ACUS02 KWNS 190601
SWODY2
SPC AC 190559
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2008
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CAROLINAS WSWWD INTO
AL...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS THE ERN HALF
OF THE U.S. THIS PERIOD...AS A LARGE VORTEX REMAINS OVER ERN CANADA.
MEANWHILE...AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST UPSTREAM
OF THE ERN TROUGH...AS A SECOND TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN STATES
WILL BE FORCED TO DIG SSEWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. IN BETWEEN...A
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AS WELL...REMAINING CENTERED OVER THE ERN
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN AHEAD OF THE WRN TROUGH...WITH A LEE TROUGH
EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. FURTHER E...A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/GA AND THE GULF
COAST STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
...CAROLINAS WSWWD ACROSS PARTS OF GA/AL...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY OFF
THE CAROLINA/VA COAST...AHEAD OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING RAPIDLY
EWD WITHIN STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW FIELD ALOFT. TRAILING COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SETTLE SWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND GA/AL/MS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND WITH MOIST/DESTABILIZING AIRMASS EXPECTED S OF THE
FRONT...STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
WHILE NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ROUGHLY
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT AND THUS NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELD --
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND INTO GA -- NONETHELESS IS
SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN ADDITION TO
HAIL.
WHILE STORMS MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY WANE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF
DIURNAL AIRMASS STABILIZATION.
...SRN AND WRN MT/SRN ID...
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE PAC NW THIS
PERIOD...AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH. WHILE INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST TO BE LIMITED...STRONG UVV SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED/HIGH-BASED STORMS.
WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASING TO 40 TO 50 KT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
ATOP A DEEP SURFACE-BASED MIXED LAYER...POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS MAY EXIST WITH A FEW STRONGER CELLS.
THUS...WILL INTRODUCE 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY ACROSS THIS AREA.
...PARTS OF WY SWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS INVOF LEE TROUGH...AIDED IN SOME AREAS BY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
COMPONENT OF THE WIND FIELD.
WHILE INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED...MODEST NWLYS ALOFT
ATOP LOW-LEVEL SELYS COMBINED WITH DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS A
LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY SEVERE GUSTS WITH A FEW STRONGER
STORMS MOVING SEWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
..GOSS.. 05/19/2008
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