ACUS02 KWNS 121732
SWODY2
SPC AC 121730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SAT MAY 12 2012
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NM/SOUTHWEST TX...
...CENTRAL/EASTERN NM AND FAR WEST TX...
AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES ON SUNDAY...INCREASING DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT/VERTICAL
SHEAR IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME WESTWARD TRANSITION/INCREASE OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR AN UPSWING IN TSTMS WITH SOME
POTENTIALLY STRONG/SEVERE. TSTMS SHOULD ESPECIALLY INCREASE
ALONG/EAST OF THE INTERIOR NM MOUNTAINS/HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTHWEST TX. EVEN WITH
RELATIVELY MODEST BUOYANCY...30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL...WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE AS WELL. MULTIPLE/AT LEAST LOOSELY
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS SHOULD EVOLVE AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD SUNDAY
EVENING/LATE NIGHT.
...DEEP SOUTH/TN VALLEY...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LIMITED IN SPECIFIC DETAILS AMID DEGREE OF
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES...BUT A CONTINUED GENERAL WEAKENING
TREND SEEMS LIKELY WITH AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MIGRATING UPPER TROUGH
TOWARD THE TN VALLEY. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...AND A RELATIVELY
MODEST COMBINATION OF VERTICAL SHEAR/EXPECTED DESTABILIZATION
ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT AWAY FROM COASTAL AREAS...ONLY LOW
SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE CURRENTLY WARRANTED FOR WHAT IS ANTICIPATED
TO BE MAINLY A MARGINAL SEVERE WIND/PERHAPS TORNADO THREAT.
..GUYER.. 05/12/2012
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