SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292055
NMZ000-COZ000-292300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1982
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL CO...E-CENTRAL/NERN NM.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 292055Z - 292300Z
ISOLATED SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS
ERN MOUNTAINS...AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS/HIGH PLAINS OF CENTRAL/SRN
CO...WITH MATURE STORMS MOVING GENERALLY SWD-SSEWD. STG-SVR GUSTS
AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.
BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...HEAT AND BECOME MORE
WELL-MIXED FROM FOOTHILLS EWD ABOUT 100 NM. LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR
ASCENT PRIMARILY WILL BE OROGRAPHIC/DIABATIC IN CHARACTER...KEEPING
BULK OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL CLOSER TO HIGH TERRAIN. SFC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SFC DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN FROM SLIGHTLY HIGHER
MORNING VALUES INTO RANGE FROM MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS CO PORTION
OF THIS REGION...BUT THESE TRENDS HAVE STABILIZED AS MOIST ADVECTION
OFFSETS MIXING. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DIABATIC HEATING OF THIS
AIR MASS...BENEATH ROUGHLY 8.5 DEG C/KM LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES...CONTRIBUTES TO MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG IN AND N OF AR RIVER
VALLEY. FARTHER S TAD/RTN REGION INTO NM...DRIER AIR MASS SHOULD
LIMIT MLCAPE TO AROUND 500 J/KG MOST AREAS. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL
REMAIN STG WITH NNWLY-NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND ESELY TO SELY WINDS AT
SFC...CONTRIBUTING TO EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES 35-40 KT IN SUPPORT
OF TRANSIENT SUPERCELL MORPHOLOGIES. HOWEVER...GEOMETRY OF
LOW-MIDLEVEL VERTICAL WIND PROFILES SUGGESTS TSTMS WILL BE UNLOADING
PRECIP INTO THEIR INFLOW REGIONS...WHILE 30-40 DEG SFC DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS INDICATE WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS AND POTENTIAL FOR
OUTFLOW DOMINANCE.
..EDWARDS.. 08/29/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
LAT...LON 35410563 35860486 36620481 37360508 38880512 39750528
39770484 39070402 38540366 37700346 36940349 36010352
35460379 34960416 34660465 34600558 35100565 35410563
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