Wednesday, November 3, 2010

KKEY [040308]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 040308
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1108 PM EDT WED NOV 03 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1050 PM NON-TSTM WND GST RAMROD KEY 24.66N 81.41W
11/03/2010 E44.00 MPH LOWER KEYS IN MONR FL PUBLIC

A SOUTH WIND GUST OF 38 KTS...OR 44 MPH...WAS RECORDED BY
THE CITIZEN WEATHER OBSERVER PROGRAM - CWOP - SENSOR ON
RAMROD KEY AT 1050 PM EDT. THIS GUST WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
A ROBUST LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ORIENTED
NW-SE AND MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.


&&

$$

DDR

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KKEY [040216]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 040216
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1016 PM EDT WED NOV 03 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0908 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 10 SW KEY WEST 24.46N 81.88W
11/03/2010 M47 MPH GMZ075 FL C-MAN STATION

A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND GUST OF 41 KTS...OR 47 MPH...WAS
RECORDED BY THE C-MAN STATION ON SAND KEY LIGHT AT 908 PM
EDT. THIS GUST WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A ROBUST LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ORIENTED NW-SE AND MOVING TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST.


&&

$$

DDR

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KLIX [040157]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLIX 040157
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
856 PM CDT WED NOV 03 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0453 PM FUNNEL CLOUD ZACHARY 30.66N 91.15W
11/03/2010 EAST BATON ROUGE LA BROADCAST MEDIA

TWO SEPARATE REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS RECEIVED.

0500 PM TORNADO BAKER 30.59N 91.16W
11/03/2010 EAST BATON ROUGE LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

TELEVISION BROADCAST MEDIA IN BATON ROUGE REPORTED AND
BAKER POLICE CONFIRMED MINOR DAMAGE FROM A TORNADO THAT
BRIEFLY TOUCHED DOWN AND BLEW TIN OFF A ROOF. PHOTOS AND
VIDEO CONFIRMED A CONDENSATION FUNNEL CLOUD THAT REACHED
WITHIN 20 TO 50 FEET OF THE GROUND.


&&

$$

22

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 040040
SWODY1
SPC AC 040039

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 PM CDT WED NOV 03 2010

VALID 040100Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...ERN FL PANHANDLE AND NRN FL...

LINE OF STORMS EXTENDS FROM JUST WEST OF TALLAHASSEE SWD INTO THE
NERN GULF. THESE STORMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED
WITH AN MCV AND 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS
COULD ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY. THOUGH NLY-NELY FLOW AND WEAK COLD
ADVECTION EXISTS NEAR THE GROUND...A MOIST ELY-ESELY STORM RELATIVE
INFLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE AND THE MCV CIRCULATION SHOULD HELP
MAINTAIN THE LINE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN FL PANHANDLE INTO
A PORTION OF NRN FL. WEAK INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR MORE VIGOROUS
CONVECTION.

..DIAL.. 11/04/2010

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KLCH [032231]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 032231
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
531 PM CDT WED NOV 03 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0520 PM HAIL MOREAUVILLE 31.03N 91.98W
11/03/2010 E0.50 INCH AVOYELLES LA PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORT OF PEA TO MARBLE-SIZED HAIL


&&

$$

25

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KLIX [032224]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLIX 032224
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
524 PM CDT WED NOV 03 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0508 PM WATER SPOUT 2 SW DES ALLEMANDS 29.81N 90.45W
11/03/2010 ST. CHARLES LA OFFICIAL NWS OBS

OBSERVER AT MSY REPORTED WATERSPOUT BEGAN AT 1708 AND
DISIPATED AT 1716. WATERSPOUT WAS LOCATED OVER BAYOU
DESALLEMANDS.


&&

$$

DMANNING

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 031951
SWODY1
SPC AC 031950

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 PM CDT WED NOV 03 2010

VALID 032000Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

--- UPDATES ---
NARROW CORRIDOR OF MRGL SFC-BASED INSTABILITY CORRESPONDS TO SFC
MOIST AXIS ANALYZED FROM MOUTH OF MS RIVER NWWD TOWARD
HEZ...COMBINING WITH DIABATIC HEATING THAT ALREADY HAS TAKEN PLACE
TO YIELD MLCAPE 200-400 J/KG. ALTHOUGH CINH IS SMALL IN THIS
CORRIDOR...LITTLE OR NO CONVERGENCE IS EVIDENT AMIDST SFC WINDS
GENERALLY AOB 5 KT. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS
STILL MAY DEVELOP...CONVECTIVE LOW-CLOUD TRENDS ON VIS IMAGERY
APPEAR TO HAVE LEVELED OFF. DEEPEST TCU AND SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT
BETWEEN HEZ-IER...NEAR RELATIVE MIN IN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR COMPARED TO
AREAS SE OF BTR. SVR POTENTIAL THEREFORE APPEARS TOO
CONDITIONAL/WEAK TO MAINTAIN AOA 5% PROBABILITIES.

MEANWHILE...BANDS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EWD OVER GULF
ADJACENT TO WRN/CENTRAL PANHANDLE. A FEW TSTMS WITH THESE BANDS MAY
PRODUCE STG TO MARGINALLY DAMAGING GUSTS...THOUGH LACK OF MORE
ROBUST INSTABILITY PRECLUDES ORGANIZED SVR THREAT.

..EDWARDS.. 11/03/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT WED NOV 03 2010/

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER THE TX/LA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. THE PRIMARY
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL ALSO CONTINUE IT SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS
SOUTHERN LA/MS/AL AND INTO WESTERN FL BY THU MORNING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WHERE SUFFICIENT
VERTICAL SHEAR IS PRESENT FOR TRANSIENT ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF
GUSTY WINDS. WEAK SURFACE-BASED CAPE AND POOR LAPSE RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE THREAT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL PROMOTE MODEST
HEATING OVER SOUTHEAST LA. MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DESPITE WEAK LOW LEVEL DRY ADVECTION. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THIS POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN
THE STRONGEST STORMS. SEVERE ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED.

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 031723
SWODY2
SPC AC 031722

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT WED NOV 03 2010

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN FCST TO CONTINUE THROUGH
PERIOD...FEATURING RIDGING FROM NRN GULF OF CA REGION NNEWD ACROSS
NRN ROCKIES TO WRN CANADA. DEEP SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGHING WILL BE
DOMINANT E OF MS RIVER...REINFORCED BY STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED
MAX NOW DIGGING SEWD ACROSS MN/IA...AND UPSTREAM PERTURBATION NOW
OVER NW TERRITORIES. AS HEIGHTS FALL SIGNIFICANTLY OVER SERN
CONUS...IN ADVANCE OF THOSE SHORTWAVES...PERSISTENT DEEP-LAYER
VORTEX NOW OVER UPPER TX COAST WILL ACCELERATE EWD ACROSS NRN GULF
AS OPEN-WAVE TROUGH. LATTER PERTURBATION SHOULD REACH W COAST OF FL
BETWEEN 5/00Z-5/06Z AS WEAKENING BUT STILL
WELL-DEFINED...POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH...THEN MOVE EWD ACROSS ALL
BUT EXTREME SRN FL BY END OF PERIOD.

AT SFC...LOW NOW INVOF MS COAST IS FCST TO WEAKEN ALONG COLD FRONT
BY BEGINNING OF PERIOD...WITH FRONT LOCATED AT THAT TIME FROM
CENTRAL GULF NEWD ACROSS FL PANHANDLE TO CENTRAL SC...TO DEVELOPING
SFC CYCLONE OVER VA-TIDEWATER REGION. THESE LOWS MAY CONSOLIDATE
LATE IN PERIOD OFFSHORE VA/NC. COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH CENTRAL FL
PENINSULA IN 5/00Z-5/06Z TIME FRAME...MOVING THROUGH KEYS BY AROUND
5/12Z.

...FL...
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN AT LEAST TWO ROUNDS -- FIRST BEING
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION DURING MORNING AND SECOND BEING INVOF FROPA
DURING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FAVORABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
WITH SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEG F...ALONG WITH WEAK
CINH. DESPITE NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES FROM SFC THROUGH
TROPOSPHERE...STRENGTH OF MID-UPPER WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR -- E.G. EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF
40-50 KT. LIMITING FACTORS WILL INCLUDE LIKELIHOOD OF ABUNDANT
CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS PRE-FRONTAL PRECIP LIMITING DIABATIC SFC
HEATING INLAND...WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND VEERED SFC WINDS
THAT REDUCE BOTH CONVERGENCE AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. SHEAR ALSO WILL
DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT INTO SRN FL. WEIGHING THESE
FACTORS...PRIND SVR THREAT IS MRGL...PRIMARILY FOR WIND.
THEREFORE...WILL HOLD PROBABILITIES AT 5% LEVEL SPECIFIED IN PRIOR
DAY-2 OUTLOOK...BUT SHIFTED SOMEWHAT NWD TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER
RECENT PROGS OF FROPA.

..EDWARDS.. 11/03/2010

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KGSP [031649]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 031649
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1249 PM EDT WED NOV 03 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0602 PM TORNADO 4 SE LONG CREEK 34.74N 83.20W
10/26/2010 OCONEE SC NWS STORM SURVEY

TREES DOWN ALONG SPY ROCK ROAD AND FS ROAD 748-B WITHIN
SUMTER NATIONAL FOREST.

0616 PM TORNADO 4 NNE WALHALLA 34.82N 83.03W
10/26/2010 OCONEE SC NWS STORM SURVEY

TREES DOWN ACROSS FALCON/S LAIR SUBDIVISION AND GOLF
COURSE.

0622 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 W SALEM 34.89N 83.01W
10/26/2010 OCONEE SC NWS STORM SURVEY

TREES DOWN ALONG NORTH SIDE OF HIGHWAY 11

0622 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 WNW SALEM 34.91N 83.02W
10/26/2010 OCONEE SC NWS STORM SURVEY

TREE DOWN ALONG WHITEWATER POINT RD


&&

$$

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 031623
SWODY1
SPC AC 031622

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CDT WED NOV 03 2010

VALID 031630Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER THE TX/LA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. THE PRIMARY
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL ALSO CONTINUE IT SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS
SOUTHERN LA/MS/AL AND INTO WESTERN FL BY THU MORNING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WHERE SUFFICIENT
VERTICAL SHEAR IS PRESENT FOR TRANSIENT ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF
GUSTY WINDS. WEAK SURFACE-BASED CAPE AND POOR LAPSE RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE THREAT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL PROMOTE MODEST
HEATING OVER SOUTHEAST LA. MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DESPITE WEAK LOW LEVEL DRY ADVECTION. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THIS POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN
THE STRONGEST STORMS. SEVERE ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED.

..HART/ROGERS.. 11/03/2010

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KSEW [031554]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 031554
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
854 AM PDT WED NOV 03 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0840 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 ESE NORTH BEND 47.47N 121.74W
11/03/2010 M48 MPH KING WA TRAINED SPOTTER

EAST WINDS 25 MPH GUSTING TO AS HIGH AS 48 MPH. POWER
OUTAGES.


&&

$$

BBOWER

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KGRR [031531]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 031531
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1131 AM EDT WED NOV 03 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM SNOW TUSTIN 44.10N 85.46W
11/03/2010 U0.0 INCH OSCEOLA MI BROADCAST MEDIA

SNOW WAS REPORTED FROM 10AM TO 1015AM ACROSS NORTHERN
OSCEOLA COUNTY. NO ACCUMULATIONS REPORTED. PROVIDED BY 9
AND 10 NEWS IN CADILLAC.


&&

$$

HOVING

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2036

ACUS11 KWNS 031514
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031514
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-031715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2036
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1014 AM CDT WED NOV 03 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MS/SRN AL/COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE WRN
PANHANDLE OF FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 031514Z - 031715Z

CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
POSE A LOW-END WIND/HAIL THREAT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO. WITH THREAT EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIMITED HOWEVER...WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A N/S-ORIENTED QLCS EXTENDING SWD FROM A
MESOLOW JUST W OF MOB...WHILE A SECOND BAND OF STORMS EXTENDS ESEWD
FROM THIS LOW...INVOF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WHICH REMAINS JUST
OFFSHORE.

WARM SECTOR/OFFSHORE CONVECTION HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF TRANSIENT
ROTATION...WITH GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL/MERIDIONAL FLOW INCREASING
WITH HEIGHT PROVIDING AMPLE SPEED SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS.
HOWEVER...WITH THE OVERALL LACK OF INLAND INSTABILITY AND SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED NATURE OF THE ONSHORE CONVECTION...SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS
GENERALLY LOW. GREATEST SHORT-TERM THREAT EXISTS AHEAD OF THE
MESOLOW WHERE THE N/S QLCS HAS TAKEN ON A SLIGHT BOWING STRUCTURE.
HERE...ISOLATED STRONGER CONVECTIVE GUSTS -- OR EVEN AN
ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO -- WILL BE POSSIBLE. OVERALL
HOWEVER...GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE ONSHORE
ADVECTION OF THE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS...WHICH SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR.

..GOSS.. 11/03/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX...

LAT...LON 29778794 30438882 30998897 31388838 30858687 30058550
29378522 29148558 29928695 29678793 29778794

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KMOB [031442]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMOB 031442
LSRMOB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
942 AM CDT WED NOV 03 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0830 AM FLASH FLOOD 2 WSW PENSACOLA 30.41N 87.22W
11/03/2010 ESCAMBIA FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

PENSACOLA POLICE REPORTED THAT WATER COVERS SEVERAL
STREETS IN DOWNTOWN PENSACOLA INCLUDING SOUTH COYLE AND
GARDEN STREETS


&&

$$

KC

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KMOB [031428]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMOB 031428
LSRMOB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
927 AM CDT WED NOV 03 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0830 AM FLASH FLOOD 5 W PENSACOLA 30.43N 87.28W
11/03/2010 ESCAMBIA FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER COVERS THE ROAD ON MOBILE HWY AND WEST FAIRFIELD
DRIVE

0830 AM FLASH FLOOD 5 WNW PENSACOLA 30.44N 87.27W
11/03/2010 ESCAMBIA FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER COVERS THE ROAD ON WEBSTER DRIVE AT NORTHVIEW DRIVE


0830 AM FLASH FLOOD 3 WNW PENSACOLA 30.44N 87.24W
11/03/2010 ESCAMBIA FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER COVERS THE ROAD ON WEST FAIRFIELD DRIVE AND NORTH
PACE BLVD

0830 AM FLASH FLOOD 2 W PENSACOLA 30.42N 87.22W
11/03/2010 ESCAMBIA FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER COVERS THE ROAD ON NORTH SPRING STREET


&&

$$

KC

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 031254
SWODY1
SPC AC 031253

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT WED NOV 03 2010

VALID 031300Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SE LA AND VICINITY TODAY...
THE CLOSED MIDLEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER TX COAST WILL DRIFT
ESEWD/SEWD OVER THE NW GULF TODAY AND GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO MORE OF
AN OPEN WAVE TONIGHT...AS AN UPSTREAM WAVE AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. A WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TX MIDLEVEL LOW
WILL LIKEWISE MOVE ESEWD FROM SE LA TO THE NE GULF MEXICO BY
TONIGHT. PRIOR TO THE LOW MOVING OFFSHORE...A NARROW SURFACE WARM
SECTOR /BENEATH THE MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT/ WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER SE LA
AND NEAR THE MS/AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE COASTS. GRADUALLY COOLING
MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES...CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES...AND
DAYTIME HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION
AND THE GENERATION OF MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG OVER SE LA IN
PROXIMITY TO THE MIDLEVEL COLD POOL. DEEP-LAYER SLY VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES...WHICH
COULD PROMOTE HAIL AND PRODUCTION IN THE STRONGER STORMS TODAY.

..THOMPSON/STOPPKOTTE.. 11/03/2010

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KSEW [031230]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 031230
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
530 AM PDT WED NOV 03 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 AM NON-TSTM WND GST NORTH BEND 47.50N 121.79W
11/03/2010 M48 MPH KING WA BROADCAST MEDIA

SUSTAINED 25-35 MPH


&&

$$

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KSEW [031205]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 031205
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
505 AM PDT WED NOV 03 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0504 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 WNW ENUMCLAW 47.23N 122.06W
11/03/2010 M60 MPH KING WA TRAINED SPOTTER

SUSTAINED 30-35 MPH


&&

$$

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Subscription probe for WX-STORM - please ignore

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 030815
SWOD48
SPC AC 030814

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0314 AM CDT WED NOV 03 2010

VALID 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...

STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 11/03/2010

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 030630
SWODY3
SPC AC 030629

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0129 AM CDT WED NOV 03 2010

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...SYNOPSIS...

ASIDE FROM SHALLOW CONVECTION IN THE LEE OF LAKE MI
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE DURING THE DAY3
PERIOD AS DRY/STABLE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS OVERSPREADS MUCH OF THE
CONUS.

..DARROW.. 11/03/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 030525
SWODY1
SPC AC 030524

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 AM CDT WED NOV 03 2010

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SERN LA...
00Z NAM/GFS AND 12Z ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
DAY 1 UPPER FLOW REGIME...BUT HAVE TRENDED MORE SEWD WITH THE TX
CLOSED LOW TRACK DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...THAN WAS
INDICATED BY PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS. A DEEP CLOSED LOW LOCATED
ALONG THE MID-UPPER TX COAST AT 12Z TODAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD INTO
THE NWRN GULF BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
IT BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GOM BY 12Z THURSDAY.
THIS PROCESS WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFICATION OF A POLAR
BRANCH TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE TX CLOSED LOW...THE ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW IS NOW FORECAST TO LINGER ALONG THE SRN LA COAST INTO
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING ESEWD ACROSS THE NRN GULF AFTER 04/00Z.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR REMAINING INLAND...
AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO SERN LA UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SURFACE HEATING WITHIN RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND BENEATH 7-7.5 C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT
IN MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1000 J/KG ACROSS SERN LA. TSTMS SHOULD
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THIS PART OF LA IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
EXIT REGION OF A 50 KT SSWLY MIDLEVEL JET SPREADS ACROSS A CORRIDOR
OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE A
TORNADO THREAT...WHILE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
AROUND 40 KT SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS PRODUCING ISOLATED HAIL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFFSHORE IN THE
EVENING AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WARM SECTOR MOVES INTO THE GULF
IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING OFFSHORE FLOW WITH THE AMPLIFYING GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY SYSTEM.

..PETERS/SMITH.. 11/03/2010

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 030525
SWODY2
SPC AC 030524

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 AM CDT WED NOV 03 2010

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...FL...

MODEST HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FL PENINSULA EARLY IN THE
PERIOD AS A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY FORCING
THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO SHORTWAVE EWD. THIS LOW LATITUDE FEATURE
WILL COMPETE SOMEWHAT WITH CYCLOGENESIS THAT IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST...ULTIMATELY REDUCING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG TRAILING FRONTAL ZONE SWWD ACROSS NRN FL
INTO THE NERN GOM. AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT...A WEAK SFC
WAVE OR POSSIBLY JUST A PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE IS STILL
FORECAST TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA BY 04/21Z.
THIS PRE-FRONTAL FEATURE SHOULD ENCOURAGE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH INSTABILITY IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE
WEAK-MODEST...SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND SOME SUPPORT FROM
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE...A FEW STORMS MAY ATTAIN NEAR-SEVERE LEVELS OR
PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING
WINDS. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE
GIVEN THE MODEST INSTABILITY AND SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE.

..DARROW.. 11/03/2010

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KKEY [030519]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 030519
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
118 AM EDT WED NOV 03 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1234 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 SE ROCK HARBOR 25.01N 80.38W
11/03/2010 M39 MPH GMZ052 FL C-MAN STATION

A WIND GUST OF 34 KNOTS...39 MPH...FROM THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST WAS RECORDED AT THE MOLASSES REEF C-MAN
STATION. ANEMOMETER HEIGHT 52 FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL. THE
WIND GUST WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM A CLUSTER
OF HEAVY SHOWERS.


&&

$$

KASPER

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KJAX [030404]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 030404
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1204 AM EDT WED NOV 03 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1202 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 ENE ARLINGTON 30.36N 81.51W
11/03/2010 M3.51 INCH DUVAL FL NWS EMPLOYEE

NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTS 3.51 INCHES OF RAINFALL. TOTAL IS
OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS FROM 10 PM TO MIDNIGHT.


&&

$$

JHESS

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