MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0607

ACUS11 KWNS 181742
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181742
COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-181945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0607
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY...EXTREME SWRN NEB PNHDL...ERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 181742Z - 181945Z

MID-DAY MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE LEE CYCLONE BEGINNING TO DEEPEN NE OF
KPUB AND AN EVOLVING DENVER CYCLONE. MID-LVL DRY SLOT WITHIN NOSE
OF THE UPR LVL JET STREAK WAS SURGING INTO CO. THERE HAVE BEEN
VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID/HIGH-LVL CIRROFORM CLOUDS TO THE LEE OF THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT MODEST HEATING HAS OCCURRED ACROSS ESPECIALLY ERN
CO. LLVL SELYS WERE TRANSPORTING UPR 40S/NEAR 50 DEG F SFC DEW
POINTS TO THE E/NE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONES AND GIVEN STEEP
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...MLCAPES WERE ALREADY APPROACHING 1000 J/KG.

HIGH-BASED CBS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ALONG/W OF THE DIVIDE PER VSB
SATL IMAGERY. ACTIVITY MAY TRY TO ROOT INTO THE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER E OF THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH THE AFTN AS CINH CONTINUES TO
ERODE /LIKELY WITH MID-60S TEMPERATURES/. INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
MAY OCCUR INVOF THE DENVER CYCLONE WITH SUBSEQUENT DVLPMT SWD INTO
SERN CO AFTER 20-21Z. STORMS WILL MOVE ENE AND WILL GROW INTO
SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL OWING TO INCREASING EFFECTIVE SHEAR.
TORNADO THREATS WILL BE MAXIMIZED WITHIN THE DENVER CYCLONE/N SIDE
OF PALMER DIVIDE...BUT ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE IN
THE DISCUSSION AREA. EVENTUALLY... STORMS WILL CONGEAL INTO SVRL
LINEAR SEGMENTS AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP INTO THE LWR PLAINS TOWARD
NEB/KS BORDER WITH HIGH WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

..RACY.. 05/18/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 40240241 38650210 37840228 37240281 37200395 38200384
38970441 39090449 39960464 40480493 41150508 41570602
41990570 42140537 41870393 41260300 40240241

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.