SWODY1
SPC AC 160543
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 AM CDT SAT OCT 16 2010
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO TREND TOWARD A MORE ZONAL CONFIGURATION
WITH TIME...AS THE UPPER LOW INITIALLY OVER ERN NEW ENGLAND WEAKENS
AND SHIFTS ENEWD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND ADJACENT WRN
ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...THE WEAK UPPER CIRCULATION OVER NWRN MEXICO
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY EWD/ENEWD TOWARD W TX.
ELSEWHERE...A FAST-MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW/FRONT ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT QUICKLY EWD ACROSS CENTRAL
NOAM...WHILE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE W COAST LATE.
PRIMARY AREA OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION IS FORECAST ACROSS AZ/NM AND
INTO FAR W TX...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
CIRCULATION. WHILE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE A DEEPENING
AFTERNOON SURFACE-BASED MIXED LAYER MAY YIELD CAPE SUFFICIENT FOR A
STRONGER CELL OR TWO -- AND EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
ISOLATED/MARGINAL HAIL OR WIND REPORT...ANY THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR
TO WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM.
..GOSS/GRAMS.. 10/16/2010
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