50 KT SLY LLJ COUPLED WITH INCREASING SWLY MID-LVL
FLOW AND A SUBSTANTIAL LAPSE RATE IN THE MID-LVLS WILL ENCOURAGE
ORGANIZATION AND LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION. TSTMS SHOULD EVOLVE FROM
SRN SD INTO NEB AND PARTS OF KS AND MOVE ENE TOWARD THE MID/LWR MO
RVR VLY BY 12Z.

..JPR.. 09/30/2009

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2009/

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
STRONG/COLD TROUGH CONTINUES EWD ACROSS ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
TONIGHT. RATHER COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN WITH THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT
FROM WRN WY SWD THRU ERN UT INTO NRN AZ. IN RESPONSE TO ONGOING
VIGOROUS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ACTIVE BAND
OF CONVECTION/SURFACE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED SWD FROM E OF RWL TO WRN
CO THIS MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY WINDS TO NEAR SVR LEVELS.

A RATHER DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WY EXPECTED TO
CONSOLIDATE INTO A CENTER TO LEE OF CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MOVE EWD
TONIGHT ALONG KS/NE BORDER. SLY LOW LEVEL JET HIGH PLAINS WILL
INCREASE TO 60KT OR GREATER TONIGHT AS TROUGH AND 70-80KT MID LEVEL
JET APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

GULF MOISTURE RAPIDLY RETURNING FROM SRN PLAINS AND IN CONCERT WITH
A STEEP EML SPREADING EWD WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE CONDITIONAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE PRIMARY CAVEAT WILL BE THE
SUFFICIENT WEAKENING OF THE CURRENT STRONG CAP TO ALLOW SURFACE
BASED STORM INITIATION.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY THREAT INTO THE EVENING WILL BE WITH
THE STRONG ASCENT AND COLD ADVECTION THAT IS FORCING THE CURRENT
ACTIVE CONVECTION CENTRAL ROCKIES AS IT ROTATES NEWD INTO HIGH
PLAINS OF NEB/SWRN SD. WHILE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED THE
COMBINATION OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES...DCAPES OF 1000 J/KG OR
GREATER AND 50KT OF SHEAR...SUPPORTS WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WITH
STORMS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FURTHER S ALONG THE DRY LINE WHICH SETS UP THRU WRN KS INTO TX
PANHANDLE...THE CAP WILL WEAKEN WITH STRONG HEATING...BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE LIKELY WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT INHIBITION
TO PRECLUDE STORM INITIATION. HAVE THUS REDUCED SOME THE THREAT OF
SEVERE STORM COVERAGE IN KS THRU THE EVENING. HOWEVER WITH THE
SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...ANY STORM THAT IS
ABLE TO FORM OFF THE DRY LINE COULD BECOME QUICKLY SEVERE WITH A
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

OVERNIGHT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND POTENTIAL SEVERITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AGAIN THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...HOWEVER A MORE ORGANIZED WIND DAMAGE
THREAT COULD SPREAD EWD ACROSS NE WHERE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE
GREATEST AHEAD AND N OF THE TRACK OF SURFACE LOW.

...CENTRAL ROCKIES...
WITH THE COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING WRN CO...POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST THRU THE AFTERNOON. STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG UPPER JET WILL ENHANCE WIND POTENTIAL WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS VICINITY AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

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KABQ [302101]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 302101
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0157 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 NE LAS VEGAS 35.66N 105.14W
09/30/2009 M59.00 MPH SAN MIGUEL NM ASOS

&&

$$

34

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KGLD [302100]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 302100
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
300 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0250 PM DUST STORM 5 E STRATTON 39.30N 102.51W
09/30/2009 KIT CARSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

I-70 FROM MILE MARKERS 419-429 CLOSED DUE TO BLOWING DUST
WITH ZERO VISIBILITY. CAR ACCIDENT IN WEST BOUND LANES
WITH UNKNOWN INJURIES. TIME IS ESTIMATED.

&&

$$

HENDERSON

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 750

WWUS20 KWNS 302057
SEL0
SPC WW 302057
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-010400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 750
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
400 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS
PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 400 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF HUTCHINSON KANSAS TO 80 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
CLINTON OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...STRONG DOWN SLOPE WARMING HAS EFFECTIVELY REMOVED CAP
ALONG DRY LINE. WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM NW E OF DRY LN
AND APPROACH OF A VERY STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND WIND FIELD...STORMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND E OF DRY LINE. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS MOVE EWD OFF DRY LINE.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.

...HALES

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2047

ACUS11 KWNS 302039
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302039
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-302215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2047
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN KS SWWD THROUGH PARTS OF THE OK/TX
PNHDLS AND THE TX S PLAINS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 302039Z - 302215Z

THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE
BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WELL-DEFINED DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM E
OF GCK SSWWD TO NEAR BGD AND AMA TO W OF LBB. THIS FEATURE HAS
MIXED FAIRLY RAPIDLY EWD THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...
HOWEVER RECENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT IT HAS DECELERATED
/EVEN STALLED OVER WRN KS/. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO
STRONGER PRESSURE FALLS SPREADING EWD THROUGH CNTRL INTO ERN
CO...WHICH IS ALSO CORROBORATED BY GRADUALLY BACKING PROFILER/VWP
WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS E OF DRYLINE.

AS MENTIONED IN 20Z OUTLOOK...TEMPERATURES IMMEDIATELY W OF DRYLINE
HAVE WARMED TO ABOVE EARLIER MODEL GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
OK PNHDL INTO FAR SWRN KS. THUS...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP WITHIN THIS LOW-LEVEL
THERMAL AXIS AND PERHAPS SUSTAIN ITSELF EWD INTO STRONG CAP.
CURRENTLY...THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR STORM INITIATION APPEAR TO BE:
1) NEAR DRYLINE UNDULATION OVER MEADE COUNTY KS...AND 2) NE-SW
DRYLINE SEGMENT FROM E/NE OF BGD SSWWD TO N OF LBB. SHOULD
DEEP...MOIST CONVECTION BECOME SUSTAINED...KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL EVOLUTION WITH THE THREAT FOR HAIL AND
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..MEAD.. 09/30/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 34210146 34280210 35030243 36920085 37990044 38720056
38949987 38359927 37139938 35460029 34220112 34210146

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Corr 1

ACUS01 KWNS 302015
SWODY1
SPC AC 302014

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0314 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2009

VALID 302000Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
PLNS...

CORRECTED FOR CATEGORICAL SLGT LINE

...CNTRL/SRN PLNS...
SERIES OF MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS CONSIDERABLE VEERING OF THE LLVL FLOW
OVER THE HIGH PLNS DESPITE A STRONG UPR TROUGH/JET DIGGING INTO THE
GRT BASIN. INSPECTION OF WATER VAPOR SHOWS THAT A HEALTHY LEAD
MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS TRANSLATING NE THROUGH ERN CO AND IS
LIKELY THE CULPRIT TO THE VEERING WIND FIELDS. THIS IMPULSE WILL
CONTINUE ENE INTO NEB AND NRN KS TONIGHT WITH THE PRIMARY PV-ANOMALY
ROTATING EWD FROM UT/WRN WY TO THE CNTRL HIGH PLNS OVERNIGHT.

DRYLINE HAS MIXED EWD INTO WRN KS...ERN OK PNHDL...CNTRL TX PNHDL
AND NWRN PORTIONS OF THE TX S PLNS. VSBL SATL SHOWS HI-BASED CU
FORMING WITHIN A HOT AND DEEPLY-MIXED POST-DRYLINE ENVIRONMENT FROM
NEAR KDDC TO NW OF KPVW. MORNING MODEL RUNS UNDERESTIMATED SFC
TEMPERATURES IN THIS REGION...AND MLCAPES/MLCINH ARE HIGHER/WEAKER
THAN EXPECTED. AS SRN PORTIONS OF THE LEAD WAVE BRUSHES ACROSS THE
DRYLINE...ISOLD TSTMS MAY FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE IN SWRN KS SWWD
INTO THE TX S PLNS FROM MID-LATE AFTN. AREA PROFILERS DEPICT ABOUT
30-45 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL
STORMS...ESP GIVEN SUCH STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES. LARGE HAIL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. SUSTAINED SFC-BASED STORMS MAY BE
SHORT-LIVED AS ACTIVITY MOVES AWAY FROM THE DRYLINE DURING THE
EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN LOW SVR PROBABILITIES GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
IN STORM FORMATION AND THE SHORT TEMPORAL/SMALL COVERAGE EXPECTED
EVEN IF STORMS DO FORM.

WHILE SFC-BASED INITIATION IS NOT LIKELY FARTHER N DUE TO CAPPING
CONCERNS /REF 18Z KLBF SOUNDING/...RISKS FOR ELEVATED TSTMS WILL
INCREASE AFTER DARK AS THE PRIMARY IMPULSE ROTATES CLOSER TO THE
REGION. A 40-50 KT SLY LLJ COUPLED WITH INCREASING SWLY MID-LVL
FLOW AND A SUBSTANTIAL LAPSE RATE IN THE MID-LVLS WILL ENCOURAGE
ORGANIZATION AND LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION. TSTMS SHOULD EVOLVE FROM
SRN SD INTO NEB AND PARTS OF KS AND MOVE ENE TOWARD THE MID/LWR MO
RVR VLY BY 12Z.

..RACY.. 09/30/2009

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2009/

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
STRONG/COLD TROUGH CONTINUES EWD ACROSS ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
TONIGHT. RATHER COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN WITH THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT
FROM WRN WY SWD THRU ERN UT INTO NRN AZ. IN RESPONSE TO ONGOING
VIGOROUS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ACTIVE BAND
OF CONVECTION/SURFACE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED SWD FROM E OF RWL TO WRN
CO THIS MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY WINDS TO NEAR SVR LEVELS.

A RATHER DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WY EXPECTED TO
CONSOLIDATE INTO A CENTER TO LEE OF CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MOVE EWD
TONIGHT ALONG KS/NE BORDER. SLY LOW LEVEL JET HIGH PLAINS WILL
INCREASE TO 60KT OR GREATER TONIGHT AS TROUGH AND 70-80KT MID LEVEL
JET APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

GULF MOISTURE RAPIDLY RETURNING FROM SRN PLAINS AND IN CONCERT WITH
A STEEP EML SPREADING EWD WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE CONDITIONAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE PRIMARY CAVEAT WILL BE THE
SUFFICIENT WEAKENING OF THE CURRENT STRONG CAP TO ALLOW SURFACE
BASED STORM INITIATION.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY THREAT INTO THE EVENING WILL BE WITH
THE STRONG ASCENT AND COLD ADVECTION THAT IS FORCING THE CURRENT
ACTIVE CONVECTION CENTRAL ROCKIES AS IT ROTATES NEWD INTO HIGH
PLAINS OF NEB/SWRN SD. WHILE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED THE
COMBINATION OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES...DCAPES OF 1000 J/KG OR
GREATER AND 50KT OF SHEAR...SUPPORTS WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WITH
STORMS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FURTHER S ALONG THE DRY LINE WHICH SETS UP THRU WRN KS INTO TX
PANHANDLE...THE CAP WILL WEAKEN WITH STRONG HEATING...BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE LIKELY WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT INHIBITION
TO PRECLUDE STORM INITIATION. HAVE THUS REDUCED SOME THE THREAT OF
SEVERE STORM COVERAGE IN KS THRU THE EVENING. HOWEVER WITH THE
SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...ANY STORM THAT IS
ABLE TO FORM OFF THE DRY LINE COULD BECOME QUICKLY SEVERE WITH A
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

OVERNIGHT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND POTENTIAL SEVERITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AGAIN THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...HOWEVER A MORE ORGANIZED WIND DAMAGE
THREAT COULD SPREAD EWD ACROSS NE WHERE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE
GREATEST AHEAD AND N OF THE TRACK OF SURFACE LOW.

...CENTRAL ROCKIES...
WITH THE COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING WRN CO...POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST THRU THE AFTERNOON. STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG UPPER JET WILL ENHANCE WIND POTENTIAL WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS VICINITY AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 302002
SWODY1
SPC AC 301958

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2009

VALID 302000Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
PLNS...

...CNTRL/SRN PLNS...
SERIES OF MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS CONSIDERABLE VEERING OF THE LLVL FLOW
OVER THE HIGH PLNS DESPITE A STRONG UPR TROUGH/JET DIGGING INTO THE
GRT BASIN. INSPECTION OF WATER VAPOR SHOWS THAT A HEALTHY LEAD
MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS TRANSLATING NE THROUGH ERN CO AND IS
LIKELY THE CULPRIT TO THE VEERING WIND FIELDS. THIS IMPULSE WILL
CONTINUE ENE INTO NEB AND NRN KS TONIGHT WITH THE PRIMARY PV-ANOMALY
ROTATING EWD FROM UT/WRN WY TO THE CNTRL HIGH PLNS OVERNIGHT.

DRYLINE HAS MIXED EWD INTO WRN KS...ERN OK PNHDL...CNTRL TX PNHDL
AND NWRN PORTIONS OF THE TX S PLNS. VSBL SATL SHOWS HI-BASED CU
FORMING WITHIN A HOT AND DEEPLY-MIXED POST-DRYLINE ENVIRONMENT FROM
NEAR KDDC TO NW OF KPVW. MORNING MODEL RUNS UNDERESTIMATED SFC
TEMPERATURES IN THIS REGION...AND MLCAPES/MLCINH ARE HIGHER/WEAKER
THAN EXPECTED. AS SRN PORTIONS OF THE LEAD WAVE BRUSHES ACROSS THE
DRYLINE...ISOLD TSTMS MAY FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE IN SWRN KS SWWD
INTO THE TX S PLNS FROM MID-LATE AFTN. AREA PROFILERS DEPICT ABOUT
30-45 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL
STORMS...ESP GIVEN SUCH STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES. LARGE HAIL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. SUSTAINED SFC-BASED STORMS MAY BE
SHORT-LIVED AS ACTIVITY MOVES AWAY FROM THE DRYLINE DURING THE
EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN LOW SVR PROBABILITIES GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
IN STORM FORMATION AND THE SHORT TEMPORAL/SMALL COVERAGE EXPECTED
EVEN IF STORMS DO FORM.

WHILE SFC-BASED INITIATION IS NOT LIKELY FARTHER N DUE TO CAPPING
CONCERNS /REF 18Z KLBF SOUNDING/...RISKS FOR ELEVATED TSTMS WILL
INCREASE AFTER DARK AS THE PRIMARY IMPULSE ROTATES CLOSER TO THE
REGION. A 40-50 KT SLY LLJ COUPLED WITH INCREASING SWLY MID-LVL
FLOW AND A SUBSTANTIAL LAPSE RATE IN THE MID-LVLS WILL ENCOURAGE
ORGANIZATION AND LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION. TSTMS SHOULD EVOLVE FROM
SRN SD INTO NEB AND PARTS OF KS AND MOVE ENE TOWARD THE MID/LWR MO
RVR VLY BY 12Z.

..RACY.. 09/30/2009

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2009/

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
STRONG/COLD TROUGH CONTINUES EWD ACROSS ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
TONIGHT. RATHER COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN WITH THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT
FROM WRN WY SWD THRU ERN UT INTO NRN AZ. IN RESPONSE TO ONGOING
VIGOROUS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ACTIVE BAND
OF CONVECTION/SURFACE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED SWD FROM E OF RWL TO WRN
CO THIS MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY WINDS TO NEAR SVR LEVELS.

A RATHER DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WY EXPECTED TO
CONSOLIDATE INTO A CENTER TO LEE OF CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MOVE EWD
TONIGHT ALONG KS/NE BORDER. SLY LOW LEVEL JET HIGH PLAINS WILL
INCREASE TO 60KT OR GREATER TONIGHT AS TROUGH AND 70-80KT MID LEVEL
JET APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

GULF MOISTURE RAPIDLY RETURNING FROM SRN PLAINS AND IN CONCERT WITH
A STEEP EML SPREADING EWD WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE CONDITIONAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE PRIMARY CAVEAT WILL BE THE
SUFFICIENT WEAKENING OF THE CURRENT STRONG CAP TO ALLOW SURFACE
BASED STORM INITIATION.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY THREAT INTO THE EVENING WILL BE WITH
THE STRONG ASCENT AND COLD ADVECTION THAT IS FORCING THE CURRENT
ACTIVE CONVECTION CENTRAL ROCKIES AS IT ROTATES NEWD INTO HIGH
PLAINS OF NEB/SWRN SD. WHILE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED THE
COMBINATION OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES...DCAPES OF 1000 J/KG OR
GREATER AND 50KT OF SHEAR...SUPPORTS WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WITH
STORMS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FURTHER S ALONG THE DRY LINE WHICH SETS UP THRU WRN KS INTO TX
PANHANDLE...THE CAP WILL WEAKEN WITH STRONG HEATING...BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE LIKELY WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT INHIBITION
TO PRECLUDE STORM INITIATION. HAVE THUS REDUCED SOME THE THREAT OF
SEVERE STORM COVERAGE IN KS THRU THE EVENING. HOWEVER WITH THE
SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...ANY STORM THAT IS
ABLE TO FORM OFF THE DRY LINE COULD BECOME QUICKLY SEVERE WITH A
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

OVERNIGHT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND POTENTIAL SEVERITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AGAIN THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...HOWEVER A MORE ORGANIZED WIND DAMAGE
THREAT COULD SPREAD EWD ACROSS NE WHERE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE
GREATEST AHEAD AND N OF THE TRACK OF SURFACE LOW.

...CENTRAL ROCKIES...
WITH THE COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING WRN CO...POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST THRU THE AFTERNOON. STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG UPPER JET WILL ENHANCE WIND POTENTIAL WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS VICINITY AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

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KPDT [301821]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KPDT 301821
LSRPDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1121 AM PDT WED SEP 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1054 AM HAIL 1 ENE LA GRANDE 45.33N 118.07W
09/30/2009 M0.25 INCH UNION OR TRAINED SPOTTER

A SOUTHWEST MOVING STORM CELL PRODUCED SMALL HAIL
SLIGHTLY SMALLER THAN A QUARTER INCH NEAR EASTERN OREGON
UNIVERSITY. THE CLOUDS HEIGHTS IN THE AREA ALSO BEGAN TO
LOWER DURING THE SHOWER.

&&

$$

RQB

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KPIH [301807]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 301807
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
1207 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1206 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 SSE PRESTON 42.09N 111.87W
09/30/2009 M0.50 INCH FRANKLIN ID TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

VALLE

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KPIH [301757]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 301757
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
1157 AM MDT WED SEP 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1156 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 NE RUPERT 42.63N 113.66W
09/30/2009 M0.50 INCH MINIDOKA ID TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

VALLE

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KGJT [301749]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 301749
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1149 AM MDT WED SEP 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0653 AM NON-TSTM WND GST GRAND JUNCTION 39.09N 108.55W
09/30/2009 M59 MPH MESA CO ASOS

1032 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 18 NW MOAB 38.76N 109.78W
09/30/2009 M58 MPH GRAND UT ASOS

CANYONLANDS AIRPORT

1140 AM NON-TSTM WND GST SILT 39.55N 107.65W
09/30/2009 M59 MPH GARFIELD CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

PFRISBIE

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KPIH [301728]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 301728
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
1128 AM MDT WED SEP 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1125 AM HEAVY RAIN WESTON 42.04N 111.98W
09/30/2009 E0.40 INCH FRANKLIN ID CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

VALLE

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 301703
SWODY2
SPC AC 301701

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1201 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2009

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OZARK
PLATEAU/ERN SRN PLNS EWD INTO THE MID-MS RVR VLY/MID-SOUTH...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG WRN STATES MID-LVL WAVE WILL TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE PLNS AND
CLOSE INTO A LOW OVER THE CORN BELT BY THU EVE. A 70-90 KT H5 JET
WILL EVOLVE FROM THE GRT BASIN INTO THE SRN PLNS/OZARKS DURING THE
PD. IN THE LWR-LVLS...A LOW OVER THE MID-MO RVR VLY WILL DEEPEN
OVER NWRN IA/SWRN MN THU AFTN/NIGHT. A STRONG CDFNT TRAILING THIS
LOW WILL SWEEP ESE ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS AND THE OZARKS REGION
DURING THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE LWR OH RVR VLY...MID-SOUTH
AND CNTRL TX BY THE END OF THE PD. THE FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR PSBL SVR TSTMS THU AFTN/NIGHT.

...LWR MO/MID-MS RVR VLYS SWD TO THE WRN GULF CSTL AREA...
STRONG LOW/MID-LVL THETA-E ADVECTION COURTESY OF A 40-50 KT SSWLY
LLJ WILL LIKELY DRIVE A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND ELEVATED
CONVECTION EARLY THU MORNING FROM SWRN MN SWD INTO THE OZARK
PLATEAU. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRANSLATE ENE DURING THE AFTN INTO THE
UPR MS VLY AND MIDWEST.

ATTENTION WILL THEN FOCUS FARTHER W FOR SVR POTENTIAL AFT 18Z.
STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL PROBABLY DRIVE A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS EAST OF THE CDFNT...ESP FROM THE OZARKS NWD.
THIS WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION ACROSS IA AND NRN MO WITH STRONGER
INSTABILITY FROM CNTRL/SRN MO SWWD INTO ERN OK...AR AND NERN TX. BY
MID-AFTN...MLCAPES SHOULD RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDRED J/KG IN SRN IA TO
2000 J/KG OVER ERN OK...WRN AR AND NERN TX.

SFC-BASED TSTM INITIATION IS LIKELY ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF
THE CDFNT EARLY IN THE AFTN FROM SRN IA INTO NRN MO. A SUBSEQUENT
BACKBUILDING/AND OR NEW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED SW INTO THE WRN
OZARK PLATEAU AND CNTRL OK 18-21Z AS THE SRN PERIPHERY OF LARGER
SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SPREADS EWD. WHILE STORMS ALONG THE NRN PORTIONS
OF THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE ISOLD HAIL/DMGG WINDS...HIGHEST SVR
POTENTIAL WILL EVOLVE FROM SRN MO SWWD INTO AR...ERN OK AND NERN TX.
HERE...MORE ROBUST SFC-BASED INSTABILITY AND DECENT MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES COUPLED WITH INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /40-50 KTS/ WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SVR STORMS. INITIAL STORMS MAY BE
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLD TORNADOES...BUT ANTICIPATED
SPEED OF FRONT...THE TEMPORAL BACKING OF THE MID-LVL FLOW AND
MAGNITUDE OF FORCING WILL RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO A COMPLEX LINEAR
MCS AS STORMS MATURE. DMGG WINDS WILL BECOME MORE OF A THREAT WITH
TIME DURING THE EVENING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AS MAIN PORTIONS OF THE
70-90 KT WLY MID-LVL JET PUNCHES EWD ACROSS THE FRONT.

SVR THREATS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL
BECOME LESS WITH EWD EXTENT. LLVL MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE STRONGEST
ACROSS ERN TX INTO THE MS DELTA REGION. BUT...SURGING NATURE TO THE
CDFNT AND THE FACT THAT STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO
TURN MORE NE TOWARD THE LWR OH VLY ARGUE THAT STORMS ALONG WRN
PORTIONS OF THE FRONT MAY BECOME UNDERCUT AND LIMIT SVR THREATS TO
ISOLD HAIL AND/OR DMGG WIND GUSTS.

..RACY.. 09/30/2009

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KBOI [301702]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOI 301702
LSRBOI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1102 AM MDT WED SEP 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1022 AM NON-TSTM WND GST JEROME 42.73N 114.52W
09/30/2009 M48.00 MPH JEROME ID ASOS

POST COLD FRONTAL WIND GUST FROM 240 DEGREES OF 48 MPH
THIS MORNING AND FROM 260 DEGREES AT 56 MPH AT 1022 AM.

1005 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 9 ESE HAZELTON 42.57N 113.97W
09/30/2009 M45.00 MPH JEROME ID MESONET

WIND NORTH 29G45 MPH AT ITD10 RIDGEWAY...4400 FT MSL.

1004 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 E TWIN FALLS 42.57N 114.39W
09/30/2009 M53.00 MPH TWIN FALLS ID MESONET

HANSEN BRIDGE PEAK WIND GUST FROM THE WSW. WINDS 819-AM
UP THROUGH 1004 AM HAVE BEEN MAINLY FROM THE WSW AT 26-34
GUSTING 44-53 MPH. SITE IS ITD09 ELEVATION 3999 FT MSL.

0907 AM NON-TSTM WND GST TWIN FALLS 42.56N 114.46W
09/30/2009 M46.00 MPH TWIN FALLS ID ASOS

POST COLD FRONTAL WIND GUST FROM 260 DEGREES.

&&
A POWER OUTAGE OF UNKNOWN CAUSE LISTED BY IDAHO POWER AS OF 1030 AM
IN THE TWIN FALLS SERVICE AREA AFFECTING 68 CUSTOMERS.
$$

VMILLS

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KHNX [301641]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 301641
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
940 AM PDT WED SEP 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1013 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ENE KEENE 35.25N 118.60W
09/29/2009 M40 MPH KERN CA MESONET

SUSTAINED WIND OF 30 MPH AT HART FLAT.

0733 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NNW GRAPEVINE 34.96N 118.94W
09/29/2009 M35 MPH KERN CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

SUSTAINED WIND OF 32 MPH AT GRAPEVINE CHP STATION. ALSO
MEASURED 30 MPH WIND WITH 35 MPH GUST AT 1943 PDT.

&&

$$

BSO

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KVEF [301623]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 301623
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
923 AM PDT WED SEP 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 AM NON-TSTM WND GST DESERT NWR RAWS 36.58N 115.14W
09/30/2009 M75 MPH CLARK NV MESONET

DESERT NWR RAWS RECORDED A 75 MPH WIND GUST FROM THE WEST
SOUTHWEST.

&&

$$

EL

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 301612
SWODY1
SPC AC 301609

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1109 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2009

VALID 301630Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
STRONG/COLD TROUGH CONTINUES EWD ACROSS ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
TONIGHT. RATHER COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN WITH THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT
FROM WRN WY SWD THRU ERN UT INTO NRN AZ. IN RESPONSE TO ONGOING
VIGOROUS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ACTIVE BAND
OF CONVECTION/SURFACE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED SWD FROM E OF RWL TO WRN
CO THIS MORNING...ACCOMPANIED BY WINDS TO NEAR SVR LEVELS.

A RATHER DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WY EXPECTED TO
CONSOLIDATE INTO A CENTER TO LEE OF CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MOVE EWD
TONIGHT ALONG KS/NE BORDER. SLY LOW LEVEL JET HIGH PLAINS WILL
INCREASE TO 60KT OR GREATER TONIGHT AS TROUGH AND 70-80KT MID LEVEL
JET APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

GULF MOISTURE RAPIDLY RETURNING FROM SRN PLAINS AND IN CONCERT WITH
A STEEP EML SPREADING EWD WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE CONDITIONAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE PRIMARY CAVEAT WILL BE THE
SUFFICIENT WEAKENING OF THE CURRENT STRONG CAP TO ALLOW SURFACE
BASED STORM INITIATION.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY THREAT INTO THE EVENING WILL BE WITH
THE STRONG ASCENT AND COLD ADVECTION THAT IS FORCING THE CURRENT
ACTIVE CONVECTION CENTRAL ROCKIES AS IT ROTATES NEWD INTO HIGH
PLAINS OF NEB/SWRN SD. WHILE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED THE
COMBINATION OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES...DCAPES OF 1000 J/KG OR
GREATER AND 50KT OF SHEAR...SUPPORTS WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WITH
STORMS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FURTHER S ALONG THE DRY LINE WHICH SETS UP THRU WRN KS INTO TX
PANHANDLE...THE CAP WILL WEAKEN WITH STRONG HEATING...BUT MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE LIKELY WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT INHIBITION
TO PRECLUDE STORM INITIATION. HAVE THUS REDUCED SOME THE THREAT OF
SEVERE STORM COVERAGE IN KS THRU THE EVENING. HOWEVER WITH THE
SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...ANY STORM THAT IS
ABLE TO FORM OFF THE DRY LINE COULD BECOME QUICKLY SEVERE WITH A
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

OVERNIGHT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND POTENTIAL SEVERITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AGAIN THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...HOWEVER A MORE ORGANIZED WIND DAMAGE
THREAT COULD SPREAD EWD ACROSS NE WHERE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE
GREATEST AHEAD AND N OF THE TRACK OF SURFACE LOW.

...CENTRAL ROCKIES...
WITH THE COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING WRN CO...POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST THRU THE AFTERNOON. STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG UPPER JET WILL ENHANCE WIND POTENTIAL WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS VICINITY AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

..HALES/JEWELL.. 09/30/2009

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KHNX [301538]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 301538
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
838 AM PDT WED SEP 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0927 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 ENE MOJAVE 35.06N 118.15W
09/29/2009 M52 MPH KERN CA MESONET

SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 2117 THRU 2147 PDT MEASURED AT 32 TO
36 MPH WITH WIND GUSTS FROM 46 TO 52 MPH

&&

$$

BSO

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KPIH [301517]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 301517
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
917 AM MDT WED SEP 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0915 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 W REXBURG 43.83N 111.80W
09/30/2009 M0.38 INCH MADISON ID TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

VALLE

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KPIH [301447]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 301447
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
847 AM MDT WED SEP 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0845 AM SNOW 1 SW POCATELLO 42.87N 112.48W
09/30/2009 E1.0 INCH BANNOCK ID NWS EMPLOYEE

1 INCH OF SNOW ON WEST BENCH OF POCATELLO

&&

$$

VALLE

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KPIH [301409]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 301409
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
809 AM MDT WED SEP 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0808 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 SSE POCATELLO 42.83N 112.43W
09/30/2009 E0.58 INCH BANNOCK ID TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

VALLE

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KPIH [301346]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 301346
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
746 AM MDT WED SEP 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0744 AM SNOW 3 N INKOM 42.84N 112.25W
09/30/2009 M1.0 INCH BANNOCK ID TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

VALLE

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KSLC [301300]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KSLC 301300
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
657 AM MDT WED SEP 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 AM NON-TSTM WND GST ALTA 40.57N 111.64W
09/30/2009 M67 MPH SALT LAKE UT MESONET

CENTRAL WASATCH PEAKS - 11066 FT

1200 AM NON-TSTM WND GST SNYDERVILLE 40.69N 111.59W
09/30/2009 M62 MPH SUMMIT UT MESONET

CANYONS - CONDOR - 8999 FT

0215 AM NON-TSTM WND GST PARK CITY 40.63N 111.53W
09/30/2009 M67 MPH SUMMIT UT MESONET

PARK CITY - BONANZA TOP - 9200 FT

0910 PM NON-TSTM WND GST WELLSVILLE 41.59N 111.97W
09/29/2009 M59 MPH CACHE UT MESONET

SHERWOOD HILLS - 5039 FT

0815 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SNOWBASIN 41.20N 111.88W
09/29/2009 M77 MPH WEBER UT MESONET

OGDEN PEAK - 9570 FT

0830 PM NON-TSTM WND GST STOCKTON 40.46N 112.41W
09/29/2009 M59 MPH TOOELE UT MESONET

SOUTH MOUNTAIN - 6001 FT

0100 AM NON-TSTM WND GST KIMBALL JCT 40.75N 111.62W
09/30/2009 M59 MPH SALT LAKE UT MESONET

PARLEYS SUMMIT - 7040 FT

0858 PM NON-TSTM WND GST BURNTFORK 40.81N 110.07W
09/29/2009 M65 MPH DUCHESNE UT MESONET

CHEPETA - 12120 FT

1242 AM NON-TSTM WND GST VERNON 40.10N 112.42W
09/30/2009 M61 MPH TOOELE UT MESONET

VERNON - 5639 FT

1100 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SNOWBASIN 41.20N 111.86W
09/29/2009 M60 MPH WEBER UT MESONET

SNOWBASIN - WILDCAT - 7703 FT

1145 PM NON-TSTM WND GST WENDOVER 40.75N 114.02W
09/29/2009 M59 MPH TOOELE UT MESONET

WENDOVER PEAK - 5087 FT

1100 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SNOWBASIN 41.19N 111.87W
09/29/2009 M58 MPH WEBER UT MESONET

SNOWBASIN-STRAW TOP - 8999 FT

1215 AM NON-TSTM WND GST VERNON 40.13N 112.38W
09/30/2009 M67 MPH TOOELE UT MESONET

VERNON HILL - 5761 FT

0108 AM NON-TSTM WND GST MONROE 38.63N 112.06W
09/30/2009 M65 MPH SEVIER UT MESONET

SIGNAL PEAK - 8792 FT

0220 AM NON-TSTM WND GST MILLS 39.41N 112.05W
09/30/2009 M60 MPH JUAB UT MESONET

I-15 AT SEVIER RIVER NB - 4941 FT

0237 AM NON-TSTM WND GST GLENWOOD 38.78N 111.87W
09/30/2009 M59 MPH SEVIER UT MESONET

LOST CREEK - 7490 FT

0300 AM NON-TSTM WND GST SUNDANCE 40.37N 111.59W
09/30/2009 M76 MPH UTAH UT MESONET

SUNDANCE - ARROWHEAD - 8251 FT

0303 AM NON-TSTM WND GST ENTERPRISE 37.56N 113.72W
09/30/2009 M58 MPH WASHINGTON UT MESONET

ENTERPRISE - 5340 FT

&&

$$

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 301239
SWODY1
SPC AC 301236

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2009

VALID 301300Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS CONFIRM A LARGE AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH
ROTATING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THIS TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL ENSUE BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER
EASTERN CO. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH RAPID NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF
GULF MOISTURE FROM TX INTO WESTERN KS. A NARROW AXIS OF AT LEAST
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE
SURFACE DRYLINE FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWEST NEB/NORTHEAST
CO. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A RATHER STRONG CAP WILL BE IN
PLACE TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE. HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING AND
MOISTENING IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE DRYLINE APPEARS LIKELY TO RESULT IN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS BY 00Z. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50
KNOTS AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL STORM
STRUCTURES WITH A RISK OF LARGE HAIL /POSSIBLY VERY LARGE/ AND
DAMAGING WINDS. RATHER LARGE SURFACE T-TD SPREADS AND THE STRONG
CAP ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL LIKELY MITIGATE THE TORNADO THREAT.
STORMS WILL TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF KS/NEB THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF HAIL/WIND. EASTWARD PROGRESS
OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY AS STORMS
APPROACH THE MO RIVER OVERNIGHT.

...WESTERN CO...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE WESTERN CO PLATEAU AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF
HAIL IN STRONGER CORES...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS.
LACK OF GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED
SEVERE EVENT.

...WEST TX...
THE SURFACE DRYLINE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE TX PANHANDLE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE BIG BEND REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. A CAPPING
INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG THE DRYLINE TODAY. HOWEVER...FULL
SUNSHINE AND WEAK CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO DURING THE EVENING. ANY STORM THAT CAN DEVELOP WOULD
POSE A RELATIVELY BRIEF RISK OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

..HART/GRAMS.. 09/30/2009

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KVEF [301117]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KVEF 301117
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
417 AM PDT WED SEP 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 S MERCURY 36.66N 116.00W
09/29/2009 M62.00 MPH NYE NV MESONET

THE MERCURY A23 MESONET SITE REPORTED A PEAK WIND GUST OF
62 MPH FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST. WINDS OF 58 MPH OR
GREATER WERE RECORDED 145 PM AND 445 PM.

0234 AM NON-TSTM WND GST RED ROCK CANYON RAWS 36.14N 115.43W
09/30/2009 M71.00 MPH CLARK NV MESONET

RED ROCK CANYON RAWS MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 71 MPH FROM
THE WEST SOUTHWEST. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 43 MPH WERE ALSO
CLOCKED.

0334 AM NON-TSTM WND GST RED ROCK CANYON RAWS 36.14N 115.43W
09/30/2009 M72.00 MPH CLARK NV MESONET

&&

$$

STACHELSKI

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KVEF [300956]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 300956
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
256 AM PDT WED SEP 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0234 AM NON-TSTM WND GST RED ROCK CANYON RAWS 36.14N 115.43W
09/30/2009 M71.00 MPH CLARK NV MESONET

RED ROCK CANYON RAWS MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 71 MPH FROM
THE WEST SOUTHWEST. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 43 MPH WERE ALSO
CLOCKED.

&&

$$

STACHELSKI

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 300850
SWOD48
SPC AC 300850

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2009

VALID 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT THROUGH DAY 6 /MON. OCT. 5/...IN SHIFTING A CLOSED LOW
NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO CANADA WHILE A
SECOND/LARGE LOW DIGS SWD ACROSS THE WRN U.S. AND INTO THE GREAT
BASIN REGION THROUGH DAY 5. BROAD SWLY FLOW ON THE SERN SIDE OF
THIS FEATURE LEADS TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CO VICINITY DAY
5...WITH THE SURFACE LOW THEN PROGGED TO SHIFT SLOWLY INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DAY 6.

SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS POSSIBLE DAY 5 AND INTO DAY
6...PARTICULARLY INVOF THE KS/OK VICINITY AHEAD OF THIS LOW.
HOWEVER...WHILE SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE ADEQUATE FOR UPDRAFT
ORGANIZATION...QUESTIONS REGARDING THE DEGREE OF WARM SECTOR
DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL SUGGEST ATTM THAT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
MAY REMAIN LIMITED. BEYOND DAY 6...INCREASING DIVERGENCE BETWEEN
THE MODELS PRECLUDES ANY ATTEMPT TO ASCERTAIN THE DEGREE OF
POTENTIAL THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 09/30/2009

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KLCH [300824]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KLCH 300824
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
324 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM FLOOD ROANOKE 30.24N 92.75W
08/09/2009 JEFFERSON DAVIS LA CO-OP OBSERVER

CO-OP OVERSERVER IN JENNINGS REPORTED TOWN OF ROANOKE
RECEIVED 6 INCHES OF RAIN YESTERDAY AND ROADS IN ROANOKE
WERE FLOODED.

0400 PM FLOOD ROANOKE 30.24N 92.75W
08/09/2009 JEFFERSON DAVIS LA CO-OP OBSERVER

JENNINGS CO-OP OBSERVER REPORTED 6 INCHES OF RAIN IN
ROANOKE AND TOWN IS FLOODED.

&&

$$

JBRAZZEL

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 300732
SWODY3
SPC AC 300729

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2009

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. THIS PERIOD...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PROGGED TO
MOVE EWD ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AND APPROACH THE
APPALACHIANS LATE. THIS FRONT SHOULD AGAIN SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...AND ASSOCIATED/LIMITED SEVERE
POTENTIAL.

...COASTAL CAROLINAS WSWWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
-- LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES/TN VALLEY
REGION ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THIS REGION. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MAKE STEADY EWD/SEWD PROGRESS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS
SOME DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION OF THE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS OCCURS
DESPITE ONGOING PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER.

THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN
AFTERNOON INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY -- AIDED BY
MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL SHEAR/INSTABILITY
COMBINATION APPEARS ATTM TO SUPPORT ONLY ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS --
PARTICULARLY WITH STRONGER FORCING ALOFT TO REMAIN WELL N OF THIS
REGION. THUS...WILL INTRODUCE ONLY 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY THIS
FORECAST.

..GOSS.. 09/30/2009

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 300601
SWODY2
SPC AC 300600

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2009

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A PORTION OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS INCLUDING MO/AR AND ADJACENT AREAS...

...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE AN UPPER LOW -- CENTERED INVOF THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION
-- IS PROGGED TO LINGER/MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE PRIMARY
FEATURE ALOFT WITH RESPECT TO THE SEVERE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL BE A
SECOND TROUGH/LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS FEATURE IS
PROGGED TO DEEPEN WITH TIME...MOVING ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY REGION
THROUGH 02/12Z.

AT THE SURFACE...AN OCCLUDING LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD
OUT OF SERN SD/NERN NEB AND INTO IA...WHILE A STRONG/TRAILING COLD
FRONT SHIFTS SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS AND THE OZARKS
REGION THROUGH THE DAY...AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY
LATE. THIS FRONT SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...LOWER MO VALLEY SWD INTO NERN TX/NRN LA AND THE MID MS VALLEY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...IN AN ARC FROM THE NRN PLAINS SSEWD ACROSS THE MID MO
VALLEY...AND THEN SSWWD ACROSS ERN KS AND POSSIBLY INTO OK/N TX
INVOF THE SURGING COLD FRONT. STRONG SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT A HIGHER THETA-E BOUNDARY LAYER BACK
NWD...WHICH DESPITE ONGOING CLOUDS/SCATTERED PRECIPITATION SHOULD
ALLOW MODEST WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION INTO ERN KS/MO.

IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING WARM
SECTOR...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE PERIOD...WITH STORMS LIKELY TO EVOLVE INTO A RATHER INTENSE
SQUALL LINE BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON FROM ERN KS/MO SWWD INTO OK.
THIS LINE OF STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING QUICKLY EWD/SEWD...ACROSS
MO/ERN OK/AR/THE ARKLATEX REGION INTO EARLY EVENING.

AS THE UPPER LOW CROSSING THE MID MO VALLEY REGION STRENGTHENS...A
STRONG /ROUGHLY 80 KT/ SWLY MID-LEVEL JET STREAK IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS...NOSING ATOP THE COLD FRONT AND INTO THE WARM
SECTOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. RESULTING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT STORM INTENSIFICATION -- WITH SOME BOWING/COMPLEX STRUCTURES
EXPECTED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE LINE. THUS -- EXPECT STRONG/DAMAGING
WINDS TO BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH HAIL AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE LINE OF STORMS TO CONTINUE...THOUGH A SLOW
DECREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED. SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL COULD SPREAD E OF THE MS VALLEY...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR
S AS THE LA GULF COAST THROUGH 02/12Z.

..GOSS.. 09/30/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 300553
SWODY1
SPC AC 300549

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2009

VALID 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS...SRN PLAINS AND MID-MO VALLEY...

...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS/MID-MO VALLEY/CNTRL ROCKIES...
AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
MOVE QUICKLY EWD INTO THE ROCKIES TODAY. THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY-TILTED AS THE EXIT REGION OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET
BEGINS TO AFFECT THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. VERY
STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...RAPID MOISTURE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
A POWERFUL 55-70 KT LOW-LEVEL JET AND MODERATE DESTABILIZATION WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO THE MID-MO VALLEY.

THE LATEST GPS-PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA SUGGESTS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
IS STARTING TO INCREASE ACROSS WEST TX INTO SW KS. AS HEIGHTS FALL
TODAY ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...MOISTURE
ADVECTION SHOULD MARKEDLY INCREASE AS A LOW-LEVEL JET BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. A DRYLINE WITH A RELATIVELY
NARROW AXIS OF MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SET UP FROM THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE AND WRN OK NWD ACROSS WRN KS INTO WRN NEB BY LATE
AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEVELOPING A POCKET
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM DODGE CITY NWD TO NORTH PLATTE BY EARLY
THIS EVENING.

WELL WEST OF THE MOIST AXIS IN THE CNTRL ROCKIES...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE STRONGLY DIFFLUENT
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET. VERY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
AND SUBSTANTIAL LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT A MARGINAL THREAT FOR HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS IN WRN CO AND SRN WY. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EWD INTO SE WY AND NE CO BY 00Z WHERE MODEL
FORECASTS SHOW A NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS. IN SPITE OF SFC DEWPOINTS
ONLY IN THE 40S F IN NE CO...THE BROAD ZONE OF LIFT...STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED ROTATING STORMS WITH HAIL. AS THIS CLUSTER
OF STORMS MOVES NEWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
EVENING...INTENSITY SHOULD INCREASE AS THE CONVECTION GAINS ACCESS
TO THE MOIST AXIS IN WRN NEB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN WRN NEB AT 06Z
SHOW SUBSTANTIAL VEERING WITH HEIGHT BELOW 850 MB WITH 40-50 KT OF
FLOW AROUND 500 MB AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 8.0 TO 8.5 C/KM.
THIS SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT A SUPERCELL THREAT ACROSS WCNTRL NEB THIS
EVENING. DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...THE STORMS WILL BEGIN TO
INTERACT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET REACHING ERN NEB...WRN IA AND NE KS
LATE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ELEVATED WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN
THREAT.

SWD ALONG A DRYLINE THIS EVENING FROM NORTH PLATTE TO DODGE
CITY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
AND SHOW EVEN STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTING SOME
SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF
MODERATE INSTABILITY IS REALIZED ALONG THIS CORRIDOR.
HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL JET AXIS SHOULD
BE INCREASINGLY ISOLATED. IF A FEW STORMS CAN INITIATE FROM THE OK
PANHANDLE SWD ACROSS WEST TX THIS EVENING...LAPSE RATES APPEAR STEEP
ENOUGH AND VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH FOR MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..BROYLES/SMITH.. 09/30/2009

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