SWODY3
SPC AC 280627
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0127 AM CDT SUN OCT 28 2007
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVE IMPULSES PROGRESS THROUGH A LARGELY ZONAL
SPLIT UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE U.S. TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EASTERN U.S. SURFACE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND RETREAT OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST.
HOWEVER...A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST OF
THIS FEATURE...THROUGH THE GULF STATES...IS PROGGED TO BE SLOW TO
BREAK DOWN. AND...WITH A DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN...POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF
THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES APPEARS
NEGLIGIBLE.
..SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
UNCERTAINTY IS LARGE. BUT...MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT
STRENGTHENING EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS...WELL TO THE NORTH OF
THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM...COULD CONTRIBUTE TO SIZABLE
CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ALONG SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREAS
BY LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THIS WILL
OCCUR IN THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST...NEARLY SATURATED...AND AT LEAST
WEAKLY POSITIVELY BUOYANT BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS...A LOW POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ACCOMPANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
.KERR.. 10/28/2007
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