MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2036

ACUS11 KWNS 031514
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031514
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-031715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2036
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1014 AM CDT WED NOV 03 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MS/SRN AL/COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE WRN
PANHANDLE OF FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 031514Z - 031715Z

CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
POSE A LOW-END WIND/HAIL THREAT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO. WITH THREAT EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIMITED HOWEVER...WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A N/S-ORIENTED QLCS EXTENDING SWD FROM A
MESOLOW JUST W OF MOB...WHILE A SECOND BAND OF STORMS EXTENDS ESEWD
FROM THIS LOW...INVOF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WHICH REMAINS JUST
OFFSHORE.

WARM SECTOR/OFFSHORE CONVECTION HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF TRANSIENT
ROTATION...WITH GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL/MERIDIONAL FLOW INCREASING
WITH HEIGHT PROVIDING AMPLE SPEED SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS.
HOWEVER...WITH THE OVERALL LACK OF INLAND INSTABILITY AND SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED NATURE OF THE ONSHORE CONVECTION...SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS
GENERALLY LOW. GREATEST SHORT-TERM THREAT EXISTS AHEAD OF THE
MESOLOW WHERE THE N/S QLCS HAS TAKEN ON A SLIGHT BOWING STRUCTURE.
HERE...ISOLATED STRONGER CONVECTIVE GUSTS -- OR EVEN AN
ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO -- WILL BE POSSIBLE. OVERALL
HOWEVER...GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE ONSHORE
ADVECTION OF THE WARM SECTOR AIRMASS...WHICH SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR.

..GOSS.. 11/03/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX...

LAT...LON 29778794 30438882 30998897 31388838 30858687 30058550
29378522 29148558 29928695 29678793 29778794

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