KGJT [182007]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 182007
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
207 PM MDT TUE MAY 18 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0433 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E GRAND JUNCTION 39.09N 108.53W
05/18/2010 M53 MPH MESA CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1000560

$$

MALEKSA

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0610

ACUS11 KWNS 182006
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182005
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-182100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0610
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0305 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NE NM...OK/TX PNHDLS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 182005Z - 182100Z

.UPDATE TO MCD 608...
17Z VORTEX TEAM SOUNDING NEAR CLOVIS EXHIBITED ONLY A VERY SMALL CAP
WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE NEAR 26 DEG C. PER LATEST
TEMPERATURES...CINH WILL ERODE VERY SOON. CU CONTINUES TO CONGEST
DOWNSTREAM OF THE HIGHER-BASED STORMS NEAR THE RATON MESA/NCNTRL NM
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT THAT TSTMS WILL INITIATE IN ERNEST BETWEEN 21-22Z
OVER NERN NM ESE INTO THE NWRN TX PNHDL.

REMAINDER OF DISCO THE SAME:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT LEADING EDGE OF MODEST HEIGHT
FALLS WAS BEGINNING TO SPREAD TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN NRN NM
AND WILL ARRIVE ON THE HIGH PLAINS BY LATE AFTN. CONCOMITANT
PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO INCREASING
LLVL SELYS ACROSS THE PNHDLS INTO THE NE PLAINS OF NM...
TRANSPORTING MID/UPR 50S DEW POINTS NWWD. RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWS MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1500 J/KG AND WITH ANOTHER FEW DEGREES
OF SFC HEATING...CINH WILL SUFFICIENTLY ERODE FOR TSTM INITIATION.

FIRST HIGH-BASED TSTMS ARE ALREADY FORMING INVOF THE RATON MESA IN
NE NM AND WILL POSE A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL. SUBSEQUENT STORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP WITHIN THE EVOLVING TCU FIELD ESE ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE
ACROSS NE NM INTO THE WRN TX PNHDL THROUGH LATE AFTN. WLY DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS AND NEARLY 8 DEG C PER KM H7-H5
LAPSE RATES WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL. TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY AS STORMS
MATURE ALONG THE NM/TX/OK BORDER. ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO GROW
UPSCALE INTO AN MCS OR TWO BY MID-EVENING OVER THE TX PNHDL WITH
LARGE HAIL...HIGH WINDS AND ISOLD TORNADOES.

..RACY.. 05/18/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36900182 35970130 35140049 34340009 33960051 33830166
34000285 34410381 35230465 35910472 36910430 36900182

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0609

ACUS11 KWNS 182004
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182003
TXZ000-182200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0609
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...W TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 182003Z - 182200Z

VSB SATL SHOWS TCU BEGINNING TO SPROUT ALONG THE E/S EDGE OF THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS INTO THE BIG BEND REGION OF BREWSTER COUNTY. WHILE
THE CAP/LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS COMPARATIVELY STRONGER/WEAKER
RESPECTIVELY...HEATING ALONE MAY YIELD ISOLD TSTM INITIATION 21-22Z
ANYWHERE FROM THE MID/LWR TRANSPECOS...STOCKTON PLATEAU OR BIG BEND
REGION. THE DISCUSSION AREA IS LOCATED JUST S OF STRONGER DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...BUT GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8.5
DEG C PER KM AND RATHER MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO THE E...SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY
COULD SURVIVE AS FAR E AS THE ERN PERMIAN BASIN BY EARLY/MID
EVENING. ANTICIPATED ISOLD NATURE TO THE SVR THREAT WILL PROBABLY
PRECLUDE A WW.

..RACY.. 05/18/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 29020352 29930349 30490285 31110251 31800242 31940195
31740121 31330075 30590078 29390113 28780187 28610218
29020352

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KJAN [182002]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 182002
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
302 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0255 PM TSTM WND GST 4 ENE LAUREL 31.72N 89.08W
05/18/2010 E50 MPH JONES MS EMERGENCY MNGR

1 TREE DOWN AND PEA SIZED HAIL.

&&

$$

CME

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 181959
SWODY1
SPC AC 181957

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

VALID 182000Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
PARTS OF ERN CO...NERN NM...PARTS OF THE OK/TX PNHDLS INTO THE TX S
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN CO/WRN KS INTO THE ERN
NM AND WRN INTO N-CNTRL TX...

...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...

THE PRIMARY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST ARE AS FOLLOWS: 1) A
SLIGHT NWD SHIFT OF THE CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK OVER SWRN TX...2) A
SLIGHT EWD SHIFT IN THE CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK ALONG THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF SWRN OK/NWRN TX...3) A SWD EXTENSION OF THE TEN PERCENT
TORNADO PROBABILITY LINE IN THE TX PNHDL...AND 4) THE ADDITION OF A
30 PERCENT PROBABILITY WIND CONTOUR OVER PARTS OF THE OK/TX PNHDLS
INTO WRN OK.

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FROM ERN CO
SWD THROUGH ERN NM INTO THE OK/TX PNHDLS AND WRN TX. HERE...
DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH EWD PROGRESSION OF EML PRECEDING
MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO AIR
MASS DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

AT THE SAME TIME...A 40-50/50-70 KT MID/HIGH-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP
EWD THROUGH NM INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...RESULTING IN STEADILY
STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR. AS SUCH...THE SETUP WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES MAY INCREASE NEAR OR SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z FROM FAR SERN CO SEWD INTO THE OK/TX PNHDLS IN CONCERT
WITH A STRENGTHENING...SELY LLJ.

BY LATE EVENING...STORMS MAY GROW UPSCALE INTO A MCS WITH AN
INCREASED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE OK/TX PNHDLS. THE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT EWD INTO
OK...SUPPORTED BY STRONG WAA TO THE N OF WARM FRONT RETREATING NWD
INTO NRN TX.

..MEAD.. 05/18/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010/

...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
S/W TROUGH CURRENTLY SRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION MOVES EWD ACROSS SRN
ROCKIES INTO HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z WED. BAND OF STRONGER MID/UPR LEVEL
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH NRN AZ/NM WILL BRING FAVORABLE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT INTO HIGH PLAINS OF CO AND NE NM
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE RESPONSE TO APPROACHING TROUGH IS
LEE LOW DEVELOPMENT SERN CO WITH ADDITIONAL SMALLER SCALE CYCLONIC
FORMATION TO N OF PALMER DIVIDE.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPREADING N/NNW IN 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET FROM
OK/TX PANHANDLE NWD THRU ERN CO/WRN KS.

WHILE THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UPR CLOUDINESS WITH TROUGH ACROSS
NM...CLEARING LEE OF CO ROCKIES WILL ALLOW GOOD SURFACE HEATING.

WITH REGARDS TO THE MDT RISK...IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE GREATEST
LIKELIHOOD OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL
BE TIED TO THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE VICINITY PALMER DIVIDE SWD THRU
SERN CO/NERN NM INTO NRN TX PANHANDLE VICINITY AND N OF MID LEVEL
WIND MAX CURRENTLY CROSSING NRN NM.

INITIAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED IN ERN CO WHERE CINH WILL WEAKEN BY MID
AFTERNOON. THEN EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS SWD FAR ERN NM WHICH IS WHERE THE DRY LINE
SHOULD HAVE MIXED EWD TO BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM...MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG AND
FAVORABLE VEERING HODOGRAPHS...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR VERY
LARGE HAIL/TORNADOES WITHIN THE MDT AREA THAT WILL SHIFT EWD BY
EARLY EVENING INTO SWRN KS SWD THRU THE TX PANHANDLE.

FURTHER S WITH SOMEWHAT LESS FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND TO THE S OF
THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE TROUGH AND SOMEWHAT RETARDED SURFACE
HEATING DUE TO OBSERVED MID LEVEL CLOUDS...STORMS WILL BE MORE
WIDELY SCATTERED AND DEVELOP LATER AS WELL. HOWEVER ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS ARE STILL LIKELY WITH POTENTIAL FOR PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL
AS THEY PROPAGATE/MOVE EWD DURING THE EVENING.

...MT AND ADJACENT NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY OVER THE HI PLNS OF ERN MT...WITH PW
RISING TO AOA .75 INCHES AS LEE SIDE TROUGH STRENGTHENS. TSTMS
SHOULD FORM THIS AFTN ALONG THE TROUGH AND/OR ALONG TERRAIN-INDUCED
CIRCULATIONS AS HEATING BOOSTS SBCAPE TO 500-1000 J/KG /HIGHEST
ACROSS SE MT/. COUPLED WITH MODEST...DEEP...S TO SSELY FLOW AND
STEEP LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES...SETUP MAY SUPPORT A FEW SMALL
CLUSTERS STG/SVR STMS. HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.

...FL THIS AFTN...
SLIGHT COOLING/ASCENT WITH CYCLONIC MID/UPR LVL FLOW MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD
STRONG/SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN. A FEW DOWNBURSTS/MARGINALLY
SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG THE E CST SEA BREEZE FRONT.

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KTSA [181946]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 181946
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
246 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0434 PM HAIL 2 NW RATTAN 34.22N 95.44W
05/14/2010 E0.75 INCH PUSHMATAHA OK PUBLIC

0441 PM HAIL 4 NNE SWINK 34.07N 95.18W
05/14/2010 E1.25 INCH CHOCTAW OK PUBLIC

&&

$$

SAA

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KLCH [181946]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KLCH 181946
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
245 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 PM TSTM WND GST 1 WNW GRAND LAKE 30.04N 93.29W
05/17/2010 M63.00 MPH CAMERON LA BROADCAST MEDIA

KPLC-TV RELAYED A 63 MPH WIND GUST FROM DEATONVILLE
MEASURED BY A DAVIS WEATHER STATION

&&

$$

MGRIFFIN

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KLCH [181914]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 181914
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
213 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 PM TSTM WND GST 2 NNW GRAND LAKE 30.06N 93.28W
05/17/2010 M63 MPH CAMERON LA BROADCAST MEDIA

KPLC-TV RELAYED A 63 MPH WIND GUST FROM DEATONVILLE
MEASURED BY A DAVIS WEATHER STATION

&&

$$

MGRIFFIN

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0608

ACUS11 KWNS 181902
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181902
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-182100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0608
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NE NM...OK/TX PNHDLS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 181902Z - 182100Z

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT LEADING EDGE OF MODEST HEIGHT
FALLS WAS BEGINNING TO SPREAD TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN NRN NM
AND WILL ARRIVE ON THE HIGH PLAINS BY LATE AFTN. CONCOMITANT
PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO INCREASING
LLVL SELYS ACROSS THE PNHDLS INTO THE NE PLAINS OF NM...
TRANSPORTING MID/UPR 50S DEW POINTS NWWD. RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWS MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1500 J/KG AND WITH ANOTHER FEW DEGREES
OF SFC HEATING...CINH WILL SUFFICIENTLY ERODE FOR TSTM INITIATION.

FIRST HIGH-BASED TSTMS ARE ALREADY FORMING INVOF THE RATON MESA IN
NE NM AND WILL POSE A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL. SUBSEQUENT STORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP WITHIN THE EVOLVING TCU FIELD ESE ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE
ACROSS NE NM INTO THE WRN TX PNHDL THROUGH LATE AFTN. WLY DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS AND NEARLY 8 DEG C PER KM H7-H5
LAPSE RATES WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL. TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY AS STORMS
MATURE ALONG THE NM/TX/OK BORDER. ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO GROW
UPSCALE INTO AN MCS OR TWO BY MID-EVENING OVER THE TX PNHDL WITH
LARGE HAIL...HIGH WINDS AND ISOLD TORNADOES.

..RACY.. 05/18/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36900182 35970130 35140049 34340009 33960051 33830166
34000285 34410381 35230465 35910472 36910430 36900182

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 185

WWUS20 KWNS 181843
SEL5
SPC WW 181843
COZ000-190300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 185
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
145 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF EASTERN COLORADO

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 145 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTHEAST OF FORT
COLLINS COLORADO TO 35 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF SPRINGFIELD
COLORADO. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE QUICKLY THIS
AFTERNOON IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE WATCH AREA WITH THE
APPROACH OF UPR TROUGH AND VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE.
WITH HEATING THE AIR MASS IS NOW MDTLY UNSTABLE...MLCAPES TO 1200
J/KG. MOST FAVORED AREAS INITIALLY FOR SUPERCELLS AND
TORNADOES/LARGE HAIL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE
N OF PALMER DIVIDE. SUPERCELLS WILL BECOME MORE COMMON THRU
AFTERNOON AS ACTIVITY BUILDS EWD ACROSS THE WATCH. PRIMARY THREAT
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND AT LEAST ISOLATED TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26025.

...HALES

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KHGX [181822]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KHGX 181822
LSRHGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
122 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0137 PM HAIL POINT BLANK 30.75N 95.22W
05/17/2010 E1.75 INCH SAN JACINTO TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

GOLFBALL HAIL REPORTED ON HIGHWAY 156 NORTH IN POINT
BLANK

0201 PM HAIL COLDSPRING 30.59N 95.13W
05/17/2010 E1.75 INCH SAN JACINTO TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTED GOLFBALL HAIL FALLING IN
COLDSPRING.

0211 PM TSTM WND DMG COLDSPRING 30.59N 95.13W
05/17/2010 SAN JACINTO TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTED TREES DOWN IN YARDS IN
COLDSPRING.

0615 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 NE BRENHAM 30.20N 96.35W
05/17/2010 WASHINGTON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN ALONG AND ON FM50 BLOCKING TRAFFIC.

0639 PM HAIL 1 N PASADENA 29.68N 95.15W
05/17/2010 M1.75 INCH HARRIS TX PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORT OF GOLFBALL TO LIME SIZED HAIL AT 225 AND
RED BLUFF ROAD.

&&

$$

KP

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0607

ACUS11 KWNS 181742
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181742
COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-181945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0607
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY...EXTREME SWRN NEB PNHDL...ERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 181742Z - 181945Z

MID-DAY MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE LEE CYCLONE BEGINNING TO DEEPEN NE OF
KPUB AND AN EVOLVING DENVER CYCLONE. MID-LVL DRY SLOT WITHIN NOSE
OF THE UPR LVL JET STREAK WAS SURGING INTO CO. THERE HAVE BEEN
VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID/HIGH-LVL CIRROFORM CLOUDS TO THE LEE OF THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT MODEST HEATING HAS OCCURRED ACROSS ESPECIALLY ERN
CO. LLVL SELYS WERE TRANSPORTING UPR 40S/NEAR 50 DEG F SFC DEW
POINTS TO THE E/NE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONES AND GIVEN STEEP
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...MLCAPES WERE ALREADY APPROACHING 1000 J/KG.

HIGH-BASED CBS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ALONG/W OF THE DIVIDE PER VSB
SATL IMAGERY. ACTIVITY MAY TRY TO ROOT INTO THE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER E OF THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH THE AFTN AS CINH CONTINUES TO
ERODE /LIKELY WITH MID-60S TEMPERATURES/. INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
MAY OCCUR INVOF THE DENVER CYCLONE WITH SUBSEQUENT DVLPMT SWD INTO
SERN CO AFTER 20-21Z. STORMS WILL MOVE ENE AND WILL GROW INTO
SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL OWING TO INCREASING EFFECTIVE SHEAR.
TORNADO THREATS WILL BE MAXIMIZED WITHIN THE DENVER CYCLONE/N SIDE
OF PALMER DIVIDE...BUT ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE IN
THE DISCUSSION AREA. EVENTUALLY... STORMS WILL CONGEAL INTO SVRL
LINEAR SEGMENTS AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP INTO THE LWR PLAINS TOWARD
NEB/KS BORDER WITH HIGH WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

..RACY.. 05/18/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 40240241 38650210 37840228 37240281 37200395 38200384
38970441 39090449 39960464 40480493 41150508 41570602
41990570 42140537 41870393 41260300 40240241

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KJAN [181731]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 181731
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1231 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0755 PM HAIL 3 W RULEVILLE 33.72N 90.60W
05/17/2010 E0.75 INCH SUNFLOWER MS PUBLIC

&&

$$

CME

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KMAF [181726]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KMAF 181726
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1225 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0340 PM HAIL 1 E ALPINE 30.36N 103.65W
05/17/2010 E1.00 INCH BREWSTER TX STORM CHASER

PENNY TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED ON THE EAST SIDE OF
ALPINE.

0340 PM HAIL ALPINE 30.36N 103.67W
05/17/2010 E1.75 INCH BREWSTER TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN ALPINE.

0400 PM HAIL 8 SSE ALPINE 30.26N 103.61W
05/17/2010 E3.00 INCH BREWSTER TX PUBLIC

3.00 INCH HAIL REPORTED 8 MILES SSE OF ALPINE.

0410 PM HAIL 12 S ALPINE 30.19N 103.67W
05/17/2010 E4.25 INCH BREWSTER TX PUBLIC

0410 PM HAIL 16 E VAN HORN 31.04N 104.56W
05/17/2010 E1.00 INCH CULBERSON TX PUBLIC

LOCATED AT THE PLATEAN TRUCKSTOP

0412 PM HAIL 8 S ALPINE 30.25N 103.67W
05/17/2010 E1.75 INCH BREWSTER TX AMATEUR RADIO

0416 PM HAIL 8 S ALPINE 30.25N 103.67W
05/17/2010 E2.75 INCH BREWSTER TX STORM CHASER

0416 PM HAIL 8 S ALPINE 30.25N 103.67W
05/17/2010 E2.75 INCH BREWSTER TX STORM CHASER

BASEBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED 8 MILES SOUTH OF ALPINE.

0420 PM HAIL S ALPINE 30.36N 103.67W
05/17/2010 E1.75 INCH BREWSTER TX PUBLIC

ALSO .5 IN OF RAIN

0427 PM HAIL 6 W MENTONE 31.71N 103.70W
05/17/2010 E1.75 INCH REEVES TX PUBLIC

GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED 6 MILES WEST OF MENTONE.

0430 PM HAIL 8 S ALPINE 30.25N 103.67W
05/17/2010 E4.25 INCH BREWSTER TX AMATEUR RADIO

BASEBALL TO SOFTBALL SIZE HAIL NEAR DIAMOND DEVELOPMENT.
WINDOWS WERE BROKEN.

0430 PM HAIL MENTONE 31.71N 103.60W
05/17/2010 E0.88 INCH LOVING TX STORM CHASER

NICKEL HAIL REPORTED IN MENTONE.

0500 PM HAIL 15 ENE ORLA 31.91N 103.67W
05/17/2010 E1.25 INCH LOVING TX PUBLIC

QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE, MOSTLY PEA SIZE THOUGH

0522 PM HAIL MARATHON 30.21N 103.24W
05/17/2010 E0.75 INCH BREWSTER TX TRAINED SPOTTER

0529 PM HAIL 5 S CARLSBAD 32.33N 104.24W
05/17/2010 E1.00 INCH EDDY NM TRAINED SPOTTER

0530 PM HAIL CARLSBAD 32.40N 104.24W
05/17/2010 E1.75 INCH EDDY NM LAW ENFORCEMENT

GOLFBALL HAIL ON DULCE ROAD IN SOUTH CARLSBAD.

0530 PM HAIL 13 E CARLSBAD 32.40N 104.01W
05/17/2010 E1.75 INCH EDDY NM PUBLIC

0540 PM HAIL 5 SE CARLSBAD 32.35N 104.18W
05/17/2010 E1.00 INCH EDDY NM STORM CHASER

DIME TO QUARTER HAIL 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CARLSBAD.

0547 PM HAIL 10 NW ARTESIA 32.95N 104.55W
05/17/2010 E1.75 INCH EDDY NM STORM CHASER

GOLFBALL HAIL REPORTED BY THE VORTEX TEAM 10 MILES
NORTHWEST OF ARTESIA.

0554 PM HAIL 10 NW ARTESIA 32.95N 104.55W
05/17/2010 E2.50 INCH EDDY NM STORM CHASER

TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ARTESIA BY THE VORTEX TEAM.

0555 PM HAIL 4 E CARLSBAD 32.40N 104.17W
05/17/2010 E1.75 INCH EDDY NM STORM CHASER

GOLFBALL HAIL REPORTED 4 MILES EAST OF CARLSBAD AIRPORT.

0559 PM HAIL 5 S CARLSBAD 32.33N 104.24W
05/17/2010 E1.25 INCH EDDY NM CO-OP OBSERVER

HALF DOLLAR HAIL REPORTED 5 MILES SOUTH OF CARLSBAD AND 1
MILE EAST OF CARLSBAD AIRPORT.

0559 PM HAIL 10 S ARTESIA 32.70N 104.43W
05/17/2010 E1.00 INCH EDDY NM STORM CHASER

QUARTER HAIL REPORTED 10 MILES SOUTH OF ARTESIA.

0605 PM HAIL 1 E CARLSBAD 32.40N 104.22W
05/17/2010 E1.50 INCH EDDY NM STORM CHASER

PING PONG BALL HAIL REPORTED 1 MILE EAST OF THE CARLSBAD
AIRPORT.

0605 PM HAIL 6 N ARTESIA 32.93N 104.43W
05/17/2010 E1.00 INCH EDDY NM AMATEUR RADIO

QUARTER HAIL REPORTED 6 MILES NORTH OF ARTESIA.

0611 PM HAIL 9 NW ARTESIA 32.94N 104.54W
05/17/2010 E1.50 INCH EDDY NM STORM CHASER

1.5 INCH HAIL REPORTED IN COTTONWOOD.

0611 PM HAIL 9 NW ARTESIA 32.94N 104.54W
05/17/2010 E1.50 INCH EDDY NM STORM CHASER

PING PONG BALL HAIL REPORTED IN COTTONWOOD.

0615 PM HAIL CARLSBAD 32.40N 104.24W
05/17/2010 E1.00 INCH EDDY NM STORM CHASER

QUARTER HAIL REPORTED AT THE CARLSBAD AIRPORT.

0645 PM HAIL 2 N HOPE 32.85N 104.74W
05/17/2010 E1.75 INCH EDDY NM PUBLIC

DECORATIVE ITEMS WERE DAMAGED IN YARD AND 50 MPH WINDS.
ONE FOOT DEEP OF PEA SIZE HAIL.

0645 PM FLOOD 1 SW HOPE 32.81N 104.75W
05/17/2010 EDDY NM PUBLIC

12 TO 18 INCHES OF WATER RAN OVER DRIVEWAY AND STREET IN
FRONT OF HOUSE. LOST 1/4 OF 30 ACRES OF ALFAFA CROP FROM
FLOODING DUE TO A WAVE OF RUNNING WATER WHICH CAME IN
FROM THE FIELD.

0700 PM HAIL 12 E HALFWAY 32.55N 103.53W
05/17/2010 E1.00 INCH LEA NM PUBLIC

0700 PM HAIL HOPE 32.82N 104.74W
05/17/2010 E1.75 INCH EDDY NM PUBLIC

ABOUT 160 DOLLARS WORTH OF BABY CHICKENS WERE KILLED DUE
TO HAIL.

0707 PM HAIL HOPE 32.82N 104.74W
05/17/2010 E1.75 INCH EDDY NM STORM CHASER

GOLFBALL HAIL REPORTED IN HOPE.

0712 PM HAIL 3 S HOPE 32.77N 104.74W
05/17/2010 E1.75 INCH EDDY NM STORM CHASER

GOLFBALL HAIL REPORTED 3 MILES SOUTH OF HOPE.

0712 PM HAIL 3 S HOPE 32.77N 104.74W
05/17/2010 E1.75 INCH EDDY NM STORM CHASER

GOLFBALL HAIL REPORTED 3 MILES SOUTH OF HOPE.

0714 PM HAIL HOPE 32.82N 104.74W
05/17/2010 E1.75 INCH EDDY NM STORM CHASER

DIME TO GOLFBALL HAIL REPORTED IN HOPE.

0714 PM HAIL HOPE 32.82N 104.74W
05/17/2010 E1.75 INCH EDDY NM STORM CHASER

DIME TO GOLFBALL HAIL REPORTED IN HOPE.

0730 PM HAIL 1 SW HOPE 32.81N 104.75W
05/17/2010 E1.75 INCH EDDY NM PUBLIC

APPROXIMATELY 5 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN ONE HOUR

0927 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 S HOPE 32.76N 104.74W
05/17/2010 EDDY NM PUBLIC

3 TO 4 FEET OF WATER FLOWING ACROSS ARMSTRONG ROAD.

&&

$$

KAT

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 181716
SWODY2
SPC AC 181715

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL AND SRN OK
INTO NRN TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SWRN KS EWD THROUGH MUCH
OF OK AND N TX INTO WRN AR AND NWRN LA...

...SYNOPSIS...

A LARGE-AMPLITUDE...SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
TWO PERIOD WITH THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING A MIDLEVEL
TROUGH WHICH WILL PROGRESS FROM THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES EWD INTO THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ATTENDED BY MID AND
HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAKS WHICH WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE RED RIVER
VALLEY...ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE PRIMARY VORTICITY MAXIMUM.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL SUPPORT THE SEWD DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW FROM SWRN KS INTO
SWRN OK OR NWRN TX BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT
INITIALLY FROM THE SURFACE LOW SEWD THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY
INTO SRN MS WILL RETREAT NWD THROUGH THE DAY. A DRY LINE WILL
DIURNALLY SHARPEN FROM THE INTERSECTION OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT
OVER WRN OK SWD INTO THE NWRN/W-CNTRL TX.

...SRN PLAINS INTO ARKLATEX...

CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS /SOME CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL/ ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM SWRN KS SEWD INTO
OK...TO THE N OF SURFACE WARM FRONT AND WITHIN 40+ KT LLJ AXIS WHERE
WARM THERMAL AND MOISTURE ADVECTIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MUCAPE
APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY OWING TO CONTINUED ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR ASSOCIATED STORM COLD POOLS TO
REINFORCE SURFACE RIDGING...THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR N
THE WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S COUPLED WITH MODESTLY STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATE TO
STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON TO THE S OF THE WARM FRONT
AND E OF DRY LINE WHERE MLCAPE WILL APPROACH 2000-3000 J/KG.
HERE...SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THE MIDLEVEL SYSTEM SHOULD FOSTER
SCATTERED...SURFACE-BASED TSTMS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF
WRN AND CNTRL OK INTO N TX.

THE EWD MIGRATION OF THE ABOVE-MENTIONED MID AND HIGH-LEVEL JET
STREAKS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THE AREA GENERALLY ALONG AND E OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WILL
MAINTAIN THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALONG THE MIGRATORY LLJ AXIS. HERE...THE GREATEST
TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT CAN
FAVORABLY INTERACT WITH THE RETREATING WARM FRONT.

WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL TEND TO DECREASE WITH SEWD EXTENT ALONG
THE WARM FRONT...THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS SUGGESTS THE THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX
INTO NRN LA.

...ERN NC...

A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS COUPLED WITH COOLING ATTENDANT TO AN
EWD-MOVING MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN TO THE N OF
THIS INSTABILITY AXIS THROUGH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE.
HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF AROUND 40 KT WSWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..MEAD.. 05/18/2010

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KPDT [181716]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KPDT 181716
LSRPDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1015 AM PDT TUE MAY 18 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0555 PM TSTM WND GST PENDLETON 45.67N 118.82W
05/17/2010 M55.00 MPH UMATILLA OR MESONET

ASOS PEAK WIND GUST 48 KNOTS AT KPDT

0555 PM TSTM WND DMG PENDLETON 45.67N 118.82W
05/17/2010 UMATILLA OR NWS EMPLOYEE

SHINGLES BLOWN OFF ROOF

&&

$$

VESCIO

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KEWX [181702]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KEWX 181702
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1202 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1110 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 WSW DEL RIO 29.37N 100.91W
05/16/2010 VAL VERDE TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL ROADS CLOSED INCLUDING 1OTH STREET... 13TH
STREET... AND FOX DRIVE

&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000303

$$

CJM

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KEWX [181658]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 181658
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1158 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0723 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 NE HENLY 30.26N 98.16W
05/17/2010 HAYS TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

MCGREGOR LANE CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000305

$$

CJM

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KMAF [181645]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 181645
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1144 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0410 PM HAIL 16 E VAN HORN 31.04N 104.56W
05/17/2010 E1.00 INCH CULBERSON TX PUBLIC

LOCATED AT THE PLATEAN TRUCKSTOP

0420 PM HAIL S ALPINE 30.36N 103.67W
05/17/2010 E1.75 INCH BREWSTER TX PUBLIC

ALSO .5 IN OF RAIN

0430 PM HAIL 8 S ALPINE 30.25N 103.67W
05/17/2010 E4.25 INCH BREWSTER TX AMATEUR RADIO

BASEBALL TO SOFTBALL SIZE HAIL NEAR DIAMOND DEVELOPMENT.
WINDOWS WERE BROKEN.

0500 PM HAIL 15 ENE ORLA 31.91N 103.67W
05/17/2010 E1.25 INCH LOVING TX PUBLIC

QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE, MOSTLY PEA SIZE THOUGH

0530 PM HAIL 13 E CARLSBAD 32.40N 104.01W
05/17/2010 E1.75 INCH EDDY NM PUBLIC

0645 PM FLOOD 1 SW HOPE 32.81N 104.75W
05/17/2010 EDDY NM PUBLIC

12 TO 18 INCHES OF WATER RAN OVER DRIVEWAY AND STREET IN
FRONT OF HOUSE. LOST 1/4 OF 30 ACRES OF ALFAFA CROP FROM
FLOODING DUE TO A WAVE OF RUNNING WATER WHICH CAME IN
FROM THE FIELD.

0645 PM HAIL 2 N HOPE 32.85N 104.74W
05/17/2010 E1.75 INCH EDDY NM PUBLIC

DECORATIVE ITEMS WERE DAMAGED IN YARD AND 50 MPH WINDS.
ONE FOOT DEEP OF PEA SIZE HAIL.

0700 PM HAIL 12 E HALFWAY 32.55N 103.53W
05/17/2010 E1.00 INCH LEA NM PUBLIC

0700 PM HAIL HOPE 32.82N 104.74W
05/17/2010 E1.75 INCH EDDY NM PUBLIC

ABOUT 160 DOLLARS WORTH OF BABY CHICKENS WERE KILLED DUE
TO HAIL.

0730 PM HAIL 1 SW HOPE 32.81N 104.75W
05/17/2010 E1.75 INCH EDDY NM PUBLIC

APPROXIMATELY 5 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN ONE HOUR

&&

$$

KATHERINE.HAWLEY

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KEWX [181623]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 181623
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1123 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 AM FLASH FLOOD 7 E HONDO 29.36N 99.05W
05/15/2010 MEDINA TX NEWSPAPER

MULTIPLE HOMES DAMAGED

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000304

$$

CJM

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 181620
SWODY1
SPC AC 181619

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

VALID 181630Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF ERN CO...NERN NM...SWRN
KS...WRN OK AND TX PANHANDLES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
S/W TROUGH CURRENTLY SRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION MOVES EWD ACROSS SRN
ROCKIES INTO HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z WED. BAND OF STRONGER MID/UPR LEVEL
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH NRN AZ/NM WILL BRING FAVORABLE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT INTO HIGH PLAINS OF CO AND NE NM
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE RESPONSE TO APPROACHING TROUGH IS
LEE LOW DEVELOPMENT SERN CO WITH ADDITIONAL SMALLER SCALE CYCLONIC
FORMATION TO N OF PALMER DIVIDE.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPREADING N/NNW IN 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET FROM
OK/TX PANHANDLE NWD THRU ERN CO/WRN KS.

WHILE THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UPR CLOUDINESS WITH TROUGH ACROSS
NM...CLEARING LEE OF CO ROCKIES WILL ALLOW GOOD SURFACE HEATING.

WITH REGARDS TO THE MDT RISK...IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE GREATEST
LIKELIHOOD OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL
BE TIED TO THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE VICINITY PALMER DIVIDE SWD THRU
SERN CO/NERN NM INTO NRN TX PANHANDLE VICINITY AND N OF MID LEVEL
WIND MAX CURRENTLY CROSSING NRN NM.

INITIAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED IN ERN CO WHERE CINH WILL WEAKEN BY MID
AFTERNOON. THEN EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS SWD FAR ERN NM WHICH IS WHERE THE DRY LINE
SHOULD HAVE MIXED EWD TO BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM...MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG AND
FAVORABLE VEERING HODOGRAPHS...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR VERY
LARGE HAIL/TORNADOES WITHIN THE MDT AREA THAT WILL SHIFT EWD BY
EARLY EVENING INTO SWRN KS SWD THRU THE TX PANHANDLE.

FURTHER S WITH SOMEWHAT LESS FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND TO THE S OF
THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE TROUGH AND SOMEWHAT RETARDED SURFACE
HEATING DUE TO OBSERVED MID LEVEL CLOUDS...STORMS WILL BE MORE
WIDELY SCATTERED AND DEVELOP LATER AS WELL. HOWEVER ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS ARE STILL LIKELY WITH POTENTIAL FOR PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL
AS THEY PROPAGATE/MOVE EWD DURING THE EVENING.

...MT AND ADJACENT NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY OVER THE HI PLNS OF ERN MT...WITH PW
RISING TO AOA .75 INCHES AS LEE SIDE TROUGH STRENGTHENS. TSTMS
SHOULD FORM THIS AFTN ALONG THE TROUGH AND/OR ALONG TERRAIN-INDUCED
CIRCULATIONS AS HEATING BOOSTS SBCAPE TO 500-1000 J/KG /HIGHEST
ACROSS SE MT/. COUPLED WITH MODEST...DEEP...S TO SSELY FLOW AND
STEEP LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES...SETUP MAY SUPPORT A FEW SMALL
CLUSTERS STG/SVR STMS. HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.

...FL THIS AFTN...
SLIGHT COOLING/ASCENT WITH CYCLONIC MID/UPR LVL FLOW MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD
STRONG/SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN. A FEW DOWNBURSTS/MARGINALLY
SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG THE E CST SEA BREEZE FRONT.

..HALES/HURLBUT.. 05/18/2010

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KJAN [181618]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 181618
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1118 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0804 PM HAIL MAYERSVILLE 32.90N 91.04W
05/17/2010 E0.75 INCH ISSAQUENA MS PUBLIC

&&

$$

CME

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 184

WWUS20 KWNS 181617
SEL4
SPC WW 181617
TXZ000-CWZ000-181700-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 184
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 184 ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

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KMEG [181606]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KMEG 181606
LSRMEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1106 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM TSTM WND DMG RIDGELY 36.26N 89.48W
05/17/2010 LAKE TN TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN AND POWER LINES DOWN IN TOWN OF
RIDGELY

0410 PM TSTM WND DMG FISHER 35.49N 90.97W
05/17/2010 POINSETT AR TRAINED SPOTTER

TREES DOWN FROM HIGH WINDS. DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED.

0417 PM HAIL FISHER 35.49N 90.97W
05/17/2010 E0.75 INCH POINSETT AR PUBLIC

0422 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 NNE NEWBERN 36.17N 89.24W
05/17/2010 DYER TN TRAINED SPOTTER

A METAL CAR PORT BLEW AWAY WITH LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN.
ESTIMATED WIND SPEED 55 MPH. ALSO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
OBSERVED AT LOCUST GROVE RD AND HIGHWAY 211.

0440 PM HAIL YORKVILLE 36.10N 89.12W
05/17/2010 E0.88 INCH GIBSON TN EMERGENCY MNGR

NICKEL SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND

0450 PM TSTM WND GST 2 SE YORKVILLE 36.08N 89.09W
05/17/2010 E60.00 MPH GIBSON TN EMERGENCY MNGR

0500 PM TSTM WND DMG DYER 36.07N 88.99W
05/17/2010 GIBSON TN EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMEROS TREES LARGE AND SMALL DOWN IN CITY OF DYER.

0500 PM TSTM WND DMG MARKED TREE 35.53N 90.42W
05/17/2010 POINSETT AR DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

LIGHT POLES DOWN ACROSS CITY OF MARKED TREE

0501 PM HAIL 2 SSE DYER 36.04N 88.98W
05/17/2010 U0.75 INCH GIBSON TN PUBLIC

0514 PM TSTM WND DMG TRENTON 35.97N 88.94W
05/17/2010 GIBSON TN EMERGENCY MNGR

LARGE OAK TREE DOWN ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SMALL TREES DOWN
IN TRENTON

0515 PM TSTM WND DMG TRENTON 35.97N 88.94W
05/17/2010 GIBSON TN TRAINED SPOTTER

POWER LINES DOWN AND NUMEROUS TREES DOWN CITY WIDE

0520 PM TSTM WND DMG MILAN 35.92N 88.75W
05/17/2010 GIBSON TN EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMBER 7 MAYO COOK ROAD IN MILAN 4 TREES FELL ON HOUSE

0520 PM TSTM WND DMG MILAN 35.92N 88.75W
05/17/2010 GIBSON TN PUBLIC

NUMEROUS POWER LINES DOWN ACROSS CITY OF MILAN

0520 PM TSTM WND DMG MILAN 35.92N 88.75W
05/17/2010 GIBSON TN PUBLIC

RAILROAD CROSSING GATES SNAPPED OFF BY WIND

0520 PM HAIL MILAN 35.92N 88.75W
05/17/2010 M1.75 INCH GIBSON TN EMERGENCY MNGR

GOLFBALL HAIL IN MILAN AND A LARGE AREA SURROUNDING MILAN

0520 PM TSTM WND DMG MILAN 35.92N 88.75W
05/17/2010 GIBSON TN EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMEROUS HOMES WITH ROOF DAMAGE ACROSS CITY

0523 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 W ATWOOD 35.98N 88.69W
05/17/2010 CARROLL TN TRAINED SPOTTER

TREES ON HOMES AND CARS ON CADES ATWOOD ROAD BETWEN TOWNS
OF CADES AND ATWOOD

0537 PM TSTM WND DMG MILAN 35.92N 88.75W
05/17/2010 GIBSON TN TRAINED SPOTTER

HWY 45 IN MILAN. WIND BLOWING LARGE LIMBS UP TO 20 INCHES
IN DIAMETER ONTO ROAD SMALLER TREES SNAPPED OFF AND POWER
LINES DOWN

0545 PM HAIL CARUTHERSVILLE 36.18N 89.67W
05/17/2010 M1.00 INCH PEMISCOT MO PUBLIC

0558 PM HAIL 1 N WILDERSVILLE 35.80N 88.37W
05/17/2010 E1.00 INCH HENDERSON TN POST OFFICE

&&

$$

MBS

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KEWX [181557]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 181557
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1057 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1110 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 WSW DEL RIO 29.37N 100.91W
05/16/2010 VAL VERDE TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL ROADS CLOSED INCLUDING 1OTH STREET... 13TH
STREET... AND FOX DRIVE

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000303

$$

CJM

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KEWX [181555]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 181555
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1055 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0738 AM FLASH FLOOD 16 S JUNO 29.92N 101.15W
05/16/2010 VAL VERDE TX PUBLIC

SEVERAL LOW WATER CROSSINGS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000302

$$

CJM

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KEWX [181542]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 181542
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1042 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0230 AM FLASH FLOOD DEL RIO 29.38N 100.90W
05/18/2010 VAL VERDE TX NWS EMPLOYEE

CINEGIAS STREET AND INDUSTRIAL BLVD IN DEL RIO CLOSED
DUE TO FLOODING

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000301

$$

CJM

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KGSP [181528]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 181528
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1128 AM EDT TUE MAY 18 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0638 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 NW NEWTON 35.68N 81.23W
05/16/2010 CATAWBA NC FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

TREE AND POWERLINES DOWN.

&&

$$

CSH

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KEWX [181523]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 181523
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1023 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0945 AM TSTM WND GST 14 NNW DEL RIO 29.57N 100.97W
05/16/2010 E60 MPH VAL VERDE TX PUBLIC

FISHING BOAT FLIPPED NEAR ROUGH CANYON

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000300

$$

CJM

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KABR [181501]: Cocorahs Precipitation Summary

NWUS53 KABR 181501
LSRABR

COCORAHS PRECIPITATION SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1000 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

COCORAHS PRECIPITATION REPORTS
THESE REPORTS ARE CONSIDERED SUPPLEMENTAL AND UNOFFICIAL
VALUES ARE FOR THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS ENDING AROUND 7 AM LOCAL TIME

.B ABR 0518 C DH07/PP/SF/SD/SW
:
:COCORAHS PRECIPITATION REPORTS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
:
: SNOW SNOW WATER
: PCPN FALL DEPTH EQUIV
:
SDBR7 : WARNER 3.4 SE * : 0.00 / 0.0 / MM / MM
SDCR4 : MOBRIDGE 8.0 NNW * : 0.00 / 0.0 / MM / MM
SDDL1 : CLEAR LAKE 0.6 SSW * : 0.00 / 0.0 / MM / MM
SDED5 : ROSCOE 0.3 NNW * : 0.00 / 0.0 / MM / MM
SDHG10 : PIERRE 1.3 S * : 0.00 / 0.0 / MM / MM
SDHY1 : HIGHMORE 12.4 N * : 0.00 / 0.0 / MM / MM
SDHY2 : HIGHMORE 19.1 NNW * : 0.00 / 0.0 / MM / MM
SDLY1 : PRESHO 0.3 SSW * : 0.00 / 0.0 / MM / MM
SDLY4 : KENNEBEC 6.2 SSE * : 0.00 / 0.0 / MM / MM
SDLY5 : PRESHO 13.8 NW * : 0.00 / 0.0 / MM / MM
SDMP3 : EUREKA 0.3 SSE * : 0.00 / 0.0 / MM / MM
SDRB1 : SISSETON 3.8 W * : 0.00 / 0.0 / MM / MM
SDRB4 : SISSETON 10.4 ENE * : 0.00 / 0.0 / MM / MM
SDSL2 : ONIDA 0.2 N * : 0.00 / 0.0 / MM / MM
:
.END

$$

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KBRO [181451]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KBRO 181451
LSRBRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
950 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0934 AM TSTM WND GST HARLINGEN 26.20N 97.69W
05/18/2010 M60.00 MPH CAMERON TX ASOS

&&

$$

CASTILLO

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KBRO [181441]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBRO 181441
LSRBRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
940 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0935 AM TSTM WND GST SAN BENITO 26.14N 97.64W
05/18/2010 E60 MPH CAMERON TX PUBLIC

0935 AM TSTM WND GST HARLINGEN 26.20N 97.69W
05/18/2010 M60 MPH CAMERON TX ASOS

&&

$$

CASTILLO

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KEWX [181422]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 181422
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
922 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0618 PM HAIL 1 ESE WIMBERLEY 29.99N 98.09W
05/17/2010 E1.00 INCH HAYS TX STORM CHASER

DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL ON RANCH ROAD 12.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000299

$$

CJM

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KBRO [181419]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBRO 181419
LSRBRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
919 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0845 AM HAIL 4 E EDINBURG 26.30N 98.10W
05/18/2010 E0.88 INCH HIDALGO TX PUBLIC

NICKEL SIZE HAIL IN SAN CARLOS.

&&

$$

CASTILLO

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0606

ACUS11 KWNS 181407
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181407
TXZ000-181530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0606
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0907 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...S TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 184...

VALID 181407Z - 181530Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 184
CONTINUES.

LINEAR MCS WAS MOVING 295/35KT AND WILL CLEAR THE LWR VLY BY 1530Z.
BRO 88D WAS SHOWING OCNL INBOUND BASE VELOCITIES OF 50-60
KTS...ESPECIALLY AS THE LINE OF STORMS INTERCEPTS ROGUE WARM SECTOR
STORMS. 12Z BRO SOUNDING EXHIBITED LAPSE RATES AOA 7 DEG C PER KM
THROUGH 6KM ALONG WITH 3700 J/KG MLCAPES. COLD POOL DYNAMICS AND
TRANSLATION OF STORMS AMIDST WNW DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL BRING SPORADIC
DMGG WINDS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL INTO THE KHRL/KBRO/KPIL REGIONS
1430-1530 UTC.

..RACY.. 05/18/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

LAT...LON 25769871 27849709 27209706 25949686 25909731 25889757
25799842 25769871

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 181259
SWODY1
SPC AC 181258

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

VALID 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN HI PLNS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HI PLNS INTO SW
TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER DEEP S TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LWR 48.
IN THE SRN STREAM...SRN GRT BASIN TROUGH SHOULD MOVE E TO THE SRN
HI PLNS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS OH VLY SYSTEM FURTHER ELONGATES
AND CONTINUES ENE INTO THE NRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS.

AT LWR LVLS...LEE TROUGH EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH
PERIOD...WITH MAIN SFC CENTER FORMING OVER SE CO TODAY AND ADVANCING
SLOWLY ESE TO THE OK PANHANDLE EARLY WED. LOW LVL SSELY FLOW
WILL...HOWEVER...DEVELOP ALONG THE ENTIRE ERN EXTENT OF THE RCKYS
FROM NM TO MT. MEANWHILE...CONVECTIVELY-REINFORCED FRONT NOW OVER
TX SHOULD REDEVELOP N/NE ACROSS THE SRN PLNS...WITH THE BOUNDARY
LIKELY TO EXTEND FROM THE TX PANHANDLE SE ALONG THE RED RVR BY 12Z
WED. IN THE EAST...WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE NC CST SHOULD DRIVE
COMPLEX FRONTAL ZONE SLOWLY SE ACROSS MS/AL/GA AND THE CAROLINAS.

...CNTRL/SRN HI PLNS THROUGH EARLY WED...
INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT...STRENGTHENING/DIFFLUENT UPR FLOW
...LOW LVL MOISTURE RETURN...AND SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL SUPPORT A
SUBSTANTIAL SVR POTENTIAL OVER THE CNTRL/SRN HI PLNS TODAY/TONIGHT.
STG/SVR TSTMS SHOULD FORM MORE OR LESS SIMULTANEOUSLY IN
CONFLUENT...MODERATELY UPSLOPE FLOW OVER ERN CO/NE NM...AND ALONG
N-S DRYLINE NEAR THE NM-TX BORDER.

STEEPENING LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STG
VERTICAL SHEAR/VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND SOME TORNADOES. THIS THREAT SHOULD
BE GREATEST LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY TONIGHT OVER SE CO/FAR ERN NM AND
MUCH OF W TX. WITH MODERATE SLY LLJ LIKELY TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE
TO CONTINUED EWD PROGRESSION OF GRT BASIN UPR TROUGH...THE
RELATIVELY GREATEST TORNADO THREAT A BIT LATER THIS EVE MAY EXIST
OVER PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT TX S PLNS...NEAR SFC
WARM FRONT/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/DRY LINE INTERSECTION.

OTHERWISE...THE INCREASING LLJ SHOULD SUPPORT UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT
INTO ONE OR MORE SE-MOVING MCSS TONIGHT. WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
AND SUSTAINED STORMS/BOWING SEGMENTS...THESE LIKELY WILL YIELD A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR SVR HAIL...DMGG WIND...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD
TORNADO INTO PARTS OF NW TX AND POSSIBLY WRN OK.

...S TX THROUGH MIDDAY...
S TX MCS SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY ESE THROUGH LATE MORNING...
SUPPORTED BY MODEST BUT VERY MOIST SELY LOW LVL FLOW BENEATH LIGHT
WLY FLOW ALOFT. OTHER STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG WEAKENING
W/E OUTFLOW BOUNDARY S OF CRP AND ALONG SEA/LAND BREEZE BOUNDARIES
NEAR BRO. CELL MERGERS...HI PW...AND ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING MAY
SUPPORT ISOLD LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS...MARGINALLY SVR HAIL...AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO /REF WW 184/.

...MT AND ADJACENT NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY OVER THE HI PLNS OF ERN MT...WITH PW
RISING TO AOA .75 INCHES AS LEE SIDE TROUGH STRENGTHENS. TSTMS
SHOULD FORM THIS AFTN ALONG THE TROUGH AND/OR ALONG TERRAIN-INDUCED
CIRCULATIONS AS HEATING BOOSTS SBCAPE TO 500-1000 J/KG /HIGHEST
ACROSS SE MT/. COUPLED WITH MODEST...DEEP...S TO SSELY FLOW AND
STEEP LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES...SETUP MAY SUPPORT A FEW SMALL
CLUSTERS STG/SVR STMS. HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.

...FL THIS AFTN...
SLIGHT COOLING/ASCENT WITH CYCLONIC MID/UPR LVL FLOW MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD
STRONG/SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN. A FEW DOWNBURSTS/MARGINALLY
SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG THE E CST SEA BREEZE FRONT.

..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 05/18/2010

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KLOT [181247]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 181247
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
747 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0746 AM HEAVY RAIN CHESTERTON 41.60N 87.06W
05/18/2010 M0.50 INCH PORTER IN TRAINED SPOTTER

0.50 INCHES OF RAIN FELL YESTERDAY.

&&

$$

CM

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 184

WWUS20 KWNS 181110
SEL4
SPC WW 181110
TXZ000-CWZ000-181700-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 184
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
610 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING FROM 610 AM UNTIL NOON CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 95 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF MCALLEN TEXAS TO 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...MCS NOW NEAR LRD...WITH EMBEDDED SUSTAINED
STORMS/MARGINAL SUPERCELLS...EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY ESE THROUGH
LATE MORNING. NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF MCS ALONG
STALLING W/E OUTFLOW BOUNDARY S OF CRP. COMBINATION OF RICH
MOISTURE /PW AOA 1.75 IN/ AND MODEST WLY DEEP SHEAR/LOW LVL ESELY
FLOW SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL DMGG WIND GUSTS AND SVR HAIL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28025.

...CORFIDI

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0605

ACUS11 KWNS 181033
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181032
TXZ000-181200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0605
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0532 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 181032Z - 181200Z

MID LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY VEERING ACROSS SOUTH TX AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SEWD TOWARD THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
FEATURE APPEARS PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR MAINTENANCE OF ONGOING MCS AS
IT TRACKS STEADILY SEWD AT ROUGHLY 30KT. WHILE THE LEADING EDGE OF
STRONGEST STORMS NOW STRETCHES ALONG THE BRO/CRP CWA
BORDER...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AN E-W WIND
SHIFT ACROSS THE NWRN GULF INTO THE DIGGING MCS. GIVEN THESE
TRENDS...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF
DEEP SOUTH TX BY MID MORNING WITH AT LEAST A THREAT FOR ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

..DARROW.. 05/18/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

LAT...LON 27989883 26909699 25689706 25879889 27119991 27989883

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 183

WWUS20 KWNS 181005
SEL3
SPC WW 181005
TXZ000-CWZ000-181000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 183
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
505 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 183 ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 183

WWUS20 KWNS 181003
SEL3
SPC WW 181003
TXZ000-CWZ000-181000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 183
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
503 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 183 ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

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KRLX [180934]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRLX 180934
LSRRLX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
534 AM EDT TUE MAY 18 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 W JULIAN 38.15N 81.89W
05/17/2010 LINCOLN WV BROADCAST MEDIA

FLOODING FROM AREA CREEKS IN ALKOL COMMUNITY.

&&

$$

NWEBB

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 180858
SWOD48
SPC AC 180858

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

VALID 211200Z - 261200Z

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE GREAT PLAINS AND A HIGHLY MERIDIONAL
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WRN STATES. AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH...THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT DEVELOPING A LARGE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND MS VALLEY ON SATURDAY/DAY 5. THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE FROM HERE WITH THE ECMWF DEVELOPING AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW IN THE SW U.S BY SUNDAY/DAY 6 AND THE GFS MOVING THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH ENEWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH A LEAD SYSTEM MOVING
NEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IF THE GFS SOLUTION IS CLOSE TO CORRECT.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THIS SCENARIO
MAINLY DUE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH WOULD NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE IN THE NRN PLAINS. EVEN WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY...SEVERE THREAT
COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT ENOUGH FOR AN OUTLOOK AREA IN
THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD.

..BROYLES.. 05/18/2010

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KCLE [180841]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KCLE 180841
LSRCLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
441 AM EDT TUE MAY 18 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0310 AM TSTM WND DMG WAKEMAN 41.26N 82.40W
05/14/2010 HURON OH PUBLIC

SEVERAL LARGE BRANCHES DOWN

&&

$$

KIELTYKA

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 180729
SWODY3
SPC AC 180728

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX
AND LOWER MS VALLEY...

...ARKLATX/LOWER MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS
THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS
OF THE REGION DUE TO STRONG WARM ADVECTION. AREAS THAT CLEAR OUT
AROUND MIDDAY SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH
MODEL FORECAST SHOWING SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F AS FAR NORTH AS SRN
ARK. AS A MID-LEVEL JET APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...THE NAM...GFS AND NAMKF ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
INITIATING A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ERN OK AND WRN AR IN
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET. THIS JET SHOULD CREATE STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS
THE ARKLATEX INCREASE 0-6 KM SHEAR TO ABOUT 50 KT WHICH COMBINED
WITH THE STRONG INSTABILITY SUGGESTS SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY. THE
NAM AND NAMKF APPEAR TO ORGANIZE A LINE OF STORMS THURSDAY EVENING
SUGGESTING ROTATING STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME EMBEDDED IN A
SQUALL-LINE.

THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ELEVATED STORMS WILL MOVE NEWD AWAY
FROM THE SLIGHT RISK AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING WITH DISCRETE
STORMS INITIATING DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SE OK AND NE TX. SOME
OF THE STRONGER CORES MAY BECOME SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES POSSIBLE. AS STORMS CONGEAL IN THE EARLY EVENING...A
TRANSITION TO LINEAR MODE SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE WIND DAMAGE
POTENTIAL INCREASING ACROSS THE ERN PART OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. AS
THE EVENT APPROACHES AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES CONCERNING THE
SCENARIO ABOVE...AN UPGRADE TO THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY BECOME
NECESSARY.

..BROYLES.. 05/18/2010

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KEWX [180659]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 180659
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
159 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0158 AM FLASH FLOOD DEL RIO 29.38N 100.90W
05/18/2010 VAL VERDE TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

CINEGIAS STREET AND INDUSTRIAL BLVD IN DEL RIO ARE
CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000298

$$

AKF

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0604

ACUS11 KWNS 180623
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180623
TXZ000-180800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0604
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0123 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 183...

VALID 180623Z - 180800Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 183
CONTINUES.

CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SAG SWD ACROSS SEVERE
WW#183. MUCH OF THE EARLIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED IN
INTENSITY EAST OF I-35...HOWEVER AN UPWARD EVOLVING MCS IS NOTED
ALONG/JUST NORTH OF OUTFLOW FROM DIMMIT COUNTY...NWWD INTO NRN
MEXICO SOUTH OF DRT. IT APPEARS THE MCS MAY BE AIDED IN PART DUE TO
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED JUST UPSTREAM OF THIS DEEP
CONVECTION. LATEST THINKING IS THE MCS WILL CONTINUE ITS SEWD
MOVEMENT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...ENHANCED BY A WEAK LLJ THAT
SHOULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL INFLOW FOR FORWARD PROPAGATING CLUSTERS.
MOVEMENT IS NOT PARTICULARLY FAST BUT ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL COULD
ACCOMPANY AN OTHERWISE HEAVY RAIN-PRODUCING SYSTEM.

..DARROW.. 05/18/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

LAT...LON 29400019 28309870 27339841 27149965 28680152 29400019

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KPDT [180605]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS56 KPDT 180605
LSRPDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1104 PM PDT MON MAY 17 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0346 PM HAIL 10 SE CONDON 45.13N 120.04W
05/17/2010 M1.00 INCH GILLIAM OR PUBLIC

REPORT OF HEAVY RAIN AND UP TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL. THE
HAIL FELL RANGING FROM NICKLE TO QUARTER SIZE FOR 10
MINUTES AND COATED THE GROUND. RAIN FROM THE HEAVY DOWN
POUR COVERED THE BLACK TOP IN A MATTER OF MINUTES ALONG
STRETCHES OF THE COUNTY ROAD.

0433 PM HEAVY RAIN 9 WNW RUGGS 45.32N 119.84W
05/17/2010 M0.62 INCH MORROW OR TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY THUNDERSTORM RAIN OVER ABOUT 45 MINUTES

0536 PM HAIL 9 WNW PILOT ROCK 45.54N 118.99W
05/17/2010 M1.50 INCH UMATILLA OR PUBLIC

HAIL HAS BEEN FALLING FOR 5 MINUTES WITH THE LARGEST
MEASURED AT WALNUT SIZE. THE AVERAGE BEING BETWEEN NICKLE
AND QUARTER SIZE. THE HAIL COMPLETELY COATED THE GROUND.
WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WINDS.

0623 PM TSTM WND GST 9 N PENDLETON 45.81N 118.82W
05/17/2010 E60.00 MPH UMATILLA OR TRAINED SPOTTER

60 MPH WINDS CAUSE A DUST STORM IN FRESHLY PLOWED FIELDS
NORTH OF PENDLETON AND LIMITED THE VISIBILITY TO LESS
THAN A MILE. THE WIND HAS STOPPED AND HEAVY RAIN IS
FALLING CURRENTLY.

&&

$$

RQB

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 180601
SWODY2
SPC AC 180600

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WRN OK AND NW
TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS...

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF
WRN/CNTRL OK AND NW TX WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND ASSOCIATED
NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A 35 TO 45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE JET SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS NRN OK AND SRN KS WITH THIS CONVECTION
MOVING NEWD AWAY FROM THE MODERATE RISK AREA BY AFTERNOON. THE
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL HELP TRANSPORT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD SETTING UP
A BROAD WARM SECTOR FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE EWD ACROSS OK AND
NORTH TX. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE ALONG
THIS CORRIDOR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORMS
INITIATING NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF A SFC LOW ACROSS THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE MOVING INTO WRN OK. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF NORTHWEST TX AND MOVE EWD ACROSS NORTH TX
BY EARLY EVENING.

ETA-KF FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA ARE
IMPRESSIVE SHOWING MLCAPE FROM 3000 J/KG IN WCNTRL OK TO 4000 J/KG
ACROSS PARTS OF NW TX. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG INSTABILITY...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 40 TO 45 KT WITH 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE
RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...THE NAM AND GFS
SOLUTIONS DEVELOP A 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
WHICH WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TORNADOES ESPECIALLY AS
SUPERCELLS MATURE. A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL JUST TO THE WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET MAX. SOME POTENTIAL
SHOULD ALSO EXIST FOR A DAMAGING WIND EVENT AS STORMS CONGEAL ACROSS
ECNTRL OK AND NCNTRL TX DURING THE EVENING. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO MAY DEVELOP SWD ALONG A
DRYLINE IN WCNTRL TX WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. SEVERE STORMS WITH A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE NWWD ACROSS SRN KS INTO FAR SE CO WHERE THE MODELS
SHOW AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY.

SOME UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST WITH THE SCENARIO ABOVE. THE
GFS...NAM AND ETA-KF SOLUTIONS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING
THE LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
GFS MUCH FURTHER EAST. THE NAM INITIATES CONVECTION ALONG THE WRN
EDGE OF INSTABILITY AND THIS SOLUTION SEEMS MOST REASONABLE.
HOWEVER...BOTH SOLUTIONS MAY BE SOMEWHAT CORRECT WITH THE GFS
FOCUSING MORE ON A SEVERE THREAT IN ERN OK AND THE ARKLATEX ON A
WING OF WARM ADVECTION.

..BROYLES.. 05/18/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 180600
SWODY1
SPC AC 180559

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH AMERICA DURING THE
PERIOD. LARGELY CUT-OFF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN/MIGRATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...WHILE A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CA/NV ADVANCES
EASTWARD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS VICINITY TODAY...AND THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS...LEE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL FAVOR A MORE PROMINENT LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE REGIME
ACROSS A BROAD-NORTH SOUTH EXTENT OF THE ROCKIES FRONT RANGE/HIGH
PLAINS...WHILE A CONVECTIVELY MODIFIED FRONTAL ZONE OTHERWISE
RETREATS NORTHWARD ACROSS TX. IN THE EAST...A COLD
FRONT/OCCLUSIONARY FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES/CAROLINAS.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO SOUTH TX...
MULTIPLE MCS/S WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST TX/PERHAPS ADJACENT OK...AS WELL AS
SOUTH TX. A FEW SEVERE TSTMS MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING BRUNT OF LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS AND
STRENGTHENING/DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...COMBINED WITH SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS EASTERN NM/SOUTHEAST CO AND NNW-WARD MOISTURE
RETURN...WILL LEAD TO AN APPRECIABLE SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE
THROUGH MID/AFTERNOON...VIA MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG THE EASTERN CO/NORTHEAST NM HIGHER
TERRAIN...AS WELL AS THE NORTH-SOUTH EXTENT OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS
FAR EASTERN NM/FAR WEST TX. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES/MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR/VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL BE
MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT...WITH LARGE HAIL
AND SOME TORNADOES ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO/FAR EASTERN NM AND MUCH OF WEST
TX. WITH A MODERATE LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE
EVENING...THE RELATIVELY GREATEST TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE/ADJACENT TX SOUTH PLAINS IN VICINITY OF
A SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT/DRYLINE /AND PERHAPS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/
FOCUSED TRIPLE POINT.

OTHERWISE...THE NOCTURNALLY INCREASING/MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE OF
ONE OR MORE SOUTHEAST MOVING MCS/S TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUED BOUTS OF
SEVERE HAIL ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING DAMAGING
WIND THREAT DURING THE EVENING /MOST PROBABLE ACROSS NORTHWEST TX
AND PERHAPS ADJACENT WESTERN OK/.

...MT AND ADJACENT NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /MAINLY 40S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF MT TODAY AS LEE SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS/TROUGHING OCCURS. WITH TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON OWING TO ONE OR MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES/OROGRAPHIC FORCING...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AS MUCH AS
500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE /HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MT/ WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SOME STRONG/SEVERE
TSTMS...WITH HAIL THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

...FL...
SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW DOWNBURSTS/MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FL PENINSULA.

..GUYER/ROGERS.. 05/18/2010

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