NWUS54 KMOB 130337
LSRMOB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1037 PM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1250 PM HAIL PISGAH 31.11N 88.49W
05/12/2012 E0.88 INCH GREENE MS PUBLIC
0115 PM TSTM WND DMG S LEAKESVILLE 31.15N 88.56W
05/12/2012 GREENE MS EMERGENCY MNGR
STRONG WINDS PUSHED TREE ON BUILDING CAUSING FIRE.
0323 PM HAIL LEROY 31.50N 87.98W
05/12/2012 E0.75 INCH WASHINGTON AL COCORAHS
PENNY SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN LEROY BETWEEN 315 AND 330 PM
CDT.
0743 PM TORNADO JOHNSONS BEACH 30.31N 87.41W
05/12/2012 ESCAMBIA FL EMERGENCY MNGR
THE ESCAMBIA COUNTY EMA OFFICE REPORTS A WATER SPOUT THAT
HAD MOVED INLAND OVER JOHNSONS BEACH.
0811 PM TORNADO 10 WSW PENSACOLA 30.37N 87.37W
05/12/2012 ESCAMBIA FL LAW ENFORCEMENT
UNCONFIRMED TORNADO DAMAGE REPORTED 3252 FENCELINE
RD.PENSACOLA. DAMAGE TO HOME...FENCE...AND BOAT RAMP.
0811 PM TORNADO 10 WSW PENSACOLA 30.37N 87.37W
05/12/2012 ESCAMBIA FL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
FIRE DEPT. REPORTS THAT ALL DAMAGE AT 3252 FENCELINE RD.
WAS MINOR...TREES DOWN...FENCE DAMAGE...MAILBOX
LEANING...DEBRIS IN FRONT YARD.
&&
$$
CL
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Saturday, May 12, 2012
KJAN [121852]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KJAN 121852
LSRJAN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
152 PM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1255 PM TSTM WND DMG LAUREL 31.69N 89.14W
05/12/2012 JONES MS EMERGENCY MNGR
POWER LINES DOWN ON INDIAN SPRINGS RD AND TREES DOWN ON
POWER LINES IN THE SHADY GROVE AREA.
&&
$$
AWEBER
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LSRJAN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
152 PM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1255 PM TSTM WND DMG LAUREL 31.69N 89.14W
05/12/2012 JONES MS EMERGENCY MNGR
POWER LINES DOWN ON INDIAN SPRINGS RD AND TREES DOWN ON
POWER LINES IN THE SHADY GROVE AREA.
&&
$$
AWEBER
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KMOB [121834]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KMOB 121834
LSRMOB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
133 PM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1250 PM HAIL PISGAH 31.11N 88.49W
05/12/2012 E0.88 INCH GREENE MS PUBLIC
&&
$$
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LSRMOB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
133 PM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1250 PM HAIL PISGAH 31.11N 88.49W
05/12/2012 E0.88 INCH GREENE MS PUBLIC
&&
$$
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KEWX [121751]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KEWX 121751
LSREWX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1251 PM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0735 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 SSW SHAVANO PARK 29.56N 98.57W
05/11/2012 BEXAR TX INSURANCE CO.
SEVERAL LARGE TREES...SIX INCH DIAMETER OR
GREATER...KNOCKED DOWN ALONG VANCE JACKSON RD BETWEEN
DEZAVALA RD AND HUEBNER RD
&&
EVENT NUMBER EWX1200345
$$
BF
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LSREWX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1251 PM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0735 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 SSW SHAVANO PARK 29.56N 98.57W
05/11/2012 BEXAR TX INSURANCE CO.
SEVERAL LARGE TREES...SIX INCH DIAMETER OR
GREATER...KNOCKED DOWN ALONG VANCE JACKSON RD BETWEEN
DEZAVALA RD AND HUEBNER RD
&&
EVENT NUMBER EWX1200345
$$
BF
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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS02 KWNS 121732
SWODY2
SPC AC 121730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NM/SOUTHWEST TX...
...CENTRAL/EASTERN NM AND FAR WEST TX...
AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES ON SUNDAY...INCREASING DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT/VERTICAL
SHEAR IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME WESTWARD TRANSITION/INCREASE OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR AN UPSWING IN TSTMS WITH SOME
POTENTIALLY STRONG/SEVERE. TSTMS SHOULD ESPECIALLY INCREASE
ALONG/EAST OF THE INTERIOR NM MOUNTAINS/HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTHWEST TX. EVEN WITH
RELATIVELY MODEST BUOYANCY...30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL...WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE AS WELL. MULTIPLE/AT LEAST LOOSELY
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS SHOULD EVOLVE AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD SUNDAY
EVENING/LATE NIGHT.
...DEEP SOUTH/TN VALLEY...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LIMITED IN SPECIFIC DETAILS AMID DEGREE OF
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES...BUT A CONTINUED GENERAL WEAKENING
TREND SEEMS LIKELY WITH AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MIGRATING UPPER TROUGH
TOWARD THE TN VALLEY. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...AND A RELATIVELY
MODEST COMBINATION OF VERTICAL SHEAR/EXPECTED DESTABILIZATION
ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT AWAY FROM COASTAL AREAS...ONLY LOW
SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE CURRENTLY WARRANTED FOR WHAT IS ANTICIPATED
TO BE MAINLY A MARGINAL SEVERE WIND/PERHAPS TORNADO THREAT.
..GUYER.. 05/12/2012
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SWODY2
SPC AC 121730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NM/SOUTHWEST TX...
...CENTRAL/EASTERN NM AND FAR WEST TX...
AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES ON SUNDAY...INCREASING DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT/VERTICAL
SHEAR IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME WESTWARD TRANSITION/INCREASE OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR AN UPSWING IN TSTMS WITH SOME
POTENTIALLY STRONG/SEVERE. TSTMS SHOULD ESPECIALLY INCREASE
ALONG/EAST OF THE INTERIOR NM MOUNTAINS/HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTHWEST TX. EVEN WITH
RELATIVELY MODEST BUOYANCY...30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL...WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE AS WELL. MULTIPLE/AT LEAST LOOSELY
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS SHOULD EVOLVE AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD SUNDAY
EVENING/LATE NIGHT.
...DEEP SOUTH/TN VALLEY...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LIMITED IN SPECIFIC DETAILS AMID DEGREE OF
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES...BUT A CONTINUED GENERAL WEAKENING
TREND SEEMS LIKELY WITH AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MIGRATING UPPER TROUGH
TOWARD THE TN VALLEY. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...AND A RELATIVELY
MODEST COMBINATION OF VERTICAL SHEAR/EXPECTED DESTABILIZATION
ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT AWAY FROM COASTAL AREAS...ONLY LOW
SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE CURRENTLY WARRANTED FOR WHAT IS ANTICIPATED
TO BE MAINLY A MARGINAL SEVERE WIND/PERHAPS TORNADO THREAT.
..GUYER.. 05/12/2012
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KLCH [121721]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary
NWUS54 KLCH 121721
LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1221 PM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0337 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 4 SE SABINE PASS 29.69N 93.84W
05/11/2012 M42.00 MPH JEFFERSON TX OFFICIAL NWS OBS
REPORT FROM NOS TIDE GAGE TXPT2 AT TEXAS POINT.
0745 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 54 SSE PECAN ISLAND 28.90N 92.16W
05/11/2012 E40.00 MPH GMZ472 XX PUBLIC
REPORT FROM PLATFORM IN VERMILION BLOCK 171.
0830 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 24 SSE INTRACOASTAL CIT 29.44N 92.06W
05/11/2012 E40.00 MPH GMZ455 LA PUBLIC
REPORT FROM PLATFORM IN SOUTH MARSH ISLAND BLOCK 217.
0835 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 13 SSE PECAN ISLAND 29.47N 92.37W
05/11/2012 M39.00 MPH GMZ452 LA AWOS
REPORT FROM FAA AWOS VNP IN VERMILION BLOCK 26.
0855 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 38 SW BURNS POINT 29.12N 91.88W
05/11/2012 M41.00 MPH GMZ455 LA AWOS
REPORT FROM FAA AWOS SCF IN SOUTH MARSH ISLAND BLOCK 268.
1045 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 28 S BURNS POINT 29.17N 91.53W
05/11/2012 M45.00 MPH GMZ455 LA PUBLIC
REPORT FROM PLATFORM IN EUGENE ISLAND BLOCK 63.
0341 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 7 SW JOHNSON BAYOU 29.69N 93.73W
05/12/2012 M41.00 MPH GMZ450 LA PUBLIC
REPORT FROM PLATFORM IN WEST CAMERON BLOCK 17.
0448 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 3 SW CAMERON 29.77N 93.34W
05/12/2012 M45.00 MPH CAMERON LA C-MAN STATION
NOS TIDE GAUGE AT CALCASIEU PASS RECORDED WIND GUST TO 39
KNOTS.
0745 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 35 SSE SEA RIM STATE PA 29.23N 93.79W
05/12/2012 E50.00 MPH GMZ470 LA PUBLIC
REPORT FROM PLATFORM IN HIGH ISLAND BLOCK 167.
0855 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 61 S RUTHERFORD BEACH 28.91N 93.31W
05/12/2012 M47.00 MPH GMZ472 XX AWOS
REPORT FROM FAA AWOS CRH LOCATED IN WEST CAMERON BLOCK
368.
0855 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 21 SW ROCKEFELLER WILDL 29.45N 92.99W
05/12/2012 M40.00 MPH GMZ452 LA AWOS
REPORT FROM FAA AWOS CMB IN EAST CAMERON BLOCK 47.
1039 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 64 S PECAN ISLAND 28.72N 92.33W
05/12/2012 E40.00 MPH GMZ472 XX PUBLIC
REPORT OF 40 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS FROM PLATFORM IN
VERMILION BLOCK 215.
1135 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 37 SSW BURNS POINT 29.12N 91.87W
05/12/2012 M51.00 MPH GMZ455 LA AWOS
REPORT FROM FAA AWOS SCF LOCATED IN SOUTH MARSH ISLAND
BLOCK 268.
&&
$$
MOGGED
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LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1221 PM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0337 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 4 SE SABINE PASS 29.69N 93.84W
05/11/2012 M42.00 MPH JEFFERSON TX OFFICIAL NWS OBS
REPORT FROM NOS TIDE GAGE TXPT2 AT TEXAS POINT.
0745 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 54 SSE PECAN ISLAND 28.90N 92.16W
05/11/2012 E40.00 MPH GMZ472 XX PUBLIC
REPORT FROM PLATFORM IN VERMILION BLOCK 171.
0830 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 24 SSE INTRACOASTAL CIT 29.44N 92.06W
05/11/2012 E40.00 MPH GMZ455 LA PUBLIC
REPORT FROM PLATFORM IN SOUTH MARSH ISLAND BLOCK 217.
0835 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 13 SSE PECAN ISLAND 29.47N 92.37W
05/11/2012 M39.00 MPH GMZ452 LA AWOS
REPORT FROM FAA AWOS VNP IN VERMILION BLOCK 26.
0855 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 38 SW BURNS POINT 29.12N 91.88W
05/11/2012 M41.00 MPH GMZ455 LA AWOS
REPORT FROM FAA AWOS SCF IN SOUTH MARSH ISLAND BLOCK 268.
1045 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 28 S BURNS POINT 29.17N 91.53W
05/11/2012 M45.00 MPH GMZ455 LA PUBLIC
REPORT FROM PLATFORM IN EUGENE ISLAND BLOCK 63.
0341 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 7 SW JOHNSON BAYOU 29.69N 93.73W
05/12/2012 M41.00 MPH GMZ450 LA PUBLIC
REPORT FROM PLATFORM IN WEST CAMERON BLOCK 17.
0448 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 3 SW CAMERON 29.77N 93.34W
05/12/2012 M45.00 MPH CAMERON LA C-MAN STATION
NOS TIDE GAUGE AT CALCASIEU PASS RECORDED WIND GUST TO 39
KNOTS.
0745 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 35 SSE SEA RIM STATE PA 29.23N 93.79W
05/12/2012 E50.00 MPH GMZ470 LA PUBLIC
REPORT FROM PLATFORM IN HIGH ISLAND BLOCK 167.
0855 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 61 S RUTHERFORD BEACH 28.91N 93.31W
05/12/2012 M47.00 MPH GMZ472 XX AWOS
REPORT FROM FAA AWOS CRH LOCATED IN WEST CAMERON BLOCK
368.
0855 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 21 SW ROCKEFELLER WILDL 29.45N 92.99W
05/12/2012 M40.00 MPH GMZ452 LA AWOS
REPORT FROM FAA AWOS CMB IN EAST CAMERON BLOCK 47.
1039 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 64 S PECAN ISLAND 28.72N 92.33W
05/12/2012 E40.00 MPH GMZ472 XX PUBLIC
REPORT OF 40 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS FROM PLATFORM IN
VERMILION BLOCK 215.
1135 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 37 SSW BURNS POINT 29.12N 91.87W
05/12/2012 M51.00 MPH GMZ455 LA AWOS
REPORT FROM FAA AWOS SCF LOCATED IN SOUTH MARSH ISLAND
BLOCK 268.
&&
$$
MOGGED
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KBOU [121646]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary
NWUS55 KBOU 121646
LSRBOU
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1046 AM MDT SAT MAY 12 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1040 AM SNOW 3 S ESTES PARK 40.33N 105.52W
05/12/2012 M1.5 INCH LARIMER CO TRAINED SPOTTER
1000 AM HEAVY SNOW N FAIRPLAY 39.23N 106.00W
05/12/2012 M6.0 INCH PARK CO TRAINED SPOTTER
1000 AM SNOW 2 SSE BRECKENRIDGE 39.47N 106.03W
05/12/2012 M2.2 INCH SUMMIT CO TRAINED SPOTTER
0845 AM SNOW 3 N BLACK HAWK 39.84N 105.49W
05/12/2012 M4.1 INCH GILPIN CO TRAINED SPOTTER
0828 PM SNOW 4 ENE NEDERLAND 39.99N 105.45W
05/11/2012 M1.0 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
JK
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LSRBOU
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1046 AM MDT SAT MAY 12 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1040 AM SNOW 3 S ESTES PARK 40.33N 105.52W
05/12/2012 M1.5 INCH LARIMER CO TRAINED SPOTTER
1000 AM HEAVY SNOW N FAIRPLAY 39.23N 106.00W
05/12/2012 M6.0 INCH PARK CO TRAINED SPOTTER
1000 AM SNOW 2 SSE BRECKENRIDGE 39.47N 106.03W
05/12/2012 M2.2 INCH SUMMIT CO TRAINED SPOTTER
0845 AM SNOW 3 N BLACK HAWK 39.84N 105.49W
05/12/2012 M4.1 INCH GILPIN CO TRAINED SPOTTER
0828 PM SNOW 4 ENE NEDERLAND 39.99N 105.45W
05/11/2012 M1.0 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
JK
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KLCH [121644]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KLCH 121644
LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1144 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1135 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 37 SSW BURNS POINT 29.12N 91.87W
05/12/2012 M51 MPH GMZ455 LA AWOS
REPORT FROM FAA AWOS SCF LOCATED IN SOUTH MARSH ISLAND
BLOCK 268.
&&
$$
MOGGED
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LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1144 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1135 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 37 SSW BURNS POINT 29.12N 91.87W
05/12/2012 M51 MPH GMZ455 LA AWOS
REPORT FROM FAA AWOS SCF LOCATED IN SOUTH MARSH ISLAND
BLOCK 268.
&&
$$
MOGGED
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KHGX [121642]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected
NWUS54 KHGX 121642
LSRHGX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1142 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0425 AM FLASH FLOOD SUGAR LAND 29.62N 95.62W
05/12/2012 FORT BEND TX LAW ENFORCEMENT
INTERSECTION OF GRAND PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 90 IMPASSABLE
IN ALL DIRECTIONS DUE TO HIGH WATER.
0425 AM FLASH FLOOD PECAN GROVE 29.63N 95.73W
05/12/2012 FORT BEND TX LAW ENFORCEMENT
WIDESPREAD STREET FLOODING WITHIN THE PECAN GROVE
SUBDIVISION. ROADS ARE IMPASSABLE.
0526 AM FLASH FLOOD LA MARQUE 29.37N 94.99W
05/12/2012 GALVESTON TX EMERGENCY MNGR
CLOSED ROADS IN THE POINTED MEADOWS SUBDIVISION OFF OF
1764. WATER IS ESTIMATED AT 3 FEET DEEP.
0600 AM FLASH FLOOD LEAGUE CITY 29.49N 95.11W
05/12/2012 GALVESTON TX OFFICIAL NWS OBS
MEASURED 5 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL OF 5.48 INCHES AT
HOUSTON/GALVESTON NWS OFFICE.
0600 AM FLASH FLOOD 3 NE RICHMOND 29.61N 95.73W
05/12/2012 FORT BEND TX COCORAHS
10.70 INCHES OF MEASURED RAINFALL.
0600 AM FLASH FLOOD PECAN GROVE 29.63N 95.73W
05/12/2012 FORT BEND TX EMERGENCY MNGR
9.74 INCHES OF RAINFALL RECORDED OVERNIGHT IN PECAN
GROVE.
0700 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 NNE LEAGUE CITY 29.50N 95.10W
05/12/2012 GALVESTON TX COCORAHS
5.57 INCHES OF RAINFALL.
0700 AM FLASH FLOOD SUGAR LAND 29.62N 95.62W
05/12/2012 FORT BEND TX EMERGENCY MNGR
8.25 INCHES OF RAINFALL MEASURED AT HULL FIELD. RUNWAY
WAS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.
0700 AM FLASH FLOOD RICHMOND 29.58N 95.76W
05/12/2012 FORT BEND TX EMERGENCY MNGR
8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL MEASURED IN WINDLOCH SUBDIVISION.
0730 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 SSW FRIENDSWOOD 29.50N 95.20W
05/12/2012 GALVESTON TX COCORAHS
6.13 INCHES OF MEASURED RAINFALL.
&&
$$
PKUHN
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LSRHGX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1142 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0425 AM FLASH FLOOD SUGAR LAND 29.62N 95.62W
05/12/2012 FORT BEND TX LAW ENFORCEMENT
INTERSECTION OF GRAND PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 90 IMPASSABLE
IN ALL DIRECTIONS DUE TO HIGH WATER.
0425 AM FLASH FLOOD PECAN GROVE 29.63N 95.73W
05/12/2012 FORT BEND TX LAW ENFORCEMENT
WIDESPREAD STREET FLOODING WITHIN THE PECAN GROVE
SUBDIVISION. ROADS ARE IMPASSABLE.
0526 AM FLASH FLOOD LA MARQUE 29.37N 94.99W
05/12/2012 GALVESTON TX EMERGENCY MNGR
CLOSED ROADS IN THE POINTED MEADOWS SUBDIVISION OFF OF
1764. WATER IS ESTIMATED AT 3 FEET DEEP.
0600 AM FLASH FLOOD LEAGUE CITY 29.49N 95.11W
05/12/2012 GALVESTON TX OFFICIAL NWS OBS
MEASURED 5 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL OF 5.48 INCHES AT
HOUSTON/GALVESTON NWS OFFICE.
0600 AM FLASH FLOOD 3 NE RICHMOND 29.61N 95.73W
05/12/2012 FORT BEND TX COCORAHS
10.70 INCHES OF MEASURED RAINFALL.
0600 AM FLASH FLOOD PECAN GROVE 29.63N 95.73W
05/12/2012 FORT BEND TX EMERGENCY MNGR
9.74 INCHES OF RAINFALL RECORDED OVERNIGHT IN PECAN
GROVE.
0700 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 NNE LEAGUE CITY 29.50N 95.10W
05/12/2012 GALVESTON TX COCORAHS
5.57 INCHES OF RAINFALL.
0700 AM FLASH FLOOD SUGAR LAND 29.62N 95.62W
05/12/2012 FORT BEND TX EMERGENCY MNGR
8.25 INCHES OF RAINFALL MEASURED AT HULL FIELD. RUNWAY
WAS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.
0700 AM FLASH FLOOD RICHMOND 29.58N 95.76W
05/12/2012 FORT BEND TX EMERGENCY MNGR
8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL MEASURED IN WINDLOCH SUBDIVISION.
0730 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 SSW FRIENDSWOOD 29.50N 95.20W
05/12/2012 GALVESTON TX COCORAHS
6.13 INCHES OF MEASURED RAINFALL.
&&
$$
PKUHN
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KLCH [121629]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected
NWUS54 KLCH 121629
LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1129 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0830 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 24 SSE INTRACOASTAL CIT 29.44N 92.06W
05/11/2012 E40.00 MPH GMZ455 LA PUBLIC
REPORT FROM PLATFORM IN SOUTH MARSH ISLAND BLOCK 217.
&&
$$
MOGGED
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LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1129 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0830 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 24 SSE INTRACOASTAL CIT 29.44N 92.06W
05/11/2012 E40.00 MPH GMZ455 LA PUBLIC
REPORT FROM PLATFORM IN SOUTH MARSH ISLAND BLOCK 217.
&&
$$
MOGGED
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KLCH [121626]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...correct Time...
NWUS54 KLCH 121626 CCA
LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECT TIME...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
826 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
830 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 24 SSE INTRACOASTAL CIT 29.44N 92.06W
05/11/2012 E40 MPH GMZ455 LA PUBLIC
REPORT FROM PLATFORM IN SOUTH MARSH ISLAND BLOCK 217.
&&
$$
MOGGED
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LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECT TIME...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
826 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
830 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 24 SSE INTRACOASTAL CIT 29.44N 92.06W
05/11/2012 E40 MPH GMZ455 LA PUBLIC
REPORT FROM PLATFORM IN SOUTH MARSH ISLAND BLOCK 217.
&&
$$
MOGGED
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 121622
SWODY1
SPC AC 121620
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
VALID 121630Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST LA AND
SOUTHERN MS...
...LA/MS...
BROAD CYCLONIC MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PRESENT TODAY OVER MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
TX. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED OVER LA
WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MS. DEWPOINTS
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST LA AND SOUTHERN MS ARE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. BROKEN CLOUDS IN THIS REGION ARE
ALLOWING SUBSTANTIAL HEATING...WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG
EXPECTED WITH MINIMAL CAP.
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST LA AND SOUTHERN
MS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK...BUT
A COMBINATION OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CAPE AND PROXIMITY TO
BOUNDARIES MAY RESULT IN ONE OR TWO BRIEF TORNADOES. THE MAIN RISK
HOWEVER WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS IN THE STRONGER STORMS.
THIS THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS
OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND INSTABILITY WEAKENS. REFER TO MCD NUMBER
794 FOR FURTHER SHORT-TERM DETAILS.
...CO/NM...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CO AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL NM. COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE A
RISK OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE STRONGEST CORES. THE THREAT
SHOULD WEAKEN SOON AFTER DARK.
..HART/SMITH.. 05/12/2012
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SWODY1
SPC AC 121620
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
VALID 121630Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST LA AND
SOUTHERN MS...
...LA/MS...
BROAD CYCLONIC MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PRESENT TODAY OVER MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
TX. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED OVER LA
WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MS. DEWPOINTS
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST LA AND SOUTHERN MS ARE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. BROKEN CLOUDS IN THIS REGION ARE
ALLOWING SUBSTANTIAL HEATING...WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG
EXPECTED WITH MINIMAL CAP.
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST LA AND SOUTHERN
MS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK...BUT
A COMBINATION OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CAPE AND PROXIMITY TO
BOUNDARIES MAY RESULT IN ONE OR TWO BRIEF TORNADOES. THE MAIN RISK
HOWEVER WILL BE LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS IN THE STRONGER STORMS.
THIS THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS
OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND INSTABILITY WEAKENS. REFER TO MCD NUMBER
794 FOR FURTHER SHORT-TERM DETAILS.
...CO/NM...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CO AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL NM. COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE A
RISK OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE STRONGEST CORES. THE THREAT
SHOULD WEAKEN SOON AFTER DARK.
..HART/SMITH.. 05/12/2012
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KLCH [121615]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KLCH 121615
LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1115 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1045 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 28 S BURNS POINT 29.17N 91.53W
05/11/2012 M45 MPH GMZ455 LA PUBLIC
REPORT FROM PLATFORM IN EUGENE ISLAND BLOCK 63.
&&
$$
MOGGED
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LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1115 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1045 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 28 S BURNS POINT 29.17N 91.53W
05/11/2012 M45 MPH GMZ455 LA PUBLIC
REPORT FROM PLATFORM IN EUGENE ISLAND BLOCK 63.
&&
$$
MOGGED
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KBOU [121609]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary
NWUS55 KBOU 121609
LSRBOU
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1009 AM MDT SAT MAY 12 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1000 AM SNOW 2 SSE BRECKENRIDGE 39.47N 106.03W
05/12/2012 M2.2 INCH SUMMIT CO TRAINED SPOTTER
1000 AM HEAVY SNOW N FAIRPLAY 39.23N 106.00W
05/12/2012 M6.0 INCH PARK CO TRAINED SPOTTER
0845 AM SNOW 3 N BLACK HAWK 39.84N 105.49W
05/12/2012 M4.1 INCH GILPIN CO TRAINED SPOTTER
0828 PM SNOW 4 ENE NEDERLAND 39.99N 105.45W
05/11/2012 M1.0 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER
0730 PM SNOW 3 SW LOVELAND 40.38N 105.11W
05/11/2012 M1.0 INCH LARIMER CO TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
JK
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LSRBOU
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1009 AM MDT SAT MAY 12 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1000 AM SNOW 2 SSE BRECKENRIDGE 39.47N 106.03W
05/12/2012 M2.2 INCH SUMMIT CO TRAINED SPOTTER
1000 AM HEAVY SNOW N FAIRPLAY 39.23N 106.00W
05/12/2012 M6.0 INCH PARK CO TRAINED SPOTTER
0845 AM SNOW 3 N BLACK HAWK 39.84N 105.49W
05/12/2012 M4.1 INCH GILPIN CO TRAINED SPOTTER
0828 PM SNOW 4 ENE NEDERLAND 39.99N 105.45W
05/11/2012 M1.0 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER
0730 PM SNOW 3 SW LOVELAND 40.38N 105.11W
05/11/2012 M1.0 INCH LARIMER CO TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
JK
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KBOU [121608]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary
NWUS55 KBOU 121608
LSRBOU
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1008 AM MDT SAT MAY 12 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1000 AM HEAVY SNOW N FAIRPLAY 39.23N 106.00W
05/12/2012 M6.0 INCH PARK CO TRAINED SPOTTER
0845 AM SNOW 3 N BLACK HAWK 39.84N 105.49W
05/12/2012 M4.1 INCH GILPIN CO TRAINED SPOTTER
0828 PM SNOW 4 ENE NEDERLAND 39.99N 105.45W
05/11/2012 M1.0 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER
0730 PM SNOW 3 SW LOVELAND 40.38N 105.11W
05/11/2012 M1.0 INCH LARIMER CO TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
JK
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LSRBOU
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1008 AM MDT SAT MAY 12 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1000 AM HEAVY SNOW N FAIRPLAY 39.23N 106.00W
05/12/2012 M6.0 INCH PARK CO TRAINED SPOTTER
0845 AM SNOW 3 N BLACK HAWK 39.84N 105.49W
05/12/2012 M4.1 INCH GILPIN CO TRAINED SPOTTER
0828 PM SNOW 4 ENE NEDERLAND 39.99N 105.45W
05/11/2012 M1.0 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER
0730 PM SNOW 3 SW LOVELAND 40.38N 105.11W
05/11/2012 M1.0 INCH LARIMER CO TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
JK
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KLCH [121541]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KLCH 121541
LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1041 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1039 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 64 S PECAN ISLAND 28.72N 92.33W
05/12/2012 E40 MPH GMZ472 XX PUBLIC
REPORT OF 40 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS FROM PLATFORM IN
VERMILION BLOCK 215.
&&
$$
MOGGED
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LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1041 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1039 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 64 S PECAN ISLAND 28.72N 92.33W
05/12/2012 E40 MPH GMZ472 XX PUBLIC
REPORT OF 40 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS FROM PLATFORM IN
VERMILION BLOCK 215.
&&
$$
MOGGED
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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0794
ACUS11 KWNS 121540
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121539
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-121745-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0794
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1039 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA...SRN MS...SWRN AL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 121539Z - 121745Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM SERN LA...SERN MS INTO
SWRN AL. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. PLANS ARE
TO INCLUDE A LOW END SLIGHT RISK AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO.
WW ISSUANCE WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON CHARACTER AND ORGANIZATION OF
DEVELOPING STORMS.
DISCUSSION...LATE THIS MORNING A COUPLE OF CONVECTIVE INDUCED MCVS
WERE EMBEDDED WITHIN BASE OF LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH. ONE WAS
LOCATED OVER SWRN MS MOVING NEWD AND ANOTHER OVER SWRN LA MOVING
EAST. WEAK SFC MESO LOW WAS CENTERED OVER CNTRL LA WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH SRN MS INTO SWRN AL. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EXTENDS SWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH SERN LA INTO THE NWRN
GULF. THE WARM SECTOR IS VERY MOIST WITH NEAR SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW 70S AND 1.6 INCH PW VALUES. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AND
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW 80S...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED...BUT MLCAPE SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY AOB 1800 J/KG DUE TO
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH A WEAK CAP IN PLACE...STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...THE INLAND PROPAGATING SEA BREEZE...AS WELL AS NEAR THE
WARM FRONT.
BELT OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW IS
CONTRIBUTING TO DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 30-35 KT OVER SRN LA INTO THE
BOOTHEEL OF MS AND SWRN AL. DEEP SHEAR IS WEAKER FARTHER TOWARD
CNTRL MS...BUT LOW LEVEL VEERING EXISTS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
OVERALL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR MULTICELL AND MARGINAL
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH A THREAT OF MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO.
..DIAL/HART.. 05/12/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON 31519048 32428951 32388828 31618778 30618817 29768997
29379075 30109145 30999104 31519048
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SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121539
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-121745-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0794
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1039 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA...SRN MS...SWRN AL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 121539Z - 121745Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM SERN LA...SERN MS INTO
SWRN AL. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. PLANS ARE
TO INCLUDE A LOW END SLIGHT RISK AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO.
WW ISSUANCE WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON CHARACTER AND ORGANIZATION OF
DEVELOPING STORMS.
DISCUSSION...LATE THIS MORNING A COUPLE OF CONVECTIVE INDUCED MCVS
WERE EMBEDDED WITHIN BASE OF LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH. ONE WAS
LOCATED OVER SWRN MS MOVING NEWD AND ANOTHER OVER SWRN LA MOVING
EAST. WEAK SFC MESO LOW WAS CENTERED OVER CNTRL LA WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH SRN MS INTO SWRN AL. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EXTENDS SWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH SERN LA INTO THE NWRN
GULF. THE WARM SECTOR IS VERY MOIST WITH NEAR SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW 70S AND 1.6 INCH PW VALUES. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AND
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW 80S...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED...BUT MLCAPE SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY AOB 1800 J/KG DUE TO
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH A WEAK CAP IN PLACE...STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...THE INLAND PROPAGATING SEA BREEZE...AS WELL AS NEAR THE
WARM FRONT.
BELT OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW IS
CONTRIBUTING TO DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 30-35 KT OVER SRN LA INTO THE
BOOTHEEL OF MS AND SWRN AL. DEEP SHEAR IS WEAKER FARTHER TOWARD
CNTRL MS...BUT LOW LEVEL VEERING EXISTS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
OVERALL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR MULTICELL AND MARGINAL
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH A THREAT OF MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO.
..DIAL/HART.. 05/12/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON 31519048 32428951 32388828 31618778 30618817 29768997
29379075 30109145 30999104 31519048
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KBOU [121455]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary
NWUS55 KBOU 121455
LSRBOU
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
854 AM MDT SAT MAY 12 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0845 AM SNOW 3 N BLACK HAWK 39.84N 105.49W
05/12/2012 M4.1 INCH GILPIN CO TRAINED SPOTTER
0828 PM SNOW 4 ENE NEDERLAND 39.99N 105.45W
05/11/2012 M1.0 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER
0815 PM SNOW N FAIRPLAY 39.23N 106.00W
05/11/2012 M2.0 INCH PARK CO TRAINED SPOTTER
ADDITIONAL INCH SINCE LAST REPORT.
0730 PM SNOW 3 SW LOVELAND 40.38N 105.11W
05/11/2012 M1.0 INCH LARIMER CO TRAINED SPOTTER
0632 PM SNOW N FAIRPLAY 39.23N 106.00W
05/11/2012 M1.0 INCH PARK CO TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
JK
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LSRBOU
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
854 AM MDT SAT MAY 12 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0845 AM SNOW 3 N BLACK HAWK 39.84N 105.49W
05/12/2012 M4.1 INCH GILPIN CO TRAINED SPOTTER
0828 PM SNOW 4 ENE NEDERLAND 39.99N 105.45W
05/11/2012 M1.0 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER
0815 PM SNOW N FAIRPLAY 39.23N 106.00W
05/11/2012 M2.0 INCH PARK CO TRAINED SPOTTER
ADDITIONAL INCH SINCE LAST REPORT.
0730 PM SNOW 3 SW LOVELAND 40.38N 105.11W
05/11/2012 M1.0 INCH LARIMER CO TRAINED SPOTTER
0632 PM SNOW N FAIRPLAY 39.23N 106.00W
05/11/2012 M1.0 INCH PARK CO TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
JK
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KLCH [121412]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KLCH 121412
LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
912 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0855 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 21 SW ROCKEFELLER WILDL 29.45N 92.99W
05/12/2012 M40 MPH GMZ452 LA AWOS
REPORT FROM FAA AWOS CMB IN EAST CAMERON BLOCK 47.
&&
$$
MOGGED
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LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
912 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0855 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 21 SW ROCKEFELLER WILDL 29.45N 92.99W
05/12/2012 M40 MPH GMZ452 LA AWOS
REPORT FROM FAA AWOS CMB IN EAST CAMERON BLOCK 47.
&&
$$
MOGGED
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KLCH [121409]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KLCH 121409
LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
909 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0855 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 61 S RUTHERFORD BEACH 28.91N 93.31W
05/12/2012 M47 MPH GMZ472 XX AWOS
REPORT FROM FAA AWOS CRH LOCATED IN WEST CAMERON BLOCK
368.
&&
$$
MOGGED
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LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
909 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0855 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 61 S RUTHERFORD BEACH 28.91N 93.31W
05/12/2012 M47 MPH GMZ472 XX AWOS
REPORT FROM FAA AWOS CRH LOCATED IN WEST CAMERON BLOCK
368.
&&
$$
MOGGED
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KLCH [121341]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KLCH 121341
LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
841 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0745 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 35 SSE SEA RIM STATE PA 29.23N 93.79W
05/12/2012 E50 MPH GMZ470 LA PUBLIC
REPORT FROM PLATFORM IN HIGH ISLAND BLOCK 167.
&&
$$
MOGGED
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LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
841 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0745 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 35 SSE SEA RIM STATE PA 29.23N 93.79W
05/12/2012 E50 MPH GMZ470 LA PUBLIC
REPORT FROM PLATFORM IN HIGH ISLAND BLOCK 167.
&&
$$
MOGGED
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KLCH [121330]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KLCH 121330
LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
830 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0855 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 38 SW BURNS POINT 29.12N 91.88W
05/11/2012 M41 MPH GMZ455 LA AWOS
REPORT FROM FAA AWOS SCF IN SOUTH MARSH ISLAND BLOCK 268.
&&
$$
MOGGED
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LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
830 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0855 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 38 SW BURNS POINT 29.12N 91.88W
05/11/2012 M41 MPH GMZ455 LA AWOS
REPORT FROM FAA AWOS SCF IN SOUTH MARSH ISLAND BLOCK 268.
&&
$$
MOGGED
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KLCH [121326]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KLCH 121326
LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
826 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1030 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 24 SSE INTRACOASTAL CIT 29.44N 92.06W
05/11/2012 E40 MPH GMZ455 LA PUBLIC
REPORT FROM PLATFORM IN SOUTH MARSH ISLAND BLOCK 217.
&&
$$
MOGGED
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LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
826 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1030 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 24 SSE INTRACOASTAL CIT 29.44N 92.06W
05/11/2012 E40 MPH GMZ455 LA PUBLIC
REPORT FROM PLATFORM IN SOUTH MARSH ISLAND BLOCK 217.
&&
$$
MOGGED
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KHGX [121327]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KHGX 121327
LSRHGX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
826 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0425 AM FLASH FLOOD PECAN GROVE 29.63N 95.73W
05/12/2012 FORT BEND TX LAW ENFORCEMENT
WIDESPREAD STREET FLOODING WITHIN THE PECAN GROVE
SUBDIVISION. ROADS ARE IMPASSABLE.
0425 AM FLASH FLOOD SUGAR LAND 29.62N 95.62W
05/12/2012 FORT BEND TX LAW ENFORCEMENT
INTERSECTION OF GRAND PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 90 IMPASSABLE
IN ALL DIRECTIONS DUE TO HIGH WATER.
0600 AM FLASH FLOOD 3 NE RICHMOND 29.61N 95.73W
05/12/2012 FORT BEND TX COCORAHS
10.70 INCHES OF MEASURED RAINFALL.
0600 AM FLASH FLOOD LEAGUE CITY 29.49N 95.11W
05/12/2012 GALVESTON TX OFFICIAL NWS OBS
MEASURED 5 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL OF 5.48 INCHES AT
HOUSTON/GALVESTON NWS OFFICE.
0600 AM FLASH FLOOD PECAN GROVE 29.63N 95.73W
05/12/2012 FORT BEND TX EMERGENCY MNGR
9.74 INCHES OF RAINFALL RECORDED OVERNIGHT IN PECAN
GROVE.
0700 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 NNE LEAGUE CITY 29.50N 95.10W
05/12/2012 GALVESTON TX COCORAHS
5.57 INCHES OF RAINFALL.
0700 AM FLASH FLOOD SUGAR LAND 29.62N 95.62W
05/12/2012 FORT BEND TX EMERGENCY MNGR
8.25 INCHES OF RAINFALL MEASURED AT HULL FIELD. RUNWAY
WAS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.
0700 AM FLASH FLOOD RICHMOND 29.58N 95.76W
05/12/2012 FORT BEND TX EMERGENCY MNGR
8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL MEASURED IN WINDLOCH SUBDIVISION.
0730 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 SSW FRIENDSWOOD 29.50N 95.20W
05/12/2012 GALVESTON TX COCORAHS
6.13 INCHES OF MEASURED RAINFALL.
&&
$$
PKUHN
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LSRHGX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
826 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0425 AM FLASH FLOOD PECAN GROVE 29.63N 95.73W
05/12/2012 FORT BEND TX LAW ENFORCEMENT
WIDESPREAD STREET FLOODING WITHIN THE PECAN GROVE
SUBDIVISION. ROADS ARE IMPASSABLE.
0425 AM FLASH FLOOD SUGAR LAND 29.62N 95.62W
05/12/2012 FORT BEND TX LAW ENFORCEMENT
INTERSECTION OF GRAND PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 90 IMPASSABLE
IN ALL DIRECTIONS DUE TO HIGH WATER.
0600 AM FLASH FLOOD 3 NE RICHMOND 29.61N 95.73W
05/12/2012 FORT BEND TX COCORAHS
10.70 INCHES OF MEASURED RAINFALL.
0600 AM FLASH FLOOD LEAGUE CITY 29.49N 95.11W
05/12/2012 GALVESTON TX OFFICIAL NWS OBS
MEASURED 5 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL OF 5.48 INCHES AT
HOUSTON/GALVESTON NWS OFFICE.
0600 AM FLASH FLOOD PECAN GROVE 29.63N 95.73W
05/12/2012 FORT BEND TX EMERGENCY MNGR
9.74 INCHES OF RAINFALL RECORDED OVERNIGHT IN PECAN
GROVE.
0700 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 NNE LEAGUE CITY 29.50N 95.10W
05/12/2012 GALVESTON TX COCORAHS
5.57 INCHES OF RAINFALL.
0700 AM FLASH FLOOD SUGAR LAND 29.62N 95.62W
05/12/2012 FORT BEND TX EMERGENCY MNGR
8.25 INCHES OF RAINFALL MEASURED AT HULL FIELD. RUNWAY
WAS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.
0700 AM FLASH FLOOD RICHMOND 29.58N 95.76W
05/12/2012 FORT BEND TX EMERGENCY MNGR
8.93 INCHES OF RAINFALL MEASURED IN WINDLOCH SUBDIVISION.
0730 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 SSW FRIENDSWOOD 29.50N 95.20W
05/12/2012 GALVESTON TX COCORAHS
6.13 INCHES OF MEASURED RAINFALL.
&&
$$
PKUHN
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KLCH [121314]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KLCH 121314
LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
813 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0835 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 13 SSE PECAN ISLAND 29.47N 92.37W
05/11/2012 M39 MPH GMZ452 LA AWOS
REPORT FROM FAA AWOS VNP IN VERMILION BLOCK 26.
&&
$$
MOGGED
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LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
813 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0835 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 13 SSE PECAN ISLAND 29.47N 92.37W
05/11/2012 M39 MPH GMZ452 LA AWOS
REPORT FROM FAA AWOS VNP IN VERMILION BLOCK 26.
&&
$$
MOGGED
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KLCH [121308]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KLCH 121308
LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
808 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0745 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 54 SSE PECAN ISLAND 28.90N 92.16W
05/11/2012 E40 MPH GMZ472 XX PUBLIC
REPORT FROM PLATFORM IN VERMILION BLOCK 171.
&&
$$
MOGGED
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LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
808 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0745 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 54 SSE PECAN ISLAND 28.90N 92.16W
05/11/2012 E40 MPH GMZ472 XX PUBLIC
REPORT FROM PLATFORM IN VERMILION BLOCK 171.
&&
$$
MOGGED
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 121242
SWODY1
SPC AC 121240
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
VALID 121300Z - 131200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...LOWER MS/TN VALLEY REGION THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...
A WEAKENING MIDLEVEL LOW NEAR TXK WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE INTO AN
OPEN WAVE WHILE MOVING SLOWLY EWD OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ONLY A
WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE MIDLEVEL WAVE IS PRESENT...AND
LIKEWISE...LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE IN THE WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN RATHER WEAK. MEANWHILE...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FROM PREVIOUS
DAYS AND ONGOING STORMS FROM THE TX COAST INTO WRN LA WILL CONTINUE
TO LIMIT LAPSE RATE PROFILES AND CONTRIBUTE TO SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD
COVER. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A WEAKLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WITH
ONLY MODEST LOW-MIDLEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR.
THE RICHEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE I-10 CORRIDOR...WHILE THE SOMEWHAT STRONGER
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ACCOMPANY A WEAK SURFACE WAVE THAT IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP NEWD FROM LA TO THE TN VALLEY BY TONIGHT. NEITHER
INSTABILITY NOR VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE PARTICULARLY STRONG BASED ON
THE AFOREMENTIONED REASONING...AND PHASING OF THE TWO WILL ALSO BE
POOR. AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE OF 500-1500
J/KG...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 30 KT...AND EFFECTIVE SRH OF
100-150 M2/S2 COULD SUPPORT A LOW END DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO RISK
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...THOUGH THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
INSUFFICIENT FOR A CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK AREA.
...SRN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
A WEAK LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NM/SRN CO...AS A SERIES OF DIFFUSE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESS
EWD/ESEWD FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES. DESPITE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S THIS
MORNING...DAYTIME HEATING AND THE ERN FRINGE OF THE STEEPER LAPSE
RATE PLUME WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON MLCAPE OF 250-500 J/KG.
DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS...WHEREAS THE LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME RISK OF HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH
A FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
..THOMPSON/HURLBUT.. 05/12/2012
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SWODY1
SPC AC 121240
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
VALID 121300Z - 131200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...LOWER MS/TN VALLEY REGION THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...
A WEAKENING MIDLEVEL LOW NEAR TXK WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE INTO AN
OPEN WAVE WHILE MOVING SLOWLY EWD OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ONLY A
WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE MIDLEVEL WAVE IS PRESENT...AND
LIKEWISE...LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE IN THE WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN RATHER WEAK. MEANWHILE...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FROM PREVIOUS
DAYS AND ONGOING STORMS FROM THE TX COAST INTO WRN LA WILL CONTINUE
TO LIMIT LAPSE RATE PROFILES AND CONTRIBUTE TO SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD
COVER. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A WEAKLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WITH
ONLY MODEST LOW-MIDLEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR.
THE RICHEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE I-10 CORRIDOR...WHILE THE SOMEWHAT STRONGER
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ACCOMPANY A WEAK SURFACE WAVE THAT IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP NEWD FROM LA TO THE TN VALLEY BY TONIGHT. NEITHER
INSTABILITY NOR VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE PARTICULARLY STRONG BASED ON
THE AFOREMENTIONED REASONING...AND PHASING OF THE TWO WILL ALSO BE
POOR. AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE OF 500-1500
J/KG...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 30 KT...AND EFFECTIVE SRH OF
100-150 M2/S2 COULD SUPPORT A LOW END DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO RISK
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...THOUGH THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
INSUFFICIENT FOR A CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK AREA.
...SRN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
A WEAK LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NM/SRN CO...AS A SERIES OF DIFFUSE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESS
EWD/ESEWD FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES. DESPITE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S THIS
MORNING...DAYTIME HEATING AND THE ERN FRINGE OF THE STEEPER LAPSE
RATE PLUME WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON MLCAPE OF 250-500 J/KG.
DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS...WHEREAS THE LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME RISK OF HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH
A FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
..THOMPSON/HURLBUT.. 05/12/2012
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KGRR [121159]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KGRR 121159
LSRGRR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
759 AM EDT SAT MAY 12 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0753 AM HAIL HASTINGS 42.65N 85.29W
05/12/2012 M0.25 INCH BARRY MI CO-OP OBSERVER
PEA SIZE HAIL AND A HEAVY DOWNPOUR WERE OBSERVED.
&&
$$
HOVING
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LSRGRR
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
759 AM EDT SAT MAY 12 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0753 AM HAIL HASTINGS 42.65N 85.29W
05/12/2012 M0.25 INCH BARRY MI CO-OP OBSERVER
PEA SIZE HAIL AND A HEAVY DOWNPOUR WERE OBSERVED.
&&
$$
HOVING
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
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KLCH [121030]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KLCH 121030
LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
530 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0337 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 4 SE SABINE PASS 29.69N 93.84W
05/11/2012 M42 MPH JEFFERSON TX OFFICIAL NWS OBS
REPORT FROM NOS TIDE GAGE TXPT2 AT TEXAS POINT.
&&
$$
MOGGED
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LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
530 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0337 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 4 SE SABINE PASS 29.69N 93.84W
05/11/2012 M42 MPH JEFFERSON TX OFFICIAL NWS OBS
REPORT FROM NOS TIDE GAGE TXPT2 AT TEXAS POINT.
&&
$$
MOGGED
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KLCH [121016]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KLCH 121016
LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
516 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0341 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 7 SW JOHNSON BAYOU 29.69N 93.73W
05/12/2012 M41 MPH GMZ450 LA PUBLIC
REPORT FROM PLATFORM IN WEST CAMERON BLOCK 17.
&&
$$
MOGGED
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LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
516 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0341 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 7 SW JOHNSON BAYOU 29.69N 93.73W
05/12/2012 M41 MPH GMZ450 LA PUBLIC
REPORT FROM PLATFORM IN WEST CAMERON BLOCK 17.
&&
$$
MOGGED
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KLCH [121004]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KLCH 121004
LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
503 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0448 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 3 SW CAMERON 29.77N 93.34W
05/12/2012 M45 MPH CAMERON LA C-MAN STATION
NOS TIDE GAUGE AT CALCASIEU PASS RECORDED WIND GUST TO 39
KNOTS.
&&
$$
JRUA
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LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
503 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0448 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 3 SW CAMERON 29.77N 93.34W
05/12/2012 M45 MPH CAMERON LA C-MAN STATION
NOS TIDE GAUGE AT CALCASIEU PASS RECORDED WIND GUST TO 39
KNOTS.
&&
$$
JRUA
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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS48 KWNS 120826
SWOD48
SPC AC 120826
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0326 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
VALID 151200Z - 201200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A QUIESCENT PATTERN FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL IN MID-MAY APPEARS LIKELY
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE INVOF THE
TX/MEXICO BORDER AT 12Z/TUE SHOULD EVOLVE EWD MID-WEEK...BUT WITH
WEAK FLOW FIELDS AND OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF
COAST. CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH SHOULD APPROACH THE WEST COAST LATE WEEK...BUT DAMPEN
THEREAFTER AS IT SHIFTS INLAND.
..GRAMS.. 05/12/2012
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SWOD48
SPC AC 120826
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0326 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
VALID 151200Z - 201200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A QUIESCENT PATTERN FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL IN MID-MAY APPEARS LIKELY
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE INVOF THE
TX/MEXICO BORDER AT 12Z/TUE SHOULD EVOLVE EWD MID-WEEK...BUT WITH
WEAK FLOW FIELDS AND OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF
COAST. CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH SHOULD APPROACH THE WEST COAST LATE WEEK...BUT DAMPEN
THEREAFTER AS IT SHIFTS INLAND.
..GRAMS.. 05/12/2012
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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS03 KWNS 120730
SWODY3
SPC AC 120728
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD BUT WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS...WITH A NARROW WRN RIDGE BEING IMPINGED BY
A COMPACT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENTERING NRN CA ON MON. MOST PROMINENT
IMPULSE E OF THE RIDGE SHOULD BE LOCATED IN PARTS OF AZ/NM AT
12Z/MON...WITH THIS FEATURE TRACKING SEWD TOWARDS THE BIG BEND OF TX
BY EARLY TUE.
...FAR WRN TX...SRN NM...
INFLUENCE OF CONVECTION DURING THE D2 PERIOD...WITH A TSTM CLUSTER
OR TWO POTENTIALLY ONGOING AT 12Z/MON...RENDERS UNCERTAINTY OVER THE
DEGREE OF DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION BY MON AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...ON
THE WRN/SRN PERIPHERY OF THE IMPULSE OVER THE SOUTHWEST...THE BELT
OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL W/NWLYS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY RELEGATED
INTO CHIHUAHUA/COAHUILA DURING THE DAY. IT APPEARS A NARROW CORRIDOR
OF SUPERCELL POTENTIAL COULD EVOLVE CLOSE TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
BUT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED CONCERNS...WILL DEFER TO LATER OUTLOOKS
FOR ANY SLIGHT RISK DELINEATION.
...LOWER MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS...
DESPITE A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR DAMPENING DURING D1 OF THE SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE OZARKS...MODEL GUIDANCE IS
HIGHLY VARIED WITH SUBSEQUENT EVOLUTION OF THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC
FIELDS BY MON. DIFFERENCES DISCUSSED IN THE D2 OUTLOOK REGARDING THE
OVERLAP OF STRONGER FLOW FIELDS AND GREATER BUOYANCY IN THE
ETA-BASED KF AND WRF-ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF COMPARED TO OTHER
GUIDANCE...APPEAR TO BE A RESULT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK THAT
PERSISTS THROUGH MON. STILL...GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR A MODEST
COMBINATION OF CAPE/SHEAR IN THE LESS AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE...LOW-END
SEVERE PROBABILITIES DO APPEAR WARRANTED.
..GRAMS.. 05/12/2012
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SWODY3
SPC AC 120728
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD BUT WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS...WITH A NARROW WRN RIDGE BEING IMPINGED BY
A COMPACT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENTERING NRN CA ON MON. MOST PROMINENT
IMPULSE E OF THE RIDGE SHOULD BE LOCATED IN PARTS OF AZ/NM AT
12Z/MON...WITH THIS FEATURE TRACKING SEWD TOWARDS THE BIG BEND OF TX
BY EARLY TUE.
...FAR WRN TX...SRN NM...
INFLUENCE OF CONVECTION DURING THE D2 PERIOD...WITH A TSTM CLUSTER
OR TWO POTENTIALLY ONGOING AT 12Z/MON...RENDERS UNCERTAINTY OVER THE
DEGREE OF DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION BY MON AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...ON
THE WRN/SRN PERIPHERY OF THE IMPULSE OVER THE SOUTHWEST...THE BELT
OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL W/NWLYS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY RELEGATED
INTO CHIHUAHUA/COAHUILA DURING THE DAY. IT APPEARS A NARROW CORRIDOR
OF SUPERCELL POTENTIAL COULD EVOLVE CLOSE TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
BUT GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED CONCERNS...WILL DEFER TO LATER OUTLOOKS
FOR ANY SLIGHT RISK DELINEATION.
...LOWER MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS...
DESPITE A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR DAMPENING DURING D1 OF THE SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE OZARKS...MODEL GUIDANCE IS
HIGHLY VARIED WITH SUBSEQUENT EVOLUTION OF THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC
FIELDS BY MON. DIFFERENCES DISCUSSED IN THE D2 OUTLOOK REGARDING THE
OVERLAP OF STRONGER FLOW FIELDS AND GREATER BUOYANCY IN THE
ETA-BASED KF AND WRF-ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF COMPARED TO OTHER
GUIDANCE...APPEAR TO BE A RESULT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK THAT
PERSISTS THROUGH MON. STILL...GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR A MODEST
COMBINATION OF CAPE/SHEAR IN THE LESS AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE...LOW-END
SEVERE PROBABILITIES DO APPEAR WARRANTED.
..GRAMS.. 05/12/2012
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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0793
ACUS11 KWNS 120641
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120640
LAZ000-TXZ000-120745-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0793
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX INCLUDING THE HOUSTON METRO AREA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 274...
VALID 120640Z - 120745Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 274 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DIMINISHING ACROSS WW 274...GIVEN WEAK LAPSE RATES AND DECREASING
BULK SHEAR. MEANWHILE...HEAVY RAINFALL RATES /1-1.5 INCH PER HOUR/
ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE GREATER CONCERN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
WITHIN A 25 MILE WIDE CORRIDOR FROM FORT BEND COUNTY EWD THROUGH SRN
HARRIS AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES.
DISCUSSION...AT 0545Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SLOW ENEWD
MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS ERN OK/NERN TX...WITH THE SRN EXTENT
OF APPARENT STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT AIDING IN MAINTAINING THE
ONGOING TSTMS OVER THE NRN PART OF WW 274 AND W-E THROUGH THE
HOUSTON METRO AREA. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A COMPOSITE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER TSTM ACTIVITY EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL GALVESTON COUNTY WWD THROUGH NRN BRAZORIA TO SRN FORT
BEND COUNTIES. A SWLY 20-30 KT LLJ FROM THE MIDDLE-UPPER TX COASTAL
AREA WILL PROVIDE A FEED OF MODERATE-STRONG MUCAPE /2000-3000 J PER
KG/ RESIDING OVER THE MIDDLE-SRN TX COAST INTO THE ONGOING EWD
TRAINING TSTMS FROM FORT BEND TO CHAMBERS COUNTIES. PW VALUES RANGE
FROM 1.5-1.75 INCH ACROSS SE TX/UPPER TX COAST AND PROPAGATION
VECTORS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO AROUND 10 KT BY 12Z. THESE
FACTORS SUGGEST TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER FORT
BEND/HARRIS COUNTIES AND TRAIN EWD...WITH LOCAL RAINFALL RATES UP TO
2 INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE.
FARTHER N OVER THE NRN PART OF WW 274...STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...BUT WEAKER AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND WEAK LAPSE RATES
SUGGEST THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LOW.
..PETERS.. 05/12/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...
LAT...LON 29519331 28779472 28689513 28789557 29349597 29779605
30279589 30889577 31379500 31119463 31189351 30379368
29789384 29759330 29519331
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SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120640
LAZ000-TXZ000-120745-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0793
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0140 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX INCLUDING THE HOUSTON METRO AREA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 274...
VALID 120640Z - 120745Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 274 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DIMINISHING ACROSS WW 274...GIVEN WEAK LAPSE RATES AND DECREASING
BULK SHEAR. MEANWHILE...HEAVY RAINFALL RATES /1-1.5 INCH PER HOUR/
ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE GREATER CONCERN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
WITHIN A 25 MILE WIDE CORRIDOR FROM FORT BEND COUNTY EWD THROUGH SRN
HARRIS AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES.
DISCUSSION...AT 0545Z...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SLOW ENEWD
MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS ERN OK/NERN TX...WITH THE SRN EXTENT
OF APPARENT STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT AIDING IN MAINTAINING THE
ONGOING TSTMS OVER THE NRN PART OF WW 274 AND W-E THROUGH THE
HOUSTON METRO AREA. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A COMPOSITE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER TSTM ACTIVITY EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL GALVESTON COUNTY WWD THROUGH NRN BRAZORIA TO SRN FORT
BEND COUNTIES. A SWLY 20-30 KT LLJ FROM THE MIDDLE-UPPER TX COASTAL
AREA WILL PROVIDE A FEED OF MODERATE-STRONG MUCAPE /2000-3000 J PER
KG/ RESIDING OVER THE MIDDLE-SRN TX COAST INTO THE ONGOING EWD
TRAINING TSTMS FROM FORT BEND TO CHAMBERS COUNTIES. PW VALUES RANGE
FROM 1.5-1.75 INCH ACROSS SE TX/UPPER TX COAST AND PROPAGATION
VECTORS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO AROUND 10 KT BY 12Z. THESE
FACTORS SUGGEST TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER FORT
BEND/HARRIS COUNTIES AND TRAIN EWD...WITH LOCAL RAINFALL RATES UP TO
2 INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE.
FARTHER N OVER THE NRN PART OF WW 274...STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...BUT WEAKER AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND WEAK LAPSE RATES
SUGGEST THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LOW.
..PETERS.. 05/12/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...
LAT...LON 29519331 28779472 28689513 28789557 29349597 29779605
30279589 30889577 31379500 31119463 31189351 30379368
29789384 29759330 29519331
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KABQ [120641]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary
NWUS55 KABQ 120641
LSRABQ
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1240 AM MDT SAT MAY 12 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0305 PM HAIL 4 S TIJERAS 35.03N 106.38W
05/11/2012 E0.88 INCH BERNALILLO NM NWS EMPLOYEE
0411 PM HAIL 5 NE ALBUQUERQUE 35.17N 106.57W
05/11/2012 E0.75 INCH BERNALILLO NM NWS EMPLOYEE
PASEO DEL NORTE AND LOUISIANA.
&&
EVENT NUMBER ABQ1201164 ABQ1201165
$$
SHY
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LSRABQ
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1240 AM MDT SAT MAY 12 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0305 PM HAIL 4 S TIJERAS 35.03N 106.38W
05/11/2012 E0.88 INCH BERNALILLO NM NWS EMPLOYEE
0411 PM HAIL 5 NE ALBUQUERQUE 35.17N 106.57W
05/11/2012 E0.75 INCH BERNALILLO NM NWS EMPLOYEE
PASEO DEL NORTE AND LOUISIANA.
&&
EVENT NUMBER ABQ1201164 ABQ1201165
$$
SHY
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KPUB [120554]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary
NWUS55 KPUB 120554
LSRPUB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1154 PM MDT FRI MAY 11 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1058 PM SNOW 4 WNW BUENA VISTA 38.86N 106.20W
05/11/2012 M3.8 INCH CHAFFEE CO TRAINED SPOTTER
LIGHT SNOW STILL FALLING.
1030 PM SNOW WOODLAND PARK 38.99N 105.05W
05/11/2012 M2.0 INCH TELLER CO TRAINED SPOTTER
1020 PM SNOW 2 WSW ROSITA 38.09N 105.36W
05/11/2012 M1.0 INCH CUSTER CO TRAINED SPOTTER
0800 PM SNOW 4 WNW BUENA VISTA 38.86N 106.20W
05/11/2012 M2.0 INCH CHAFFEE CO TRAINED SPOTTER
ACCUMULATED SINCE 430 PM. STILL SNOWING.
0700 PM SNOW 3 WSW TWIN LAKES 39.06N 106.43W
05/11/2012 M2.1 INCH LAKE CO COCORAHS
FELL SINCE 640 PM. STILL SNOWING HARD.
&&
THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.
SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT
INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
3.80 4 WNW BUENA VISTA CO CHAFFEE 1058 PM
LIGHT SNOW STILL FALLING.
2.10 3 WSW TWIN LAKES CO LAKE 0700 PM
FELL SINCE 640 PM. STILL SNOWING HARD.
2.00 4 WNW BUENA VISTA CO CHAFFEE 0800 PM
ACCUMULATED SINCE 430 PM. STILL SNOWING.
2.00 WOODLAND PARK CO TELLER 1030 PM
1.00 2 WSW ROSITA CO CUSTER 1020 PM
$$
KT
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LSRPUB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1154 PM MDT FRI MAY 11 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1058 PM SNOW 4 WNW BUENA VISTA 38.86N 106.20W
05/11/2012 M3.8 INCH CHAFFEE CO TRAINED SPOTTER
LIGHT SNOW STILL FALLING.
1030 PM SNOW WOODLAND PARK 38.99N 105.05W
05/11/2012 M2.0 INCH TELLER CO TRAINED SPOTTER
1020 PM SNOW 2 WSW ROSITA 38.09N 105.36W
05/11/2012 M1.0 INCH CUSTER CO TRAINED SPOTTER
0800 PM SNOW 4 WNW BUENA VISTA 38.86N 106.20W
05/11/2012 M2.0 INCH CHAFFEE CO TRAINED SPOTTER
ACCUMULATED SINCE 430 PM. STILL SNOWING.
0700 PM SNOW 3 WSW TWIN LAKES 39.06N 106.43W
05/11/2012 M2.1 INCH LAKE CO COCORAHS
FELL SINCE 640 PM. STILL SNOWING HARD.
&&
THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.
SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT
INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
3.80 4 WNW BUENA VISTA CO CHAFFEE 1058 PM
LIGHT SNOW STILL FALLING.
2.10 3 WSW TWIN LAKES CO LAKE 0700 PM
FELL SINCE 640 PM. STILL SNOWING HARD.
2.00 4 WNW BUENA VISTA CO CHAFFEE 0800 PM
ACCUMULATED SINCE 430 PM. STILL SNOWING.
2.00 WOODLAND PARK CO TELLER 1030 PM
1.00 2 WSW ROSITA CO CUSTER 1020 PM
$$
KT
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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS02 KWNS 120554
SWODY2
SPC AC 120553
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR CNTRL/ERN NM AND FAR W TX
ON SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING...
...SYNOPSIS...
A DAMPENING MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OVER THE SRN PLAINS SHOULD WEAKEN
FURTHER AS IT EVOLVES TOWARDS THE OH/TN VALLEYS THROUGH EARLY MON.
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION SHOULD TRACK FROM THE WRN GULF
COAST INTO PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH ALONG A SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM
FRONT. IN THE WEST...A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES
SHOULD AMPLIFY INTO THE ERN GREAT BASIN BY EARLY SUN AS A RIDGE
BUILDS IN THE WEST. THE IMPULSE WILL THEN TRACK MORE SLOWLY S/SEWD
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE SOUTHWEST BY EARLY MON.
...CNTRL/ERN NM...FAR W TX...
A BELT OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL W/NWLYS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE ERN GREAT BASIN...WITHIN A CONTINUED
UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT AND WITH 40S TO LOWER 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS ACROSS THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS...MODEST BUOYANCY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED TSTMS
FORMING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE REGION
LYING ON THE FRINGE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...30-40 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS PRIMARILY
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED SEVERE WIND DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FEW CLUSTERS SHOULD EVOLVE SEWD AND MAY YIELD
MARGINAL SEVERE PERSISTING INTO SAT NIGHT.
...DEEP SOUTH/TN VALLEY...
LOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS WITH REGARDS TO THE PHASING OF
THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC PARAMETERS WITH SUBSTANTIAL VARIATION AMONG
SREF GUIDANCE. ETA-BASED KF AND WRF-ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF ARE MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SLYS/MID-LEVEL SWLYS WHERE
SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY DEVELOPS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THIS REMAINS
IN CONTRAST TO THE MORE SUBDUED ETA-BASED BMJ AND WRF-NMM MEMBERS OF
THE SREF AND NAM/GFS GUIDANCE. GIVEN EXPECTED DAMPENING OF THE SRN
PLAINS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...THE DEEPENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL WIND
FIELD APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ON D1. WITH
POTENTIAL ANTECEDENT CONVECTION BREEDING UNCERTAINTY IN FRONTAL
LOCATION/CHARACTER AS WELL...WILL DEFER ON ANY POTENTIAL UPGRADE TO
SLIGHT RISK.
..GRAMS.. 05/12/2012
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SWODY2
SPC AC 120553
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR CNTRL/ERN NM AND FAR W TX
ON SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING...
...SYNOPSIS...
A DAMPENING MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OVER THE SRN PLAINS SHOULD WEAKEN
FURTHER AS IT EVOLVES TOWARDS THE OH/TN VALLEYS THROUGH EARLY MON.
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION SHOULD TRACK FROM THE WRN GULF
COAST INTO PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH ALONG A SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM
FRONT. IN THE WEST...A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES
SHOULD AMPLIFY INTO THE ERN GREAT BASIN BY EARLY SUN AS A RIDGE
BUILDS IN THE WEST. THE IMPULSE WILL THEN TRACK MORE SLOWLY S/SEWD
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE SOUTHWEST BY EARLY MON.
...CNTRL/ERN NM...FAR W TX...
A BELT OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL W/NWLYS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE ERN GREAT BASIN...WITHIN A CONTINUED
UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT AND WITH 40S TO LOWER 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS ACROSS THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS...MODEST BUOYANCY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED TSTMS
FORMING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE REGION
LYING ON THE FRINGE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...30-40 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS PRIMARILY
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED SEVERE WIND DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FEW CLUSTERS SHOULD EVOLVE SEWD AND MAY YIELD
MARGINAL SEVERE PERSISTING INTO SAT NIGHT.
...DEEP SOUTH/TN VALLEY...
LOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS WITH REGARDS TO THE PHASING OF
THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC PARAMETERS WITH SUBSTANTIAL VARIATION AMONG
SREF GUIDANCE. ETA-BASED KF AND WRF-ARW MEMBERS OF THE SREF ARE MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SLYS/MID-LEVEL SWLYS WHERE
SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY DEVELOPS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THIS REMAINS
IN CONTRAST TO THE MORE SUBDUED ETA-BASED BMJ AND WRF-NMM MEMBERS OF
THE SREF AND NAM/GFS GUIDANCE. GIVEN EXPECTED DAMPENING OF THE SRN
PLAINS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...THE DEEPENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL WIND
FIELD APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ON D1. WITH
POTENTIAL ANTECEDENT CONVECTION BREEDING UNCERTAINTY IN FRONTAL
LOCATION/CHARACTER AS WELL...WILL DEFER ON ANY POTENTIAL UPGRADE TO
SLIGHT RISK.
..GRAMS.. 05/12/2012
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KPUB [120554]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary
NWUS55 KPUB 120554
LSRPUB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1154 PM MDT FRI MAY 11 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1058 PM SNOW 4 WNW BUENA VISTA 38.86N 106.20W
05/11/2012 M3.8 INCH CHAFFEE CO TRAINED SPOTTER
LIGHT SNOW STILL FALLING.
1030 PM SNOW WOODLAND PARK 38.99N 105.05W
05/11/2012 M2.0 INCH TELLER CO TRAINED SPOTTER
1020 PM SNOW 2 WSW ROSITA 38.09N 105.36W
05/11/2012 M1.0 INCH CUSTER CO TRAINED SPOTTER
0800 PM SNOW 4 WNW BUENA VISTA 38.86N 106.20W
05/11/2012 M2.0 INCH CHAFFEE CO TRAINED SPOTTER
ACCUMULATED SINCE 430 PM. STILL SNOWING.
0700 PM SNOW 3 WSW TWIN LAKES 39.06N 106.43W
05/11/2012 M2.1 INCH LAKE CO COCORAHS
FELL SINCE 640 PM. STILL SNOWING HARD.
&&
$$
KT
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LSRPUB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1154 PM MDT FRI MAY 11 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1058 PM SNOW 4 WNW BUENA VISTA 38.86N 106.20W
05/11/2012 M3.8 INCH CHAFFEE CO TRAINED SPOTTER
LIGHT SNOW STILL FALLING.
1030 PM SNOW WOODLAND PARK 38.99N 105.05W
05/11/2012 M2.0 INCH TELLER CO TRAINED SPOTTER
1020 PM SNOW 2 WSW ROSITA 38.09N 105.36W
05/11/2012 M1.0 INCH CUSTER CO TRAINED SPOTTER
0800 PM SNOW 4 WNW BUENA VISTA 38.86N 106.20W
05/11/2012 M2.0 INCH CHAFFEE CO TRAINED SPOTTER
ACCUMULATED SINCE 430 PM. STILL SNOWING.
0700 PM SNOW 3 WSW TWIN LAKES 39.06N 106.43W
05/11/2012 M2.1 INCH LAKE CO COCORAHS
FELL SINCE 640 PM. STILL SNOWING HARD.
&&
$$
KT
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KPUB [120530]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KPUB 120530
LSRPUB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1130 PM MDT FRI MAY 11 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1058 PM SNOW 4 WNW BUENA VISTA 38.86N 106.20W
05/11/2012 M3.8 INCH CHAFFEE CO TRAINED SPOTTER
LIGHT SNOW STILL FALLING.
&&
$$
KT
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LSRPUB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1130 PM MDT FRI MAY 11 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1058 PM SNOW 4 WNW BUENA VISTA 38.86N 106.20W
05/11/2012 M3.8 INCH CHAFFEE CO TRAINED SPOTTER
LIGHT SNOW STILL FALLING.
&&
$$
KT
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 120450
SWODY1
SPC AC 120448
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2012
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...AN INITIALLY CLOSED LOW OVER THE
OZARKS WILL WEAKEN AS IT EVOLVES INTO AN OPEN SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN A FETCH OF SWLYS BETWEEN A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC
FLOW COVERING THE CNTRL/N-CNTRL STATES AND ROCKIES...AND A RIDGE
MOVING EWD ACROSS THE ERN STATES. THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL EXTEND SWD TO THE GULF COAST WHILE SHIFTING EWD THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
...LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/CNTRL GULF COAST STATES TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...
AS DCVA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
INTERACTS WITH A BROAD BAROCLINIC ZONE INVOF THE GULF COAST...A WEAK
SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME SOMEWHAT BETTER DEFINED OVER THE
SABINE RIVER VALLEY. THE LOW WILL DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF LA
AND MS IN RESPONSE TO LEADING WAA...WHICH WILL ALSO SUPPORT MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR ACCOMPANYING THE SFC LOW
MAY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS OWING TO 30-35 KT OF DEEP
SHEAR WITHIN A ZONE OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW ATTENDANT TO THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MODESTLY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...PARTICULARLY INVOF A NNEWD-ADVANCING WARM
FRONT...AMIDST SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S...COULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY
SVR WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO SUPPRESS A GREATER INLAND PENETRATION OF RICHER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND GREATER BUOYANCY THAT WILL CHARACTERIZE THE
MARINE LAYER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE
CASE GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK SFC LOW INTENSITY AND WEAKENING
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH. FURTHERMORE...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE STEEP...PARTLY OWING TO PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE
OVERTURNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT POCKETS OF INSOLATION/DIABATIC
HEATING MAY EVOLVE THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH COULD YIELD ONE OR MORE
CORRIDORS OF STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER SVR
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT/LOCATION OF SUCH
CORRIDORS IS TOO LOW FOR HIGHER SVR PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
...PORTIONS OF SRN CO/CENTRAL NM/PARTS OF THE TRANS-PECOS REGION OF
SWRN TX THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SSEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITHIN THE
AFOREMENTIONED BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW. ASCENT LEADING THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH MOIST/MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONALLY...DEEP
SHEAR...ENHANCED BY AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED/STRONGER TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY
SVR HAIL/WIND.
...DEEP SOUTH TX/RIO GRANDE VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
ASCENT ALONG A DIFFUSE FRONT AND UPSLOPE TRAJECTORIES COULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
THE ANTICIPATED WEAK ASCENT YIELDS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE OCCURRENCE OF CONVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT MODERATE TO PERHAPS STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST
MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/WIND.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE OCCURRENCE OF CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
TOO LOW FOR ANY SVR PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
..COHEN/DARROW.. 05/12/2012
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SWODY1
SPC AC 120448
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2012
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...AN INITIALLY CLOSED LOW OVER THE
OZARKS WILL WEAKEN AS IT EVOLVES INTO AN OPEN SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED WITHIN A FETCH OF SWLYS BETWEEN A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC
FLOW COVERING THE CNTRL/N-CNTRL STATES AND ROCKIES...AND A RIDGE
MOVING EWD ACROSS THE ERN STATES. THE AXIS OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL EXTEND SWD TO THE GULF COAST WHILE SHIFTING EWD THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
...LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/CNTRL GULF COAST STATES TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...
AS DCVA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
INTERACTS WITH A BROAD BAROCLINIC ZONE INVOF THE GULF COAST...A WEAK
SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME SOMEWHAT BETTER DEFINED OVER THE
SABINE RIVER VALLEY. THE LOW WILL DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF LA
AND MS IN RESPONSE TO LEADING WAA...WHICH WILL ALSO SUPPORT MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR ACCOMPANYING THE SFC LOW
MAY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS OWING TO 30-35 KT OF DEEP
SHEAR WITHIN A ZONE OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW ATTENDANT TO THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MODESTLY STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...PARTICULARLY INVOF A NNEWD-ADVANCING WARM
FRONT...AMIDST SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S...COULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY
SVR WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO SUPPRESS A GREATER INLAND PENETRATION OF RICHER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND GREATER BUOYANCY THAT WILL CHARACTERIZE THE
MARINE LAYER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE
CASE GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK SFC LOW INTENSITY AND WEAKENING
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH. FURTHERMORE...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE STEEP...PARTLY OWING TO PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE
OVERTURNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT POCKETS OF INSOLATION/DIABATIC
HEATING MAY EVOLVE THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH COULD YIELD ONE OR MORE
CORRIDORS OF STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOMEWHAT HIGHER SVR
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT/LOCATION OF SUCH
CORRIDORS IS TOO LOW FOR HIGHER SVR PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
...PORTIONS OF SRN CO/CENTRAL NM/PARTS OF THE TRANS-PECOS REGION OF
SWRN TX THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SSEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITHIN THE
AFOREMENTIONED BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW. ASCENT LEADING THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH MOIST/MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONALLY...DEEP
SHEAR...ENHANCED BY AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW ACCOMPANYING
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED/STRONGER TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY
SVR HAIL/WIND.
...DEEP SOUTH TX/RIO GRANDE VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
ASCENT ALONG A DIFFUSE FRONT AND UPSLOPE TRAJECTORIES COULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
THE ANTICIPATED WEAK ASCENT YIELDS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE OCCURRENCE OF CONVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT MODERATE TO PERHAPS STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST
MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/WIND.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE OCCURRENCE OF CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
TOO LOW FOR ANY SVR PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
..COHEN/DARROW.. 05/12/2012
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KPUB [120433]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KPUB 120433
LSRPUB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1032 PM MDT FRI MAY 11 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1030 PM SNOW WOODLAND PARK 38.99N 105.05W
05/11/2012 M2.0 INCH TELLER CO TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
KT
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LSRPUB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1032 PM MDT FRI MAY 11 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1030 PM SNOW WOODLAND PARK 38.99N 105.05W
05/11/2012 M2.0 INCH TELLER CO TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
KT
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KPUB [120422]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KPUB 120422
LSRPUB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1022 PM MDT FRI MAY 11 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1020 PM SNOW 2 WSW ROSITA 38.09N 105.36W
05/11/2012 M1.0 INCH CUSTER CO TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
KT
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LSRPUB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1022 PM MDT FRI MAY 11 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1020 PM SNOW 2 WSW ROSITA 38.09N 105.36W
05/11/2012 M1.0 INCH CUSTER CO TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
KT
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