KBUF [300250]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBUF 300250
LSRBUF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1050 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0105 PM TORNADO CANANDAIGUA 42.89N 77.28W
08/29/2009 ONTARIO NY NWS STORM SURVEY

EF-1 TORNADO CONFIRMED BY NWS SURVEY. PATH LENGTH 1/2
MILE,WIDTH 35-50 YDS. MAX WIND SPEED 90 MPH. NO INJURIES
OR FATALITIES.

&&

$$

NIZIOL

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KCAR [300238]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KCAR 300238
LSRCAR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1038 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1015 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG COOPER 44.96N 67.44W
08/29/2009 WASHINGTON ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN.

1025 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG WESLEY 44.95N 67.66W
08/29/2009 WASHINGTON ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

A NUMBER OF TREES DOWN IN TOWN.

1025 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG CHARLOTTE 45.02N 67.25W
08/29/2009 WASHINGTON ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN IN TOWN.

1030 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG EASTPORT 44.91N 66.99W
08/29/2009 WASHINGTON ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

A NUMBER OF TREES DOWN IN TOWN. A FEW BOATS BROKE LOOSE
FROM THEIR MOORINGS. ONE BOAT DAMAGED.

&&

$$

JAH

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KCAR [300219]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KCAR 300219
LSRCAR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1019 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 PM FLOOD BAR HARBOR 44.39N 68.20W
08/29/2009 HANCOCK ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

PORTION OF WEST STREET CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

1000 PM FLOOD BAR HARBOR 44.39N 68.20W
08/29/2009 HANCOCK ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

INTERSECTION OF WEST STREET AND MAIN STREET FLOODED.

&&

$$

JAH

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KCLE [300144]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KCLE 300144
LSRCLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
944 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0505 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 N MOUNT BLANCHARD 40.94N 83.56W
08/28/2009 HANCOCK OH TRAINED SPOTTER

A FEW BRANCHES DOWN

&&

$$

KIELTYKA

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KPDT [300121]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KPDT 300121
LSRPDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
621 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0552 PM HAIL ENE ENTERPRISE 45.43N 117.28W
08/29/2009 E1.25 INCH WALLOWA OR TRAINED SPOTTER

0600 PM HAIL ENE ENTERPRISE 45.43N 117.28W
08/29/2009 M1.00 INCH WALLOWA OR TRAINED SPOTTER

1 INCH DIAMETER HAIL, COVERING GROUND TO A DEPTH OF 1
INCH IN PLACES. SMALL LIMBS BROUGHT DOWN.

0605 PM HAIL ENE ENTERPRISE 45.43N 117.28W
08/29/2009 M1.00 INCH WALLOWA OR TRAINED SPOTTER

GROUND WHITE WITH 1 INCH DIAMETER HAIL. SMALL BRANCHES
DOWN.

&&

$$

MLOHMANN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 300103
SWODY1
SPC AC 300059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2009

VALID 300100Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...EASTERN CO...
A FEW STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM ACROSS THE
EASTERN CO PLAINS...ALTHOUGH A GRADUALLY COOLING/STABILIZING
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN A DIMINISHING SEVERE RISK THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WITH MODEST INSTABILITY /500 J PER KG
MLCAPE/ AND EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE...STRONGLY VEERED WIND
PROFILES THROUGH THE LOW/MID TROPOSPHERE WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL MAINLY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...OTHER TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION/LOWER MS
VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE DELMARVA/NJ VICINITY IN THE SHORT TERM. SOME
SMALL HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
THIS EVENING...BUT OTHERWISE SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED IN
THESE AREAS THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

..GUYER.. 08/30/2009

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KSHV [300017]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 300017
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
716 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM TSTM WND DMG CENTER 31.79N 94.18W
08/29/2009 SHELBY TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

REPORT OF 40 MPH WINDS AND TREES DOWN ALONG WITH POWER
OUTAGES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CITY.

&&

$$

MMAYEAUX

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KCYS [300000]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 300000
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
600 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0540 PM HAIL LARAMIE 41.31N 105.58W
08/29/2009 M0.75 INCH ALBANY WY PUBLIC

&&

$$

MWEILAND

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KCYS [292359]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 292359
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
558 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0538 PM HAIL 1 NNE LARAMIE 41.32N 105.58W
08/29/2009 M0.50 INCH ALBANY WY TRAINED SPOTTER

MOST OF THE HAIL WAS SMALLER IN SIZE.

&&

$$

MWEILAND

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KBOX [292214]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KBOX 292214
LSRBOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
614 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0131 PM FLOOD FALMOUTH 41.55N 70.61W
08/29/2009 BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

FLOODED BASEMENT ON COTUIT ROAD.

0232 PM FLOOD DARTMOUTH 41.57N 71.00W
08/29/2009 BRISTOL MA AMATEUR RADIO

RUSSELL MILLS ROAD FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE.

0310 PM FLOOD NEW BEDFORD 41.66N 70.94W
08/29/2009 BRISTOL MA AMATEUR RADIO

RIVER ROAD NEAR SYLVIA STREET CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

0315 PM FLOOD DARTMOUTH 41.57N 71.00W
08/29/2009 BRISTOL MA AMATEUR RADIO

HORSENECK ROAD AND FIELDS IN AREA FLOODED OUT AND
IMPASSABLE. OLD WESTPORT ROAD FLOODED WITH 6 INCHES OF
WATER.

0337 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG EVERETT 42.41N 71.05W
08/29/2009 MIDDLESEX MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON WIRES ON FERNAL STREET.

0346 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG YARMOUTH 41.71N 70.23W
08/29/2009 BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON ROUTE 6A IN YARMOUTHPORT.

0355 PM FLOOD FAIRHAVEN 41.65N 70.82W
08/29/2009 PLYMOUTH MA AMATEUR RADIO

INTERSECTION OF GREEN AND BRIDGE STREETS HAD FLOODING
OVER THE SIDEWALKS.

0357 PM FLOOD WAREHAM 41.75N 70.72W
08/29/2009 PLYMOUTH MA AMATEUR RADIO

CRANBERRY HIGHWAY NEAR AUTO STORE IMPASSABLE DUE TO
FLOODING AND 2 LANES NEAR WALMART FLOODED WITH 6 TO 8
INCHES OF WATER.

0403 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG NANTUCKET 41.27N 70.10W
08/29/2009 NANTUCKET MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON HUMMOCK POND ROAD.

0405 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG TIVERTON 41.65N 71.20W
08/29/2009 NEWPORT RI AMATEUR RADIO

WIRES DOWN ON TUCKER STREET.

0406 PM FLOOD FALL RIVER 41.71N 71.11W
08/29/2009 BRISTOL MA AMATEUR RADIO

2.5 FEET OF WATER FLOODING STAFFORD SQUARE.

0412 PM FLOOD SANDWICH 41.76N 70.50W
08/29/2009 BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

STORM DRAIN OVERFLOWED AND FLOODED YARD AND BASEMENT OF A
HOME.

0428 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG DANVERS 42.57N 70.95W
08/29/2009 ESSEX MA AMATEUR RADIO

WIRES DOWN ON MAPLE STREET.

0437 PM FLOOD FALL RIVER 41.71N 71.11W
08/29/2009 BRISTOL MA AMATEUR RADIO

WEST BOUND LANE OF ROEBSON STREET FLOODED OUT.

0500 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG PEABODY 42.53N 70.97W
08/29/2009 ESSEX MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON EDYTH LANE

0536 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG SALEM 42.53N 70.87W
08/29/2009 ESSEX MA AMATEUR RADIO

TWO LARGE LIMBS DOWN ON TRADERS WAY AND ONE AT SALEM
COMMONS

0538 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG ROCHESTER 41.73N 70.82W
08/29/2009 PLYMOUTH MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON COUNTY ROAD

0543 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG WESTPORT 41.67N 71.10W
08/29/2009 BRISTOL MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN BLOCKING SOUTHBOUND LANE OF DRIFT ROAD

&&

$$

AED

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KPUB [292200]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 292200
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
400 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0345 PM HAIL CALHAN 39.03N 104.30W
08/29/2009 M1.00 INCH EL PASO CO PUBLIC

&&

$$

JCERU

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KPUB [292140]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 292140
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
339 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0331 PM HAIL 4 WSW CALHAN 39.02N 104.38W
08/29/2009 M1.00 INCH EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

MW

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KRLX [292138]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRLX 292138
LSRRLX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
538 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 E CLAY 38.46N 81.06W
08/29/2009 CLAY WV FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

WATER FROM BUFFALO CREEK IN SOME BASEMENTS IN COMMUNITY
OF DUNDON ALONG RT 11.

&&

$$

NW

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KBOX [292132]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KBOX 292132
LSRBOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
532 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0131 PM FLOOD FALMOUTH 41.55N 70.61W
08/29/2009 BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

FLOODED BASEMENT ON COTUIT ROAD.

0232 PM FLOOD DARTMOUTH 41.57N 71.00W
08/29/2009 BRISTOL MA AMATEUR RADIO

RUSSELL MILLS ROAD FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE.

0310 PM FLOOD NEW BEDFORD 41.66N 70.94W
08/29/2009 BRISTOL MA AMATEUR RADIO

RIVER ROAD NEAR SYLVIA STREET CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

0315 PM FLOOD DARTMOUTH 41.57N 71.00W
08/29/2009 BRISTOL MA AMATEUR RADIO

HORSENECK ROAD AND FIELDS IN AREA FLOODED OUT AND
IMPASSABLE. OLD WESTPORT ROAD FLOODED WITH 6 INCHES OF
WATER.

0337 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG EVERETT 42.41N 71.05W
08/29/2009 MIDDLESEX MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON WIRES ON FERNAL STREET.

0346 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG YARMOUTH 41.71N 70.23W
08/29/2009 BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON ROUTE 6A IN YARMOUTHPORT.

0355 PM FLOOD FAIRHAVEN 41.65N 70.82W
08/29/2009 PLYMOUTH MA AMATEUR RADIO

INTERSECTION OF GREEN AND BRIDGE STREETS HAD FLOODING
OVER THE SIDEWALKS.

0357 PM FLOOD WAREHAM 41.75N 70.72W
08/29/2009 PLYMOUTH MA AMATEUR RADIO

CRANBERRY HIGHWAY NEAR AUTO STORE IMPASSABLE DUE TO
FLOODING AND 2 LANES NEAR WALMART FLOODED WITH 6 TO 8
INCHES OF WATER.

0403 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG NANTUCKET 41.27N 70.10W
08/29/2009 NANTUCKET MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON HUMMOCK POND ROAD.

0405 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG TIVERTON 41.65N 71.20W
08/29/2009 NEWPORT RI AMATEUR RADIO

WIRES DOWN ON TUCKER STREET.

0406 PM FLOOD FALL RIVER 41.71N 71.11W
08/29/2009 BRISTOL MA AMATEUR RADIO

2.5 FEET OF WATER FLOODING STAFFORD SQUARE.

0412 PM FLOOD SANDWICH 41.76N 70.50W
08/29/2009 BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

STORM DRAIN OVERFLOWED AND FLOODED YARD AND BASEMENT OF A
HOME.

0428 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG DANVERS 42.57N 70.95W
08/29/2009 ESSEX MA AMATEUR RADIO

WIRES DOWN ON MAPLE STREET.

0437 PM FLOOD FALL RIVER 41.71N 71.11W
08/29/2009 BRISTOL MA AMATEUR RADIO

WEST BOUND LANE OF ROEBSON STREET FLOODED OUT.

&&

$$

KAB

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KPUB [292125]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 292125
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
325 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0250 PM HAIL FALCON 38.93N 104.62W
08/29/2009 M0.75 INCH EL PASO CO PUBLIC

&&

$$

MW

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KBOX [292118]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBOX 292118
LSRBOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
517 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0131 PM FLOOD FALMOUTH 41.55N 70.61W
08/29/2009 BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

FLOODED BASEMENT ON COTUIT ROAD.

0232 PM FLOOD DARTMOUTH 41.57N 71.00W
08/29/2009 BRISTOL MA AMATEUR RADIO

RUSSELL MILLS ROAD FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE.

0310 PM FLOOD NEW BEDFORD 41.66N 70.94W
08/29/2009 BRISTOL MA AMATEUR RADIO

RIVER ROAD NEAR SYLVIA STREET CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

0315 PM FLOOD DARTMOUTH 41.57N 71.00W
08/29/2009 BRISTOL MA AMATEUR RADIO

HORSENECK ROAD AND FIELDS IN AREA FLOODED OUT AND
IMPASSABLE. OLD WESTPORT ROAD FLOODED WITH 6 INCHES OF
WATER.

0337 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG EVERETT 42.41N 71.05W
08/29/2009 MIDDLESEX MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON WIRES ON FERNAL STREET.

0346 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG YARMOUTH 41.71N 70.23W
08/29/2009 BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON ROUTE 6A IN YARMOUTHPORT.

0357 PM FLOOD WAREHAM 41.75N 70.72W
08/29/2009 PLYMOUTH MA AMATEUR RADIO

CRANBERRY HIGHWAY NEAR AUTO STORE IMPASSABLE DUE TO
FLOODING AND 2 LANES NEAR WALMART FLOODED WITH 6 TO 8
INCHES OF WATER.

0403 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG NANTUCKET 41.27N 70.10W
08/29/2009 NANTUCKET MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON HUMMOCK POND ROAD.

0405 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG TIVERTON 41.65N 71.20W
08/29/2009 NEWPORT RI AMATEUR RADIO

WIRES DOWN ON TUCKER STREET.

0406 PM FLOOD FALL RIVER 41.71N 71.11W
08/29/2009 BRISTOL MA AMATEUR RADIO

2.5 FEET OF WATER FLOODING STAFFORD SQUARE.

0412 PM FLOOD SANDWICH 41.76N 70.50W
08/29/2009 BARNSTABLE MA AMATEUR RADIO

STORM DRAIN OVERFLOWED AND FLOODED YARD AND BASEMENT OF A
HOME.

&&

$$

KAB

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1982

ACUS11 KWNS 292055
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292055
NMZ000-COZ000-292300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1982
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL CO...E-CENTRAL/NERN NM.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 292055Z - 292300Z

ISOLATED SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS
ERN MOUNTAINS...AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS/HIGH PLAINS OF CENTRAL/SRN
CO...WITH MATURE STORMS MOVING GENERALLY SWD-SSEWD. STG-SVR GUSTS
AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.

BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...HEAT AND BECOME MORE
WELL-MIXED FROM FOOTHILLS EWD ABOUT 100 NM. LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR
ASCENT PRIMARILY WILL BE OROGRAPHIC/DIABATIC IN CHARACTER...KEEPING
BULK OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL CLOSER TO HIGH TERRAIN. SFC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SFC DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN FROM SLIGHTLY HIGHER
MORNING VALUES INTO RANGE FROM MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS CO PORTION
OF THIS REGION...BUT THESE TRENDS HAVE STABILIZED AS MOIST ADVECTION
OFFSETS MIXING. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DIABATIC HEATING OF THIS
AIR MASS...BENEATH ROUGHLY 8.5 DEG C/KM LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES...CONTRIBUTES TO MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG IN AND N OF AR RIVER
VALLEY. FARTHER S TAD/RTN REGION INTO NM...DRIER AIR MASS SHOULD
LIMIT MLCAPE TO AROUND 500 J/KG MOST AREAS. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL
REMAIN STG WITH NNWLY-NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND ESELY TO SELY WINDS AT
SFC...CONTRIBUTING TO EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES 35-40 KT IN SUPPORT
OF TRANSIENT SUPERCELL MORPHOLOGIES. HOWEVER...GEOMETRY OF
LOW-MIDLEVEL VERTICAL WIND PROFILES SUGGESTS TSTMS WILL BE UNLOADING
PRECIP INTO THEIR INFLOW REGIONS...WHILE 30-40 DEG SFC DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS INDICATE WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS AND POTENTIAL FOR
OUTFLOW DOMINANCE.

..EDWARDS.. 08/29/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON 35410563 35860486 36620481 37360508 38880512 39750528
39770484 39070402 38540366 37700346 36940349 36010352
35460379 34960416 34660465 34600558 35100565 35410563

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KPUB [292054]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 292054
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
254 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0220 PM HAIL 5 NE AIR FORCE ACADEMY 39.03N 104.80W
08/29/2009 M0.88 INCH EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

JCERU

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 291938
SWODY1
SPC AC 291934

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2009

VALID 292000Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
PRIOR OUTLOOK APPEARS REASONABLE IN HIGHLIGHTING A LOW-PROBABILITY
HAIL/WIND THREAT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION. MODEST
DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES OVER ERN CO/NERN NM...WITH STORMS NOW
FIRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT
PROVIDING AMPLE SHEAR...A FEW STRONGER STORMS MOVING SEWD INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL AND/OR
OCCASIONAL STRONG GUSTS.

..GOSS.. 08/29/2009

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2009/

...SYNOPSIS...
RELATIVELY QUIET SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
CONUS TODAY WITH DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOWS OVER THE PAC NW AND THE
NRN GREAT LAKES. IN WAKE OF TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ERN CANADA/GREAT
LAKES INTO THE MID SOUTH...SURFACE WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY
COOL/STABLE OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND EASTERN STATES.
EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE GULF COAST WHERE STALLED FRONT WILL
MAINTAIN INFLUX OF VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND
SUPPORT SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS. ADDITIONALLY...SELY UPSLOPE FLOW
ALONG WRN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE ANTICYCLONE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

...NERN NM/CENTRAL-ERN CO...
STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD SUPPORT MODEST
INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVELS DESTABILIZE THE
DEEPER COLUMN FROM HEATING AND INFLUX OF MID 50F SURFACE DEW POINTS.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHER TERRAIN DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL/SRN CO
INTO NRN NM DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN 25-35 KT NWLY
MID LEVEL FLOW ATOP SELY SURFACE WINDS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR A FEW MORE ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT STORM
CLUSTERS SHIFTING SSEWD OVER LOWER TERRAIN THROUGH THE EVENING.
PRIMARY NEGATIVE FOR MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT OFF HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
BE CAPPING EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AS EVIDENCED BY
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. REGARDLESS...EXPECT AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES
OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN WARRANTED ACROSS THE AREA.

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KBUF [291800]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBUF 291800
LSRBUF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0105 PM TSTM WND DMG CANANDAIGUA 42.89N 77.28W
08/29/2009 ONTARIO NY EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN, TREES INTO HOUSES,
SAIL BOATS ON THE LAKE PILED UP.

&&

$$

SAGE

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 291731
SWODY2
SPC AC 291728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2009

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW FIELD WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE U.S. DAY
2...WITH A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND A
LARGE RIDGE IN THE WEST. WITHIN THE WRN RIDGE...A CLOSED LOW IS
PROGGED TO DRIFT FROM THE PAC NW EWD INTO ID THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT -- ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE ERN UPPER
TROUGH -- IS PROGGED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS...AND SEWD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S./GULF COAST REGION...AS A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS SWD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. MEANWHILE...THE WRN FRINGE
OF THIS FRONT IS PROGGED BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN
HIGH PLAINS.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...
SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE
TO AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AS AIRMASS
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE DAY RESULTS IN 500 TO 1000 J/KG
MIXED-LAYER CAPE.

WHILE MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS BOTH THE SRN AND NRN HIGH PLAINS IS
PROGGED TO REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK...A BELT OF NWLY H5 FLOW NEAR 30 KT
ATOP THE LOW-LEVEL SELYS SHOULD YIELD A ZONE OF SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WHILE THE LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT
OVERALL CONVECTIVE INTENSITY...A FEW STRONGER CELLS APPEAR LIKELY --
THUS WARRANTING A CONTINUATION OF 5% HAIL/WIND THREAT ACROSS THIS
AREA.

...PARTS OF ERN ID/SWRN MT/NWRN WY...
DAYTIME HEATING BENEATH COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-12 TO -14 AT
H5/ ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW SHOULD RESULT IN MODEST
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS PARTS OF ID AND ADJACENT WRN MT/NWRN WY.
THIS WILL SUPPORT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. WHILE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE GREATER DESTABILIZATION...A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED/LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT FOR HAIL -- AND POSSIBLY A
STRONGER GUST OR TWO.

...COASTAL CAROLINAS WWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...
MODEST DESTABILIZATION INVOF THE SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT SHOULD
SUPPORT AN AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE INCREASE...FROM THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS WWD INTO E TX. THOUGH LIMITED BY THE GENERAL LACK OF
STRONGER INSTABILITY...BELT OF 30-PLUS KT MID-LEVEL SWLYS MAY
SUPPORT LOCAL STORM ORGANIZATION -- AND ASSOCIATED/LOW-END SEVERE
THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

...SRN NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION...
WHILE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ONSHORE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION...INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
MINIMAL. NONETHELESS...WILL MAINTAIN LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE
POTENTIAL FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD
WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION IF ANY
SUSTAINED STORMS CAN OCCUR.

..GOSS.. 08/29/2009

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KBUF [291727]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBUF 291727
LSRBUF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
127 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1220 PM TSTM WND DMG WEST SPARTA 42.63N 77.77W
08/29/2009 LIVINGSTON NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES AND POWER LINES REPORTED DOWN

&&

$$

TJ

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KOKX [291718]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KOKX 291718
LSROKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1249 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1142 AM FLASH FLOOD SUMMIT 40.71N 74.37W
08/29/2009 UNION NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

RT 24 WESTBOUND OF EXIT 8, JUST EAST OF SHORT HILLS MALL,
ALL LANES CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

&&

$$

JM

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 291621
SWODY1
SPC AC 291618

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2009

VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
RELATIVELY QUIET SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
CONUS TODAY WITH DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOWS OVER THE PAC NW AND THE
NRN GREAT LAKES. IN WAKE OF TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ERN CANADA/GREAT
LAKES INTO THE MID SOUTH...SURFACE WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY
COOL/STABLE OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND EASTERN STATES.
EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE GULF COAST WHERE STALLED FRONT WILL
MAINTAIN INFLUX OF VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND
SUPPORT SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS. ADDITIONALLY...SELY UPSLOPE FLOW
ALONG WRN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE ANTICYCLONE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

...NERN NM/CENTRAL-ERN CO...
STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD SUPPORT MODEST
INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVELS DESTABILIZE THE
DEEPER COLUMN FROM HEATING AND INFLUX OF MID 50F SURFACE DEW POINTS.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHER TERRAIN DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL/SRN CO
INTO NRN NM DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN 25-35 KT NWLY
MID LEVEL FLOW ATOP SELY SURFACE WINDS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR A FEW MORE ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT STORM
CLUSTERS SHIFTING SSEWD OVER LOWER TERRAIN THROUGH THE EVENING.
PRIMARY NEGATIVE FOR MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT OFF HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
BE CAPPING EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AS EVIDENCED BY
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. REGARDLESS...EXPECT AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES
OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN WARRANTED ACROSS THE AREA.

..EVANS/HURLBUT.. 08/29/2009

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KDTX [291614]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDTX 291614
LSRDTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1214 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1212 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 N LIVONIA 42.44N 83.37W
08/29/2009 M1.35 INCH WAYNE MI NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

$$

RKULIK

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KEWX [291514]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 291514
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1014 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0540 PM TSTM WND DMG 10 NW AUSTIN 30.37N 97.86W
08/27/2009 TRAVIS TX COCORAHS

30 FT MAPLE TREE... 12 INCHES IN DIAMETER FELL AND
DAMAGED VEHICLE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX0900045

$$

AKF

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KCHS [291508]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 291508
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1108 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1055 AM RIP CURRENTS ISLE OF PALMS 32.79N 79.79W
08/29/2009 CHARLESTON SC COUNTY OFFICIAL

LIFEGUARD REPORTED 1 RIP CURRENT AT ISLE OF PALMS.

&&

$$

REB

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KARX [291507]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KARX 291507
LSRARX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1006 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM HAIL 3 NW MATHER 44.18N 90.34W
08/28/2009 M0.75 INCH JACKSON WI CO-OP OBSERVER

TWO ROUNDS OF DIME SIZE HAIL AROUND 6 PM

&&

$$

DTJ

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KILN [291459]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KILN 291459
LSRILN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1059 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 N BYHALIA 40.48N 83.46W
08/28/2009 UNION OH POST OFFICE

TWO TREES DOWN ON CUNNINGHAM-ARBELA ROAD.

&&

$$

WOODRUM

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KOKX [291448]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KOKX 291448
LSROKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1047 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0750 AM FLASH FLOOD 4 WNW HACKENSACK 40.92N 74.12W
08/29/2009 BERGEN NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

FIVE CARS STRANDED IN WATER ON BROADWAY AT ZINK PLACE,
UNDER THE RAILROAD OVERPASS, RESCUE SQUAD CALLED TO
EXTRACT 1 PERSON FROM A CAR FILLING UP WITH WATER.

0819 AM FLASH FLOOD 6 NW HACKENSACK 40.94N 74.12W
08/29/2009 BERGEN NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

RESCUE SQUAD RESPONDING TO RESCUE PERSON TRAPPED BY FLOOD
WATER IN A GARAGE.

0825 AM FLASH FLOOD 4 NNW PARAMUS 41.00N 74.10W
08/29/2009 BERGEN NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

RIGHT LANE OF RT. 17 AT HOLLYWOOD AVENUE EXIT FLOODED,
AREA CLOSED OFF TO TRAFFIC BY PD.

&&

$$

JM

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KRLX [291446]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRLX 291446
LSRRLX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1045 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 AM FLASH FLOOD CLAY 38.46N 81.08W
08/29/2009 CLAY WV DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

WATER FROM SMALL CREEKS REPORTED CROSSING MANY ROADS,
INCLUDING AREAS ALONG ROUTE 16 FROM IVYDALE TO BICKMORE.

&&

$$

ARB

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KRLX [291440]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRLX 291440
LSRRLX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1039 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 AM HEAVY RAIN CLAY 38.46N 81.08W
08/29/2009 M4.10 INCH CLAY WV DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

HEAVY RAIN OCCURED FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

$$

ARB

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KRLX [291437]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRLX 291437
LSRRLX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1037 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 AM HEAVY RAIN CLAY 38.46N 81.08W
08/29/2009 E0.00 INCH CLAY WV PUBLIC

MUDSLIDES AND TREES ACROSS ROADS IN CENTRAL CLAY COUNTY,
MOSTLY EFFECTING ROUTES 4 AND 16.

&&

$$

ARB

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KOHX [291415]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOHX 291415
LSROHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
915 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM HAIL 2 SE BURNS 36.02N 87.29W
08/28/2009 E0.88 INCH DICKSON TN TRAINED SPOTTER

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED NEAR IRON HILL ROAD AND
INTERSTATE 40.

&&

$$

JWRIGHT

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 291255
SWODY1
SPC AC 291252

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2009

VALID 291300Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPR GRT LKS UPR LOW WILL ELONGATE NE/SW AS IT CONTINUES E INTO SW
QUEBEC EARLY SUNDAY...WHILE UPSTREAM RDG PERSISTS OVER THE SWRN
STATES AND COMPACT UPR LOW SETTLES SLOWLY SE ACROSS WA/ORE. SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NOW OVER ERN NC WILL ACCELERATE NEWD JUST OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC CST THIS AFTN. AT LWR LVLS...TWO COLD FRONTS WILL CONTINUE
SE ACROSS THE MS AND OH VLYS...WHILE A WARM FRONT MOVES N ACROSS ERN
NY AND WRN/SRN NEW ENGLAND.

...CNTRL RCKYS/CNTRL HI PLNS...
E/NELY LOW LVL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CNTRL RCKYS AND
ADJACENT HI PLNS AS SFC RDG CONTINUES TO BUILD S ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLNS. THIS FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MEAN MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPR 40S TO AROUND 50 F OVER ERN CO THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BENEATH 7.5-8.5 C/KM MID LVL LAPSE RATES...THE MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
AT LEAST MODERATE DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...WITH 500-1000 J/KG
SBCAPE POSSIBLE. SCTD TO WDLY SCTD STORMS LIKELY WILL FORM OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL CO AND MOVE SSE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NWLY
MID/UPR LVL FLOW ON FRINGE OF GRT LKS LOW. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE SVR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND MODEST
SHEAR SUGGEST THAT POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED SVR EVENT
WILL REMAIN LOW.

...ELSEWHERE...
SCTD STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN WARM SECTOR OVER THE SERN U.S. THIS
AFTN. STORMS MAY ALSO FORM ALONG COLD FRONT IN PA/NY. WEAK LOW TO
MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD MINIMIZE RISK FOR
ORGANIZED SVR WX.

..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 08/29/2009

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KARX [291250]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KARX 291250
LSRARX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
750 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM HAIL NW MATHER 44.15N 90.30W
08/28/2009 M0.75 INCH JUNEAU WI CO-OP OBSERVER

TWO ROUNDS OF DIME SIZE HAIL AROUND 6 PM

&&

$$

BOYNE

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KDTX [291049]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDTX 291049
LSRDTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
649 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0647 AM HEAVY RAIN WEST BLOOMFIELD 42.57N 83.38W
08/29/2009 M0.82 INCH OAKLAND MI TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL

&&

$$

SCONSIDI

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KCTP [291001]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KCTP 291001
LSRCTP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
559 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0930 PM FLASH FLOOD GLEN ROCK 39.79N 76.73W
08/28/2009 YORK PA EMERGENCY MNGR

GLEN ROCK FIRE DEPT BUILDING FLOODED. WATER RESCUE OF
NINE PEOPLE IN SPRINGETTSBURY TWP. SEVEN BASEMENTS AND
THREE MUNICIPAL ROADS FLOODED IN FIVE OTHER TWPS. 2
ROCK/MUDSLIDES REPORTED IN HOPEWELL TWP AND STEWARTSTOWN.
CARS STRANDED IN HIGH WATER IN CODORUS TWP.
GUNPOWDERFALLS CREEK OUT OF ITS BANKS IN SOUTHERN MANHEIM
TWP ALONG THE PA/MD BORDER.

&&

$$

STEINBUGL

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 290840
SWOD48
SPC AC 290840

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0340 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2009

VALID 011200Z - 061200Z

...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SEVERE THREAT AREA...

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A CLOSED LOW MIGRATING EAST OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES COULD CONTRIBUTE TO FORCING/ENHANCED SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
STORM CLUSTERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI
VALLEY DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF THE COMING WORK WEEK.
BUT...ANY SEVERE EVENTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY SEEM LIKELY TO REMAIN
RATHER MINOR...OR AT LEAST RELATIVELY LOCALIZED. MEANWHILE...THERE
ARE INDICATIONS OF THE POSSIBILITY FOR A MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIVE
INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AMPLIFICATION WILL
PROBABLY OCCUR WITHIN AN INITIAL ZONAL STRONG POLAR JET NOSING
INLAND OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. HOWEVER...THE SPREAD AMONG
THE MODELS AND MREF MEMBERS BECOMES QUITE LARGE CONCERNING THIS
DEVELOPMENT AND THE EVOLUTION OF THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN...WHICH HAS
A CONSIDERABLE IMPACT ON THE LOCATION AND RISK OF ANY REGIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK.

..KERR.. 08/29/2009

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 290725
SWODY3
SPC AC 290723

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2009

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE A CONTINUED WEAKENING OF MID/UPPER WIND FIELDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD...AS A SIGNIFICANT POLAR
IMPULSE LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE EASTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES... AHEAD
OF ANOTHER DIGGING TOWARD HUDSON BAY. BUT...FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN GENERALLY CYCLONIC EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD...WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT TO THE
ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS. MEANWHILE... WEAK...BROADLY
ANTICYCLONIC UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WEST INTO THE PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM OF A LARGE CLOSED LOW DIGGING OFF
THE NORTHERN PACIFIC/BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST ...SOUTH OF THE MAIN
BELT OF WESTERLIES. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME...A WEAKENING
MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

...NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
WHILE DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE MODELS EXIST...IT APPEARS A
POSSIBILITY THAT A NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
WARM ADVECTION REGIME COULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR CONSOLIDATING
STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN WYOMING INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA/WESTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY NIGHT. IF THIS
OCCURS...ENHANCED SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM
ACCOMPANYING THE CLOSED LOW MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF AN ORGANIZED STORM
CLUSTER CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL...PERHAPS STRONG SURFACE
GUSTS...IN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK TO
MODERATE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY.

..KERR.. 08/29/2009

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 290557
SWODY2
SPC AC 290554

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2009

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
DANNY...OR THE REMNANTS OF DANNY...LIKELY WILL RAPIDLY ACCELERATE
THROUGH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THIS
PERIOD...WITHIN STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN AN EASTERN
CANADIAN/U.S. UPPER TROUGH AND A STRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE.
WHILE THE RIDGE WILL IMPEDE THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT AN EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW WILL
LIFT AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE EASTERN CANADIAN
PROVINCES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAVE A WEAK AND WEAKENING CYCLONIC
MID/UPPER FLOW FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. AT THE
SAME TIME...A CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY DRIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...WITHIN BROADER SCALE
RIDGING ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
ROCKIES...INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.

...ATLANTIC SEABOARD...
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW...LIKELY TO
OVERSPREAD MID AND NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...COULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY BEFORE
WEAKENING/SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO
FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS...IN A LINGERING VERY
MOIST PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...PARTICULARLY FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA AND THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THIS
REGION IS STILL UNCERTAIN...AND EARLY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
SUBSIDENCE WARMING AND DRYING COULD PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

...SOUTH CENTRAL STATES...
MODELS ARE MORE CERTAIN ABOUT THE LIKELIHOOD OF A MID/UPPER
IMPULSE...PERHAPS A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED OR GENERATED CYCLONIC
VORTICITY CENTER...PROGRESSING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND CENTRAL GULF STATES SUNDAY. WITHIN THE PRESENCE OF A LINGERING
MOIST AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK TO MODERATE POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY...VIGOROUS NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA...BEFORE THE UPPER SYSTEM BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHEARED AS IT
LIFTS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTIVE THAT BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE
SOMEWHAT MODEST...WHICH SEEMS LIKELY TO RESULT IN ONLY SPARSE
COVERAGE OF ANY POTENTIAL DAMAGING WIND/HAIL EVENTS...IN THE
PRESENCE OF GENERALLY WEAK SHEAR.

...LEE OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...
SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING SUNDAY MAY BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO INTO NORTHEAST
NEW MEXICO. AND MODELS SUGGEST THAT MIXED LAYER CAPE WILL MOST
LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 1000 J/KG...DESPITE THE CONTINUING PRESENCE OF
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER... DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY REMAIN
AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS BENEATH 20-30 KT
NORTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW...AND THIS PROBABLY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
AT LEAST ONE OR TWO WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

...NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
GUIDANCE IS STILL SUGGESTIVE THAT ANYTHING BEYOND WEAK
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE RATHER LOCALIZED BENEATH THE COLD CORE OF
THE UPPER LOW ON SUNDAY. BUT...COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST ONE OR TWO STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS WITH THE RISK FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF EAST CENTRAL IDAHO/SOUTHWEST MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST
WYOMING.

..KERR.. 08/29/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 290438
SWODY1
SPC AC 290434

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2009

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN STATES
WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE SWRN U.S.. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL EVOLVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS WELL AS
OVER THE PACIFIC NW. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SC WILL EJECT NEWD AND
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD DURING THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE A
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM AN OCCLUDED LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES SWWD
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EWD AND
SEWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SERN STATES...WHILE A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE NERN U.S.. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS.

...CNTRL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS AREA...

NELY LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES IN POST FRONTAL REGION WILL RESULT IN
MEAN MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50
OVER ERN CO DURING THE DAY. THE MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDING
BENEATH 7.5-8.5 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT
LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WITH 400-800
J/KG MLCAPE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE SSEWD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NWLY FLOW ALOFT. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND
MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE
THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED.

...ELSEWHERE...

STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FROM THE SERN
U.S. INTO PARTS OF THE NERN STATES. HOWEVER...MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR INDICATE THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN LOW.

..DIAL/GARNER.. 08/29/2009

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KLCH [290413]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 290413
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1113 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 PM FUNNEL CLOUD CARLYSS 30.18N 93.37W
08/26/2009 CALCASIEU LA BROADCAST MEDIA

FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED AND PHOTOGRAPHED BY PUBLIC. REPORT
RELAYED BY LOCAL BROADCAST MEDIA.

&&

$$

LANDRENEAU

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