KVEF [170133]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 170133
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
633 PM PDT SAT OCT 16 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0617 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 S KINGMAN 35.20N 114.03W
10/16/2010 MOHAVE AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

6-8 INCHES OF WATER OVER THE ROAD AT LOUISE AVE AND
STOCKTON HILL RD IN KINGMAN AZ.

&&

$$

JJACQUES

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 170052
SWODY1
SPC AC 170050

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 PM CDT SAT OCT 16 2010

VALID 170100Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF AZ...INVOF THE
WEAK UPPER LOW LINGERING OVER NWRN MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO ONGOING NWWD ACROSS SRN NV AND SRN/CENTRAL CA -- WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE ACROSS CENTRAL CA AS THE OFFSHORE UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST.

ELSEWHERE...A FEW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF NRN ME AS THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC.

..GOSS.. 10/17/2010

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KBOX [162349]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KBOX 162349
LSRBOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
748 PM EDT SAT OCT 16 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1018 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG HANCOCK 42.97N 71.98W
10/16/2010 HILLSBOROUGH NH AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON RTE 137 NEAR MIDDLE ROAD

1027 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG BOSTON 42.32N 71.07W
10/16/2010 SUFFOLK MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON CAR ON JAMAICA PLAIN PARKWAY AND POND STREET

1053 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG MARBLEHEAD 42.48N 70.87W
10/16/2010 ESSEX MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON MAPLE STREET

1114 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG WINCHESTER 42.78N 72.38W
10/16/2010 CHESHIRE NH AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON BIRCH HIIL ROAD

1134 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG WORCESTER 42.27N 71.81W
10/16/2010 WORCESTER MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON WIRES

1149 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG JAFFREY 42.81N 72.02W
10/16/2010 CHESHIRE NH AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON DUBLIN ROAD

1200 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG HARTFORD 41.77N 72.68W
10/16/2010 HARTFORD CT LAW ENFORCEMENT

*** 3 INJ *** LARGE BRANCH FELL ONTO 3 PEOPLE AT
ELIZABETH PARK

1209 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG FRANKLIN 42.09N 71.39W
10/16/2010 NORFOLK MA PUBLIC

TREE DOWN ON LINCOLN STREET

1220 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG WEARE 43.10N 71.73W
10/16/2010 HILLSBOROUGH NH AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON RTE 114

0100 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG LEVERETT 42.45N 72.50W
10/16/2010 FRANKLIN MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON DUDLEYVILLE ROAD

0103 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG WESTERLY 41.37N 71.81W
10/16/2010 WASHINGTON RI AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON SPRINGBROOK ROAD

0205 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG TYNGSBORO 42.68N 71.42W
10/16/2010 MIDDLESEX MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON CAR ON MIDDLESEX ROAD

0240 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG RANDOLPH 42.18N 71.05W
10/16/2010 NORFOLK MA TRAINED SPOTTER

TREE DOWN AT ALLEN STREET ENTRANCE TO BELCHER PARK

0639 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG SPRINGFIELD 42.12N 72.54W
10/16/2010 HAMPDEN MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE AND WIRES DOWN ON CROWN STREET

&&

$$

NBELK

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KBOX [162232]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KBOX 162232
LSRBOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
632 PM EDT SAT OCT 16 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1018 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG HANCOCK 42.97N 71.98W
10/16/2010 HILLSBOROUGH NH AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON RTE 137 NEAR MIDDLE ROAD

1027 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG BOSTON 42.32N 71.07W
10/16/2010 SUFFOLK MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON CAR ON JAMAICA PLAIN PARKWAY AND POND STREET

1053 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG MARBLEHEAD 42.48N 70.87W
10/16/2010 ESSEX MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON MAPLE STREET

1114 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG WINCHESTER 42.78N 72.38W
10/16/2010 CHESHIRE NH AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON BIRCH HIIL ROAD

1149 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG JAFFREY 42.81N 72.02W
10/16/2010 CHESHIRE NH AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON DUBLIN ROAD

1220 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG WEARE 43.10N 71.73W
10/16/2010 HILLSBOROUGH NH AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON RTE 114

0103 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG WESTERLY 41.37N 71.81W
10/16/2010 WASHINGTON RI AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON SPRINGBROOK ROAD

0200 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG RANDOLPH 42.18N 71.05W
10/16/2010 NORFOLK MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN AT ALLEN STREET ENTRANCE TO BELCHER PARK

&&

$$

NBELK

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 161945
SWODY1
SPC AC 161944

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0244 PM CDT SAT OCT 16 2010

VALID 162000Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...DISCUSSION...

PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS VALID WITH WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TODAY FROM AZ AND SRN NM WITH MORE SPARSE
COVERAGE FARTHER NORTH OVER CNTRL CA AND THE MOUNTAINS OF ID AND SW
MT.

..DIAL.. 10/16/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CDT SAT OCT 16 2010/

ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF CONUS WITH ONLY THE INTERIOR WEST
HAVING ANY POTENTIAL FOR A THUNDERSTORM THREAT. WHILE LAPSE RATES
WILL BE RATHER STEEP THE MINIMAL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY. UPPER LOW S OF AZ IS WEAKENING WITH
STORMS SRN AZ TODAY GENERALLY WEAKER THAN ON FRI. OTRW ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
GREATEST PROBABILITY MOUNTAINS OF SRN ID AND ACROSS CENTRAL CA AHEAD
OF WEAK APPROACHING TROUGH.

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KBOX [161825]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KBOX 161825
LSRBOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
225 PM EDT SAT OCT 16 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1018 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG HANCOCK 42.97N 71.98W
10/16/2010 HILLSBOROUGH NH AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON RTE 137 NEAR MIDDLE ROAD

1027 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG BOSTON 42.32N 71.07W
10/16/2010 SUFFOLK MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON CAR ON JAMAICA PLAIN PARKWAY AND POND STREET

1053 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG MARBLEHEAD 42.48N 70.87W
10/16/2010 ESSEX MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON MAPLE STREET

1114 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG WINCHESTER 42.78N 72.38W
10/16/2010 CHESHIRE NH AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON BIRCH HIIL ROAD

1149 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG JAFFREY 42.81N 72.02W
10/16/2010 CHESHIRE NH AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON DUBLIN ROAD

1220 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG WEARE 43.10N 71.73W
10/16/2010 HILLSBOROUGH NH AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON RTE 114

0103 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG WESTERLY 41.37N 71.81W
10/16/2010 WASHINGTON RI AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON SPRINGBROOK ROAD

&&

$$

WSIMPSON

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KBOX [161718]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KBOX 161718
LSRBOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
118 PM EDT SAT OCT 16 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1018 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG HANCOCK 42.54N 73.32W
10/16/2010 BERKSHIRE MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON RTE 137 NEAR MIDDLE ROAD

1027 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG BOSTON 42.32N 71.07W
10/16/2010 SUFFOLK MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON CAR ON JAMAICA PLAIN PARKWAY AND POND STREET

1053 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG MARBLEHEAD 42.48N 70.87W
10/16/2010 ESSEX MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON MAPLE STREET

1114 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG WINCHESTER 42.78N 72.38W
10/16/2010 CHESHIRE NH AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON BIRCH HIIL ROAD

1149 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG JAFFREY 42.81N 72.02W
10/16/2010 CHESHIRE NH AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON DUBLIN ROAD

1220 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG WEARE 43.10N 71.73W
10/16/2010 HILLSBOROUGH NH AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON RTE 114

&&

$$

WSIMPSON

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 161701
SWODY2
SPC AC 161700

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT SAT OCT 16 2010

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

WEAK CUTOFF LOW OVER NRN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO FINALLY EJECT EWD
THROUGH TX SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER TROUGH NEAR 135 W OVER THE
NRN PACIFIC THAT WILL MOVE ONTO THE CA COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
PRIMARY BELT OF WLYS WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE NRN
THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.

STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DIABATIC WARMING ALONG WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE AOB 500
J/KG. WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED TSTMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE SRN HALF OF
CA AND AZ WITHIN SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER
LOW. THOUGH DEEP INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES WILL SUPPORT
SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS...OVERALL THREAT WILL
REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY.

...SRN AND ERN TX...

PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL RETURN NWD THROUGH TX IN WAKE OF
RETREATING SURFACE RIDGE AND AHEAD OF WEAKENING SRN STREAM IMPULSE.
VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
TOO WEAK TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATION OF THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...AND LAYER OF WARM AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY PERSIST NEAR
700 MB. ANY CONVECTION THAT MIGHT DEVELOP WITHIN THIS REGION WILL
LIKELY BE TOO SHALLOW FOR LIGHTNING ACTIVITY.

..DIAL.. 10/16/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 161547
SWODY1
SPC AC 161545

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1045 AM CDT SAT OCT 16 2010

VALID 161630Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF CONUS WITH ONLY THE INTERIOR WEST
HAVING ANY POTENTIAL FOR A THUNDERSTORM THREAT. WHILE LAPSE RATES
WILL BE RATHER STEEP THE MINIMAL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY. UPPER LOW S OF AZ IS WEAKENING WITH
STORMS SRN AZ TODAY GENERALLY WEAKER THAN ON FRI. OTRW ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
GREATEST PROBABILITY MOUNTAINS OF SRN ID AND ACROSS CENTRAL CA AHEAD
OF WEAK APPROACHING TROUGH.

..HALES/HURLBUT.. 10/16/2010

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KBOX [161454]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBOX 161454
LSRBOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1054 AM EDT SAT OCT 16 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1018 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG HANCOCK 42.54N 73.32W
10/16/2010 BERKSHIRE MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON RTE 137 NEAR MIDDLE ROAD

1027 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG BOSTON 42.32N 71.07W
10/16/2010 SUFFOLK MA AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON CAR ON JAMAICA PLAIN PARKWAY AND POND STREET

&&

$$

WSIMPSON

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 161242
SWODY1
SPC AC 161240

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 AM CDT SAT OCT 16 2010

VALID 161300Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE PRESENT TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE UNITED
STATES...WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW AFFECTS THE SOUTHWEST REGION.
SMALLER-SCALE DISTURBANCES TRACKING ACROSS THE WEST WILL HELP TO
YIELD ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF AZ/NM/WEST
TX...CENTRAL CA...AND ID/MT/WY. IN EACH CASE...RATHER WEAK CAPE AND
LIMITED MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A RISK OR ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER.

..HART/ROGERS.. 10/16/2010

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 160846
SWOD48
SPC AC 160846

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 AM CDT SAT OCT 16 2010

VALID 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...
DAY 2-3 EVOLUTION OF MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE INVOF COASTAL CA...WITH
HEIGHT RISES TO ITS N...IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN REX PATTERN AT
LEAST THROUGH DAY-5/20TH-21ST...WITH QUASISTATIONARY TO SLOWLY
PROGRESSIVE CUT-OFF LOW INVOF NRN BAJA AND SONORA...AND RIDGING NWD
OVER CANADIAN ROCKIES. STG NERN PAC SHORTWAVES SHOULD BREAK DOWN
WRN PORTION OF RIDGING PATTERN THEREAFTER...RESULTING IN ENEWD
TRANSLATION OF LOW ACROSS NM TOWARD W TX. AS IS COMMON IN BAJA
CUT-OFF LOW SCENARIOS...OPERATIONAL PROGS AND MREF MEMBERS VARY
GREATLY ON TIMING OF THIS PROCESS AND EFFECTS ON MASS/THERMODYNAMIC
FIELDS DOWNSTREAM. MEANWHILE STG MEAN TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ACROSS
GREAT LAKES AND ERN CONUS...INDICATING POOR QUALITY OF RETURN-FLOW
MOISTURE AHEAD OF EVENTUAL EJECTION OF SWRN LOW. GIVEN THESE
CONDITIONS...BOTH POTENTIAL AND PREDICTABILITY OF SEVERE APPEAR TOO
LOW FOR OUTLOOK ATTM.

..EDWARDS.. 10/16/2010

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KBTV [160638]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KBTV 160638
LSRBTV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
238 AM EDT SAT OCT 16 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1022 AM FLOOD 3 NE WEATHERSFIELD CENT 43.41N 72.42W
10/15/2010 WINDSOR VT LAW ENFORCEMENT

ROAD WASHED OUT DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. SPRINGFIELD ASOS
REPORTS 3.21 AS OF 11 AM.

1130 AM NON-TSTM WND GST PLATTSBURGH 44.70N 73.46W
10/15/2010 M47.00 MPH CLINTON NY ASOS

1130 AM NON-TSTM WND GST COLCHESTER POINT 44.55N 73.31W
10/15/2010 M45.00 MPH CHITTENDEN VT UNKNOWN

COLCHESTER REEF

1200 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG AUSABLE CHASM 44.52N 73.47W
10/15/2010 ESSEX NY COUNTY OFFICIAL

TREE ON POWERLINES

1200 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SCHUYLER FALLS 44.63N 73.56W
10/15/2010 E0.00 MPH CLINTON NY COUNTY OFFICIAL

TREE ON POWERLINES

1200 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG SARANAC 44.65N 73.74W
10/15/2010 CLINTON NY COUNTY OFFICIAL

TREE ON POWERLINE ALONG ROUTE 3 WITH POWER OUTAGE
REPORTED.

0227 PM NON-TSTM WND GST BURLINGTON 44.49N 73.23W
10/15/2010 M43.00 MPH CHITTENDEN VT ASOS

0300 PM NON-TSTM WND GST KINGSLAND BAY STATE PAR 44.23N 73.30W
10/15/2010 M61.00 MPH ADDISON VT MESONET

DIAMOND ISLAND ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN

0350 PM NON-TSTM WND GST CUMBERLAND HEAD 44.72N 73.40W
10/15/2010 M45.00 MPH CLINTON NY TRAINED SPOTTER

0435 PM NON-TSTM WND GST CUMBERLAND HEAD 44.72N 73.40W
10/15/2010 M47.00 MPH CLINTON NY TRAINED SPOTTER

TREE KNOCKED DOWN

0620 PM FLOOD SPRINGFIELD 43.29N 72.48W
10/15/2010 WINDSOR VT EMERGENCY MNGR

AIRPORT RD IN SPRINGFIELD HAS BEEN CLOSED DUE TO ABOUT 2
FT OF WATER ON THE ROAD. AS OF 6 PM SPRINGFIELD ASOS
REPORTS 3.96 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR.

0624 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG PERU 44.58N 73.53W
10/15/2010 CLINTON NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN ACROSS CLINTON COUNTY, ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE COUNTY.

0930 PM FLOOD SARANAC 44.65N 73.74W
10/15/2010 CLINTON NY EMERGENCY MNGR

CLINTON COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS 25 FEET OF
DELISLE RD NEAR ROUTE 3 HAS WASHED AWAY.

1230 AM FLOOD ESSEX CENTER 44.51N 73.06W
10/16/2010 CHITTENDEN VT LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGH WATER ON ROUTE 128 AT WEED ROAD.

1230 AM FLOOD ESSEX CENTER 44.51N 73.06W
10/16/2010 CHITTENDEN VT LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGH WATER ON ROUTE 128 AT PETTINGILL ROAD.

&&

$$

MBH

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 160544
SWODY1
SPC AC 160543

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 AM CDT SAT OCT 16 2010

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO TREND TOWARD A MORE ZONAL CONFIGURATION
WITH TIME...AS THE UPPER LOW INITIALLY OVER ERN NEW ENGLAND WEAKENS
AND SHIFTS ENEWD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND ADJACENT WRN
ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...THE WEAK UPPER CIRCULATION OVER NWRN MEXICO
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY EWD/ENEWD TOWARD W TX.

ELSEWHERE...A FAST-MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW/FRONT ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT QUICKLY EWD ACROSS CENTRAL
NOAM...WHILE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE W COAST LATE.

PRIMARY AREA OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION IS FORECAST ACROSS AZ/NM AND
INTO FAR W TX...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
CIRCULATION. WHILE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE A DEEPENING
AFTERNOON SURFACE-BASED MIXED LAYER MAY YIELD CAPE SUFFICIENT FOR A
STRONGER CELL OR TWO -- AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
ISOLATED/MARGINAL HAIL OR WIND REPORT...ANY THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR
TO WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM.

..GOSS/GRAMS.. 10/16/2010

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 160509
SWODY3
SPC AC 160508

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 AM CDT SAT OCT 16 2010

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
PRIMARY UPPER-AIR FEATURES FOR THIS FCST WILL BE
1. CYCLONE OVER COASTAL CA REGION AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD...AS
DISCUSSED IN DAY-2 OUTLOOK. ALTHOUGH OPERATIONAL AND SREF PROGS
DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON LONGITUDINAL POSITIONING OF THIS FEATURE EITHER
JUST ONSHORE OR OFFSHORE...STG GEN CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE IS FOR THIS
FEATURE TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD TO SSEWD INVOF SRN CA COAST AS HEIGHTS
RISE TO ITS NW-N.
2. BROAD BELT OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT FROM NRN PLAINS ACROSS GREAT
LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND REGIONS...WITH SEVERAL
EMBEDDED/FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVES.

PRESENCE OF ERN TROUGHING AND OF LOW-LEVEL RIDGING OVER GULF COAST
REGION WILL PRECLUDE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN TO SUPPORT SVR E OF
ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR AGAIN THIS PERIOD BENEATH
COLD-CORE REGION OF UPPER LOW...AS WELL AS TO ITS NE ACROSS PORTIONS
GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN REGIONS. HOWEVER...WEAKNESSES IN BOTH
LOW-LEVEL THETAE AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST SVR RISK IS MINIMAL AT
MOST.

..EDWARDS.. 10/16/2010

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 160501
SWODY2
SPC AC 160500

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CDT SAT OCT 16 2010

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
NRN AND SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS -- NOW EVIDENT OVER N PAC INVOF
140W -- ARE FCST TO PHASE THROUGH DAY-1 PERIOD AND MOVE EWD TOWARD
PAC COAST THROUGH EARLY DA-2. CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THIS TROUGH NEAR CENTRAL CA COAST ROUGHLY DURING 18/00Z-18/06Z
TIME FRAME. SINCE 24 HOURS AGO...ALL AVAILABLE PROGS HAVE SLOWED
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM FOR SAME VALID TIMES LATE IN WHAT NOW IS
DAY-2 PERIOD. OPERATIONAL WRF/SPECTRAL INDICATE 500-MB CIRCULATION
CENTER STILL JUST OFFSHORE AT END OF PERIOD...WHILE SREF MEAN AND
MAJORITY OF INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS STILL PREDICT INLAND CENTER. GIVEN
PATTERN OF HEIGHT RISES EXPECTED TO ITS N...CONSENSUS OF OPERATIONAL
PROGS IS PREFERRED OVER THAT OF SREF FOR THIS FCST.

MEANWHILE...MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER NRN SONORA IS FCST TO
MOVE SLOWLY ENEWD ACROSS NM AND SRN HIGH PLAINS AND WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY. EXPECT FAST-MOVING TROUGH IN NRN STREAM NWLYS...FROM
NRN HIGH PLAINS AROUND 18/00Z ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY 12 HOURS LATER.
INITIAL LEE TROUGHING OVER SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SHOULD EVOLVE
INTO CLOSED SFC LOW INVOF SWRN KS LATE IN PERIOD...WITH WARM
FRONTOGENESIS TO ITS E ACROSS MO. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT GULF-COAST
RIDGING WITHIN POORLY MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR PASS SHOULD PREVENT
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN TO SUPPORT TSTMS OVER CENTRAL-ERN CONUS.

...WRN CONUS...
WIDELY SCATTERED AND MAINLY DIURNAL TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS
SIERRA NV REGION EWD ACROSS GREAT BASIN...BENEATH STGLY DIFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT...WHERE POCKETS OF FAVORABLE SFC MOISTURE AND STG
DIABATIC HEATING CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE IN 200-500 J/KG RANGE.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSTMS ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE SEWD OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM NRN AZ TO FAR W TX AMIDST MRGL MOISTURE BUT STEEP
LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...DISSIPATING AFTER DARK. IN BOTH
REGIMES...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD BE TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED SVR THREAT.

..EDWARDS.. 10/16/2010

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