KTFX [010402]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 010402
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
901 PM MST MON NOV 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E EAST GLACIER PARK 48.45N 113.20W
11/30/2009 M61.00 MPH GLACIER MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

61 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED AT THE TWO MEDICINE BRIDGE DOT
SENSOR NEAR EAST GLACIER PARK

0139 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW CUT BANK 48.60N 112.38W
11/30/2009 M60.00 MPH GLACIER MT ASOS

60 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED AT THE CUT BANK AIRPORT

0145 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 W BYNUM 47.98N 112.59W
11/30/2009 M75.00 MPH TETON MT MESONET

75 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED AT THE DELLWO MSCN SITE

0315 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 NNW SUNBURST 48.96N 111.96W
11/30/2009 M62.00 MPH TOOLE MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

62 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED AT THE SWEET GRASS DOT SENSOR

0338 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NW PENDROY 48.08N 112.33W
11/30/2009 M57.00 MPH TETON MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

57 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED AT THE PENDROY DOT SENSOR

0515 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.37N 113.10W
11/30/2009 M71.00 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

71 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED AT THE DEEP CREEK RAWS

&&

$$

HOENISCH

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KDLH [302228]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 302228 CCA
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
428 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0226 PM SNOW KABETOGAMA 48.44N 93.03W
11/30/2009 M1.5 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0326 PM SNOW ELY 47.91N 91.85W
11/30/2009 M2.0 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0326 PM SNOW LUTSEN 47.64N 90.71W
11/30/2009 M1.2 INCH COOK MN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

SCW

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KDLH [302228]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 302228
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
428 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0226 PM SNOW KABETOGAMA 48.44N 93.03W
11/30/2009 M1.5 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0226 PM SNOW KABETOGAMA 48.44N 93.03W
11/30/2009 M1.5 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0326 PM SNOW ELY 47.91N 91.85W
11/30/2009 M2.0 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0326 PM SNOW LUTSEN 47.64N 90.71W
11/30/2009 M1.2 INCH COOK MN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

SCW

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KTFX [302046]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 302046
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
146 PM MST MON NOV 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1227 PM NON-TSTM WND GST CUT BANK 48.63N 112.33W
11/30/2009 M59 MPH GLACIER MT ASOS

THE 301956Z OBSERVATION AT KCTB AIRPORT SHOWED A PEAK
GUST OF 59 MPH AT 1927Z.

&&

$$

EGUSTAFS

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KSHV [302038]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 302038
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
238 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0557 PM TORNADO 1 NNW NEW BOSTON 33.47N 94.43W
11/29/2009 BOWIE TX NWS STORM SURVEY

AN EF1 BRIEFLY TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN IN NEW BOSTON TEXAS
ALONG PEARLY STREET. A MOBILE HOME WAS DESTROYED AND 4
OTHER HOMES SUSTAINED MODERATE TO MAJOR DAMAGE. SEVERAL
TREES WERE UPROOTED. THE TORNADO CROSSED INTERSTATE 30
AND QUICKLY DISSIPATED. THE PATH WAS 0.5 MILES LONG...75
YARDS WIDE AND ON THE GROUND FOR LESS THAN A MINUTE.

&&

$$

04

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 301940
SWODY1
SPC AC 301939

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0139 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009

VALID 302000Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

PREV FCST APPEARS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.

..RACY.. 11/30/2009

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CST MON NOV 30 2009/

...SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW CROSSING THE OH
VALLEY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SEWD ACROSS THE N
CENTRAL AND NE GULF COAST TODAY...AND OFF THE SE ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT. WEAK INSTABILITY/ASCENT WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INVOF THE MS DELTA UNTIL FROPA. FARTHER W...A CLOSED
LOW OVER NW MEXICO WILL MOVE EWD OVER NRN MEXICO AND APPROACH THE TX
BIG BEND EARLY TUESDAY. MID LEVEL ASCENT WITH DCVA DOWNSTREAM FROM
THE LOW OVER SW TX...AND LOW-LEVEL WAA OVER CENTRAL TX ON THE NOSE
OF A DEVELOPING LLJ...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED NEAR THE
END OF THE PERIOD ALONG THE STALLED FRONT JUST OFF THE LOWER TX
COAST...BUT THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE.

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KDLH [301827]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 301827
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1226 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 PM SNOW INTERNATIONAL FALLS 48.59N 93.41W
11/30/2009 M1.1 INCH KOOCHICHING MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0.07 LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

&&

$$

KK

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KDLH [301825]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 301825
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1225 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1158 AM SNOW KABETOGAMA 48.44N 93.03W
11/30/2009 M1.5 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

STILL SNOWING.

&&

$$

KK

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 301724
SWODY2
SPC AC 301723

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 AM CST MON NOV 30 2009

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SHIFT QUICKLY E THROUGH THE
NERN STATES TONIGHT AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA DIGS
INTO THE NRN PLNS STATES. A STRONGER SRN STREAM UPR LOW...NOW OVER
NWRN SONORA...IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE OVER SWRN TX EARLY
TUESDAY...THEN TURN ENE TO THE UPR TX CST/E TX BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A FAIR DEGREE OF MODEL SPREAD IN
THE TIMING AND LOCATION.

IN THE LWR LVLS...THE CDFNT TIED TO THE NRN STREAM WAVE EXITING THE
ERN SEABOARD WILL SETTLE SWD TO ALONG THE GA/FL BORDER AND EXTEND W
ALONG THE GULF CST. A LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE NWRN GULF OF
MEXICO TUESDAY AFTN IN ADVANCE OF THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM...EVENTUALLY
DEVELOPING ENE INTO SERN LA/SRN MS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...ALA THE
PREFERRED ECMWF/GFS.

...CNTRL/WRN GULF CSTL REGION...
POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION/SPORADIC TSTMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE OVER CNTRL
TX TUESDAY MORNING AND EXPAND E AND NE THROUGH THE NIGHT IN RESPONSE
TO INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCD WITH THE APCHG UPR LOW.
LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT RISKS FOR SVR TSTMS.

AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
FROM SRN LA EWD ACROSS SRN PARTS OF AL/MS AND THE FL PNHDL. LLVL
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A SLY COMPONENT AND INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY TUESDAY AFTN IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW
OVER THE NWRN GULF. BUOYS ALREADY SUGGEST DEW POINTS NEAR/EXCEEDING
70 DEG F S OF THE APCHG CDFNT...AND THE MOISTURE WILL LIKELY ADVECT
BACK N INTO AT LEAST CSTL SECTIONS OF SERN LA/MS/AL/FL PNHDL BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. INITIALLY...THE INCREASING WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO CONSIDERABLE SHOWERS/TSTMS THAT WILL PROBABLY
REINFORCE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...BUT A LATE NIGHT SURGE OF THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED. SFC-BASED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP READILY OVER
THE WATER S OF THE FRONT...THEN MOVE NWD ONTO THE CST BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY.

SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE QUITE STRONG...PARTICULARLY IN THE LLVLS AND
INVOF THE WRMFNT/SFC LOW. HERE...SFC SELYS WILL VEER/INCREASE
STRONGLY TO SSWLY 40-60 KTS AT H85...THEN SWLY 50-60 KTS AT H5.
THIS WILL BE QUITE SUPPORTIVE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION AND LLVL
ROTATION WITH THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR BEING WEAK INSTABILITY. FCST
WILL MAINTAIN LOW SVR PROBABILITIES...HOWEVER...MAINLY GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED MODEL UNCERTAINTIES AND WHAT WOULD PROBABLY END UP
BEING AN ISOLD TORNADO THREAT REGARDLESS OF MODEL CHOICE.

..RACY.. 11/30/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 301613
SWODY1
SPC AC 301612

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1012 AM CST MON NOV 30 2009

VALID 301630Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW CROSSING THE OH
VALLEY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SEWD ACROSS THE N
CENTRAL AND NE GULF COAST TODAY...AND OFF THE SE ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT. WEAK INSTABILITY/ASCENT WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INVOF THE MS DELTA UNTIL FROPA. FARTHER W...A CLOSED
LOW OVER NW MEXICO WILL MOVE EWD OVER NRN MEXICO AND APPROACH THE TX
BIG BEND EARLY TUESDAY. MID LEVEL ASCENT WITH DCVA DOWNSTREAM FROM
THE LOW OVER SW TX...AND LOW-LEVEL WAA OVER CENTRAL TX ON THE NOSE
OF A DEVELOPING LLJ...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED NEAR THE
END OF THE PERIOD ALONG THE STALLED FRONT JUST OFF THE LOWER TX
COAST...BUT THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE.

..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 11/30/2009

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KTWC [301529]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTWC 301529
LSRTWC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
829 AM MST MON NOV 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1057 AM TORNADO MCNEAL 31.60N 109.67W
11/29/2009 COCHISE AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

BRIEF TOUCHDOWN JUST SOUTH OF MCNEAL. ORIGINALLY REPORTED
AS A FUNNEL CLOUD...BUT POST-EVENT PHOTO OBTAINED THROUGH
BROADCAST MEDIA CONFIRMED CONTACT WITH THE GROUND. NO
APPARENT DAMAGE.

&&

$$

PYTLAK

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 301230
SWODY1
SPC AC 301229

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0629 AM CST MON NOV 30 2009

VALID 301300Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CNTRL GULF COAST...
SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM NWRN AL TO SWRN LA WILL ADVANCE EWD IN
CONCERT WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES TO MID-MS
RIVER VALLEY SHIFTING EWD. SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON ALONG THE SRN EXTENT OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BEFORE IT EXITS THE CNTRL GULF COAST. LATEST NAM/SREF
GUIDANCE SUGGEST MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY REACH SERN LA AND
THE MS/AL COAST BY 18Z. IF SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING CAN OVERCOME A
MOIST ADIABATIC THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE /AS SAMPLED BY 12Z LCH
RAOB/...UNIDIRECTIONAL MODERATE WLYS WOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR
LOW-TOPPED LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS.

...WRN TX...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF CA WILL EJECT EWD
REACHING CHIHUAHUA EARLY TUE. LARGE-SCALE FORCED ASCENT WILL
INCREASE DOWNSTREAM OF THIS WAVE WITH LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION STRENGTHENING ACROSS WRN/SRN TX. WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SHOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR W TX AND FARTHER E TOWARDS
THE BIG COUNTRY/EDWARDS PLATEAU BY 12Z/TUE. GFS/NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PARCELS ROOTED BETWEEN 700-600 MB WOULD BE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR CHARGE SEPARATION. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES ACCOMPANYING AN EXPANDING AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

..GRAMS/EVANS.. 11/30/2009

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 300950
SWOD48
SPC AC 300949

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 AM CST MON NOV 30 2009

VALID 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
LITTLE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT EARLY IN THE PERIOD (DAY 4 --
THU. DEC. 3) AS MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS SHIFT A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO
THE WRN ATLANTIC AHEAD OF A LARGE/HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS.

BY DAY 5...MODELS BEGIN DIVERGING...WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
TERMS OF THE NEXT/UPSTREAM FEATURE INVOF WRN CANADA/THE PAC NW
ALREADY EVIDENT BY 12Z FRI. DEC. 4. GIVEN THE
SIGNIFICANT/INCREASING MODEL DEVIATION WITH TIME...PREDICTABILITY
PRECLUDES ANY ASSESSMENT OF SEVERE POTENTIAL BEYOND DAY 4.

..GOSS.. 11/30/2009

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KVEF [300930]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 300930
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
130 AM PST MON NOV 30 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0641 PM NON-TSTM WND GST E KANE SPRINGS RAWS 37.25N 114.71W
11/28/2009 M59 MPH LINCOLN NV MESONET

&&

$$

MORGAN

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 300830
SWODY3
SPC AC 300829

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CST MON NOV 30 2009

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM FL/SERN AL/GA NEWD ACROSS
THE ERN CAROLINAS/SERN VA...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW CROSSING TX EARLY IN THE PERIOD IS PROGGED TO BEGIN
SHEARING/SHIFTING QUICKLY NEWD WITH TIME THIS PERIOD...AS A
LARGER/STRONGER UPPER TROUGH DIGS/EXPANDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL -- AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE ERN -- CONUS. AS THIS OCCURS...SURFACE LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION INITIALLY IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS...SHIFTING QUICKLY NNEWD TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION. IN CONJUNCTION...A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
SRN APPALACHIANS/ATLANTIC COAST STATES...APPROACHING OR REACHING THE
ATLANTIC COAST LATE. THIS FRONT/STORM SYSTEM SHOULD SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND SCATTERED BANDS OF STRONG/POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...ERN GULF COAST REGION INTO THE SOUTHEAST/CAROLINAS/SERN VA...
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY -- WITH A RESPECTABLE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
SEVERE STORMS AND POSSIBLY A HIGHER-END EVENT OR TWO -- APPEARS TO
BE EVOLVING FOR DAY 3...INITIALLY ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AND
ADJACENT AL/GA AND THEN SPREADING EWD/NEWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND SRN
ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ONSHORE ADVECTION OF BOTH GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED...AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS NNEWD WITH TIME.
THE EXACT WWD AND NWD FRINGES OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER-BASED MOISTURE
-- AND THUS SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY -- REMAIN UNCLEAR GIVEN
UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACK AND SPEED WITH WHICH
LOW-LEVEL COOL AIR LINGERING ON WRN FRINGES OF A WRN ATLANTIC HIGH
CAN ERODE. HAVING SAID THAT...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT WEAK
SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS FL AND MUCH OF
GA...AND NEWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS INTO AT LEAST ERN SC/ERN
NC AND EVENTUALLY SERN VA AHEAD OF THE SHARPENING/EWD-MOVING COLD
FRONT.

MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT WHILE PROGRESSING EWD...THE FRONT SHOULD
REMAIN ONSHORE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST REGION WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALLOWING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
CONVECTIVE/SEVERE POTENTIAL. AN INITIAL SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST
WITH THE NWD RETREAT OF A WARM FRONT...AND LATER WITH ONE OR MORE
BANDS OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

WHILE MODEST INSTABILITY AND STRONG FORCING/ASCENT SUGGEST
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION -- FURTHER HINDERING DESTABILIZATION
POTENTIAL...THIS STRONG ASCENT COMBINED WITH VERY STRONG/VEERING
FLOW WITH HEIGHT ATOP THE WARM SECTOR WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS
QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED BANDS/LINES OF CONVECTION AND LOCALLY
ROTATING/SUPERCELL STORMS. GIVEN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A
DYNAMIC...LOW-CAPE/HIGH-SHEAR EVENT SETTING UP...POTENTIAL FOR AN
OVER-FORECAST OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN AT LEAST
LOCALLY HIGH-END POTENTIAL ALSO EVIDENT...WILL INTRODUCE A LARGE
SLIGHT RISK AREA THIS FORECAST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF S FL...IT
APPEARS AT THIS POINT THAT THE THREAT SHOULD END FROM W-E WITH
TIME...EVENTUALLY REACHING -- OR MOVING OFF -- THE ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH 03/12Z.

..GOSS.. 11/30/2009

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 300659
SWODY2
SPC AC 300658

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CST MON NOV 30 2009

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE A STRONG NRN STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EXITS THE NORTHEAST/NEW
ENGLAND AND A SECOND DIGS SSEWD OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE/NRN
ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT FEATURE WITH RESPECT
TO CONVECTIVE WEATHER WILL BE THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS NRN MEXICO
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE RIO GRANDE DURING THE DAY...AND THEN CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL TX
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS IS PROGGED OVER THE WRN GULF...AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO/ACROSS TX. LATE IN THE PERIOD...THIS LOW
SHOULD APPROACH/MOVE INTO THE GULF COAST REGION -- AND WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. ELSEWHERE...A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
DIGGING NRN STREAM TROUGH.

...TX EWD INTO CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED/ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF SRN AND ERN TX THROUGH THE DAY...IN ZONE OF 850 TO 700 MB
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM. LIMITED
INSTABILITY WILL...HOWEVER...PRECLUDE APPRECIABLE SEVERE POTENTIAL.

HAVING SAID THAT...SEVERE THREAT IS PROGGED TO BEGIN INCREASING FROM
SRN LA EWD ACROSS SRN MS/SRN AL INTO THE FL PANHANDLE DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. HERE...SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE WRN GULF WILL BRING MOIST LOW-LEVEL
GULF AIRMASS ONSHORE. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED MOST OF THE PERIOD...BUT AREAS INVOF THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY MAY EXPERIENCE SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTENING TO RESULT IN MINIMAL SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY -- MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WHILE THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED...VERY STRONG
SHEAR PROFILES ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF THE
LOW...WITH SURFACE SELYS VEERING/INCREASING TO SSWLY AT 40 TO 60 KT
AT 850 MB...AND THEN TO SWLY AT 40 TO 60 KT AT H5. RESULTING SHEAR
PROFILES WILL BE QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF BOTH STORM ORGANIZATION AND
LOW-LEVEL ROTATION. THEREFORE...WILL INTRODUCE 5% SEVERE
PROBABILITY FROM SRN LA EWD INTO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE...TO ACCOUNT
FOR WHAT WILL LIKELY BE PRIMARILY AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. WHILE
CONTINUING MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE GULF LOW PRECLUDES A MORE
FOCUSED/POTENTIALLY SLIGHT RISK FORECAST ATTM...AREA MAY REQUIRE
SLIGHT RISK UPGRADE IN LATER FORECASTS AS THE SURFACE LOW EVOLUTION
AND ASSOCIATED IMPLICATIONS REGARDING THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOME MORE
CLEAR.

..GOSS.. 11/30/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 300551
SWODY1
SPC AC 300550

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2009

VALID 301200Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT SHOWING A LARGE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING
EWD INTO THE NERN STATES THIS FORECAST PERIOD...S OF A VORTEX
ANCHORED OVER JAMES BAY/NRN QUEBEC. MEANWHILE...A CLOSED UPPER
LOW...INITIALLY CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF CA...WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD
INTO NRN MEXICO. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM OF THE
CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE NERN UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD EXTEND FROM NEW ENGLAND SWWD THROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIANS TO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND OFF THE TX COAST AT 12Z TODAY. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP EWD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND TO MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD
BY EVENING...AND REACH NRN FL INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY 12Z
TUESDAY.

...SRN LA TO SWRN AL...
AT 12Z TODAY...SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING
ALONG THE SRN EXTENT OF THE COLD FRONT FROM LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE
TX COAST. LIMITED DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT DUE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE...IF ANY...SURFACE HEATING.
THIS COMBINED WITH DIMINISHING UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE NERN STATES SUGGESTS TSTM TRENDS SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH EWD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...WITH TSTMS CONTINUING
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

...PART OF SRN NM/FAR W TX TO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION AND
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SPREADING EWD AHEAD OF THE NRN MEXICO CLOSED
LOW SUGGEST SHOWERS/EMBEDDED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS REGION. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE LIKELY TOWARD THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

..PETERS/SMITH.. 11/30/2009

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