SWODY2
SPC AC 191723
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2008
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS WWD
INTO PARTS OF THE DEEP S...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPR FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED ON TUESDAY AS THE NPAC
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WRN STATES AND LARGE ERN CANADA VORTEX DEEPENS
ACROSS ERN NORTH AMERICA. IN BETWEEN...A STRONG RIDGE WILL
EXIST...CENTERED OVER THE ERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE PD.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE PAC NW
AND INTO THE GRT BASIN AHEAD OF THE WRN TROUGH....WITH A LEE TROUGH
EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. FARTHER E...A COLD FRONT IS
FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/GA AND THE GULF CST
STATES THROUGH THE PD.
...CAROLINAS WWD INTO THE DEEP S...
MID-LVL WAVE RIDING ALONG THE SRN RIM OF THE ERN CANADA VORTEX WILL
TRAVEL FROM THE UPR MIDWEST TO THE SRN MID-ATLC CST AND CAROLINAS BY
EARLY TUESDAY AFTN...THEN OFF THE CST LATER IN THE DAY. CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT 12Z TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN
APPALACHIANS ALONG THE NOSE OF A STRONG SWLY LLJ TIED TO THE
IMPULSE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT QUICKLY NEWD AND OFFSHORE THE
MID-ATLC CST AS THE IMPULSE EJECTS OUT TO SEA.
MEANWHILE...THE TRAILING FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL SETTLE S AND
E INTO THE ERN CAROLINAS...GA AND AL DURING PEAK HEATING. BY
THEN...VEERED WLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT 60S DEW POINTS ALONG/S
OF THE FRONT AND HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
FOR ISOLD TO WDLY SCT TSTMS AMIDST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THIS REGION
WILL SIT AMIDST 40-50 KTS OF WLY H5 FLOW...RESULTING IN A
UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP SHEAR REGIME SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS.
THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STEEP...LARGE
HAIL AND/OR DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF
SHEAR. MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE RAPIDLY DURING THE EVENING.
...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN W/NRN ROCKIES...
PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO BETWEEN 0.75-1 INCH WILL SURGE NEWD AHEAD
OF THE UPR TROUGH AND ASSOCD COLD FRONT INTO PARTS OF THE REGION
DURING PEAK HEATING. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
FOR TSTMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT FROM NRN NV NEWD INTO PARTS OF ID
AND WRN MT. DEEP LAYER FLOW FIELD WILL STRONGLY BACK WITH
TIME...BUT REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST ISOLD ORGANIZED FAST
MOVING AND HIGHER-BASED STORMS CAPABLE OF DMGG WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS HAIL. PARTS OF THIS REGION MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A
CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK SHOULD THE INSTABILITY FIELDS BECOME STRONGER
THAN FCST.
...HIGH PLAINS...
ISOLD TSTMS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INVOF LEE
TROUGH...AIDED IN SOME AREAS BY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE
WIND FIELD.
WHILE INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED...MODEST NWLYS ALOFT
ATOP LOW-LVL SELYS COMBINED WITH A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST
A LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY SEVERE GUSTS WITH A FEW STRONGER
STORMS MOVING SEWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
..RACY.. 05/19/2008
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