Sunday, April 7, 2013

KREV [072101]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KREV 072101
LSRREV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
201 PM PDT SUN APR 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0210 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 NE INCLINE VILLAGE 39.31N 119.88W
04/07/2013 M85.00 MPH WASHOE NV OTHER FEDERAL

MEASURED ON SLIDE MOUNTAIN AT 9650 FEET.

0859 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 11 ENE FORT BIDWELL 41.91N 119.94W
04/07/2013 M51.00 MPH WASHOE NV TRAINED SPOTTER

MEASURED BY REMOTE AUTOMATIC WEATHER STAION.

0105 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 S WASHOE CITY 39.26N 119.81W
04/07/2013 M48.00 MPH WASHOE NV DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

NDOT MEASURED 48MPH AT WASHOE VALLEY MILE MARKER 4 AT
5031 FEET.


&&

$$

JKIELHOR

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KICT [072044]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 072044
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
344 PM CDT SUN APR 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0342 PM HAIL 4 SE EUREKA 37.78N 96.24W
04/07/2013 E1.00 INCH GREENWOOD KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

PEA TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL COVERING K99


&&

$$

SMF

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0391

ACUS11 KWNS 072042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072042
KSZ000-072245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0391
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 PM CDT SUN APR 07 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 072042Z - 072245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...PROBABILITIES FOR STORM INITIATION AND CONTINGENT STORM
COVERAGE ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
--INITIALLY OVER W-CNTRL KS. A CONDITIONAL HAIL/WIND...AND PERHAPS
A TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS A RESULT. THE POSSIBILITY OF A
WATCH BEING ISSUED IS HIGHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW AN INCREASINGLY AGITATED
CU FIELD OVER NWRN KS WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY HAS RESULTED IN WEAK
TSTMS NEAR THE NWRN KS/SWRN NE BORDER. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
SLOW/GRADUAL NWD PROGRESSION OF A RESERVOIR OF MID-UPPER 50S
DEWPOINTS INTO S-CNTRL KS FROM N-CNTRL OK. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...THIS MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL KS BY EARLY
EVENING. THIS WILL PROBABLY YIELD A GREATER PROPENSITY FOR
BOUNDARY-LAYER BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE DRIER WELL-MIXED
AIRMASS OVER NWRN KS TENDS TO BECOME JUXTAPOSED WITH THE MORE
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS CURRENTLY FARTHER S OVER S-CNTRL KS.

STORM INITIATION/COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY INCREASE AS THE DRYLINE
CONTINUES TO SHARPEN OVER WRN KS LENDING AN UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ON THE NWRN EDGE OF THE NWD ADVANCING MOISTURE. THIS
WILL COINCIDE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO
THE TX/OK PANHANDLES THIS EVENING. GIVEN A SUPERCELL WIND PROFILE
AND MODERATE BUOYANCY /MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG/...A CONDITIONAL LARGE
HAIL/WIND THREAT EXISTS. IF A NEAR SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL WERE TO
DEVELOP PRIOR TO NOCTURNAL DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...A
SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY COULD EXIST FOR A TORNADO.

..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 04/07/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 37530006 38940016 39329920 39149832 38019785 37499826
37279898 37530006

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KICT [072034]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 072034
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
334 PM CDT SUN APR 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0333 PM HAIL CLIMAX 37.72N 96.22W
04/07/2013 E1.75 INCH GREENWOOD KS LAW ENFORCEMENT


&&

$$

SMF

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KICT [072031]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 072031
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
330 PM CDT SUN APR 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM HAIL CLIMAX 37.72N 96.22W
04/07/2013 E1.00 INCH GREENWOOD KS LAW ENFORCEMENT


&&

$$

SMF

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KBOI [072006]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOI 072006
LSRBOI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
206 PM MDT SUN APR 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM HAIL 5 NW MARSING 43.60N 116.88W
04/07/2013 E0.25 INCH CANYON ID TRAINED SPOTTER

BETWEEN MARSING AND HUSTON.

1252 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 WNW BOARD CORRAL MOUN 43.52N 117.24W
04/07/2013 M47.00 MPH MALHEUR OR MESONET

PEAK GUST IN THE HOUR ENDING AT 1252 PM MDT. NO
PRECIPITATION SINCE 1 AM. CURRENT TEMPS IN THE 40S.


&&

$$

VMILLS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 072002
SWODY1
SPC AC 072000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT SUN APR 07 2013

VALID 072000Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
FOR NW OK...MUCH OF KS...AND WRN/CENTRAL MO...

...WESTERN/NORTHERN OK AND KS TO CENTRAL MO THROUGH TONIGHT...
ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES TO EXISTING CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...WITH LITTLE
FLUCTUATION IN FORECAST REASONING AS PER PRIOR OUTLOOK DISCUSSION
BELOW. OF INITIAL CONCERN IS ONGOING TSTM CLUSTER/SUPERCELL ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KS INTO SOUTHWEST MO...REFERENCE SEVERE TSTM WATCH 83.
REGARDING THE SOURCE REGION AIRMASS...THE 18Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM
LAMONT OK IS INDICATIVE OF CONSIDERABLE MOISTENING WITHIN THE LOWEST
1 KM SINCE 11Z...WITH VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE OF
AROUND 1500 J/KG. OTHERWISE...INITIALLY HIGH-BASED TSTMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WITH MORE UNCERTAIN DEVELOPMENT
PROGRESSIVELY FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN OK/FAR NORTHWEST TX.

..GUYER.. 04/07/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT SUN APR 07 2013/

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH AN ASSOCIATED 100 KT JET
STREAK WILL DIG SEWD TO CA/NV THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE GRADUAL
DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES OCCUR OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SE
STATES. IN BETWEEN...A SERIES OF LOW-AMPLITUDE SPEED MAXIMA WILL
PROGRESS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THE LARGELY WLY FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LEE
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...AS WELL AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT NWD ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS.

...NW OK/KS TO CENTRAL MO THROUGH TONIGHT...
12Z SOUNDINGS AND RECENT SURFACE ANALYSES CONFIRM ONGOING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN INTO TX/OK/KS FROM THE WRN GULF BASIN...THOUGH
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS MAY BE A COUPLE
DEGREES TOO HIGH WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...THE EML NOTED IN THE AMA/MAF SOUNDINGS WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD NW TX AND WRN OK...LIKELY PROVIDING A SUFFICIENT CAP TO
LIMIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION PROSPECTS ALONG THE WRN OK/NW TX DRYLINE
AND NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE. THE N EDGE OF THE WARMER EML
RESIDES BETWEEN AMA AND DDC...AND EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THAT THE
MORE PROBABLE AREA FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL BE NEAR AND N OF THE KS/OK BORDER.

MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ACCOUNTING FOR AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE
LOW-MID 70S WITH SOME CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 58-60
F...SUPPORT MLCAPE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG WITH ONLY SMALL CIN ACROSS
NW OK AND ADJACENT AREAS OF KS. ADDITIONALLY... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF AN EMBEDDED SPEED MAX ALOFT OVER NRN NM AS
OF MID MORNING...WHICH SHOULD REACH THE NW OK/SW KS BORDER REGION BY
THIS EVENING. THUS...THE EXPECTATION FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR OR N OF THE OK/KS BORDER APPEARS
REASONABLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. STORMS THAT FORM IN THIS AREA WILL
LIKELY BECOME SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 50 KT...AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS. A TORNADO OR TWO WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH ANY SUPERCELLS ON THE N SIDE OF THE
RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES THIS
EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A STRENGTHENING LLJ.

OTHERWISE...A NWD INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL
WAA REGIME SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL/NE KS
INTO MO...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

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KALY [071945]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KALY 071945
LSRALY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
345 PM EDT SUN APR 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0340 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG ALBANY 42.66N 73.78W
04/07/2013 ALBANY NY TRAINED SPOTTER

ONE TREE BLOWN OVER BY WIND.


&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY1300025

$$

11

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KBOI [071929]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOI 071929
LSRBOI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
129 PM MDT SUN APR 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1255 PM NON-TSTM WND GST FLAGSTAFF HILL 44.81N 117.73W
04/07/2013 M48.00 MPH BAKER OR MESONET

FROM THE WSW 25G48 MPH IN THE LAST HOUR. GUSTED TO 40 MPH

WITH 0.02 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE HOUR ENDING AT 10 AM PDT.


&&

$$

VMILLS

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KICT [071921]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 071921
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
221 PM CDT SUN APR 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0220 PM HAIL 3 E AUGUSTA 37.69N 96.92W
04/07/2013 M1.75 INCH BUTLER KS STORM CHASER

GOLF BALL HAIL COVERING OLD HIGHWAY 54


&&

$$

SMF

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KICT [071919]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 071919
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
219 PM CDT SUN APR 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0210 PM HAIL 1 E AUGUSTA 37.69N 96.96W
04/07/2013 E1.00 INCH BUTLER KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

SMF

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 83

WWUS20 KWNS 071918
SEL3
SPC WW 071918
KSZ000-MOZ000-080200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 83
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
220 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST KANSAS
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 220 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 35
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES WEST OF
CHANUTE KANSAS TO 20 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF SPRINGFIELD
MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...INITIALLY ELEVATED STORMS NEAR ICT APPEAR TO BE
EVOLVING INTO SURFACE-BASED STORMS WITH MORE SUPERCELL STRUCTURE.
GIVEN THE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 50 KT...THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS/SUPERCELLS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO SW MO.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK...THOUGH ISOLATED
DAMAGING GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A SMALL MCS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27025.


...THOMPSON

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KBOI [071916]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOI 071916
LSRBOI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
116 PM MDT SUN APR 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0112 PM HAIL 5 W BOISE 43.61N 116.33W
04/07/2013 E0.25 INCH ADA ID NWS EMPLOYEE

OVERLAND WALMART 1 MINUTE OF HAIL NOT MIXED WITH RAIN.

0102 PM HAIL 2 E NAMPA 43.58N 116.52W
04/07/2013 M0.25 INCH CANYON ID TRAINED SPOTTER

ALSO LOW VISIBILITY ON INTERSTATE 84 NEAR SUGAR FACTORY
AT 1 PM REPORTED BY SEPARATE SPOTTER.

1252 PM NON-TSTM WND GST HORSE BUTTE 42.42N 115.23W
04/07/2013 E45.00 MPH OWYHEE ID MESONET

0.02 INCHES OF RAIN. WINDS GUSTED TO 44-45 MPH THE LAST
TWO HOURS.


&&

$$

VMILLS

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KICT [071912]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 071912
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
212 PM CDT SUN APR 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0209 PM HAIL AUGUSTA 37.69N 96.98W
04/07/2013 E1.00 INCH BUTLER KS EMERGENCY MNGR


&&

$$

SMF

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KICT [071907]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 071907
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
206 PM CDT SUN APR 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0205 PM HAIL 5 S ANDOVER 37.62N 97.14W
04/07/2013 M0.75 INCH BUTLER KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

SMF

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KICT [071903]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 071903
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
203 PM CDT SUN APR 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0202 PM HAIL 3 W AUGUSTA 37.69N 97.03W
04/07/2013 M1.00 INCH BUTLER KS EMERGENCY MNGR


&&

$$

SMF

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KBTV [071901]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBTV 071901
LSRBTV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
301 PM EDT SUN APR 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0222 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG SOUTH BURLINGTON 44.47N 73.17W
04/07/2013 CHITTENDEN VT FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

TREE DOWN ON A HOUSE ON WHITE STREET


&&

EVENT NUMBER BTV1300020

$$

NF

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KICT [071857]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 071857
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
156 PM CDT SUN APR 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0152 PM HAIL 3 N ROSE HILL 37.61N 97.13W
04/07/2013 M1.00 INCH BUTLER KS EMERGENCY MNGR


&&

$$

SMF

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0390

ACUS11 KWNS 071847
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071847
MOZ000-KSZ000-072045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0390
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0147 PM CDT SUN APR 07 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS / W-CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 071847Z - 072045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLD LARGE HAIL/WIND THREAT MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTN OVER
SERN KS AND EVENTUALLY FARTHER E INTO W-CNTRL MO.

DISCUSSION...DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER SPEED MAX APPROACHING THE REGION
FROM THE SRN ROCKIES...THE LATEST SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE NRN
EXTENT OF A PLUME OF NWD ADVANCING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO S-CNTRL
KS EWD INTO W-CNTRL MO. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN FROM THE UPPER
40S/NEAR 50 DEG F TO THE UPPER 50S DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE
70S EARLY THIS AFTN. RECENTLY...A FEW TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM AN
ACCAS FIELD SPREADING EWD ACROSS S-CNTRL KS.

ACCOUNTING FOR THE EXPECTED SURFACE CONDITIONS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW MLCAPE GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE BY
LATE AFTERNOON WITHIN A DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED STORMS /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/. DESPITE CONTINUED
MOISTENING WITH A LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME...A NEBULOUS SIGNAL IN
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS CAST CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY...BUT THIS
DATA AT LEAST SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY
EVENTUALLY DEVELOP OR EVOLVE FROM THE ONGOING STORMS NEAR ICT. AS
SUCH...AN ISOLD LARGE HAIL/WIND THREAT IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTN...WITH CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUING TO BE MONITORED.

..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 04/07/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 37219764 38029784 38629739 38769404 38199371 37649382
37359430 37219764

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KBOI [071834]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOI 071834
LSRBOI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1234 PM MDT SUN APR 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1215 PM NON-TSTM WND GST CALDWELL 43.66N 116.67W
04/07/2013 M45.00 MPH CANYON ID AWOS

LIGHTNING DISTANT NE. WIND WEST 35G45 MPH.

1157 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 11 NW WALLS LAKE RESERV 42.97N 119.25W
04/07/2013 M46.00 MPH HARNEY OR MESONET

FROM THE WSW 29G46 MPH.

1150 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BURNS 43.59N 119.06W
04/07/2013 M44.00 MPH HARNEY OR ASOS

FROM THE SW AT 1050 AM PDT. FASTEST 2 MINUTE WIND 35 MPH
AT 959 AM PDT.


&&

$$

VMILLS

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 071732
SWODY2
SPC AC 071730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SUN APR 07 2013

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/MIDDLE MO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY INTO
MONDAY...HIGHLIGHTED BY AN AMPLIFYING/SOUTHEASTWARD-DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH A
NORTHEASTWARD-EJECTING POLAR JET/SPEED MAX TOWARD THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. CORRESPONDING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN CO...WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
INTO WESTERN OK/NORTHWEST TX...AND A SLOW MOVING AND/OR
SOUTHWARD-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS/MIDWEST.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS WILL REACH THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
TRENDS MORE MERIDIONAL WITH THE EXIT REGION OF A MODERATELY STRONG
POLAR JET APPROACHING THE REGION. PERSISTENT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO WILL AID THE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRANSPORT OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...WITH LOWER 60S F SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ACROSS NORTHWEST TX/WESTERN OK/SOUTHWEST KS TO THE EAST OF
A DRYLINE...WITH A VERY QUICK LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SURGE /BUT
MORE MODEST/ LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST
KS AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN CO.

THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO WILL BE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED/SCATTERED
STORMS TO DEVELOP/INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS THROUGH
MID-LATE AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. FARTHER SOUTHEAST...THE
STRENGTH OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER INCLUDING SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT
/A DEGREE OR TWO FROM TODAY/ PUTS INTO THE QUESTION THE
LIKELIHOOD/EXTENT OF DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS WESTERN OK/NORTHWEST TX. THAT SAID...AT
LEAST A FEW/RELATIVELY ISOLATED TSTMS ARE PLAUSIBLE LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WHERE STORMS DO DEVELOP/MATURE ESPECIALLY
MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
INCREASINGLY ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS WOULD HIGHLY FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES AS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

LATER IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND
CORRESPONDING WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO MORE NUMEROUS TSTMS
ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY/MIDWEST ALONG/NORTH OF THE ROUGHLY
WSW-ENE FRONTAL ZONE. THE STRONGEST TSTMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF
SOME HAIL. MEANWHILE...FARTHER SOUTH...ANY DRYLINE/WARM SECTOR
ACTIVITY SHOULD OTHERWISE NOCTURNALLY DIMINISH AS INHIBITION/CAPPING
BECOMES REESTABLISHED MONDAY EVENING.

..GUYER.. 04/07/2013

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KLOX [071720]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KLOX 071720
LSRLOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
1020 AM PDT SUN APR 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 PM HIGH SUST WINDS 2 NE REFUGIO STATE BEAC 34.49N 120.05W
04/06/2013 M43.00 MPH SANTA BARBARA CA MESONET

1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND MEASURED BY THE LOS FLORES CANYON
MESONET SENSOR AT AN ELEVATION OF 616 FEET.


&&

$$

SUKUP

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KBOI [071637]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOI 071637
LSRBOI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1037 AM MDT SUN APR 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1013 AM SNOW BRUNDAGE SKI AREA 45.00N 116.16W
04/07/2013 E6.5 INCH ADAMS ID MESONET

SNOW SINCE MIDNIGHT.

1032 AM SNOW MCCALL 44.91N 116.11W
04/07/2013 E1.3 INCH VALLEY ID UNKNOWN

SNOWSTAKE 5030 FT MSL SNOW SINCE 2 AM. LIGHTNING STRIKE
20 SW MCCALL AT 1036 AM.


&&

$$

VMILLS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 071631
SWODY1
SPC AC 071629

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT SUN APR 07 2013

VALID 071630Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
FOR NW OK...MUCH OF KS...AND WRN/CENTRAL MO...

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH AN ASSOCIATED 100 KT JET
STREAK WILL DIG SEWD TO CA/NV THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE GRADUAL
DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES OCCUR OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SE
STATES. IN BETWEEN...A SERIES OF LOW-AMPLITUDE SPEED MAXIMA WILL
PROGRESS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THE LARGELY WLY FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LEE
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...AS WELL AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT NWD ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS.

...NW OK/KS TO CENTRAL MO THROUGH TONIGHT...
12Z SOUNDINGS AND RECENT SURFACE ANALYSES CONFIRM ONGOING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN INTO TX/OK/KS FROM THE WRN GULF BASIN...THOUGH
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS MAY BE A COUPLE
DEGREES TOO HIGH WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE...THE EML NOTED IN THE AMA/MAF SOUNDINGS WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD NW TX AND WRN OK...LIKELY PROVIDING A SUFFICIENT CAP TO
LIMIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION PROSPECTS ALONG THE WRN OK/NW TX DRYLINE
AND NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE. THE N EDGE OF THE WARMER EML
RESIDES BETWEEN AMA AND DDC...AND EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THAT THE
MORE PROBABLE AREA FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL BE NEAR AND N OF THE KS/OK BORDER.

MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ACCOUNTING FOR AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE
LOW-MID 70S WITH SOME CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 58-60
F...SUPPORT MLCAPE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG WITH ONLY SMALL CIN ACROSS
NW OK AND ADJACENT AREAS OF KS. ADDITIONALLY... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF AN EMBEDDED SPEED MAX ALOFT OVER NRN NM AS
OF MID MORNING...WHICH SHOULD REACH THE NW OK/SW KS BORDER REGION BY
THIS EVENING. THUS...THE EXPECTATION FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR OR N OF THE OK/KS BORDER APPEARS
REASONABLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. STORMS THAT FORM IN THIS AREA WILL
LIKELY BECOME SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 50 KT...AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS. A TORNADO OR TWO WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH ANY SUPERCELLS ON THE N SIDE OF THE
RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES THIS
EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A STRENGTHENING LLJ.

OTHERWISE...A NWD INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL
WAA REGIME SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL/NE KS
INTO MO...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 04/07/2013

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KBOI [071623]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOI 071623
LSRBOI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
1023 AM MDT SUN APR 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1020 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 NNW GLENDALE 44.89N 116.44W
04/07/2013 M1.20 INCH ADAMS ID TRAINED SPOTTER

OVERNIGHT RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORM IN THE LAST FEW MINUTES
AS WELL.


&&

$$

VMILLS

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KLOX [071611]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KLOX 071611
LSRLOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
910 AM PDT SUN APR 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0755 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 NE PYRAMID LAKE 34.74N 118.72W
04/06/2013 M69.00 MPH LOS ANGELES CA ASOS

MEASURED BY THE SANDBERG ASOS AT AN ELEVATION OF 4520
FEET. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 54 MPH WAS ALSO MEASURED AT 936
PM PDT.

0757 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 SSW CASTAIC LAKE 34.57N 118.74W
04/07/2013 M97.00 MPH LOS ANGELES CA MESONET

MEASURED BY THE WHITAKER PEAK RAWS SITE AT AN ELEVATION
OF 4117 FEET. SEVERAL HOURS OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF ABOUT
45 TO 60 MPH.


&&

$$

SUKUP

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KMQT [071449]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KMQT 071449
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1049 AM EDT SUN APR 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW 6 E CHAMPION 46.50N 87.85W
04/07/2013 M2.0 INCH MARQUETTE MI CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.

0700 AM SNOW LAURIUM 47.24N 88.44W
04/07/2013 M8.5 INCH HOUGHTON MI PUBLIC

APPROXIMATELY 24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.

0700 AM SNOW 5 ESE CHASSELL 47.01N 88.43W
04/07/2013 M4.0 INCH HOUGHTON MI CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.

0700 AM SNOW NW NEWBERRY 46.36N 85.52W
04/07/2013 M3.5 INCH LUCE MI CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.

0700 AM SNOW 2 NNW SNYDER LAKE 46.51N 85.96W
04/07/2013 M2.0 INCH ALGER MI CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.

0700 AM SNOW 2 E SIDNAW 46.51N 88.67W
04/07/2013 M3.8 INCH BARAGA MI CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.

0800 AM SNOW 4 NE CALUMET 47.29N 88.38W
04/07/2013 M6.8 INCH KEWEENAW MI CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL. 3.0 INCHES MEASURED IN THE LAST
12 HOURS.

0800 AM SNOW 4 NE NEGAUNEE 46.53N 87.55W
04/07/2013 M2.0 INCH MARQUETTE MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.

0800 AM SNOW 2 SW TWIN LAKES 46.88N 88.86W
04/07/2013 M4.0 INCH HOUGHTON MI CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.

0800 AM SNOW 1 ESE HOUGHTON 47.11N 88.54W
04/07/2013 M5.0 INCH HOUGHTON MI COCORAHS

24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.

1030 AM SNOW NW HANCOCK 47.13N 88.60W
04/07/2013 M3.0 INCH HOUGHTON MI PUBLIC

12 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.


&&

$$

KCOOLEY

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KMQT [071448]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 071448
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1048 AM EDT SUN APR 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1030 AM SNOW NW HANCOCK 47.13N 88.60W
04/07/2013 M3.0 INCH HOUGHTON MI PUBLIC

12 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.


&&

$$

KCOOLEY

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KMQT [071424]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 071424
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1024 AM EDT SUN APR 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW 1 ESE HOUGHTON 47.11N 88.54W
04/07/2013 M5.0 INCH HOUGHTON MI COCORAHS

24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.


&&

$$

KCOOLEY

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KDLH [071409]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KDLH 071409
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
909 AM CDT SUN APR 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0423 PM SNOW 5 N TOFTE 47.63N 90.88W
04/06/2013 M4.7 INCH COOK MN TRAINED SPOTTER

DAY TOTAL...STILL SNOWING LIGHT...

0537 PM SNOW FLOODWOOD 46.93N 92.92W
04/06/2013 M3.0 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0547 PM SNOW HOYT LAKES 47.51N 92.15W
04/06/2013 M5.0 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0614 PM SNOW LUTSEN 47.64N 90.71W
04/06/2013 M5.0 INCH COOK MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0645 PM SNOW BEAVER BAY 47.26N 91.30W
04/06/2013 M5.0 INCH LAKE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0655 PM SNOW LARSMONT 46.98N 91.75W
04/06/2013 M8.0 INCH LAKE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0705 PM SNOW 5 N VIRGINIA 47.59N 92.51W
04/06/2013 M8.5 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0708 PM SNOW TWO HARBORS 47.03N 91.68W
04/06/2013 M8.0 INCH LAKE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0714 PM SNOW 6 W TWO HARBORS 47.03N 91.80W
04/06/2013 M10.7 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0813 PM SNOW BABBITT 47.65N 91.94W
04/06/2013 M9.0 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0930 PM SNOW 5 NW TWO HARBORS 47.08N 91.75W
04/06/2013 M9.0 INCH LAKE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0932 PM SNOW TWO HARBORS 47.03N 91.68W
04/06/2013 M10.0 INCH LAKE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0530 AM SNOW ALBORN 46.97N 92.58W
04/07/2013 E4.0 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0605 AM SNOW EMBARRASS 47.66N 92.20W
04/07/2013 E7.0 INCH ST. LOUIS MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0611 AM SNOW ELY 47.91N 91.85W
04/07/2013 M4.5 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

FELL YESTERDAY

0905 AM SNOW SILVER BAY 47.29N 91.28W
04/07/2013 E4.5 INCH LAKE MN CO-OP OBSERVER

STORM TOTAL 6.5 INCHES


&&

$$

MSTEWART

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KMFR [071403]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 071403
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
703 AM PDT SUN APR 7 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN BROOKINGS 42.06N 124.29W
04/07/2013 M0.90 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY RAIN DURATION 24 HOURS

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KMQT [071345]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 071345
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
945 AM EDT SUN APR 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW 2 SW TWIN LAKES 46.88N 88.86W
04/07/2013 M4.0 INCH HOUGHTON MI CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.

0700 AM SNOW LAURIUM 47.24N 88.44W
04/07/2013 M8.5 INCH HOUGHTON MI PUBLIC

APPROXIMATELY 24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.


&&

$$

KCOOLEY

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KGRR [071332]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 071332
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
932 AM EDT SUN APR 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 W SOUTH HAVEN 42.40N 86.29W
04/07/2013 M41.00 MPH LMZ844 MI OTHER FEDERAL

RECORDED AT THE SOUTH HAVEN GLERL SITE

0136 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 WSW BATTLE CREEK 42.31N 85.25W
04/07/2013 E38.00 MPH CALHOUN MI ASOS

0140 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SW ST. JOSEPH 42.09N 86.51W
04/07/2013 M43.00 MPH LMZ043 MI OTHER FEDERAL

RECORDED AT THE ST. JOSEPH GLOS SITE

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 S MUSKEGON 43.17N 86.24W
04/07/2013 M41.00 MPH MUSKEGON MI ASOS

0210 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 SSE KALAMAZOO 42.24N 85.56W
04/07/2013 M49.00 MPH KALAMAZOO MI ASOS

0220 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 WNW JACKSON 42.26N 84.46W
04/07/2013 M39.00 MPH JACKSON MI ASOS

0220 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 WNW MANISTEE 44.25N 86.35W
04/07/2013 M37.00 MPH MANISTEE MI OTHER FEDERAL

RECORDED AT THE MANISTEE GLOS SITE

0230 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 S HOLLAND 42.74N 86.10W
04/07/2013 M47.00 MPH ALLEGAN MI ASOS

0236 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SSE LUDINGTON 43.95N 86.44W
04/07/2013 M35.00 MPH MASON MI OTHER FEDERAL

RECORDED AT LUDINGTON NOS SITE

0250 AM NON-TSTM WND GST GERALD R FORD ARPT 42.89N 85.53W
04/07/2013 M39.00 MPH KENT MI ASOS

0250 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 NW LANSING 42.78N 84.59W
04/07/2013 M39.00 MPH CLINTON MI ASOS

0530 AM NON-TSTM WND GST S BIG SABLE POINT 44.06N 86.51W
04/07/2013 M37.00 MPH MASON MI OTHER FEDERAL

RECORDED AT THE BIG SABLE POINT GLOS SITE


&&

$$

JMAPLES

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 071250
SWODY1
SPC AC 071248

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 AM CDT SUN APR 07 2013

VALID 071300Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS AND NRN
OK INTO CNTRL MO THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

...SYNOPSIS...

AN INITIALLY QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN WILL UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION DURING
THE D1 PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO THE EQUATORWARD PROGRESSION OF MID AND
UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS FROM THE NERN PACIFIC INTO THE LOWER CO
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A SUBSTANTIAL
TROUGH FROM THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO GREAT BASIN WHERE
12-HR HEIGHT FALLS AT 500 MB WILL EXCEED 100-150 M. FARTHER E...A
SERIES OF WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE CNTRL
CONUS...AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS LATER
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL DEVELOP NEWD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WHILE A TRAILING COLD
FRONT SETTLES SEWD THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE WRN EXTENSION
OF THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OR RETREAT SLOWLY NWD
OVER THE MIDWEST INTO NRN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. FARTHER S...A WEAK
FRONT/MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY CURRENTLY FROM CNTRL MO TO ALONG THE
KS-OK BORDER WILL SLOWLY MOVE NWD IN RESPONSE TO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
CYCLOGENESIS. A DRYLINE WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY FROM WRN KS SWD
THROUGH A DEEPENING THERMAL LOW OVER NWRN TX INTO W-CNTRL TX.

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

A BIFURCATED LLJ PRESENT E OF THE ROCKIES WILL TEMPORARILY WEAKEN
THIS MORNING BEFORE CONSOLIDATING ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL
HASTEN THE NWD FLUX OF A MODIFIED CP AIR MASS THROUGH THE
REGION...AND BENEATH A PRONOUNCED EML AS SAMPLED BY 12Z REGIONAL
SOUNDINGS. THE CO-LOCATION OF THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO YIELD A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
WARM SECTOR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING
1000-2000 J/KG.

THE EARLY PASSAGE OF A LEAD VORTICITY MAXIMUM THROUGH KS THIS
MORNING CASTS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON SPECIFIC TIMING OF STORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT...WV IMAGERY SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF WEAKER UPSTREAM IMPULSES
WHICH WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL HEATING
CYCLE. FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE
WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EXISTING SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO
FOSTER WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...BY MID
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.

THE STRENGTHENING LLJ SHOULD SUPPORT UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS INTO
MULTIPLE CLUSTERS WITH A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT
SPREADING EWD INTO WRN AND CNTRL PARTS OF MO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. FARTHER S...A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL EXIST ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WRN OK AND NWRN TX THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN A PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER CAP AND
WEAKER FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH SWD EXTENT...UNCERTAINTY IN STORM
INITIATION AND SUSTENANCE REMAINS QUITE HIGH.

..MEAD/ROGERS.. 04/07/2013

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KBIS [071237]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 071237
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
737 AM CDT SUN APR 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0736 AM SNOW WILLISTON 48.15N 103.63W
04/07/2013 M1.0 INCH WILLIAMS ND FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

6 HOUR REPORT FROM SNOW PAID OBSERVER.


&&

$$

KROLAK

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KMQT [071220]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 071220
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
820 AM EDT SUN APR 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW NW NEWBERRY 46.36N 85.52W
04/07/2013 M3.5 INCH LUCE MI CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.

0700 AM SNOW 2 NNW SNYDER LAKE 46.51N 85.96W
04/07/2013 M2.0 INCH ALGER MI CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.

0700 AM SNOW 2 E SIDNAW 46.51N 88.67W
04/07/2013 M3.8 INCH BARAGA MI CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.

0800 AM SNOW 4 NE CALUMET 47.29N 88.38W
04/07/2013 M6.8 INCH KEWEENAW MI CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL. 3.0 INCHES MEASURED IN THE LAST
12 HOURS.

0800 AM SNOW 4 NE NEGAUNEE 46.53N 87.55W
04/07/2013 M2.0 INCH MARQUETTE MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.


&&

$$

KCOOLEY

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KMQT [071131]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 071131
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
731 AM EDT SUN APR 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW 5 ESE CHASSELL 47.01N 88.43W
04/07/2013 M4.0 INCH HOUGHTON MI CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.


&&

$$

KCOOLEY

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KMQT [071121]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 071121
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
721 AM EDT SUN APR 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW 6 E CHAMPION 46.50N 87.85W
04/07/2013 M2.0 INCH MARQUETTE MI CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.


&&

$$

KCOOLEY

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KPQR [071113]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KPQR 071113
LSRPQR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
413 AM PDT SUN APR 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1241 AM NON-TSTM WND GST LINCOLN CITY 44.97N 124.01W
04/07/2013 M61.00 MPH LINCOLN OR AMATEUR RADIO

1247 AM NON-TSTM WND GST CAPE FOULWEATHER 44.78N 124.07W
04/07/2013 M75.00 MPH LINCOLN OR AMATEUR RADIO

0255 AM NON-TSTM WND GST NEWPORT 44.63N 124.05W
04/07/2013 M60.00 MPH LINCOLN OR DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

YAQUINA BRIDGE ODOT INSTRUMENTATION

0312 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 ENE LAUREL MOUNTAIN 44.92N 123.47W
04/07/2013 M58.00 MPH POLK OR PARK/FOREST SRVC

ROCKHOUSE RAWS


&&

$$

SWEAGLE

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KDLH [071112]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 071112
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
611 AM CDT SUN APR 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0611 AM SNOW ELY 47.91N 91.85W
04/07/2013 M4.5 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

FELL YESTERDAY


&&

$$

MELDE

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KHNX [070845]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 070845
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
144 AM PDT SUN APR 7 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0132 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 NW MOJAVE 35.11N 118.24W
04/07/2013 M63 MPH KERN CA MESONET

REPORTED AT APRSWXNET STATION AU563

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 070835
SWOD48
SPC AC 070834

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 AM CDT SUN APR 07 2013

VALID 101200Z - 151200Z

...DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO D5-6 FROM THE
MID/LOWER-MS VALLEY EWD TOWARDS THE S ATLANTIC COAST.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ATTM TO HIGHLIGHT SEVERE
PROBABILITIES AOA 30 PERCENT BEYOND D4. DISCREPANCIES NOTED IN D2-3
OVER MODELS HANDLING OF THE WRN CONUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE IMPULSES BECOME INCREASINGLY PROBLEMATIC DURING
THE REST OF THE WEEK.

WITH PRECEDING DAYS FEATURING ELEVATED MIXED LAYERS THAT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ALONG WITH SUBSEQUENT
ADVECTION OF A WRN GULF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME...SETUP SHOULD
YIELD A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
PUSH EWD AND EVENTUALLY EXIT THE ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG
LOW/MID-LEVEL S/SWLYS DOWNSTREAM OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE IMPULSE INVOF
CNTRL PLAINS SHOULD YIELD A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS
POTENTIALLY OCCURRING ON D4. BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME...SUBSTANTIAL
VARIATION AND RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCY OCCURS WITH THE
HANDLING/TIMING OF THIS IMPULSE AND ESPECIALLY WITH AN UPSTREAM VORT
MAX IN THE BASE OF THE EJECTING TROUGH.

..GRAMS.. 04/07/2013

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KHNX [070834]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 070834
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
133 AM PDT SUN APR 7 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 N MOJAVE 35.10N 118.19W
04/07/2013 M61 MPH KERN CA MESONET

REPORTED AT MESOWEST STATION UP479

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KLOT [070800]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 070800
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
300 AM CDT SUN APR 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1210 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 3 NNW BURNS HARBOR 41.65N 87.15W
04/07/2013 M44 MPH PORTER IN C-MAN STATION


&&

$$

IZZI

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 070731
SWODY3
SPC AC 070729

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT SUN APR 07 2013

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY TO THE
SRN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST SHOULD EVOLVE INTO
TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVE IMPULSES...ONE MOVING NEWD TOWARDS THE
NRN/CNTRL PLAINS AND THE OTHER REMAINING IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
OVER NWRN MEXICO. MID-LEVEL SWLYS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
WARM/MOIST SECTOR IN RESPONSE TO THE LEAD IMPULSE. AT THE
SURFACE...CYCLONE IN THE LEE OF THE SRN ROCKIES SHOULD DEVELOP NEWD
AND REACH THE LOWER MO VALLEY BY TUE NIGHT. THE SRN PLAINS DRYLINE
WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD REACH
CNTRL TX BY EARLY WED.

...LOWER MO VALLEY TO THE SRN PLAINS...
A BROAD CORRIDOR OF ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH ALL HAZARD TYPES
IS ANTICIPATED TUE AFTERNOON INTO WED MORNING. AN UPGRADE TO
MODERATE RISK WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONSIDERED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN GIVEN RELATIVELY LARGE
SPREAD IN GUIDANCE WITH THE HANDLING OF THE LEAD SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
EJECTING FROM THE WRN CONUS TROUGH. NCEP GUIDANCE REMAINS FASTER
THAN THE ECMWF/UKMET WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE IMPULSE WHICH
AFFECTS POSITIONING OF THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT...AND MORE BULLISH
WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF KINEMATICS OVER THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR. THIS
BREEDS SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY OVER WHERE TO PLACE HIGHER SEVERE
PROBABILITIES OR EVEN WHETHER THEY ARE NEEDED BEYOND AN ENHANCED
SLIGHT RISK.

REGARDLESS OF THE PATTERN DIFFERENCES...GIVEN STRENGTHENING RETURN
FLOW IN THE WRN GULF...A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE S-CNTRL CONUS. WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASING THROUGH THE
PERIOD...SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED CLUSTERS SHOULD COMMENCE TUE
AFTERNOON IN PARTS OF KS AND DEVELOP S/EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND
TOWARDS THE MID-MS VALLEY DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. LARGE HAIL
/SOME SIGNIFICANT/ AND TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
WHILE THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AS LOWER-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS AND
CONVECTIVE MODE BECOMES MORE CLUSTER/LINEAR.

..GRAMS.. 04/07/2013

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KHNX [070654]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 070654
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
1153 PM PDT SAT APR 6 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1055 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NE MOJAVE 35.07N 118.15W
04/06/2013 M63 MPH KERN CA AWOS

REPORTED AT AWOS STATION MHV

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KLOT [070558]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 070558
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1258 AM CDT SUN APR 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1215 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 3 NNE TOWN OF PINES 41.73N 86.93W
04/07/2013 M56.00 MPH LMZ745 IN C-MAN STATION

1220 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 3 NNE TOWN OF PINES 41.73N 86.93W
04/07/2013 M53.00 MPH LMZ745 IN C-MAN STATION


&&

$$

IZZI

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 070555
SWODY2
SPC AC 070554

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT SUN APR 07 2013

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS
INTO WRN OK...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD GRADUALLY PROGRESS EWD ACROSS
THE WRN CONUS WITH A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX BEGINNING TO EJECT
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BY EARLY TUE. AT THE
SURFACE...PRIMARY CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE LEE
OF THE SRN ROCKIES. A SHARP DRYLINE WILL MIX INTO SWRN KS...FAR WRN
OK AND THE TX BIG COUNTRY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SWD FROM THE NRN
PLAINS...REACHING THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO MID-MO VALLEY BY TUE
MORNING.

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION OUTSIDE OF THE CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS...AS MODEL SPREAD CONTINUES TO BE ABOVE-AVERAGE WITH THE
HANDLING OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND ITS SUBSEQUENT EFFECTS ON
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUMES AND SOURCES OF LIFT. THE ECMWF REMAINS
SUBSTANTIALLY SLOWER THAN NCEP GUIDANCE WITH THE EJECTION OF THE
INTENSE MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS
TROUGH. CONSISTENCY IS SOMEWHAT BETTER WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
LEAD SHORTWAVE IMPULSE /LIKELY INFLUENCED BY CONVECTION ON D1/
REACHING THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST MIDDAY. THIS SHOULD YIELD
PREDOMINATELY LOW-LEVEL SWLYS WITH ADVECTION OF THE MEXICAN GULF
COAST MOISTURE PLUME NEWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS. MORE SUBSTANTIAL
LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL PROBABLY NOT
OCCUR UNTIL THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. AS SUCH...DIURNALLY-
DRIVEN TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE ENTIRELY RELEGATED NW OF A STOUT EML
PREVAILING ACROSS MOST OF KS SWD...CONSIDERING THE RELATIVELY
SHALLOW EXTENT OF THE PBL OVER MUCH OF THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR. TSTM
INITIATION APPEARS MOST PROBABLE IN NERN CO...THEN DEVELOPING E/SEWD
INTO NWRN KS. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INCREASINGLY ELONGATED
HODOGRAPHS WOULD HIGHLY FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL /POSSIBLY
SIGNIFICANT INTO KS/ AND A FEW TORNADOES AS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS AND BOTH
WAA/FRONTOGENESIS INCREASE...PROSPECTS FOR MORE NUMEROUS TSTMS
SHOULD BE ENHANCED AND MOST MODELS DEPICT INCREASING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE MO VALLEY. STILL...THE NAM INDICATES
VERY STRONG CAPPING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR AND
THIS BREEDS SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY INTO THE SRN EXTENT OF SEVERE
POTENTIAL. THUS...MOST OF THE HIGHLIGHTED SLIGHT RISK IS CONDITIONAL
ON TSTMS ACTUALLY BEING ABLE TO FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE IN SWRN
KS/WRN OK DURING THE EARLY EVENING...WITH A CLUSTER OR TWO PERHAPS
EMANATING NEWD WITHIN A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE TYPE
ENVIRONMENT.

..GRAMS.. 04/07/2013

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KIWX [070552]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 070552
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
152 AM EDT SUN APR 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0115 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 2 WNW POTTAWATTOMIE PAR 41.74N 86.91W
04/07/2013 M56 MPH LMZ046 IN C-MAN STATION

A 49 KNOT WIND GUST WAS RECORDED BY THE GLERL MARINE
SITE AT MICHIGAN CITY AS A LINE OF SHOWERS CAME ONSHORE.


&&

$$

FISHER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 070543
SWODY1
SPC AC 070540

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 AM CDT SUN APR 07 2013

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS AND WRN MO...

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. TODAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A LOW
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOW-ROLLING PLAINS OF NW TX WITH A
DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD ACROSS WCNTRL TX. TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SFC
LOW...WINDS WILL BE BACKED TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A CORRIDOR OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING NWD FROM NORTH TX ACROSS OK INTO SRN
KS. SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 60S F ACROSS WCNTRL OK WITH
NEAR 60 F POSSIBLE IN SRN KS. THE AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO BECOME
UNCAPPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS KS WHERE SOME OF THE MODELS INITIATE
CONVECTION AROUND 21Z. THIS CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP EWD
ACROSS NCNTRL KS AND SWD INTO NW OK BY EARLY EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z/MON FROM WICHITA KS WWD TO DODGE CITY KS
AND SWD TO GAGE OK GENERALLY SHOW ABOUT 2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. THIS
COINCIDES WITH 50 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 8.5 C/KM. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE IDEAL FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT AND LARGE HAIL GENERATION...WITH GREATER THAN 2 INCH
DIAMETER HAIL POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...A 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS CNTRL OK EXTENDING NWD INTO SRN KS
DURING THE EARLY EVENING SUGGESTING ANY SUPERCELL THAT CAN PERSIST
AND MOVE EWD INTO THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALSO BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO
DEVELOP.

THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ISOLATED DUE TO THE LOW-AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND LACK OF A MID-LEVEL JET. ALSO...THE CAPPING INVERSION
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD IMPEDE DEVELOPMENT WITH SWD EXTENT. FOR THIS
REASON...THE SEVERE THREAT IS MUCH MORE CONDITIONAL SOUTH OF I-40.

...ERN KS/WRN-CNTRL MO...
WLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL STATES TODAY AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. AT THE SFC...THE
WARM SECTOR SHOULD BE IN PLACE FROM THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS
EXTENDING EWD INTO AR AND MO WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S F. MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
ACROSS NE OK...ERN KS AND WCNTRL MO LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD TAKE PLACE. CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS A LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES INTO ERN
KS/WRN MO THIS EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z/MON AT KANSAS CITY KS AND SPRINGFIELD MO
GENERALLY SHOW MUCAPE VALUES PEAKING AT 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. IN
ADDITION...0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD BE IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE
SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. MODE COULD BE AN ISSUE WITH SOME OF THE WEAKER CELLS
REMAINING MULTICELLULAR. CELLS THAT CAN REMAIN DISCRETE WITH ACCESS
TO THE GREATER INSTABILITY COULD BECOME SUPERCELLS AND CONTAIN A
LARGE HAIL THREAT. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS
AND SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS.

..BROYLES/GARNER.. 04/07/2013

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