KILM [290333]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KILM 290333
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1132 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES PAWLEY'S ISLAND 33.42N 79.13W
10/28/2007 GEORGETOWN SC LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGH TIDE SOUND SIDE FLOODING...WATER 4-5 INCHES DEEP ON
MINOR ROADWAYS.

&&

$$

RAS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 290045
SWODY1
SPC AC 290042

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 PM CDT SUN OCT 28 2007

VALID 290100Z - 291200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND HIGH PLAINS WITH A
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN SEABOARD. A STATIONARY FRONT
CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS CNTRL FL WITH SFC DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF THE
FRONT IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S F. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FL MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PREVENT ANY STORMS FROM BECOMING
ORGANIZED. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT
EXPECTED.

.BROYLES.. 10/29/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 281952
SWODY1
SPC AC 281949

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CDT SUN OCT 28 2007

VALID 282000Z - 291200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..CNTRL/SRN FL...
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS FCST. DEEP ENELY FLOW /10-15KFT/
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. FLOW REGIME CONTAINS NUMEROUS
LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE CNTRL/SRN PARTS OF THE
STATE. 12Z SOUNDINGS SAMPLED A WARM NOSE JUST ABOVE H7 THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HOSTILE FOR DEEP CONVECTION...WITH ONLY ISOLD
LIGHTNING STRIKES EXPECTED. HIGHER CHANCES FOR TSTMS WILL BE ATOP
THE GULF STREAM WATERS WELL OFFSHORE /REF THE ENHANCED TSTM GRAPHICS
AT HTTP://WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/EXPER/ENHTSTM/.

.RACY.. 10/28/2007

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 281727
SWODY2
SPC AC 281724

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT SUN OCT 28 2007

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
LARGELY ZONAL UPR FLOW REGIME WILL EVOLVE EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH
ACTIVE NRN STREAM RETREATING N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER AND WEAK
RIDGING TO THE S. UPR LOW 500 NM SW OF KSFO WILL EJECT NEWD AHEAD
OF A DEVELOPING NPAC TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL REACH CNTRL CA
MONDAY AFTN AND INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN W BY 12Z TUE. AT THE
SFC...COLD ANTICYCLONE WILL DOMINATE MOST ALL OF THE ERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS FL WHERE A STALLED FRONT
WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION.

..CNTRL/NRN CA...SRN ORE AND NRN GRT BASIN REGION...
MID/HIGH-LVL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE EJECTING UPR LOW...CONTRIBUTING TO AN ENHANCED
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL BE MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW CONVECTIVE TOWERS TO GROW INTO THE ICING LAYER
TO YIELD LIGHTNING...PRIMARILY MONDAY AFTN/NIGHT ACROSS CNTRL CA AND
THE NRN/CNTRL SIERRA REGION.

..FL...
DEEP AND MOIST ELY FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH
NUMEROUS FAST MOVING SHOWER CLUSTERS TRAVERSING THE ERN...CNTRL AND
SRN PARTS OF THE STATE. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
QUITE MEAGER IN THIS TYPE OF FLOW REGIME AND TSTM PROSPECTS APPEAR
ON THE MARGIN OF A 10 PERCENT GENERAL TSTM OTLK. HOWEVER...SPORADIC
STRIKES MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY WITH STRONGER CELLS THAT APPROACH THE
ECOAST AND/OR DEVELOP ALONG/S OF THE FRONT WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
CAN HEAT THE MOST.

.RACY.. 10/28/2007

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KJAX [281623]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 281623
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1222 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1042 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES 1 N MAYPORT 30.39N 81.42W
10/28/2007 DUVAL FL OTHER FEDERAL

THE MAYPORT NOS TIDE GAUGE REPORTED 6.46 FT MLLW WHICH
WAS 0.22 FT ABOVE PREDICTED.

1130 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES 5 S DUNGENESS 30.67N 81.47W
10/28/2007 NASSAU FL OTHER FEDERAL

THE FERNANDINA NOS TIDE GAUGE REPORTED 8.58 FT MLLW WHICH
WAS 0.75 FT ABOVE PREDICTED TIDE.

&&

$$

ARS

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KILM [281548]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 281548
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1148 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES CAROLINA BEACH 34.04N 77.90W
10/28/2007 NEW HANOVER NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

CAROLINA BEACH NC AND PAWLEYS ISLAND SC REPORTED MINOR
HIGH TIDE SOUND SIDE FLOODING ONTO MINOR ROADWAYS AS NE
WINDS INCREASED WATER LEVELS 1/2 - 1 FT.

&&

$$

TM

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 281544
SWODY1
SPC AC 281542

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1042 AM CDT SUN OCT 28 2007

VALID 281630Z - 291200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

BROAD/COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER
QUEBEC/NEW ENGLAND TODAY...ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD
NORTHWARD OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES. ATTENDANT TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH...TRAILING PORTION OF A WESTERN ATLANTIC
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. RESIDUAL MOIST AIRMASS/LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE
COLD FRONT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY -- MLCAPE LESS THAN 500 J/KG --
WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...MODEST LAPSE
RATES/CLOUD COVER AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
INTENSITY TODAY. ELSEWHERE...UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST CURRENTLY
CENTERED NEAR 33N/130W WILL BEGIN TO PUSH TOWARD CA LATE IN THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS/NEAR CA IS
LIKELY TO WAIT UNTIL AFTER 12Z/29. OTHERWISE...INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND COOL/STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS.

.GUYER/HALES.. 10/28/2007

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KCHS [281533]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KCHS 281533
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1133 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES ISLE OF PALMS 32.79N 79.79W
10/28/2007 CHARLESTON SC FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

THE FIRE DEPARTMENT AT ISLE OF PALMS REPORTED HIGH TIDE
WITH SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION.

&&

$$

REV

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KCHS [281525]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 281525
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1125 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES ISLE OF PALMS 32.79N 79.79W
10/28/2007 CHARLESTON SC FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

THE FIRE DEPARTMENT AT ISLE OF PALMS REPORTED HIGH SURF
WITH SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION.

&&

$$

REV

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KCHS [281520]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 281520
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1120 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1036 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.94W
10/28/2007 CHARLESTON SC OTHER FEDERAL

A HIGH TIDE LEVEL OF 7.42 FT MEAN LOWER LOW WATER WAS
MEASURED BY THE NOS STATION ON CHARLESTON HARBOR.

1036 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES TYBEE ISLAND 32.00N 80.85W
10/28/2007 CHATHAM GA OTHER FEDERAL

A HIGH TIDE LEVEL OF 9.24 FT MEAN LOWER LOW WATER WAS
MEASURED BY THE NOS STATION ON FORT PULASKI.

&&

$$

REV

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 281225
SWODY1
SPC AC 281223

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0723 AM CDT SUN OCT 28 2007

VALID 281300Z - 291200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

THE BROAD...COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS
FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY...ALLOWING UPPER
RIDGE TO BEGIN TO BUILD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS
STATES. MEANWHILE...EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
HINDER RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST AREAS. THE PRIMARY EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE
FL PENINSULA WHERE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A THREAT
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRAVERSING EAST TO WEST
ACROSS THE PENINSULA. RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND LIMITED
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY TODAY.

.HART.. 10/28/2007

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 280851
SWOD48
SPC AC 280851

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CDT SUN OCT 28 2007

VALID 311200Z - 051200Z

..SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A GENERALLY
ZONAL SPLIT UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE U.S. WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BUT...A SERIES OF COLD INTRUSIONS
TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...THROUGH THE GULF COAST AND ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW OF
MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO...PRIOR TO THE EVOLUTION OF A LARGE
SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES. HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR/ SOUTHEAST
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...PARTICULARLY BEFORE TROPICAL SYSTEM TURNS
SOUTHEAST OF THE PENINSULA DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PARTS OF THE
COMING WORK WEEK. CURRENT PROJECTED PATH OF THIS SYSTEM SUGGESTS
SEVERE POTENTIAL ALONG SOUTHEAST U.S. COASTAL AREAS WILL BE MINIMAL.

.KERR.. 10/28/2007

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 280629
SWODY3
SPC AC 280627

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0127 AM CDT SUN OCT 28 2007

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVE IMPULSES PROGRESS THROUGH A LARGELY ZONAL
SPLIT UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE U.S. TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EASTERN U.S. SURFACE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND RETREAT OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST.
HOWEVER...A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST OF
THIS FEATURE...THROUGH THE GULF STATES...IS PROGGED TO BE SLOW TO
BREAK DOWN. AND...WITH A DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN...POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF
THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES APPEARS
NEGLIGIBLE.

..SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
UNCERTAINTY IS LARGE. BUT...MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT
STRENGTHENING EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS...WELL TO THE NORTH OF
THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM...COULD CONTRIBUTE TO SIZABLE
CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ALONG SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREAS
BY LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THIS WILL
OCCUR IN THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST...NEARLY SATURATED...AND AT LEAST
WEAKLY POSITIVELY BUOYANT BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS...A LOW POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ACCOMPANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

.KERR.. 10/28/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 280527
SWODY1
SPC AC 280526

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 AM CDT SUN OCT 28 2007

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..CNTRL AND S FL...

GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE ERN U.S. AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AREA WILL RESULT IN ELY LOW-MID LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS FL THROUGH SUNDAY. A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PERSIST
WITH RICHEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SRN PART OF STATE S OF
STALLED FRONT. GIVEN THE RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DRYER MID
LEVEL PROFILES...INSTABILITY MAY BE A LITTLE GREATER OVER SRN FL.
HOWEVER...OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL REMAIN MARGINAL WITH
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CAPE. MOREOVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS CNTRL FL SHOW PRESENCE OF A MODEST MID LEVEL INVERSION. AREAS
OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WARM
WATERS OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL AND SPREAD WWD. AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE MODERATED SOMEWHAT BY THE MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

.DIAL.. 10/28/2007

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 280521
SWODY2
SPC AC 280519

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 AM CDT SUN OCT 28 2007

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A MORE ZONAL PATTERN WILL DEVELOP
DURING THIS PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM OF A SPLIT IN THE UPPER FLOW ALONG
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THE STRONGER NORTHERN
BRANCH WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT TO THE NORTH OF THE EASTERN
CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER...WHILE BROAD RIDGING IN THE WEAKER SOUTHERN
BRANCH...IN PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH...DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION. HOWEVER...MODELS
SUGGEST THAT A COLD SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRONG ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN STATES...AND A STALLED SURFACE FRONT WILL
LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO AREAS NEAR
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

FARTHER WEST...THE CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...NOW OFF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST...IS PROGGED TO FINALLY WEAKEN AND
ACCELERATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD...AS AN UPSTREAM IMPULSE DIGS TOWARD
NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS.

THE EVOLVING PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO
SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION ANYWHERE WITHIN THE U.S. MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT. AND...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE.

..CNTRL PAC COASTAL AREAS INTO PARTS OF THE NRN GREAT BASIN...
MODEL PROG 500 MB COLD CORE OF AROUND -18C...ASSOCIATED WITH
REMNANTS OF CLOSED LOW...IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD. BUT...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK INFLUX OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE...
DESTABILIZATION COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.
HOWEVER...IF THIS OCCURS...ACTIVITY PROBABLY WILL BE SPARSE IN
COVERAGE AT BEST.

..FLORIDA...
A RELATIVELY MOIST EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
PENINSULA MONDAY. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MODELS SUGGEST THAT WEAK
BOUNDARY LAYER BASED DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR. THIS COULD SUPPORT
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT PROBABILITIES OF
STORMS WILL REMAIN NEAR MINIMUM THRESHOLDS FOR A CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.

.KERR.. 10/28/2007

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