MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0391

ACUS11 KWNS 072042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072042
KSZ000-072245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0391
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 PM CDT SUN APR 07 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 072042Z - 072245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...PROBABILITIES FOR STORM INITIATION AND CONTINGENT STORM
COVERAGE ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
--INITIALLY OVER W-CNTRL KS. A CONDITIONAL HAIL/WIND...AND PERHAPS
A TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS A RESULT. THE POSSIBILITY OF A
WATCH BEING ISSUED IS HIGHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW AN INCREASINGLY AGITATED
CU FIELD OVER NWRN KS WHERE WEAK INSTABILITY HAS RESULTED IN WEAK
TSTMS NEAR THE NWRN KS/SWRN NE BORDER. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
SLOW/GRADUAL NWD PROGRESSION OF A RESERVOIR OF MID-UPPER 50S
DEWPOINTS INTO S-CNTRL KS FROM N-CNTRL OK. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...THIS MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL KS BY EARLY
EVENING. THIS WILL PROBABLY YIELD A GREATER PROPENSITY FOR
BOUNDARY-LAYER BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE DRIER WELL-MIXED
AIRMASS OVER NWRN KS TENDS TO BECOME JUXTAPOSED WITH THE MORE
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS CURRENTLY FARTHER S OVER S-CNTRL KS.

STORM INITIATION/COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY INCREASE AS THE DRYLINE
CONTINUES TO SHARPEN OVER WRN KS LENDING AN UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ON THE NWRN EDGE OF THE NWD ADVANCING MOISTURE. THIS
WILL COINCIDE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO
THE TX/OK PANHANDLES THIS EVENING. GIVEN A SUPERCELL WIND PROFILE
AND MODERATE BUOYANCY /MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG/...A CONDITIONAL LARGE
HAIL/WIND THREAT EXISTS. IF A NEAR SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL WERE TO
DEVELOP PRIOR TO NOCTURNAL DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...A
SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY COULD EXIST FOR A TORNADO.

..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 04/07/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 37530006 38940016 39329920 39149832 38019785 37499826
37279898 37530006

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